Deep learning (DL) algorithms have recently emerged from machine learning and soft computing techniques. Since then, several deep learning (DL) algorithms have been recently introduced to scientific communities and are applied in various application domains. Today the usage of DL has become essential due to their intelligence, efficient learning, accuracy and robustness in model building. However, in the scientific literature, a comprehensive list of DL algorithms has not been introduced yet. This paper provides a list of the most popular DL algorithms, along with their applications domains.

Accurate electricity price forecasting has become a substantial requirement since the liberalization of the electricity markets. Due to the challenging nature of the electricity prices, which includes high volatility, sharp price spikes and seasonality, various types of electricity price forecasting models still compete and can not outperform each other consistently. Neural Networks have been successfully used in machine learning problems and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) have been proposed to address time-dependent learning problems. In particular, Long Short Term Memory and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) are tailor-made for time series price estimation. In this paper, we propose to use Gated Recurrent Units as a new technique for electricity price forecasting. We have trained a variety of algorithms with rolling 3-year window and compared the results with the RNNs. In our experiments, 3-layered GRUs outperformed all other neural network structures and state of the art statistical techniques in a statistically significant manner in the Turkish day-ahead market.

The Bayes filters, such as Kalman and particle filters, have been used in sensor fusion to integrate two sources of information and obtain the best estimate of the unknowns. Efficient integration of multiple sensors requires deep knowledge of their error sources and it is not trivial for complicated sensors, such as Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU). Therefore, IMU error modelling and efficient integration of IMU and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations has remained a challenge. In this paper, we develop deep Kalman filter to model and remove IMU errors and consequently, improve the accuracy of IMU positioning. In other words, we add modelling step to the prediction and update steps of Kalman filter and the IMU error model is learned during integration. Therefore, our deep Kalman filter outperforms Kalman filter and reaches higher accuracy.

Despite advances in algorithms and computational platforms, de-novo genome assembly remains a challenging process. Due to the constant innovation in sequencing technologies (Sanger, SOLiD, Illumina, 454, PacBio and Oxford Nanopore), genome assembly has evolved to respond to the changes in input data type. This paper includes a broad and comparative review of the most recent short-read, long-read and hybrid assembly techniques. In this review, we provide (1) an algorithmic description of the important processes in the workflow that introduces fundamental concepts and improvements; (2) a review of existing software that explains possible options for genome assembly; and (3) a comparison of the accuracy and the performance of existing methods executed on the same computer using the same processing capabilities and using the same set of real and synthetic datasets. Such evaluation allows a fair and precise comparison of accuracy in all aspects. As a result, this paper identifies both the strengths and weaknesses of each method. This comparative review is unique in providing a detailed comparison of a broad spectrum of cutting-edge algorithms and methods.

The radar sensor described realizes healthcare monitoring capable of detecting subject chest-wall movement caused by cardiopulmonary activities, and wirelessly estimating the respiration and heartbeat rates of the subject without attaching any devices to the body. Conventional single-tone Doppler radar can only capture Doppler signatures because of a lack of bandwidth information with noncontact sensors. In contrast, we take full advantage of impulse radio ultra-wideband (IR-UWB) radar to achieve low power consumption and convenient portability, with a flexible detection range and desirable accuracy. A noise reduction method based on improved ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and a vital sign separation method based on the continuous-wavelet transform (CWT) are proposed jointly to improve the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) in order to acquire accurate respiration and heartbeat rates. Experimental results illustrate that respiration and heartbeat signals can be extracted accurately under different conditions. This noncontact healthcare sensor system proves the commercial feasibility and considerable accessibility of using compact IR-UWB radar for emerging biomedical applications.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have made a huge impact in the field of machine learning by providing unbeatable humanlike performance to solve real-world problems such as image processing and natural language processing (NLP). Convolutional neural network (CNN) and recurrent neural network (RNN) are two typical architectures that are widely used to solve such problems. Time sequence-dependent problems are generally very challenging, and RNN architectures have made an enormous improvement in a wide range of machine learning problems with sequential input involved. In this paper, different types of RNN architectures are compared. Special focus is put on two well-known gated-RNN’s Long Term Short Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). We evaluated these models on the task of force estimation system in pouring. In this study, four different models including multi-layers LSTM, multi-layers GRU, single-layer LSTM and single-layer GRU) were created and trained. The result suggests that multi-layer GRU outperformed other three models.

Because this issue journal is dedicated to Gelatin here we present a few applications of gelatin in the field of optics. It is understood that optics is the science that studies the production, propagation, interaction and detection of light. Regarding the detection there are some materials sensitive to light (photosensitive) that are used like photomultipliers, CCD’s, crystals, two dimension (2D) materials and more. Among the 2D materials the most popular through several centuries has been gelatin based photographic emulsion that records spatial distributions of light. More recently (1970) films made of Gelatin with Dichromate (DCG) and dyes have been used. We describe some characteristics and applications of these two photosensitive materials. Also we describe examples where gelatin is used as Relative Humidity (RH) sensor and in the fabrication of optical elements based on gelatin. This article is intended to researchers outside the optics community.

Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), which block the activity of cyclooxygenase (COX) isoenzymes and inhibit the synthesis of prostaglandin, have been used for pain relief. We have developed a method to separate a mixture of three NSAIDs, such as aspirin, paracetamol, and naproxen, using reverse-phase high-performance liquid chromatography (RP-HPLC). An isocratic mobile phase consisting of acidic water and acetonitrile was selected to run at a low flow rate, such as 0.8 mL/min. The mixture of three NSAIDs was injected at a low volume into a C18 column that was 150 mm in length and characterized using a UV detector at 230 nm. We identified three peaks in the chromatogram indicating the three compounds. The elution time of the peaks was less than 10 minutes. To identify multiple peaks on the isocratic flow using a short column, further studies are required regarding the proposed method to generate microfluidic devices for nanoLC.

A reinforcement learning algorithm is proposed to improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting (STLF) in this article. The proposed model integrates radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), support vector regression (SVR), and adaptive annealing learning algorithm (AALA). In the proposed methodology, firstly, the initial structure of RBFNN is determined by using SVR. Then, an AALA with time-varying learning rates is used to optimize the initial parameters of SVR-RBFNN (AALA-SVR-RBFNN). In order to overcome the stagnation for searching optimal RBFNN, a particle swarm optimization (PSO) is applied to simultaneously find promising learning rates in AALA. Finally, the short-term load demands are predicted by using the optimal RBFNN. The performance of the proposed methodology is verified on the actual load dataset from Taiwan Power Company (TPC). Simulation results reveal that the proposed AALA-SVR-RBFNN can achieve a better load forecasting precision as compared to various RBFNNs.

We consider the financial planning problem of a retiree wishing to enter a retirement village at a future uncertain date. The date of entry is determined by the retiree's utility and bequest maximisation problem within the context of uncertain future health states. In addition, the retiree must choose optimal consumption, investment, bequest and purchase of insurance products prior to her full annuitisation on entry to the retirement village. A hyperbolic absolute risk-aversion (HARA) utility function is used to allow necessary consumption for basic living and medical costs. The retirement village will typically require an initial deposit upon entry. This threshold wealth requirement leads to exercising the replication of an American put option at the uncertain stopping time. From our numerical results, active insurance and annuity markets are shown to be a critical aspect in retirement planning.

This paper presents the development and implementation of a machine learning model to estimate the future price of commodities in the Brazilian market from technical analysis indicators. For this, two databases were obtained regarding the commodities sugar, cotton, corn, soybean and wheat, which were submitted to the steps of data cleaning, pre-processing and subdivision. From the pre-processed data, recurrent neural networks of the long short-term memory type were used to perform the prediction of data in the interval of 1 and 3 days ahead. These models were evaluated using mean squared error, obtaining an accuracy between 0.00010 and 0.00037 on the test data for 1 day ahead and 0.00015 to 0.00041 for 3 days ahead. However, based on the results obtained, it can be stated that the developed model obtained a good prediction performance for all commodities evaluated.

Deep learning has recently attracted much attention due to its excellent performance in processing audio, image, and video data. However, few studies are devoted to the field of automatic modulation classification (AMC). It is one of the most well-known research topics in communication signal recognition, which remains challenging for traditional methods due to the complex disturbance from other sources. This paper proposes a heterogeneous deep model fusion (HDMF) method to solve the problem in a unified framework. The contributions include: 1) The convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) are combined by two different ways without prior knowledge involved; 2) A large database, including eleven types of single-carrier modulation signals with various noises as well as a fading channel, is collected with various signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) based on a real geographical environment; and 3) Experimental results demonstrate that HDMF is super capable of copping with the AMC problem, and achieves much better performance when compared with the independent network. The source code and the database will be publically available.

The prevalence of internet gaming disorders (IGD) is considerably high among youth, especially with social isolation imposed by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. IGD adversely affects mental health, quality of life, and academic performance. The Internet Gaming Disorder Scale (IGDS9-SF) is designed to detect IGD according to DSM-IV diagnostic criteria. However, inconsistent results are reported on its capacity to diagnose IGD evenly across different cultures. To ensure the suitability of the IGDS9-SF as a global measure of IGD, this study examined the psychometric properties of the IGDS9-SF in a sample of Sri Lankan university students (N = 322, mean age =17.2 ± 0.6, range = 16-18 years, 56.5% males) and evaluated its measurement invariance across samples from Sri Lanka, Turkey, Australia, and the USA. Among Sri Lankan students, a unidimensional structure expressed good fit, invariance across different groups (e.g., gender, ethnicity, and income), adequate criterion validity (strong correlation with motives of internet gaming, daily gaming duration, and sleep quality), and good reliability (alpha = 0.81). Males and online multiplayers expressed higher IGD levels, greater time spent gaming, and more endorsement of gaming motives (e.g., Social and Coping) than females and offline players. Across countries, the IGDS9-SF was invariant at the configural, metric, and scalar levels, albeit strict invariance was not maintained. The lowest and highest IGD levels were reported among Turkish and American respondents, respectively. In conclusion, the IGDS9-SF can be reliably used to measure IGD among Sri Lankan youth. Because the scale holds scalar invariance across countries, its scores can be used to compare IGD levels in the studied countries.

In this paper, we consider a fourth-order suspension bridge equation with nonlinear damping term |u_t|^m-2u_t and source term |u|^p-2u. We give necessary and sufficient condition for global existence and energy decay results without considering the relation between m and p. Moreover, when p>m, we give sufficient condition for finite time blow-up of solutions. The lower bound of the blow-up time T_max is also established. It worth to mention that our obtained results extend the recent results of Wang (J. Math. Anal. Appl., 2014) to the nonlinear damping case.

The monitoring of sick newborns is a challenging task that health care providers in Neonatal Intensive Care Units (NICU) must contend with each day. Conventionally, newborns are monitored via probes that are affixed to their skin and attached to processing monitors (Fig.1). However, an alternative exists in contactless imaging to record such physiological signals (Physio-Markers), surface changes and internal structures which can be used independently of, or in conjunction with conventional monitors. Advantages of contactless monitoring methods include: i) quick data generation; ii) lack of contact with skin, which reduces skin breakdown and decreases risk of infection; and iii) minimizing the number of probes and monitors affixed to the skin, which allows greater body surface-area for other care. This paper is an attempt to build a foundation for and to provide a vision of the potential neonatal clinical applications of technologies that use non-contact modalities such as Visible Light Imaging (VLI), Near InfraRed Spectrum (NIRS), and Thermal Imaging (TI) using InfraRed Spectrum (IRS).

Over the past decades, overweight and obesity has become a global epidemic and the leading threat for death. To prevent the serious risk, an overweight or obese individual must apply a long-term weight-management strategy to control food intake and physical activities, which is however, not easy. Recently, with the advances of information technology, more and more people can use wearable devices and smartphones to obtain physical activity information, while they can also access various health-related information from Internet online social networks (OSNs). Nevertheless, there is a lack of an integrated approach that can combine these two methods in an efficient way. In this paper, we address this issue and propose a novel mobile-social framework for health recognition and recommendation, namely, H-Rec². The main ideas of H-Rec² include (1) to recognize the individual's health status using smartphone as a general platform, and (2) to recommend physical activity and food intake based on personal health information, life science principles, and health-related information obtained from OSNs. To demonstrate the potentials of the H-Rec² framework, we develop a prototype that consists of four important components: (1) an activity recognition module that senses physical activity using accelerometer, (2) a health status modeling module that applies a novel algorithm to generate personalized health status index, (3) a restaurant information collection module that collects relevant information from OSN, and (4) a restaurant recommendation module that provides personalized and context-aware recommendation. To evaluate the prototype, we conduct both objective and subjective experiments, which confirm the performance and effectiveness of the proposed system.

Increased sugar intake is implicated in Type-2 diabetes and fatty liver disease. Mechanisms by which glucose and fructose components promote these conditions are unclear. We hypothesize that alterations in intestinal metabolite and microbiota profiles specific to each monosaccharide are involved. Two groups of six adult C57BL/6 mice were fed for 10-weeks with a diet where either glucose or fructose was the sole carbohydrate component (G and F, respectively). A third group was fed with normal chow (N). Fecal metabolites were profiled every 2-weeks by ¹H NMR and microbial composition was analysed by real-time PCR (qPCR). Glucose tolerance was also periodically assessed. N, G and F mice had similar weight gains and glucose tolerance. Multivariate analysis of NMR profiles indicated that F mice were separated from both N and G, with decreased butyrate and glutamate and increased fructose, succinate, taurine, tyrosine and xylose. Compared to N and G, F mice showed a shift in microbe populations from gram-positive Lactobacillus spp. to gram-negative Enterobacteria species. Substitution of normal chow carbohydrate mixture by either pure glucose or fructose for 10 weeks did not alter adiposity or glucose tolerance. However, F G and N mice generated distinctive fecal metabolite signatures with incomplete fructose absorption as a dominant feature of F mice.

Panel data of our interest consist of a moderate number of panels, while the panels contain a small number of observations. An estimator of common breaks in panel means without a boundary issue for this kind of scenario is proposed. In particular, the novel estimator is able to detect a common break point even when the change happens immediately after the first time point or just before the last observation period. Another advantage of the elaborated change point estimator is that it results in the last observation in situations with no structural breaks. The consistency of the change point estimator in panel data is established. The results are illustrated through a simulation study. As a by-product of the developed estimation technique, a theoretical utilization for correlation structure estimation, hypothesis testing, and bootstrapping in panel data is demonstrated. A practical application to non-life insurance is presented as well.

Agavins consumption has lead to accelerate body weight loss in mice. We investigated the changes on cecal microbiota and short chain fatty acids (SCFA) associated to body weight loss in overweight mice. Firstly, mice were fed with standard (ST5) or high fat (HF5) diet for 5 weeks. Secondly, overweight mice were shifted to standard diet alone (HF-ST10) or supplemented with agavins (HF-ST+A10) or oligofructose (HF-ST+O10), five more weeks. Cecal contents were collected before and after supplementation to determine microbiota and SCFA concentrations. At the end of first phase, HF5 mice showed a significant increase of body weight, which was associated with reduction of cecal microbiota diversity (PD whole tree; non-parametric t-test, P < 0.05), increased Firmicutes/Bacteroidetes ratio and reduced SCFA concentrations (t-test, P < 0.05). After diet shifted, HF-ST10 normalized its microbiota, increase its diversity and SCFA levels, whereas agavins (HF-ST+A10) or oligofructose (HF-ST+O10) led to partial microbiota restoration, with normalization of the Firmicutes/Bacteroides ratio as well as higher SCFA levels (P < 0.1). Moreover, agavins noticeably enriched Klebsiella and Citrobacter (LDA > 3.0); this enrichment has not been reported previously under a prebiotic treatment. In conclusion, agavins or oligofructose modulated cecal microbiota composition, reduced extent of diversity and increased SCFA. Furthermore, identification of bacteria enriched by agavins, opens opportunities to explore new probiotics.

Probiotics have been used to ameliorate gastrointestinal symptoms since ancient times. Over the past 40 years, probiotics have been shown to exert major effects on the immune system, both in vivo and in vitro. This interaction is clearly linked to gut microbes, their polysaccharide antigens, and key metabolites produced by these bacteria. At least four metabolic pathways have been implicated in mechanistic studies of probiotics, based on carefully studied animal models. Microbial-immune system crosstalk has been linked to short chain fatty acid production and signaling, tryptophan metabolism and the activation of aryl hydrocarbon receptors, nucleoside signaling in the gut, and activation of the intestinal histamine-2 receptor. Several randomized controlled trials have now shown that microbial modification by probiotics may improve gastrointestinal symptoms and multi-organ inflammation in rheumatoid arthritis, ulcerative colitis, and multiple sclerosis. Future work will need to carefully assess safety issues, selection of optimal strains and combinations, and attempts to prolong the duration of colonization of beneficial microbes.

Fluctuating stock prices make it difficult for investors to see investment opportunities. One tool that can help investors overcome this is forecasting techniques. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is one of deep learning methods used in forecasting time series. The training and success of deep learning is strongly influenced by the selection of hyperparameters. This research uses a hybrid method between the Genetic Algorithm (GA) and LSTM to find a suitable model for predicting stock prices. GA is used in optimizing the architecture such as the number of epochs, window size, and the number of LSTM units in the hidden layer. Tuning optimizer is also carried out using several optimizers to achieve the best value. From method that has been applied, it shows that the method has a good level of accuracy with MAPE values below 10% in every optimizer used. The error rate generated is quite low, in case-1 with a minimum RMSE value of 93.03 and 94.40, & in case-2 with an RMSE value of 104.99 and 150.06 during training and testing. A fairly stable and small value is generated by setting it using the Adam Optimizer.

Exponential increase in mobile video delivery will continue with the demand for higher resolution, multi-view and large-scale multicast video services. Novel fifth generation (5G) 3GPP New Radio (NR) standard will bring a number of new opportunities for optimizing video delivery across both 5G core and radio access network. One of the promising approaches for video quality adaptation, throughput enhancement and erasure protection is the use of packet-level random linear network coding (RLNC). In this work, we discuss the integration of RLNC into the 5G NR standard, building upon the ideas and opportunities identified in 4G LTE. We explicitly identify and discuss in detail novel 5G NR features that provide support for RLNC-based video delivery in 5G, thus pointing out to the promising avenues for future research.

The capacity and the mechanism of the adsorption of aqueous barium (Ba), cobalt (Co), strontium (Sr) and zinc (Zn) by Ecuadorian (NatAllo) and synthetic (SynAllo-1 and SynAllo-2) allophanes were studied as a function of contact time, pH and metal ion concentration using kinetic and equilibrium experiments. The mineralogy, nano-structure and chemical composition of the allophanes were characterized by X-ray diffraction, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, transmission electron microscopy and specific surface area analyses. The evolution of adsorption fitted to a pseudo-first-order reaction kinetics, where equilibrium between aqueous metal ions and allophane was reached within < 10 min. The metal ion removal efficiencies varied from 0.7 to 99.7 % at pH 4.0 to 8.5. At equilibrium, the adsorption behavior is better described by the Langmuir model than by the Dubinin-Radushkevich model, yielding sorption capacities of 10.6, 17.2 and 38.6 mg/g for Ba^(2+), 12.4, 19.3 and 29.0 mg/g for HCoO_2^-, 7.2, 15.9 and 34.4 mg/g for Sr^(2+) and 20.9, 26.9 and 36.9 mg/g for Zn^(2+), respectively, by NatAllo, SynAllo-2 and SynAllo-1. The uptake mechanism is based on a physical adsorption process. Allophane holds great potential to remove aqueous metal ions and could be used instead of zeolites, montmorillonite, carbonates and phosphates for wastewater treatment.

The magnetic properties of RCo3B2 compounds, with heavy rare earths, are investigated by using magnetic measurements and electronic structure calculations. The cobalt sublattice magnetizations are very small and antiparallel oriented to rare earths moments. Contributions of cobalt moments to the Curie constants were also shown. The cobalt magnetic behavior has been analyzed in spin fluctuations model. The presence of short-range order above the Curie temperatures in RCo3B2 compounds with R=Tb, Dy, and Ho has been attributed to reminiscent R5d-Co3d interactions.

Banks are normally offered two kinds of deposit accounts. It consists of deposits like current/saving account and term deposits like fixed or recurring deposits. For enhancing the maximized profit from bank as well as customer perspective, term deposit can accelerate uplifting of finance fields. This paper focuses on likelihood of term deposit subscription taken by the customers. Bank campaign efforts and customer detail analysis can influence term deposit subscription chances. An automated system is approached in this paper that works towards prediction of term deposit investment possibilities in advance. This paper proposes deep learning based hybrid model that stacks Convolutional layers and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) layers as predictive model. For RNN, Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) is employed. The proposed predictive model is later compared with other benchmark classifiers such as k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN), Decision tree classifier (DT), and Multi-layer perceptron classifier (MLP). Experimental study concludes that proposed model attains an accuracy of 89.59% and MSE of 0.1041 which outperform well other baseline models.

Conventional plant breeding has contributed enormously towards feeding the world and has played crucial roles in the development of modern society. The conventional method creates variation by transferring genes between or within the species. In general, these methods are more expensive and takes more time, to overcome these limitations, new technology is required. Genome editing is a powerful tool for biotechnology applications, with the capacity to alter the function of any gene. With the availability of gene information for the majority of the traits, genome editing emerged as a potential to create a new variation with the introduction of any transgene. The important genome editing tools used nowadays are ZFNs, TALEN, Pentatricopeptide repeats protein, adenine base editor, RNA interference, and CRISPR/Cas9. These tools have opened a new era for crop improvement. Due to the complex genetic architecture of most traits, it is challenging to edit genes controlling them. To overcome these challenges, genome editing provides a broader perspective. Among the above-mentioned tools, CRISPR/Cas9 is the most powerful tool for gene editing. These technologies are being used to create abiotic and biotic resistance crop varieties.

Power quality is a major concern in electrical power systems. The power quality disturbances such as sags, swells, harmonic distortion and other interruptions have impact on the electrical devices and machines and in severe cases can cause serious damages. Therefore it is required to recognize and compensate all types of disturbances at an earliest to ensure normal and efficient operation of the power system. To solve these problems, many types of power devices are used. At the present time, one of those devices, Dynamic Voltage Restorer (DVR) is the most efficient and effective device used in power distribution system. In this paper, design and modeling of a new structure of multifunctional DVR for voltage correction is presented. The performance of the device under different conditions such as voltage swell, voltage sag due to symmetrical and unsymmetrical short circuit, starting of motors, and voltage distortion are described. Simulation result shows the superior capability of proposed DVR to improve power quality under different operating conditions. The proposed new DVR controller is able to detect the voltage disturbances and control the converter to inject appropriate voltages independently for each phase and compensate to load voltage through three single- phase transformers.

The aim of this paper is to introduce a new methodology for the fault diagnosis of induction machines working in transient regime, when time-frequency analysis tools are used. The proposed method relies on the use of the optimized Slepian window for performing the short time Fourier transform (STFT) of the stator current signal. It is shown that for a given sequence length of finite duration the Slepian window has the maximum concentration of energy, greater than can be reached with a gated Gaussian window, which is usually used as analysis window. In this paper the use and optimization of the Slepian window for fault diagnosis of induction machines is theoretically introduced and experimentally validated through the test of a 3.15 MW induction motor with broken bars during the start-up transient. The theoretical analysis and the experimental results show that the use of the Slepian window can highlight the fault components in the current's spectrogram with a significant reduction of the required computational resources.

Three-phase AC electric arc furnace (EAF) is a typical non-linear load, causing many power quality problems. Most of the researches on the voltage problems of EAF mainly focus on the voltage fluctuation, and less on the transient voltage problems caused by EAF short circuit and open circuit. In this paper, the relationship between voltage and current of EAF is obtained by combining hyperbolic function and exponential function, then the white noise and chaotic circuit are added to establish the EAF model which is suitable for the study of voltage fluctuation and transient voltage. This paper analyzes the causes of the transient voltage problem of the EAF, calculates the short-circuit current, reactive impact and the influence on voltage at the point of common coupling (PCC) in the three-phase short-circuit of the EAF, and compares the calculation results with the simulation results to prove the accuracy of this model. The results show that the reactive impact of three-phase short circuit is about twice as much as that of normal operation of EAF, resulting in about 30% voltage sag at the PCC, which is very unfavorable to the power grid. This paper provides reference for transient power quality evaluation and dynamic reactive power compensation of EAF.

The rapid growth rate of the elderly population is a serious current issue in most countries, affecting them economically through needed medical treatment and healthcare planning. The priority concern is how to reduce the number of elderly people requiring long-term healthcare and raise the number who are able to live independently. This study executed a behavior assessment of elderly person’s self-reported use of electric scooters and analyzed their degree of acceptance of these assisted living tools, partly through a related factor analysis of our survey instrument. We used this questionnaire survey as our research method, applying SPSS22 software for factor analysis that revealed five survey facets.

Accurate forecasting of wind power generation plays a key role in improving the operation and management of a power system network and thereby its reliability and security. However, predicting wind power is complex due to the existence of high non-linearity in wind speed that eventually relies on prevailing weather conditions. In this paper, a novel hybrid deep learning model is proposed to improve the prediction accuracy of very short-term wind power generation for the Bodangora Wind Farm located in New South Wales, Australia. The hybrid model consists of convolutional layers, gated recurrent unit (GRU) layers and a fully connected neural network. The convolutional layers have the ability to automatically learn complex features from raw data while the GRU layers are capable of directly learning multiple parallel sequences of input data. The data sets of five-minute intervals from the wind farm are used in case studies to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model against other advanced existing models, including long short-term memory (LSTM), GRU, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and support vector machine (SVM), which are tuned to optimise outcome. It is observed that the hybrid deep learning model exhibits superior performance over other forecasting models to improve the accuracy of wind power forecasting, numerically, up to 1.59 per cent in mean absolute error, 3.73 per cent in root mean square error and 8.13 per cent in mean absolute percentage error.

It is required to manage sustainable Short-Rotation Coppices (SRCs) as an important role on carbon sink and bioenergy output, because most of SRCs were established in reclaimed land in South Korea. However, during the last three years, growth pattern of the SRCs was remarkably changed with soil condition. This study aimed to identify the sustainability of SRCs on carbon storage, biomass and fuel pellet production, monitoring the neighboring vegetation of SRCs by land-use exchange, physiological change of poplar on seasonal trend, and to evaluate whether poplar is suitable for making wood pellets. The calculated biomass yield per area of poplar grown was 103.07 Mg per total area (55.6 ha), and volumes of carbon dioxide absorption was estimated to be 330 Mg CO2. Wood pellet quality based on the criteria scored third grade, indicating that poplar is suitable for manufacturing fuel pellets. Moreover, monitoring of the flora distribution in SRCs revealed changes in species composition. As halophyte was increased during drought, soil organic matter, net growth and total chlorophyll of poplar were significantly decreased. These findings indicated that photosynthesis and growth pattern of SRCs may be negatively affected by microclimate and will provide valuable information for effective management of SRCs.

One of the key challenges of stock trading is the stock prices follow a random walk process, which is a special case of a stochastic process, and are highly sensitive to new information. A random walk process is difficult to predict in the short-term. Many linear process models that are being used to predict financial time series are structural models that provide an important decision boundary, albeit not adequately considering the correlation or causal effect of market sentiment on stock prices. This research seeks to increase the predictive capability of linear process models using the SPDR S\&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index as a proxy for market sentiment. Three econometric models are considered to forecast SPY prices: (i) Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), (ii) Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH), and (iii) Vector Autoregression (VAR). These models are integrated into two technical indicators, Bollinger Bands and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), focusing on forecast performance. The profitability of various algorithmic trading strategies is compared based on a combination of these two indicators. This research finds that linear process models that incorporate the VIX Index do not improve the performance of algorithmic trading strategies.

This work combines compressive sensing and short word-length techniques to achieve localization and target tracking in wireless sensor networks with energy-efficient communication between the network anchors and the fusion center. Gradient descent localization is performed using time-of-arrival (TOA) data which are indicative of the distance between anchors and the target thereby achieving range-based localization. The short word-length techniques considered are delta modulation and sigma-delta modulation. The energy efficiency is due to the reduction of the data volume transmitted from anchors to the fusion center by employing any of the two delta modulation variants with compressive sensing techniques. Delta modulation allows the transmission of one bit per TOA sample. The communication energy efficiency is increased by RⱮ, R≥1, where R is the sample reduction ratio of compressive sensing and Ɱ is the number of bits originally present in a TOA-sample word. It is found that the localization system involving sigma-delta modulation has a superior performance to that using delta-modulation or pure compressive sampling alone, in terms of both energy efficiency and localization error in the presence of TOA measurement noise, owing to the noise shaping property of sigma-delta modulation.

COVID-19 patients can recover with a median SARS-CoV-2 clearance of 20 days post initial symptoms (PIS). However, we observed some COVID-19 patients with existing SARS-CoV-2 for more than 50 days PIS. This study aimed to investigate the cause of viral clearance delay and the infectivity in these patients. Demographic data and clinical characteristics of 22 long-term COVID-19 patients were collected. SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid, peripheral lymphocyte count, and functionality were assessed. SARS-CoV-2-specific and neutralization antibodies were detected, followed by virus isolation and genome sequencing. The median age of the studied cohort was 59.83±12.94 years. All patients were clinically cured after long-term SARS-CoV-2 infection ranging from 53 to 112 days PIS. Peripheral lymphocytes counts were normal. Interferon gamma (IFN-ƴ)-generated CD4+ and CD8+ cells were normal as 24.68±9.60% and 66.41±14.87%. However, the number of IFN-ƴ-generated NK cells diminished (58.03±11.78%). All patients presented detectable IgG, which positively correlated with mild neutralizing activity (ID50=157.2, P=0.05). SARS-CoV-2 was not isolated, and a cytopathic effect was lacking. Only three synonymous variants were identified in spike protein coding regions. In conclusion, decreased IFN-γ production by NK cells and low neutralizing antibodies might favor SARS-CoV-2 long-term existence. Further, low viral load and weak viral pathogenicity was observed in COVID-19 patients with long-term SARS-CoV-2 infection.

With the latest advances in information and communication technologies, greater amounts of sensitive user and corporate information are constantly shared across the network making it susceptible to an attack that can compromise data confidentiality, integrity and availability. Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) are important security mechanisms that can perform a timely detection of malicious events through the inspection of network traffic or host-based logs. Throughout the years, many machine learning techniques have proven to be successful at conducting anomaly detection but only a few considered the sequential nature of data. This work proposes a sequential approach and evaluates the performance of a Random Forest (RF), a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and a Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) on the CIDDS-001 dataset. The resulting performance measures of this particular approach are compared with the ones obtained from a more traditional one, that only considers individual flow information, in order to determine which methodology best suits the concerned scenario. The experimental outcomes lead to believe that anomaly detection can be better addressed from a sequential perspective and that the LSTM is a very reliable model for acquiring sequential patterns in network traffic data, achieving an accuracy of 99.94% and a f1-score of 91.66%.

Climate change has become the greatest threat to the survival of world and its ecosystem. With the irreversible impact on the ecosystem, problems like rise in sea level, food-insecurity, natural resources scarcity, seasonal disorders have increased over the past few years. Among these problems, the issue of water scarcity due to the lack of water resources and global warming has plagued several nations. Owing to the rising concerns over water scarcity United Nations (UN) has acknowledged water as a primary resource to the development of societies under the ‘Water Goal’ of the sustainable development goals. As the changing climate and intermittent availability of water resources pose major challenges to forecast demand, especially in countries like the United Arab Emirates (UAE) which has one of the highest per capita residential water consumption rates in the world. Therefore, the aim of this study is to propose an accurate water demand forecasting technique that incorporates all significant factors to predict the future water demands of the UAE. The forecasting model used is the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), with the factors considered are mean temperature, mean rainfall, relative humidity, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and population growth. The LSTM model predicts the water demand forecasting in the UAE showing that the future demand will decrease from 1821 million m3 in 2018 to 1809.9 million m3 in 2027.

Purpose: To compare the efficacy and safety of graft-free short tunnel small flap (STSF) technique with that of scleral patch graft (SPG) in Ahmed glaucoma valve (AGV) implantation. Design: Randomized clinical trial. Participants: Eighty-eyes of eighty patients with medically uncontrolled glaucoma including 41 in STSF and 39 eyes in SPG. Methods: Patients were enrolled and assigned randomly to STSF or SPG. Main Outcome Measures: tube exposure, Intraocular pressure (IOP), number of glaucoma medications, best corrected visual acuity (BCVA), surgical complications, and success rate ( defined as intraocular pressure (IOP) >5 mmHg, ≤21 mmHg, and IOP reduction ≥20% from baseline at two consecutive visits after three months, no reoperation for glaucoma). Results: only one case in SPG developed tube exposure at 1-year follow-up. The cumulative probability of success during the first year of follow-up was 70% in the STSF and 65% in SPG (P = 0.36). IOP decreased significantly from 29.6 ± 8.6 mmHg at baseline to 16.4 ± 3.6 mmHg at the final follow-up in STSF (p = 0.001). The corresponding numbers for SPG were 30.9 ± 11.2 and 15.8 ± 4.7, respectively (p = 0.001). The final IOP was comparable between both groups (p = 0.65). Mean ± standard deviation of the number of glaucoma medications was 1.8 ± 0.9 in STSF and 1.6 ± 0.9 in SPG at final follow-up (P = 0.32). Postoperative complications developed in 8 patients (19%) in STSF and 9 patients (23%) in SPG (P = 0.81). Conclusions: STSF and SPG techniques had comparable complication rate at one-year follow-up. Both techniques were comparable in terms of success rate, postoperative IOP, and glaucoma medications.

Great Britain’s stocks of coal, natural gas, and petroleum have seen major changes to the levels of stored energy over the years 2005 to 2019, a reduction of 200 TWh (35%) from 570 TWh to 370 TWh. The transformation of its electrical system over this timeframe saw a reduction in coal generation, leading to a corresponding reduction of the levels of stockpiled coal of 85 TWh (68%), partially offset by an increase in the stocks of biomass for electrical generation. The reduction in natural gas storage of 24 TWh (44%) was primarily due to the closure of Britain’s only long-term seasonal natural gas storage facility in January 2018. This was partially offset by the construction of medium-term natural gas storage facilities and the use of LNG storage in the years preceding its closure. For stocks of crude oil and oil products the reduction was 35 TWh (21%), linked to the overall reduction in demand.

Rainfall is a major climate parameter whose variation in space and time influences activities in different weather sensitive sectors such as agriculture, transport, and energy among others. Therefore, accurately forecasting rainfall is of paramount importance to the development of these sectors. In this regard, this study sought to contribute to quantitative forecasting of rainfall over Eastern Uganda through assessing the Weather Research and Forecasting model’s ability to simulate the intra–seasonal characteristics of the September to December rain season. These were: onset and cessation dates; wet days and lengths of the wet spells. The data used in the study included daily ground rainfall observations and lateral and boundary conditions data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) final analysis at 1 0 horizontal resolution and at a temporal resolution of 6 hours for the entire study period were used to initialize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The study considered four weather synoptic weather stations namely; Jinja, Serere, Soroti and Tororo. The results show that the WRF model generally simulated fewer wet days at each station except for Tororo. Also, the WRF model simulated earlier onset and cessation dates of the rainfall season and overestimated the length of the wet spells.

Research background: Relationship between inflation rate, unemployment rate, interest rate and real gross domestic product per capita in Nigeria. However, there seems to be a short-run or long-run relationship among the macroeconomic variables.Purpose: This study investigated the impact of the inflation rate, unemployment rate and interest rate on real gross domestic product per capita (RGDPPC) (proxy for economic growth) and proffered recommendations towards enhancing economic growth and to reduce the distasteful effects of inflation rate, unemployment rate and interest rate in Nigeria in this present time economic challenges.Research methodology: This study applied a linear dynamic model Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling technique to analyze the short-run dynamics and long-run relationship of the economic growth in Nigeria over the sample period between 1984 and 2017 using annual secondary data extracted from World Bank Development Indicators Report (last updated January 2019).Results: The empirical results showed that there was long-run relationship between inflation rate, unemployment rate and interest rate on real gross domestic product per capita (proxy for economic growth) in Nigeria. The result further revealed that only unemployment rate had a significant positive impact on real gross domestic product per capita in the long-run and inflation rate had a significant negative impact on real gross domestic product per capita in the short-run.Novelty: Therefore, the study concluded that unemployment rate and inflation rate proved to have significant impacts on economic growth in the long-run and short-run respectively. Formulation of policies to reduce unemployment through the adoption of labour concentrated technique of production, entrepreneurship development and policy to keep the inflation rate at single digit.

Purpose: To analyze the five-year results of Trabectome ab interno trabeculectomy of a single glaucoma center. Method: In this retrospective interventional single-center case series, data of 93 patients undergoing ab interno trabeculotomy between September 2010, and December 2012 were included. Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed using success criteria defined as postoperative intraocular pressure (IOP) ≤21 mm Hg, or >20% reduction from preoperative IOP, and no need for further glaucoma surgery. Risk factors for failure were identified using Cox proportional hazards ratio (HR). Results: The retention rate for five years follow-up was 66%. The cumulative probability of success at 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 years was 82.6%, 76.7%, 73.9%, 72.3%, and 67.5%. Risk factors for failure were lower baseline IOP (HR=0.27, P=0.001), younger age (HR=0.25, P=0.02), and higher central corneal thickness (HR=0.18, P= 0.01). Pseudoexfoliation was associated with a higher success rate (HR= 0.39, P=0.02). IOP was decreased significantly from 20.0±5.6 mmHg at baseline to 15.6±4.6 mmHg at 5-year follow-up (P=0.001). The baseline number of glaucoma medications was 1.8±1.2, which decreased to 1.0±1.2 medications at 5 years. Conclusion: Trabectome surgery was associated with a good long-term efficacy and safety profile in this single-center case series with a high retention rate. A higher baseline IOP, older age, thinner cornea, and pseudoexfoliation glaucoma were associated with a higher success rate.

Energy harvesting from wind turbines has been explored by researchers for more than a century from conventional turbines up to the latest bladeless turbines. Amongst these bladeless turbines, vortex bladeless wind turbine (VBT) harvests energy from oscillation of a turbine body. Due to the novelty of this science and the widespread researches around the world, one of the most important issues is to optimize and predict produced power. To enhance the produced output electrical power of VBT, the fluid-solid interactions (FSI) were analyzed to collect a dataset for predicting procedure. Long short-term memory (LSTM) method has been used to predict the produced power of VBT from the collected data. The reason of choosing LSTM from various artificial neural network methods is that the parameters of VBT study are all time- dependent and the LSTM is one of the most accruable algorithms for predicting time series data. In order to find the relationship between the parameter and the variables used in this research, a correlation matrix was presented. According to the value of 0.3 for the root mean square error (RMSE), a comparative analysis between the simulation results and its prediction shows that the LSTM method is very accurate for these types of research. Furthermore, the LSTM method has significantly reduced the computation time so that the prediction time of desired values has been reduced from an average of 2 and a half hours to two minutes. Also, one of the most important achievements of this study is to suggest a mathematical relation of VBT output power which helps to extend it in a different size of VBT with a high range of parameter variations.

Simulation tools capturing the interactions of communication and electrical system operation represent a powerful support for fully assessing the potential benefits and impacts of ICT in future smart power distribution network. A strong interest is upon the possibility of exploiting the last generation communication systems for supporting the transition of distribution network towards a smart grid scenario. Having in mind the above, the authors propose a numerical co-simulation tool useful to thoroughly understand the impact of the communication networks on the performance of whole power system dynamics. The co-simulation tool has been purposely developed to simulate the highly time-critical smart grid application of fault management and network reconfiguration and permits reproducing and evaluating the behavior of the public mobile telecommunication system 4G Long Term Evolution (LTE), as communication technology for smart grid applications. Results of the paper demonstrates that LTE provides good performances for supporting the data communication required to perform fault location, extinction and a subsequent network reconfiguration in smart power distribution networks.

We find that the overnight returns of Korean exchange-traded index funds (ETFs) are significantly positive, whereas the subsequent intraday returns are negative. These intraday return reversals are caused by relatively higher opening prices than the closing prices. In the Korean ETF market, where institutional investors are dominant participants, the return reversals are not explained by the attention hypothesis as in Berkman et al. [1]. Hence, we investigate whether the disagreement hypothesis can explain return reversals. Under the disagreement situations between positive and negative traders at the open, positive traders can have a positive influence on the ETF prices by increasing their investments. However, negative traders, who give up investments due to limited short selling opportunities in the ETF market, have no effects on the prices. Comparing ETF markets with KOSPI 200 Futures where there are no restrictions on short selling, we find that short selling constraints are significant factors for the return reversals. This implies that disagreement among the investors can cause return reversals even in the markets without noise traders. Using unique Korean market data, we conclude that return reversals cannot be completely explained by the attention hypothesis, and that disagreement among investors is also a significant factor for the return reversals. This study contributes to the existing literature by showing that the attention hypothesis does not explain return reversals in the ETF market completely, and suggesting the disagreement hypothesis as an alternative.

Recently, several reports have emerged describing the long-term consequences of COVID-19 that may affect multiple systems, suggesting its chronicity. As further research is needed, we conducted a longitudinal observational study to report the prevalence and associated risk factors of long-term health consequences of COVID-19 by symptom clusters in patients discharged from the Temporary COVID-19 Hospital (TCH) in Mexico City. Self-reported clinical symptom data were collected via telephone calls over 90 days post-discharge. Among 4670 patients discharged from the TCH, we identified 45 symptoms across eight symptom clusters (neurological; mood disorders; systemic; respiratory; musculoskeletal; ear, nose, and throat; dermatological; and gastrointestinal). We observed that the neurological, dermatological, and mood disorder symptom clusters persisted in >30% of patients at 90 days post-discharge. Although most symptoms decreased in frequency between day 30 and 90, alopecia and the dermatological symptom cluster significantly increased (p<0·00001). Women were more prone than men to develop long-term symptoms and invasive mechanical ventilation also increased the frequency of symptoms at 30-days post-discharge. Overall, we observed that symptoms often persisted regardless of disease severity. We hope these findings will help promote public health strategies that ensure equity in the access to solutions focused on the long-term consequences of COVID-19.

Although phylogenetic analysis shows coronaviruses (CoV) share similar genome sequences, CoVs encode different number of proteins (5 to 14), which has implication on viral pathogenicity and infection. Here, we aimed to identify (in-silico) the similarities between different members of coronavirus family. The analysis included 50 coronavirus proteomes, including SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), to find the variation of the number of protein functional motifs and domain in each coronavirus. For this role, we used the experimentally validated domain (motif) that known to be crucial for viral infection. Although human CoVs are classified within one genus, we found variations among them. SARS-CoV-1, SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-CoV encode different type of domains, which has implications on the molecular interactions triggered by each virus within human cells. Secondly, we used functional motifs to reconstruct the potential molecular pathways or interactions triggered by SARS-CoV-2 proteins within human cell.

Background: This study investigated the prevalence of worsening problems using Post Stroke Checklist (PSC) at 3, 6, and 12 months post-stroke and their associations with health-related quality of life. Methods: In stroke patients admitted between June 2014 and December 2015, PSC and EuroQol-5Dthree level (EQ-5D-3L) were assessed at post-stroke 3 (n=181), 6 (n=175), and 12months (n=89). The prevalence of worsening problems and its association withEQ-5D-3L at post-stroke 3 and 6months were analyzed. Results: An average of 0.59 (range 0–12), 1.47 (range 0–12), and 1.00 (range 0–10) worsening problems per patient was identified at 3, 6, and 12months after stroke, respectively. The most frequently and continuously identified worsening problems were mood disturbances (reported by 8.8%, 16.0% and13.5% of patients at 3, 6, and 12 months post-stroke, respectively). Worsening mobility was significantly associated with worse EQ-5D index at post-stroke 3 months (β,-0.583; 95% CI, -1.045 to -0.120). The worsening of mobility and communication was significantly associated with worse EQ-5D index at post-stroke 6 months (mobility: β,-0.170; 95% CI, -0.305 to -0.034, communication: β,-0.164; 95% CI, -0.309 to -0.020). Conclusions: PSC may be useful for the detection of various subjective worsening problems during serial clinical follow-up after stroke. Appropriate rehabilitation and management strategy to solve the identified problems could improve the quality of life in stroke survivors.

Proper species identification from ancient DNA samples is a difficult task that sheds light on the evolutionary history of pathogenic microorganisms. The field of palaeomicrobiology has undoubtedly benefited from the advent of untargeted metagenomic approaches that use next-generation sequencing methodologies. Nevertheless, assigning ancient DNA at the species level is a challenging process. Recently, the gut microbiome analysis of three pre-Columbian Andean mummies [1](Santiago-Rodriguez et al. 2016) has called into question the identification of Leishmania in South America. Here, the metagenomic data filed in MG-RAST (Metagenomics RAST server) were used for a further attempt to identify members of the Trypanosomatidae family infecting these ancient remains. For this purpose, we used two metagenomic analysis tools. In the first step, data were analysed using the ultrafast metagenomic sequence classifier, based on exact alignment of k-mers (Kraken). In the second step, we used Bowtie2, an ultrafast and memory-efficient tool for aligning sequencing reads to long reference sequences. We then compared the output results. These approaches highlight some interesting findings on potential infections by human pathogenic trypanosomatids in these three pre-Columbian mummies.

There are a large number of wildlife and insect species that are in trouble on this planet, and most believe that monarch butterflies in eastern North America are too, because of the well-publicized declines of their winter colonies in central Mexico in the last 25 years. A small number of studies over the last decade have cast doubt on this claim by showing declines are not evident at other stages of the annual cycle. To determine how extensive this pattern is, I conducted an exhaustive review of peer-reviewed and grey literature on (eastern) monarch population censuses and studies, conducted across all seasons, and extracted data from these sources to evaluate how monarch abundance has or has not changed over time. I identified 20 collections of data that included butterfly club reports, compilations of citizen-science observations, migration roost censuses, long-term studies of isotopic signatures, and even museum records. These datasets range in duration from 15 years to over 100 years, and I endeavored to also update each with information from the most current years. I also re-examined the winter colony data after incorporating historical records of colony measurements dating back to 1976. This represents the most complete and up-to-date synthesis of information regarding this population. When I examined the long-term trajectory within each dataset a distinct pattern emerged. Modest declines are evident within the winter colonies (over the full 45 year dataset), and, within three censuses conducted during the spring recolonization. Meanwhile, 16 completely separate monitoring studies conducted during the summer and fall (and from varying locations) revealed either no trend at all or in fact an increase in abundance. While each of these long-term studies has inherent limitations, the fact that all 16 sources of data show the same pattern is undeniable. Moreover, this evidence is consistent with recently-conducted genetic work that shows a lack of decline. Collectively, these results indicate that despite diminishing winter colonies and spring migrations, monarchs in eastern North America are capable of rebounding fully each year, implying that milkweed is not limiting within their collective range. Moreover, there is no indication from these data that the summer population was ever truly diminished by changing agricultural practices in the Midwest that reduced milkweed in crop fields within that region. It is possible that the larger population is not as dependent on Midwestern agricultural milkweed as once thought, and/or that monarchs are adapting to increasingly human-altered landscapes. These results are timely and should bear on the upcoming USFWS decision on whether the monarch requires federal protection in the United States. Importantly, they argue that despite losses of many insects globally, the eastern North American monarch population is not in the same situation.

In this study, 6 residents of a long-term care facility were asked to try on Virtual Reality glasses and report their first experiences with Virtual Reality. The results show that Virtual Reality is of great interest to elderly residents of in-patient long-term care facilities. The wearing period was longer than expected and no symptoms of cyber sickness occurred. For the residents it was exciting to explore the virtual environments. Austrian destinations, nature scenes in the mountains and forests but also trips to the zoo, the museum, in churches or even densely populated areas like shopping streets or train stations would be places for the residents, they would like to explore virtually. Far-off destinations such as Rio de Janeiro or the Caribbean are more of an exception. Biographically relevant places such as the parental home or the location of their wedding were not named. Concerning the usability, an adjustment of the VR glasses is necessary for a longer-term use in any case.

Smart grids require flexible data driven forecasting methods. We propose clustering tools for bottom-up short-term load forecasting. We focus on individual consumption data analysis which plays a major role for energy management and electricity load forecasting. The two first sections are dedicated to the industrial context and a review of individual electrical data analysis. We are interested in hierarchical time-series for bottom-up forecasting. The idea is to disaggregate the signal in such a way that the sum of disaggregated forecasts improves the direct prediction. The 3-steps strategy defines numerous super-consumers by curve clustering, builds a hierarchy of partitions and selects the best one minimizing a forecast criterion. Using a nonparametric model to handle forecasting, and wavelets to define various notions of similarity between load curves, this disaggregation strategy applied to French individual consumers leads to a gain of 16\% in forecast accuracy. We then explore the upscaling capacity of this strategy facing massive data and implement proposals using R, the free software environment for statistical computing. The proposed solutions to make the algorithm scalable combines data storage, parallel computing and double clustering step to define the super-consumers.

Objectives: A wealth of literature has established risk factors for social isolation among older people, however much of this research has focused on community-dwelling populations. Relatively little is known about how risk of social isolation is experienced among those living in long-term care (LTC) homes. We conducted a scoping review to identify possible risk factors for social isolation among older adults living in LTC homes. Methods: A systematic search of five online databases retrieved 1535 unique articles. Eight studies met the inclusion criteria. Results: Thematic analyses revealed that possible risk factors exist at three levels: individual (e.g., communication barriers), systems (e.g., location of LTC facility), and structural factors (e.g., discrimination). Discussion: Our review identified several risk factors for social isolation that have been previously documented in literature, in addition to several risks that may be unique to those living in LTC homes. Results highlight several scholarly and practical implications.

Software reliability is an important characteristic for ensuring the qualities of software products. Predicting the potential number of bugs from the beginning of a development project allows practitioners to make the appropriate decisions regarding testing activities. In the initial development phases, applying traditional software reliability growth models (SRGMs) with limited past data does not always provide reliable prediction result for decision making. To overcome this, herein we propose a new software reliability modeling method called deep cross-project software reliability growth model (DC-SRGM). DC-SRGM is a cross-project prediction method that uses features of previous projects’ data through project similarity. Specifically, the proposed method applies cluster-based project selection for training data source and modeling by a deep learning method. Experiments involving 15 real datasets from a company and 11 open source software datasets show that DC-SRGM can more precisely describe the reliability of ongoing development projects than existing traditional SRGMs and the LSTM model.

Dietary factors play an important role in shaping the gut microbiome which, in turn, regulates the molecular events in colonic mucosa. The composition and resulting metabolism of the gut microbiome have been implicated in the development of colorectal cancer (CRC). Diets low in dietary fibers and phytomolecules as well as other lifestyle-related factors may predispose to CRC. Emerging evidence demonstrates that the predominance of microbes, such as Fusobacterium nucleatum, can predispose the colonic mucosa to malignant transformation. Dietary and lifestyle modifications have been demonstrated to restrict the growth of potentially harmful opportunistic organisms. In this study, we aim to present evidence regarding the relationship of dietary factors to the gut microbiome and development of CRC.

Beer fermentation is typically monitored by periodic sampling and off-line analysis. In-line sensors would remove the need for time-consuming manual operation and provide real-time evaluation of the fermenting media. This work uses a low-cost ultrasonic sensor combined with machine learning to predict the alcohol concentration during beer fermentation. The highest accuracy model (R2=0.952, MAE=0.265, MSE=0.136) used a transmission-based ultrasonic sensing technique along with the measured temperature. However, the second most accurate model (R2=0.948, MAE=0.283, MSE=0.146) used a reflection-based technique without the temperature. Both the reflection-based technique and the omission of the temperature data are novel to this research and demonstrate the potential for a non-invasive sensor to monitor beer fermentation.

This work aims to develop an integrated fault location and restoration approach for microgrids (MGs). This work contains two parts. Part I presents the fault location algorithm, and Part II shows the restoration algorithm. The proposed algorithms are implemented by particle swarm optimization (PSO). The fault location algorithm is based on network connection matrices, which are the modifications of bus-injection to branch-current and branch-current to bus-voltage (BCBV) matrices, to form the new system topology. The backward/forward sweep approach is used for the prefault power flow analysis. After the occurrence of fault, the voltage variation at each bus is calculated by using the Zbus modification algorithm to modify Zbus. Subsequently, the voltage error matrix is computed to search for the fault section by using PSO. After the allocation of the fault section, the multi-objective function is implemented by PSO for optimal restoration with its constraints. Finally, the IEEE 37-bus test system connected to distributed generations is utilized as the sample system for a series simulation and analysis. The outcomes demonstrated that the proposed optimal algorithm can effectively solve the fault location and restoration problem in MGs.

The aim of the studies was to test the hydraulic pressure losses along the length, local pressure losses, absolute and relative roughness values of the pipeline walls made of modern polymer material. The article presents the results of the experimental studies of hydraulic resistance of pipelines from modern polymer materials, the method of theoretical determination of resistance coefficients in the VALTEC ISO 21003 metal polymer pipeline, the classification and method of determining the values of local hydraulic resistance coefficients of T-Junctions are given, the dependence for determining the Darcy λ hydraulic friction coefficient associated with the value of the equivalent hydraulic roughness coefficient of the inner surface of pipes and the Reynolds number. The experimental data of the hydraulic coefficient of friction Darcy λ was compared with the known theoretical relationships of A.D. Altschul, Colbrooke for smooth pipes, Colbrooke and White, an alternative to the Colbrooke-White, Offengenden equation for low-shear pipes and pipes from polymer materials with Reynolds numbers Re>10^4. Dependence of hydraulic coefficient of friction on relative equivalent roughness of pipeline walls and Reynolds number, specific energy loss per one linear meter on total flow rate in system of hydraulically short pipeline is obtained. The empirical dependence of values of coefficients of local resistance ζ=f(Q2/Q3) from a ratio of the divided expenses of Q2/Q3 of the equal-pass T-Junction α=90 the pipeline to a branch up, on pass in the direct T-Junction and division of streams at various internal pipeline diameters of VALTEC.

To minimise environmental impact, avoid regulatory penalties, and improve competitiveness, energy-intensive manufacturing firms require accurate forecasts of their energy consumption so that precautionary and mitigation measures can be taken. Deep learning is widely touted as a superior analytical technique to traditional artificial neural networks, machine learning, and other classical time series models due to its high dimensionality and problem solving capabilities. Despite this, research on its application in demand-side energy forecasting is limited. We compare two benchmarks (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and an existing manual technique used at the case site) against three deep learning models (simple Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU)) and three machine learning models (Support Vector Regression (SVM), Random Forest, and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN)) for short term load forecasting (STLF) using data from a Brazilian thermoplastic resin manufacturing plant. We use the grid search method to identify the best configurations for each model, and then use Diebold-Mariano testing to confirm the results. Results suggests that the legacy approach used at the case site is the worst performing, and that the GRU model outperformed all other models tested.

Precipitation downscaling is widely employed for enhancing the resolution and accuracy of precipitation products from general circulation models (GCMs). In this study, we propose a novel statistical downscaling method to foster GCMs’ precipitation prediction resolution and accuracy for monsoon region. We develop a deep neural network composed of convolution and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent module to estimate precipitation based on well-resolved atmospheric dynamical fields. The proposed model is compared against GCM precipitation product and classical downscaling methods in the Xiangjiang River Basin in South China. Results show considerable improvement compared to the ECMWF-Interim reanalysis precipitation. Also, the model outperforms benchmark downscaling approaches, including 1) quantile mapping, 2) support vector machine, and 3) convolutional neural network. To test the robustness of the model and its applicability in practical forecast, we apply the trained network for precipitation prediction forced by retrospective forecasts from ECMWF model. Compared to ECMWF precipitation forecast, our model makes better use of the resolved dynamical field for more accurate precipitation prediction at lead time from 1 day up to 2 weeks. This superiority decreases along forecast lead time, as GCM’s skill in predicting atmospheric dynamics being diminished by the chaotic effect. At last, we build a distributed hydrological model and force it with different sources of precipitation inputs. Hydrological simulation forced with the neural network precipitation estimation shows significant advantage over simulation forced with the original ERA-Interim precipitation (with NSE value increases from 0.06 to 0.64), and the performance is just slightly worse than the observed precipitation forced simulation (NSE=0.82). This further proves the value of the proposed downscaling method, and suggests its potential for hydrological forecasts.

Detection of early stage corrosion on slender steel members is crucial for preventing buckling failures of steel structures. An active photoacoustic fiber optic sensors (FOS) system has been reported for early stage steel corrosion detection of steel plates and rebars using surface ultrasonic waves. The objective of this paper is to investigate the surface corrosion/rust detection problem on steel rods using numerically simulated surface ultrasonic waves. The finite element method (FEM) is applied in simulating the propagation of ultrasonic waves on steel rod models. Transmission mode of damage detection is adopted, in which one source (transmitter) and one sensor (receiver) are considered. In this research, radial displacements at the receiver were simulated and analyzed by short-time Fourier transform (STFT) for detecting, locating, and quantifying a surface rust located between the transmitter and the receiver. From our time domain and frequency domain analyses, it is found that the presence, location, and dimensions (length, width, and depth) of surface rust can be estimated by ultrasonic waves propagating through the surface rust.

Probiotics make up a large and growing segment of the commercial market of dietary supplements and are touted as offering a variety of human health benefits. Some of the purported positive impacts of probiotics include, but are not limited to, stabilization of the gut microbiota, prevention of gastrointestinal disorders and modulation of the host immune system. Current research suggests that the immunomodulatory effects of probiotics are strain specific and vary in mode of action. Here, we examined the immunomodulatory properties of Bacillus subtilis strain DE111 in a healthy human population. In a randomized, double blind, placebo-controlled four-week intervention, we examined peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) at basal levels pre- and post-treatment as well as in response to stimulation with bacterial lipopolysaccharide (LPS). We observed an anti-inflammatory effect of B. subtilis, manifested as a decrease in immune cell populations within the basal state along with an increase in anti-inflammatory immune cells in response to LPS stimulation. Overall gastrointestinal health, microbiota, and circulating and fecal markers of inflammation and gut barrier function were largely unaffected by DE111 treatment. These data suggest that the novel probiotic B. subtilis DE111 may have clinical applications in modulating immune homeostasis via anti-inflammatory mechanisms.

Modeling brain dynamics to better understand and control complex behaviors underlying various cognitive brain functions are of interests to engineers, mathematicians, and physicists from the last several decades. With a motivation of developing computationally efficient models of brain dynamics to use in designing control-theoretic neurostimulation strategies, we have developed a novel data-driven approach in a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network architecture to predict the temporal dynamics of complex systems over an extended long time-horizon in future. In contrast to recent LSTM-based dynamical modeling approaches that make use of multi-layer perceptrons or linear combination layers as output layers, our architecture uses a single fully connected output layer and reversed-order sequence-to-sequence mapping to improve short time-horizon prediction accuracy and to make multi-timestep predictions of dynamical behaviors. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in reconstructing the regular spiking to bursting dynamics exhibited by an experimentally-validated 9-dimensional Hodgkin-Huxley model of hippocampal CA1 pyramidal neurons. Through simulations, we show that our LSTM neural network can predict the multi-time scale temporal dynamics underlying various spiking patterns with reasonable accuracy. Moreover, our results show that the predictions improve with increasing predictive time-horizon in the multi-timestep deep LSTM neural network.

It was demonstrated during the past decade that ultra-short intense laser pulse tightly focused deep inside a transparent dielectric generates the energy density in excess of several MJ/cm$^3$. Such energy concentration with extremely high heating and quenching rates leads to unusual solid-plasma-solid transformation paths overcoming kinetic barriers to formation of previously unknown high-pressure material phases, which are preserved in the surrounding pristine crystal. These results were obtained with the pulse of Gaussian shape in space and in time. Recently it was shown that the Bessel-shaped pulse could transform much larger amount of a material and allegedly create even higher energy density than that was achieved with the Gaussian (GB) pulses. Here we present a succinct review of previous results and discuss the possible routes for achieving higher energy density employing the Bessel beams (BB) and take advantage of its unique properties.

Abstract: Early life gut microbiota have been increasingly recognized as major contributors to short and/or long-term human health and diseases. Numerous studies have demonstrated that human gut microbial colonization begins at birth but continues to develop a succession of taxonomic abundances for two to three years until the gut microbiota reaches adult-like diversity and proportions. Several factors, including gestational age (GA), delivery mode, birth weight, feeding types, antibiotic exposure, maternal microbiome and diet influence the diversity, abundance and function of the early life gut microbiota. Gut microbial life is essential for assisting with the digestion of food substances to release nutrients, exerting control over pathogens, stimulating or modulating the immune system and influencing many systems such as the liver, brain, and endocrine system. Microbial metabolites play multiple roles in these interactions. Furthermore, studies provide evidence supporting that imbalances of the gut microbiota in early life, referred to as dysbiosis, are associated with specific childhood or adult disease outcomes, such as asthma, atopic dermatitis, diabetes, allergic diseases, obesity, cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and neurological disorders. These findings support that the human gut microbiota may play a fundamental role in the risk of acquiring diseases that may be programmed during the early life stage. In fact, it is critical to explore the role of the human gut microbiota in early life. In this review, we summarize the general understanding of the colonization and development of the gut microbiota in early life, highlighting the recent findings regarding the relationship between the gut microbiota composition and their metabolites, and immune functions, which could significantly influence long-term health and disease. We then review known pathophysiological interactions of the early gut microbiome with a number of well characterized diseases and pose potential etiological mechanisms.

The search for new materials that could improve the energy density of Li-ion batteries (LIB) is one of today’s most challenging issues. Recently, cation-disordered lithium-excess metal oxides have emerged as a promising new class of cathode materials for LIB, due to their high reversible capacities and nice structural stability. However, a full structural model of the Li-transition metal (TM) sharing sublattice and the origin of short range ordering (SRO) of cation ions requires further investigation. In this work, we put forward a Monte Carlo strategy of building a cation-disordered rocksalt material supercell model. The cation ions of Li_1.0Ti_0.5Ni_0.5O₂ (LTNO) are placed at the FCC sublattice sites with the constraint of Pauling’s electroneutrality rule, instead of a random way. This constraint causes the Li-Ti and Ni-Ni clustering (the cation short range ordering). Based on this model, we discussed the relationship between the short range ordering, the local distorting, the theoretic capacity and the order-disorder strengths. A unified understanding of these factors in cation-disordered materials may enable a better design of disordered-electrode materials with high capacity and high energy density.

Refractive surgery is an increasingly popular procedure to decrease spectacle or contact lens dependency. The two most commonly used surgical techniques to correct myopia is Photorefractive keratectomy (PRK) and Femtosecond- Lasik (FS-LASIK)There are few publications that gathers such a long term follow up of both surgical techniques (2) Methods It has been performed a retrospective non-randomized study 509 PRK eyes and 310 FS-LASIK surgeries were followed for 10 years for the treatment of myopia and compound myopic astigmatism. Patients were followed up three months, one year, 2 years, 5 and 10 years. The safety index of both procedures was defined as a quotient between the postoperative BCVA (Best Corrected Visual Acuity) and the preoperative BCVA. The predictability is calculated as difference between the expected spherical equivalent and the achieved spherical equivalent. The efficacy index was calculated as a quotient between postoperative UCVA divided by the preoperative BCVA (3) Results. The results were: a safety index higher than 100% (109%) and an efficacy index of 82.4% after 10 years of PRK surgery in both groups. FS-LASIK was the safest surgery after 10 years and the most efficacy technique although in this case there were no statistically significant differences (4) Conclusions. All these data demonstrated better indexes for FS-LASIK

This study analyses the short-run hydro generation scheduling for the wind power differences from the contracted schedule. The approach for construction of the joint short-run marginal cost curve for the hydro-wind coordinated generation is proposed and applied on the real example. This joint short-run marginal cost (SRMC) curve is important for its participation in the energy markets and for economic feasibility assessment of such coordination. The approach credibly describes the short-run marginal costs which this coordination bears in “real life”. The approach is based on the duality framework of a convex programming and as a novelty combines the shadow price of risk mitigation capability and the water shadow price. The proposed approach is formulated as a stochastic linear program and tested on the case of the Vinodol hydropower system and the wind farm Vrataruša in Croatia. The result of the case study is a family of 24 joint short-run marginal cost curves.

The increased consumption of high fat-containing foods has been linked to the prevalence of obesity and abnormal metabolic syndromes. Rhizopus oligosporus, a fungus in the family Mucoraceae, is widely used as a starter for homemade tempeh. Although R. oligosporus can prevent the growth of other microorganisms, it grows well with lactic acid bacteria (LAB). Lactobacillus plantarum can produce β-glucosidase, which catalyzes the hydrolysis of glucoside isoflavones into aglycones (with greater bioavailability). Therefore, the development of a soybean-based functional food by the co-inoculation of R. oligosporus and L. plantarum is a promising approach to increase the bioactivity of tempeh. In this study, the ameliorative effect of L. plantarum in soy tempeh on abnormal carbohydrate metabolism in high-fat diet (HFD)-induced hyperglycemic rats was evaluated. The co-incubation of L. plantarum with R. oligosporus during soy tempeh fermentation reduced the homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance, HbA1c, serum glucose, total cholesterol, triglyceride, free fatty acid, insulin, and low-density lipoprotein contents and significantly increased the high-density lipoprotein content in HFD rats. It also increased the LAB counts as well as the bile acid, cholesterol, triglyceride, and short-chain fatty acid contents in the feces of HFD rats. Our results suggested that the modulation of serum glucose and lipid levels by LAB occurs via alterations in the internal microbiota, leading to the inhibition of cholesterol synthesis and promotion of lipolysis. Tempeh, produced with both L. plantarum and R. oligosporus, may be a beneficial dietary supplement for individuals with abnormal carbohydrate metabolism.

Much evidence has accumulated over the past decade in favor of a significant association between dysbiosis, neuroinflammation and neurodegeneration. Presently, the pathogenetic mechanisms triggered by molecules produced by the altered microbiota, also responsible for the onset and evolution of Alzheimer Disease will be described. Our attention will be focused on the role of astrocytes and microglia. Numerous studies have progressively demonstrated how these glial cells are important to ensure an adequate environment for neuronal activity in healthy conditions. Furthermore, it is becoming evident how both cell types can mediate the onset of neuroinflammation and lead to neurodegeneration when subjected to pathological stimuli. Based on this information, the role of major microbiota products in shifting the activation profiles of astrocytes and microglia from a healthy to a diseased state will be discussed focussing on Alzheimer Disease pathogenesis.

Metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma pancreatic (PDAC) is characterized by poor prognosis and short survival. Today, the use of new polytherapeutic regimens increases clinical outcome of these patients opening new clinical scenario. A crucial issue related to the actual improvement achieved with these new regimens is represented by the occasional possibility to observe a radiological complete response of metastatic lesions in patients with synchronous primary tumor. What could be the best therapeutic management of these patients? Could surgery represent an indication? Herein we reported a case of a patient with a PDAC of the head with multiple liver metastasis, who underwent first line chemotherapy with mFOLFIRINOX. After 10 cycles, he achieved a complete radiological response of liver metastases and a partial response of pancreatic lesion. A, duodenocephalopancreasectomy was performed. Due to liver a lung metastases after 8 months from surgery, a second line therapy was started with a disease free survival and overall survival of 8 months and 45 months, respectively. Improvement in the molecular characterization of PDAC could help in the selection of patients suitable for multimodal treatments.

Athletes living with and beyond cancer can continue to train and, in some cases, compete during treatment. Following cancer treatment, athletes can return to competitive sport but need to learn to adapt their physical strength and training to lingering effects of cancer. It is critical for oncology healthcare providers to use the principles of assess, refer and advise to exercise oncology programs that are appropriate for the individual. Managing side effects of treatment is key to being able to train during and immediately following cancer treatment. Keen attention to fatigue is important at any point in the cancer spectrum to avoid overtraining and optimize the effects of training.

The principal aim of a spectral observer is twofold: the reconstruction of a signal of time via state estimation and the decomposition of such a signal into the frequencies that make it up. A spectral observer can be catalogued as an online algorithm for time-frequency analysis because is a method that can compute on the fly the Fourier transform (FT) of a signal, without having the entire signal available from the start. In this regard, this paper presents a novel spectral observer with an adjustable constant gain for reconstructing a given signal by means of the recursive identification of the coefficients of a Fourier series. The reconstruction or estimation of a signal in the context of this work means to find the coefficients of a linear combination of sines a cosines that fits a signal such that it can be reproduced. The design procedure of the spectral observer is presented along with the following applications: (1) the reconstruction of a simple periodical signal, (2) the approximation of both a square and a triangular signal, (3) the edge detection in signals by using the Fourier coefficients, (4) the fitting of the historical Bitcoin market data from 2014-12-01 to 2018-01-08 and (5) the estimation of a input force acting upon a Duffing oscillator. To round out this paper, we present a detailed discussion about the results of the applications as well as a comparative analysis of the proposed spectral observer vis-à-vis the Short Time Fourier Transform (STFT), which is a well-known method for time-frequency analysis.

This pilot study of Streptococcus mutans ATCC 35668 grown in media with and without polyols (erythritol) measured the resultant metabolites, including the short chain fatty acids by using head space analysis. Brain Heart Infusion Broth (BHI2 or BHI10) supplemented with 2% or 10% sucrose containing no polyols or either erythritol or xylitol and Streptococcus mutans (ATCC 35668) was grown aerobically. After 48 hours of growth the supernatant were harvested and centrifuged to pellet bacteria. Supernatants were removed from bacterial pellets then submitted for Short Chain Fatty Acid (SCFA) analysis with an Agilent Technologies (Santa Clara, CA 95051) system configured from three components, a 5973 mass selective detector, a 6890N gas chromatographer, and a 7697A headspace sampler. Streptococcus mutans growing in Brain Heart Infusion Broth (BHI2 or BHI10) supplemented with 2% or 10% sucrose but containing no polyols produced the following short chain fatty acids: methyl isovalerate, acetic acid, propionic acid, butanoic acid, pentanoic acid, ethyl butaric acid, 4-methylvaleric acid, hexanoic acid. When the Brain Heart Infusion Broth (BHI2 or BHI10) supplemented with 2% or 10% sucrose containing erythritol was used as media for this Streptococcus mutans strain, the following were produced: ethanol, acetoin, and acetic acid. Our results would suggest that constituents of the media may affect the bacterial metabolite production.

Statistics of languages are calculated by counting characters, words, sentences, word rankings. Some of these random variables are also the main “ingredients” of classical readability formulae. Revisiting the readability formula of Italian, known as GULPEASE, shows that of the two terms that determine the readability index G – the semantic index G_C, proportional to the number of characters per word, and the syntactic index G_F, proportional to the reciprocal of the number of words per sentence −, G_F is dominant because G_C is, in practice, constant for any author throughout seven centuries of Italian Literature. Each author can modulate the length of sentences more freely than he can do with the length of words, and in different ways from author to author. For any author, any couple of text variables can be modelled by a linear relationship y=mx, but with different slope m from author to author, except for the relationship between characters and words, which is unique for all. The most important relationship found in the paper is, in author’s opinion, that between the short−term memory capacity, described by Miller’s “7∓2 law”, and the word interval, a new random variable defined as the average number of words between two successive punctuation marks. The word interval can be converted into a time interval through the average reading speed. The word interval is spread in the same of Miller’s law, and the time interval is spread in the same range of short−term memory response times. The connection between the word interval (and time interval) and short−term memory appears, at least empirically, justified and natural, and should further investigated. Technical and scientific writings (papers, essays etc.) ask more to their readers. A preliminary investigation of these texts shows clear differences: words are on the average longer, the readability index G is lower, word and time intervals are longer. Future work done on ancient languages, such as Greek or Latin, could bring us a flavor of the short term−memory features of these ancient readers.

Healthcare workers (HCWs) in long-term care (LTC) faced and continue to experience significant emotional and psychological distress throughout the pandemic. Despite this, little is known about the unique experiences of LTC workers. This scoping review synthesizes existing research on the experiences of HCWs in LTC during the COVID-19 pandemic. Following Arksey and O’Malley’s framework, data were extracted from six databases from inception of the pandemic to June 2022. Among 3,808 articles screened, 40 articles were included in the final analysis. Analyses revealed three interrelated themes: carrying the load (moral distress); building pressure and burning out (emotional exhaustion); and working through it (a sense of duty to care). Given the impacts of the pandemic on both HCW wellbeing and patient care, every effort must be made to address the LTC workforce crisis and evaluate best practices for supporting HCWs experiencing mental health concerns during and post-COVID-19.

Coincident changes in abundance and behavior pose a challenge for interpreting abundance data from monitoring programs. In the San Francisco Estuary, long-term monitoring documented the declines of many species including the anadromous Longfin Smelt (Spirinchus thaleichthys). We identified seasonal patterns in reginal presence of Longfin Smelt through its life cycle using monitoring data and generalized additive modelling. We then investigated the year-to-year variability in the seasonal patterns of presence using functional data analysis (FDA). FDA separated the variability due to population size from variability due to differences in timing of presence. We found that Longfin Smelt have consistent seasonal distribution patterns and that two trawl types were needed to accurately describe those patterns. After accounting for variability due to year-class strength, shifts in the timing of presence were evident in three regions. The most variable period for the upstream regions Suisun Bay and West Delta was for age-0 fish in summer and for the downstream region Central Bay was for age-0 fish in late fall. This manifested as a delay in the typical fall re-occupation of upstream regions that comprise the study area for another monitoring study (Fall Midwater Trawl). Thus, a portion of the recent reductions in Fall Midwater Trawl abundance of Longfin Smelt resulted from changes in behavior rather than a decline in abundance. The presence of multiple monitoring surveys allowed analysis of distribution from one data set to aid interpretation of patterns in abundance from another monitoring survey. This study highlights how identifying portions of the life cycle with the most and least variability in distribution can help inform the types of management strategies that will be most effective. It also illustrates an analytical method that can be used to address the problem of confounded effects of abundance and behavior on patterns in monitoring data.

Due to its devastating consequences, late life depression is an important public health problem. The aim of the study was the analysis of variables which may potentially influence risk of depression (GDS-SF). Furthermore, the aim was to study possible mediating effect of given variables on the relationship between the total protein concentration and risk of depression in older-adults with chronic diseases, and physical function impairment. The research sample included a total of 132 older adults with chronic conditions and physical function impairments, remaining under a long-term care in residential environment. Negative linear correlation was observed between patients’ physical functionality, total protein concentration, concentration of HDL cholesterol, arm circumference, and the risk of depression. Considerably stronger relationship was observed between total protein concentration, and GDS-SF, in elderly suffering from sensory dysfunction (b = −6.42, 95% CI = −11.27; −1.58). The effect of the mediation between depression risk is correlated to total protein concentration in blood serum, and the mediators are probably low function impairment and low levels of 25 (OH)D vitamin. Cohort control research is suggested to confirm the hypothesis.

Wearable technology will become available and allow prolonged electroencephalography (EEG) monitoring in the home environment of patients with epilepsy. Neurologists analyse the EEG visually and annotate all seizures, which patients often under report. Visual analysis of a 24 hour EEG recording typically takes one to two hours. Reliable automated seizure detection algorithms will be crucial to reduce this analysis. We study a dataset of behind-the-ear EEG measurements. Our first aim was to develop a methodology to reduce the EEG dataset by classifying part of the data automatically, while retaining 100% detection sensitivity (DS). Prediction confidences are determined by temperature scaling of the classification model outputs and trust scores. A DS of approximately 90% (99%) can be achieved when automatically classifying around 90% (60%) of the data. Perfect DS can be achieved when automatically classifying 50% of the data. Our second contribution demonstrates that a common modelling strategy, where predictions from several short EEG segments are used to obtain a final prediction, can be improved by filtering out untrustworthy segments with low trust scores. The false detection rate shows a relative decrease between 21% and 43%, and the DS shows a small increase or decrease.

Background: Previous papers have developed a statistical mechanics of neocortical interactions (SMNI) fit to short-term memory and EEG data. Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA) has been developed to perform fits to such nonlinear stochastic systems. An N-dimensional path-integral algorithm for quantum systems, qPATHINT, has been developed from classical PATHINT. Both fold short-time propagators (distributions or wave functions) over long times. Previous papers applied qPATHINT to two systems, in neocortical interactions and financial options. Objective: In this paper the quantum path-integral for Calcium ions is used to derive a closed-form analytic solution at arbitrary time that is used to calculate interactions with classical-physics SMNI interactions among scales. Using fits of this SMNI model to EEG data, including these effects, will help determine if this is a reasonable approach. Method: Methods of mathematical-physics for optimization and for path integrals in classical and quantum spaces are used for this project. Studies using supercomputer resources tested various dimensions for their scaling limits. In this paper the quantum path-integral is used to derive a closed-form analytic solution at arbitrary time that is used to calculate interactions with classical-physics SMNI interactions among scales. Results: The mathematical-physics and computer parts of the study are successful, in that there is modest improvement of cost/objective functions used to fit EEG data using these models. Conclusions: This project points to directions for more detailed calculations using more EEG data and qPATHINT at each time slice to propagate quantum calcium waves, synchronized with PATHINT propagation of classical SMNI.

Body acceleration due the heartbeat-induced reaction forces can be measured as smartphone accelerometer (m-ACC) signals. Our aim was to test the feasibility of using m-ACC to detect changes induced by stress by ultra-short heart rate variability (USV) indices (SDNN and RMSSD). Sixteen healthy volunteers were recruited; m-ACC was recorded while in supine position, during spontaneous breathing (REST) and during one minute of mental stress (MS) induced by arithmetic serial subtraction task, simultaneous with conventional ECG. Beat occurrences were extracted from both ECG and m-ACC and used to compute USV indices using 60, 30 and 10s durations, both for REST and MS. A feasibility of 93.8% in the beat-to-beat m-ACC heart rate series extraction was reached. In both ECG and m-ACC series, compared to REST, in MS the mean beat duration was reduced by 15% and RMSSD decreased by 38%. These results show that short term recordings (up to 10 sec) of cardiac activity using smartphone’s accelerometers are able to capture the decrease in parasympathetic tone, in agreement with the induced stimulus.

Dementia patients express a set of problematic and deteriorating symptoms, along self-care dependency. Overtime, the mental health of family caregivers of persons with dementia may suffer, putting them at a high risk for psychopathology, which may be associated with endangered wellbeing of demented people. This cross-sectional study examined the psychometric properties of the Depression Anxiety Stress Scale 8-items (DASS-8), DASS-12, DASS-21 in a convenient sample of 571 caregivers from northern Italy and southern Switzerland (Mean age = 53, SD = 12, range = 24–89 years). A bifactor structure of the three measures had the best fit; some items of the DASS-12/DASS-21 failed to load on their domain-specific factors. The three-factor structure was invariant across various groups (e.g., gender, education, etc.), expressed adequate reliability and convergent validity, and had strong positive correlation with the 3-item UCLA Loneliness Scale (UCLALS3). Dementia type had no effect on distress scores, which were higher among females, adult children caregivers, those caring for dependent patients, and those who received help with care. For 54.9 and 38.8% of the latter, care was provided by relatives and health professionals, respectively. Since the DASS-8 expresses adequate psychometrics comparable with the DASS-21, it may be used as a brief measure of distress in this population.

This article presents the implementation of a model to estimate the future price of commodities in the Brazilian market from time series of short-term technical evaluation. For this, data from two databases were used, one referring to the foreign market (opening values, maximum, minimum, closing, closing adjustment and volume) and the other, from the Brazilian market (the price of the day), considering commodities, sugar, cotton, corn, soybean and wheat. Subsequently, the technical indicators were calculated from the TA-Lib technical analysis library. Pearson’s correlation coefficient was applied, records with low correlation were removed, and then the database was consolidated. From the pre-processed data, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks were used to perform data prediction at the one and three day interval. These models were evaluated using the mean square error (MSE), obtaining results between 0.00010 and 0.00037 on test data one day ahead, and from 0.00017 to 0.00042 three days ahead. However, based on the results obtained, it was observed that the developed model obtained a promising forecasting performance for all the commodities evaluated. As a main contribution, there is the consolidation of databases that can be used in future scientific research. Furthermore, based on its interpretation, it can assist in decision making regarding the buying and selling of commodities to increase financial gains.

A long-term investigation of D. suzukii dynamics in wild blueberry fields from 2012 - 2018 demonstrates relative abundance is still increasing seven years after initial invasion. Relative abundance is determined by physiological date of first detection and air temperatures the previous winter. Date of first detection of flies does not determine date of fruit infestation. The level of fruit infestation is determined by year, fly pressure, and insecticide application frequency. Frequency of insecticide application is determined by production system. Non-crop wild fruit and predation influences fly pressure; increased wild fruit abundance results in increased fly pressure. Increased predation rate reduces fly pressure, but only at high abundance of flies, or when high levels of wild fruit are present along field edges. Male sex ratio might be declining over the seven years. Action thresholds were developed from samples of 92 fields from 2012 - 2017 that related cumulative adult male trap capture to the following week likelihood of fruit infestation. A two-parameter gamma density function describing this probability was used to develop a risk-based gradient action threshold system. The action thresholds were validated from 2016-2018 in 35 fields and were shown to work well in two of three years (2016 and 2017).

Memory is probably one of the most complex cognitive functions of the human, and in many years, thousands of studies have helped us to better recognize this brain function. One of the reference textbooks in neuroscience, which has also elaborated on the memory function, is written by Prof. Kandel and his colleagues. In this book, I encountered a number of ambiguities when it was explaining the memory system. Here, I am sharing those points, either to find an answer for them, or to let them be a suggestion for our future works. Prof. Kandel has spent most of his meritorious lifetime on studying the memory system; however, the brain is extremely complex, and as a result, we still have many years to comprehensively understand the neural mechanisms of brain functions.

Heart Rate Monitors (HRMs) are an indispensable tool for controlling training parameters of healthy athletes. They became a source of information about stress heart rhythm disturbances, recognized as unexpected increases in heart rate (HR), which can be life-threatening for athletes. Most HRMs do not recognize the type of arrhythmia, confusing them with artifacts. The aim of the study was to assess the usefulness of ECG recording functions by sports HRMs among endurance athletes, coaches, and physicians in comparison with other basic and hypothetical functions. We conducted 3 surveys among endurance athletes (76 runners, 14 cyclists, and 10 triathletes), as well as 10 coaches and 10 sports doctors to obtain information on how important ECG recording is, and what functions of HRMs should be improved to meet their expectations in the future. The respondents were asked questions regarding use and hypothetical functions, as well as preference for HRM type (optical/strap). For athletes, the 4 most important functions were distance traveled, pace, instant heart rate, and information about reaching the oxygen threshold. ECG recording was the 8th and 9th most important for momentary and continuous, respectively. Coaches opined more importance to ECG recording. Doctors placed ECG recording as most important. All participants preferred optical HRMs to strap HRMs. Research on the improvement and implementation of HRM functions shows slightly different preferences of athletes compared to coaches and doctors. Suspected arrhythmia increases the value of the HRM’s ability to record ECGs during training by athletes and coaches. For doctors, this is the most desirable feature in any situation. Considering the expectations of all groups continuous ECG recording during training will significantly improve the safety of athletes.

We provide a comprehensive framework for forecasting five minute load using Gaussian processes with a positive definite kernel specifically designed for load forecasts. Gaussian processes are probabilistic, enabling us to draw samples from a posterior distribution and provide rigorous uncertainty estimates to complement the point forecast, an important benefit for forecast consumers. As part of the modeling process, we discuss various methods for dimension reduction and explore their use in effectively incorporating weather data to the load forecast. We provide guidance for every step of the modeling process, from model construction through optimization and model combination. We provide results on data from the PJMISO for various periods in 2018. The process is transparent, mathematically motivated, and reproducible. The resulting model provides a probability density of five-minute forecasts for 24 hours.

Abstract: Spatially explicit, fine-grained datasets describing historical urban extents are rarely available prior to the era of operational remote sensing. However, such data are necessary to better understand long-term urbanization and land development processes and for the assessment of coupled nature-human systems, e.g., the dynamics of the wildland-urban interface. Herein, we propose a framework that jointly uses remote sensing derived human settlement data (i.e., the Global Human Settlement Layer, GHSL) and scanned, georeferenced historical maps to automatically generate historical urban extents for the early 20th century. By applying unsupervised color segmentation to the historical maps, spatially constrained to the urban extents derived from the GHSL, our approach generates historical settlement extents for seamless integration with the multi-temporal GHSL. We apply our method to study areas in countries across four continents, and evaluate our approach for two U.S. study sites against historical settlement extents derived from the Historical Settlement Data Compilation for the US, HISDAC-US, achieving Area-under-the-Curve values >0.9. Our results are largely in agreement with model-based urban areas from the HYDE database, and demonstrate that the integration of remote sensing derived observations and historical cartographic data sources opens up new, promising avenues for assessing urbanization, and long-term land cover change in countries where historical maps are available.

Commercial buildings are a significant consumer of energy worldwide. Logistics facilities, and specifically warehouses, are a common building type yet under-researched in the demand-side energy forecasting literature. Warehouses have an idiosyncratic profile when compared to other commercial and industrial buildings with a significant reliance on a small number of energy systems. As such, warehouse owners and operators are increasingly entering in to energy performance contracts with energy service companies (ESCOs) to minimise environmental impact, reduce costs, and improve competitiveness. ESCOs and warehouse owners and operators require accurate forecasts of their energy consumption so that precautionary and mitigation measures can be taken. This paper explores the performance of three machine learning models (Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)), three deep learning models (Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU)), and a classical time series model, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) for predicting daily energy consumption. The dataset comprises 8,040 records generated over an 11-month period from January to November 2020 from a non-refrigerated logistics facility located in Ireland. The grid search method was used to identify the best configurations for each model. The proposed XGBoost models outperform other models for both very short load forecasting (VSTLF) and short term load forecasting (STLF); the ARIMA model performed the worst.

Immunotherapy has gained great momentum with chimeric antigen receptor T cell (CAR-T) therapy, in which patient’s T lymphocytes are genetically manipulated to recognize tumor-specific antigens increasing tumor elimination efficiency. In the last years, CAR-T cell immunotherapy for hematological malignancies achieved a great response rate on patients and is a very promising therapy for several other malignancies. Each new CAR design requires a preclinical proof-of-concept experiment using immunodeficient mouse models. The absence of a functional immune system in these mice makes them simple and suitable to be mathematically modeled. In this work, we developed a three population mathematical model to describe tumor response to CAR-T cell immunotherapy in immunodeficient mouse models, encompassing interactions between a non-solid tumor and CAR-T cells (effector and long-term memory). We account for several phenomena, such as tumor-induced immunosuppression, memory pool formation, and conversion of memory into effector CAR-T cells in the presence of new tumor cells. Individual donor and tumor specificities were considered as uncertainties in the model parameters. Our model is able to reproduce several CAR-T cell immunotherapy scenarios, with different CAR receptors and tumor targets reported in the literature. We found that therapy effectiveness mostly depends on some specific parameters such as the differentiation of effector to memory CAR-T cells, CAR-T cytotoxic capacity, tumor growth rate, and tumor-induced immunosuppression. In summary, our model can contribute to reduce and optimize the number of in vivo experiments with in silico tests to select specific scenarios that could be tested in experimental research. Such in silico laboratory was made available in a Shiny R-based platform called CARTmath. It is an open-source, easy to run simulator, available at github.com/tmglncc/CARTmath or directly on the webpage cartmath.lncc.br, containing this manuscript results as examples and documentation. The developed model, together with the CARTmath platform, provides potential use for assessing different CAR-T cell immunotherapy protocols and associated efficacy, becoming an accessory towards in silico trials.

For the numerical simulation of components made of short fiber-reinforced composites the correct prediction of the deformation including the elastic and plastic behavior and its spatial distribution is essential. When using purely deterministic modeling approaches the information of the probabilistic microstructure is not included in the simulation process. One possible approach for the integration of stochastic information is the use of random fields. In this study numerical simulations of tensile test specimens are conducted utilizing a finite deformation elastic-ideal plastic material model. A selection of the material parameters covering the elastic and plastic domain are represented by cross-correlated second-order Gaussian random fields to incorporate the probabilistic nature of the material parameters. To validate the modeling approach tensile tests until failure are carried out experimentally, that confirm the assumption of spatially distributed material behavior in both the elastic and plastic domain. Since the correlation lengths of the random fields cannot be determined by pure analytic treatments, additionally numerical simulations are performed for different values of the correlation length. The numerical simulations endorse the influence of the correlation length on the overall behavior. For a correlation length of 5mm a good conformity with the experimental results is obtained. Therefore, it is concluded, that the presented modeling approach is suitable to predict the elastic and plastic deformation of a set of tensile test specimens made of short fiber-reinforced composite sufficiently.

Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias (ADRD) remain a public health challenge in developing counties. We developed a needs-based essential care service package (ECSP) for care planning of persons living with dementia (PLWD) using a cross-sectional survey among PLWD in institutions in six cities in China (n= 1,299). Face-to-face interviews were conducted with caregivers of PLWD by trained staff between 2018 and 2019. Care service needs and utilization by the level of cognitive impairment were summarized. The average age of PLWD was 80.7 years. 76% of participants had severe cognitive impairment. The needs-based ECSP with 30 service items would be sufficient in supporting care services of PLWD in China, of which seven items are core care. The selection plan for ECSP at different levels is designed as “General Care Services + Selective Care Services”, in which service items for low-, mid-and high-level care for PLWD are 7+3, 7+6, and 7+10, respectively. The findings provide the first large-scale data on service needs and utilization of PLWD in mainland China. The ECSP for PLWD advanced in the paper was a practicable and effective quantitative management means. It is deserved to application in a large scale.

This paper realizes early bearing fault warning through bearing fault time series prediction, and proposes a bearing fault time series prediction model based on optimized maximum correlation kurtosis deconvolution (MCKD) and long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network to ensure bearings operation reliability. The model is based on lifecycle vibration signal of the bearing, to begin, the cuckoo search (CS) is utilized to optimize the parameter filter length L and deconvolution period T of MCKD, taking into account the influence and periodicity of the bearing time series, the fault impact component of the optimized MCKD deconvolution time series is improved. Then select the LSTM learning rate α depending on deconvolution time series. Finally, the dataset obtained through various preprocessing approaches are used to train and predict the LSTM model. The average prediction accuracy of the optimized MCKD-LSTM model is 26 percent higher than that of the original time series, proving the efficiency of this method, and the prediction results track the real fault data well, according to the XI'AN JIAOTONG University XJTU-SY bearing dataset.

A long-term forecast study on the electricity demand of Taoussa of Mali is conducted in this paper, with various scenarios of socioeconomic and technological conditions. The analysis tool, which is applied in scenarios simulation, is the Model for Analysis of Energy Demand from the International Atomic Energy Agency. The analysis results are annual electricity demand and peak load forecast for the electrification from the period 2020 to 2035. During the planning period, the analysis results show that the electricity demand will increase to 49.40 MW (332.57 GWh) for the low scenario (LS), 66.46 MW (472.61 GWh) for the reference scenario (RS), and 89.47 MW (635 GWh) for the high scenario (HS). In addition, the total electricity demand increased at an average rate of 8.13% in the LS, 10.31% in the RS and 12.56% in the HS in all sectors. The electricity peak demand is expected to grow at 7.92%, 10.53% and 12.91% corresponding to the three scenarios; in this case, the system peak demand in 2035 will increase to 64.88 MW for the LS, 92.2 MW for the RS and 126.22 MW, the days of peak load are between 17th -23rd in May. The Industry sector will be the biggest electricity consumer of Taoussa area.

For enhancing the maximized profit from bank as well as customer perspective, term deposit can accelerate finance fields. This paper focuses on likelihood of term deposit subscription taken by the customers. Bank campaign efforts and customer details are influential while considering possibilities of taking term deposit subscription. An automated system is provided in this paper that approaches towards prediction of term deposit investment possibilities in advance. Neural network(NN) along with stratified 10-fold cross-validation methodology is proposed as predictive model which is later compared with other benchmark classifiers such as k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN), Decision tree classifier (DT), and Multi-layer perceptron classifier (MLP). Experimental study concluded that proposed model provides significant prediction results over other baseline models with an accuracy of 88.32% and Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 0.1168.

Leucokinins (LKs) constitute a family of neuropeptides identified in numerous insects and many other invertebrates. The LKs act on G-protein coupled receptors that display only distant relations to other known receptors. In adult Drosophila, 26 neurons/neurosecretory cells of three main types express LK. The four brain interneurons are of two types, and these are implicated in several important functions in the fly’s behavior and physiology, including feeding, sleep-metabolism interactions, state-dependent memory formation, as well as modulation of gustatory sensitivity and nociception. The 22 neurosecretory cells (ABLKs) of the abdominal neuromeres coexpress LK and a diuretic hormone (DH44), and together these regulate water and ion homeostasis and associated stress, as well as food intake. In Drosophila larvae, LK neurons modulate locomotion, escape responses, and aspects of ecdysis behavior. A set of lateral neurosecretory cells, ALKs, in the brain express LK in larvae, but inconsistently so in adults. These ALKs coexpress three other neuropeptides and regulate water and ion homeostasis, feeding and drinking, but the specific role of LK is not yet known. This review summarizes Drosophila data on embryonic lineages of LK neurons, functional roles of individual LK neuron types, interactions with other peptidergic systems, and orchestrating functions of LK.

The population dynamics of Hazel Grouse was studied by presence/ absence recording at stationary sites along fixed routes (110 km) during 1972-2019 in the central part of the Bohemian Forest (Šumava, Czech Republic). The 100-km² study area covered altitudes between 600 m (Rejstejn) and 1,253 m a.s.l., (mount Sokol). Our data base contained indices of Hazel Grouse occupancy: positive sites/ controlled sites for a yearly increasing number of Hazel Grouse occurrence sites (N = 134) for 48 years. We used a loglinear Poisson-regression method to analyze the long-term population trend for Hazel Grouse in the study area. In the period 1972 to 2006 we found a stable Hazel Grouse population (p = 0.83). From 2006-2007 to 2019, the population index dropped (-3.8% per year, p &lt; 0.05) for the last 13 years. This decline is assumed to be influenced by habitat loss due to succession resulting in older, more open forest stands, by strongly increasing forestry and windstorm “Kyrill” followed by clear cutting, bark-beetle damage, and removal of pioneer trees in spruce plantations, which diminished buds and catkins, the dominant winter food. The influence of disturbance by increasing touristic activities and/or predation is discussed. Our results could help to optimize conservation efforts for Hazel Grouse in the Bohemian Forest.

This study introduces a comparative analysis of two deep learning (multilayer perceptron neural networks (MLP-NN) and the long short term memory networks (LSTMN)) models for transit travel time prediction. The two models were trained and tested using one-year worth of data for a bus route in Blacksburg, Virginia. In this study, the travel time was predicted between each two successive stations to all the model to be extended to include bus dwell times. Additionally, two additional models were developed for each category (MLP of LSTM): one for only segments including controlled intersections (controlled segments) and another for segments with no control devices along them (uncontrolled segments). The results show that the LSTM models outperform the MLP models with a RMSE of 17.69 sec compared to 18.81 sec. When splitting the data into controlled and uncontrolled segments, the RMSE values reduced to 17.33 sec for the controlled segments and 4.28 sec for the uncontrolled segments when applying the LSTM model. Whereas, the RMSE values were 19.39 sec for the controlled segments and 4.67 sec for the uncontrolled segments when applying the MLP model. These results demonstrate that the uncertainty in traffic conditions introduced by traffic control devices has a significant impact on travel time predictions. Nonetheless, the results demonstrate that the LSTMN is a promising tool that can has the ability to account for the temporal correlation within the data. The developed models are also promising tools for reasonable travel time predictions in transit applications.

The present work studies a swelling porous-elastic system with viscoelastic damping. We establish a general and optimal decay estimate which generalizes some recent results in the literature. Our result is established without imposing the usual equal-wave-speed condition associated with similar problems in literature.

Extensive limb lengthening (ELL) was completed in 75 patients: 66 achondroplasia and 9 hypochondroplasia. The average lengthening was 27cm for achondroplasia (12-40cm) and 17cm for hypochondroplasia (range 10-25cm). There were 48 females and 27 males. Lengthening was done either by 2-segment (14 patients; both tibias and/or both femurs) or by serial 4-segment lengthenings (64 patients; both femurs and tibias same time). Most patients also had bilateral humeral lengthening. Lengthenings were either juvenile-onset (31), adolescent-onset (38) or adult-onset (6). The average age at final follow-up was 26 years old (range 17-43 years). There were few permanent sequelae of complications. The most serious was one paraparesis. All patients returned to activities of normal living and only one was made worse by the surgery (paraparesis). This is the first study to show that ELL can lead to increase of height into the normal height range. Previous studies showed mean increases of height of up to 20cm, while this study consistently showed an average increase of 30 cm (range 15-40cm) for juvenile-onset and increase of 26cm (range 15-30cm) for adolescent-onset. This results in lower normal height at skeletal maturity for males and females. The adult-onset had a mean increase of 16.8 (range 12-22cm). This long-term follow-up study shows ELL can be done safely even with large lengthenings and that 4-segment lengthening may offer advantages over 2-segment lengthening. While the majority of cases were performed using external fixation, implantable limb lengthening promises to be an excellent alternative and perhaps an improvement.