Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Analysis of WRF Simulation Skill for Seasonal Rainfall: A Case Study of 2015 September–November Season

Version 1 : Received: 29 August 2019 / Approved: 30 August 2019 / Online: 30 August 2019 (09:57:58 CEST)

How to cite: Ingula Odongo, R.; Mugume, I. Analysis of WRF Simulation Skill for Seasonal Rainfall: A Case Study of 2015 September–November Season. Preprints 2019, 2019080321 (doi: 10.20944/preprints201908.0321.v1). Ingula Odongo, R.; Mugume, I. Analysis of WRF Simulation Skill for Seasonal Rainfall: A Case Study of 2015 September–November Season. Preprints 2019, 2019080321 (doi: 10.20944/preprints201908.0321.v1).

Abstract

Rainfall is a major climate parameter whose variation in space and time influences activities in different weather sensitive sectors such as agriculture, transport, and energy among others. Therefore, accurately forecasting rainfall is of paramount importance to the development of these sectors. In this regard, this study sought to contribute to quantitative forecasting of rainfall over Eastern Uganda through assessing the Weather Research and Forecasting model’s ability to simulate the intra–seasonal characteristics of the September to December rain season. These were: onset and cessation dates; wet days and lengths of the wet spells. The data used in the study included daily ground rainfall observations and lateral and boundary conditions data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) final analysis at 1 0 horizontal resolution and at a temporal resolution of 6 hours for the entire study period were used to initialize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The study considered four weather synoptic weather stations namely; Jinja, Serere, Soroti and Tororo. The results show that the WRF model generally simulated fewer wet days at each station except for Tororo. Also, the WRF model simulated earlier onset and cessation dates of the rainfall season and overestimated the length of the wet spells.

Subject Areas

Intra–Seasonal rain fall characteristics; Short rains; WRF Model

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