Working Paper Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Very Short-term Forecasting of Wind Power Generation using Hybrid Deep Learning Model

Version 1 : Received: 21 September 2020 / Approved: 22 September 2020 / Online: 22 September 2020 (03:45:59 CEST)

How to cite: Hossain, M.A.; Chakrabortty, R.K.; Elsawah, S.; Ryan, M.J. Very Short-term Forecasting of Wind Power Generation using Hybrid Deep Learning Model. Preprints 2020, 2020090506 Hossain, M.A.; Chakrabortty, R.K.; Elsawah, S.; Ryan, M.J. Very Short-term Forecasting of Wind Power Generation using Hybrid Deep Learning Model. Preprints 2020, 2020090506

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of wind power generation plays a key role in improving the operation and management of a power system network and thereby its reliability and security. However, predicting wind power is complex due to the existence of high non-linearity in wind speed that eventually relies on prevailing weather conditions. In this paper, a novel hybrid deep learning model is proposed to improve the prediction accuracy of very short-term wind power generation for the Bodangora Wind Farm located in New South Wales, Australia. The hybrid model consists of convolutional layers, gated recurrent unit (GRU) layers and a fully connected neural network. The convolutional layers have the ability to automatically learn complex features from raw data while the GRU layers are capable of directly learning multiple parallel sequences of input data. The data sets of five-minute intervals from the wind farm are used in case studies to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model against other advanced existing models, including long short-term memory (LSTM), GRU, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and support vector machine (SVM), which are tuned to optimise outcome. It is observed that the hybrid deep learning model exhibits superior performance over other forecasting models to improve the accuracy of wind power forecasting, numerically, up to 1.59 per cent in mean absolute error, 3.73 per cent in root mean square error and 8.13 per cent in mean absolute percentage error.

Subject Areas

wind power forecasting; short-term prediction; hybrid deep learning; wind farm; long short term memory; gated recurrent network and convolutional layers

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