Preprint
Article

A Linear Process Approach to Short-term Trading Using the VIX Index as a Sentiment Indicator

Altmetrics

Downloads

681

Views

408

Comments

0

Submitted:

24 July 2021

Posted:

29 July 2021

You are already at the latest version

Alerts
Abstract
One of the key challenges of stock trading is the stock prices follow a random walk process, which is a special case of a stochastic process, and are highly sensitive to new information. A random walk process is difficult to predict in the short-term. Many linear process models that are being used to predict financial time series are structural models that provide an important decision boundary, albeit not adequately considering the correlation or causal effect of market sentiment on stock prices. This research seeks to increase the predictive capability of linear process models using the SPDR S\&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index as a proxy for market sentiment. Three econometric models are considered to forecast SPY prices: (i) Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), (ii) Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH), and (iii) Vector Autoregression (VAR). These models are integrated into two technical indicators, Bollinger Bands and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), focusing on forecast performance. The profitability of various algorithmic trading strategies is compared based on a combination of these two indicators. This research finds that linear process models that incorporate the VIX Index do not improve the performance of algorithmic trading strategies.
Keywords: 
Subject: Business, Economics and Management  -   Accounting and Taxation
Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.
Prerpints.org logo

Preprints.org is a free preprint server supported by MDPI in Basel, Switzerland.

Subscribe

© 2024 MDPI (Basel, Switzerland) unless otherwise stated