Diabetes becomes a life threatening non-communicable disease in the world, according to International Diabetic Federation (IDF) in 2023, an estimated 537 million adults (20-79 years) are living with diabetes, which is equivalent to 9.3% of the global adult population. This number is predicted to rise to 643 million by 2030 and 783 million by 2045. Over 3 in 4 adults with diabetes live in low- and middle-income countries. Diabetes is a persistent metabolic condition marked by increased levels of glucose in the bloodstream. It is a significant global health concern, affecting millions of individuals worldwide. It having the symptoms of drowsiness for the whole day if not properly examined or treated well. It is targeted to spread over the younger age community and the number is growing in the exponential fashion. Even day to day many advancements have come from the researcher to diagnose, to find solutions to prevent from newer entry. Authors have taken a dataset with 57 non diabetic and 20 diabetic patients with the total 28735 micro array gene to undergone pre-processing process and reduced up to 22960 gene data using Dimensionality Reduction (DR) such as Detrend Fluctuation Analysis (DFA), Chi square probability density function (Chi2PDF), Firefly algorithm Cuckoo search were used in this research. Meta heuristic algorithms like Particle swarm Optimization (PSO) and Harmonic Search (HS) are used for feature selection. Further seven classification techniques such as Non-Linear Regression (NLR), Linear Regression (LR), Logistics Regression (LoR), Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), Bayesian Linear Discriminant Classifier (BLDC), Softmax Discriminant Classifier (SDC), Support Vector Machine – Radial Basis Function (SVM-RBF) are using to make a decision, predictive analysis and segregate the data according to the level of blood glucose as Diabetic Patient (DP) and Non-Diabetic Patient (NDP).

This study was undertaken to forecast waste generation rates of accommodation sector of North Cyprus as a case. Three predictor models including multiple linear regression (MLR), artificial neural networks (ANNs) and central composite design (CCD) were applied to predict the waste generation rate during the lean and peak seasons. ANN showed highest prediction performance, specifically, lowest values of the standard error of prediction (SEP = 2.153), mean absolute error (MAE=1.378) and highest R2 value (0.998) confirmed the accuracy of the model. The analysed wastes were categorised into recyclable, general waste and food residues. The authors estimated the total waste generated during the lean season as 2010.5 kg/day, in which large-sized hotel accounted for largest fraction (66.7%), followed by the medium hotels (19.4%) and guesthouse accounted for smallest part (2.6%). During the peak season, about 49.6% increases in the waste generation rates were obtained. Interestingly, 45% of the wastes were generated by the British tourists while the least waste was generated by African tourists (7.5%). The ANN predicted that the small and large hotels would produce 5.45 and 22.24 tons of waste by the year 2020, respectively. The findings herein are promising and useful in establishing a sustainable waste management system.

Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy techniques were applied in this work to 9 lead-acid battery prototypes fabricated industrially, divided on three type/technology packages. Frequency dependent impedance changes were interpreted during successive charge/discharge cycles on two distinct stages: 1) immediately after fabrication; and 2) after a controlled aging procedure to 50% Depth of Discharge, following industrial standards. By investigating their State of Health behaviour vs electrical response, three methods were employed, namely the (Q-Q0) total charge analysis, the decay values of Constant Phase Element in the equivalent Randles circuits, and the resonance frequency of the circuit. A direct correlation has been found for prediction of the best performant batteries in each package, thus allowing a qualitative analysis capable to provide the decay of the battery State of Health. We emphasized which parameters are directly connected with their lifetime performance in both stages, and by consequence, which type/technology battery prototype emphasize the best performance. Based on this methodology, the industrial producers can further establish the quality of the novel batteries in terms of performance vs lifespan, allowing them to validate the novel technological innovations implemented in the current prototypes.

Evidence-based healthcare integrates the best research evidence with clinical expertise in order to make decisions based on the best practices available. In this context, the task of collecting all the relevant information, a recall oriented task, in order to take the right decision within a reasonable time frame has become an important issue. In this paper, we investigate the problem of building an effective Consumer Health Search (CHS) systems that use query variations to achieve high recall and fulfill the information needs of health consumers. In particular, we study an intent-aware gain metric used to estimate the amount of missing information and make a prediction about the achievable recall for each query reformulation during a search session. We evaluate and propose alternative formulations of this metric using standard test collections of the CLEF 2018 eHealth Evaluation Lab CHS.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 poses a devastating threat to human society in terms of health, economy and lifestyle. Establishing accurate and real-time models to predict and assess the impact of the epidemic on the economy is instructive. We have designed a new model to quantitatively assess the impact of the COVID-19 on the economy of China’s mainland. The nominal GDP in the Q1 of 2020 that we predicted for China’s mainland with the Baidu Mi-gration Data is RMB 20,785.7 billion, which is less by 3.59% than that in 2019. The estimated val-ue is confirmed roughly by the official report released in April 17, 2020 (RMB 20,650 billion, 6.8% year-on-year declined). Strict control measures during the epidemic have greatly reduced Chi-na's economic activity and had a serious impact on the country's economy. Orderly promotion of population mobility plays a decisive role in economic recovery.

Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) is the second most common cancer of the urinary system. The current therapeutic strategies are based on partial or total nephrectomy and/or targeted therapies based on immune checkpoint inhibitors to which patients are often refractory. Preventive and screening strategies are not existing and the few available biomarkers for RCC are characterized by the lack of sensitivity, outlining the need of novel noninvasive and sensitive biomarkers for an early diag-nosis and a better disease monitoring. Blood liquid biopsy (LB) is a non- or minimally invasive procedure for a more representative view of tumor heterogeneity than the tissue biopsy, poten-tially allowing real-time monitoring of cancer evolution. Growing interest is focused on the extra-cellular vesicles (EVs) secreted by either healthy or tumoral cells and recovered in a variety of bio-logical matrices, blood included. EVs are involved in cell-to-cell crosstalk transferring their mRNAs, miRNAs, and proteins content. In particular, transferred miRNAs may regulate the tu-morigenesis and proliferation also impacting on resistance to apoptosis, thus representing poten-tial useful biomarkers. Here we present the latest efforts in the identification of circulating miR-NAs in blood samples, focusing on the potential use of EV derived miRNAs as RCC diagnostic, prognostic markers.

This study introduces a comparative analysis of two deep learning (multilayer perceptron neural networks (MLP-NN) and the long short term memory networks (LSTMN)) models for transit travel time prediction. The two models were trained and tested using one-year worth of data for a bus route in Blacksburg, Virginia. In this study, the travel time was predicted between each two successive stations to all the model to be extended to include bus dwell times. Additionally, two additional models were developed for each category (MLP of LSTM): one for only segments including controlled intersections (controlled segments) and another for segments with no control devices along them (uncontrolled segments). The results show that the LSTM models outperform the MLP models with a RMSE of 17.69 sec compared to 18.81 sec. When splitting the data into controlled and uncontrolled segments, the RMSE values reduced to 17.33 sec for the controlled segments and 4.28 sec for the uncontrolled segments when applying the LSTM model. Whereas, the RMSE values were 19.39 sec for the controlled segments and 4.67 sec for the uncontrolled segments when applying the MLP model. These results demonstrate that the uncertainty in traffic conditions introduced by traffic control devices has a significant impact on travel time predictions. Nonetheless, the results demonstrate that the LSTMN is a promising tool that can has the ability to account for the temporal correlation within the data. The developed models are also promising tools for reasonable travel time predictions in transit applications.

Predicting anomalies in manufacturing assembly lines is crucial for reducing time and labor costs and improving processes. For instance, in rocket assembly, premature part failures can lead to significant financial losses and labor inefficiencies. With the abundance of sensor data in the Industry 4.0 era, machine learning (ML) offers potential for early anomaly detection. However, current ML methods for anomaly prediction have limitations, with F1-measure scores of only 50% and 66% for prediction and detection, respectively. This is due to challenges like the rarity of anomalous events, scarcity of high-fidelity simulation data (actual data is expensive), and the complex relationships between anomalies not easily captured by traditional ML approaches. Specifically, these challenges relate to two dimensions of anomaly prediction: predicting when anomalies will occur and understanding the dependencies between them. This paper introduces a new method called Robust and Interpretable 2D Anomaly Prediction (RI2AP) designed to address both dimensions effectively. RI2AP is demonstrated on a rocket assembly simulation, showing up to a 30-point improvement in F1 measure compared to current ML methods. This highlights its potential to enhance automated anomaly prediction in manufacturing. Additionally, RI2AP includes a novel interpretation mechanism inspired by a causal-influence framework, providing domain experts with valuable insights into sensor readings and their impact on predictions. Finally, the RI2AP model is deployed in a real manufacturing setting for assembling rocket parts. Results and insights from this deployment demonstrate the promise of RI2AP for anomaly prediction in manufacturing assembly pipelines.

Due to the high effectiveness of cancer screening and therapies, the diagnosis of second primary cancers (SPCs) has increased in women with endometrial cancer (EC). However, there’s no previous literature mentioned about adequate evidence to support screening for SPCs in endometrial cancer. This study was aimed to develop effective risk prediction models of second primary endometrial cancer in women with obesity (Body-mass index; BMI > 25) and this study includes datasets of the incidence of SPCs and the other risks of SPCs in 4480 primary cancer survivors by a hospital-based cancer registry database. In our study, we found the obesity played a key role in SPCs. There’re 10 independent variables used as predicting variables, which corelated to obesity should be monitored for the early detection of SPCs in endometrial cancer. In conclusion, it is a promising SPCs prediction. The proposed scheme can support the important influence of obesity and clinical data representations in all cases after primary treatments. Our results suggested that obesity is still a crucial risk factor to SPCs in endometrial cancer.

To gain insight into riser motions and associated fatigue damage due to vortex-induced vibration (VIV), data loggers such as strain sensors and/or accelerometers are sometimes deployed on risers to monitor their motion in different current velocity conditions. Accurate reconstruction of the riser response and empirical estimation of fatigue damage rates over the entire riser length using measurements from a limited number of sensors can help in efficient utilization of the costly measurements recorded. Several different empirical procedures are described here for analysis of the VIV response of a long flexible cylinder subjected to uniform and sheared current profiles. The methods include weighted waveform analysis (WWA), proper orthogonal decomposition (POD), modal phase reconstruction (MPR), a modified WWA procedure, and a hybrid method which combines MPR and the modified WWA method. Fatigue damage rates estimated using these different empirical methods are compared and cross-validated against measurements. Detailed formulations for each method are presented and discussed with examples. Results suggest that all the empirical methods, despite different underlying assumptions in each of them, can be employed to estimate fatigue damage rates quite well from limited strain measurements.

A crucial aspect in developing machine learning algorithms (or any type of predictive models) is the comparison of different algorithmic candidates based on evaluation criteria that measure their accuracy and practical value in terms of successfully capturing the complexity of the underlying problem and generalizing in a wide range of real-world scenarios. In the domain of diabetes mellitus machine learning techniques are widely employed in the prediction of future values of glucose concentration in the blood in order to assist the patient in avoiding deviations from the normo-glycemic value range and the consequences of hyper- and hypoglycemia. In the relative literature there is an apparent lack of a uniformly adopted evaluation metric which could combine the clarity and direct comparative nature of statistical mathematical formulas dealing with prediction error residuals (e.g., the RMSE) with the clinical insights and the visual-qualitative approach of clinical evaluation tools (e.g., Clarke's EGA). Mean Adjusted Exponent (MADEX) error metric, proposed in this paper, attempts to address this need by providing a validation tool based on an easy to implement mathematical formula, that incorporates adjustable parameters of clinical significance.

1. Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are India’s leading cause of mortality. This study aimed to recalibrate the original Framingham Risk Score (FRS) equations among adults in Kerala state. 2. Methods: Baseline survey data from the Kerala Diabetes Prevention Program were analyzed: 921 males and 567 females for lipid-based FRS scores and 1042 males and 646 females for BMI-based FRS scores. Recalibration of the original FRS scores was performed using local data on CVD risk factors and CVD mortality. 3. Results: Among males, the median 10-year CVD risk with the recalibrated lipid-based FRS score was 7.34 (IQR 4.33-12.42), compared with the original score of 8.88 (5.23-14.87) (p<0.001). For BMI-based FRS scores, the median 10-year CVD risk was 7.40 (4.27-11.83) with the recalibrated score, compared to 9.32 (5.40-14.80) for the original score (p<0.001). In females, the median 10-year CVD risk was 4.83 (2.90-8.36) with the recalibrated score, compared to 2.85 (IQR 1.71-4.98) with the original score (p<0.001). Similarly, the median 10-year CVD risk was 4.66 (2.74-8.81) with the recalibrated BMI-based FRS score, compared to 2.95 (1.72-5.61) with the original score (p<0.001). 4. Conclusions: Recalibrated FRS scores estimated a significantly lower 10-year CVD risk in males and a higher risk in females than the original FRS scores.

This work simulates the performance of lithium batteries for electric vehicles under different charge and discharge rates. The simulation is based on similarity factors for power, voltage and current, reproducing the real operation conditions of an electric vehicle at the model scale. Most current driving modes have been analysed corresponding to discharge rates from 0.1C to 0.37C. The simulation has also been applied to determine charging time using charge power in real conditions, from 6.1 kW to 18.3 kW (0.1 C to 0.3C). Driving conditions are obtained using equations for vehicle motion including all forces. Tests have been run under two configurations, continuous and alternate current circuits, to reproduce the two types of engines that electric vehicles use. The simulation shows very good agreement in charge and discharge processes, average deviation of 3% related to real conditions, and 1.6% between them, which proves the validity of the simulation process.

Inland waters pose a unique challenge for water quality monitoring by remote sensing techniques due to their complicated spectral features and small-scale variability. At the same time, collecting the high-quality reference data needed to calibrate remote sensing data products is both time consuming and expensive. In this study, we present the further development of a robotic team composed of an uncrewed surface vessel (USV) providing in situ reference measurements and an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) equipped with a hyperspectral imager. Together, this team is able to address the limitations of existing approaches by enabling the simultaneous collection of comprehensive in situ data together with high-resolution hyperspectral imagery. We showcase the capabilities of this team using data collected in a north Texas pond during three collections in the fall of 2020. Machine learning models for 13 variables are trained using the data set of paired in situ measurements and coincident reflectance spectra. These models can successfully estimate physical variables, including temperature, conductivity, pH, and turbidity, as well as the concentrations of blue-green algae, colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM), chlorophyll-a, crude oil, optical brighteners and the ions Ca2+, Cl−, and Na+. We extend the training procedure to utilize conformal prediction to estimate 90% confidence intervals for the output of each trained model. The maps generated by applying each trained model to the collected images reveal the small-scale spatial variability within the pond. Additionally, the permutation importance computed for each feature of the trained models highlights the spectral features relevant to each water quality variable.

Ultra-thin Fe–6.5wt.%Si ribbons with 35 μm in thickness were prepared by melt-spinning. The magnetic properties were investigated before and after annealing 1000 ºC. DC properties and low-frequency (400 Hz ~ 10 kHz) iron losses have significantly improved after heat treatment. A simplified formula based on Steinmetz law which can be used to predict the AC iron loss is presented. According to the results of some iron losses data, a simplified formula has been determined, and the extent of AC iron losses can be predicted. The results obtained from the formula predict AC iron loss to a good degree. The method developed in this work could be extended to other magnetic materials for predicting AC iron loss with greater ease.

Accurate prediction of defects in software components plays a vital role in administrating the quality of the quality and efficiency of the system to be developed. So we have written a systematic literature review in order to evaluate the four main defect prediction techniques. Defect prediction paves way for the testers to find bugs and modify them in order to achieve input to output conformance. In this paper we have discussed the open issues in predicting software defects and have provided with a detailed analyzation of different methods including Machine Learning, Integrated Approach, Cross-Project and Deep Forest algorithm in order to prevent these flaws. However, it is almost impossible to rule which method is better than the other so every technique can be analyzed separately and the best technique according to the problem at hand can be used or can be altered to create hybrid technique suitable for the cause.

The fidelity of the decadal experiment in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP5) has been examined, over different climate variables for different temporal and spatial scales, in many previous studies. However, most of the studies were for the temperature and temperature-based climate indices. A quite limited study was conducted on precipitation of decadal experiment and no attention was paid to a catchment level. This study evaluates the performances of eight GCMs (MIROC4h, EC-EARTH, MRI-CGCM3, MPI-ESM-MR, MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC5, CMCC-CM, and CanCM4) for the monthly hindcast precipitation of decadal experiment over the Brisbane River catchment in Queensland, Australia. First, the GCMs datasets were spatially interpolated onto a spatial resolution of 0.050×0.050 (5 km× 5 km) matching with the grids of observed data and then were cut for the catchment. Next, model outputs are evaluated for temporal skills, dry and wet periods, and total precipitation (over time and space) based on the observed values. Skill test results reveal that model performances varied over the initialization years and showed comparatively higher scores from the initialization year 1990 and onward. Models with finer spatial resolutions show comparatively better performances as opposed to the models of coarse spatial resolutions where MIROC4h outperformed followed by EC-EARTH and MRI-CGCM3. Comparing the skills, models are divided into three categories (Category-I: MIROC4h, EC-EARTH, and MRI-CGCM3; Category-II: MPI-ESM-LR and MPI-ESM-MR; and Category-III: MIROC5, CanCM4, and CMCC-CM). Three multimodel ensembles’ mean (MMEMs) are formed using the arithmetic mean of Category-I (MMEM1), Category-I and II (MMEM2), and all eight models (MMEM3). The performances of MMEMs are also assessed using the same skill tests and MMEM2 performed best which suggests evaluating the models before the formation of MMEM.

Purpose: To compare refractive prediction error (PE)s between phacotrabeculectomy and phacoemulsification. Methods: Refractive PE was defined as the difference of spherical equivalent between the predicted value using the Barrett Universal II formula and the actual value obtained at postoperative one month. Forty-eight eyes that had undergone phacotrabeculectomy (19 eyes, open-angle glaucoma; 29 eyes, angle-closure glaucoma) were matched with 48 eyes that had undergone phacoemulsification by age, average keratometry value and axial length (AL), and their PEs were compared. The factors associated with PE were analyzed by multivariable regression analyses. Results: Phacotrabeculectomy group showed a larger absolute PE compared to the phacoemulsification group (0.51 ± 0.37 Diopters vs. 0.38 ± 0.22, P=0.033). Larger absolute PE was associated with longer AL (P=0.010) and higher intraocular pressure (IOP) difference (P=0.012). Hyperopic shift (PE>0) was associated with shallower preoperative anterior chamber depth (ACD) (P=0.024) and larger IOP difference (P=0.031). In the phacotrabeculectomy group, the PE was inversely correlated with AL: long eyes showed myopic shift and short eyes hyperopic shift (P=0.002). Conclusions: Surgeons should be aware of the possibility of worse refractive outcomes when planning phacotrabeculectomy especially in eyes with high preoperative IOP, shallow ACD, and/or extreme AL.

Link prediction is to complete the missing links in the network or to predict the generation of new links according to the current network structure information, which is very important for mining and analyzing the evolution of the network such for construction and analysis of logical architecture in 6G network. Link prediction algorithms based on node similarity need predefined similarity functions, which is highly hypothetical and only applies to specific network structures without generality. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a link prediction algorithm based on the subgraph of the target node pair. In order to automatically learn the graph structure characteristics, the algorithm firstly extracts the h-hop subgraph of the target node pair, and then predicts whether the target node pair will be linked according to the subgraph. Experiments on seven real data sets show that the link prediction algorithm based on target node pair subgraph is suitable for various network structures and superior to other link prediction algorithms.

In this work, we propose a self-supervised multi-agent system that meets the online learning of clustering tasks for video behavior recognition spatio-temporal tasks. Encoding visual behavioral actions as discrete temporal sequence(DTS). Real-time clustering recognition task in a multi-agent system for continuous model building, training, and correction. Finally, we implemented a fully decentralized multi-agent system and completed its feasibility verification in a surveillance video application scenario on vehicle path clustering.

Technological innovations and the expansion of Internet access have produced significant changes in the configurations of organizations and, consequently, in the relationships between employees and employers. This new scenario generates the need for greater monitoring in the workplace in order to control inappropriate behavior or situations that may generate misfortunes. Two important problems faced are the dissemination of hate through networks and data leakage that can have social, psychological, and financial impacts. Thus, monitoring tools can be incorporated to assist in surveillance, and thus ensure the achievement of organizational objectives. This paper presents a workplace computer monitoring solution that integrates Spyware techniques, and text sentiment classification, along with a distributed microservices architecture, which aims to collect a range of information and generate alerts to managers regarding hate speech and vulnerabilities. Preliminary tests have been conducted to evaluate the performance of Spyware integrated with prediction models.

The prediction of drug--target interactions is always a key task in the field of drug redirection. However, traditional methods of predicting drug--target interactions are either mediocre or rely heavily on data stacking. In this work, we merged heterogeneous graph information and obtained effective node information and substructure information based on mutual information in graph embeddings. We then learned high quality representations for downstream tasks, and proposed an end--to--end auto--encoder model to complete the task of link prediction. Experimental results show that our method outperforms several state--of--art models. The model can achieve the area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve of 0.959 and area under the precise recall curve (AUPR) of 0.848. We found that the mutual information between the substructure and graph--level representations contributes most to the mutual information index in a relatively sparse network. And the mutual information between the node--level and graph--level representations contributes most in a relatively dense network.

In recent years, research has focused on generating mechanisms to assess the levels of subjects' cognitive workload when performing various activities that demand high concentration levels, such as driving a vehicle. These mechanisms have implemented several tools to analyze cognitive workload where the electroencephalographic (EEG) signals are the most used due to its high precision. However, one of the main challenges in the EEG signals implementing is finding the appropriate information to identify cognitive states. Here we show a new feature selection model for pattern recognition using information from EEG signals based on machine learning techniques called GALoRIS. GALoRIS combines Genetic Algorithms and Logistic Regression to create a new fitness function that identifies and selects the critical EEG features that contribute to recognizing high and low cognitive workload and structures a new dataset capable of optimizing the model's predictive process. We found that GALoRIS identifies data related to high and low cognitive workload of subjects while driving a vehicle using information extracted from multiple EEG signals, reducing the original dataset by more than 50%, maximizing the model's predictive capacity-achieving a precision rate greater than 90%.

While the use of crime data has been widely advocated in the literature, its availability is often limited to large urban cities and isolated databases tend not to allow for spatial comparisons. This paper presents an efficient machine learning framework capable of predicting spatial crime occurrences, without using past crime as a predictor, and at a relatively high resolution: the U.S. Census Block Group level. The proposed framework is based on an in-depth multidisciplinary literature review allowing the selection of 188 best-fit crime predictors from socio-economic, demographic, spatial, and environmental data. Such data are published periodically for the entire United States. The selection of the appropriate predictive model was made through a comparative study of different machine learning families of algorithms, including generalized linear models, deep learning, and ensemble learning. The gradient boosting model was found to yield the most accurate predictions for violent crimes, property crimes, motor vehicle thefts, vandalism, and the total count of crimes. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets of crimes reported in 11 U.S. cities demonstrated that the proposed framework achieves an accuracy of 73 and 77% when predicting property crimes and violent crimes, respectively.

In India the first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) reported on 30 January 2020, and thereafter cases were increasing daily after the last week of Feb. 2020. COVID-19 identified as family member of coronaviridae where previously Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS belongs to same family. The COVID-19 attacks on respiratory system signing fever, cough and breath shortness, in severe cases may cause pneumonia, SARS or some time death. The aim of this study work is to develop model which predicts the epidemic peak for COVID-19 in India by using the real-time data from 30 Jan to 10 May 2020. There are uncertainties while identifying the population information due to the incomplete and inaccurate data, we initiate the most popular model for epidemic prediction i.e Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, & Recovered SEIR initially the compartmental model for the prediction. Based on the solution of the state estimation problem for polynomial system with Poisson noise, we estimate that the epidemic peak may reach the early-middle July 2020, initializing recovered R0 to 0 and Infected I0 to 1. The outcomes of the model will help epidemiologist to isolate the source of the disease geospatially and analyze the death. Also government authorities will be able to target their interventions for rapidly checking the spread of the epidemic.

We examine the use of deep learning (neural networks) to predict the movement of the S&P 500 Index using past returns of all the stocks in the index. Our analysis finds that the future direction of the S&P 500 index can be weakly predicted by the prior movements of the underlying stocks in the index. Decomposition of the prediction error indicates that most of the lack of predictability comes from randomness and only a little from nonstationarity. We believe this is the first test of S&P500 market efficiency that uses a very large information set, and it extends the domain of weak-form market efficiency tests.

Falls are the third-leading cause of disabilities among the elderly population worldwide. In Pakistan, the prevalence is 44%; out of them, 8% develop injuries, placing them at high risk for hospitalization or even premature death. Interestingly, fall is multifactorial, and fall risk depends on individual characteristics (intrinsic factors) and environmental features (extrinsic factors), which can be different from context to context. Therefore, regular assessment of fall risk factors is required to develop a strategy for fall prevention. This study aimed to identify intrinsic risk factors for falls in Pakistani elders living in the communities, and provide evidence for preventive strategies of falls in elderlies. Data were collected from 140 Muslim elders from two residential areas of Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, from July 2022 to August 25, 2022, after taking permission from Zhengzhou University Ethical Review Board (ZUIRB #202254), and District Health Department Office (DHO #14207).Participants were informed and concern was taken before collect data. Data were collected using the Time Up and Go Test (TUGT), the Mini-Mental Status Examination, and interviews regarding the prayer practice. Factors associated with falls were; age, gender, education, cognitive status, TUGT level, incorrect prayer postures, poor vision, and history of falls with a significance of (P.<0.05). Poor cognition, low vision, poor walking speed, and prayers without body movements have good membership with falls risk prediction as (P<0.005) in Omnibus, Lemeshow score (0.77). Hence, our study provides a road map for future risk assessment for falls by adding the four mentioned risk factors as offered in the proposed model to facilitate taking timely action to prevent fall-related ailments in Pakistani elders.

The very first case of corona-virus illness was recorded on 30 January 2020, in India and the number of infected cases, including the death toll, continues to rise. In this paper, we present short-term forecasts of COVID-19 for 28 Indian states and five union territories using real-time data from 30 January to 20May 2020. Applying Holt’s second-order exponential smoothing method and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, we generated 10-day ahead forecasts of the likely number of infected cases and deaths in India until 29 May2020. Our results show that the number of cumulative cases in India will rise to169109 [PI 95% (14426, 19455)], concurrently the number of deaths may increase to 4863 [PI 95% (4221, 5551)] by 29 May 2020.Further, we have marked the states (e.g. Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Tamil Nadu) where outburst is expected by considering the cases above three standard deviations. Under the worst-case scenario, Maharashtra is likely to be the most affected state with around 62628 [PI 95% (52840, 73555)] cumulative cases by 29 May 2020. However, Kerala and Karnataka are likely to remain in the lesser affected region. The presented results mark the states where lockdown by 1 June2020, can be loosened.

As the oil industry increasingly turns to unconventional low-permeability and low-porosity reservoirs, precise post-fracture production prediction is a pivotal instrument in investment de-cision-making, formulation of energy policies, and promotion of environmental assessments. Nevertheless, despite extensive research spanning decades, the precise post-fracture production prediction based on logging parameters remains an intricate task. In this study, we gathered ex-tensive logging data and segmented the post-frac gas production during well testing on the first day to enrich the dataset. Nine pipelines were then architected using various techniques of data preprocessing, feature extraction, and advanced machine learning models. Hyperparameter op-timization was executed via the GridsearchCV. To assess the efficacy of diverse models, metrics including the coefficient of determination (R2), standard deviation (SD), and root mean square error (RMSE) were invoked. Among the several pipelines explored, the PS-NN exhibited excellent predictive capability in specific reservoir contexts (an R2 value of 0.94 and an RMSE of 48.15). In essence, integrating machine learning with logging parameters effectively assesses reservoir productivity at multi-meter formation scales. This strategy not only mitigates uncertainties en-demic to reservoir exploration but also equips petroleum engineers with monitoring on reservoir dynamics, thereby facilitating reservoir development. Additionally, this approach provides res-ervoir engineers with an efficient way of reservoir performance oversight.

The accurate prediction of heat load profiles with a daily resolution is required for a broad range of applications such as potential studies, design, or predictive operation of heating systems. If the heat demand of a consumer is mainly caused by (production) processes independent of the ambient temperature, existing load profile prediction methods fail. To close this gap, this study develops two ex post machine learning models for the prediction of the heat demand with a daily resolution. The selected input features are commonly available to each consumer connected to public natural gas and electricity grids or operating an energy monitoring system: Ambient temperature, weekday, electricity consumption, and heat consumption of the last seven days directly before the predicted day. The study’s database covers electricity and natural gas consumption load profiles from 82 German consumers over a period of two years. Electricity and heat consumption correlate strongly with individual patterns for many consumers. Both, shallow and deep learning algorithms are evaluated. The highest accuracy is achieved by a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) model with a median of R² of 0.94. The ex post model architecture makes the model suitable for automated anomaly detection in energy monitoring systems.

The accuracy of sales prediction models based on the big data of online word-of-mouth (eWOM) is still not satisfied. We argue that eWOM contains heat and sentiments of different product dimensions, which can improve the accuracy of these models. In this paper, we propose a dynamic topic analysis (DTA) framework in order to extract heat and sentiments of product dimensions from the big data of eWOM. Finally, we propose an autoregressive-heat-sentiment (ARHS) model, which integrates heat and sentiments of dimensions into the baseline predictive model. The empirical study in movie industry confirms that heat and sentiments of dimensions can improve the accuracy of sales prediction model. ARHS model is better for movie box-office revenue prediction than other models.

In automated manufacturing systems, most of the manufacturing processes including machining are automated. Automatic tool change is one of the important parameters for reducing manufacturing lead time. Ceramic cutting tools are used to machine hard materials. Ti[C,N] mixed alumina ceramic cutting tools are widely used to machine hardened steel and Stainless Steel due to its superior mechanical properties. Martensitic stainless steel has wide applications in screws, bolts, nuts and other engineering applications. Machining studies on Martensitic Stainless Steel was conducted using Ti[C,N] mixed alumina ceramic cutting tool. Tool life was evaluated using flank wear criterion. The tool life obtained from experimental machining process was taken as training dataset and test dataset for machine learning. Using the dataset obtained from experimental machining tool life model has been developed using Gradient Descent algorithm. The model was validated using co-efficient of determination. The accuracy of the machine learning model was tested using the test data and 99.83% accuracy was obtained. Tool life model based on Gradient Descent Algorithm was successfully implemented for the tool life of Ti[C,N] mixed alumina ceramic cutting tool.Keywords: keyword 1; keyword 2; keyword 3 (List three to ten pertinent keywords specific to the article; yet reasonably common within the subject discipline.)

This study describes the AMD impacted environments and critically discusses the effects of AMD, current prediction and prevention methods and treatment technologies. The study further, crit-ically analyses the case studies, gaps in AMD research and the challenges and opportunities of-fered by AMD. The study outlined future technological intervention aiming at a paradigm shift towards reducing the volume of sludge generated as well as the operating cost and improving AMD treatment efficiency. The integrated AMD treatment technologies that result in a holistic approach toward sustainable AMD treatment are a current need. As a result, a sustainable AMD treatment strategy has been made possible due to water reuse and rich resource recoveries such sulphuric acid, rare earth elements, and metals. The cost of AMD treatment can be decreased with the use of recovered water and resources, which is essential for developing a sustainable AMD treatment process.

Tephra plumes can cause a significant hazard for surrounding towns, infrastructure, and air traffic. The current work presents the use of a small and compact X-band Multi-Parameter (X-MP) radar for the remote tephra detection and tracking of two eruptive events at Merapi Volcano, Indonesia, in May and June 2018. Tephra detection was done by analysing the multiple parameters of radar: copolar correlation and reflectivity intensity. These parameters were used to cancel unwanted clutter and retrieve tephra properties, which are grain size and concentration. Real-time spatial and temporal forecasting of tephra dispersal was performed by applying an advection scheme (nowcasting) in the manner of Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). Cross-validation was done using field-survey data, radar observations, and Himawari-8 imagery. The nowcasting model computed both the displacement and growth and decaying rate of the plume based on the temporal changes in two-dimensional movement and tephra concentration, respectively. Our results with ground-based data, where the radar-based estimated grain size distribution fell within the range of in-situ data. The uncertainty of real-time forecasted tephra plume depends on the initial condition, which affects the growth-and decaying rate estimation. The EPS improves the predictability rate by reducing the number of missed and false forecasted events. Our findings and the method presented here are suitable for early warning of tephra fall hazard at the local scale.

The cost to train a basic qualified U.S. Navy fighter aircraft pilot is nearly $10M. The training includes primary, intermediate, and advanced stages, with the advanced stage involving extensive flight training and being very expensive as a result. Despite the screening tests in place and early-stage attrition taking place, 4.5% of aviators undergo attrition in this most expensive stage. Key reasons for aviator attrition include poor flight scores, voluntary withdrawals, and medical causes. Reduction in late-stage attrition offers several financial and operational benefits to the U.S. Navy. To that end, this research leverages feature extraction and machine-learning techniques on the very sparse flight test grades of student aviators to identify those with a high risk of attrition early in training. Using about 10 years of historical U.S. Navy pilot training data, trained models accurately predicted 50% of attrition with a 4% false positive rate. Such models could help the U.S. Navy save nearly $20M a year in attrition costs. In addition, machine-learning models were trained that can recommend a suitable training aircraft type for each student aviator. These capabilities could help better answer the need for pilots and reduce the time and cost to train them.

Accurate forecast of tail water level (TWL) is of great importance for the safe and economic operation and management of hydropower stations. The predictive performance is significantly influenced by the backwater effect of downstream hydropower stations and tributaries, but the explicit quantification method of the backwater effect is lacked. In this study, a deep learning model based forecasting framework for TWL predictions is established and applied to forecast TWL of Xiangjiaba (XJB) hydropower stations, which is influenced by the backwater effect of downstream tributaries including Hengjiang River (HJR) and Minjiang River (MJR). Firstly, the lag time of the backwater effect of HJR and MJR is analyzed based on the permutation importance. The results demonstrate that the lag time of backwater effect on the TWL of XJB is 5-7 hours for the HJR and 1-2 hours for the MJR. Then, the runoff thresholds of the HJR and MJR for impacting the TWL of the XJB station are obtained by scenario comparison, and the results show that the thresholds of HJR and MJR are 700 m3/s and 7000 m3/s respectively. Finally, the deep learning methods based TWL forecasting model is established based on the lag time and threshold analysis. The model is used to forecast the TWL in future 48 hours. The results show that the forecasting model has a good predictive performance with 98.22% of absolute errors less than 20 cm. The mean absolute error over the validation dataset is 5.27 cm and the maximum absolute error is 63.35 cm.

Entangled metallic wire material (EMWM) can be utilized as a novel elastic element in vibration isolation devices for mechanical actuators. This paper presents a vibration experiment aimed at investigating the degradation behavior of mechanical performance in EMWM under cyclic compressive environment. An electric vibration testing system, coupled with an isolation structure, is employed to apply compressive loads to the EMWM specimens. Through visual observations and quasi-static compression tests, the variations in geometric morphology and mechanical properties are studied, considering different relative densities and stress amplitudes. The results incidate a significant reduction in the compressed dimension of the specimens as the number of cycles increases, without any wire fractures or wear. Moreover, the mechanical properties exhibit an increasing secant modulus and a decreasing loss factor. These variations ultimately lead to a gradual deviation of the vibration characteristics of the isolation structure from its design state. To predict the mechanical property degradation of EMWM, prediction models are proposed, incorporating dimension, modulus and damping by fitting the obtained results. This research provides valuable experimental data and presents an effective method to determine the operational lifetime of vibration isolators utilizing EMWM.

The assimilation of Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) data into the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) H-TESSEL (Hydrology revised - Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land) model is presented. SMOS soil moisture (SM) estimates have been produced specifically by training a neural network with SMOS brightness temperatures as input and H-TESSEL model SM simulations as reference. This can help the assimilation of SMOS information in several ways: (1) the neural network soil moisture (NNSM) data have a similar climatology to the model, (2) no global bias is present with respect to the model even if regional differences can exist. Experiments performing joint data assimilation (DA) of NNSM, 2 metre air temperature and relative humidity or NNSM-only DA are discussed. The resulting SM was evaluated against a large number of in situ measurements of SM obtaining similar results to those of the model with no assimilation, even if significant differences were found from site to site. In addition, atmospheric forecasts initialized with H-TESSEL runs (without DA) or with the analysed SM were compared to measure of the impact of the satellite information. Although, NNSM DA has an overall neutral impact in the forecast in the Tropics, a significant positive impact was found in other areas and periods, especially in regions with limited in situ information. The joint NNSM, T2m and RH2m DA improves the forecast for all the seasons in the Southern Hemisphere. The impact is mostly due to T2m and RH2m, but SMOS NN DA alone also improves the forecast in July- September. In the Northern Hemisphere, the joint NNSM, T2m and RH2m DA improves the forecast in April-September, while NNSM alone has a significant positive effect in July-September. Furthermore, forecasting skill maps show that SMOS NNSM improves the forecast in North America and in Northern Asia for up to 72 hours lead time.

Background. COVID-19 efforts were often ineffective in controlling the spread of the pandemic. Identifying ineffective controls during a pandemic is thus vital. Method. Utilizing publicly available data on COVID deaths in the counties of US states, we create an index to capture and interpret ineffectiveness in the efforts to reduce the spread of the pandemic in US counties. This index is based on the Intervened Poisson Distribution (IPD) introduced originally by Shanmugam. Motivation for the research idea occurred while we noticed the data dispersion of the COVID deaths is smaller than the average only in some counties. Under-dispersed data is common in statistical modeling. A novel approach we adapted in this article includes the estimation of an intervention parameter estimated through iterative non-linear optimization. Results. Twenty-five counties in California, Idaho, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Texas, and Utah were found to be ineffective in controlling for fatalities based on the expected probability distribution. A review of the policies enacted in these areas would provide insight into ineffective prevention efforts, and some of these issues are documented in current literature. Conclusion. The IPD index an innovate way to document efficacy of interventions during pandemics. The IPD may identify ineffective efforts prior to statistical models intended to evaluate efficacy of efforts.

Human civilizations are under enormous threats due to the outbreak of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) originated from Wuhan, China. The asymptomatic carriers are the potential spreads of this novel virus. Since, guaranteed antiviral treatments have not been available in the market so far, it is really challenging to fight against this contagious disease. To save the living mankind, it is urgent to know more about how the virus transmits itself from one to another quite rapidly and how we can predict future infections. Scientists and Researchers are working hard in investigating to understand its high infection rate and transmission process. One possible way to know is to use our existing COVID-19 infection data and prepare a useful model to predict the future trend. Mathematical modelling is very useful to understand the basic principle of COVID-19 transmission and provide necessary guidelines for future prediction. Here, we have reviewed 9 distinct commonly used models based on Mathematical implementations for COVID-19 transmission and dig into the deep head to head comparison of each model. Finally, we have discussed interesting key behaviour of each model, relevant upcoming important issues, challenges and future directions.

Dynamic measurement error correction is an effective method to improve the sensor precision. Dynamic measurement error prediction is an important part of error correction, support vector machine (SVM) is often used to predicting the dynamic measurement error of sensors. Traditionally, the parameters of SVM were always set by manual, which can not ensure the model’s performance. In this paper, a method of SVM based on an improved particle swarm optimization (NAPSO) is proposed to predict the dynamic measurement error of sensors. Natural selection and Simulated annealing are added in PSO to raise the ability to avoid local optimum. To verify the performance of NAPSO-SVM, three types of algorithms are selected to optimize the SVM’s parameters, they are the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO), the improved PSO optimization algorithm (NAPSO), and the glowworm swarm optimization (GSO). The dynamic measurement error data of two sensors are applied as the test data. The root mean squared error and mean absoluter percentage error are employed to evaluate the prediction models’ performances. The experiment results show that the NAPSO-SVM has a better prediction precision and a less prediction errors among the three algorithms, and it is an effective method in predicting dynamic measurement errors of sensors.

While the simple model of the total atmospheric carbon sink effect as a linear function of concentration has provided excellent prediction results, several problems remained to be investigated and solved. The most obvious open issue is the correct treatment of land use change emssions. It turns out that the model improves by mostly neglecting them after 1959. This effectively implies that land use change emissions have been constant and small since then. The key investigation starts with the observation, that the total carbon sink has a short term component which be explained by temperature changes commonly known as El Nin˜o. The apparent paradox is analysed and explained, why contrary to the short term changes no temperature caused trend can be detected in the model, despite the fact that several contributing processes exhibit temperature dependency. The result of this analysis leads to the model extension, where the total effect of sinks and natural emissions are a linear function of concentration and temperature. This model not only explains current measurements but also paleo climate from ice-core time series.

Recently, NOAA has included GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) Radio Occultation (RO) data as one of the crucial long-term observables for weather and climate applications. To include more GNSS RO data in the numerical weather prediction system, the NOAA Commercial Weather Data Pilot program (CWDP) started to explore the commercial RO data available on the market. After two rounds of pilot studies, the CDWP decided to award the first Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) contract to GeoOptics and Spire Incs. in 2020. This study examines the quality of Spire data products for weather and climate applications. Spire RO data are collected from commercial CubeSats through careful comparison with the data from Formosa Satellite Mission 7–Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate-2 (COSMIC-2), ERA-5, and high-quality radiosonde data. The results demonstrated that although with lower Signal-Noise-Ratio (SNR) in general, the pattern of the lowest penetration height for Spire is similar to those for COSMIC-2. The Spire and COSMIC-2 penetrate heights are between 0.6 and 0.8 km altitude at the tropical oceans. Although using different GNSS RO receivers, the precision of Spire STRASP receivers is of the same quality as those of COSMIC-2 Global Positioning System - GPS, GALILEO, and GLObal NAvigation Satellite System – GLONASS (TGRS) receivers. The retrieval accuracy from Spire is very compatible with those from COSMIC-2. We validated Spire temperature and water vapor profiles by comparing them with collocated radiosonde data. Generally, over the height region between 8 km and 16.5 km, the Spire temperature profiles match those from RS41 RAOB very well with temperature biases &lt; 0.02 K. Over the height range from 17.8 to 26.4 km, the temperature differences are ~-0.034 K with RS41 RAOB being warmer. We also estimated the error covariance matrix for Spire, COSMIC-2, and KOMPSAT-5. Results showed that the COSMIC-2 estimated error covariance values are slightly more significant over the oceans at the mid-latitudes (45oN-30oN and 30oS-45oS), which may also be owing to COSMIC-2 SNR being lower at those latitudinal zones.

Accurate retroperitoneal lymph node metastasis (LNM) prediction in early-stage testicular germ cell tumours (TGCT) harbours the potential to significantly reduce over- or undertreatment and treatment-related morbidity in this group of young patients as an important survivorship imperative. We investigated the role of computed tomography (CT) radiomics models integrating clinical predictors for the individualized prediction of LNM in early-stage TGCT. Ninety-one patients with surgically proven testicular germ cell tumours and contrast-enhanced CT were included in this retrospective study. Dedicated radiomics software was used to segment 273 retroperitoneal lymph nodes and extract features. After feature selection, radiomics-based machine learning models were developed to predict LN metastasis. The robustness of the procedure was controlled by 10-fold cross-validation. Using multivariable logistic regression modelling, we developed three prediction models: A radiomics-only model, a clinical-only model and a combined radiomics-clinical model. The models' performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Finally, decision curve analysis was performed to estimate the clinical usefulness of the predictive model. The radiomics-only model for predicting lymph node metastasis reached a greater discrimination power than the clinical-only model, with an AUC of 0.84 (± 0.17; 95% CI ) vs 0.60 (± 0.22; 95% CI) in our study cohort. The combined model integrating clinical risk factors and selected radiomics features outperformed the clinical-only and the radiomics-only prediction models and showed good discrimination with an area under the curve of 0.94 ( ± 0.10; 95% CI). The decision curve analysis demonstrated the clinical usefulness of our proposed combined model. The presented combined CT-based radiomics-clinical model represents an exciting non-invasive prediction tool for individualized prediction of LN metastasis in testicular germ cell tumours. Multi-centre validation is required to generate high-quality evidence for its clinical application.

Life evolved in an euxinic world with subsequent oxic 'invasion' leading to two parallel but interconnected biospheres, hydrogen sulphide (H₂S) and hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂) exemplify these worlds respectively. Their concentration gradients have informational value in meromictic lakes. Similarly, it is posited, there exists a whole body chemocline in humans in which the two molecules form an inversely coupled oxic/sulphidic oscillator (OSO). The OSO is hormetic and characterised by a range of amplitudes and frequencies in health. Deviations from its baseline profile heralds the onset of SIRS before the appearance of clinical signs. Loss of oscillator status and transition to a steady state causes widespread intercellular and inter-organ communication failure presaging multi-organ dysfunction. The salient clinico-pathophysiological features of SIRS of any aetiology are emergent phenomena related to the OSO profile. Extent of recovery of organ function will mirror the recovery of the OSO profile thereby providing a tool to predict outcomes in SIRS.

Global climate change, dominated by climate warming, is seriously affecting the balance of global ecosystems, but the risk of species extinction is particularly high in low-altitude mountain areas. To clarify the response of the endemic and critically endangered species Ilex nanchuanensis to climate change, this study used the MaxEnt model to simulate and predict the potential habitat of I. nanchuanensis during the Last Interglacial, Last Glacial Maximum, the current period, and two future periods (the 2050s and 2070s). The results showed that the hottest monthly minimum temperature is the most important climatic factor affecting the geographical distribution of I. nanchuanensis. Furthermore, I. nanchuanensis will be at risk of population shrinkage and extinction in the future, with the center of mass moving further northwest as concentrations of greenhouse gases increase, especially in the 2070s, when its geographical distribution shrinks the most under the RCP6 scenario. Global warming is causing habitat degradation for many species and will continue to migrate to higher altitudes and latitudes in the future, seriously affecting the global ecosystem balance. Therefore, to actively respond to the impacts of climate change, protected areas should be established around the geographical distribution centers of species, and core, buffer, and experimental areas should be scientifically and rationally delineated for the conservation and cultivation of germplasm resources.

This article presents a forecast model that uses a hybrid architecture of recurrent neural networks (RNN) with surface neural networks (ANN), based on historical records of exported active energy (EAE) and weather data. Two types of models were developed: the first type includes six models that use EAE records and weather variables as inputs, while the second type includes eight models that use only weather variables. Different metrics were applied to assess the performance of these models, and the best model of each type was selected. Finally, a comparison of the performance between the selected models of both types is presented, and they are validated with real data provided by a solar plant, achieving acceptable levels of accuracy. The selected model of the first type has an RMSE of 0.19, MSE of 0.03, MAE of 0.09, a correlation coefficient of 0.96, and a determination coefficient of 0.93. The other selected model of the second type showed lower precision in the metrics (RMSE = 0.24, MSE = 0.06, MAE = 0.10, Corr. Coef. = 0.95, and Det. Coef. = 0.90). Both models demonstrated good performance and acceptable accuracy in forecasting the weekly photovoltaic energy production of the solar plant.

Predicting trip purpose from comprehensive and continuous smart card data is beneficial for transport and city planners in investigating travel behaviours and urban mobility. Here we propose a framework, ActivityNET, using machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict passengers’ trip purpose from smart card data and Points-of-Interest (POIs) data. The feasibility of the framework is demonstrated in two phases. Phase I focuses on extracting activities from individuals’ daily travel patterns from smart card data and combining them with POIs using the proposed ‘activity-POIs consolidation algorithm’. Phase II feeds the extracted features into an artificial neural network (ANN) with multiple scenarios and predicts trip purpose under primary activities (home and work) and secondary activities (entertainment, eating, shopping, child drop-offs/pick-ups and part-time work) with high accuracy. As a case study, the proposed ActivityNET framework is applied in Greater London and illustrates a robust competence to predict trip purpose. The promising outcomes demonstrate that the cost-effective framework offers high predictive accuracy and valuable insights into transport planning.

The proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) is a critical and essential component of zero-emission electro-hydrogen generators. An accurate prediction of its performance is important for optimal operation management and preventive maintenance of these generators. However, the prediction is not simple because the PEMFCs have complex electrochemical reactions with multiple nonlinear relations between operating variables as inputs and voltage as output. In this paper, we propose an efficient prediction approach based on XGBRegressor and Tree-structured Parzen Estimator. In addition, to better select relevant features, Kernel Principal Component Analysis and Mutual Information are jointly used. The proposed approach allows consideration of the dynamic operating conditions of the PEMFC. To test and validate the robustness of the proposed approach, a real data-set of ten PEMFCs was considered. Furthermore, a comparison study with traditional machine learning models, such as artificial neural networks and support vector machine regression, was investigated. The obtained results confirm that our model outperforms the considered traditionel machine learning models.

An application of deep convolutional neural network and recurrence plot for financial market movement prediction is presented. Though it is challenging and subjective to interpret its information, the pattern formed by a recurrence plot provide a useful insight into the dy- namical system. We used a recurrence plot of seven financial time series to train a deep neural network for financial market movement predic- tion. Our approach is tested on our dataset and achieved an average of 53.25% classification accuracy. The result suggests that a well trained deep convolutional neural network can learn a recurrence plot and pre- dict a financial market direction.

We write the mutual information between an input speech utterance and its reconstruction by a Code-Excited Linear Prediction (CELP) codec in terms of the mutual information between the input speech and the contributions due to the short term predictor, the adaptive codebook, and the fixed codebook. We then show that a recently introduced quantity, the log ratio of entropy powers, can be used to estimate these mutual informations in terms of bits/sample. A key result is that for many common distributions and for Gaussian autoregressive processes, the entropy powers in the ratio can be replaced by the corresponding minimum mean squared errors. We provide examples of estimating CELP codec performance using the new results and compare to the performance of the AMR codec and other CELP codecs. Similar to rate distortion theory, this method only needs the input source model and the appropriate distortion measure.

Software is playing the most important role in recent vehicle innovation, and consequently the amount of software has been rapidly growing last decades. Safety-critical nature of ships, one sort of vehicles, makes Software Quality Assurance (SQA) has gotten to be a fundamental prerequisite. Just-In-Time Software Defect Prediction (JIT-SDP) aims to conduct software defect prediction (SDP) on commit-level code changes to achieve effective SQA resource allocation. The first case study of SDP in maritime domain reported feasible prediction performance. However, we still consider that the prediction model has still rooms for improvement since the parameters of the model are not optimized yet. Harmony Search (HS) is a widely used music-inspired meta-heuristic optimization algorithm. In this article, we demonstrated that JIT-SDP can produce the better performance of prediction by applying HS-based parameter optimization with balanced fitness value. Using two real-world datasets from the maritime software project, we obtained an optimized model that meets the performance criterion beyond baseline of previous case study throughout various defect to non-defect class imbalance ratio of datasets. Experiments with open source software also showed better recall for all datasets despite we considered balance as performance index. HS-based parameter optimized JIT-SDP can be applied to the maritime domain software with high class imbalance ratio. Finally, we expect that our research can be extended to improve performance of JIT-SDP not only in maritime domain software but also in open source software.

Lymphoma diagnoses in the U.S. are substantial, with an estimated 89,380 new cases in 2023, necessitating innovative treatment approaches. Phase 1 clinical trials play a pivotal role in this context. We developed a binary predictive model to assess trial adherence to expected average durations, analyzing 1,089 completed Phase 1 lymphoma trials from clinicaltrials.gov. Using machine learning, the Random Forest model demonstrated high efficacy with an accuracy of 0.7248 and ROC-AUC of 0.7701 for lymphoma trials. Importantly, this model maintained an accuracy of 0.7405 when applied to lung cancer trials, showcasing its versatility. A key insight is the correlation between higher predicted probabilities and extended trial durations, offering nuanced insights beyond binary predictions. Our research contributes to enhanced clinical research planning and potential improvements in patient outcomes in oncology.

As development progresses, when the bottom hole flowing pressure or formation pressure is less than the saturation pressure of crude oil in the reservoir, oil and gas two-phase seepage occurs in the reservoir. Due to the characteristics of oil and gas two-phase seepage, after the oil and gas two-phase seepage occurs in the reservoir, the well production will be reduced, or even greatly reduced. Therefore, how to predict the horizontal well capacity better in this case is an important problem that needs to be solved urgently. In this paper, the method and process of establishing the transient calculation model of two-phase flow in horizontal wells are introduced in detail from three aspects: fluid physical properties, reservoir oil-gas two-phase seepage, and the coupling model of Inflow Performance and Flow in Wellbore. The model is more reliable through the verification of production data from five wells in two oilfields.

Taste determination in small molecules is critical in food chemistry, but traditional experimental methods can be time-consuming. Consequently, computational techniques have emerged as val-uable tools for this task. In this study, we explore taste prediction using various molecular feature representations and assess the performance of different machine learning algorithms on a dataset comprising 2,601 molecules. The results reveal that GNN-based models outperform other ap-proaches in taste prediction. Moreover, consensus models that combine diverse molecular repre-sentations demonstrate improved performance. Among these, molecular fingerprints + GNN con-sensus model emerges as the top performer, highlighting the complementary strengths of GNNs and molecular fingerprints. These findings have significant implications for food chemistry research and related fields. By leveraging these computational approaches, taste prediction can be expedited, leading to advancements in understanding the relationship between molecular structure and taste perception in various food components and related compounds.

The future of the Colorado River water supply (WS) affects millions of people and the U.S. economy. A recent study suggested a cross-basin correlation between the Colorado River and its neighboring Great Salt Lake (GSL). Following that study, the feasibility of using the previously developed multi-year prediction of the GSL water level to forecast the Colorado River WS was tested. Time-series models were developed to predict the changes in WS out to 10 years. Regressive methods and the GSL water level data were used for the depiction of decadal variability of the Colorado River WS. Various time-series models suggest a decline in the 10-year-averaged WS since 2013 before starting to increase around 2020. Comparison between this WS prediction and the WS projection published in a 2012 government report (derived from climate models) reveals a widened imbalance between supply and demand by 2020. Further research to update similar multi-year prediction of the Colorado River WS is needed. Such information could aid in management decision making in the face of future water shortages.

The propeller jet from a ship has a significant component directed upwards towards the free surface of the water, which can be used for ice management. This paper describes a comprehensive laboratory experiment where the influences of operational factors affecting a propeller wake velocity field were investigated. The experiment was done on a steady wake field to investigate the characteristics of the axial velocity of the fluid in the wake and the corresponding variability downstream of the propeller. The axial velocities and the variability recorded were time-averaged. Propeller rotational speed was found to be the most significant factor, followed by propeller inclination. The experimental results also provide some idea about the change of the patterns of the mean axial velocity distribution against the factors considered for the test throughout the effective wake field, as well as the relationships to predict the axial velocity for known factors.

Coastal marine ecosystems worldwide, like Florida Bay, are increasingly affected by tide alteration and anthropogenic disturbances which affect water quality imbalance leading to algal blooms. Increased bloom persistence is a serious threat due to the long-lasting impact on processes like carbon cycle and services like species presence. However, exploring eco-environmental feedback patterns of algal blooms remains challenging and poorly investigated, also due to the paucity of data. Florida Bay, taken as an epitome, has long experienced algal blooms in its central and western regions, and in 2006 an unprecedented bloom occurred in the eastern habitats. We analyzed the occurrence of blooms from three perspectives: (1) the spatial spreading networks of chlorophyll-a (CHLa) that pinpoints source and unbalanced habitats; (2) the fluctuations of water quality factors pre- and post-bloom outbreaks to in assess environmental impacts of ecological dysbiosis and target prevention and control of algal of blooms; and (3) the biogeochemical-spreading network topological co-evolution to quantify ecosystemic stability and ecological shift likelihood in long-term. Here, we propose Transfer Entropy (TE) to quantify dynamical interactions between spatial areas and biogeochemical factors (ecosystem connectome) underpinning bloom emergence and spreading, as well as environmental effects; the Pareto principle is defined for identifying the salient eco-environmental interactions of CHLa. We quantified the spatial dynamics of algal blooms, and thus obtained areas in need for ecological monitoring and potential bloom control. Results show that algal blooms are increasingly persistent over space with long-term negative effects on water quality factor. A dichotomy is reported between spatial ecological corridors of spreading and biogeochemical networks as well as divergence from the optimal eco-organization: randomization of the former due to nutrients' overload and temperature increase leads to scale-free CHLa spreading and extreme outbreaks a posteriori. Subsequently this increases bloom persistence, turbidity and salinity with potentially strong ecological effects on highly biodiverse and vulnerable areas such as tidal flats and marshes. Algal blooms are important ecosystem regulators of nutrient cycles; however, beyond limit chlorophyll-a outbreaks cause aquatic species mortality due to their effect on water turbidity, nutrient balance (nitrogen and phosphorus in particular), salinity and temperature. Beyond compromising local environmental quality, socio-ecological services are also compromised at large scales, yet ecological assessment models like the one presented are in need of application in subtropical and tropical bays worldwide.

During the last years, the increasing evidence of dietary antioxidant compounds and reducing chronic diseases and the relationship between diet and health have promoted an important innovation on the baked product sector, aiming at healthier formulations. This study aims to develop a tool based on mathematical models to predict baked goods total antioxidant capacity (TAC). The high variability of antioxidant properties of flours based on the aspects related to type of grains, varieties, proximal composition and processing, among others, makes very difficult to innovate on food product development without specific analysis. Using Total phenol content (TP), Oxygen radical absorbance capacity (ORAC) and Ferric reducing antioxidant power assay (FRAP) as proxies of antioxidant capacity. Three Bayesian-type models are proposed based on a double exponential parameterised curve that reflects the initial decrease and subsequent increase as a consequence of the observed processes of degradation and generation, respectively, of the antioxidant compounds. Once the values of the main parameters of each curve have been determined, support vector machines (SVR) with exponential kernel were used to predict, based on the temperature and duration of baking as well as the values of proteins and fibers of each native grain, the values of TAC during the baking time.

Asphalt pavement temperature has several applications, including pavement structural design and evaluation, asphalt mixture design, asphalt binder grade determination and material aging characterization. However, available asphalt pavement temperature prediction models were mostly developed for temperate climatic conditions, outside of the tropics. Before such models are adopted for use in a tropical climate, their applicability must be evaluated. This study evaluated five empirical asphalt pavement temperature prediction models developed by Lukanen et al. [1], Park et al. [2], Diefenderfer et al. [3], Taamneh [4] all in the United States and Asefzadeh et al. [5] in Canada to ascertain their prediction accuracy in tropical climate, using Ghana as a case study. In-situ asphalt pavement temperature data were measured at two sites for eight months: Kumasi and Tamale in the Forest and Savannah climatic zones, respectively. The measured pavement temperature data were statistically compared with predicted temperatures, and it was found that the Park et al. [2] model provided a more accurate pavement temperature prediction in both climatic zones. The other models either over-predicted or under-predicted asphalt pavement temperature with significant error margins. However, there is a need to improve the prediction accuracy of the Park et al. [2] model or a local model developed.

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) are associated with diseases and drug response variabilities in humans. Elucidating the damaging and disease-associated SNPs using wet-laboratory approaches can be challenging and resource-demanding due to the large number of SNPs in the human genome. Due to the growth in the field of computational biology and bioinformatics, algorithms have been developed to help screen and filter out the most deleterious SNPs that are worth considering for wet-laboratory studies. Here we review the existing in-silico based methods used to predict and characterize the effects of SNPs on protein structure and function. This cutting-edge approach will facilitate the search for novel therapeutics, help understand the etiology of diseases and fast-track the personalized medicine agenda.

The use of machine learning techniques in predictive health care is on the rise with minimal data used for training machine-learning models to derive high accuracy predictions. In this paper, we propose such a system, which utilizes Heart Rate Variability (HRV) as features for training machine learning models. This paper further benchmarks the usefulness of HRV as features calculated from basic heart-rate data using a window shifting method. The benchmarking has been conducted using different machine-learning classifiers such as artificial neural network, decision tree, k-nearest neighbour and naive bays classifier. Empirical results using MIT-BIH Arrhythmia database shows that the proposed system can be used for highly efficient predictability of abnormality in heartbeat data series.

Environmental monitoring systems play a crucial role in assessing environmental quality, detecting limits exceedances, and predicting potential ecological episodes. These systems rely on the measurement of various variables at specific locations and time intervals over an extended period. The concept of environmental monitoring encompasses the assessment of health and safety issues for public and environmental health purposes. Pollution of the atmosphere and water, climate change, and natural disasters are among the consequences of continuous industrial and municipal development and human interference in natural ecosystems. To address these challenges and to protect human lives and the environment, with a special concern on mitigating the ecological effects of industrial development, advanced technical solutions, including the technologies associated with artificial intelligence (artificial neural networks ANNs, machine learning ML) have been developed. These technologies offer powerful tools for analysing the vast amount of data collected by monitoring systems and extracting valuable insights. By applying ANNs and machine learning algorithms, environmental monitoring systems can effectively process and interpret the measured variables to assess environmental quality. Despite challenges and limitations, such as data quality and interpretability of AI models, ongoing research and interdisciplinary collaboration are paving the way for the successful implementation of AI in environmental monitoring, ultimately supporting informed decision-making and sustainable resource management.While several review papers have explored the theory of artificial intelligence (AI), here I aim to review the application of ANNs and ML, in environmental aspects, specifically in automotive and industrial emissions toxicity measurements, as well as atmospheric pollution prevention. By examining the potential of AI in these domains, the paper contributes to understanding the role of advanced technologies in environmental monitoring and protection.

The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) has classified papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) into indolent RAS-like and aggressive BRAF-like based on its distinct driver gene mutations. This study aimed to assess clinicopathology and pERK1/2 expression variations between BRAF-like and RAS-like PTCs and establish predictive models for BRAFV600E and RAS-mutated PTCs. A total of 222 PTCs underwent immunohistochemistry staining to assess pERK1/2 expression and Sanger sequencing to analyze the BRAF and RAS genes. Multivariate logistic regression was employed to develop prediction model. Independent predictors for the BRAFV600E mutation include a nuclear score of 3, the absence of capsules, an aggressive histology variant, and pERK1/2 levels exceeding 10% (X2=0.128, P&gt;0.05, AUC=0.734, P&lt;0.001). RAS mutation predictive model includes follicular histology variant and pERK1/2 expression &gt;10% (X2=0.174, P&gt;0.05, AUC=0.8, P&lt;0.001). We proposed using the prediction model concurrently with four potential combination group outcomes. PTC cases included in combination of low BRAFV600E-scoring group and high RAS-scoring group are categorized as RAS-like (adjOR=4.857, P=0.01, 95% CI=1.470-16.049). PTCs included in combination of high BRAFV600E-scoring group and low RAS-scoring group are categorized as BRAF-like PTCs (adjOR=3.091, P=0.001, 95% CI=1.594-5.995). The different prediction models indicate variations in biological behaviour between BRAF-like and RAS-like PTCs, necessitating adjustments in treatment approaches.

ABSTRACT Background Ubiquitination plays an important role in protein post-translational processes and has been found to be involved in a number of regulatory functions including proteasome degradation, DNA repair, transcription, signal transduction, endocytosis, and sorting. As the identification of ubiquitination site is critical to furthering our understanding of the mechanism of ubiquitination, various experimental and machine learning methods have been used to conduct this task. It has been an important but challenging task to improve the accuracy of ubiquitination site prediction. In this research, we explore the possibility of improving the prediction performance of machine learning by incorporating grid search in the training process. Method We developed grid search procedures for each of six widely used machine learning methods including NB, LR, DT, SVM, LASSO, and KNN, and applied them to ubiquitination site prediction using the six PCP datasets that were previously developed. For each of the ML methods, we developed a set of values for each of the tunable hyperparameters available to the method. These sets of values then can be combined to form a large grid of hyperparameter settings, and each of these settings is used in the grid search. We integrated 5-fold cross-validation in grid search to train and test ML models and applied an additional independent validation procedure by conducting a pre-training 80-20 sample split. We evaluated the performance of the six methods by comparing them side by side for each of the six datasets. We also compared the grid search results with the results that were previously published without doing grid search. To optimize the prediction performance, we trained 1.1 million ML models in total through grid search. Results We compared the overall prediction performance of these six methods, as well as their prediction performance when working with balanced vs. imbalanced data, and large-scale vs. small-scale data. From the perspective of dataset, we find that the overall performance of every PCP dataset has been significantly improved in this study compared to the previous study, with the percentage increase of the average AUC of all six datasets ranging from 7.9% (PCP-4) up to 17.0% (PCP-1). From the perspective of method, we find that three out of four methods significantly benefit from grid search comparing to their previously published non-grid search results, with the maximum AUC improvement as high as 47% (LASSO on PCP-5), 43.3% (NB on PCP-1), and 33.7% (SVM on PCP-6). SVM overall ranks number one, followed by KNN as the number two performer based on their average AUCs on all datasets. But these two also ranked the top two (KNN 76 days and SVM 15 days) in terms of the total running time that they need to do grid search. We also find that SVM, KNN, and DT tend to handle small-scale and imbalanced datasets better, while LR, and LASSO are doing well with large-scale and balanced datasets. NB is more sensitive to data imbalance while less sensitive to the size of a dataset. Conclusions Our results show that using grid search has improved the performance of ubiquitination prediction significantly. We find that the performance of a method is closely related to its hyperparameter setting and the type of data it handles. Even though SVM is on average an outperformer, none of the methods can provide the best performance for all datasets. When sufficient computing resources are well accessible, grid search is an effective way to identify both a top performing model for a machine learning method and a suitable machine learning method for a particular dataset.

Background and Objectives: Peripheral vertigo is one of the most common symptoms for which patients are seen by a neurologist in the emergency room. Symptoms of peripheral vertigo can range from lightheadedness to an illusion of spinning. On average, vertigo is diagnosed for older patients as its predicting factors from medical history are yet to be determined. The objective of the study was to predict peripheral vertigo based on medical history and risk factors. Materials and Methods: A prospective case-control study at the Neurology Department of Lithuanian University Hospital was conducted. 71 patients diagnosed with vertigo and 43 controls was included. They completed questionnaires and underwent evaluation by neurologists or otolaryngologists, with statistical analysis performed using IBM SPSS Statistics. Results: 58% of vertigo patients were diagnosed with peripheral vertigo, with significant predictors including age (&gt;60), motion sickness, height intolerance, gastroesophageal reflux disease and dyslipidemia, leading to the development of a risk assessment table for the peripheral vertigo prediction. Conclusions: This study suggest that early identification of these predictors could enhance peripheral vertigo management, while further research with larger cohorts is needed to validate and expand upon these findings, emphasizing the importance of considering medical history and risk factors for predicting peripheral vertigo and improving patient care.

Cuproptosis, a copper-dependent cellular death mechanism, is typically overlooked in glioblastoma diagnosis. Lipoylation is needed for cuproptosis, and FDX1 controls this process. Cuproptosis in prognostic models may drive cancer treatment. This study evaluated cuproptosis and glioblastoma cell proliferation. The Cancer Genome Atlas provided annotated clinical, genetic mutation, and RNA sequencing data for the TCGA_GBM and TCGA_LGG cohorts. Patients with gliomas were randomly allocated to the validation or training cohort. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariate Cox regression models were utilized to evaluate which model best predicted prognosis in the training cohort. The models' independent predictive power was evaluated throughout the cohort. A previous study revealed 19 genes related to ferroptosis. LncRNAs associated with cuproptosis were identified by coexpression analysis. Cox discovered 17 cuproptosis-associated lncRNAs and established a predictive model. The median risk score classified patients as high- or low-risk. K‒M survival analysis demonstrated significant differences in overall survival among risk categories. Principal component analysis (PCA) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis were used to test the model’s predictive power. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses revealed risk score-related independent prognostic factors. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to construct a nomogram for marker-based prognosis. The risk category affected the tumour mutation rate. High-risk glioma patients benefit from immunotherapy. Glioma drug sensitivity was also substantially linked with the risk score. The expression of 17 cuproptosis-related long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) may assist in the stratification of glioma patient prognosis, molecular characteristics, cell cycle gene regulation pathways, the TME, and clinicopathological aspects. Our clinical sample and database analysis revealed that cuproptosis influences glioma prognosis and may guide therapy.

Accurately predicting the distance an object will travel to its destination is very important in various sports. Acceleration sensors as a means of real-time monitoring are increasingly gaining increasing attention in sports. Due to the low energy output and power density of Triboelectric Nanogenerators (TENGs), recent efforts have focused on developing various acceleration sensors. However, these sensors suffer from significant drawbacks of large size, complexity, high power input requirements, and high cost. Here, we described a portable and cost-effective real-time refreshable strategy design comprising a series of individually addressable and controllable units based on TENGs embedded in a flexible substrate. This results in a highly sensitive, low-cost, and self-powered acceleration sensor. Putting, which accounts for nearly half of the strokes played, is obviously an important component of the golf game. The developed acceleration sensor has an accuracy controlled within 5 %. The initial velocity and acceleration of the forward movement of a rolling golf ball after it is hit by a putter can be displayed, and the stopping distance quickly calculated and predicted in about 7 seconds. This research demonstrates the application of the portable TENG-based acceleration sensor, while paving the way for designing portable, cost-effective, scalable, and harmless ubiquitous self-powered acceleration sensors.

The rapid expansion of China's A-share market, coupled with the burgeoning volume of financial research reports, presents a unique challenge to traditional stock price prediction methodologies. This study introduces FAST-SCAN, a novel framework designed to leverage natural language processing (NLP) and time series analysis for the efficient and accurate prediction of stock market trends. By integrating advanced sentiment analysis, primarily through the utilization of the RoBERTa model, with dynamic time series forecasting, FAST-SCAN aims to distill actionable insights from the vast corpus of financial research reports. This approach not only enhances the speed and efficiency of financial analysis but also addresses the time-sensitive nature of market-influencing factors, thereby providing a competitive edge in stock price prediction. The framework demonstrates a notable improvement in predictive performance, achieving a 20% annualized return and a 7.19% RankIC, marking a significant advancement over conventional statistical analysis methods. Through its innovative combination of NLP and predictive analytics, FAST-SCAN paves the way for a more informed and strategic approach to investment in the A-share market, emphasizing the importance of timely, data-driven decision-making in the financial industry.

Respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) is a major respiratory morbidity associated with prematurity. In this case-control study, we prospectively evaluated whether targeted metabolomic analysis (gas chromatography–mass spectrometry) of the gastric fluid obtained from very preterm neonates (< 32 weeks’ gestation) during the first hour after birth could predict the need for exogenous surfactant for the treatment of RDS. 43 infants with RDS necessitating surfactant (cases) were compared with 30 infants with mild or no RDS (controls) who were not treated with surfactant. Perinatal and neonatal characteristics were recorded. Univariate analysis showed significant differences between the two groups in gastric fluid metabolites (L-glycine and acetyl-L-serine) and clinical parameters (gestational age, 1- and 5-minute Apgar scores, and intubation in the delivery room). Moreover, multivariate analysis revealed intubation in the delivery room as the most potent clinical predictor of surfactant administration [AUC of 0.69 (95% CI 0.57-0.81)]. The combination of metabolomic and clinical data allowed for the construction of a model with good accuracy [AUC 0.76 (95% CI 0.64-0.86)] in predicting surfactant replacement therapy. Further research is required to explore the role of gastric fluid metabolomics in the prediction of RDS and other neonatal outcomes.

A rapid and efficient technique using an electronic nose based on a mass detector combined with headspace sampling (HS-SPME-MS e-nose) and chemometric tools was applied to classify beer samples between fresh and aged and between samples contained in aluminium cans or glass bottles, and to predict the shelf life of beer. The mass spectra obtained from the HS-SPME-MS e-nose contain information on the volatile compounds, recorded as the abundance of each ion at different mass-to-charge (m/z) ratios. The analysis was performed on 53 samples aged naturally for eleven months in the absence of light and with a controlled temperature of around 14° C +/- 0.5° C. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was performed on the data, showing a grouping of samples between fresh and aged. Partial Least Square Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA) allowed discriminating fresh from aged beers but was not able to discriminate samples packaged in aluminium cans or in glass bottles. Finally, Partial Least Square Regression (PLSR) was applied to build a prediction model and showed to be effective to predict beer shelf life.

The precipitation, flocculation, and deposition of asphaltene cause severe formation damage within a reservoir and shorten a well’s productive life. Pressure depletion is one factor that contributes to asphaltene precipitation during production; therefore, the first step in managing asphaltene is to determine the onset pressure of the precipitation. While there are numerous equation of state models that can be used to predict the onset pressure, these models are complex and heavily reliant on tuning parameters. Using multivariate linear regression, this work attempts to develop a simple and accurate thermodynamic model for predicting the upper precipitation onset pressure under pressure depletion above the bubble point pressure (Pb) at various temperatures. A total of 94 experimental data points from 37 published crude oil data sets were compiled from the literature. To develop the model, 59 experimental data points were used as training data and 35 experimental data points as testing data. According to the results of the multicollinearity test, the bubble point pressure, temperature, resins, and saturate-to-aromatic ratio were chosen as predictors. The upper onset pressure data with comparable trends were clustered, and unsupervised recognition of three distinct cluster groups was performed. For each cluster identified, a multivariate linear regression model was developed. The model was chosen based on Mallow’s coefficient of determination (Cp), adjusted R² (statistical measure of fit), and S (standard error of the regression slope). The developed model was tested using a data set, and the results showed an adjusted R² of 96.25%, with a mean absolute error of 4.1%. The model was randomly applied to 15 data points to compare it to perturbed-chain statistical associated fluid theory (PC SAFT) and the Peng-Robinson equation of state models and to the multivariate regression models of Fahim (2007) and Ameli et al. (2016). The results showed that the mean absolute error for predicting the asphaltene precipitation onset pressure was 2.82% using Peng-Robinson, 2.36% using the PC SAFT equation of state, 23.96% using the Fahim model, 24.80% using the model reported by Ameli et al., and 2.39% using the newly developed multivariate regression model. The developed multivariate model appears to be as accurate as the PC SAFT equation of state modeling with tuning parameters. The primary advantage of multivariate regression is that, unlike the PC SAFT equation of state model, it does not require saturates, aromatics, resins, and asphaltenes (SARA)-based characterization methodologies or rigorous parameter tuning. It is simple to use, quick, and it produces results in a short period of time.

Interferon-beta is one of the most widely prescribed disease-modifying therapies for multiple sclerosis patients. However, this treatment is only partially effective, and a significant proportion of patients do not respond to this drug. This paper proposes an alternative fuzzy logic system based on the opinion of a neurology expert to classify relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients: high, medium, and low responder to interferon-beta. Also, a pipeline prediction model trained with biomarkers associated to interferon-beta response is proposed for predicting whether patients are potential candidates to be treated with this drug, in order to avoid ineffective therapies. The classification results shows that the fuzzy system presents a 100% efficiency compared with an unsupervised hierarchical clustering method (52%). So, the performance of the prediction model is evaluated, and a 0.8 testing accuracy is achieved. Hence, a pipeline model including data standardization, data compression, and a learning algorithm, can be a useful tool for getting reliable predictions about the response to interferon-beta.

Buildings are responsible for approximately 40% of the world’s energy consumption and 36% of the total carbon dioxide emissions. Building occupancy is essential, enabling Occupant-Centric Control for zero emissions and decarbonization. Although existing machine learning and deep learning methods for building occupancy prediction have achieved remarked progress, their analyses remain limited when applied to complex real-world scenarios. Besides, there is a high expectation for Transformer algorithms to predict building occupancy accurately. Therefore, this paper presents an Occupancy Prediction Transformer network (OPTnet). We fuse and feed multi-sensor data (building occupancy, indoor environmental conditions, HVAC operations) into a Transformer model to forecast the future occupancy presence in multiple zones. We perform experimental analysis and compare it to different occupancy prediction methods (e.g., Decision Tree, Long Short-Term Memory networks, Multi-layer perceptron) and diverse time horizons (1,2,3,5,10,20,30mins). The performance metrics (e.g., Accuracy and Mean Squared Error) are employed to evaluate the effectiveness of prediction algorithms. Our OPTnet method achieves superior performance on our experimental two-week data compared to existing methods. The improved performance signifies its potential to enhance HVAC control systems and energy optimization strategies. We will make the code publicly available at https://github.com/kailaisun/occupancy-prediction-binary to promote transparency and reproducibility.

GNSS time series prediction plays a significant role in monitoring crustal plate motion, landslide detection, and maintenance of the global coordinate framework. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), a deep learning model has been widely applied in the field of high-precision time series prediction especially when combined with Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) to form the VMD-LSTM hybrid model. To further improve the prediction accuracy of the VMD-LSTM model, this paper proposes a dual variational modal decomposition long short-term memory (DVMD-LSTM) model to effectively handle the noise in GNSS time series prediction. This model extracts fluctuation features from the residual terms obtained after VMD decomposition to reduce the prediction errors associated with residual terms in the VMD-LSTM model. Daily E, N, and U coordinate data recorded at multiple GNSS stations between 2000 and 2022 are used to validate the performance of the proposed DVMD-LSTM model. The experimental results demonstrate that compared to the VMD-LSTM model, the DVMD-LSTM model achieves significant improvements in prediction performance across all measurement stations. The average RMSE is reduced by 9.86%, and the average MAE is reduced by 9.44%. Furthermore, the average accuracy of the optimal noise model for the predicted results is improved by 36.50%, and the average speed accuracy of the predicted results is enhanced by 33.02%. These findings collectively attest to the superior predictive capabilities of the DVMD-LSTM model, thereby enhancing the reliability of the predicted results.

The ability to handle spatiotemporal information makes contribution for improving the prediction performance of machine RUL. However, most existing models for spatiotemporal information processing are not only complex in structure but also lack adaptive feature extraction capabilities. Therefore, a lightweight operator with adaptive spatiotemporal information extraction ability named Involution GRU (Inv-GRU) is proposed for aero-engine RUL prediction. Involution, the adaptive feature extraction operator, is replaced by the information connection in the gated recurrent unit for obtaining the adaptively spatiotemporal information extraction ability and reducing the parameters. Thus, Inv-GRU can well extract the degradation information the of aero-engine. Then for RUL prediction task, the Inv-GRU based deep learning (DL) framework is firstly constructed, where features extracted by Inv-GRU and several human-made features are separately processed to generate the health indicators (HIs) from multi-raw data of aero-engines. Finally, fully connection layers are adopted are adopted to reduce dimension and regress RUL based on the generated HIs. By applying the Inv-GRU based DL framework to the Commercial Modular Aero Propulsion System Simulation (C-MAPSS) datasets, successful predictions of aero-engines RUL have been achieved. Comparative analysis reveals that the proposed model exhibits superior overall prediction performance compared to recent public methods.

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are small non-coding RNAs that play a central role in the post-transcriptional regulation of biological processes. miRNAs regulate transcripts by direct binding involving the Argonaute protein family. The exact rules of binding are not known, and several in silico miRNA target prediction methods have been developed to date. Deep Learning has recently revolutionized miRNA target prediction. However, the higher predictive power comes with decreased ability to interpret increasingly complex models. Here, we present a novel interpretation technique, called attribution sequence alignment, for miRNA target site prediction models that can interpret such Deep Learning models on a two-dimensional representation of miRNA and putative target sequence. Our method produces a human readable visual representation of miRNA:target interactions and can be used as a proxy for further interpretation of biological concepts learned by the neural network. We demonstrate applications of this method in clustering of experimental data into binding classes, as well as using the method to narrow down predicted miRNA binding sites on long transcript sequences. Importantly, the presented method works with any neural network model trained on a two-dimensional representation of interactions and can be easily extended to further domains such as protein-protein interactions.

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has created immense threats to public health on various levels around the globe. The unpredictable outbreak of this disease and the pandemic situation are causing severe depression, anxiety and other mental as physical health related problems among the human beings. To combat against this disease, vaccination is essential as it will boost the immune system of human beings while being in the contact with the infected people. The vaccination process is thus necessary to confront the outbreak of COVID-19. This deadly disease has put social, economic condition of the entire world into an enormous challenge. The worldwide vaccination progress should be tracked to identify how fast the entire economic as well as social life will be stabilized. The monitor ofthe vaccination progress, a machine learning based Regressor model is approached in this study. This tracking process has been applied on the data starting from 14^th December, 2020 to 24^th April, 2021. A couple of ensemble based machine learning Regressor models such as Random Forest, Extra Trees, Gradient Boosting, AdaBoost and Extreme Gradient Boosting are implemented and their predictive performance are compared. The comparative study reveals that the AdaBoostRegressor outperforms with minimized mean absolute error (MAE) of 9.968 and root mean squared error (RMSE) of 11.133.

Increased smart devices in various industries is creating numerous sensors in each of the equipment prompting the need for methods and models for sensor data. Current research proposes a systematic approach to analyze the data generated from sensors attached to industrial equipment. The methodology involves data cleaning, preprocessing, basics statistics, outlier, and anomaly detection. Present study presents the prediction of RUL by using various Machine Learning models like Regression, Polynomial Regression, Random Forest, Decision Tree, XG Boost. Hyper Parameter Optimization is performed to find the optimal parameters for each variable. In each of the model for RUL prediction RMSE, MAE are compared. Outcome of the RUL prediction should be useful for decision maker to drive the business decision; hence Binary classification is performed, and business case analysis is performed. Business case analysis includes the cost of maintenance and cost of non-maintaining a particular asset. Current research is aimed at integrating the machine intelligence and business intelligence so that the industrial operations optimized both in resource and profit.

Myocarditis is the form of an inflammation of the middle layer of the heart wall which is caused by a viral infection and can affect the heart muscle and its electrical system. It has remained as one of the most challenging diagnoses in cardiology. Myocardial is the prime cause of unexpected death in approximately 20% of adults less than 40 years of age. Cardiac MRI (CMR) has been considered as a noninvasive and golden standard diagnostic tool for suspected myocarditis and plays an indispensable role in diagnosing various cardiac diseases. However, the performance of CMR is heavily dependent on the clinical presentation and non-specific features such as chest pain, arrhythmia, and heart failure. Besides, other imaging factors like artifacts, technical errors, pulse sequence, acquisition parameters, contrast agent dose, and more importantly qualitatively visual interpretation can affect the result of the diagnosis. This paper introduces a new deep learning-based model called Convolutional Neural Network-Clustering (CNN-KCL) to diagnose the Myocarditis. The hybrid CNN-KCL method performs the early and accurate diagnosis of Myocarditis. To the best-of-our-knowledge, a Convolutional neural network has never been used before for the diagnosis of Myocarditis. In this study, we used 47 subjects to diagnose myocarditis patients from Tehran's Omid Hospital. The total number of data examined is 10425. Our results demonstrate that CNN-KCL achieves 92.3% in terms of diagnosis myocarditis prediction accuracy which is significantly better than those reported in previous studies.

Recently, the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is threatening human health globally. There is a dire need to find potential therapeutic agents. Angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), as an entry receptor of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is considered as potential therapeutic target in COVID-19 pandemic. Here, our bioinformatics analysis revealed that the biological function of ACE2 was correlated with regulation of blood pressure and mediation of SARS-CoV-2 entry into host cells. Ten ACE2 cooperative proteins were identified by using STRING with a high score. ACE2 expressed highly in the small intestine, testis, and kidney. The level of ACE2 expression in tumor tissues varies in different types of cancers compared with that in normal tissues. It was worth noting that the expression level of ACE2 in the tumor has no effect on patient survival. MiRNA hsa-miR-942-5p, and three transcription factors (TFs) including Signal transducer and activator of transcription 4 (STAT4), Estrogen related receptor α (ESRRA), and Signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3) were selected as novel ACE2 regulators. Moreover, nine potential therapeutic drugs were predicted by two online databases. Thus, our research may expand the overall view of ACE2 in COVID-19 treatment.

Despite the number of studies on bankruptcy prediction using financial ratios, very little is known about how external audit information can contribute to anticipating financial distress. A handful of papers show that a combination of ratios and audit data can provide significant predictive purposes, but a recent paper by Muñoz-Izquierdo et al. (2018) provided an 80% predictive accuracy solely by using the disclosures of audit reports. We complement this study. Applying an artificial intelligence method (the PART algorithm), we examine the predictive ability of more easily extracted information from the report and suggest a practical implication for each user. Simply by (1) finding the audit opinion, (2) identifying if a matter section exist, (3) and the number of comments disclosed, then any user may predict a bankruptcy situation with the same accuracy as if they had scrutinised the whole report. In addition, we also provide an extended literature review about previous studies on the interaction between bankruptcy prediction and the external audit information.

Nipah virus (NiV) is responsible to cause various outbreaks in Asian countries, with latest from Kerala state of India. Till date there is no drug available despite its urgent requirement. In the current study, we have provided a computational one-stop solution for NiV inhibitors. We have developed “anti-Nipah” web resource, which comprised of a data repository, prediction method, and data visualization modules. The database comprised of 313 (181 unique) inhibitors from different strains and outbreaks of NiV extracted from research articles and patents. However, the quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) based predictors were accomplished using classification approach employing 10-fold cross validation through support vector machine with 120 (68p + 52n) inhibitors. The overall predictor showed the accuracy and Matthew’s correlation coefficient of 88.89% and 0.77 on training/testing dataset respectively. The independent validation dataset also performed equally well. The data visualization modules from chemical clustering and principal component analyses displayed the diversity in the NiV inhibitors. Therefore, our web platform would be of immense help to the researchers working in developing effective inhibitors against NiV. The user-friendly webserver is freely available on URL: http://bioinfo.imtech.res.in/manojk/antinipah/

The theoretical limit of link prediction is a fundamental problem in this field. Taking the network structure as object to research this problem is the mainstream method. This paper proposes a new viewpoint that link prediction methods can be divided into single or combination methods, based on the way they derive the similarity matrix, and investigates whether there a theoretical limit exists for combination methods. We propose and prove necessary and sufficient conditions for the combination method to reach the theoretical limit. The limit theorem reveals the essence of combination method that is to estimate probability density functions of existing links and nonexistent links. Based on limit theorem, a new combination method, theoretical limit fusion (TLF) method, is proposed. Simulations and experiments on real networks demonstrated that TLF method can achieve higher prediction accuracy.

Aquaculture is growing ever more important due to the decrease in natural marine resources and increase inworldwide demand. To avoid losses due to aging and abnormalweather, it is important to predict seawater temperature in order to maintain a more stable supply, particularly for high value added products, such as pearls and scallops. The increase in species extinction is a prominent societal issue. Furthermore, in order to maintain a stable quality of farmed fishery, water temperature should be measured daily and farming methods altered according to seasonal stresses. In this paper, we propose an algorithm to estimate seawater temperature in marine aquaculture by combining seawater temperature data and actual weather data.

Nickel base superalloy GH4169 is a material with strong mechanical properties and is difficult to process. In order to reduce tool wear during material processing and improve workpiece surface processing quality, based on the finite element simulation software DEFORM, the influence of n, ap, and fz parameters on tool wear during carbide tool milling GH4169 was studied, and a simulation orthogonal experimental model was established, The prediction model of tool wear is obtained; The ultrasonic vibration milling is compared with ordinary milling, and the improvement degree of different coating materials on carbide tool wear is explored. The results show that the ultrasonic vibration signal is helpful to reduce tool wear, improve the surface quality of the workpiece, and improve the stability of the milling process. TIALN/TIN (WC) composite coated tools have good cutting performance, help to reduce tool temperature, reduce tool wear, and improve tool life.

In order to realize the performance degradation trend prediction accurately, a prediction method based on multi-domain features and temporal convolutional network (TCN) is proposed. Firstly, construct a high-dimensional feature set in the multi-domain of vibration signals, and use comprehensive evaluation indicators to preliminarily screen performance degradation indexes with good sensitivity and strong trend. Secondly, the kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) method is adopted to eliminate redundant information between multi-domain features, and construct a health index (HI) based on convolutional auto-encoder (CAE) network. Thirdly, a TCN-based performance degradation trend prediction model is constructed, and direct multi-step prediction is used to predict the performance degradation trend of the monitored object. On this basis, the validity of the proposed method is verified using the bearing public data, and it is successfully applied to performance degradation trend prediction of rolling contact fatigue specimen. The results show that the feature set can be reduced from 14 dimensions to 4 dimensions by using KPCA, while 98.33% of the information of the original feature set is retained. Furthermore, the method of constructing HI based on CAE network is effective. The change process of the HI constructed truly reflects the performance degradation process of the rolling contact fatigue specimen. Compared with the two commonly used HI construction methods, auto-encoding (AE) network and gaussian mixture model (GMM), this method has obvious advantages. At the same time, the prediction model based on TCN can accurately predict the performance degradation of the rolling contact fatigue specimen with the root mean square error 0.0146 and the mean absolute error 0.0105, which has better performance and higher prediction accuracy than the prediction model based on the long short-term memory (LSTM) network and the gated recurrent unit (GRU). This method has general significance and may be extended to the performance degradation prediction of other mechanical equipment/parts.

In recent years, how to combine intelligent prospecting algorithms such as random forest with a large number of geological and mineral data for quantitative prediction of exploration geochemistry has become an important topic of concern to quantitatively improve the accuracy of target delineation. The ore-forming geological conditions in the central Kunlun area of Xinjiang are great and have good prospecting prospects. However, due to the exhaustion of shallow deposits and the lag of geological prospecting work in the past ten years, there has been no expected breakthrough in the search for large and super-large metal deposits for many years. There has been a serious shortage of reserve resources. The use of new theories, new methods and new technologies for mineral resources investigation and evaluation has become an urgent need in the current prospecting work. In view of this, based on the existing spatial database of geological and mineral resources in the central Kunlun of Xinjiang, combined with the geological characteristics, genesis and metallogenic regularity of the area, this paper carried out a series of studies on gold polymetallic minerals with the help of geographic information system and data science programming software platform. The researchers integrated geological and regional geochemical data, and constructed a random forest metallogenic discriminant model based on two different sampling methods (integrated random undersampling and selection of training samples) to predict the mineralization of gold polymetallic minerals in the central Kunlun area of Xinjiang and delineate the metallogenic target area. The quantitative prediction of gold polymetallic mineral resources in the central Kunlun area of Xinjiang by two random forest models is compared and discussed: the known ore spots, fault structures and geochemical information are extracted, and the known gold polymetallic ore spots and geochemical data are used to form a training set and a prediction set to construct a machine learning random forest model. The results of prediction evaluation and metallogenic prospect division show that for different sampling methods, the performance evaluation parameters of the training process show that the prediction accuracy of the selected training samples is higher, and the selected training samples are more reliable because they can fully learn the complex information of the original data. In the metallogenic prospect prediction and metallogenic potential division, the random forest model of selecting training samples has more reference value and further exploration research significance in the production problem considering the actual exploration cost because of its small area of high potential prediction area and high proportion of ore bearing per unit area. At the same time, this study innovatively improves the prediction accuracy, reduces the exploration risk, and expands the prospecting idea of machine learning algorithm in mathematical geology in the central Kunlun area of Xinjiang. The delineated metallogenic potential area has positive guiding significance for the actual gold polymetallic prospecting work in this area.

Urban growth in various cities across the world, especially in developing countries, leads to land use change. Thus, predicting future urban growth in the most rapidly growing region of Nigeria becomes a significant endeavor. This study analyzes land use and land cover (LULC) change and predicts the future urban growth of the Lagos metropolitan region, using Cellular Automata (CA) model. To achieve this, the GlobeLand30 datasets from years 2000 and 2010 were used to obtain LULC maps, which were utilized for modeling and prediction. Change analysis and prediction for LULC scenario for 2030 were performed using LCM and CA_Markov chain modeling. The results show a substantial growth of artificial surfaces, which will cause further reductions in cultivated land, grassland, shrubland, wetland, and waterbodies. There was no appreciable impact of change for bare land, as its initial extent of cover later disappeared completely. Additionally, artificial surfaces/urban growth in Lagos expanded to the neighboring towns and localities in Ogun State during the study period, and it is expected that such growth will be higher in 2030. Lastly, the study findings will be beneficial to urban planners and land use managers in making key decisions regarding urban growth and improved land use management in Nigeria.

Rapid and accurate prediction of residual stress in metal additive manufacturing processes is of great importance to guarantee the quality of the fabricated part to be used in a mission-critical application in the aerospace and automotive industries. Experimentation and numerical modeling are valuable tools for measuring and predicting the residual stress; however, to-date conducting experimentation and numerical modeling is expensive and time-consuming. Thus, herein, a physics-based thermomechanical analytical model is proposed to predict the residual stress of the additively manufactured part rapidly and accurately. A moving point heat source approach is used to predict the temperature field by considering the effects of scan strategies, heat loss, and energy needed for solid-state phase transformation. Due to the high temperature gradient in this process, part experiences a high amount of thermal stress following solidification which may exceed the yield strength of the material. The thermal stress is obtained using Green’s function of stresses due to the point body load. The Johnson-Cook flow stress model is used to predict the yield surface of the part under repeated heating and cooling. As a result of the cyclic heating and cooling and the fact that the material is yielded, the residual stress build-up is predicted based on incremental plasticity and kinematic hardening behavior of the metal according to the property of volume invariance in plastic deformation in coupling with the equilibrium and compatibility conditions. The computational methodology is realized with the laser powder fusion of maraging steel 350 as a material of example. The validation of the predictive models has been presented in terms of the comparison of predicted and measured scan-direction and build-direction residual stress distributions along depth of build under various process parameter combinations. Moreover, for the first time, the Jonson-Cook parameters of maraging steel 350 are predicted using analytical modeling of machining forces and non-linear optimization techniques.

The task of determining the distance from one object to another is one of the important tasks solved in robotics systems. Conventional algorithms rely on an iterative process of predicting distance estimates, which results in an increased computational burden. Algorithms used in robotic systems should require minimal time costs, as well as be resistant to the presence of noise. To solve these problems, the paper proposes an algorithm for Kalman combination filtering with a Goldschmidt divisor and a median filter. Software simulation showed an increase in the accuracy of predicting the estimate of the developed algorithm in comparison with the traditional filtering algorithm, as well as an increase in the speed of the algorithm. The results obtained can be effectively applied in various computer vision systems.

This paper presents a novel approach to sentiment analysis specifically customized for predicting stock market movements, bypassing the need for external dictionaries which are often unavailable for many languages. Our methodology directly analyzes textual data, with a particular focus on context-specific sentiment words within neural network models. This specificity ensures our sentiment analysis is both relevant and accurate in identifying trends in the stock market. We employ sophisticated mathematical modeling techniques to enhance both the precision and interpretability of our models. Through meticulous data handling and advanced machine learning methods, we leverage large datasets from Twitter and financial markets to examine the impact of social media sentiment on financial trends. We achieved an accuracy exceeding 75%, highlighting the effectiveness of our modeling approach, which we further refined into a convolutional neural network model. This achievement contributes valuable insights into sentiment analysis within the financial domain, thereby improving the overall clarity of forecasting in this field.

Multiaxial fatigue experiments under asynchronous loadings with four different loading frequency ratios were carried out on 30CrMnSiA steel. The experimental results show that the fatigue life decreases when the axial or torsion frequency increases from 1 to 2, while there is no significant change when the axial or torsion frequency increases from 2 to 4. The surface crack paths are observed and show that cracks initiate on the maximum shear stress amplitude planes, propagate approximately tens of microns, and then turn to propagate along the maximum normal stress planes. The number of secondary cracks increases when the axial or torsion frequency increases. Subsequently, the Bannantine-Socie and Wang-Brown cycle counting methods along with various multiaxial fatigue criteria and Palmgren-Miner’s cumulative damage rule were used for fatigue life prediction. The experimental results are consistent with the fatigue life predicted by the Bannantine-Socie method with the section critical plane criterion for 30CrMnSiA steel under asynchronous loading paths.

Infrared dim and small target detection is a key technology of various detection tasks. However, due to the lack of shape, texture, and other information, it is a challenging task to detect dim and small targets. Recently, since many traditional algorithms ingore global information of infrared images, they generate some false alarms in complicated environments. To address this problem, in this paper, a coarse-to-fine deep learning-based method is proposed to detect dim and small targets. Firstly, a coarse-to-fine detection framework integrating deep learning and background prediction is applied for detecting targets. The framework contains of coarse detection module and fine detection module. In coarse detection stage, Region Proposal Network (RPN) is employed to generate masks in target candidate regions. Then, for further optimize the result, inpainting is utilized to predict the background by the global semnantic of images. In this paper, inpainting algorithm with a mask aware dynamic filtering module is incorporated into the fine detection stage to estimate background in candidate target areas. Finally, compared with existing algorithms, the experimental results indicate that the proposed framework have effective detection capability and robustness for complex surroundings.

This paper explores the application of various machine learning techniques for predicting customer churn in the telecommunications sector. We utilized a publicly accessible dataset and implemented several models, including Artificial Neural Networks, Decision Trees, Support Vector Machines, Random Forests, Logistic Regression, and gradient boosting techniques (XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost). To mitigate the challenges posed by imbalanced datasets, we adopted different data sampling strategies, namely SMOTE, SMOTE combined with Tomek Links, and SMOTE combined with Edited Nearest Neighbors. Moreover, hyperparameter tuning was employed to enhance model performance. Our evaluation employed standard metrics such as Precision, Recall, F1-Score, and the Receiver Operating Characteristic Area Under Curve (ROC AUC). Regarding the F1-Score metric, CatBoost demonstrates superior performance compared to other machine learning models, achieving an outstanding 93% following the application of Optuna hyperparameter optimization. In the context of the ROC AUC metric, both XGBoost and CatBoost exhibit exceptional performance, recording remarkable scores of 91%. This achievement for XGBoost is attained after implementing a combination of SMOTE with Tomek Links, while CatBoost reaches this level of performance after the application of Optuna hyperparameter optimization.

Sparse training (ST) aims to ameliorate deep learning by replacing fully connected artificial neural networks (ANNs) with sparse or ultra-sparse ones, such as brain networks are, therefore it might benefit to borrow brain-inspired learning paradigms from complex network intelligence theory. Here, we launch the ultrasparse advantage challenge, whose goal is to offer evidence on the extent to which ultra-sparse (around 1% connection retained) topologies can achieve any leaning advantage on fully connected. Epitopological learning is a field of network science and complex network intelligence that studies how to implement learning on complex networks by changing the shape of their connectivity structure (epitopological plasticity). One way to implement Epitopological (epi- means new) Learning is via link prediction: predicting the likelihood of nonobserved links to appear in the network. Cannistraci-Hebb learning theory inspired the CH3-L3 network automata rule for link prediction which is effective for general-purpose link prediction. Here, starting from CH3-L3 we propose Epitopological Sparse Meta-deep Learning (ESML) to apply Epitopological Learning to sparse training. In empirical experiments, we find that ESML learns ANNs with ultra-sparse hyperbolic (epi-)topology in which emerges a community layer organization that is meta-deep (meaning that each layer also has an internal depth due to powerlaw node hierarchy). Furthermore, we discover that ESML can in many cases automatically sparse the neurons during training (arriving even to 30% neurons left in hidden layers), this process of node dynamic removal is called percolation. Starting from this network science evidence, we design Cannistraci-Hebb training (CHT), a 4-step training methodology that put ESML at its heart. We conduct experiments on 6 datasets and 3 network structures (MLPs, VGG16, ResNet50) comparing CHT to dynamic sparse training SOTA algorithms and fully connected network. The results indicate that, with a mere 1% of links retained during training, CHT surpasses fully connected networks on VGG16 and ResNet50. This key finding is an evidence for ultra-sparse advantage and signs a milestone in deep learning. CHT acts akin to a gradient-free oracle which adopts CH3-L3 based epitopological learning to guide the placement of new links in the ultra-sparse network topology to facilitate sparse-weight gradient learning, and this in turn reduces the convergence time of ultra-sparse training. Finally, CHT offers first examples of parsimony dynamic sparse training because, in many datasets, it canretain network performance by percolating and significantly reducing the node network size.

Over the past two decades, persistent occurrences of harmful algal blooms (HAB; Karenia brevis) have been reported in Charlotte County, southwestern Florida. We developed data-driven models that rely on spatiotemporal remote sensing and field data to identify factors controlling HAB propagation, provide a same-day distribution (nowcasting), and forecast their occurrences up to three days in advance. We constructed multivariate regression models using historical HAB occurrences (213 events reported from January 2010 to October 2017) compiled by the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission and validated the models against a subset (20%) of the reported historical events. The models were designed to specifically capture the onset of the HABs instead of those that developed days earlier and continued thereafter. A prototype of an early warning system was developed through a threefold exercise. The first step involved the automatic downloading and processing of daily Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua products using SeaDAS ocean color processing software to extract temporal and spatial variations of remote sensing-based variables over the study area. The second step involved the development of a multivariate regression model for same-day mapping of HABs and similar subsequent models for forecasting HAB occurrences one, two, and three days in advance. Eleven remote sensing variables and two non-remote sensing variables were used as inputs for the generated models. In the third and final step, model outputs (same-day and forecasted distribution of HABs) were posted automatically on a web-based GIS (http://www.esrs.wmich.edu/webmap/bloom/). Our findings include the following: (1) the variables most indicative of the timing of bloom propagation are bathymetry, euphotic depth, wind direction, SST, chlorophyll-a [OC3M] and distance from the river mouth, and (2) the model predictions were 90% successful for same-day mapping and 65%, 72% and 71% for the one-, two- and three-day advance predictions, respectively. The adopted methodologies are reliable, dependent on readily available remote sensing data sets, and cost-effective and thus could potentially be used to map and forecast algal bloom occurrences in data-scarce regions.

Natural products comprise a rich reservoir for innovative drug leads and are a constant source of bioactive compounds. To find pharmacological targets for new or already known natural products using modern computer-aided methods is a current endeavor in drug discovery. Nature’s treasures, however, could be used more effectively. Yet, reliable pipelines for large scale target prediction of natural products are still rare. We have developed an in silico workflow consisting of four independent, stand-alone target prediction tools and evaluated its performance on dihydrochalcones (DHCs) – a well-known class of natural products. Thereby, we revealed four previously unreported protein targets for DHCs, namely 5-lipoxygenase, cyclooxygenase-1, 17β- hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase 3, and aldo-keto reductase 1C3. Moreover, we provide a thorough strategy on how to perform computational target prediction and guidance on using the respective tools.

The study of the area model of Pinus tabulaeformis forest provides an important reference for improving the management of Pinus tabulaeformis and revealing the growth law of Pinus tabulaeformis. According to the classification method proposed by Munro, stand growth and harvest prediction models are divided into three categories: full stand model, single wood model and diameter distribution model. Based on the fixed sample data of Shangluo Pinus tabulaeformis, the spatial instead of time method is used to process the data, and the weight coefficient of each model in the combined prediction model is calculated by using the optimal weighting method. The single wood model, the whole forest model and the diameter distribution model are combined by the combined prediction method to integrate the fault area prediction of Pinus tabulaeformis forest. The results show that the combined prediction method is more accurate than the single model (single wood model, whole forest model and diameter distribution model). At the same time, the method can improve the compatibility of the forest break area prediction model, ensure the consistency of the forest break area prediction, and provide a new direction for the research of forest resource monitoring and investigation.

Traffic accidents are among the most common causes of death worldwide. According to statistics from the World Health Organization (WHO), 50 million people are involved in traffic accidents every year. Canada, particularly Montreal, is not immune to this problem. Data from the Société de l’Assurance Automobile du Québec (SAAQ) shows that there were 392 deaths on Québec roads in 2022, 38 of them related to the city of Montreal. This value represents an increase of 29.3% for the city of Montreal compared to the average for the years 2017 to 2021. In this context, it is important to take concrete measures to improve traffic safety in the city of Montreal. In this article, we present a web-based solution based on machine learning that predicts the severity of traffic accidents in the city of Montreal. This solution uses dataset of traffic accidents that occurred in Montreal between 2012 and 2021. Classification algorithms such as eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Categorical Boosting (CatBoost), Random Forest (RF) and Gradient Boosting (GB) were used to develop the prediction model. When evaluating the prediction model, performance metrics such as precision, recall, F1 score, and accuracy are taken into account. The performance analysis shows an excellent accuracy of 96% for the prediction model based on the XGBoost classifier. The other models (CatBoost, RF, GB) achieved 95%, 93% and 89% accuracy, respectively. The prediction model based on the XGBoost classifier was deployed using a client-server web application managed by Swagger-UI and the Flask Python framework.