preprints.org > environmental and earth sciences > atmospheric science and meteorology > doi: 10.20944/preprints202404.1980.v1

Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 29 April 2024 / Approved: 30 April 2024 / Online: 30 April 2024 (11:46:39 CEST)

While the simple model of the total atmospheric carbon sink effect as a linear function of concentration has provided excellent prediction results, several problems remained to be investigated and solved. The most obvious open issue is the correct treatment of land use change emssions. It turns out that the model improves by mostly neglecting them after 1959. This effectively implies that land use change emissions have been constant and small since then. The key investigation starts with the observation, that the total carbon sink has a short term component which be explained by temperature changes commonly known as El Nin˜o. The apparent paradox is analysed and explained, why contrary to the short term changes no temperature caused trend can be detected in the model, despite the fact that several contributing processes exhibit temperature dependency. The result of this analysis leads to the model extension, where the total effect of sinks and natural emissions are a linear function of concentration and temperature. This model not only explains current measurements but also paleo climate from ice-core time series.

Carbon sinks; Linear sink model; CO2 concentration prediction; Equilibrium concentration; Temperature dependence; VOSTOK Ice core data

Environmental and Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science and Meteorology

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