Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

The Economic Impact from the Decreasing Population Mobility of China’s Mainland during the Epidemic

Version 1 : Received: 19 December 2020 / Approved: 21 December 2020 / Online: 21 December 2020 (14:28:50 CET)

How to cite: Xiao, Y.; Peng, J.; Chen, Y.; Yuan, Z. The Economic Impact from the Decreasing Population Mobility of China’s Mainland during the Epidemic. Preprints 2020, 2020120530 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202012.0530.v1). Xiao, Y.; Peng, J.; Chen, Y.; Yuan, Z. The Economic Impact from the Decreasing Population Mobility of China’s Mainland during the Epidemic. Preprints 2020, 2020120530 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202012.0530.v1).

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 poses a devastating threat to human society in terms of health, economy and lifestyle. Establishing accurate and real-time models to predict and assess the impact of the epidemic on the economy is instructive. We have designed a new model to quantitatively assess the impact of the COVID-19 on the economy of China’s mainland. The nominal GDP in the Q1 of 2020 that we predicted for China’s mainland with the Baidu Mi-gration Data is RMB 20,785.7 billion, which is less by 3.59% than that in 2019. The estimated val-ue is confirmed roughly by the official report released in April 17, 2020 (RMB 20,650 billion, 6.8% year-on-year declined). Strict control measures during the epidemic have greatly reduced Chi-na's economic activity and had a serious impact on the country's economy. Orderly promotion of population mobility plays a decisive role in economic recovery.

Subject Areas

Economic impact; Population mobility data; Prediction; Assess; Covid-19

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