Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Short-Term Forecasts of COVID-19 Spread Across Indian States Until 29 May 2020 under the Worst-Case Scenario

Version 1 : Received: 26 April 2020 / Approved: 28 April 2020 / Online: 28 April 2020 (08:57:57 CEST)

How to cite: Azad, S.; Poonia, N. Short-Term Forecasts of COVID-19 Spread Across Indian States Until 29 May 2020 under the Worst-Case Scenario. Preprints 2020, 2020040491 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202004.0491.v1). Azad, S.; Poonia, N. Short-Term Forecasts of COVID-19 Spread Across Indian States Until 29 May 2020 under the Worst-Case Scenario. Preprints 2020, 2020040491 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202004.0491.v1).

Abstract

The very first case of corona-virus illness was recorded on 30 January 2020, in India and the number of infected cases, including the death toll, continues to rise. In this paper, we present short-term forecasts of COVID-19 for 28 Indian states and five union territories using real-time data from 30 January to 20May 2020. Applying Holt’s second-order exponential smoothing method and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, we generated 10-day ahead forecasts of the likely number of infected cases and deaths in India until 29 May2020. Our results show that the number of cumulative cases in India will rise to169109 [PI 95% (14426, 19455)], concurrently the number of deaths may increase to 4863 [PI 95% (4221, 5551)] by 29 May 2020.Further, we have marked the states (e.g. Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Tamil Nadu) where outburst is expected by considering the cases above three standard deviations. Under the worst-case scenario, Maharashtra is likely to be the most affected state with around 62628 [PI 95% (52840, 73555)] cumulative cases by 29 May 2020. However, Kerala and Karnataka are likely to remain in the lesser affected region. The presented results mark the states where lockdown by 1 June2020, can be loosened.

Subject Areas

COVID-19; India; prediction models; statistics; data; Indian states

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