Version 1
: Received: 4 September 2023 / Approved: 5 September 2023 / Online: 6 September 2023 (04:18:32 CEST)
How to cite:
Chen, Z.; Luo, Z.; Li, G.; He, R.; Wang, S.; Li, L. Distributional Response of the Rare and Critically Endangered Ilex nanchuanensis to Climate Change in East Asia. Preprints2023, 2023090336. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202309.0336.v1
Chen, Z.; Luo, Z.; Li, G.; He, R.; Wang, S.; Li, L. Distributional Response of the Rare and Critically Endangered Ilex nanchuanensis to Climate Change in East Asia. Preprints 2023, 2023090336. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202309.0336.v1
Chen, Z.; Luo, Z.; Li, G.; He, R.; Wang, S.; Li, L. Distributional Response of the Rare and Critically Endangered Ilex nanchuanensis to Climate Change in East Asia. Preprints2023, 2023090336. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202309.0336.v1
APA Style
Chen, Z., Luo, Z., Li, G., He, R., Wang, S., & Li, L. (2023). Distributional Response of the Rare and Critically Endangered Ilex nanchuanensis to Climate Change in East Asia. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202309.0336.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Chen, Z., Shuqin Wang and Liangliang Li. 2023 "Distributional Response of the Rare and Critically Endangered Ilex nanchuanensis to Climate Change in East Asia" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202309.0336.v1
Abstract
Global climate change, dominated by climate warming, is seriously affecting the balance of global ecosystems, but the risk of species extinction is particularly high in low-altitude mountain areas. To clarify the response of the endemic and critically endangered species Ilex nanchuanensis to climate change, this study used the MaxEnt model to simulate and predict the potential habitat of I. nanchuanensis during the Last Interglacial, Last Glacial Maximum, the current period, and two future periods (the 2050s and 2070s). The results showed that the hottest monthly minimum temperature is the most important climatic factor affecting the geographical distribution of I. nanchuanensis. Furthermore, I. nanchuanensis will be at risk of population shrinkage and extinction in the future, with the center of mass moving further northwest as concentrations of greenhouse gases increase, especially in the 2070s, when its geographical distribution shrinks the most under the RCP6 scenario. Global warming is causing habitat degradation for many species and will continue to migrate to higher altitudes and latitudes in the future, seriously affecting the global ecosystem balance. Therefore, to actively respond to the impacts of climate change, protected areas should be established around the geographical distribution centers of species, and core, buffer, and experimental areas should be scientifically and rationally delineated for the conservation and cultivation of germplasm resources.
Keywords
Ilex nanchuanensis; global climate change; migration prediction; potential distribution,Critically Endangered Chinese Endemic Species
Subject
Biology and Life Sciences, Forestry
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
