We review and assess the classic SIR and SEIR epidemiological models regarding possible applications to the COVID-19 pandemic. In spite of numerous more complicated models, we show how the qualitative features of the solution to the SIR and SEIR models continue to provide valuable public health insights in some scenarios. Using estimated COVID-19 data as of this date, the SEIR model shows that if it were possible to reduce R₀ from 2.5 to 1.25 through social distancing and other measures, the maximum fraction of the population that would become infected at any particular time would drop from 17% to 4%, provided that all of the model assumptions are satisfied. Finally, we compare the classic SIR model with a recent stochastic model with favorable results. Since this comparison underscores the importance of underlying connectivity assumptions, we conclude with Monte-Carlo simulations with specific connectivity that reproduce the classical SIR model with standard incidence.

In this paper, quasi-static axial compression tests are performed on the nodal Moso bamboos to study the size effect on energy absorption of the bamboos and the damage pattern of the multiple bamboo columns. Experimental results show that under the same moisture content, growth age and growing environment, the specific energy absorption (SEA) of the test samples increases with the increase of the out-diameter and thickness of the bamboo columns, indicating that size effect exists for energy absorption of the Moso Bamboos. For the multiple bamboo columns, there are mainly three failure modes for the constituent single bamboo columns: splitting above the node, splitting below the node and splitting through the node. Also, the tensile tests are conducted on three kinds of dog-bone shaped bamboo samples to investigate the macroscopic tensile fracture mode in the longitudinal direction of Moso bamboos. Results show that there is no direct relationship between the fracture pattern and moisture content of the bamboos, as well as the growth age of the bamboos. However, the tensile loading rate and the shape of the dog-bone shaped bamboo sample could affect the macroscopic fracture pattern of the bamboos in some cases.

The process of senescence (aging) is largely determined by the action of wild-type genes. For most organisms, this does not reflect any adaptive function of senescence, but rather evolutionary effects of declining selection against genes with deleterious effects later in life. To understand aging requires an account of how evolutionary mechanisms give rise to pathogenic gene action and late-life disease, that integrates evolutionary (ultimate) and mechanistic (proximate) causes into a single explanation. A well-supported evolutionary explanation by G.C. Williams argues that senescence can evolve due to pleiotropic effects of alleles with antagonistic effects on fitness and late-life health (antagonistic pleiotropy, AP). What has remained unclear is how gene action gives rise to late-life disease pathophysiology. One ultimate-proximate account is T.B.L. Kirkwood’s disposable soma theory. Based on the hypothesis that stochastic molecular damage causes senescence, this reasons that aging is coupled to reproductive fitness due to preferential investment of resources into reproduction, rather than somatic maintenance. An alternative and more recent ultimate-proximate theory argues that aging is largely caused by programmatic, developmental-type mechanisms. Here ideas about AP and programmatic aging are reviewed, particularly those of M.V. Blagosklonny (the hyperfunction theory) and J.P. de Magalhães (the developmental theory), and their capacity to make sense of diverse experimental findings is described.

We investigate entropy generation in unsteady three-dimensional axisymmetric MHD nanofluid flow over a non-linearly stretching sheet. The flow is subject to thermal radiation and a chemical reaction. The conservation equations were solved using the spectral quasi-linearization method. The novelty of the work is in the study of entropy generation in three-dimensional axisymmetric MHD nanofluid and the choice of the spectral quasilinearization method as the solution method. The effects of Brownian motion and thermophoresis are also taken into account when the nanofluid particle volume fraction on the boundary in passively controlled. The results show that as the Hartman number increases, both the Nusselt number and the Sherwood number decrease whereas the skin friction increases. It is further shown that an increase in the thermal radiation parameter corresponds to a decrease in the Nusselt number. Moreover, entropy generation increases with the physical parameters.

Splines and quasi-interpolation operators are important both in approximation theory and applications. In this paper, we construct a family of quasi-interpolation operators for the bivariate quintic spline spaces S₅³ (∆_mn⁽²⁾). Moreover, the properties of the proposed quasi-interpolation operators are studied, as well as its applications for solving two-dimensional Burgers’ equation and image reconstruction. Some numerical examples show that these methods, which are easy to implement, provide accurate results.

The total enthalpies of the 16 different spin configurations that can be realized in the unit cell of the archetype spin crossover complex [Fe(phen)₂(NCS)₂] (phen=1,2-phenanthroline) were calculated applying periodic density functional theory combined with the Hubbard model and the Grimme-D2 dispersion correction (DFT+U/D2). The obtained enthalpy differences between the individual spin configurations were used to determine spin couplings of an Ising-like model and subsequent Monte Carlo simulations for this model allowed to estimate the phenomenological interaction parameter Г of the Slichter-Drickamer model, which is commonly used to describe the cooperativity of the spin transition. The calculational procedure described here, which led to an estimate of about 3 kJ/mol⁻¹ for Г, in good agreement with experiment, may be used to predict from first principles how modifications of spin crossover complexes can change the character of the spin transition from gradual to abrupt and vice versa.

X-ray fluorescence is largely employed in the measurement of the thickness of coatings. Despite of its diffusion, the task is not straightforward because of the complex physics involved that results in high dependence on matrix effects. Thickness quantification is in practice accomplished using the Fundamental Parameters approach, adjusted with empirical measurements of standards with known composition and thickness. This approach has two major drawbacks: i) there are no standards for any possible coating and coating architecture and ii) even relying on standards, the quantification of unknown samples requires the precise knowledge of the matrix nature (e.g., in case of multilayer coatings the thickness and the composition of each underlayer). In this work, we describe a semiquantitative approach to coatings thickness measurement based on the construction of calibration curves through simulated XRF spectra built with Monte Carlo simulations. Simulations have been performed with the freeware software XMI-MSIM. We have assessed the accuracy of the methods by comparing the results with those obtained by i) XRF thickness determination with standards and ii) FIB-SEM cross-sectioning. Then we evaluated which parameters are critical in this kind of indirect thickness measurements.

The application of the sensors optical fiber in the areas of scientific instrumentation and industrial instrumentation is very attractive due to its numerous advantages. In the industry of civil engineering for example, quasi-distributed sensors made with optical fiber are used for reliable strain and temperature measurements. Here, a quasi-distributed sensor in the frequency domain is discussed. The sensor consists of a series of low-finesse Fabry-Perot interferometers where each Fabry-Perot interferometer acts as a local sensor. Fabry-Perot interferometers are formed by pairs of identical low reflective Bragg gratings imprinted in a single mode fiber. All interferometer sensors have different cavity length, provoking the frequency-domain multiplexing. The optical signal represents the superposition of all interference patterns which can be decomposed using the Fourier transform. The frequency spectrum is analyzed and sensor´s properties were defined. Following, a quasi-distributed sensor was numerically simulated. Our sensor simulation considers sensor properties, signal processing, noise system and instrumentation. The numerical results show the behavior of resolution vs. signal-to-noise ratio. From our results, the Fabry-Perot sensor has high resolution and low resolutions. Both resolutions are conceivable because the FDPA algorithm elaborates two evaluations of Bragg wavelength shift

Bayesian analysis for masked data under competing risk frameworks is studied for the purpose of assessing the impact of covariates on the hazard functions when the failure time is exactly observed for some subjects but only known to lie in an interval of time for the remaining subjects. Such data, known as partly interval-censored data, usually result from periodic inspection. Dirichlet and Gamma processes are assumed as priors for masking probabilities and baseline hazards. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique is employed for the implementation of the Bayesian approach. The effectiveness of the proposed model is tested through numerical studies, including simulated and real data sets.

We develop an interactive likelihood (ILH) for sequential Monte-Carlo (SMC) methods for image-based multiple target tracking applications. The purpose of the ILH is to improve tracking accuracy by reducing the need for data association. In addition, we integrate a recently developed deep neural network for pedestrian detection along with the ILH with a multi-Bernoulli filter. We evaluate the performance of the multi-Bernoulli filter with the ILH and the pedestrian detector in a number of publicly available datasets (2003 PETS INMOVE, AFL, and TUD-Stadtmitte) using standard, well-known multi-target tracking metrics (OSPA and CLEAR MOT). In all datasets, the ILH term increases the tracking accuracy of the multi-Bernoulli filter.

Computationally modelling a nuclear reactor startup core for a benchmark against the existing models is highly desirable for an independent assessment informing nuclear engineers and energy policymakers. This work presents a startup core model of the UK’s first Evolutionary Pressurised Water Reactor (EPR) based on Monte Carlo simulations of particle collisions using Serpent 2, a continuous-energy Monte Carlo reactor physics burnup code. Coupling between neutronics and thermal-hydraulic conditions with the fuel depletion is incorporated into the multi-dimensional branches, obtaining the thermal flux and fission rate (power) distributions radially and axially from the three dimensional (3D) single assembly level to a 3D full core. Shannon entropy is employed to characterise the convergence of the fission source distribution, with 3 billion neutron histories tracked by parallel computing. Source biasing is applied for the variance reduction. Benchmarking the proposed Monte Carlo 3D full-core model against the traditional deterministic transport computation suite used by the UK Office for Nuclear Regulation (ONR), a reasonably good agreement within statistics is demonstrated for the safety-related reactivity coefficients, which creates trust in the EPR safety report.

Social recommendation is almost as the integration of the business platform and social platform, and gradually become a top in recommendation system. Social recommendation algorithm solves the problem of cold start and data sparseness for traditional commodity, while the internal structure of the relationship graph in social relations has not been fully excavated. This paper proposes two models of Micro Relation Transfer Model and Macro Relation Transfer Model of social relations, and applies the social relations transfer models into the social recommendation system. A relationship graph is built from the relationship between customers on the Internet. Micro Relation Transfer Model establishes the transfer activation function by calculating the relationship between the two customers using the similarity of interests set. Micro Relation Transfer Model spreads the relationship of friends by calculating the proportion of common neighbors held by the customer's social relations. In order to effectively control the transmission range and effect of social relations graph, we introduce pruning algorithm based on Monte Carlo Decision Tree convergence algorithm. The experimental results show that SRRTC algorithm enhances the success rate and stability significantly.

Estimates of extreme water level return periods in river systems are crucial for hydraulic engineering design and planning. Recorded historical water level data of Taiwan’s rivers are not long enough for traditional frequency analyses when predicting extreme water levels for different return periods. In this study, the integration of a one-dimensional flash flood routing hydrodynamic model with the Monte Carlo simulation was developed to predict extreme water levels in the Danshuei River system of northern Taiwan. The numerical model was calibrated and verified with observed water levels using four typhoon events. The results indicated a reasonable agreement between the model simulation and observation data. Seven parameters, including the astronomical tide and surge height at the mouth of the Danshuei River and the river discharge at five gauge stations, were adopted to calculate the joint probability and generate stochastic scenarios via the Monte Carlo simulation. The validated hydrodynamic model driven by the stochastic scenarios was then used to simulate extreme water levels for further frequency analysis. The design water level was estimated using different probability distributions in the frequency analysis at five stations. The design high-water levels for a 200-year return period at Guandu Bridge, Taipei Bridge, Hsin-Hai Bridge, Da-Zhi Bridge, and Chung-Cheng Bridge were 2.90 m, 5.13 m, 6.38 m, 6.05 m, and 9.94 m, respectively. The estimated design water levels plus the freeboard are proposed and recommended for further engineering design and planning.

This research work deals with the modeling and control of hybrid photovoltaic (PV) - Wind micro-grid using Quasi Z-Source inverter. This inverter provides better buck/boost characteristics, able to regulate the phase angle output, less harmonic content, no requirement of the filter and has high power performance characteristics over conventional inverter as major benefits. A SEPIC converter as dc-dc switched power apparatus is employed for maximum power point tracking (MPPT) functions which provides high voltage gain throughout the process. Moreover, a modified power ratio variable step (MPRVS) based perturb & observe (P&O) method has been proposed in the PV MPPT action which forces the operating point close to maximum power point (MPP). Practical responses justify the performance of hybrid PV-Wind micro-grid with Quasi Z-Source inverter structure.

Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling propagators, including numerical integrators for stochastic dynamics, are central to the calculation of thermodynamic quantities and determination of structure for molecular systems. Efficiency is paramount, and to a great extent, this is determined by the integrated autocorrelation time (IAcT). This quantity varies depending on the observable that is being estimated. It is suggested that it is the maximum of the IAcT over all observables that is the relevant metric. Reviewed here is a method for estimating this quantity. For reversible propagators (which are those that satisfy detailed balance), the maximum IAcT is determined by the spectral gap in the forward transfer operator, but for irreversible propagators, the maximum IAcT can be far less than or greater than what might be inferred from the spectral gap. This is consistent with recent theoretical results (not to mention past practical experience) suggesting that irreversible propagators generally perform better if not much better than reversible ones. Typical irreversible propagators involve a parameter controlling the mix of ballistic and diffusive movement. To gain insight into the effect of the damping parameter for Langevin dynamics, its optimal value is obtained here for a multidimensional quadratic potential energy function.

The independent set, IS, on a graph $G=(V,E)$ is $V^{*}\subseteq V$ such that no two vertices in $V^{*}$ have an edge between them. The MIS problem on G seeks to identify an IS with maximum cardinality, i.e. MIS. $V^{*}\subseteq V$ is a vertex cover, i.e. VC of $G=(V,E)$ if every $e\in E$ is incident upon at least one vertex in $V^{*}$ . $V^{*}\subseteq V$ is dominating set, DS, of $G=(V,E)$ if $\forall v\in V$ either $v\in V^{*}$ or $\exists u\in V^{*}$ and $(u,v)\in E$ . The MVC problem on G seeks to identify a vertex cover with minimum cardinality, i.e. MVC. Likewise, MCV seeks a connected vertex cover, i.e. VC which forms one component in G, with minimum cardinality, i.e. MCV. A connected DS, CDS, is a DS that forms a connected component in G. The problems MDS and MCD seek to identify a DS and a connected DS i.e. CDS respectively with minimum cardinalities. MIS, MVC, MDS, MCV and MCD on a general graph are known to be NP-complete. Polynomial time algorithms are known for bipartite graphs, chordal graphs, cycle graphs, comparability graphs, claw-free graphs, interval graphs and circular arc graphs for some of these problems. We introduce a novel graph class, layered graph, where each layer refers to a subgraph containing at most some k vertices. Inter layer edges are restricted to the vertices in adjacent layers. We show that if $k=\Theta (log\mid V\mid )$ then MIS, MVC and MDS can be computed in polynomial time and if $k=O\left({(log\mid V\mid )}^{\alpha }\right)$ , where $\alpha <1$ , then MCV and MCD can be computed in polynomial time. If $k=\Theta \left({(log\mid V\mid )}^{1+ϵ}\right)$ , for $ϵ>0$ , then MIS, MVC and MDS require quasi-polynomial time. If $k=\Theta (log\mid V\mid )$ then MCV, MCD require quasi-polynomial time. Layered graphs do have constraints such as bipartiteness, planarity and acyclicity.

In the wake of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic devastating the world, it is imperative to elucidate the comparative genomics of geographically-diverse strains of this novel coronavirus to gain insights into its microevolution, pathogenesis and control. Here we explore the molecular nature, genome-wide frequency, and gene-wise distribution of mutations in three distinct datasets encompassing 68 SARS-CoV-2 RNA-genomes altogether. While phylogenomic analysis revealed parallelism between the evolutionary paths charted by distinct quasispecies clusters of the virus, occurrence of mutations across genomes was found to be non-random. Whereas deletion mutations are extremely scarce and insertions totally absent, of all the instances of single nucleotide substitution detected, the overwhelming majority were transition mutations with cytidine to uridine being the most prevalent type. Propensity of this transition could be attributed to hydrolytic deamination mediated by ultra-violet irradiation or bisulfite reagent, both of which find wide usage as sterilizer/disinfectant. Transversions, albeit few and predominated by the guanosine to uridine form, were found concentrated in loci encoding the structural proteins of the virus, so might confer versatile tissue-colonization potentials. Mutation frequency of the three distinct genome-sets ranged narrowly between 0.07-1.08 × 10^-4 nucleotides positions mutated per nucleotide aligned. Gene-wise mapping of the global mutations illuminated the highly conserved nature of the genes encoding the non-structural proteins Nsp7, Nsp8 (two essential cofactors of the viral RNA-dependent RNA-polymerase) and Nsp9 (Nsp8-interacting single-strand RNA-binding protein), plus the envelope protein E (involved in SARS-CoV-2 assembly, budding and pathogenesis). These mutation-free genomic loci and/or their protein products could be potent targets for future drug designing/targeting.

Land Surface Temperature (LST) is a basic parameter in energy exchange between the land and atmosphere and is frequently used in many sciences such as climatology, hydrology, agriculture, ecology, etc. LST time series data have usually deficient, missing and unacceptable data caused by the presence of clouds in images, presence of dust in atmosphere and sensor failure. In this study, Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) algorithm was used to resolve the problem of missing and outlier data caused by cloud cover. The region studied in the present research included an image frame of MODIS with horizontal number 22 and vertical number 05 (h22v05). This image involved a large part of Iran and Turkmenistan and Caspian Sea. In this study, MODIS LST sensor (MOD11A1) was used during 2015 with 1×1 Km spatial resolution and day/night LST data (daily temporal resolution). The results of the data quality showed that cloud cover caused 36.37% of missing data in the studied time series with 730 day/night LST images. Further, the results of SSA algorithm in reconstruction of LST images indicated the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 2.95 K between the original and reconstructed data in LST time series in the study region. In general, the findings showed that SSA algorithm using spatio-temporal interpolation in LST time series can be effectively used to resolve the problem of missing data caused by cloud cover.

Dynamic hedging has been adopted by many insurance companies to mitigate the financial risks associated with variable annuity guarantees. In order to simulate the performance of dynamic hedging for variable annuity products, insurance companies rely on nested stochastic projections, which is highly computationally intensive and often prohibitive for large variable annuity portfolios. Metamodeling techniques have recently been proposed to address the computational issues. However, it is difficult for researchers to obtain real datasets from insurance companies to test metamodeling techniques and publish the results in academic journals. In this paper, we create synthetic datasets that can be used for the purpose of addressing the computational issues associated with the nested stochastic valuation of large variable annuity portfolios. The runtime used to create these synthetic datasets would be about 3 years if a single CPU were used. These datasets are readily available to researchers and practitioners so that they can focus on testing metamodeling techniques.

The present work is concerned with the study of the generalized Langevin equation and its link to the physical theories of statistical mechanics and scale relativity. It is demonstrated that the form of the coefficients of Langevin equation depend critically on the assumption of continuity of the reconstructed trajectory. This in turn demands for the fluctuations of the diffusion term to be discontinuous in time. This paper further investigates the connection between the scale-relativistic and stochastic mechanics approaches, respectively, with the study of the Burgers equation, which in this case appears as a stochastic geodesic equation. By further demanding time reversibility of the drift the Langevin equation can also describe equivalent quantum-mechanical systems in a path-wise manner. The resulting statistical description obeys the Fokker-Plank equation of the probability density of the differential system, which can be readily estimated from Monte Carlo simulations of the random paths. Based on the Fokker-Plank formalism a new derivation of the transient probability densities is presented. Finally, stochastic simulations are compared to the theoretical results.

Sumudu transform of the Dixon elliptic function with non zero modulus a ≠ 0 for arbitrary powers sm^N(x,a) ; N ≥ 1 ; sm^N(x,a)cm(x,a) ; N ≥ 0 and sm^N(x,a)cm²(x,a) ; N ≥ 0 is given by product of Quasi C fractions. Next by assuming denominators of Quasi C fraction to 1 and hence applying Heliermann correspondance relating formal power series (Maclaurin series of Dixon elliptic functions) and regular C fraction, Hankel determinants are calculated and showed by taking a = 0 gives the Hankel determinants of regular C fraction. The derived results were back tracked to the Laplace transform of sm(x,a) ; cm(x,a) and sm(x,a)cm(x,a).

The properties of rubber are strongly influenced by the distribution of filler within the polymer matrix. Here we introduce a Monte Carlo-based morphology generator. The basic elements of our model are cubic cells, which, in the current version, can be either silica filler particles or rubber volume elements in adjustable proportion. The model allows the assignment of surface free energies to the particles according to whether a surface represents, for instance, 'naked' silica or silanised silica. The amount of silanisation is variable. We use a nearest-neighbour site-exchange Monte Carlo algorithm to generate filler morphologies, mimicking flocculation. Transmission electron micrographs (TEM) as well as small angle scattering (SAS) intensities can be calculated along the Monte Carlo trajectory. In this work we demonstrate the application of our morphology generator in terms of selected examples. We illustrate its potential as a tool for screening studies, relating interface tensions between the components to filler network structure as characterized by TEM and SAS.

This study evaluates eight-year ownership costs for battery electric vehicles (BEV) versus non-plugin hybrid vehicles using forecasting to estimate future electricity and conventional gasoline prices and incorporating these in a multiple design of experiments simulation. Results suggest that while electric vehicles are statistically dominant in terms of variable costs over an 8-year life-span, high-performance hybrid non-plugins achieve variable fuel costs nearly as good as low-performing electric vehicles (those attaining only 3 miles per kilowatt hour) and that these hybrid acquisition costs are (on average) lower yet the vehicles retain higher residual values. In general, the six smallest ownership costs are split evenly between hybrid and electric vehicles; however, inflation for conventional regular gasoline is estimated to outstrip inflation per kilowatt hour. Thus, non-plugin hybrid cars are likely to require considerably more advanced engineering to keep pace.

Fluctuations of protein three-dimensional structures and large-scale conformational transitions are crucial for the biological function of proteins and their complexes. Experimental studies of such phenomena remain very challenging and therefore molecular modeling can be a good alternative or a valuable supporting tool for the investigation of large molecular systems and long-time events. In this mini-review, we present two alternative approaches to the coarse-grained (CG) modeling of dynamic properties of protein systems. We discuss two CG representations of polypeptide chains used for Monte Carlo dynamics simulations of protein local dynamics and conformational transitions and, on other hand, highly simplified structure-based Elastic Network Models of protein flexibility. In contrast to classical Molecular Dynamics the modeling strategies discussed here allow quite accurate modeling of much larger systems and longer time dynamic phenomena. We briefly describe the main features of these models and outline some of their applications, including modeling of near-native structure fluctuations, sampling of large regions of the protein conformational space, or possible support for the structure prediction of large proteins and their complexes.

The present work deals with the development of finite element methodology for obtaining the stress distributions in thick cylindrical HK40 stainless steel pipe that carry high temperature fluids. The material properties and loading are assumed to be random variables. Thermal stresses that are generated along radial, axial and tangential directions are computed generally using analytical expressions which are very complex. To circumvent such an issue, the probability theory and mathematical statistics have been applied to many engineering problems which allows to determine the safety both quantitatively and objectively based on the concepts of reliability. Monte Carlo simulation methodology is used to study the probabilistic characteristics of thermal stresses which is used for estimating the probabilistic distributions of stresses against the variations arising due to material properties and load. A 2-D Probabilistic finite element code is developed in MATLAB and the deterministic solution is compared with ABAQUS solutions. The values of stresses that are obtained from the variation of elastic modulus are found to be low as compared to the case where the load alone is varying. The probability of failure of the pipe structure is predicted against the variations in internal pressure and thermal gradient. These finite element framework developments are useful for the life estimation of piping structures in high temperature applications and subsequently quantifying the uncertainties in loading and material properties.

With the growth of air traffic demand in busy airspace, there is an urgent need for airspace sectorization to increase air traffic throughput and ease the pressure on controllers. The purpose of this paper is to develop a method framework that can perform airspace sectorization automatically, reasonably, which can be used as an advisory tool for controllers as an automatic system, especially for eliminating irregular sector shapes generated by simulated annealing algorithm (SAA) based on region growth method. Two graph cutting method, dynamic Monte Carlo method by changing location of flexible vertices (MC-CLFV) and Monte Carlo method by radius changing (MC-RC) were developed to eliminating irregular sector shapes generated by SAA in post-processing. The experimental results show that the proposed method framework of AS can automatically and reasonably generate sector design schemes that meet the design criteria. Our methodology framework and software can provide assistant design and analysis tools for airspace planners to design airspace, improve the reliability and efficiency of airspace design, and reduce the burden of airspace planners. In addition, this lays the foundation for reconstructing airspace with more intelligent method.

Waterbomb structures are origami-inspired deformable structural components used in new types of robots. They have a unique radially deployable ability that enables robots to better adapt to their environment. In this paper, we propose a series of new waterbomb structures with square, rectangle, and parallelogram base units. Through quasi-static axial and radial compression experiments and numerical simulations, we prove that the parallelogram waterbomb structure has a twist displacement mode along the axial direction. Compared with the square waterbomb structure, the proposed optimal design of the parallelogram waterbomb structure reduces the critical axial buckling load-to-weight ratio by 55.4% and increases the radial stiffness-to-weight ratio by 67.6%. The significant increase in the radial stiffness-to-weight ratio of the waterbomb structure and decrease in the critical axial buckling load-to-weight ratio make the proposed origami pattern attractive for practical robotics applications.

Creating self-learning algorithms, developing deep neural networks and improving other methods that "learn" for various areas of human activity is the main goal of the theory of machine learning. It helps to replace the human with a machine, aiming to increase the quality of production. The theory of artificial neural networks, which already have replaced the humans in problems of detection of moving objects, recognition of images or sounds, time series prediction, big data analysis and numerical methods remains the most dispersed branch of the theory of machine learning. Certainly, for each area of human activity it is necessary to select appropriate neural network architectures, methods of data processing and some novel tools from applied mathematics. But the universal problem for all these neural networks with specific data is the achieving the highest accuracy in short time. Such problem can be resolved by increasing sizes of architectures and improving data preprocessing, where the accuracy rises with the training time. But there is a possibility to increase the accuracy without time growing, applying optimization methods. In this survey we demonstrate existing optimization algorithms of all types, which can be used in neural networks. There are presented modifications of basic optimization algorithms, such as stochastic gradient descent, adaptive moment estimation, Newton and quasi-Newton optimization methods. But the most recent optimization algorithms are related to information geometry, for Fisher-Rao and Bregman metrics. This approach in optimization extended the theory of classic neural networks to quantum and complex-valued neural networks, due to geometric and probabilistic tools. There are provided applications of all introduced optimization algorithms, what delighted many kinds of neural networks, which can be improved by including any advanced approaches in minimization of the loss function. Afterwards, we demonstrated ways of developing optimization algorithms in further researches, engaging neural networks with progressive architectures. Classical gradient based optimizers can be replaced by fractional order, bilevel and, even, gradient free optimization methods. There is a possibility to add such analogues in graph, spiking, complex-valued, quantum and wavelet neural networks. Besides the usual problems of image recognition, time series prediction, object detection, there are many are other tasks for modern theory of machine learning, such as solving problem of quantum computations, partial differential and integro-differential equations, stochastic processes and Brownian motion, making decisions and computer algebra.

The classical Rotational Isomeric State (RIS) model, originally proposed by Flory, has been used to rationalize a wide range of physicochemical properties of neutral polymers. However, many weak polyelectrolytes of interest are able to regulate their charge depending on the conformational state of the bonds. Recently, it has been shown that the RIS model can be coupled with the Site Binding (SB) model, for which the ionizable sites can adopt two states: protonated or deprotonated. The resulting combined scheme, the SBRIS model, allows to analyse ionization and conformational equilibria on the same foot. In the present work this approach is extended to include pH-dependent electrostatic Long Range (LR) interactions, ubiquitous in weak polyelectrolytes at moderate and low ionic strengths. With this aim the original LR interactions are taken into account by defining effective Short Range (SR) and pH-dependent parameters, such as effective microscopic protonation constants and rotational bond energies. The new parameters are systematically calculated using variational methods. The machinery of statistical mechanics for SR interactions, including the powerful and fast transfer matrix methods, can then be applied. The resulting technique, to which we will refer as Local Effective Interaction Parameters (LEIP) method, is illustrated with a minimal model of a flexible linear polyelectrolyte containing only one type of rotating bonds. LEIP reproduces very well the pH dependence of the degree of protonation and bond probabilities obtained by semi-grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations, where LR interactions are taken explicitly into account. The reduction in the computational time in several orders of magnitude suggests that the LEIP technique could be useful in a range of areas involving linear weak polyelectrolytes, allowing direct fitting of the relevant physical parameters to the experimental quantities.

The residential sector in the United States is in need of comprehensive policy-making reforms that concurrently address housing affordability and environmental sustainability. This study investigates the feasibility of state-wide zero-energy affordable housing by analyzing historical data on climate, energy use, and solar system costs in the Commonwealth of Virginia. The hypothesis examined is that the net present cost of implementation of rooftop residential solar systems to achieve zero-energy Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) buildings is lower than the discounted present cost of energy of otherwise identical conventional buildings that run without renewable energy generation systems. The authors propose a generalizable framework for analyzing the feasibility of achieving region- or state-wide zero-energy LIHTC developments. To validate the framework, the authors employ a longitudinal sample of monthly energy use data from 2013-2016 obtained from 310 residential units of 15 LIHTC developments across the state. Based on statistical regression analysis, energy simulation, and simulation-based risk analysis, the authors find that the net present value of zero-energy LIHTC investments can be positive with a low risk. The investment value varies often depending on the zero-energy building definition, weather characteristics, retail price of electricity, and incentive rate. This study can help housing policymakers and industry professionals analyze and benchmark the feasibility of innovative zero-energy housing policies and projects.

During the recent decades, global warming by greenhouse gas evolution has attracted worldwide attention and evermore strict regulations thereon have become institutionalized as international policies. In the process, more environment-friendly power generation technologies have been developed utilizing fossil fuels with a view to timely commercialization. As one of such “clean coal” technology, Integrated Gasification Fuel Cell system is a promising power generation means and COS hydrolysis reactor is installed downstream of coal syngas to remove acidic gas constituents such as H2S and COS. The most significant design parameters affecting performance of the COS hydrolysis reactor were selected to be GHSV, (catalytic) reaction temperature, and length ratio and numerical modeling was performed considering heat and fluid flow transfer as well as chemical reaction kinetics. Effect of the selected design parameters on the variation of conversion rate and reactant gas mixture concentration were comprehensively investigated to predict performance of COS hydrolysis reactor. Stochastic modeling of reactor performance was finally performed using Monte Carlo simulation and linear regression fitting.

Rubble stone masonry walls are widely diffused in most of the cultural and architectural heritage of historical cities. The mechanical response of such material is rather complicated to predict due to their composite nature. Vertical compression tests, diagonal compression tests, and shear-compression tests are usually adopted to experimentally investigate the mechanical properties of stone masonries. However, further tests are needed for the safety assessment of these ancient structures. Since the relation between normal and shear stresses plays a major role in the shear behavior of masonry joints, governing the failure mode, triplet test configuration was here investigated. First, the experimental tests carried out at the laboratory (LPMS) of the University of L'Aquila on stone masonry specimens were presented. Then, the triplet test was simulated by using the Total Strain Crack Model, which reflects all the ultimate states of quasi-brittle material such as cracking, crushing and shear failure. The goal of the numerical investigation was to evaluate the shear mechanical parameters of the masonry sample, including strength, dilatancy, normal and shear deformations. Furthermore, the effect of (i) confinement pressure and (ii) bond behavior at the sample-plates interfaces were investigated, showing that they can strongly influence the mechanical response of the walls.

Bayesian nonlinear mixed effects models for data in the form of continuous, repeated measurements from a population, also known as Bayesian hierarchical nonlinear models, are a popular platform for analysis when interest focuses on individual specific characteristics and relevant uncertainty quantification. Due to the limitation of computational power, this framework was relatively dormant until the late 1980s, but in recent years, the statistical research community saw vigorous development of new methodological and computational techniques for these models, the emergence of software, and wide application of the models in numerous industrial and academic fields. This article presents an overview of the formulation, interpretation, and implementation of Bayesian nonlinear mixed effects models and surveys recent advances and applications.

In this paper the authors present a method which facilitates computationally efficient parameter estimation of dynamical systems from a continuously growing set of measurement data. It is shown that the proposed method, which utilises Sequential Monte Carlo samplers, is guaranteed to be fully parallelisable (in contrast to Markov chain Monte Carlo methods) and can be applied to a wide variety of scenarios within structural dynamics. Its ability to allow convergence of one's parameter estimates, as more data is analysed, sets it apart from other sequential methods (such as the particle filter).

Analytical solutions for radiation dominated phase of Quasi Steady State Cosmology in Friedmann-Robertson-Walkar models are obtained. We find that matter density is positive in all the cases (k = 0,-1,1). The nature of Hubble parameter (H) in [0,2] is discussed. The deceleration parameter (q) is marginally less than zero indicating accelerating universe. The scale factor (S) is graphically shown with time. The model represents oscillating universe between the above mentioned limits. Because of bounce in QSSC, the maximum density phase is still matter dominated. The models represent singularity free model. We also find that the models have event horizon i.e. no observer beyond the proper distance rH can communicate each other in FRW mdels for radiation dominated phase in the frame work of QSSC. The FRW models are special classes of Bianchi type I, V, IX space-times with zero, negative and positive curvatures respectively. Initially i.e. at  = 0, the model represents steady model. We have tried to show how a good fit can be obtained to the observations in the framework of QSSC during radiation dominated phase.

We estimated the daily intakes of chlorpyrifos and cypermethrin via ingestion of indoor dust and outdoor soils using the Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation Model on a probabilistic approach for Taiwan’s homes. Variable information for the daily intake estimation, such as concentration, ingestion rate, body weight, was adopted from previous studies. Monte Carlo simulation was performed with 1,000,000 iterations to simulate a single daily intake, which was shown in terms of percentage of the Acceptable Daily Intake (ADI) of either insecticide. The daily intakes were minimal with a 99% probability; at 99.9th percentile, however, the total intakes leaped to 13.1% and 20.0% of the respective ADIs of chlorpyrifos and cypermethrin. The sensitivity analysis indicated that concentration was the most determinant variable. Compared to the data of daily intakes via dietary ingestion of vegetables derived from a previous study, the estimated intakes by this study were considerable at the highest percentile, which referred to insecticide residues few days after insecticide application. Consequently, the non-dietary ingestion exposure to either insecticide was negligible in most cases; nevertheless, for those with indoor insecticide applications, the daily intakes for young children could be of concern. Frequently home cleaning is recommended to reduce the exposure.

This paper compares the finite sample performance of three non-parametric threshold estimators via Monte Carlo method. Our results show that the finite sample performance of the three estimators is not robust to the relative position of the threshold level along the distribution of threshold variable, especially when a structural change occurs at the tail part of the distribution.

Confidence interval of is an interval corresponding to a specified confidence and including the true value. It can be used to describe the precision of a statistical quantity and quantify its uncertainty. Although the principle of maximum entropy (POME) has been used for a variety of applications in hydrology, the confidence intervals of the POME quantile estimators have not been available. In this study, the calculation formulas of asymptotic variances and confidence intervals of quantiles based on POME for Gamma, Pearson type 3 (P3) and Extreme value type 1 (EV1) distributions were derived. Monte Carlo Simulation experiments were performed to evaluate the performance of derived formulas for finite samples. Using four data sets for annual precipitation at the Weihe River basin in China, the derived formulas were applied for calculating the variances and confidence intervals of precipitation quantiles for different return periods and the results were compared with those of the methods of moments (MOM) and of maximum likelihood (ML) method. It is shown that POME yields the smallest standard errors and the narrowest confidence intervals of quantile estimators among the three methods, and can reduce the uncertainty of quantile estimators

Firstly, a new set of Quasi-Cubic Trigonometric Bernstein basis with two tension shape parameters is constructed, and we prove that it is an optimal normalized totally basis in the framework of Quasi Extended Chebyshev space. And the Quasi-Cubic Trigonometric Bézier curve is generated by the basis function and the cutting algorithm of the curve are given, the shape features (cusp, inflection point, loop and convexity) of the Quasi-Cubic Trigonometric Bézier curve are analyzed by using envelope theory and topological mapping; Next we construct the non-uniform Quasi-Cubic Trigonometric B-spline basis by assuming the linear combination of the optimal normalized totally positive basis have partition of unity and continuity, and its expression is obtained. And the non-uniform B-spline basis is proved to have totally positive and high-order continuity. Finally, the non-uniform Quasi Cubic Trigonometric B-spline curve and surface are defined, the shape features of the non-uniform Quasi-Cubic Trigonometric B-spline curve are discussed, and the curve and surface are proved to be continuous.

Variations in the implant thread shape and occlusal load behavior may result in significant changes in the biological and mechanical properties of dental implants and surrounding bone tissue. Most previous studies consider a single implant thread design, an isotropic bone structure, and a static occlusal load. However, the effects of different thread designs, bone material properties, and loading conditions are important concerns in clinical practice. Accordingly, the present study performs Finite Element Analysis (FEA) simulations to investigate the static, quasi-static and dynamic response of the implant and implanted bone material under various thread designs and occlusal loading directions (buccal-lingual, mesiodistal and apical). The simulations focus specifically on the von Mises stress, displacement, shear stress, compressive stress and tensile stress within the implant and the surrounding bone. The results show that the thread design and occlusal loading rate have a significant effect on the stress distribution and deformation of the implant and bone structure during clinical applications. Overall, the results provide a useful insight into the design of enhanced dental implants for an improved load transfer efficiency and success rate.

In the field of pavement engineering, the determination of the mechanical characteristics is one of the essential process for reliable material design and highway sustainability. Early determination of mechanical characteristics of pavement is highly essential for road and highway construction and maintenance. Tensile strength (TS), compressive strength (CS) and flexural strength (FS) of roller compacted concrete pavement (RCCP) are very crucial characteristics as they are necessitated for many data from mixture proportions as input variables. In this research, the classification-based regression models named Random Forest (RF), M5rule model tree (M5rule), M5prime model tree (M5p) and Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID) are developed for simulation of the mechanical characteristics of RCCP. A comprehensive and reliable dataset comprising 621, 326 and 290 data records for CS, TS and FS experimental cases extracted from several open sources over the literature. The mechanical properties are developed based on influential inputs combination that processed using Principle Component Analysis (PCA). The applied PCA method as feature selection is specified that volumetric/weighted content forms of experimental variables (e.g., coarse aggregate, fine aggregate, supplementary cementitious materials, water and binder) and specimens’ age are the most effective inputs to generate the better performances. Several statistical metrics are measured to evaluate proposed classification-based regression models. RF model revealed an optimistic classification capacity of the CS, TS and FS prediction of the RCCP in comparison with the CHAID, M5rule, and M5p models. The research is extended for the results verification using Monte-carlo model for the uncertainty and sensitivity of variables importance analysis. Overall, the proposed methodology indicated a reliable soft computing model that can be implemented for the material engineering construction and design.

Systematic traders employ algorithmic strategies to manage their investments. As a result of the deterministic nature of such strategies, it is possible to determine their exact responses to any conceivable set of market conditions. Consequently, sensitivity analysis can be conducted to systematically uncover undesirable strategy behavior and enhance strategy robustness by adding controls to reduce exposure during periods of poor performance / unfavorable market conditions or increase exposure during periods of strong performance / favorable market conditions. In this study, we formulate both a simple systematic trend-following strategy (i.e., trading model) to simulate investment decisions, and a market model to simulate the evolution of instrument prices. We then map the relationship between market model parameters under various conditions and strategy performance. We focus, in particular, on identifying the performance impact of changes in both serial dependence in price variability and changes in the trend. The long-range serial dependence of the true range worsens performance of the simple classic trend-following strategy. During periods of strong performance, the dispersion of trading outcomes increases significantly as long-range serial dependence increases.

Dermal water content is an important biophysical parameter in preserving skin integrity and preventing skin damage. Traditional electrical-based and open-chamber evaporimeters have several well-known limitations. In particular, such devices are costly, sizeable, and only provide arbitrary outputs. They also do not permit continuous and non-invasive monitoring of dermal water content, which can be beneficial for various consumer, clinical and cosmetic purposes. We report here on the design and development of a digital multi-wavelength optical sensor that performs continuous and non-invasive measurement of dermal water content. In-silico investigation on porcine skin was carried out using the Monte Carlo modelling strategy to evaluate the feasibility and characterise the sensor. Subsequently, an in-vitro experiment was carried out to evaluate the performance of the sensor and benchmark its accuracy against a high-end, broad band spectrophotometer. Reference measurements were made against gravimetric analysis. The results demonstrate that the developed sensor can deliver accurate, continuous, and non-invasive measurement of skin hydration through measurement of dermal water content. Remarkably, the novel design of the sensor exceeded the performance of the high-end spectrophotometer due to the important denoising effects of temporal averaging. The authors believe, in addition to wellbeing and skin health monitoring, the designed sensor can particularly facilitate disease management in patients presenting diabetes mellitus, hypothyroidism, malnutrition, and atopic dermatitis.

Current industrial trends bring new challenges in energy absorbing systems. Polymer materials as the traditional packaging material seem to be promising due to their low weight, structure and production price. Based on the review, the linear low-density polyethylene material was identified as the most promising material for absorbing impact energy. The current paper addresses the identification of the material parameters and the development of a Constitutive material model to be used in future design by virtual prototyping. The paper deals with the experimental measurement of the stress-strain relations of the linear low-density polyethylene under static and dynamic loading. The quasi-static measurement is realized in two perpendicular principal directions and is supplemented by a test measurement in the 45 degrees direction, i.e. exactly between the principal directions. The quasi-static stress-strain curves are analyzed as an initial step for dynamic strain rate dependent material behavior. The dynamic response is tested in the drop tower using a spherical impactor hitting the flat material multi-layered specimen at two different energy levels. The strain rate dependent material model is identified by optimizing the static material response obtained in the dynamic experiments. The material model is validated by the virtual reconstruction of the experiments and by comparing the numerical results to the experimental ones.

Muography is an expanding technique for the investigation of the internal structure of targets of interest in geophysics. The flux of high penetrating muons produced by primary cosmic rays is attenuated by traversing kilometer size objects like X-ray flux is attenuated through the human body. This gives the possibility to study the internal structure of volcanoes or underground cavities, e.g., starting from the measure of the muon flux transmission through the target. Many groups of researchers working with this technique have to face with high background level that afflicts the reconstruction of muon tracks near the horizontal direction. An important source of background is the scattering of particles near the detector that produces a wrong reconstruction of the incoming direction. An innovative technique based on Cherenkov radiation was investigated by means of Monte Carlo simulations developed in Geant4 toolkit and MATLAB. The results reported in this paper show that the presented technique is able to correctly distinguish the incoming direction of particles with an efficiency higher than 98%. This new kind of detector could represent an alternative for high resolution charged particle tracking also for other applications.

Mobile robots need an environmental perception ability in order to interact with the surrounding environment. In this paper we present the G-SLAM method, where the map is consisted of a cloud of scattered points in the continuous space and each point is accompanied by an obstacle existence probability. On the other hand the robot's pose (and trajectory) is estimated by an particle filters while the cloud of points is estimated by an adaptive recursive algorithm which is presented. Main feature of the presented method is the adaptive repositioning of the scattered points and their convergence around obstacles. In addition to our previous publications, In this paper a mathematical derivation of the method is presented and real case scenarios are discussed, presented and compared with other methods.

An important aspect of PET imaging in clinical application is the localization and detection of tumors and lesions by administering a predetermined amount of radiotracer. This allows for example, a detailed view of what is going inside the patient body in cellular level. The quality of PET image is strongly dependent on the amount of administrated radiotracer and the patient’s body parameters. As the amount of injection radiotracer increases, the quality of resulting image increases and the lesion detection efficiency increases. The PET examiner society recognizes that any dose of radiotracer is associated with some possible radiation risks. It can harmful to the patient if essential PET imaging session is not made due to fear of radiation risk. In order to ensure the highest quality diagnosis and the smallest radiation risk, the patient should receive the smallest amount of radiotracer that provide image with sufficient quality. Our study is focused on proposing an efficient PET simulation tool that predict the smallest possible amount of administrated radiotracer to provides the appropriate diagnostic information based on significant patient’s body parameters (weight, age) at fixed scanning to improve the clinical diagnostic process in term of tumor detecting and localization. We have built a model of particular PET scanner and model of patient based on real MRI image and digital anthropomorphic phantom of our region of interest (brain). We have performed Monte Carlo simulation for whole PET procedure with special parameter In evaluating stage, a dataset of 60 patient is used and 11 independent dose prediction simulation for each patient are performed. We conclude that our simulator perform a desirable and efficient prediction of injection radiotracer amount that optimizes the current clinical amount up to 28%. In addition, we found that the total injected radiotracer dosage for adult patients are mostly affected when considering patient weight rather than patient age.

Ability of quantitative structure – property / activity relationships (QSPRs/QSARs) to serve for epistemological processes in natural sciences is discussed. Some weirdness of QSPR/QSAR state-of-art are listed. There are some contradictions in the research results in this area. Sometimes, these should be classified as paradoxes or weirdness. These points often are ignored. Here these are listed and briefly commented. In addition, hypothesises on the future evolution of the QSPR/QSAR theory and practice are suggested.

Nowadays, the uses of laser and optics in the medical areas are extremely vivid, especially low-level laser therapy. The light with the wavelength of 633 nm to 1200 nm could penetrate and propagate deep in biological tissue. To develop the low-level laser therapy device, optimizing light delivery is critical to accurately stimulate the biological effects inside the biological tissue. Nevertheless, each form of the tissues at each zone on the body had various refractive optic, absorption, scattering, and anisotropy coefficients. This paper describes the simulation results of low-level laser propagation from skin surface at the lower spine, the knee, the femur and the prostate gland with four wavelengths (633 nm, 780 nm, 850 nm, and 940 nm) by the Monte Carlo method. These simulation results are the base for developing the low-level laser therapy device, that could be used in clinical for treating the fracture, knee osteoarthritis, spinal degeneration, and benign prostatic hypertrophy.

The reliability analysis allows to estimate the system's probability of detecting and identifying outlier. Failure to identify an outlier can jeopardise the reliability level of a system. Due to its importance, outliers must be appropriately treated to ensure the normal operation of a system. The system models are usually developed from certain constraints. Constraints play a central role in model precision and validity. In this work, we present a detailed optical investigation of the effects of the hard and soft constraints on the reliability of a measurement system model. Hard constraints represent a case in which there exist known functional relations between the unknown model parameters, whereas the soft constraints are employed for the case where such functional relations can slightly be violated depending on their uncertainty. The results highlighted that the success rate of identifying an outlier for the case of hard constraints is larger than soft constraints. This suggested that hard constraints should be used in the stage of pre-processing data for the purpose of identifying and removing possible outlying measurements. After identifying and removing possible outliers, one should set up the soft constraints to propagate the uncertainties of the constraints during the data processing. This recommendation is valid for outlier detection and identification purpose.

With data for SARS-CoV-2 and with many countries entering the second wave of contagion required the improvement of the forecasting model, structuring its model to forecast the peak of the first and second contagion wave in Brazil. The Model Estimation for SARS-CoV-2 Peak Contagion (MESPC) was structured, capable of estimating the peak of contagion for SARS-CoV-2 in the first and second waves, as the main objective of this work. Using the MESPC model, it was possible to estimate, with a certain reliability degree, the peak of contagion for the first and second waves in Brazil, with one day difference from the real to the forecast. It is possible to use MESPC to forecast the peak of contagion for several regions, provided that the necessary structure and calibration are respected.

We present set-theoretical solutions of the Yang-Baxter equation in BCK–algebras. Some solutions in BCK−algebras are not solutions in other structures (such as MV −algebras). Related to our investigations we also consider some new structures: Boolean coalgebras and a unified braid condition – quantum Yang-Baxter equation. Finally, we will see how poetry has accompanied the development / history of the Yang–Baxter equation.

For the in-house validation of a droplet digital PCR method, a factorial experimental design was implemented. This design serves different purposes. On the one hand, it is an efficient design in relation to the workload involved in achieving a desirable level of reliability of variance estimates. On the other hand, it allows a partitioning of total variance into different components, thus providing information regarding the dominant sources of random variation. The statistical modelling reflects the actual measurement mechanism, establishing relationships between nominal target DNA copies per well, the range of variation of copy numbers per droplet, probability of detection values, and estimated numbers of copies.

In this paper we evaluate the effects of hard and soft constraints on the Iterative Data Snooping (IDS), an iterative outlier elimination procedure. Here, the measurements of a levelling geodetic network were classified according to the local redundancy and maximum absolute correlation between the outlier test statistics, referred to as clusters. We highlight that the larger the relaxation of the constraints, the higher the sensitivity indicators MDB (Minimal Detectable Bias) and MIB (Minimal Identifiable Bias) for both the clustering of measurements and the clustering of constraints. There are circumstances that increase the family-wise error rate (FWE) of the test statistics, increase the performance of the IDS. Under a scenario of soft constraints, one should set out at least three soft constraints in order to identify an outlier in the constraints. In general, hard constraints should be used in the stage of pre-processing data for the purpose of identifying and removing possible outlying measurements. In that process, one should opt to set out the redundant hard constraints. After identifying and removing possible outliers, the soft constraints should be employed to propagate their uncertainties to the model parameters during the process of least-squares estimation.

Electricity distribution network operators face several operational constraints in the provision of safe and reliable power given that investments for network area reinforcement must be commensurate with improvements in network reliability. This paper provides an integrated approach for assessing the impact of different operational constraints on distribution network reliability by incorporating component lifetime models, time-varying component failure rates as well as the monetary cost of customer interruptions in an all-inclusive probabilistic methodology that applies a time-sequential Monte Carlo simulation. A test distribution network based on the Roy Billinton test system is modelled to investigate the system performance when overloading limits are exceeded as well as when preventive maintenance is performed. Standard reliability indices measuring the frequency and duration of interruptions, and the energy not supplied are complemented with a novel monetary reliability index. The comprehensive assessment includes not only average indices but also their probability distributions to adequately describe the risk of customer interruptions. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of this holistic approach as the impacts of operational decisions are assessed from both reliability and monetary perspectives. This informs network planning decisions through optimum investments and consideration of customer outage costs.

Evaluating new, promising organic molecules to make next-generation organic optoelectronic devices necessitates the evaluation of charge carrier transport performance through the semi-conducting medium. In this work, we utilize quantum chemical calculations (QCC) and kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations to predict the zero-field hole mobilities of ~100 morphologies of the benchmark polymer poly(3-hexylthiophene), with varying simulation volume, structural order, and chain-length polydispersity. Morphologies with monodisperse chains were generated previously using an optimized molecular dynamics force-field and represent a spectrum of nanostructured order. We discover that a combined consideration of backbone clustering and system-wide disorder arising from side-chain conformations are correlated with hole mobility. Furthermore, we show that strongly interconnected thiophene backbones are required for efficient charge transport. This definitively shows the role "tie-chains" play in enabling mobile charges in P3HT. By marrying QCC and KMC over multiple length- and time-scales, we demonstrate that it is now possible to routinely probe the relationship between molecular nanostructure and device performance.

The asymptotic dynamics of the classes of rational difference equations (RDEs) of third order defined over the positive real-line as $$\displaystyle{x_{n+1}=\frac{x_{n}}{ax_n+bx_{n-1}+cx_{n-2}}}, \displaystyle{x_{n+1}=\frac{x_{n-1}}{ax_n+bx_{n-1}+cx_{n-2}}}, \displaystyle{x_{n+1}=\frac{x_{n-2}}{ax_n+bx_{n-1}+cx_{n-2}}}$$ and $$\displaystyle{x_{n+1}=\frac{ax_n+bx_{n-1}+cx_{n-2}}{x_{n}}}, \displaystyle{x_{n+1}=\frac{ax_n+bx_{n-1}+cx_{n-2}}{x_{n-1}}}, \displaystyle{x_{n+1}=\frac{ax_n+bx_{n-1}+cx_{n-2}}{x_{n-2}}}$$ is investigated computationally with theoretical discussions and examples. It is noted that all the parameters $a, b, c$ and the initial values $x_{-2}, x_{-1}$ and $x_0$ are all positive real numbers such that the denominator is always positive. Several periodic solutions with high periods of the RDEs as well as their inter-intra dynamical behaviours are studied.

This research evaluates the inhibitory effect of L-amino acids (AAs) with different side chain lengths on Fe surface implementing Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. A quantitative and qualitative description of the adsorption behavior of AAs on the iron surface has been carried out. Calculations have shown that the absolute values of the adsorption energy of L-amino acids increase with side chain prolongation; they are also determined by the presence of heteroatoms. AAs from nonpolar and basic groups have the best adsorption ability to the iron surface, which indicates their highest inhibitory efficiency according to the results of MC simulation.

The Boltzmann-Gibbs (BG) entropy has been used in a wide variety of problems for more than a century. It is well known that BG entropy is extensive, but for certain systems such as those dictated by long-range interactions, the entropy must be non-extensive. Tsallis entropy possesses non-extensive characteristics, which is parametrized by a variable q (q = 1 being the classic BG limit), but unless q is determined from microscopic dynamics, the model remains but a phenomenological tool. To this date very few examples have emerged in which q can be computed from first principles. This paper shows that the space plasma environment, which is governed by long-range collective electromagnetic interaction, represents a perfect example for which the q parameter can be computed from micro-physics. By taking the electron velocity distribution function measured in the heliospheric environment into account, and considering them to be in quasi equilibrium state with electrostatic turbulence known as the quasi-thermal noise, it is shown that the value corresponding to q = 9/13 = 0.6923 may be deduced. This prediction is verified against observation made by spacecraft, and it is shown to be in excellent agreement.

An iterative outlier elimination procedure based on hypothesis testing, commonly known as Iterative Data Snooping (IDS) among geodesists, is often used for the quality control of the modern measurement systems in geodesy and surveying. The test statistic associated with IDS is the extreme normalised least-squares residual. It is well-known in the literature that critical values (quantile values) of such a test statistic cannot be derived from well-known test distributions, but must be computed numerically by means of Monte Carlo. This paper provides the first results about Monte Carlo-based critical value inserted to different scenarios of correlation between the outlier statistics. From the Monte Carlo evaluation, we compute the probabilities of correct identification, missed detection, wrong exclusion, overidentifications and statistical overlap associated with IDS in the presence of a single outlier. Based on such probability levels we obtain the Minimal Detectable Bias (MDB) and Minimal Identifiable Bias (MIB) for the case where IDS is in play. MDB and MIB are sensitivity indicators for outlier detection and identification, respectively. The results show that there are circumstances that the larger the Type I decision error (smaller critical value), the higher the rates of outlier detection, but the lower the rates of outlier identification. For that case, the larger the Type I Error, the larger the ratio between MIB and MDB. We also highlight that an outlier becomes identifiable when the contribution of the measures to the wrong exclusion rate decline simultaneously. In that case, we verify that the effect of the correlation between the outlier statistics on the wrong exclusion rates becomes insignificant from a certain outlier magnitude, which increases the probability of identification.

In this work we have critically reviewed the processes in high-temperature sublimation growth of graphene in Ar atmosphere using enclosed graphite crucible. Special focus is put on buffer layer formation and free charge carrier properties of monolayer graphene and quasi-freestanding monolayer garphene on 4H-SiC. We show that by introducing Ar at different temperatures, TAr one can shift to higher temperatures the formation of the buffer layer for both n-type and semi-insulating substrates. A scenario explaining the observed suppresed formation of buffer layer at higher TAr is proposed and discussed. Increased TAr is also shown to reduce the sp3 hybridization content and defect densities in the buffer layer on n-type conductive substrates. Growth on semi-insulating substrates results in ordered buffer layer with significantly improved structural properties, for which TAr plays only a minor role. The free charge density and mobility parameters of monolayer graphene and quasi-freestanding monolayer graphene with different TAr and different environmental treatment conditions are determined by contactless terahertz optical Hall effect. An efficient annealing of donors on and near the SiC surface takes place in intrinsic monolayer graphene grown at 2000∘C, and which is found to be independent of TAr. Higher TAr leads to higher free charge carrier mobility parameters in both intrinsically n-type and ambient p-type doped monolayer graphene. TAr is also found to have a profound effect on the free hole parameters of quasi-freestanding monolayer graphene. These findings are discussed in view of interface and buffer layer properties in order to construct a comprehensive picture of high-temperature sublimation growth and provide guidance for growth parameters optimization depending on the targeted graphene application.

Rapid developments in the field of underwater photogrammetry have given scientists1the ability to produce accurate 3-dimensional (3D) models which are now increasingly used in the representation and study of local areas of interest. This paper addresses the lack of systematic analysis of 3D reconstruction and navigation fusion strategies, as well as associated error evaluation of models produced at larger scales in GPS-denied environments using a monocular camera (often in deep-sea scenarios). Based on our prior work on automatic scale estimation of Structure from Motion (SfM)-based 3D models using laser scalers, an automatic scale accuracy framework is presented. The confidence level for each of the scale error estimates is independently assessed through the propagation of the uncertainties associated with image features and laser spot detections using a Monte Carlo simulation. The number of iterations used in the simulation was validated through the analysis of the final estimate behaviour. To facilitate the detection and uncertainty estimation of even greatly attenuated laser beams, an automatic laser spot detection method, mitigating the effects of scene texture, was developed, with the main novelty of estimating the uncertainties based on the recovered characteristic shapes of laser spots with radially decreasing1 intensities. The effects of four different reconstruction strategies resulting from the combinations of Incremental/GlobalSfM, and thea priori/a posterioriuse of navigation data were analyzed using two distinct survey scenarios captured during the SUBSAINTES 2017 cruise (doi: 10.17600/17001000). The study demonstrates that surveys with multiple overlaps of non-sequential images result in a nearly identical solution regardless of the strategy (SfM or navigation fusion), while surveys with weakly connected sequentially acquired images are prone to produce broad-scale deformation (doming effect) when navigation is not included in the optimization. Thus the scenarios with complex survey patterns substantially benefit from using multi-objective BA navigation fusion. In all cases, the errors in the models are inferior to 5%, with errors often being around 1%. The effects of combining data from multiple surveys were also evaluated. The introduction of additional vectors in the optimization of multi-survey problems successfully accounted for offset changes present in the underwater USBL-based navigation data and thus minimize the effect of contradicting navigation priors. Our results also illustrate the importance of collecting a multitude of evaluation data at different locations and moments during the survey.

A quasi-two-dimensional (quasi-2D) modelling approach is introduced to mimic transverse mixing of an inflow into a river from one of its banks, either an industrial outfall or a tributary. The concentrations of determinands in the inflow vary greatly from those in the river, leading to very long mixing lengths in the river downstream of the inflow location. Ideally, a two-dimensional (2D) model would be used on a small scale to capture the mixing of the two flow streams. However, for large-scale applications of several hundreds of kilometres of river length, such an approach demands too many computational resources and too much computational time, especially if the application will at some point require ensemble input from climate-change scenario data. However, a one-dimensional (1D) model with variables varying in the longitudinal flow direction but averaged across the cross-sections is too simple of an approach to capture the lateral mixing between different flow streams within the river. Hence, a quasi-2D method is proposed in which a simplified 1D solver is still applied but the discretisation of the model setup can be carried out in such a way as to enable a 2D representation of the model domain. The quasi-2D model setup also allows secondary channels and side lakes in floodplains to be incorporated into the discretisation. To show proof-of-concept, the approach has been tested on a stretch of the lower Athabasca River in Canada flowing through the oil sands region between Fort McMurray and Fort MacKay. A dye tracer and suspended sediments are the constituents modelled in this test case.

We study in this paper the time evolution of stock markets using a statistical physics approach. We consider an ensemble of agents who sell or buy a good according to several factors acting on them: the majority of the neighbors, the market ambiance, the variation of the price and some specific measure applied at a given time. Each agent is represented by a spin having a number of discrete states q or continuous states, describing the tendency of the agent for buying or selling. The market ambiance is represented by a parameter T which plays the role of the temperature in physics: low T corresponds to a calm market, high T to a turbulent one. We show that there is a critical value of T, say T_c, where strong fluctuations between individual states lead to a disordered situation in which there is no majority: the numbers of sellers and buyers are equal, namely the market clearing. The specific measure, by the government or by economic organisms, is parameterized by $H$ applied on the market at the time t₁ and removed at the time t₂. We have used Monte Carlo simulations to study the time evolution of the price as functions of those parameters. In particular we show that the price strongly fluctuates near T_c and there exists a critical value H_c above which the boosting effect remains after H is removed. Our model replicates the stylized facts in finance (time-independent price variation), volatility clustering (time-dependent dynamics) and persistent effect of a temporary shock. The second party of the paper deals with the price variation using a time-dependent mean-field theory. By supposing that the sellers and the buyers belong to two distinct communities with their characteristics different in both intra-group and inter-group interactions, we find the price oscillation with time. Results are shown and discussed.

In this work, the recently proposed cracking elements method (CEM) is used for simulating the damaging processes of structures with initial imperfections. CEM is built in the framework of conventional FEM which is formally like a special type of finite element. The disconnected piecewise cracks are used for representing crack paths. Taking the advantages of CEM that both the initiations and propagations of cracks can be naturally captured, we numerically study the uni-axial compression tests of specimens with multiple joints and fissures, where the cracks may propagate from the tips, or from some other unexpected positions. Though uni-axial compression tests are considered, mainly tensile damage criteria are used in the numerical model. On one hand, the results demonstrate the robustness and effectiveness of the CEM while on the other hand, some drawbacks of the present model are demonstrated, showing the future work.

The wave packet consisting of two harmonic plane waves with the same frequencies, but with different wave vectors is considered. The dispersion relation of a packet is structurally similar to the dispersion relation of a relativistic particle with a nonzero rest mass. The possibility of controlling the group velocity of a quasi-monochromatic wave packet by varying the angle between the wave vectors of its constituent waves is discussed.

The aim of this paper is to discuss the relations between various notions of sequential completeness and the corresponding notions of completeness by nets or by filters in the setting of quasi-metric spaces. We propose a new definition of right $K$-Cauchy net in a quasi-metric space for which the corresponding completeness is equivalent to the sequential completeness. In this way we complete some results of R.~A. Stoltenberg, Proc. London Math. Soc. \textbf{17} (1967), 226--240, and V.~Gregori and J.~Ferrer, Proc. Lond. Math. Soc., III Ser., \textbf{49} (1984), 36. A discussion on nets defined over ordered or pre-ordered directed sets is also included.

This work analyzes the severity and risk associated with Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) message drop out in Detect and Avoid (DAA) function of Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS). Performance assessment of the Universal Access Transceiver (UAT) ADS-B message implies that in some cases ADS-B fails to update within a specified update interval, which is referred to as drop out in this work. ADS-B is a fundamental surveillance sensor for both class 1 and class 2 DAA systems. Message loss or drop out has been found as one of the common limitations of the ADS-B system. The key feature of this study is incorporating the update rate of real ADS-B data transmitted from the manned aircraft. The data were received from the Grand Forks International Airport, North Dakota. Monte Carlo method has been adopted to resolve encounter scenarios in the presence of drop out. The change in the alert triggered by the UAS DAA in the presence of ADS-B drop out has been investigated. Furthermore, the risk matrices are created to quantify the associated risk with drop out affected alerts. Simulation results depict that both the duration of drop out and DAA look-ahead time affect the alert-triggering function of UAS. With a small look- ahead window and longer duration of drop out, the number of warning alerts increases. Also, alerts are affected more during an overtaking encounter than that of a head-to-head encounter. A system-level analysis is also carried out to recognize the potential reasons behind the ADS-B drop out.

Solidification microstructure is formed under high cooling rates and temperature gradients in powder-based additive manufacturing. In this study, a non-equilibrium multi-phase field method (MPFM), which was based on a finite interface dissipation model proposed by Steinbach et. al., coupled with a CALPHAD database was developed for a multicomponent Ni alloy. A qua-si-equilibrium MPFM was also developed for comparison. Two-dimensional equiaxed micro-structural evolution for the Ni (Bal.)–Al–Co–Cr–Mo–Ta–Ti–W–C alloy was performed at various cooling rates. The temperature–γ fraction profiles obtained under 10^5 K/s using non- and qua-si-equilibrium MPFMs were in good agreement with each other. Over 10^6 K/s, the differences between non- and quasi-equilibrium methods grew as the cooling rate increased. The non-equilibrium solidification was strengthened over a cooling rate of 10^6 K/s. Colum-nar-solidification microstructural evolution was performed under cooling rates from 5×10^5 K/s to 1×10^7 K/s at various temperature gradient values under the constant interface velocity (0.1 m/s). The results showed that as the cooling rate increased, the cell space decreased in both methods, and the non-equilibrium MPFM agreed well with experimental measurements. Our results show that the non-equilibrium MPFM can simulate solidification microstructure in powder bed fusion additive manufacturing.

The practice of spatial econometrics revolves around a weighting matrix, which is often supplied by the user on previous knowledge. This is the so called $\mathbf{W}$ issue. Probably, the aprioristic approach is not the best solution although, nowadays, there few alternatives for the user. Our contribution focuses on the problem of selecting a $\mathbf{W}$ matrix from among a finite set of matrices, all of them considerer appropriate for the case. We develop a new and simple method based on the Entropy corresponding to the distribution of probability estimated for the data. Other alternatives, which are common in current applied work, are also reviewed. The paper includes a large Monte Carlo to calibrate the effectiveness of our approach compared to the others. A well-known case study is also included.

Sleep deficiency impacts the quality of life and may have serious health consequences in the long run. Questionnaire-based subjective assessment of sleep deficiency has many limitations. On the other hand, objective assessment of sleep deficiency is challenging. In this study, we propose a polysomnography-based mathematical model for computing baseline sleep deficiency severity score and then investigated the estimation of sleep deficiency severity using features available only from wearable sensor data including heart rate variability and single-channel electroen-cephalography for a dataset of 500 subjects. We used Monte-Carlo Feature Selection (MCFS) and inter-dependency discovery for selecting the best features and removing multi-collinearity. For developing the Regression model we investigated both the frequentist and the Bayesian ap-proaches. An Artificial Neural Network achieved the best performance of RMSE = 5.47 and an R-squared value of 0.67 for sleep deficiency severity estimation. The developed method is com-parable to conventional methods of Functional Outcome of Sleep Questionnaire and Epworth Sleepiness Scale for assessing the impact of sleep apnea on sleep deficiency. Moreover, the results pave the way for reliable and interpretable sleep deficiency severity estimation using a wearable device in Smart Health.

The influence of the grain structure on the tensile deformation strength is studied for precipitation-strengthened Cu-0.2%Zr at 673 K. Subgrains and grains are formed by ECAP and annealing. The fraction of high-angle boundaries increases with prestrain. Subgrains and grains coarsen during deformation. This leads to softening in the quasi-stationary state. The initial quasi-stationary state of severely predeformed, ultrafine-grained material exhibits relatively high rate-sensitivity at relatively high stresses. This is interpreted as result of the stress dependences of the quasi-stationary subgrain size and the volume fraction of subgrain-free grains.

Induction heating (IH) technology is widely recognized and utilized in residential applications due to its high efficiency and safe operating characteristics. Resonant inverter circuits are widely used in IH systems because of their high efficiency and ability to perform soft-switching. Among the various resonant inverters used in IH systems, the single-switch quasi-resonant (SSQR) inverter topology is typically preferred for low-cost and low-output-power applications. Despite its cost advantage, the SSQR topology has a relatively narrow soft-switching range, which can be unstable depending on the electrical parameters of the load and the resonant converter circuit. Accurately determining the capacitance value of the resonant capacitor and the inductance value of the induction coil, which are the key circuit elements of the SSQR induction cooker, is crucial for designing a reliable, efficient, and durable cooking system. In other words, there exists a critical relationship between the resonant converter circuit parameters, load characteristics, and safe operating conditions. Additionally, when considering closed-loop control methods used for power control and safety, selecting appropriate resonant circuit elements becomes vital in ensuring both reliable and efficient operation. This paper focuses on a novel and simplified design method for the SSQR inverter utilized in household appliances. The proposed method and its advantages in terms of the safe operating area of the switch are theoretically investigated and verified through simulations and prototype circuits.

Mesoscale eddies, the weather system of the oceans, although being on the scales of O(20-100km), have a disproportionate role in shaping the mean jets such as the separated Gulf Stream in the North Atlantic Ocean, which is on the scale of O(1000km) in the along-jet direction. With the increase in computational power, we are now able to partially resolve the eddies in basin-scale and global ocean simulations, a model resolution often referred to as mesoscale permitting. It is well known, however, that due to grid-scale numerical viscosity, mesoscale permitting simulations have less energetic eddies and consequently weaker eddy feedback onto the mean flow. In this study, we run a quasi-geostrophic model at mesoscale resolving resolution in a double gyre configuration and formulate a deterministic parametrization for the eddy rectification term of potential vorticity (PV), namely, the eddy PV flux divergence. We have moderate success in reproducing the spatial patterns and magnitude of eddy kinetic and potential energy diagnosed from the model. One novel point about our approach is that we account for non-local eddy feedbacks onto the mean flow by solving the eddy PV equation prognostically in addition to the mean flow. In return, we are able to parametrize the variability in total (mean+eddy) PV at each time step instead of solely the mean PV. A closure for the total PV is beneficial as we are able to account for both the mean state and extreme events.

The planning and decision-making for a distributed energy supply concept in complex actor structures like in districts calls for the approach to be highly structured. Here, a strategy with strong use of energetic simulations is developed, the core elements are presented and research gaps are identified. The exemplary implementation is shown using the case study of a new district on the former Oldenburg airbase in northwestern Germany. The process is divided into four consecutive phases, which are carried out with different stakeholder participation and use of different simulation tools. Based on a common objective, a superstructure of the applicable technologies is developed. Detailed planning is then carried out with the help of a multi-objective optimal sizing algorithm and Monte Carlo based risk assessment. The process ends with the operating phase, which is to guarantee a further optimal and dynamic mode of operation. The main objective of this publication is present the core elements of the planning processes and decision-making framework based on the case study and to find and identify research gaps that will have to be addressed in the future.

In the present work we revise and extend the Characteristic Crystallographic Element (CCE) norm, an algorithm used to simultaneously detect radial and orientational similarity of computer-generated structures with respect to specific reference crystals and local symmetries. Based on the identification of point group symmetry elements, the CCE descriptor is able to gauge local structure with high precision and finely distinguish between competing morphologies. As test cases we use computer-generated monomeric and polymer systems of spherical particles interacting with the hard-sphere and square-well attractive potentials. We demonstrate that the CCE norm is able to detect and differentiate, between others, among: hexagonal close packed (HCP), face centered cubic (FCC), hexagonal (HEX) and body centered cubic (BCC) crystals as well as non-crystallographic fivefold (FIV) local symmetry in bulk 3-D systems; triangular (TRI), square (SQU) and honeycomb (HON) crystals, as well as pentagonal (PEN) local symmetry in thin films of one-layer thickness (2-D systems). The descriptor is general and can be applied to identify the symmetry elements of any point group for arbitrary atomic or particulate system in two or three dimensions, in the bulk or under confinement.

We numerically study surface models defined on hexagonal disks with a free boundary. 2D surface models for planer surfaces have recently attracted interest due to the engineering applications of functional materials such as graphene and its composite with polymers. These 2D composite meta-materials are strongly influenced by external stimuli such as thermal fluctuations if they are sufficiently thin. For this reason, it is very interesting to study the shape stability/instability of thin 2D materials against thermal fluctuations. In this paper, we study three types of surface models including Landau-Ginzburg (LG) and Helfirch-Polyakov models defined on triangulated hexagonal disks using the parallel tempering Monte Carlo simulation technique. We find that the planer surfaces undergo a first-order transition between the smooth and crumpled phases in the LG model and continuous transitions in the other two models. The first-order transition is relatively weaker compared to the transition on spherical surfaces already reported. The continuous nature of the transition is consistent with the reported results, although the transitions are stronger than that of the reported ones.

This paper deals with a non-standard finite difference scheme defined on a quasi-uniform mesh for approximate solutions of the Magneto-Hydro Dynamics (MHD) boundary layer flow of an incompressible fluid past a flat plate for a wide range of the magnetic parameter. We show how to improve the obtained numerical results via a mesh refinement and a Richardson extrapolation. The obtained numerical results are favourably compared with those available in the literature.

Although nanotechnology is a new and rapidly growing area of science, the impact of nanomaterials on living organisms is unknown in many aspects. In this regard it is extremely important to perform toxicological tests, but complete characterization of all varying preparations is extremely laborious. The computational technique called quantitative structure-activity relationship, or QSAR, allows reducing the cost of time- and resource-consuming nanotoxicity tests. In this review, (Q)SAR cytotoxicity studies of the past decade are systematically considered. We regard here five classes of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs): metal oxides, metal-containing nanoparticles, multi-walled carbon nanotubes, fullerenes, and silica nanoparticles. Some studies reveal that QSAR models are better than classification SAR models, while other reports conclude that SAR is more precise than QSAR. The quasi-QSAR method appears to be the most promising tool, as it allows accurately taking experimental conditions into account. However, experimental artifacts are a major concern in this case

In this review, we trace the evolution of the quantum spin-wave theory treating non-collinear spin configurations. Non-collinear spin configurations are consequences of the frustration created by competing interactions. They include simple chiral magnets due to competing nearest-neighbor (NN) and next-NN interactions and systems with geometry frustration such as the triangular antiferromagnet and the Kagomé lattice. We review here spin-wave results of such systems and also systems with the Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction. Accent is put on these non-collinear ground states which have to be calculated before applying any spin-wave theory to determine the spectrum of the elementary excitations from the ground states. We mostly show results from a self-consistent Green’function theory to calculate the spin-wave spectrum and the layer magnetizations at finite T in two and three dimensions as well as in thin films with surface effects. Some new unpublished results are also included. Analytical details and the validity of the method are shown and discussed.

Breaching and liquefaction are two types of coastal flow slides proposed in the literature. While their final results are similar, liquefaction and breaching failure are two different processes, with breaching failure characterized by a different progression and sand movement mechanisms. In densely packed sand, breaching causes delayed sand grain discharge and negative excess pore pressures. Liquefaction, when a mass of soil suddenly behaves like a liquid, flow out over overly gentle slopes. Flow slides typically go unnoticed until the slope fails above ground because they start below the water. Without modern technology, diving equipment, risk assessment, and probabilistic and sensitivity assessments, flow slides inherently challenging. The authors developed a new sensitivity index to detect the susceptibility of coastal flow slides. It was established a sophisticated hybrid model that accommodates flow slides in sync with unpredictable variables employed in this new sensitivity index. Innovative hybrid model has three distinctive models. The Hybrid Hydrodynamic Model addresses wave, wind, current, climate change, and sediment transfer. The Monte Carlo Simulation analyses sensitivity, and the Bayesian Network calculates joint probability of coastal flow slide parameters of this new index that includes environmental characteristics, including climate change. With the assistance of these three models, researchers aim at a) presenting a methodology for coupling coastal flow slide projections with outcomes; b) distinguishing two flow slides; c) examining variables influencing flow slides. The use of such a hybrid model and risk index offers a robust and computationally efficient approach to evaluating the critical angle slope for breaching failure.

This article presents a comprehensive study on enhancing grid resilience through advanced forecasting and optimization techniques in the context of power outages. Power outages pose significant challenges to modern societies, affecting various sectors such as industries, households, and critical infrastructures. The research combines statistical analysis, machine learning algorithms, and optimization methods to address this issue to develop a holistic approach for predicting and mitigating power outage events. The proposed methodology involves the use of Monte Carlo simulations in MATLAB for future outage prediction, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks for forecasting solar irradiance and load profiles, and a hybrid LSTM-Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) model to improve accuracy. Furthermore, the role of Battery State of Charge (SoC) in enhancing system resilience is explored. The study also assesses the techno-economic advantages of a grid-tied microgrid integrated with solar panels and batteries over conventional grid systems. The results highlight the potential of the proposed approach in strengthening grid resilience, reducing downtime, and fostering sustainable energy utilization.

Flexible implementations of Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), combined with domain specific knowledge and hybridization with other search algorithms, can be a very powerful for the solution of problems in complex planning. We introduce mctreesearch4j, a standard MCTS implementation written as a standard JVM library following key design principles of object oriented programming. We define key class abstractions allowing the MCTS library to flexibly adapt to any well defined Markov Decision Process or turn-based adversarial game. Furthermore, our library is designed to be modular and extensible, utilizing class inheritance and generic typing to standardize custom algorithm definitions. We demon- strate that the design of the MCTS implementation provides ease of adaptation for unique heuristics and customization across varying Markov Decision Process (MDP) domains. In addition, the implementation is reasonably performant and accurate for standard MDP’s. In addition, via the implementation of mctreesearch4j, the nuances of different types of MCTS algorithms are discussed.

Statistical modeling of lifetime data plays an essential role in a wide range of practical fields, such as health and engineering. There have been a lot of studies done to develop statistical models that can better describe health data than traditional models. For the first time, we pioneer a novel family of continuous probability distributions called the generalized odd beta prime generalized (GOBP-G) family of distributions. The cumulative distribution and probability density functions of the new family are presented. A new generalization of the Weibull distribution called "generalized odd beta prime-Weibull" (GOBPW) is proposed using the pioneered GOBP-G family. The mixture representations of the new distribution are defined and derived. Some formal statistical properties of the GOBPW distribution, such as the moments, moment generating function, incomplete moments, information generating function, entropies, stress-strength function, quantile function, and order statistics, are derived. The estimation of the parameters of the proposed distribution is evaluated using the maximum likelihood estimation approach. Different cancer disease data sets, such as the bladder, head and neck, acute bone, and blood cancers, are used to illustrate the applicability and usefulness of the new model and were compared using several statistical accuracy measures with that of well-established extended Weibull distributions, which are the beta modified Weibull distribution, Kumaraswamy modified Weibull distribution, gamma generalized modified Weibull distribution, gamma log-logistic Weibull distribution, and beta log-logistic Weibull distribution. The results show that the proposed model gives better results than the competitive models. This study could guide the relevant stakeholders in choosing a suitable statistical model for the health data instead of relying on traditional models to enhance decision-making.

In this study, we present more than 8 years of observations of the quasi-16-day wave (Q16DW) in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) wind at middle latitudes observed by the Mengcheng (33.4°N, 116.5°E) meteor radar. The long-term variation in amplitudes calculated from the data between April 2014 and December 2022 shows enhanced wave activity during winter and early spring (near equinox) and suppressed wave activity during the summer. The Q16DWs are relatively weak in the meridional wind. During the winter months, the Q16DWs in the zonal component exhibit a burst below 85 km, and their amplitudes reach up to 10 m/s. In the early spring, the Q16DWs strengthen above 90 km with amplitudes in excess of 12 m/s. The phase differences between the zonal and meridional components of the Q16DW are, on average, slightly smaller than 90°, suggesting the existence of orthogonal relationships between them. During strong bursts, the periods of the Q16DW in winter range between 15 and 18 d, whereas in winter, the periods tend to be more diffuse. The wintertime Q16DW is amplified, on average, when the zonal wind shear peaks, suggesting that barotropic instability may be one source of Q16DW. Q16DW amplitudes exhibit considerable interannual variability; however, a relationship between the 11-year solar cycle and the Q16DW is not found.

Previous studies generally reckon that the full converter-base wind power generation (FCWG) is a ’decoupled’ power source from the grid, which hardly participates in electromechanical oscillations. However, it is found recently that strong interaction could be induced which might incur severe resonance incidents in electromechanical dynamic timescale. In this paper, the participation of FCWG in electromechanical dynamics is extensively investigated, and particularly, an unusual transition of electromechanical oscillation mode (EOM) is uncovered for the first time. The detailed mathematical models of open-loop and closed-loop power systems are firstly established, and modal analysis is employed to quantify the FCWG participation in electromechanical dynamics, with two new mode identification criteria, i.e., FCWG dynamics correlation ratio (FDCR) and quasi-electromechanical loop correlation ratio (QELCR). On this basis, the impact of different wind penetration levels and controller parameter settings on the participation of FCWG is investigated. It is revealed that if an FOM has a similar oscillation frequency to the system EOMs, there is a high possibility to induce strong interactions between FCWG dynamics and system electromechanical dynamics of the external power systems. In this circumstance, an interesting phenomenon may occur that an EOM may be dominated by FCWG dynamics, and hence is transformed into a quasi-EOM, which actively involves the participation of FCWG quasi-electromechanical state variables.

In this study, we present the concept of interval-valued fuzzy soft point and then introduce the notions of neighborhood and quasi-neighbourhood of it in interval-valued fuzzy soft topological spaces. Separation axioms in interval-valued fuzzy soft topology, so-called $q$-$T_{i}$ for $ i=0,1,2,3,4 ,$ is introduced and some of its basic properties are also studied.

Shale gas and coalbed methane are energy sources that partly or even mainly consist of methane stored in an adsorbed state in the pores of the organic-rich rock and coal seams. In this study, the graphene nanoslit model is employed to model the nanometer slit pores in shale and coal. The Grand Canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) and Molecular Dynamics (MD) modelling methods are used to investigate the mechanisms of adsorption and displacement of methane in the slit pore. It was found that the CVFF forcefield resulted in the largest adsorption amount, while the PCFF forcefield resulted in the least. The COMPASS and COMPASS II force fields led to similar results. As the width of the slit pore increases, the adsorption amount of gas molecules increases, and the number density profile of adsorbed methane molecules alters from a single adsorption layer to multi-adsorption layers. The minimum slit pore width at which methane molecules can penetrate the slit pore was found to be 0.7 nm. Moreover, it is demonstrated that by lowering the temperature, the adsorption rate of the methane increases since the adsorption is an exothermic process. Enhancing methane recovery was investigated by the injection of gases such as CO2 and N2 to displace the adsorbed methane. The comparison of adsorption isotherms of gas molecules provided the following order in terms of the amount of adsorption: CO2&gt;CH4&gt;N2.

The purpose of this work is to study quasi-stationary wave structure in the mid-latitude stratosphere and mesosphere (40–50°N) and its role in the formation of the annual ozone cycle. Geopotential height and ozone from Aura MLS data are used and winter climatology for January–February 2011–2020 is considered. More closely examined is the 10-degree longitude segment centered on Longfengshan Brewer station, China, and located in the region of the Aleutian Low influence associated with the quasi-stationary zonal maximum of total ozone. Annual and semi-annual oscillations in ozone were compared using units of ozone volume mixing ratio and concentration, as well as changes in ozone peak altitude and in time series of ozone at individual pressure levels between 316 hPa (9 km) and 0.001 hPa (96 km). The ozone maximum in the vertical profile is higher in volume mixing ratio (VMR) values than in concentration by about 15 km (5 km) in the stratosphere (mesosphere), in consistency with some previous studies. We found that the properties of the annual cycle are better resolved in the altitude range of the main ozone maximum: middle–upper stratosphere in VMR and lower stratosphere in concentration. Both approaches reveal SAO/AO-related changes in the of ozone peak altitudes in a range of 4–6 km during the year. In the lower-stratospheric ozone of the Longfengshan domain, an earlier development of the annual cycle takes place with a maximum in February and a minimum in August compared to spring and autumn, respectively, in zonal means. This is presumably due to the higher rate of dynamical ozone accumulation in the region of the quasi-stationary zonal ozone maximum. The “no-annual-cycle” transition layers are found in the stratosphere and mesosphere. These layers with undisturbed ozone volume mixing ratio throughout the year are of interest for more detailed future study.

Gradient based methods are popularly used in training neural networks and can be broadly categorized into first and second order methods. Second order methods have shown to have better convergence compared to first order methods, especially in solving highly nonlinear problems. The BFGS quasi-Newton method is the most commonly studied second order method for neural network training. Recent methods have shown to speed up the convergence of the BFGS method using the Nesterov’s acclerated gradient and momentum terms. The SR1 quasi-Newton method though less commonly used in training neural networks, are known to have interesting properties and provide good Hessian approximations when used with a trust-region approach. Thus, this paper aims to investigate accelerating the Symmetric Rank-1 (SR1) quasi-Newton method with the Nesterov’s gradient for training neural networks and briefly discuss its convergence. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated on a function approximation and image classification problem.

The aim of this study is to obtain the Bayes estimators and the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) for the unknown parameters of the Rayleigh Weibull (RW) distribution based on progres-sive type-II censored samples. The approximate Bayes estimators are calculated using the idea of Lindley and Tierney-Kadane's approximation method under the squared-error loss function when the Bayes estimators are not handed in explicit forms. In this study, the approximate Bayes esti-mates are compared with the maximum likelihood estimates in the aspect of the estimated risks (ERs) using Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the coverage probabilities of the parametric bootstrap estimates are calculated. Real lifetime data sets belonging to the cancer types as bladder cancer, head and neck cancer, and leukemia are used to illustrate the emprical results belonging to the approximate Bayes estimates, the maximum likelihood estimates, and the parametric bootstrap intervals.

Tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) is a pathogenic, enveloped, positive-stranded RNA virus in the family Flaviviridae. Structural studies of flavivirus virions have primarily focused on mosquito-borne species with only one cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) structure of a tick-borne species published. Here, we present a 3.3 Å cryo-EM structure of the TBEV virion of the Kuutsalo-14 isolate, confirming the overall organisation of the virus. We observe conformational switching of the peripheral and transmembrane helices of M protein, which can explain the quasi-equivalent packing of the viral proteins and highlights their importance in stabilizing the membrane protein arrangement in the virion. The residues responsible for the M protein inter-actions are highly conserved in TBEV but not in the structurally studied Hypr strain, nor in mosquito-borne flaviviruses. These interactions may compensate for the lower number of hydrogen bonds between E proteins in TBEV compared to the mosquito-borne flaviviruses. The structure reveals two lipids bound in the E protein, which are important for virus assembly. The lipid pockets are comparable to those recently described in mosquito-borne Zika, Spondweni, Dengue, and Usutu viruses. Our results thus advance the understanding of tick-borne flavivirus architecture and virion-stabilising interactions.

The tobacco epidemic is one of the leading public health threats the world has ever faced and public health policy that seeks to limit the problem may not only have to target the price of tobacco but also the initiation stage in a smoker’s life – the adolescent stage. This research contributes to the health economics literature by using a Bayesian hierarchical logistic model, estimated using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) methods to empirically identify what drives the intentions to quit smoking among adolescent smokers in Zambia. Results suggest that among the junior secondary school-going adolescent smokers in Zambia, about 63% have plans to quit smoking. We find socio-demographic characteristics and several tobacco-smoking-related factors as the main drivers of adolescent smokers’ plans to quit smoking. Most importantly, we provide insights that could be useful to help adolescent smokers realize their quitting plans.

Demographic change is leading to the aging of German society. As long as the baby boom co-horts are still of working age, the working population will also age - and decline as soon as this baby boom generation gradually reaches retirement age. At the same time, there has been a trend towards increasing absenteeism (times of inability to work) in companies since the zero years, with the number of days of absence increasing with age. We present a novel stochastic forecast approach that combines population forecasting with forecasts of labor force participation trends, considering epidemiological aspects. For this, we combine a stochastic Monte Carlo-based cohort-component forecast of the population with projections of labor force participation rates and morbidity rates. This article examines the purely demographic effect on the economic costs associated with such absenteeism due to the inability to work. Under expected future employment patterns and constant morbidity patterns, absenteeism is expected by close to 5 percent by 2050 relative to 2020, associated with increasing economic costs of almost 3 percent. Our results illustrate how strongly the pronounced baby boom/ baby bust phenomenon determines demographic development in Germany in the midterm.

We outline and test a new methodology for genuine simulation of stochastic processes with any dependence and any marginal distribution. We reproduce time dependence with a generalized, time symmetric or asymmetric, moving-average scheme. This implements linear filtering of non-Gaussian white noise, with the weights of the filter determined by analytical equations in terms of the autocovariance of the process. We approximate the marginal distribution of the process, irrespective of its type, using a number of its cumulants, which in turn determine the cumulants of white noise in a manner that can readily support the generation of random numbers from that approximation, so that it be applicable for stochastic simulation. The simulation method is genuine as it uses the process of interest directly without any transformation (e.g. normalization). We illustrate the method in a number of synthetic and real-world applications with either persistence or antipersistence, and with non-Gaussian marginal distributions that are bounded, thus making the problem more demanding. These include distributions bounded from both sides, such as uniform, and bounded form below, such as exponential and Pareto, possibly having a discontinuity at the origin (intermittence). All examples studied show the satisfactory performance of the method.

In this paper, a fuzzy logic-based energy management system and multi-port quasi-z-source converter are proposed that utilizes hybrid renewable energy sources. The system ensures that each energy source module can be used individually by employing fuzzy logic to define power modes. This approach also helps prevent switching losses resulting from extra switching of the source modules. Also, the proposed energy management does not have a mathematical model, so applicability is simple and it is suitable for different multiple input topologies. The Mamdani fuzzy inference system can be designed to capture the nonlinear behavior of the system because of the linguistic rules. Moreover, by adopting the quasi-z-source network to the end of the multi-port converter, the switching losses of the multi-port modules have been significantly reduced. The simulation results are obtained using MATLAB Simulink, and the experimental results are obtained by connecting the circuit to MATLAB Simulink via an Arduino Due.

This work addresses the role of charge regulation (CR) and the associated fluctuations in the conformational and mechanical properties of weak polyelectrolytes. Due to CR, changes in the pH-value modifies the average macromolecular charge and conformational equilibria. A second effect is that, for a given average charge per site, fluctuations can alter the intensity of the interactions by means of correlation between binding sites. We investigate both effects by means of Monte Carlo simulations at constant pH-value, so that the charge is a fluctuating quantity. Once the average charge per site is available, we turn off the fluctuations by assigning the same average charge to every site. A constant charge MC simulation is then performed. We make use of a model which accounts for the main fundamental aspects of a linear flexible polyelectrolyte i.e. proton binding, angle internal rotation, bond stretching and bending. Steric excluded volume and differentiated treatment for short-range and long-range interactions are also included in the model. It can be regarded as a kind of "minimal'' model in the sense that contains a minimum number of parameters but still preserving the atomistic detail. It is shown that, if fluctuations are activated, gauche state bond probabilities increase, and the persistence length decreases, so that the polymer becomes more folded. Macromolecular stretching is also analyzed in presence of CR (the charge depends on the applied force) and without CR (the charge is fixed to the value at zero force). The analysis of the low force scaling behavior concludes that Pincus exponent becomes pH-dependent. Both with and without CR, a transition from 1/2 at high pH-values (phantom chain) to 3/5 to low pH-values (Pincus regime), is observed. Finally, the intermediate force stretching regime is investigated. It is found that CR induces a moderate influence in the force-extension curves and persistence length (which in this force regime becomes force-dependent). It is thus concluded that the effect of CR on the stretching curves is mainly due to changes in the average charge at zero force. It is also found that, for the cases studied, the effect of steric excluded volume is almost irrelevant compared to electrostatic interactions.

Effective household and individual disaster preparedness can minimize physical harm and property damage during catastrophic events. To assess the risk and vulnerability of affected areas, it is crucial for relief agencies to understand the level of public preparedness. Traditionally, government agencies have employed nationwide random telephone surveys to gauge the public’s attitudes and actions towards disaster preparedness. However, these surveys may lack generalizability in certain affected locations due to low response rates or areas not covered by the survey. To address this issue and enhance the comprehensiveness of disaster preparedness assessments, we develop a framework that seamlessly integrates machine learning and simulation. Our approach leverages machine learning algorithms to establish relationships between public attitudes towards disaster preparedness and demographic characteristics. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we generate datasets that incorporate demographic information of the affected location based on government-provided demographic distribution data. The generated dataset is then input into the machine learning model to predict the disaster preparedness attitudes of the affected population. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework by applying it to Miami-Dade County, where it accurately predicts the level of disaster preparedness. With this innovative approach, relief agencies can have a clearer and more comprehensive understanding of public disaster preparedness.

The local and global order in dense packings of linear, semi-flexible polymers of tangent hard spheres are studied by employing extensive Monte Carlo simulations at increasing volume fractions. Chain stiffness is controlled by a tunable harmonic potential for the bending angle whose intensity dictates the rigidity of the polymer backbone as a function of the bending constant and equilibrium angle. The studied angles range from acute to obtuse ones, reaching the limit of rod-like polymers. We analyze how packing density and chain stiffness affect the ability of chains to self-organize at the local and global levels. The former corresponds to crystallinity as quantified by the Characteristic Crystallographic Element (CCE) norm descriptor, while the latter is computed through the scalar orientational order parameter. In all cases, we identify the critical volume fraction for the phase transition and gauge the established crystal morphologies, developing a complete phase diagram as a function of packing density and equilibrium bending angle. A plethora of structures is obtained, ranging from random hexagonal closed packed morphologies of mixed character and almost perfect face centered cubic (FCC) and hexagonal close-packed (HCP) crystals at the level of monomers, to nematic mesophases, with prolate and oblate mesogens at the level of chains. For rod-like chains, hysteresis is observed between the establishment of long-range nematic order and crystallization, while for right-angle chains both transitions are synchronized. A comparison is also provided against the analogous packings of monomeric and fully flexible chains of hard spheres.

The direct measurements of the magnetocaloric effect were performed in Heusler Ni44.4Mn36.2Sn14.9Cu4.5 alloy at cryogenic temperatures in magnetic fields up to 10 T. The maximum value of the inverse magnetocaloric effect in a field of 10 T was observed ∆Tad = –2.7 K in the vicinity of the 1st order magnetostructural phase transition at T0 = 117 K. The ab initio and Monte Carlo calculations were performed to discuss the effect Cu doping into Ni-Mn-Sn compound on the ground state structural and magnetic properties. It is shown that with increasing Cu content the martensitic transition temperature decreases and the Curie temperature of austenite slightly increases. In general, calculated transition temperatures, magnetization values are correlated well with the experimental ones.