Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

“Look at Me, I Plan to Quit Smoking”: Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of Adolescent Smokers’ Intention to Quit Smoking

Version 1 : Received: 19 February 2020 / Approved: 21 February 2020 / Online: 21 February 2020 (03:14:01 CET)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Ng’ombe, J.N.; Nedson, N.R.; Tembo, N.F.P. “Look at Me, I Plan to Quit Smoking”: Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of Adolescent Smokers’ Intention to Quit Smoking. Healthcare 2020, 8, 76. Ng’ombe, J.N.; Nedson, N.R.; Tembo, N.F.P. “Look at Me, I Plan to Quit Smoking”: Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of Adolescent Smokers’ Intention to Quit Smoking. Healthcare 2020, 8, 76.

Journal reference: Healthcare 2020, 8, 76
DOI: 10.3390/healthcare8020076

Abstract

The tobacco epidemic is one of the leading public health threats the world has ever faced and public health policy that seeks to limit the problem may not only have to target the price of tobacco but also the initiation stage in a smoker’s life – the adolescent stage. This research contributes to the health economics literature by using a Bayesian hierarchical logistic model, estimated using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) methods to empirically identify what drives the intentions to quit smoking among adolescent smokers in Zambia. Results suggest that among the junior secondary school-going adolescent smokers in Zambia, about 63% have plans to quit smoking. We find socio-demographic characteristics and several tobacco-smoking-related factors as the main drivers of adolescent smokers’ plans to quit smoking. Most importantly, we provide insights that could be useful to help adolescent smokers realize their quitting plans.

Subject Areas

tobacco smoking; intention to quit smoking; Hamiltonian Monte Carlo; Bayesian analysis; Zambia

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