Submitted:
28 December 2020
Posted:
29 December 2020
You are already at the latest version
Preprints on COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2
Abstract
With data for SARS-CoV-2 and with many countries entering the second wave of contagion required the improvement of the forecasting model, structuring its model to forecast the peak of the first and second contagion wave in Brazil. The Model Estimation for SARS-CoV-2 Peak Contagion (MESPC) was structured, capable of estimating the peak of contagion for SARS-CoV-2 in the first and second waves, as the main objective of this work. Using the MESPC model, it was possible to estimate, with a certain reliability degree, the peak of contagion for the first and second waves in Brazil, with one day difference from the real to the forecast. It is possible to use MESPC to forecast the peak of contagion for several regions, provided that the necessary structure and calibration are respected.
Keywords:
Monte Carlo Simulation
; Bayesian statistics
; SARS-CoV-2
; Covid-19
; model estimation
Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.
