The “Crisis of Reproducibility” has received considerable attention both within the scientific community and without. While factors associated with scientific culture and practical practice are most often invoked, I propose that the Crisis of Reproducibility is ultimately a failure of generalization with a fundamental scientific basis in the methods used for biomedical research. The Denominator Problem describes how limitations intrinsic to the two primary approaches of biomedical research, clinical studies and pre-clinical experimental biology, lead to an inability to effectively characterize the full extent of biological heterogeneity, which compromises the task of generalizing acquired knowledge. Drawing on the example of the unifying role of theory in the physical sciences, I propose that multi-scale mathematical and dynamic computational models, when mapped to the modular structure of biological systems, can serve a unifying role as formal representations of what is conserved and similar from one biological context to another. This ability to explicitly describe the generation of heterogeneity from similarity addresses the Denominator Problem and provides a scientific response to the Crisis of Reproducibility.

Micro-pollutants such as 17β-Estradiol (E2) have been detected in different water resources and their negative effects on the environment and organisms have been observed. Aptamers are established as a possible detection tool, but the underlying ligand binding is largely unexplored. In this study, a previously described 35-mer E2-specific aptamer was used to analyse the binding characteristics between E2 and the aptamer with a MD simulation in an aqueous medium. Because there is no 3D structure information available for this aptamer, it was modeled using coarse-grained modeling method. The E2 ligand was positioned inside a potential binding area of the predicted aptamer structure, the complex was used for an 25 ns MD simulation, and the interactions were examined for each time step. We identified E2-specific bases within the interior loop of the aptamer and also demonstrated the influence of frequently underestimated water-mediated hydrogen bonds. The study contributes to the understanding of the behavior of ligands binding with aptamer structure in an aqueous solution. The developed workflow allows generating and examining further appealing ligand-aptamer complexes.

Information regarding the cost of a construction project is available to the investor and project participants in order to determine the subsequent success of a project, given that the information they collect has an impact on the decisions they make. Cost calculations, especially in the initial phase of a project, often generate large errors. This paper presents the new approach based on a combination of the Case Based Reasoning method (CBR) with the originally selected criteria for the description of a construction project (as a result of Pearson correlation coefficient and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient) and Building Information Modeling (BIM) technology. The CBR method fulfils expectations for a simple and fast system supporting the cost estimation process. It does not require any specialist knowledge, so it will be comprehensible to cost estimation practitioners. The BIM-based model gives the opportunity for the calculation of quantity take-offs and enables the use of the information contained in the BIM model in the cost estimation process. In order to prepare the model an appropriate relational database had to be developed. With extensive research, a database of 173 construction projects, including the construction of a sports field, was obtained. There were 14 variables defined originally by authors; however, only 10 (as a result of the correlation analysis) were used for the calculation. Data related to the project were collected in the BIM model. Results estimating the project’s unit price, using the CBR method, were presented and discussed. The Mean Absolute Estimate Error was used to evaluate the model.

This paper presents a demonstration of the feasibility of fabricating micro-cantilever harvesters with extended stress distribution and enhanced bandwidth by exploiting an M-shaped two-degrees-of-freedom design. The measured mechanical response of the fabricated device displays the predicted dual resonance peak behavior with the fundamental peak at the intended frequency. This design has the features of high energy conversion efficiency in a miniaturized environment where the available vibrational energy varies in frequency. It makes such a design suitable for future large volume production of integrated self powered sensors nodes for the Internet-of-Things.

The prevalence of differential equations as a mathematical technique has refined the fields of control theory and constrained optimization due to the newfound ability to accurately model chaotic, unbalanced systems. However, in recent research, systems are increasingly more nonlinear and difficult to model using Differential Equations only. Thus, a newer technique is to use policy iteration and Reinforcement Learning, techniques that center around an action and reward sequence for a controller. Reinforcement Learning (RL) can be applied to control theory problems since a system can robustly apply RL in a dynamic environment such as the cartpole system (an inverted pendulum). This solution successfully avoids use of PID or other dynamics optimization systems, in favor of a more robust, reward-based control mechanism. This paper applies RL and Q-Learning to the classic cartpole problem, while also discussing the mathematical background and differential equations which are used to model the aforementioned system.

A copula is a useful tool for constructing bivariate and/or multivariate distributions. In this article, we consider a new modified class of (Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern) FGM bivariate copula for constructing several dierent bivariate Kumaraswamy type copulas and discuss their structural properties, including dependence structures. It is established that construction of bivariate distributions by this method allows for greater flexibility in the values of Spearman's correlation coefficient rho,  and Kendall's tau . For illustrative purposes, one representative data set is utilized to exhibit the applicability of these proposed bivariate copula models.

There is a continuous growth of heat pump installations in residential buildings in Germany. The heat pumps were not only used for space heating and domestic hot water consumption but also to offer flexibility to the grid. the high coefficient of performance and the low cost of heat storages made the heat pumps an optimal candidate for the power to heat applications. Thus, several questions are raised about the optimal integration and control of the heat pump system with buffer storages to maximize its operation efficiency and minimize the operation costs. In this paper, an experimental investigation is performed to study the performance of a ground source heat pump (GSHP) with a combi-storage under several configurations and control factors. The experiments were performed on an innovative modular testbed that is capable of emulating a ground source to provide the heat pump with different temperature levels at different times of the day. Moreover, it can emulate the different building loads such as the space heating load and the domestic hot water consumption in real-time. The data gathered from the testbed and different experimental studies were used to develop a simulation model based on Modelica that can accurately simulate the dynamics of a GSHP in a building. The model was validated based on different metrics. Energetically, the difference between the developed model and the measured values was only 3.08\% and 4.18\% for the heat generation and electricity consumption, respectively.

The capability to avoid other air traffic is a fundamental component of the layered conflict management system to ensure safe and efficient operations in the National Airspace System. The evaluation of systems designed to mitigate the risk of midair collisions of manned aircraft are based on large-scale modeling and simulation efforts and a quantitative volume defined as a near midair collision (NMAC). Since midair collisions are difficult to observe in simulation and are inherently rare events, basing evaluations on NMAC enables a more robust statistical analysis. However, an NMAC and its underlying assumptions for assessing close encounters with manned aircraft do not adequately consider the different characteristics of smaller UAS-only encounters. The primary contribution of this paper is to explore quantitative criteria to use when simulating two or more smaller UASs in sufficiently close proximity that a midair collision might reasonably occur and without any mitigations to reduce the likelihood of a midair collision. The criteria assumes a historically motivated upper bound for the collision likelihood and subsequently identify the smallest possible NMAC analogs. We also demonstrate the NMAC analogs can be used to support modeling and simulation activities.

Recent technological improvements have made abundant changes in construction industry. In specific, some technical applications, such as Building Information Modeling (BIM) opens up many possibilities. Some studies have articulated the use of BIM and its advantages in construction, but most of them are theoretical, not practical. This study is to provide an insight to such obstacles in BIM research. By investigating a real project that could utilize BIM in planning and construction phases, the authors try to investigate a possible outline of advantages in BIM implementation. The study area was set to a railway construction site in South Korea. The site covers a multiple railway tracks, stations, telecommunication facilities, infrastructure facilities, railway structures, and so numerous. In the site, the authors have identified 12 errors in 7 projects that could be prevented if BIM was utilized before the construction. The total upfront costs required to provide a BIM for 7 projects were $116,348. On the other hand, the total costs required to fix the errors in 7 projects were $166,486. This can be regarded as the benefits of using BIM because if BIM was implemented then the associated errors are easily replaced. Therefore, the benefit-cost ratio can be estimated as 1.32 for one-month delay and 1.36 for a three-month delay.

Most of the municipalities in the Gulf region are facing performance related issues in their municipal solid waste management (MSWM) systems. They lack to possess a deliberate inter-municipality benchmarking processes. Instead of identifying the performance gaps for their key components (e.g., personnel productivity, operational reliability, etc.) and adopt proactive measures, the municipalities primarily rely on an efficient emergency response. A novel hierarchical modeling framework, based on deductive reasoning, is developed for performance assessment of MSWM systems. Fuzzy rule based modeling using Simulink-MATLAB was used for performance inferencing at different levels, i.e., component, sub-components, etc. The model is capable of handling the inherent uncertainties due to limited data and imprecise knowledge base. The model’s outcomes can exclusively assist the managers working at different levels of organizational hierarchy for effective decision-making. Performance of the key component, assists the senior management to assess the overall compliance level of performance objectives. Subsequently, operation management can hone in the sub-components to acquire useful information for intra-municipality performance management. While, individual indicators are useful for inter-municipality benchmarking. The model has been implemented on two municipalities operating in Qassim Region, Saudi Arabia. The results demonstrate the model’s pragmatism for continuous performance improvement of MSWM systems in the country and elsewhere.

Purpose: The aim of the present experimental 3D-finite element study was to evaluate the influence of an augmented sinus lift with an additional inserted bone graft block. The bone graft block stabilizes the implant in addition to conventional augmented bone. We placed the block in three different positions. The implants were loaded with axial force and forces secondary to laterotrusion and protrusion. Material and Methods: A simplified U-shaped 3D finite element model of the upper jaw and a more complex anatomical model of the left maxilla were created. The bone graft block was placed in three positions: in the lower third in contact with the sinus floor, the middle, and the upper third of the implant. Van Mises’ stress distribution was calculated and analyzed for the different models. We also compared the complex anatomical model with the simplified one. Results: The position of the bone graft block significantly influences the magnitude of stress distribution. A bone graft block positioned in the upper third or middle of the implant reduces the quantity of stress compared to the reference model without a bone graft block. The low bone graft block position is clearly associated with lower stress distribution in compact bone. We registered no significant differences in stress in compact bone with regard to laterotrusion or protrusion. Conclusions: Maximum values of von Mises stresses in compact bone can be reduced significantly by using a bone graft block. The reduction of stress is nearly the same for positions in the upper third and the middle of the implant. It is much more pronounced when the bone graft block is in the lower third of the implant near the sinus floor, which appeared to be the best position in the present study.

Synthetic Aperture RADAR (SAR) is a radar imaging technique in which the relative motion of the sensor is used to synthesize a very long antenna and obtain high spatial resolution. Standard SAR raw data processing techniques assume uniform motion of the satellite (or aerial vehicle) and a fixed antenna beam pointing sideway orthogonally to the motion path, assumed rectilinear. Despite SAR data processing is a well established imaging technology that has become fundamental in several fields and applications, in this paper a novel approach has been used to exploit coherent illumination, demonstrating the possibility of extracting a large part of the ancillary data information from the raw data itself, to be used in the focusing procedure. In this work an effort has been carried out to try to focus the raw SAR complex data matrix without the knowledge of anyof the parameters needed in standard focusing procedures as Range Doppler (RD) algorithm, ω - K algorithm and Chirp Scaling (CS) algorithm. All the literature references regarding the algorithms needed to obtain a precise image from raw data use such parameters that refer both to the SAR system acquisition geometry and its radiometric specific parameters. In [12], authors introduced a preliminary work dealing with this problem and able to obtain, in the presence of a strong point scatterer in the observed scene, good quality images, if compared to the standard processing techniques. In this work the proposed technique is described and performances parameters are extracted to compare the proposed approach to RD.

Lightning strike can cause a considerable damage in aircraft parts made from semiconducting materials such as Carbon Fiber Reinforced Plastics (CFRPs). Therefore, in recent years, the lightning strike phenomenon has attracted the interest of the academic community and the aircraft industry. Until now, the problem has been addressed mainly experimentally, while the reported numerical works are very limited. In the present work, a coupled electro-thermal FE model has been developed using the ANSYS commercial FE code to simulate the lightning strike damage in unidirectional CFRP laminates due to the Joule heat flux phenomenon. The model is based on the SOLID69 thermoelectric element and applies a non-linear, time-transient analysis. The main input to the model is the thermal-electrical properties of the composite material which vary with temperature. Using the model, a parametric study on the effect of mesh density and peak intensity on the thermal damage has been performed. Three electrical lightning strikes of low (10 kA), medium (30 kA) and high peak intensity (40 kA) have been applied according to the SAE ARP 5412 standard. The electro-thermal model has been validated against a numerical model from the literature. The numerical results reveal that the increase of peak intensity leads to the increase of the area and penetration depth of matrix thermal damage (pyrolysis) as well as to the increase of the area of fiber damage (deterioration and ablation). Through progressive damage modeling, the residual tensile strength of the CFRP plate after being subjected to lightning strike of different peak intensity has been predicted. Lightning strike initial damage has been simulated by translating the thermal field into degradation of elastic properties of the lamina. The results show an increase in the accumulated matrix damage and a decrease of tensile strength due to the initial lightning strike damage. For the maximum peak intensity of 40 kA, a decrease in tensile strength of 4.8% has been predicted

In this study, I extend the Fama and French five-factor asset pricing model with a sixth factor, namely, carbon risk, to investigate its impact on equity returns. To measure carbon risk, a new factor ‘pollutant minus green,’ is developed using the difference between the weighted average returns of pollutant and green firms across 51 developed and emerging countries across four categories—North America, Europe, Emerging Markets, and the Asia Pacific. The results reveal that North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific markets have a carbon risk premium that gets eliminated in small-cap firms. The carbon risk factor is further tested in left-hand side (LHS) test asset portfolios and found to be more pronounced with size-effect anomaly; specifically, small stock firms report greater declining average returns because of more exposure than the mega-cap stocks to carbon dioxide emissions. Furthermore, size-effect anomaly prevails with profitability and investment factors across firms. Therefore, high profitability, as well as high investment small firms, show a greater decline than the big stock firms in average returns when their carbon dioxide emissions increase. The asset pricing model evaluation is carried out through the Gibbons, Ross, and Shanken test. The six-factor model directed at capturing carbon risk patterns in average equity returns performs better than the three-factor and five-factor models of Fama and French (1993 and 2015) in the majority of categories under 3x3 sorting and compete with both Fama and French model under 2x4x4 sorted LHS portfolios. The finding of this study offers various useful applications for investors, policymakers, brokers, corporations, governmental pollution abatement institutions, and other stakeholders who wish to obtain carbon risk premium.

Subsurface temperature is the key parameter in geothermal exploration. An accurate estimation of the reservoir temperature is of high importance and usually done either by interpolation of borehole temperature measurement data or numerical modeling. However, temperature measurements at depths which are of interest for deep geothermal applications (usually deeper than 2 km) are generally sparse. A pure interpolation of such sparse data always involves large uncertainties and usually neglects knowledge of the 3D reservoir geometry or the rock and reservoir properties governing the heat transport. Classical numerical modeling approaches at regional scale usually only include conductive heat transport and do not reflect thermal anomalies along faults created by convective transport. These thermal anomalies however are usually the target of geothermal exploitation. Kriging with trend does allow including secondary data to improve the interpolation of the primary one. Using this approach temperature measurements of depths larger than 1,000 m of the federal state of Hessen/Germany have been interpolated in 3D. A 3D numerical conductive temperature model was used as secondary information. This way the interpolation result reflects thermal anomalies detected by direct temperature measurements as well as the geological structure. This results in a considerable quality increase of the subsurface temperature estimation.

The epithelial-mesenchymal (E/M) hybrid state has emerged as an important mediator of elements of cancer progression, facilitated by epithelial mesenchymal plasticity (EMP). We review here evidence for the presence, prognostic significance, and therapeutic potential of the E/M hybrid state in carcinoma. We further assess modelling predictions and validation studies to demonstrate stabilised E/M hybrid states along the spectrum of EMP, as well as computational approaches for characterising and quantifying EMP phenotypes, with particular attention to the emerging realm of single-cell approaches through RNA sequencing and protein-based techniques.

A novel method based on a hybrid incremental modeling approach has been designed and applied to imbalance detection in ultra-high precision rotating machines. The model is obtained by a two-step iterative process that combines an overall model (least-squares fitting) with a local model (fuzzy k-nearest-neighbour) to take advantage of their complementary capacities. Three normalization strategies of evaluating the effect on accuracy are analyzed. A comparative study demonstrates that the hybrid incremental model provides better error-based performance indices for detecting imbalance than a nonlinear regression model and an adaptive neural-fuzzy inference system model. The suitability of Mahanolobis normalization for hybrid incremental modeling is also demonstrated in this case study. The proposed strategy for imbalance detection is simple, fast, and non-intrusive, reducing the deterioration in the performance of ultra-high precision rotating machines due to vibrations.

Helmeted hornbill (Rhinoplax vigil) is a protected wildlife in Indonesia according to enactment no. 5, 1999 about Conservation of Natural Resources and its Ecosystems and Government Regulation no. 9, 1999 about plant and wildlife preservation. Helmeted Hornbill habitats spread in five country regions: Myanmar, Thailand, Malaysia (Malayan Peninsula and Serawak), Brunei, and Indonesia (Sumatra and Borneo). Silokek Geopark which located in Sijunjung Regency, West Sumatra Province, Indonesia is an identified location of Helmeted Hornbill habitat existence. Beside its uniqueness in physics, this bird also have an ecological function as seed dispersal in nature. The utilization of Remote Sensing (RS) technology and and Geographic Information System (GIS) is highly useful in identification the Helmeted Hornbill habitat distribution in this research. Geographic dateset used in this research are Landsat OLI 8 imagery, Shuttle Radar Topographic Model (SRTM), Coordinate points of Helmeted Hornbill existence and location assesment, and other dataset related to administration boundary in Silokek Geopark. This research aims to find conservation priority zone of Helmeted Hornbill in Silokek Geopark. By utilizing Maximun Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm with finding points and location assessment, we can determine the distribution of Helmeted Hornbill habitat in Silokek Geopark based on habitat likeness. This research produces the model of conservation priority zones in geopark silokek which are distributed in hilly protected forest area and the distributions are concentrated in the center and noth east part of our researc area. This model is highly influenced by forest texture (25.7%), distance of patches (24.3%), and distance of settlement.

Humans are incapable of judging the temporal order of visual events at brief temporal separations with perfect accuracy. Their performance---which is of much interest in visual cognition and attention research---can be measured with the temporal-order judgment task, which typically produces S-shaped psychometric functions. Occasionally, researchers reported plateaus within these functions, and some theories predict such deviation from the basic S shape. However, the centers of the psychometric functions result from the weakest performance at the most difficult presentations and therefore fluctuate strongly, leaving existence and exact shapes of plateaus unclear. This study set out to investigate whether plateaus disappear if the data accuracy is enhanced, or if we are ``stuck on a plateau'', or rather with it. For this purpose, highly accurate data were assessed by model-based analysis. The existence of plateaus is confidently confirmed and two plausible mechanisms derived from very different models are presented. Neither model, however, performs well in the presence of a strong attention manipulation, and model comparison remains unclear on the question which of the models describes the data best. Nevertheless, the present study includes the highest accuracy in visual TOJ data and the most explicit models of plateaus in TOJ studied so far.

Linear elastic fracture modeling coupled with empirical material tension data result in good quantitative agreement with experimental measurements of fracture failure for both brittle and tough epoxy nanocomposites. The nanocomposites comprise diglycidyl ethers of bisphenol A cured with O,O’ bis (2-aminopropylpropylene glycol) (Jeffamine D230) and doped with rubber nanoparticles of varying concentrations. Toughness, critical load, and critical displacement in quasi-static single edge-notched three-point bending are predicted accurately using both surface-based cohesive zone (CZS) and extended finite element (XFEM) methods implemented in Abaqus software. Fracture initiation within a crack is taken at the yield stress from uniaxial tension data. Prediction of fracture processes using a generalized truncated linear traction-separation law was significantly improved by considering the case of a linear softening function. There are no adjustable parameters in the XFEM model. The CZS model requires only optimization of the element displacement at fracture parameter. Thus, these continuum methods describe these materials in mode I fracture with a minimum number of independent parameters.

Copulas are useful tools for modeling the dependence structure between two or more variables. Copulas are becoming a quite flexible tool in modeling dependence among the components of a multivariate vector, in particular to predict losses in insurance and finance. In this article, we study the dependence structure of some well-known real life insurance data (with two components mainly) and subsequently identify the best bivariate copula to model such a scenario via VineCopula package in R. Associated structural properties of these bivariate copulas are also discussed.

Liquid propellants are fast becoming attractive for pulsed plasma thrusters due to their high efficiency and low contamination issues. However, the complete plasma interaction and acceleration processes are still not very clear. Present paper develops a multi-layer numerical model for liquid propellant PPTs. The model proposes a possible acceleration mechanism for liquid fed pulsed plasma thrusters and accurately predicts the propellant utilization capabilities and estimations for the fraction of propellant gas that is completely ionized and accelerated to high exit velocities. Validation of the numerical model and the assumptions on which the model is based on is achieved by comparing the experimental results from two different liquid-fed thrusters developed at the University of Tokyo. Results show 50% of liquid propellant injected is completely ionized and accelerated to high exit velocities (> 50Km/s), whereas, neutral gas contribute to only 7% of the total specific impulse and accelerated to low exit velocity (< 4Km/s). The model shows an accuracy up-to 92%. Optimization methods are briefly discussed to ensure efficient propellant utilization and performance. The model acts as a tool to understand the background physics and to optimize the performance for liquid-fed PPTs.

Synesthesia is a psychological phenomenon where sensory signals become mixed. Input to one sensory modality produces an experience in a second, unstimulated modality. In “grapheme-color synesthesia”, viewed letters and numbers evoke mental imagery of colors. The study of this condition has implications for increasing our understanding of brain architecture and function, language, memory and semantics, and the nature of consciousness. In this work, we propose a novel application deep learning to model perception in grapheme-color synesthesia. Achromatic letter images, taken from database of handwritten characters, are used to induce synesthesia. Results show the model learns to accurately create a colored version of the inducing stimulus, according to a statistical distribution from experiments on a sample population of grapheme-color synesthetes. The spontaneous, creative mental imagery characteristic of the synesthetic perceptual experience is reproduced by the model. A model of synesthesia that generates testable predictions on brain activity and behavior is needed to complement large scale data collection efforts in neuroscience, especially when articulating simple descriptions of cause (stimulus) and effect (behavior). The research and modeling approach reported here begins to address this need.

Causal molecular interactions represent key building blocks used in computational modeling, where they facilitate the assembly of regulatory networks. These regulatory networks can then be used to predict biological and cellular behavior by system perturbations and in silico simulations. Today, broad sets of these interactions are being made available in a variety of biological knowledge resources. Moreover, different visions, based on distinct biological interests, have led to the development of multiple ways to describe and annotate causal molecular interactions. Therefore, data users can find it challenging to efficiently explore resources of causal interaction and to be aware of recorded contextual information that ensures valid use of the data. This manuscript presents a review of public resources collecting causal interactions and the different views they convey, together with a thorough description of the export formats established to store and retrieve these interactions. Our goal is to raise awareness amongst the targeted audience, i.e., logical modelers, but also any scientist interested in molecular causal interactions, about existing data resources and how to get familiar with them.

Wildland fires are responsible for large socio-economic impacts. Fires affect the environment, damage structures, threaten lives, cause health issues, and involve large suppression costs. These impacts can be mitigated via accurate fire spread forecast to inform the incident management team. We show that a fire forecast system based on a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model coupled with a wildland fire behavior model can provide this forecast. This is illustrated with the Chimney Tops II wildland fire responsible for large socio-economic impacts. The system is run at high horizontal resolution (111 m) over the region affected by the fire to provide a fine representation of the terrain and fuel heterogeneities and explicitly resolve atmospheric turbulence. Our findings suggest that one can use the high spatial resolution winds, fire spread and smoke forecast to minimize the adverse impacts of wildland fires.

Evaporation is one of the main processes in the hydrological cycle, and it is one of the most critical factors in agricultural, hydrological, and meteorological studies. Due to the interactions of multiple climatic factors, the evaporation is a complex and nonlinear phenomenon; therefore, the data-based methods can be used to have precise estimations of it. In this regard, in the present study, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), Nearest-Neighbor (IBK), Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) were used to estimate the pan evaporation (PE) in the meteorological stations of Golestan Province, Iran. For this purpose, meteorological data including PE, temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), wind speed (W) and sunny hours (S) collected from the Gonbad-e Kavus, Gorgan and Bandar Torkman stations from 2011 through 2017. The accuracy of the studied methods was determined using the statistical indices of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (R) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Furthermore, the Taylor charts utilized for evaluating the accuracy of the mentioned models. The outcome indicates that the optimum state of Gonbad-e Kavus, Gorgan and Bandar Torkman stations, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) with the error values of 1.521, 1.244, and 1.254, the Nearest-Neighbor (IBK) with error values of 1.991, 1.775, and 1.577, Random Forest (RF) with error values of 1.614, 1.337, and 1.316, and Support Vector Regression (SVR) with error values of 1.55, 1.262, and 1.275, respectively, have more appropriate performances in estimating PE. It found that GPR for Gonbad-e Kavus Station with input parameters of T, W and S and GPR for Gorgan and Bandar Torkmen stations with input parameters of T, RH, W, and S had the most accurate performances and proposed for precise estimation of PE. Due to the high rate of evaporation in Iran and the lack of measurement instruments, the findings of the current study indicated that the PE values might be estimated with few easily measured meteorological parameters accurately.

Proper management of solar energy, as an effective renewable source, is of high importance toward sustainable energy harvesting. This paper offers a novel sophisticated method for predicting solar irradiance (SIr) from environmental conditions. To this end, an efficient metaheuristic technique, namely electromagnetic field optimization (EFO) is employed for optimizing a neural network. This algorithm quickly mines a publicly available dataset for non-linearly tuning the network parameters. To suggest an optimal configuration, five influential parameters of the EFO (i.e., N_Pop, R_rate, Ps_rate, P_field, and N_field) are optimized by an extensive trial and error practice. Analyzing the results showed that the proposed model can learn the SIr pattern and predict it for unseen conditions with high accuracy. Furthermore, it provided about 10% and 16% higher accuracy compared to two benchmark optimizers, namely shuffled complex evolution and shuffled frog leaping algorithm. Hence, the EFO-supervised neural network can be a promising tool for the early prediction of SIr in practice. The findings of this research may shed light on the use of advanced intelligent models for efficient energy development.

Selective laser melting (SLM) is one of the widely used techniques in metallic additive manufacturing, in which high-density laser powder is utilized to selectively melting layers of powders to create geometrically complex parts. Temperature distribution and molten pool geometry directly determine the balling effect, and concentrated balling phenomenon significantly deteriorates surface integrity and mechanical properties of the part. Finite element models have been developed to predict temperature distribution and molten pool geometry, but they were computationally expensive. In this paper, the three-dimensional temperature distributions are predicted by analytical models using point moving heat source and semi-ellipsoidal moving source respectively. The molten pool dimensions under various process conditions are obtained from the three-dimensional temperature predictions and experimentally validated. Ti-6Al-4V alloy is chosen for the investigation. Good agreements between the predictions and the measurements are observed. The presented models are also suitable for other metallic materials in the SLM process.

Temperature field is an essential attribute of metal additive manufacturing in view of its bearings on the prediction, control, and optimization of residual stress, part distortion, fatigue, balling effect, etc. This work provides an analytical physics-based approach to investigate the effect of scan strategy parameters including time delay between two irradiations and hatching space on thermal material properties and melt pool geometry. This approach is performed through the analysis of the distribution of material properties and temperature profile in three-dimensional space. The moving point heat source approach is used to predict the temperature field. To predict the temperature field during the additive manufacturing process some important phenomena are considered. 1) Due to the high magnitude of temperature in the presence of the laser, the temperature gradient is usually high which has a crucial influence on thermal material properties. Consequently, the thermal material properties of stainless steel grade 316L are considered to be temperature-dependent. 2) Due to the repeated heating and cooling, part usually undergoes several melting and solidification cycles. This physical phenomenon is considered by modifying the heat capacity using the latent heat of melting. 3) The multi-layer aspect of metal AM process is considered by incorporating the temperature history from the previous layer since the interaction of the successive layers has an impact on heat transfer mechanisms. 4) Effect of heat affected zone on thermal material properties is considered by the superposition of material properties in regions where the temperature fields of two consecutive irradiations have an overlap since the consecutive irradiations change the behavior of the material properties. The goals are to 1) investigate the effects of temperature-sensitive material properties and constant material properties on the temperature field. 2) Study the behavior of thermal material properties under different scan strategies. 3) Study the importance of considering the effect of heat affected zone on thermal material through the prediction of melt pool geometry. 4) Investigate the effect of hatching space on melt pool geometry. This work is purely employed physics-based analytical models to predict the behavior of material properties and temperature field under different process conditions, and no finite element modeling is used.

Estimation of core and surface temperature is one of the crucial functionalities of the lithium-ion Battery Management System (BMS) towards providing effective thermal management, fault detection and operational safety. While, it is impractical to measure core temperature using physical sensors, implementing a complex estimation strategy in on-board low-cost BMS is challenging due to high computational cost and the cost of implementation. Typically, a temperature estimation scheme consists of a heat generation model and a heat transfer model. Several researchers have already proposed ranges of thermal models having different levels of accuracy and complexity. Broadly, there are first-order and second-order heat capacitor-resistor-based thermal models of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) for core and surface temperature estimation. This paper deals with a detailed comparative study between these two models using extensive laboratory test data and simulation study to access suitability in online prediction and onboard BMS. The aim is to guide whether it’s worth investing towards developing a second-order model instead of a first-order model with respect to prediction accuracy considering modelling complexity, experiments required and the computational cost. Both the thermal models along with the parameter estimation scheme are modelled and simulated using MATLAB/Simulink environment. Models are validated using laboratory test data of a cylindrical 18650 LIB cell. Further, a Kalman Filter with appropriate process and measurement noise levels are used to estimate the core temperature in terms of measured surface and ambient temperatures. Results from the first-order model and second-order models are analyzed for comparison purposes.

The concept of transit-oriented development (TOD) has been widely recognized in recent years for its role in reducing car traffic, improving public transportation, and enhancing traffic sustainability. This paper conducts empirical research on a developed rail transit network, using Shanghai as a case study. In addition to traditional TOD features, other factors based on urban rail transit are introduced, including multi-level modeling (MLM), which is used to analyze the possible factors influencing rail patronage. To avoid the bias of research results led by the correlation between independent variables, factors are divided into two levels. The first level includes three groups of variables: the built environment, station characteristics, and socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. The second level includes a set of variables which are regional characteristics. Results show that the most significant impact on train patronage is station location in the business district area. Other factors that have a positive effect on promoting rail transit travel include the number of service facilities around the station, degree of employment around the station, economic level, intensity of residential development, if the station is a transfer station, the operating period of the station, and the size of the large transportation hub around the station.

RAS oncogenes are amongst the most commonly mutated proteins in human cancers. They regulate a wide range of effector pathways that control cell proliferation, survival, differentiation, migration and metabolic status. Including aberrations in these pathways, RAS dependent signaling is altered in more than half of human cancers. Targeting mutant RAS proteins and their downstream oncogenic signaling pathways has been elusive. However, recent results comprising detailed molecular studies, large scale omics studies and computational modeling have painted a new and more comprehensive portrait of RAS signaling that helps us to understand the intricacies of RAS, how its physiological and pathophysiological functions are regulated, and how we can target them. Here, we review these efforts particularly trying to relate the detailed mechanistic studies with global functional studies. We highlight the importance of computational modeling and data integration to derive an actionable understanding of RAS signaling that will allow us to design new mechanism based therapies for RAS mutated cancers.

In the contemporary construction management, poor project performance, cost overrun, and low-quality construction have become a central point of attention for improving project performance including information, interaction and communication management. virtual design and construction and building information modelling play indispensable role in improving the project performance. The aim of this study is to propose a Virtual Information Modeling as a novel information and communication technology method with potential to overcome problems in the construction industry. Using one-sample t test with Kolmogorov-Smirnov approach, we analysed data collected from structured questionnaire survey involving project managers working at architecture, engineering and construction industries in Tehran, Iran. The results suggest that the most important benefits and challenges of using Virtual Information Modeling are related to the area of integration, and implementation of Virtual Information Modeling has the greatest impact on this area of project management knowledge. Thus, integration should be considered a top priority for construction companies implementing Virtual Information Modeling in their projects. Policymakers should understand that careful management of virtual information is essential for improving the performance of projects and enhancing the process efficiency.

Studies performed at single-cell resolution have demonstrated the physiological significance of cell-to-cell variability. Various types of mathematical models and systems analyses of biological networks have further been used to gain a better understanding of the sources and regulatory mechanisms of such variability. In this work, we present a novel sensitivity analysis method, called molecular density function perturbation (MDFP), for the dynamical analysis of cellular heterogeneity. The proposed analysis is based on introducing perturbations to the density or distribution function of the cellular state variables at specific time points, and quantifying how such perturbations affect the state distribution at later time points. We applied the MDFP analysis to a model of signal transduction pathway involved in TRAIL (tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand)-induced apoptosis in HeLa cells. The MDFP analysis showed that caspase-8 activation regulates the timing of the switch-like increase of cPARP (cleaved poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase), an indicator of apoptosis. Meanwhile, the cell-to-cell variability in the commitment to apoptosis depended on mitochondrial outer membrane permeabilization (MOMP) and events following MOMP, including the release of Smac (second mitochondria-derived activator of caspases) and cytochrome-C from mitochondria, the inhibition of XIAP (X-linked inhibitor of apoptosis) by Smac and the formation of apoptosome.

Abstract: Polylactic acid (PLA) is brittle in nature with extensive deformation property. For improvement of the end-use quality, it is of significant importance to enhance the producibility of fused deposition modeling (FDM)-printed objects in PLA. The purpose of this investigation is to boost toughness and to reduce the production cost of the FDM-printed tensile test samples with the desired part thickness. To attain the research purpose number of experiments are designed and analyzed by the Response Surface Method (RSM). The statistical analysis is performed to deal with this concern considering layer thickness, infill percentage, and extruder temperature as controlled factors. The tensile test specimens are printed based on the designed experiments, and the tensile strength tests are conducted by SANTAM 150 universal testing machine based on ASTM D638. The honeycomb internal fill pattern is applied for the production of light-weight and high-strength specimens. The area under Force- Extension curve up to fracture is acquired as the toughness of the printed specimens. This study also developed a modeling process using ANN and ANN-GA techniques for developing an accurate estimation for toughness, part thickness, and production cost as dependant variables. Results were evaluated by correlation coefficient and RMSE values. According to the modeling results, ANN-GA as a hybrid ML technique could successfully improve the accuracy of modeling about 7.5, 11.5 and 4.5 % for toughness, part thickness, and production cost, respectively, in comparison with those for the single ANN method. In the other side, the optimization results confirm that the optimized specimen is cost-effective and able to comparatively undergo deformation, which develops the usability of printed PLA objects. The research is accomplished under the constraints of PLA compatibility with existing fused deposition modeling setup without changing the functional hardware/software of the machine. Although the mechanical properties and dimensional accuracy of PLA have already been studied, there is little literature on the toughness of the printed PLA with honeycomb internal fill pattern.

Coincident changes in abundance and behavior pose a challenge for interpreting abundance data from monitoring programs. In the San Francisco Estuary, long-term monitoring documented the declines of many species including the anadromous Longfin Smelt (Spirinchus thaleichthys). We identified seasonal patterns in reginal presence of Longfin Smelt through its life cycle using monitoring data and generalized additive modelling. We then investigated the year-to-year variability in the seasonal patterns of presence using functional data analysis (FDA). FDA separated the variability due to population size from variability due to differences in timing of presence. We found that Longfin Smelt have consistent seasonal distribution patterns and that two trawl types were needed to accurately describe those patterns. After accounting for variability due to year-class strength, shifts in the timing of presence were evident in three regions. The most variable period for the upstream regions Suisun Bay and West Delta was for age-0 fish in summer and for the downstream region Central Bay was for age-0 fish in late fall. This manifested as a delay in the typical fall re-occupation of upstream regions that comprise the study area for another monitoring study (Fall Midwater Trawl). Thus, a portion of the recent reductions in Fall Midwater Trawl abundance of Longfin Smelt resulted from changes in behavior rather than a decline in abundance. The presence of multiple monitoring surveys allowed analysis of distribution from one data set to aid interpretation of patterns in abundance from another monitoring survey. This study highlights how identifying portions of the life cycle with the most and least variability in distribution can help inform the types of management strategies that will be most effective. It also illustrates an analytical method that can be used to address the problem of confounded effects of abundance and behavior on patterns in monitoring data.

Power disaggregation aims at determining the appliance-by-appliance electricity consumption leveraging upon a single meter only, which measures the entire power demand. Data-driven procedures based on Factorial Hidden Markov Models have been proven remarkable results on energy disaggregation. Nevertheless, those procedures have various weaknesses: there is a scalability problem as the number of devices to observe raises and the algorithmic complexity of the inference step is severe. DNN architectures, such as Convolutional Neural Networks, have demonstrated to be a viable solution to deal with FHMMs shortcomings. Nonetheless, there are two significant limitations: a complicated and time-consuming training system based on back-propagation has to be employed to estimates the neural architecture parameters, and large amounts of training data covering as many operation conditions as possible need to be collected to attain top performances. In this work, we aim to overcome those limitations by leveraging upon the unique and useful characteristics of the extreme learning machine technique, which is based on a collection of randomly chosen hidden units and analytically defined output weights. Experiment evaluation has been conducted using the UK-DALE corpus. We find that the suggested approach achieves similar performances to recently proposed ANN-based methods and outperforms FHMMs. Besides, our solution generalises well to unseen houses.

Choosing the optimal location for a city based on sound environmental geomorphology planning is of the utmost importance to achieving environmental sustainability, as it can spare the State and other decision-making entities a great deal of stress in the long run. GIS offers great potential for environmental planners to choose the most appropriate places for the cities of the future, especially when coupled with environmental geomorphological analyses. The State of Kuwait seeks sustainable development through the implementation of clear and specific urban plans, some of which suffer from a severe lack of geomorphological and spatially based environmental planning. This study aims to: 1) Conduct suitability modelling for establishing new cities in Kuwait, 2) Assess the current 2005-2030 urban plan, and 3) Propose possible recommendations and solutions for potential urban problems. The study relies on integrating several methods to devise a framework that will aid researchers and decision-makers in selecting optimal locations for built structures based on analysis and modelling (e.g., digital elevation model, geologic mapping, geomorphology, natural hazards, heritage/archaeological sites, military areas, oil fields, soils). Using this methodology in choosing city sites contributes to achieving sustainable development, reducing city problems, saving countries’ budgets, and saving lives. Results from this study enhance understanding of how environmental geomorphology, when combined with GIS, can be harnessed to achieve sustainable urban development in the Arabian Gulf countries and other desert countries.

Land surface albedo determines the splitting of downwelling solar radiation into components which are either reflected back to the atmosphere or absorbed by the surface. Land surface albedo is an important variable for the climate community and therefore was defined by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) as an Essential Climate Variable (ECV). Within the scope of the Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis (LSA SAF) of EUMETSAT, a near-real time (NRT) daily albedo product was developed in the last decade from observations provided by the SEVIRI instrument on board the geostationary satellites of the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) series. In this study we present a new collection of albedo satellite products based on the same satellite data. The MSG Ten-day ALbedo (MTAL) product incorporates MSG observations over 31 days with a frequency of NRT production of 10 days. The MTAL collection is more dedicated to climate analysis studies compared to the daily albedo that was initially designed for the weather prediction community. For this reason, a homogeneous reprocessing of MTAL was done in 2018 to generate a Climate Data Record (CDR). The resulting product is called MTAL-R and has been made available to the community in addition to the NRT version of the MTAL product which has been available for several years. The retrieval algorithm behind the MTAL products comprises three distinct modules: one for atmospheric correction, one for daily inversion of a semi-empirical model of the bidirectional reflectance distribution function, and one for monthly composition that also determines surface albedo values. In this study the MTAL-R CDR is compared to ground surface measurements and concomitant albedo products collected by sensors on-board polar-orbiting satellites (SPOT-VGT and MODIS). We show that MTAL-R meets the quality requirements if MODIS or SPOT-VGT are considered as reference. This work leads to 14 years of production of geostationary land surface albedo products with a guaranteed continuity in the LSA SAF for the future years with the forthcoming third generation of European geostationary satellites.

The bottleneck in creating dynamic models of biological networks and processes often lies in estimating unknown kinetic model parameters from experimental data. In this regard, experimental conditions have a strong influence on parameter identifiability and should therefore be optimized to give the maximum information for parameter estimation. Existing model-based design of experiment (MBDOE) methods commonly rely on the Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) for defining a metric of data informativeness. When the model behavior is highly nonlinear, FIM-based criteria may lead to suboptimal designs since the FIM only accounts for the linear variation of the model outputs with respect to the parameters. In this work, we developed a multi-objective optimization (MOO) MBDOE, where model nonlinearity was taken into consideration through the use of curvature. The proposed MOO MBDOE involved maximizing data informativeness using a FIM-based metric and at the same time minimizing the model curvature. We demonstrated the advantages of the MOO MBDOE over existing FIM-based and other curvature-based MBDOEs in an application to the kinetic modeling of fed-batch fermentation of Baker's yeast.

Inhibitory activity of 14 phosphonic analogues of phenylglycine, substituted in aromatic ring by fluorine and chlorine, was determined towards porcine aminopeptidase N. The obtained data served as a basis for studying their interaction with the enzyme as modelled by the use of Schrödinger Release 2018 program. The observed linearity between modelled Gibbs free energy differences and inhibitory constants indicated the usefulness of this program. The obtained binding mode was compared with this modelled for bovine lens leucine aminopeptidase. Although both enzymes differ in the number of zinc ions present in the active site, they are considered to exhibit similar activity towards substrates and inhibitors. Our studies seem to support that supposition since the modes of binding of the studied inhibitors are quite similar. Additionally, inhibitory activity of the phosphonic analogues of phenylglycine towards barley aminopetpidase was determined showing that this enzyme could be considered as neutral aminopeptidase.

Microbiomes, comprised of diverse microbial species and viruses, play pivotal roles in human health, environmental processes, and biotechnological applications and interact with themselves, their environment, and hosts via metabolites and signaling molecules. Our understanding of microbiomes is still limited and hampered by their complexity. A concept improving this understanding is systems biology, which focuses on the holistic description of biological systems utilizing experimental and computational methods. An important set of such experimental methods are metaomics methods which analyze microbiomes and output lists of molecular features. These lists of data are integrated, interpreted, and compiled into computational microbiome models, to predict, optimize, and control microbiome behavior. There exists a gap in understanding between microbiologists and modelers/bioinformaticians, stemming from a lack of interdisciplinary knowledge. This knowledge gap hinders the establishment of computational models in microbiome analysis. This review aims to bridge this gap and is tailored for microbiologists, researchers new to microbiome modeling, and bioinformaticians. To achieve this goal, it provides an interdisciplinary overview of microbiome modeling, starting with fundamental knowledge of microbiomes, metagenomics methods, and modeling formalisms. Furthermore, the review explains model building, examples of microbiome model applications for prediction, optimization, and control. It concludes with guidelines, software, and repositories for modeling. Each section provides entry-level information, serving as a valuable resource for comprehending and navigating the complex landscape of microbiome research and modeling.

A mathematical model is proposed for quantitative description of the outbreak of novel coronavirus COVID-19 Although the model is relatively simple, the comparison with the public data shows that an exact solution solution of the model (with the correctly-specified parameters) leads to the results, which are in good agreement with the measured data in China and Austria. Prediction of the total number of the COVID-19 cases is discussed and examples are presented using the measured data in Austria, France and Poland.

The State of Kuwait seeks sustainable development through implementation of clear and specific urban plans, some of which suffer from a severe lack of geomorphological and spatially-based environmental planning, such as the use of geographic information systems (GIS). Choosing the optimal location for a city based on sound environmental planning is of the utmost importance to achieving environmental sustainability, as it can spare the State and other decision-making entities a great deal of stress in the long run. GIS, in particular, offers great potential for the environmental planner and decision-maker to choose the most appropriate places for the cities of the future, especially when coupled with geomorphological analyses. To achieve the Vision of Kuwait 2035, one of the State’s planning objectives focuses on Urban Planning for the Establishment of Environmental Cities that Achieve (UPEECA) environmental sustainability criteria. To gain a more holistic analysis related to the Vision, this study aims to: 1) Conduct suitability modelling for establishing new cities in Kuwait, 2) Assess the current 2005-2030 urban plan, and 3) Propose possible recommendations and solutions for potential urban problems. The study relies on integrating several methods to devise a framework that will aid researchers and decision-makers in selecting optimal locations for built structures based on analysis and modelling (e.g., digital elevation model, geologic mapping, geomorphology, natural hazards, heritage/archaeological sites, military areas, oil fields, soils)

Factorization reduces computational complexity and is therefore an important tool in statistical machine learning of high dimensional systems. Conventional molecular modeling, including molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo simulations of molecular systems, is a large research field based on approximate factorization of molecular interactions. Recently, the local distribution theory was proposed to factorize global joint distribution of a given molecular system into trainable local distributions. Belief propagation algorithms are a family of exact factorization algorithms for trees and are extended to approximate loopy belief propagation algorithms for graphs with loops. Despite the fact that factorization of probability distribution is their common foundation, computational research in molecular systems and machine learning studies utilizing belief propagation algorithms have been carried out independently with respective track of algorithm development. The connection and differences among these factorization algorithms are briefly presented in this perspective, with the hope to intrigue further development in factorization algorithms for physical modeling of complex molecular systems.

With advances in Building Information Modeling (BIM), Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) technologies have many potential applications in the Architecture, Engineering, and Construction (AEC) industry. However, the AEC industry, relative to other industries, has been slow in adopting AR/VR technologies, partly due to lack of feasibility studies examining the actual cost of implementation versus an increase in profit. The main objectives of this paper are to understand the industry trends in adopting AR/VR technologies and identifying gaps within the industry. The identified gaps can lead to opportunities for developing new tools and finding new use cases. To achieve these goals, two rounds of a survey at two different time periods (a year apart) were conducted. Responses from 158 industry experts and researchers were analyzed to assess the current state, growth, and saving opportunities for AR/VR technologies for the AEC industry. The findings demonstrate that older generations are significantly more confident about the future of AR/VR technologies and they see more benefits in AR/VR utilization. Furthermore, the research results indicate that Residential and commercial sectors have adopted these tools the most, compared to other sectors and institutional and transportation sectors had the highest growth from 2017 to 2018. Industry experts anticipated a solid growth in the use of AR/VR technologies in 5 to 10 years, with the highest expectations towards healthcare. Ultimately, the findings show a significant increase in AR/VR utilization in the AEC industry from 2017 to 2018.

COVID-19 is one of the deadliest respiratory diseases, and its emergence caught the pharmaceutical industry off guard. While vaccines have been rapidly developed, treatment options for infected people remain scarce, and COVID-19 poses a substantial global threat. This study presents a novel workflow to predict robust druggable targets against emerging RNA viruses using metabolic networks and information of the viral structure and its genome sequence. For this purpose, we implemented pymCADRE and PREDICATE to create tissue-specific metabolic models, construct viral biomass functions and predict host-based antiviral targets from more than one genome. We observed that pymCADRE reduces the computational time of flux variability analysis for internal optimizations. We applied these tools to create a new metabolic network of primary bronchial epithelial cells infected with SARS-CoV-2 and identified enzymatic reactions with inhibitory effects. The most promising reported targets were from the purine metabolism, while targeting the pyrimidine and carbohydrate metabolisms seemed to be promising approaches to enhance viral inhibition. Finally, we computationally tested the robustness of our targets in all known variants of concern, verifying our targets’ inhibitory effects. Since laboratory tests are time-consuming and involve complex readouts to track processes, our workflow focuses on metabolic fluxes within infected cells and is applicable for rapid hypothesis-driven identification of potentially exploitable antivirals concerning various viruses and host cell types.

The purpose of interdisciplinary communication during the early architectural design stage is to achieve the early integration of knowledge in different professional fields, which can help architects to choose correct design development strategies during the early architectural design stage. However, because there is too little information at the early design stage, and design solutions are still rapidly changing and developing, the uncertainties at this stage make it difficult for consultants in other disciplines to provide their views and analysis. In spite of this situation, the emergence of generative modeling is changing design procedures and methods of communication and cooperation for architectural teams, and has brought about a shift in the way architects transmit design information from "what" (declarative information) to "how" (procedural information). Generative modeling is like an aircraft's dashboard: It can provide a basis for interdisciplinary communication, provide interdisciplinary knowledge packages, and bring about a shift in interdisciplinary communication that will reduce the architectural team's communication needs and cost. This study uses a real design case to show the feasibility of generative modeling. Employing generative modeling as a basis, architects can enhance the efficiency of design change and multi-disciplinary communication during the early design stage, integrate specialized knowledge in relevant fields, use this knowledge to formulate design criteria for the next stage, and effectively transmit design decisions. As a consequence, the changes to the cost structure of design revisions and communication between different disciplines has initiated a paradigm shift toward multi-disciplinary communication in architectural design.

A sustainable business model describes the rationale of how an organization creates, delivers, and captures value, in economic, social, cultural or other contexts in a sustainable way. The process of sustainable business model construction forms an innovative part of business strategy. Different industries and business types have utilized sustainability business models to satisfy their economic, environmental and social goals simultaneously. This study is conducted to present the state of the art of sustainable business models in various application areas. The business models are classified and reviewed in different application groups. To do so, a review is conducted, and the findings reveal that the application of sustainability business models can be classified in 16 unique categories. The key contribution of this study is providing an insight about the state of the art of sustainable business models in various application areas and its research path.

Cyber defense is reactive and slow. On average, the time-to-remedy is hundreds of times larger than the time-to-compromise. In response to the expanding ever-more-complex threat landscape, Digital Twins (DTs) and particularly Human Digital Twins (HDTs) offer the capability of running massive simulations across multiple knowledge domains. Simulated results may offer insights into adversaries' behaviors and tactics, resulting in better proactive cyber-defense strategies. For the first time, this paper solidifies the vision of DTs and HDTs for cybersecurity via the Cybonto conceptual framework proposal. The paper also contributes the Cybonto ontology, formally documenting 108 constructs and thousands of cognitive-related paths based on 20 time-tested psychology theories. Finally, the paper applied 20 network centrality algorithms in analyzing the 108 constructs. The identified top 10 constructs call for extensions of current digital cognitive architectures in preparation for the DT future.

The possibility of using additive manufacturing (AM) in the medicine area has created a new opportunities in health care. This has contributed to a sharp increase in demand for 3D printers, their systems and materials that are adapted to strict medical requirements. We described herein a medical-grade thermoplastic polyurethane (S-TPU), which was developed and then formed into a filament for Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM) 3D printers during a melt-extrusion process. S-TPU consisting of aliphatic hexamethylene 1,6-diisocyanate (HDI), amorphous α,ω-dihydroxy(ethylene-butylene adipate) (PEBA) and 1,4 butandiol (BDO) as a chain extender, was synthesized without the use of a catalyst. The filament properties were characterized by rheological, mechanical, physico-chemical and in vitro biological properties. The tests showed biocompatibility of the obtained filament as well as revealed no significant effect of the filament formation process on its properties. This study may contribute to expanding the range of medical-grade flexible filaments for standard low-budget FDM printers.

As of today, 20 disease modifying drugs (DMD) have been approved for the treatment of relapsing multiple sclerosis (MS) and, based on their efficacy, they can be grouped into moderate-efficacy DMDs and high-efficacy DMDs. The choice of the drug mostly relies on the judgement and experience of neurologists and the evaluation of therapeutic response can only be obtained by monitoring clinical and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) status during follow up. In an era where therapies are focused on personalization, the aim of this study is to develop a modeling infrastructure to predict the evolution of relapsing MS and the response to treatments. We built a computational modeling infrastructure named UISS (Universal Immune System Simulator) able to simulate the main features and dynamics of the immune system activities. We extended UISS to simulate all the underlying MS pathogenesis and its interaction with the host immune system. This simulator is a multi-scale, multi-organ, agent based simulator with an attached module capable of simulating the dynamics of specific biological pathways at the molecular level. We simulated six MS patients with different relapsing-remitting courses. These patients were characterized on the basis of their age, sex, presence of oligoclonal bands, therapy and MRI lesion load at onset. The simulator framework is made freely available and can be used following the links provided in the availability section. Even though the model can be further personalized employing immunological parameters and genetic information, based on the available data we generated a few simulation scenarios for each patient, including those who matched the real clinical and MRI history. Moreover, for two patients, the simulator anticipated the timing of subsequent relapses, which really occurred, suggesting that UISS may have the potential to assist MS specialists in predicting the course of the disease and the response to treatment.

Floods in Ukraine is a common natural phenomenon that repeats periodically and in some cases it becomes disastrous signs. In an average year in the rivers of Volyn passes from one to three floods with going beyond the limits of the floodplain. Floodplain of Styr river is located in the historical center of Lutsk city, that`s why issues of research and forecasting of floods are very important for a given city. Using modern technologies of geodesy and remote sensing allows to quickly determine and predict the floodplain area of settlements. The research results of water level changes on the Styr River and flood zones within the limits of Lutsk is proposed. The mathematical model of short-term forecasting of water level in flood period on the river Styr with implementation of geoinformation modeling of flooded areas using remote sensing data is proposed.

Bioprocesses for the production of renewable energies and materials lack efficient separation processes for the utilized microorganisms such as algae and yeasts. Dissolved air flotation (DAF) and microflotation are promising approaches to overcome this problem. The efficiency of these processes depends on the ability of microorganisms to aggregate with microbubbles in the flotation tank. In this study, different new or adapted aggregation models for microbubbles and microorganisms are compared and investigated for their range of suitability to predict the separation efficiency of microorganisms from fermentation broths. The complexity of the heteroaggregation models range from an algebraic model to a 2D population balance model (PBM) including the formation of clusters containing several bubbles and microorganisms. The effect of bubble and cell size distributions on the flotation efficiency is considered by applying PBMs, as well. To determine the impact of the model assumptions, the modeling approaches are compared and classified for their range of applicability. Evaluating computational fluid dynamics (CFD) of a DAF system shows the heterogeneity of the fluid dynamics in the flotation tank. Since analysis of the streamlines of the tank show negligible backmixing, the proposed aggregation models are coupled to the CFD data by applying a Lagrangian approach.

The availability of rail infrastructure resources is a major driver of rail operations performance. To evaluate the impact of infrastructure provision, network simulation models can be used to accurately represent train traffic behavior in a wide range of scenarios. However, performing this task can result in a problem of high combinatorial nature as the number of factors and their associated levels increase. This requires more sophisticated techniques such as experimental design formulations or optimization modeling in order to yield satisfactory results. Yet the research in network simulation models for rail systems has hitherto been limited to simple what-if analysis, made up from few factors that cannot represent the whole spectrum of interventions. This is especially critical in closed-loop rail systems where trains are subject to various interferences. Local improvements can be misleading as the queues are merely transferred within the network. Considering this, we propose a hybrid simulation-optimization model to aid the strategic decision of minimizing supplementary capital costs in a heavy-haul Brazilian railroad under construction. As soon as the railroad is completed, investments in both loading and unloading rail terminals will be necessary. First, we developed a representative and flexible model capable of dealing with complex relations between variable infrastructure provision and the resulting operational performance. Then, we simulated this system to prove that the current set of proposed infrastructure resources cannot meet the transportation demands. Afterwards, we demonstrate that local improvements can be delusive as the queues are shifted from loading to unloading operations, reciprocally. Then, we solve an optimization model to define the minimal supplementary investment in order to meet the commercial goals of mining companies. This is done by choosing the best trackage configuration, equipment quantity and capacity and fleet sizing in 3 different production scenarios. The best values of the objective function were found by improving both loading and unloading equipment and increasing the number of trains.

This paper presents the validation of the End Point Rate (EPR) tool for QGIS (EPR4Q), a tool built-in QGIS Graphical Modeler to calculate the shoreline change by End Point Rate method. The EPR4Q tries to fill the gap of user-friendly and free open-source tool for shoreline analysis in Geographic Information System environment, since the most used software - Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) - although is a free extension, is suited for commercial software. Besides, the best free open-source option to calculate EPR called Analyzing Moving Boundaries Using R (AMBUR), since it is a robust and powerful tool, the complexity and heavy processes can restrict the accessibility and simple usage. The validation methodology consists of applying the EPR4Q, DSAS, and AMBUR on different examples of shorelines found in nature, extracted from the U.S. Geological Survey Open-File. The obtained results of each tool were compared with Pearson correlation coefficient. The validation results indicate that the EPR4Q tool created acquired high correlation values with DSAS and AMBUR, reaching a coefficient of 0.98 to 1.00 on linear, extensive, and non-extensive shorelines, guarantying that the EPR4Q tool is ready to be freely used by the academic, scientific, engineering, and coastal managers communities worldwide.

This report describes the collection of a large dataset (6930 measurement) on dimensional error in the fused deposition modeling (FDM) additive manufacturing process for full-density parts. Three different print orientations were studied, as well as seven raster angles (0°, 15°, 30°, 45°, 60°, 75°, and 90°) for the rectilinear infill pattern. All measurements were replicated ten times on ten different samples to ensure a comprehensive dataset. Eleven polymer materials were considered: acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), polylactic acid (PLA), high-temperature PLA, wood-composite PLA, carbon-fiber-composite PLA, copper-composite PLA, aluminum-composite PLA, high-impact polystyrene (HIPS), polyethylene terephthalate glycol-enhanced (PETG), polycarbonate, and synthetic polyamide (nylon). The samples were ASTM-standard impact testing samples, since this geometry allows the measurement of error on three different scales; the nominal dimensions were 3.25mm thick, 63.5mm long, and 12.7mm wide. This dataset is intended to give engineers and product designers a benchmark for judging the accuracy and repeatability of the FDM process for use in manufacturing of end-user products.

The Epithelial- Mesenchymal Transition (EMT) is a biological phenomenon associated with explicit phenotypic and molecular changes in cellular traits. Unlike the earlier-held popular belief of it being a binary process, EMT is now thought of as a landscape including diverse hybrid E/M phenotypes manifested by varying degrees of the transition. These hybrid cells can co-express both epithelial and mesenchymal markers and/or functional traits, and can possess the property of collective cell migration, enhanced tumor-initiating ability, and immune/targeted therapy-evasive features, all of which are often associated with worse patient outcomes. These characteristics of the hybrid E/M cells have led to a surge in studies that map their biophysical and biochemical hallmarks that can be helpful in exploiting their therapeutic vulnerabilities. This review discusses recent advances made in investigating hybrid E/M phenotype(s) from diverse biophysical and biochemical aspects by integrating live cell-imaging, cellular morphology quantification and mathematical modeling, and highlights a set of questions that remain unanswered about the dynamics of hybrid E/M states.

A transport process was studied from an aqueous solution containing oxalic acid and 100 mg/L Ge using a flat sheet supported liquid membrane (FSSLM) system. Cyanex 923 immobilized in a polytetrafluoroethylene membrane was employed as a carrier. The solution chemistry and related diagrams were applied to study the transport of germanium. The effectual parameters such as oxalic acid, carrier concentration, and strip reagent composition were evaluated in this study. Based on the results, the oxalic acid concentration of 0.075 mol/L and the carrier concentration of 20 %v/v were the condition in which the efficient germanium transport occurred. Among strip reagents, NaOH (0.04-0.1 mol/L) had the best efficiency to transport germanium through the SLM system. Furthermore, the permeation model was obtained to calculate the mass transfer resistances of the membrane (Δ_m) and feed (Δ_f) phases. According to the results, the values of 1 and 1345 s/cm were evaluated for Δ_m and Δ_f, respectively.

Introduction: Heat is a kinetic process whereby energy flows from between two systems; hot-to-cold objects. In oro-dental implantology, conductive heat transfer/(or thermal stress) is a complex physical phenomenon to analyze and consider in treatment planning. Hence, ample research has attempted to measure heat-production to avoid over-heating during bone-cutting and -drilling for titanium (Ti) implant-site preparation and insertion, thereby preventing/minimizing early (as well as delayed) implant-related complications and failure. Objective: Given the low bone-thermal conductivity whereby heat generated by osteotomies is not effectively dissipated and tends to remain within the surrounding tissue (peri-implant), increasing the possibility of thermal-injury; this work attempts to obtain an exact analytical solution of the heat equation under exponential thermal-stress, modeling transient heat transfer and temperature changes in Ti implants upon hot-liquid intake. Materials and Methods: We investigate the impact of the material, the location point along implant length, and the exposure time of the thermal load on temperature changes. Results: Despite its simplicity, the presented solution contains all the physics and reproduces the key features obtained in previous numerical analyses studies. To the best of knowledge, this is the first introduction of the intrinsic time, a “proper” time that characterizes the geometry of the dental implant, where we show, mathematically and graphically, how the interplay between “proper” time and exposure time influences temperature changes in Ti implants, under the suitable initial and boundary conditions. Conclusions: This work aspires to accurately complement the overall clinical diagnostic and treatment plan for enhanced bone-implant interface, implant stability and success rates, whether for immediate or delayed loading strategies.

The process model is very essential for the model based control design. The model of the process can be identified using system identification algorithm. The system identification is done through the open loop and closed loop approaches. In this work, the lab scale conical tank setup configured as a non square MIMO system. The conical tank system is identified through the both appraoches, the effectiveness and need of the both approaces are discussed. Based on the open loop identified model the controller designed and the controller implemented in the real time the to record the process data. From this data the closed loop identification are conducted uisng N4SID algorithm. The controller seetings are obtained using the smith predcitor based IMC based PI controller for the obtained model. The proposed identification algorithm and controller tuning show the better reults over the conventional method. Moreover, this method is applicable for all the non square MIMO system.

The increasing spatial and spectral resolution of hyperspectral imagers yields detailed spectroscopy measurements from both space-based and airborne platforms. Machine learning algorithms have achieved state-of-the-art material classification performance on benchmark hyperspectral data sets; however, these techniques often do not consider varying atmospheric conditions experienced in a real-world detection scenario. To reduce the impact of atmospheric effects in the at-sensor signal, atmospheric compensation must be performed. Radiative Transfer (RT) modeling can generate high-fidelity atmospheric estimates at detailed spectral resolutions, but is often too time-consuming for real-time detection scenarios. This research utilizes machine learning methods to perform dimension reduction on the transmittance, upwelling radiance, and downwelling radiance (TUD) data to create high accuracy atmospheric estimates with lower computational cost than RT modeling. The utility of this approach is investigated using the instrument line shape for the Mako long-wave infrared hyperspectral sensor. This study employs physics-based metrics and loss functions to identify promising dimension reduction techniques. As a result, TUD vectors can be produced in real-time allowing for atmospheric compensation across diverse remote sensing scenarios.

Outbreaks of Ebola ebolavirus (EBOV) have been associated with high morbidity and mortality. Milestones have been reached recently in the management of EBOV disease (EVD) with licensure of an EBOV vaccine and two monoclonal antibody therapies. However, neither vaccines nor therapies are available for other disease-causing filoviruses. In preparation for such outbreaks, and for more facile and cost-effective management of EVD, we seek a cocktail containing orally available and room temperature stable drugs with strong activity against multiple filoviruses. We previously showed that (bepridil + sertraline) and (sertraline + toremifene) synergistically suppress EBOV in cell cultures. Here we describe steps towards testing these combinations in a mouse model of EVD. We identified a vehicle suitable for oral delivery of the component drugs and determined that, thus formulated the drugs are equally active against EBOV as preparations in DMSO, and they maintain activity upon storage in solution for up to seven days. Pharmacokinetic (PK) studies indicated that the drugs in the oral delivery vehicle are well tolerated in mice at the highest doses tested. Collectively the data support advancement of these combinations to tests for synergy in a mouse model of EVD. Moreover, mathematical modeling based on human oral PK projects that the combinations would be more active in humans than their component single drugs.

Object. Flooding in Ukraine is a common natural phenomenon that repeats periodically and in some cases it becomes disastrous. In an average year floods on the rivers of Volyn region take place from one to three times which extend beyond the limits of the floodplain. The floodplain of Styr river is located in the historical center of Lutsk city, that`s why issues of research and forecasting of floods are very important for a given city. Methodology. Using modern technologies of geodesy and remote sensing allows to quickly determine and predict the floodplain area of settlements. Based on the statistical data of the Volyn Regional Center for Hydrometeorology during the 7 year period 2011-2017 about water levels of the river Styr. We conducted mathematical modeling of fluctuations of water levels within the territory of Lutsk, based on creating a partial Fourier series for discrete values of middle-ten-day water levels values. The post hydrological measurements of Styr river water levels in the territory of Lutsk located on the Shevchenko Street comply with an altitude 172.87 meters. Based on the data of short-term flood forecasting in February and March, and relief data from the Department of Architecture and Urban Development of Volyn State Administration, we conducted visualization of the results using geographic information system QGIS. Results. The results of mathematical processing were the basis for geoinformation simulation of flooded areas using remote sensing data that are publicly available. Use of statistical and geospatial data in this article has great potential for further application in modeling the processes of natural and technogenic origin. Scientific novelty. The mathematical model of short-term forecasting of water levels during the flood period on the river Styr with implementation of geoinformation modeling of flooded areas using remote sensing data is proposed. Practical significance. The research results of water level changes on the Styr River and flood zones within the limits of Lutsk is proposed. The spring flood in February-March 2018, with the maximum water level 5.33 m, corresponds to an absolute mark of 178.20 m, which is forecasted in this article.

In the context of climate change in West Africa characterized by a reduction of precipitation, this study was conducted to evaluate the impact of climate change on water resources from now to the end of the 21st century in the transboundary watershed of the Sassandra River shared by Guinea and Côte d’Ivoire. Historical and future climate (Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios) data were projected with the model. The Abdus Salam ICTP RegCM4 was used. The hydrological modeling of the river basin was carried out with the conceptual hydrological model, GR2M. This model is a monthly time steps model that allows the assessment of the discharge of the Sassandra River for each climate scenario according to the 2030 (2021–2040), 2050 (2041–2060), 2070 (2061–2080), and 2090 (2081–2100) horizons. The results showed a reduction of the annual discharge when compared to the baseline (1961–1980). For the RCP 4.5, the observed values went from –1.2% in 2030 to –2.3% in 2070 and rose to –2.1% in 2090. Concerning the RCP 8.5, we saw a variation from –4.2% to –7.9% in the 2030 and 2090 horizons, respectively. With the general decrease of rainfall in West Africa, it is appropriate to assess the impact on water resources on the largest rivers (Niger, Gambia, and Senegal) that irrigate the Sahelo-Saharian zone.

Whenever vegetated areas are monitored over time, phenological changes in land cover should be decoupled from changes in acquisition conditions, like atmospheric components, sun and satellite heights, and imaging instrument. This especially holds when the multispectral (MS) bands are sharpened for spatial resolution enhancement by means of a panchromatic (Pan) image of higher resolution, a process referred to as pansharpening. In this paper, we provide evidence that pansharpening of visible/near-infrared (VNIR) bands takes advantage from a correction of the path radiance term introduced by the atmosphere, during the fusion process. This holds whenever the fusion mechanism emulates the radiative transfer model ruling the acquisition of the Earth’s surface from space, that is, for methods exploiting a multiplicative, or contrast-based, injection model of spatial details extracted from the panchromatic (Pan) image into the interpolated multispectral (MS) bands. The path radiance should be estimated and subtracted from each band before the product by Pan is accomplished. Both empirical and model-based estimation techniques of MS path radiances are compared within the framework of optimized algorithms. Simulations carried out on two GeoEye-1 observations of the same agricultural landscape at different dates highlight that the de-hazing of MS before fusion is beneficial for an accurate detection of seasonal changes in the scene, as measured by the normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI).

Additive manufacturing (AM) is an attractive technology for manufacturing industry due to flexibility in design and functionality, but inconsistency in quality is one of the major limitations that does not allow utilizing this technology for production of end-use parts. Prediction of mechanical properties can be one of the possible ways to improve the repeatability of the results. The part placement, part orientation, and STL model properties (number of mesh triangles, surface, and volume) are used to predict tensile modulus, nominal stress and elongation at break for polyamide 2200 (also known as PA12). EOS P395 polymer powder bed fusion system was used to fabricate 217 specimens in two identical builds (434 specimens in total). Prediction is performed for XYZ, XZY, ZYX, and Angle orientations separately, and all orientations together. The different non-linear models based on machine learning methods have higher prediction accuracy compared with linear regression models. Linear regression models have prediction accuracy higher than 80% only for Tensile Modulus and Elongation at break in Angle orientation. Since orientation-based modeling has low prediction accuracy due to a small number of data points and lack of information about material properties, these models need to be improved in the future based on additional experimental work.

The sun bear is conservation mammal in Indonesia. The ecological problems as conflict among mammals and human often happen around wildlife, the one of the case is the conflict between sun bear (helarctos malayanus) with human. In Pasaman where around the anthropogenic landscape is bounded by natural forest as sun bear habitat. In this decade, the story has recorded about ±16 incidents. The aim of this research is to geospatial modeling the area of potential conflict between sun bear- human. The method in this research is to use natural logarithmic and regression logistic. The tool is geographical information system and maximum entropy. The result of this research, there has found the distribute energy each variable landscape ecosystem. The statistical model of the potential conflict it has spread on landscape ecosystem. The average value of AUC prediction in this model is at number of 0.91. The variable contribution which affect are forest edge at number of 39.2%, the alternative food (plantation) at number of 31.4%, and forest fragmentation at number of 16.9%.

The present paper deals with the stochastic modeling of bio-colonization for the computation of stochastic hydrodynamic loading on jacket-type offshore structures. It relies on a multidisciplinary study gathering biological and physical research fields that accounts of uncertainties at all the levels. Indeed, bio-colonization of offshore structures is a complex phenomenon with two major but distinct domains (i) marine biology whose processes are modeled with biomathematics methods and (ii) hydrodynamic processes. This paper aims to connect these two domains. It proposes a stochastic model for the marine organism’s growth and then continues with transfers for assessment of drag coefficient and forces probability density functions that accounts for marine growth evolution. A case study relies on the characteristics (growth and shape) of the blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) in northeastern Atlantic.

The Ituri-Epulu-Aru landscape (IEAL) is experiencing deforestation and forest degradation. This deforestation is at the root of many environmental disturbances in a region characterized by endemism in biodiversity. This article focuses on the triangulation of spatialized prospective scenarios in order to identify future trajectories based on the knowledge of historical dynamics through the diachronic analysis of three satellite images (2003-2010-2014-2016). The scenarios were de-signed in a supervised model implemented in the DINAMICA EGO platform. The three scenarios Business-As-Usual (BAU), Rapid Economic Growth (REG) and Sustainable Management of the Environment (SME), extrapolating current trends, show that by 2061 this landscape will always be dominated forests (+ 84%). Old-growth forests occupy 74.2% of the landscape area in the BAU scenario, 81.4% in the SEM scenario and 61.2% in the REG scenario. The SEM scenario gives hope that restoration and preservation of biodiversity priority habitats is still possible if policy makers become aware of it.

Additive manufacturing (AM) are used in several industries such as automotive, aerospace, and medical sciences. One of the most common devices used in additive manufacturing is fused deposition modeling (FDM) 3D printers. This fabrication method has different inputs that affect the quality of the parts. In this research, the bending fatigue properties of polylactic acid (PLA) biomaterial made with a 3D printer are investigated. To demonstrate the influence of printing parameters on fatigue lifetime, standard specimens with nozzle diameters of 0.2-0.6 mm, extruder temperature of 180-240°C, and print speed of 5-15 mm/s were printed. After performing fully-reversed bending fatigue tests, it was found that printed specimens at 180°C have the best fatigue lifetime in most cases. Accordingly, fatigue behavior improved by reducing the nozzle diameter. Printing at lower temperatures also improved fatigue lifetime. The printing speed affected the slope of the S-N diagram, known as the fatigue strength exponent.

Boiler efficiency is called to some extent of total thermal energy which can be recovered from the fuel. Boiler efficiency losses are due to four major factors: the dry gas flux, the latent heat of steam in the flue gas, the combustion loss or the loss of unburned fuel, radiation and convection losses. In this research, the thermal behavior of boilers in gas refinery facilities is studied and their efficiency and their losses are calculated. The main part of this research is comprised of analyzing the effect of various parameters on efficiency such as excess air, fuel moisture, air humidity, fuel and air temperature, the temperature of combustion gases, and thermal value of the fuel. Based on the obtained results, it is possible to analyze and make recommendations for optimizing boilers in the gas refinery complex using response-surface method (RSM).

Modern agent-based models (ABM) and other simulation models require evaluation and testing of many different parameters. Managing that testing for large scale parameter sweeps (grid searches) as well as storing simulation data requires multiple, potentially customizable steps that may vary across simulations. Furthermore, parameter testing, processing, and analysis are slowed if simulation and processing jobs cannot be shared across teammates or computational resources. While high-performance computing (HPC) has become increasingly available, models can often be tested faster through the use of multiple computers and HPC resources. To address these issues, we created the Distributed Automated Parameter Testing (DAPT) Python package. By hosting parameters in an online (and often free) "database", multiple individuals can run parameter sets simultaneously in a distributed fashion, enabling ad hoc crowdsourcing of computational power. Combining this with a flexible, scriptable tool set, teams can evaluate models and assess their underlying hypotheses quickly. Here we describe DAPT and provide an example demonstrating its use.

Sea-level rise is a problem increasingly affecting coastal areas worldwide. The existence of Free and Open-Source Models to estimate the sea-level impact can contribute to better coastal man-agement. This study aims to develop and to validate two different models to predict the sea-level rise impact supported by Google Earth Engine (GEE) – a cloud-based platform for planetary-scale environmental data analysis. The first model is a Bathtub Model based on the uncertainty of projections of the Sea-level Rise Impact Module of TerrSet - Geospatial Monitoring and Modeling System software. The validation process performed in the Rio Grande do Sul coastal plain (S Brazil) resulted in correlations from 0.75 to 1.00. The second model uses Bruun Rule formula implemented in GEE and is capable to determine the coastline retreat of a profile through the creation of a simple vector line from topo-bathymetric data. The model shows a very high cor-relation (0.97) with a classical Bruun Rule study performed in Aveiro coast (NW Portugal). The GEE platform seems to be an important tool for coastal management. The models developed have been openly shared, enabling the continuous improvement of the code by the scientific commu-nity.

Megacities are complex systems facing the challenges of overpopulation, poor urban design and planning, poor mobility and public transport, poor governance, climate change issues, poor sewerage and water infrastructure, waste and health issues, and unemployment. Smart cities have emerged to address these challenges by making the best use of space and resources for the benefit of citizens. A smart city model views the city as a complex adaptive system consisting of services, resources, and citizens that learn through interaction and change in both the spatial and temporal domains. The characteristics of dynamic development and complexity are key issues for city planners that require a new systematic and modeling approach. Multiscale modeling (MM) is an approach that can be used to better understand complex adaptive systems. The MM aims to solve complex problems at different scales, i.e., micro, meso, and macro, to improve system efficiency and mitigate computational complexity and cost. In this paper, we present an overview of MM in smart cities. First, this study discusses megacities, their current challenges, and their emergence to smart cities. Then, we discuss the need of MM in smart cities and its emerging applications. Finally, the study highlights current challenges and future directions related to MM in smart cities, which provide a roadmap for the optimized operation of smart city systems.

Selective laser melting is an emerging Additive Manufacturing (AM) technology for metals. Intricate three-dimensional parts can be generated from the powder bed by selectively melting the desired location of the powders. The process is repeated for each layer until the part is built. The necessary heat is provided by a laser. Temperature magnitude and history during SLM directly determine the molten pool dimensions, thermal stress, residual stress, balling effect, and dimensional accuracy. Laser-matter interaction is a crucial physical phenomenon in the SLM process. In this paper, five different heat source models are introduced to predict the three-dimensional temperature field analytically. These models are known as steady state moving point heat source, transient moving point heat source, semi-elliptical moving heat source, double elliptical moving heat source, and uniform moving heat source. The analytical temperature model for all of the heat source models are solved using three-dimensional differential equation of heat conduction with different approaches. The Steady state and transient moving heat source are solved using separation of variables approach. However, the rest of models are solved by employing the Green’s functions. Due to the high magnitude of the temperature in the presence of the laser, the temperature gradient is usually high which has a substantial impact on thermal material properties. Consequently, the temperature field is predicted by considering the temperature sensitivity thermal material properties. Moreover, due to the repeated heating and cooling, the part usually undergoes several melting and solidification cycles, this physical phenomenon is considered by modifying the heat capacity using latent heat of melting. Furthermore, the multi-layer aspect of metal AM process is considered by incorporating the temperature history from the previous layer since the interaction of the layers have an impact on heat transfer mechanisms. The proposed temperature field models based on different heat source approaches are validated using experimental measurement of melt pool geometry from independent experimentations. The detailed explanation of the comparison of models is also provided. Moreover, the effect of process parameters on the balling effect is also discussed.

The transition from Building Information Modelling (BIM) to Heritage Building Information Modelling (H-BIM) is intended to pursue an adequate knowledge of the artefact that is to be preserved, progressively replacing the traditional methods of the restoration and structural reinforcement projects with new tools for managing both existing information and new interventions. The aim of the paper is to show the application of the H-BIM method to a stone pavement road located in the Archaeological Site of Pompeii. In detail, starting from a Laser Scanner based survey, juxtaposed by coordinated points georeferenced through a total station, points clouds were handled by means of several BIM-based tools to perform the road design process, starting from the digital elevation model (DEM) to the corridor representation. Subsequently, a visual programming application based on Python language was adopted to update corridor information by means of the object property set. As preliminary results, a tool, complete with graphical and non-graphical information, is proposed to be used in conservation, maintenance and restoration project.

Flooding and overflows are recurring problems in several Brazilian cities, which usually undergo disorderly development. Their causes vary from increased impervious surface areas, deficiency/inefficiency of drainage structures and their maintenance, siltation of rivers, channel obstructions, and climatic factors. This situation is aggravated in the major cities. The Anhangabau watershed lies in the central portion of the city of Sao Paulo – Brazil and covers a drainage area of 5.4 km². The region is highly urbanized and crossed by a major north-south road connection. During heavy rain events, portions of this interconnection passage become compromised, disrupting the flow of vehicles, creating a chaotic situation for the population, as well as losses to the national economy. Observed rainfall records and an existing IDF (intensity duration frequency) curve for the region are used to obtain design storms. To account for climate change, a well know procedure, the equidistance quantile matching method for updating IDF curves under climate change, was applied to the existing historical data. Several different global climate models (GCM) and one regional model were applied to obtain and update rainfall design storm. The GCMs and future scenarios used were from the IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5) and two future projections: RCP (representative concentration pathway) 4.5 and 8.5. Alternatives previously proposed to solve to flooding issue are briefly reviewed. On one of the latest studies [1], a few modern concepts of water resources management are presented, and the linear retention measure was found to offer higher potential to mitigate the flooding problem in the lower valley of the watershed. Therefore, this alternative was used to evaluate different design storms scenarios combined with return periods of 25 and 100-years as well as the updated IDF under climate change for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. To model the complex network, representing both road and drainage systems and their interconnections, PCSWMM/SWMM software was applied. Results are presented as flooding maps and show the impacts of the proposed linear retention measure based on the existing IDF curves and the updated IDF curves under climate change for two different drainage system conditions, current and improved with the use of linear retention reservoirs. Results show that the prosed changes on the drainage system help reduce the risk and damage to flooding. The climate change scenarios, however, impose a significant threat and need immediate attention from city planners and stakeholders.

SGLT2 inhibitors act to induce glucosuria and have been shown to be efficacious in the treatment of type II diabetes mellitus but have also been shown to positively affect cardiovascular conditions and some benefitting kidney function. SGLT2i have shown to be effective in more advanced conditions but may eventually be a treatment in more general metabolic dysfunction. Metabolic syndrome is a clinical diagnosis for establishing risk for ischemic heart disease and diabetes. The prevalence of type II diabetes mellitus, heart disease, and severe vascular events steadily increased over recent decades. In addition to the established benefits of diet and exercise, SGLT2 inhibitor therapy may be able to aid in the treatment of metabolic syndrome from its proven cardiovascular and anti-hyperglycemic benefits. Pharmacologic modeling in canines is also considered, as they present with similar diagnoses and offer a model that shares many of the characteristics of humans in metabolic dysfunction.

There is a growing need for an area-wide knowledge of SOC contents in agricultural soils at field scale for food security, monitoring long-term changes related to soil health and climate change. In Germany, large-scale SOC maps are mostly available with a spatial resolution of 250 m to 1 km2. The nationwide availability of both digital elevation models at various spatial resolutions and multi-temporal satellite imagery enables the derivation of multi-scale terrain attributes and Landsat-based multi-temporal soil reflectance composites (SRC) as explanatory variables. On the example of an Bavarian test of about 8000 km2, the scale-specific dependencies between the representativeness of 220 soil samples and different aggregation levels of the explanatory variables were analyzed for their scale-specific predictive power. The aggregation levels were generated by applying a region-growing segmentation procedure, the SOC content prediction was realized by the Random Forest algorithm. In doing so, established approaches of (geographic) object-based image analysis (GEOBIA) and machine learning were combined. The modeling results revealed scale-specific differences. Compared to terrain attributes, the use of SRC parameters lead to a significant model improvement at large field-related scale levels. The joint use of both terrain attributes and SRC parameters resulted in further model improvements. The best modeling variant is characterized by an accuracy of R2=0.84 and RMSE=1.99.

Filter Media (FM) sourced from recycled organic and mineral material offers a low cost and effective means of treating urban stormwater. Using recycled materials rather than from an increasingly scarce source of virgin materials (typically sandy loam soil) can ensure a sustainable long-term economy and environment. This paper presents results from the laboratory analysis and mathematical modeling to highlight the performance of recycled organic and mineral material in removing nutrients and metals from stormwater. Analysis included physical and chemical characterisation such as particle size distribution, saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat), bulk density, effective cation exchange capacity, and pollutant removal performance. Design mixes (DM), comprising a combination of organic and mineral materials, were characterised and used to develop/derive modelling design within the Model for Urban Stormwater Improvement Conceptualisation (MUSIC v6) [1]. Comparison is made to the Adoption Guidelines for Stormwater Biofiltration Systems - Summary Report [2] which were based on the Facility for Advancing Water Biofiltration (FAWB) guidelines to assist in the development of biofiltration systems, including the planning, design, construction and operation of those systems. An observed outcome from over two decades of biofiltration guideline development has been the exclusion of alternative biofilter materials due to claims of excessive leaching. Results from this study indicate that high nutrient and metal removal rates can be achieved over a range of hydraulic conductivities using design mixes of recycled organic and mineral materials that have a demonstrated equivalence to existing guideline specifications.

This work presents some characteristics of MoNet, a computerized platform for the modeling and visualization of complex systems. Emphasis is on the ideas that allowed the successful progressive development of this modeling platform, which goes along with the implementation of applications to the modeling of several studied systems. The platform has the capacity to represent different aspects of systems modeled at different observation scales. This tool offers advantages in the sense of favoring the perception of the phenomenon of the emergence of information, associated with changes of scale. Some criteria used for the construction of this modeling platform are included. The power of current computers has made practical representing graphic resources such as shapes, line thickness, overlaying-text tags, colors and transparencies, in the graphical modeling of systems made up of many elements. By visualizing diagrams conveniently designed to highlight contrasts, these modeling platforms allow the recognition of patterns that drive our understanding of systems and their structure. Graphs that reflect the benefits of the tool regarding the visualization of systems at different scales of observation are presented to illustrate the application of the platform.

Intercellular transport of auxin is driven by PIN-formed (PIN) proteins. PINs are localized at the plasma membrane (PM) and on constitutively recycling endomembrane vesicles. Therefore, PINs can mediate auxin transport either by direct translocation across the PM or by pumping it into secretory vesicles (SVs), leading to its secretory release upon fusion with the PM. Which of these two mechanisms dominates is a matter of debate. Here we addressed the issue with a mathematical modeling approach. We demonstrate that the efficiency of secretory transport depends on SV size, half-life of PINs on the PM, pH, exocytosis frequency and PIN density. 3D-SIM microscopy was used to determine PIN density on the PM. Combing this data with published values of the other parameters, we show that the transport activity of PINs in SVs would have to be at least 1000x greater than on the PM in order to produce a comparable macroscopic auxin transport. If both transport mechanisms operated simultaneously and PINs were equally active on SVs and PM, the contribution of secretion to the total auxin flux would be negligible. In conclusion, while secretory vesicle-mediated transport of auxin is intriguing and theoretically possible model, it unlikely to be a major mechanism of auxin transport in planta.

Despite recent developments in monitoring and visualizing construction progress, the data exchange between construction jobsite and office lacks automation and real-time recording. To address this issue, a near real-time construction work inspection system called iVR is proposed; this system integrates 3D scanning, extended reality, and visual programming to visualize interactive onsite inspection for indoor activities and provide numeric data. iVR comprises five modules: iVR-location finder (finding laser scanner located in the construction site) iVR-scan (capture point cloud data of jobsite indoor activity), iVR-prepare (processes and convert 3D scan data into a 3D model), iVR-inspect (conduct immersive visual reality inspection in construction office), and iVR-feedback (visualize inspection feedback from jobsite using augmented reality). An experimental lab test is conducted to validate the applicability of iVR process; it successfully exchanges required information between construction jobsite and office in a specific time. This system is expected to assist Engineers and workers in quality assessment, progress assessments, and decision-making which can realize a productive and practical communication platform, unlike conventional monitoring or data capturing, processing, and storage methods, which involve storage, compatibility, and time-consumption issues.

It is challenging to apply heat flow through a thermal bridge, which requires the analysis of 2D or 3D heat transfer to building energy simulation(BES). Research on the dynamic analysis of thermal bridges has been underway for many years, but their utilization remains low in BESs. This paper proposes a thermal bridge modeling and a dynamic analysis method that can be easily applied to BESs. The main idea begins with an analogy of the steady-state analysis of thermal bridges. As with steady-state analysis, the proposed method first divides the thermal bridge into a clear wall, where the heat flow is uniform, and the sections that are not the clear wall (the thermal bridge part). For the clear wall part, the method used in existing BESs is applied and analyzed. The thermal bridge part (TB part) is modeled with the linear time-invariant system (LTI system) and the system identification process is performed to find the transfer function. Then, the heat flow is obtained via a linear combination of the two parts. This method is validated by comparing the step, sinusoidal and annual outdoor temperature response of the finite differential method(FDM) simulation. When the thermal bridge was modeled as a third-order model, the root mean square error(RMSE) of annual heat flow with the FDM solution of heat flow through the entire wall was about 0.1W.

Wave energy converter (WEC) arrays deployed in coastal regions may create physical disturbances potentially resulting in environmental stresses. Presently, limited information is available on the nature of these physical disturbance or the resultant effects. A quantitative Spatial Environmental Assessment Tool (SEAT) for evaluating potential effects of wave energy converter (WEC) arrays on nearshore hydrodynamics and sediment transport is presented for the central Oregon coast (USA) through coupled numerical model simulations of an array of WECs. Derived climatological wave conditions were used as inputs to the model to allow for the calculation of risk metrics associated with various hydrodynamic and sediment transport variables such as maximum shear stress, bottom velocity, and change in bed elevation. The risk maps provided simple, quantitative, and spatially-resolved means of evaluating physical changes in the vicinity of a hypothetical WEC array in response to varying wave conditions. Near-field risk of sediment mobility was determined to be moderate in the lee of the densely spaced array, where the potential for increased sediment deposition could result in benthic habitat alteration. Modifications to the nearshore sediment deposition and erosion patterns were observed near headlands and topographic features, which could have implications for littoral sediment transport. The results illustrate the benefits of a risk evaluation tool for facilitating coastal resource management at early market marine renewable energy sites.

Design and advancement of the durable urban train infrastructures are of utmost importance for reliable mobility in the smart cities of the future. Given the importance of urban train lines, tunnels, and subway stations, these structures should be meticulously analyzed. In this research, two-dimensional modeling and analysis of the soil-structure mass of the Alan Dasht station of Mashhad Urban Train are studied. The two-dimensional modeling was conducted using Hashash’s method and displacement interaction. After calculating the free-field resonance and side distortion of the soil mass, this resonance was entered into PLAXIS finite element program, and finally, stress and displacement contours together with the bending moment, shear force and axial force curves of the structure were obtained.

If the development of machine learning and artificial intelligence plays a role in many fields of research and technology today, it has a special relationship with neurosciences. Indeed, historically inspired by our knowledge of the brain, deep learning shares some vocabularies with neurosciences and can sometimes be considered a brain’s model. Taking the particular example of epileptic seizure, which can develop in any biological neural tissue, we raise the question if and how the models used for deep learning can capture or model these pathological events. This particular example is a starting point to discuss the nature, limits, and functions of these models, and what we expect from a model of the brain. Finally, we argue that a pluralistic approach leading to the integrated coexistence of different models is necessary to study the brain in all its complexity.

Auxin and ethylene pathways cooperatively regulate a variety of developmental processes in plants. Growth responses to ethylene are largely dependent on auxin, the key regulator of plant morphogenesis. Auxin, in turn, is capable of inducing ethylene biosynthesis and signaling making the interaction of these hormones reciprocal. Recent studies discovered a bunch of molecular events underlying auxin-ethylene crosstalk. In this review, we summarize the results of fine-scale and large-scale experiments on interaction of auxin and ethylene pathways in Arabidopsis. We integrate the knowledge on the molecular crosstalk events, their tissue specificity and associated phenotypic responses to decipher the crosstalk mechanisms at a systems level. We also discuss the prospects of applying systems biology approaches to study the mechanisms of crosstalk between plant hormones.

Project complexity is usually considered as one of main causes of cost overruns, resulting in poor performance and thus project failure. However, empirical studies focused on evaluating its effects on project cost remain lacking. Given this circumstance, this study attempts to develop the relationships between project cost and the multidimensional project complexity elements. We establish complexity as a multidimensional factor including the task, organization, market, legal, and environment complexities. This study uses an empirical evidence-based structural model to account for the relationships between project cost and project complexity. By doing so, a quantitative assessment of multi-dimensional project complexity has been developed. The findings suggest that task and organization complexities have direct effects on project cost, while market, legal and external environment complexities have indirect effects on project cost. The practical contribution is that the findings can improve the understanding of which dimension of complexity significantly influence project cost, and the need to focus efforts on strategically addressing that complexities.

olten salt reactors (MSRs) utilize salts as coolant or as the fuel and coolant together with fissile isotopes dissolved in the salt. It is necessary to therefore understand the behavior of the salts to effectively design, operate, and regulate such reactors, and thus there is a need for thermodynamic models for the salt systems. Molten salts, however, are difficult to represent as they exhibit short range order that is dependent on both composition and temperature. A widely useful approach is the modified quasichemical model in the quadruplet approximation that provides for consideration of first and second nearest neighbor coordination and interactions. Its use in the CALPHAD ap-proach to system modeling requires fitting parameters using standard thermodynamic data such as phase equilibria, heat capacity, and others. Shortcoming of the model is its inability to directly vary coordination numbers with composition or temperature. Another issue is the difficulty in fitting model parameters using regression methods without already having very good initial values. The proposed paper will discuss these issues and note some practical methods for the effective genera-tion of useful models.

Human exposure to infectious aerosols results a transmission of diseases, such as influenza, tuberculosis, and COVID-19. Most dental procedures generate a significant number of aerosolized particles, increasing transmission risk in dental settings. Since the generation of aerosols in dentistry is unavoidable, many clinics started using intervention strategies such as area-filtration units and extraoral evacuation equipment, especially under the relatively recent constraints of the pandemics. However, the effectiveness of these devices in dental operatories has not been studied. Therefore, the dental personnel's ability to position and operate such instruments efficiently is also limited. To address these challenges, we utilized a real-time sensor network for assessment of aerosol dynamics during dental restoration and cleaning producers with and without intervention. The strategies tested during the procedures were (i) local area high-efficiency particle air (HEPA) filters and (ii) extra-oral suction device (EOSD). The study was conducted at the University of Washington School of Dentistry using a network of thirteen fixed sensors positioned within the operatory and one wearable sensor worn by the dental operator. The sensor network provides time and space-resolved particulate matter (PM) data. Three-dimensional (3D) visualization informs aerosol persistence in the operatory. It was found that area filters did not improve the overall aerosol concentration in dental offices significantly. An average of 16% decrease in PM concentration was observed when EOSD equipment was used during the procedures. The combination of real-time sensors and 3D visualization can provide dental personnel and facility mangers with actionable feedback to effectively assess aerosol transmission in medical settings and develop evidence-based intervention strategies.

Full-order state-space models represent the starting point for the development of advanced control methods for wind turbine systems (WTSs). Regarding existing control-oriented WTS models, two research gaps must be noted: (i) There exists no full-order WTS model in form of one overall ordinary differential equation that considers all dynamical effects which significantly influence the electrical power output; (ii) all existing reduced-order WTS models are subject to rather arbitrary simplifications and are not validated against a full-order model. Therefore, in this paper, two full-order nonlinear state-space models (of 11th and 9th-order in the (a, b, c)- and (d, q)-reference frame, resp.) for variable-speed variable-pitch permanent magnet synchronous generator WTSs are derived. The full-order models cover all relevant dynamical effects with significant impact on the system’s power output, including the switching behavior of the power electronic devices. Based on the full-order models, by a step-by-step model reduction procedure, two reduced-order WTS models are deduced: A non-switching (averaging) 7th-order WTS model and a non-switching 3rd-order WTS model. Comparative simulation results reveal that all models capture the dominant system dynamics properly. The full-order models allow for a detailed analysis covering the high frequency oscillations in the instantaneous power output due to the switching in the power converters. The reduced-order models provide a time-averaged instantaneous power output (which still correctly reflects the energy produced by the WTS) and come with a drastically reduced complexity making those models appropriate for large-scale power grid controller design.

In this paper, we introduce the Prognostics and Health Management of gear bearing system using autoencoder neural networks. Bearings and gears are the most common mechanical components in rotating machines, and their health conditions are of great concern in practice. This study presents an outlier modeling method for forecasting the gear bearing system failure using the health indicators constructed from mechanical signal processing and modeling. Outlier modeling aims to find patterns in data that are significantly different from what is defined as normal. In the unsupervised outlier modeling setting, prior labels about the anomalousness of data points are not available. In such cases, the most common techniques for scoring data points for outlyingness include distance-based methods density-based methods, and linear methods. The conventional outlier modeling methods have been used for a long time to detect anomalous observations in data. However, this paper shows that autoencoders are a very competitive technique compared to other existing methods. The developed method is demonstrated using the IMS bearing data from NASA Acoustics and Vibration Database.

Discovery of inhibitors for endothelial-related transcription factors can contribute to the development of angiogenic therapies that treat diseases ranging from cardiovascular to cancer. The role of transcription factor Vezf1 in vascular development and regulation of angiogenesis has been defined by several earlier studies. Through construction of a computational model for Vezf1, work here has identified a novel small molecule drug capable of inhibiting Vezf1 from binding to its cognate DNA binding site. Using structure-based design and virtual screening of the NCI Diversity Compound Library, 12 shortlisted compounds were tested for their ability to interfere with the binding of Vezf1 to DNA using electrophoretic gel mobility shift assays. We identified one compound, T4, which has an IC50 of 20uM. Using murine endothelial cells, MSS31, we tested the effect of T4 on endothelial cell viability and angiogenesis by using tube formation assay. Our data show that addition of T4 in cell culture medium does not affect cell viability at concentrations lower or equal to its IC 50 but strongly inhibits the network formation by MSS31 in the tube formation assays. Given its potential efficacy, this inhibitor has significant therapeutic potential in several human diseases raging from wound healing to cancer.

Aim of this research paper is to introduce a novel method of hybrid orthodontic tooth-borne distalizer treatment of class II malocclusion by using 3D printed biocompatible personalized distalizer. Explains 3D designing, printing and clinical application of individualized biocompatible medical device dedicated for orthodontic teeth distalization. Compares such distalizer manufactured from two different biocompatible photopolymers (white and transparent). Evaluates their clinical performance and also patients’ aesthetical perception. Clinical part includes comparison of treatment debonding on the set of 12 complete orthodontic treatments with uni-lateral class II malocclusion managed with hybrid approach (CAT-Invisalign with 3D printed distalizer). Paper offers an evaluation of the personalized distalizer functioning in regard to current publications and comparison to conventional prefabricated alternatives like Carriere® Distalizer™ appliance. Results showed no significance of material differences on clinical performance of such individualized distalizers. Research showed preference of patients towards transparent biocompatible photopolymer instead of white A2 shade.

Virtual screening - predicting which compounds within a specified compound library bind to a target molecule, typically a protein - is a fundamental task in the field of drug discovery. Doing virtual screening well provides tangible practical benefits, including reduced drug development costs, faster time to therapeutic viability, and fewer unforeseen side effects. As with most applied computational tasks, the algorithms currently used to perform virtual screening feature inherent tradeoffs between speed and accuracy. Furthermore, even theoretically rigorous, computationally intensive methods may fail to account for important effects relevant to whether a given compound will ultimately be usable as a drug. Here we investigate the virtual screening performance of the recently released Gnina molecular docking software, which uses deep convolutional networks to score protein-ligand structures. We find, on average, that Gnina outperforms conventional empirical scoring. The default scoring in Gnina outperforms the empirical AutoDock Vina scoring function on 89 of the 117 targets of the DUD-E and LIT-PCBA virtual screening benchmarks with a median 1% early enrichment factor that is more than twice that of Vina. However, we also find that issues of bias linger in these sets, even when not used directly to train models, and this bias obfuscates to what extent machine learning models are achieving their performance through a sophisticated interpretation of molecular interactions versus fitting to non-informative simplistic property distributions.

Sea-level rise is a problem increasingly affecting coastal areas worldwide. The existence 15 of Free and Open-Source Models to estimate the sea-level impact can contribute to better coastal 16 management. This study aims to develop and to validate two different models to predict the 17 sea-level rise impact supported by Google Earth Engine (GEE) – a cloud-based platform for plan-18 etary-scale environmental data analysis. The first model is a Bathtub Model based on the uncer-19 tainty of projections of the Sea-level Rise Impact Module of TerrSet - Geospatial Monitoring and 20 Modeling System software. The validation process performed in the Rio Grande do Sul coastal 21 plain (S Brazil) resulted in correlations from 0.75 to 1.00. The second model uses Bruun Rule for-22 mula implemented in GEE and is capable to determine the coastline retreat of a profile through the 23 creation of a simple vector line from topo-bathymetric data. The model shows a very high correla-24 tion (0.97) with a classical Bruun Rule study performed in Aveiro coast (NW Portugal). The GEE 25 platform seems to be an important tool for coastal management. The models developed have been 26 openly shared, enabling the continuous improvement of the code by the scientific community.

For water-stressed regions like Iran improving the effectiveness and productivity of agricultural water-use is of utmost importance due to climate change and unsustainable demands. Therefore, a hydro-economic model has been developed here for the Zarrine River Basin with the central concept of that demands are value-sensitive functions, where quantities of water-uses at different locations and times have a changeable economic benefits. To do this, the potential crop yields and the surface and groundwater resources, especially Boukan Dam inflow are simulated using the hydrologic model, SWAT, based on predicted climatic scenarios i.e. quantile mapping-downscaled projections. Then, to allocate the agricultural water based on the agro- economic crop water productivity (AEWP) of crops, a basin-wide water management tool, MODSIM, is customized. Next, a simulation- optimization model has been developed using a coupled CSPSO-MODSIM, to optimize the total AEWP, considering climatic impact and crop pattern scenarios, for 2020-2038, 2050-2068 and 2080-2098 periods. Finally, the optimum crop pattern and crop water irrigation depths are presented for different RCPs and periods. The results indicated that this approach will improve considerably the AEWPs and decrease the agricultural water-use up to 40%. Thus, this integrated model is able to support water authorities and other stakeholder in a water-scarce basin, as is the study area.

The emergence of the COVID-19 outbreak has caused a pandemic situation in over 210 countries. Controlling the spread of this disease has proven difficult despite several resources employed. Millions of hospitalization and deaths have been observed, and thousands of cases daily with many measures in place. Due to the complex nature of COVID-19, we proposed a system of time-fractional equations to understand the transmission of the disease better. Nonlocality involved in the model has made fractional differential equations appropriate for modeling the behavior. However, solving these types of models is computationally demanding. Our proposed generalized compartmental COVID-19 model incorporates effective contact rate, transition rate (from exposed quarantine and recovered to susceptible and infected quarantined individuals), quarantine rate, disease-induced death rate, natural death rate, natural recovery rate, recovery rate of quarantine infected for a holistic study of the coronavirus disease. A detailed analysis of the proposed model is carried out, including the existence and uniqueness of solutions, local and global stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium analysis, and sensitivity analysis. Furthermore, numerical solutions of the proposed model are obtained with the generalized Adam-Bashforth-Moulton method developed for the fractional order model. Our analysis and solutions profile show that each of these incorporated parameters is very important in controlling the spread of COVID-19, especially quarantining exposed and infected individuals and the effective contact rate. Based on the results with different fractional order, we observe that there seems to be a third or even fourth wave of the spike in cases of COVID-19, which is what is happening right now in many countries.