A GIS-based framework for optimizing site selection of new cities in the State of Kuwait: A study in Environmental geomorphology

The State of Kuwait seeks sustainable development through implementation of clear and specific urban plans, some of which suffer from a severe lack of geomorphological and spatially-based environmental planning, such as the use of geographic information systems (GIS). Choosing the optimal location for a city based on sound environmental planning is of the utmost importance to achieving environmental sustainability, as it can spare the State and other decision-making entities a great deal of stress in the long run. GIS, in particular, offers great potential for the environmental planner and decision-maker to choose the most appropriate places for the cities of the future, especially when coupled with geomorphological analyses. To achieve the Vision of Kuwait 2035, one of the State’s planning objectives focuses on Urban Planning for the Establishment of Environmental Cities that Achieve (UPEECA) environmental sustainability criteria. To gain a more holistic analysis related to the Vision, this study aims to: 1) Conduct suitability modelling for establishing new cities in Kuwait, 2) Assess the current 2005-2030 urban plan, and 3) Propose possible recommendations and solutions for potential urban problems. The study relies on integrating several methods to devise a framework that will aid researchers and decision-makers in selecting optimal locations for built structures based on analysis and modelling (e.g., digital elevation model, geologic mapping, geomorphology, natural hazards, heritage/archaeological sites, military areas, oil fields, soils).


INTRODUCTION
Global urban population exceeded the rural population for the first time in human history in 2007. Since then, the proportion of people living in urban areas has continued growing and projections show that by 2050 almost two-thirds of the global population will be urban [1].
Consequently, planning requires scrutiny when selecting optimal sites for (new) construction of cities. Urban geomorphology provides a variety of methodologies to assist decision-makers and researchers to address such issues related to the future of urbanization in the State of Kuwait.
Specifically, geomorphology represents a key facet when seeking to achieve goals such as reduction in natural disasters and improvement in life's quality [2]. Indeed, geomorphology is a complex science that requires multiple levels of understanding across a wide array of features and processes operating at a range of spatial and temporal scales [3]. These characteristics make geomorphology an important and effective tool to aid planners and decision-makers in low-cost environmental planning and environmental sustainability. For example, the sabkhas on Failaka Island in Kuwait constitute about 50% of the landmass [4,5] therefore, building a city or extending a road on the sabkhas areas would cost a significant amount (let alone the potential upkeep of such roads). In this case, geomorphology becomes an effective tool to choose the most appropriate and cost-effective route through the sabkhas, as well as the best location for a city. Consequently, more and more urban planning endeavors are incorporating geomorphology into their overall schemes [2,4,6,7,8,9].
Still, many environmental problems have arisen due to selection of city sites in Kuwait lacking any geomorphological analysis. For example, the city of Sabah Al-Ahmad was declared a disaster area due to the floods that resulted from large amounts of rain in November 2018 (about 250 mm), and a landslide that devastated the city of Al-Mutlaa in February 2020 [20]. Both instances could have been avoided (or at the very least, lessened considerably) by incorporating geomorphological data and other environmental data into a GIS. Utilizing such tools and information in the planning process will likely lead to the most appropriate sites for cities based on sound environmental criteria so geomorphological hazards can be avoided. Doing so, however, leads to several questions: Are future cities of Kuwait chosen suitable locations? What are the environmental problems of Kuwait cities and how can they be solved? What are the best construction areas to avoid geomorphological hazards?
Kuwait seeks, through a serious and rational vision of the political leadership, to achieve the best rates of development and progress based on the Vision 2035 framework. Implementing a multi-faceted research approach in terms of city site location and development will go a long way to help attain the Vision 2035 goals. More specifically, combining geomorphological analyses with land-use analysis could enhance attainment of these goals. A complementary technique to geomorphological and GIS-themed analysis, land-use suitability analysis has been applied to the assessment of agricultural land [11], used to determine land habitats for animal and plant species [12], revitalize landscape evaluation and planning [13], and aid in regional planning and environmental impact assessment [14,15]. Carr and Zwick [16] also employed suitability modelling to identify potential future land use conflicts in North Central Florida. Several recent studies have been used suitability modeling e.g. [17,18,19] Site suitability analysis is the process of determining the fitness of a given tract of land for a defined use [21], and to find an appropriate site for construction of an amenity or urban area, sophisticated analyses are required that consider critical components such as technical, environmental, physical, social, and economic factors [4]. Tools for identification, comparison, and analyzing multi-criterion decisions for an urban site development require proper planning and management, and often incorporate vital geospatial tools such as remote sensing, GIS, GPS, and AHP (Analytical Hierarchical Process) [22,23].
Given the above facets, this study suggests building an Environmental Analytical Hierarchical Process (EAHP) and using the weigh sum and Model Builder functions in ArcGIS, centered on an integrated technique of the AHP and GIS, to support the assessment and the selection of suitable areas for cities in the state of Kuwait. Utilizing field-based research and advanced computer modelling during 2018-2021, this paper showcases multi-criteria suitability analysis that identifies optimal locations for new cities in the State of Kuwait using a GIS-based model to delineate the most suitable sites while also taking into account the national physical plan strategy 2005-2030. Our findings can support decision-making processes in the sustainable development sector and aid in protecting the state of Kuwait from further natural risks/hazards.

Climate, geology, and geomorphology
With an approximate area of 17,818 km 2 the state of Kuwait is in the northwestern corner of the Arabian Gulf, between longitudes 46º 30` and 48º 30` east and latitudes 28º 30` and 30º 08` north [24,25],. It is bordered by the Arabian Gulf on the east, Iraq on the north and west, and by Saudi Arabia on the south. Kuwait is an arid region mainly characterized by a dry, long, and very hot summer which runs from the end of March to the end of October. The temperature varies in summer between 30 °C to 45 °C, reaching 54 °C during daytime in August. The winter in Kuwait, from early December to middle February, is short, cold, and moderately wet. The temperature in winter varies between 7 °C to 17 °C. The mean total rainfall is less than 125 mm/year, and limited from November to April [24,25,26].
In general, the surface topography of Kuwait is a rather monotonously flat to gently rolling

Population and urbanization
In the second half of the twentieth century, Kuwait witnessed rapid development in population growth, and since then the problem has been continuously exacerbated. The population has grown from 467,339 people in 1965 [30] to 4,464,521 people in 2019 [31]. If overpopulation is not examined and studied carefully, Kuwait will face many problems and negative effects associated with continued population increases, making the rates of urban development unable to meet the needs of the burgeoning population. The exponential mathematical equation, which have been used in many population studies [32,33] was chosen to make Table (  Of the noted population (Table 1), the State of Kuwait includes six governorates whose populations vary, but are summed up in Table 2 [34,35].

DATA AND METHODS
Computer modeling has become one of the most important tools in the field of land use and land cover, as GIS and remote sensing are utilized with increasing frequency to investigate landscape changes such as urban expansion [37,4]. However, planners and decision-makers often use only socio-economic parameters in urban planning, and rarely consider environmental aspects [4]. The first step of suitability modeling is data preparation, it is an important step in the analysis of land use and land cover (Table 3). Commonly, GIS applications in multi-criteria suitability analysis apply several models for analysis including, for example, Boolean overlay analysis, ranked overlay analysis, weighted overlay analysis, fuzzy overlay analysis and suitability composite indices [38]. To perform multi-criteria suitability analysis for urban development in Kuwait, a method utilizing three main steps was selected: data preparation, developing a composite suitability index, and selecting a suitable site (Fig. 3).

a. Data preparation
Several factors such as physical, social, and economic elements may affect the land-use suitability in Kuwait, but usually, planners use social-economics parameters/factors in urban planning [39]. In a related context, data preparation represents an important step in land suitability analysis [40,41,4]. Upon identifying analysis criteria, datasets of various indicators were collected (Tables 3 and 4).

Geology
The geological formations were divided into 4 types according to the degree of their suitability for building future cities, fig 4- 6. Air Quality (pollution) The country was divided into four zones according to the degree of pollution.

Oil fields
Oil fields have been added buffer zone to protect it from urbanism. This is to keep urbanization away from oil and pollution areas. Fig  4-

Archeological areas
Archaeological areas have been added buffer zone to protect it from urbanism [45].

Sand movements
Areas of sand movement are given a low rating for cities and areas that are safe from sand movement are rated high for urban area, Fig  4-

Earthquakes
Kuwait was divided into 3 sectors according to the strength of the earthquake [46]s.

b. Developing a composite suitability index
Composite indices are usually used in supporting the decision-making process through summarizing multi-dimensional realities and reducing the visible size of a set of indicators [47].
For this study, a composite suitability index was developed that considered 12 factors/criteria (Table 4). To establish the weighting matrix, all 12 criteria were included, with higher values given to environmental criteria, such as geomorphology, soil productivity, air quality, and geology. The relative weighted values of each factor/criteria were then discussed and reviewed by both the authors and experts from different disciplines in the geosciences, as in many studies [4,47,48].
Factors were determined from the authors and relative weights were determined from experts by taking an average value (see Table 4 for full description).

RESULT AND DISCUSSIONS
This section discusses proposing an urban plan for the State of Kuwait based on data in Table 3 and 4. It also discusses potential problems of Kuwait's new/current urban plan 2005-2030, in order to try and adapt to the current situation and urban problems so that appropriate and practical solutions can be devised.

Assessment of the 2005-2030 urban plan.
Based on projected population increases [49], the State of Kuwait has developed a plan to establish ~12 cities and new urban communities by 2030 to meet the growth [50]. The plan aims to contain the population increase, which will reach ~4.9 million by the year 2025, ~5.4 million in the year 2030 [49], and ~7.5 million by the year 2050. Since the current metropolitan area has already reached its population capacity, the State of Kuwait has begun planning cities in three new areas that will host 2.5 million people by 2030 [50]. In accordance with the policy of accommodating short, medium, and long urban growth in an urban system, the growth rates and absorptive capacity of each urban cluster have been determined (Fig. 5)   Proximity to other urban areas.
 A balanced distribution of the population's social and economic characteristics.
 Keeping distance from natural resource areas such as oil fields.
 Distribution of cities throughout the country. Looking at the previous criteria taken into account for selecting the sites for new cities, we find that they do not include geological, geomorphological, and environmental criteria, which could lead to the emergence of many urban problems (Fig. 6), including:  The city of Ali Sabah Al-Salem (Umm Al-Hayman) in southeast Kuwait has been exposed to a great deal of environmental and air pollution as a result of Kuwait's northwesternprevailing winds that transport pollutants from industrial areas located up to 3 km away, and oil refineries and fields located 8 km away.
 Al-Dhahr area, which is an elevated area in the north of Ahmadi city, which has been subjected to landslides and subsidence because of the lack of attention to the geological and natural parameters [10].
 The city of Sabah Al-Ahmad located in the south of the country in a low sabkha area covered by wadis from west to east, which lead to its exposure and inundation of potentially catastrophic rainfall events such as the 2018 torrents where twice the average (~300mm) precipitation was brought to the valleys from the western high areas.
 Protecting new cities from geomorphological hazards such as: sand movement, flash floods, and land subsidence (see Figure 6).
 The rains, which amounted to more than twice the natural rate, revealed the fragility of infrastructure in the roads (Fig. 6), as there was a complete stop of traffic flow at multiple sites after the 2018 rains (Fig. 6e), and the destruction that befell new and modern cities alike requires a plan to protect future cities.
 Some cities suffer from occasional, but not predictable sandstorms that affect infrastructure, and therefore require a clear plan and vision to protect cities from potential future deterioration and destruction.

Proposed sites for cities
The preliminary results of studies that dealt with modeling and simulation of urban development indicate delayed implementation of urban plans and occurrence of multiple urban problems [50]. The simulations have shown that delays will indeed have detrimental effects on traffic congestion and housing availability. In fact, delays in development of one new major city were associated with the worst outcomes in regard to traffic congestion and housing shortages.
Specifically, assuming that construction of new cities is completed without delays and according to the initial master plan, results indicate a 60% reduction in traffic congestion compared to 2015 levels, and no housing shortage before 2050 [53]. It should be noted that, according to the master plan, these predictions require establishing a modern train transportation system with good connectivity to all parts of the State of Kuwait, to facilitate movement and accelerate development processes. However, even with construction delays, the traffic congestion and housing shortage issues will be better compared to the business-as-usual scenario of infilling and expansion of the existing urban areas [52,53]. This study's proposed urban plan is based on 12 criteria (Tables 3 and 4), and within each criterion, the country is divided into four sectors (unsuitable -low suitable -moderate suitablehigh suitable), with some criteria given high values because of their proven impact (e.g., geomorphology, geology, soil productivity, air quality, and runoff). This is due to the importance of these factors in the State of Kuwait's urban planning efforts for the year 2050, so that the State can better avoid many potential future problems brought on by poor urban planning that would negatively affect both the State's and people's futures. Establishing new cities as urban growth form in Kuwait. Specifically, assuming that the construction of new cities is completed without delays and according to the initial master plan, the results indicate a reduction of 60% in traffic congestion compared to 2015 levels and no housing shortage before 2050 [53]. be ignored in the site selection processes [4]. Urban planning based on engineering without considering environmental implications/biodiversity, geomorphology, and spatial modeling are no longer as suitable as they were in the past. Through multi-criteria spatial modeling, producing urban plans that achieve the goal of sustainable development -inclusive of any factors that influence and ensure the preservation of environmental diversity -remains possible. Additionally, numerous environmental changes have occurred in Kuwait cities over the last two decades, and these should be considered when moving forward with any type of plan [4]. Tables 3 and 4 show the data source and setting that leads to environmental geomorphology modeling, while figure 8 displays the results: areas suitable for building future cities with high and moderate potential constitute 9837 km 2 (57.6%) of Kuwait's total land area. Moreover, the results of applying the model to city sites in Kuwait indicate that:  Some cities have a good location, and some need adjustment (see fig 7 and 8). For example, the city of Sabah Al-Ahmad faces various environmental problems resulting from poor geomorphologic information. It was built on an area of sabkha and lies at the end of the range of fine sand deposits, and in winter, it is exposed to the dangers of flash flooding.
 The cities located in the north represent stable areas because they the least exposed to geomorphological-environmental problems due to the availability of several factors such as air quality, sediments, elevation/topography, and distance from the dangers of sand encroachment and flash flooding.
 Failaka Island represents a more appropriate building site compared to Boubyan Island, as Boubyan hosts a large spread of sabkha, and would require multiple soil treatments and further environmental improvements before a city could be safely built.
 The city of Al-Mutlaa faces many problems due to the sediments of the dry valleys located in it and the instability of the soil, as it is bordered on the west by a valley of the fifth rank, which poses a threat to it.

Conclusion and Recommendations
Based on the framework put forth in this study, the future of urbanization in the State of Kuwait should include a geomorphological and environmental perspective, because urban environmental quality is one of the key factors determining the quality of life of urban residents [54]. Thus, developing tools to help decision-makers prioritize environmental improvement efforts is crucial for promoting more equitable and sustainable cities [55]. Integrating Environmental Analytical Hierarchical Process (EAHP) and GIS-Suitability modeling offers a new vision for urban planning. Out of Kuwait's 17,818 km² of total land area, only 57 %, was found as "suitable" area for development ("High" and "Moderate", Fig. 8). Based on the EAHP and GIS data then, this study offers several recommendations:  The sites of Sabah Al-Ahmad and Al-Mutlaa are not adequate according to environmental standards. Specifically, we recommend at least two separate systems to drain storm water -one surficial and one underground -so when the infrastructure faces increased rain, as happened in the winter of 2018 and 2020, it will not inundate the city or wreak havoc on construction, roads, and traffic. Thus, there is an urgent need to manage and store rainwater in desert and urban area.
 The soil map in Kuwait indicates 28% of its land area is suitable for agriculture if water is available. Owing to this, finding a way to adequately capture rainwater and/or treat sewage to provide water for agriculture should be a consideration in future development of those potential agricultural regions.
 The metropolitan area and some new cities suffer from the danger of sea level rise in some of their areas, where 58% are threatened by flooding operations during the current century [56], which requires setting a clear vision and practical solutions to confront the problem.
 Sand encroachment problems resulted from construction projects occurring in the pathway of migrating sands. Therefore, planning for future projects should consider the nature of aeolian sediment transport, avoiding as much as possible areas of creeping sands, and utilizing passive control measures. If active control measures are required, it should be preceded by a thorough impact assessment [57].
 Creation of an early warning system to deal with natural disasters and urban problems, as the city of Al-Jahra declared a natural disaster area in 1997 and the city of Sabah Al-Ahmad did the same in 2018.
Given that changes in regional and global climate regimes remain inevitable, hazards such as those previously experienced will only continue to occur, revealing (current) infrastructure shortcomings in the State of Kuwait. Such devastating natural occurrences are only exacerbated by Kuwait's increasing (urban) population, small areal extent, and susceptibility to phenomena like sea level rise, flooding from extreme precipitation events, sinkholes, and other hazards (cf., Fig 6). Yet these types of traumatic and costly events can be alleviated by conducting more thorough assessments of the environment and land use. Utilization of an integrated yet multipronged spatial analyses that take into account various geomorphological characteristics, such as EAHP modelling via GIS outlined in this paper, can be one straightforward way to enhance the Vision 2035 goals while also helping potentially mitigate future threats and vulnerabilities.