A Mathematical Model for the COVID-19 Outbreak and Its Applications

Roman Cherniha; Vasyl' Davydovych

Working Paper Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 12 May 2020 / Approved: 13 May 2020 / Online: 13 May 2020 (15:33:57 CEST)

A mathematical model is proposed for quantitative description of the outbreak of novel coronavirus COVID-19 Although the model is relatively simple, the comparison with the public data shows that an exact solution solution of the model (with the correctly-specified parameters) leads to the results, which are in good agreement with the measured data in China and Austria. Prediction of the total number of the COVID-19 cases is discussed and examples are presented using the measured data in Austria, France and Poland.

nonlinear mathematical model; modeling infectious diseases; logistic equation; integrability; exact solution

Computer Science and Mathematics, Applied Mathematics

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A Mathematical Model for the COVID-19 Outbreak and Its Applications

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