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A Mathematical Model for the COVID-19 Outbreak and Its Applications

This version is not peer-reviewed.

Submitted:

12 May 2020

Posted:

13 May 2020

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Abstract
A mathematical model is proposed for quantitative description of the outbreak of novel coronavirus COVID-19 Although the model is relatively simple, the comparison with the public data shows that an exact solution solution of the model (with the correctly-specified parameters) leads to the results, which are in good agreement with the measured data in China and Austria. Prediction of the total number of the COVID-19 cases is discussed and examples are presented using the measured data in Austria, France and Poland.
Keywords: 
nonlinear mathematical model; modeling infectious diseases; logistic equation; integrability; exact solution
Subject: 
Computer Science and Mathematics  -   Applied Mathematics
Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.

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