Mapping the Spread of COVID-19 Outbreak in India

Background & Objectives: The global pandemic caused by novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has claimed several lives worldwide. With the virus gathering rapid spread, the world has witnessed increasing number of confirmed cases and mortality rate, India is not far behind with approximately 37,000 affected individuals as on May 2, 2020. The ongoing pandemic has raised several questions which need to be answered by analysis of transmission of the infection. The data has been collected on daily basis from WHO and other sites. We have represented the data collated graphically using statistical packages, R and other online softwares. The present study provides a holistic overview of the spread of COVID-19 infection in India. Methods: Real-time data query was done based on daily observations using publicly available data from reference websites for COVID-19 and other government official reports for the period (15^th February, 2020 to April 28^th, 2020). Statistical analysis was performed to draw important inferences regarding COVID-19 trend in India. Results: A decrease in growth rate of cases due to COVID-19 in India post lockdown and improvement in recovery rate during the month of April was identified. The case fatality rate was estimated to be 3.22% of the total reported cases. State-wise analysis revealed a deteriorating situation in states of Maharashtra and Gujarat among others as cases continued to increase rapidly there. A positive linear correlation between the number of deaths and total cases and exponential relation between population density and number of cases reported per square km was established. Interpretation & Conclusions: Despite early preventive measures taken up by the Government of India, the increasing number of cases in India is a concern. This study compiles state-wise and district-wise data to report the daily confirmed cases, case fatalities and strategies adopted in the form of case studies. Understanding the transmission spread of SARS-CoV-2 in a diverse and populated country like India will be crucial in assessing the effectiveness of control policies towards the spread of COVID-19 infection.