Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Historical Changes and Future Trajectories of Deforestation in the Ituri-Epulu-Aru landscape (Democratic Republic of Congo)

Version 1 : Received: 17 March 2021 / Approved: 18 March 2021 / Online: 18 March 2021 (07:40:49 CET)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Kabuanga, J.M.; Kankonda, O.M.; Saqalli, M.; Maestripieri, N.; Bilintoh, T.M.-M.; Mweru, J.-P.M.; Liama, A.B.; Nishuli, R.; Mané, L. Historical Changes and Future Trajectories of Deforestation in the Ituri-Epulu-Aru Landscape (Democratic Republic of the Congo). Land 2021, 10, 1042. Kabuanga, J.M.; Kankonda, O.M.; Saqalli, M.; Maestripieri, N.; Bilintoh, T.M.-M.; Mweru, J.-P.M.; Liama, A.B.; Nishuli, R.; Mané, L. Historical Changes and Future Trajectories of Deforestation in the Ituri-Epulu-Aru Landscape (Democratic Republic of the Congo). Land 2021, 10, 1042.

Journal reference: Land 2021, 10, 1042
DOI: 10.3390/land10101042

Abstract

The Ituri-Epulu-Aru landscape (IEAL) is experiencing deforestation and forest degradation. This deforestation is at the root of many environmental disturbances in a region characterized by endemism in biodiversity. This article focuses on the triangulation of spatialized prospective scenarios in order to identify future trajectories based on the knowledge of historical dynamics through the diachronic analysis of three satellite images (2003-2010-2014-2016). The scenarios were de-signed in a supervised model implemented in the DINAMICA EGO platform. The three scenarios Business-As-Usual (BAU), Rapid Economic Growth (REG) and Sustainable Management of the Environment (SME), extrapolating current trends, show that by 2061 this landscape will always be dominated forests (+ 84%). Old-growth forests occupy 74.2% of the landscape area in the BAU scenario, 81.4% in the SEM scenario and 61.2% in the REG scenario. The SEM scenario gives hope that restoration and preservation of biodiversity priority habitats is still possible if policy makers become aware of it.

Keywords

land use change; modeling; scenario; deforestation; DINAMICA EGO; PFBC landscapes; Democratic Republic of Congo

Subject

EARTH SCIENCES, Atmospheric Science

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