This paper explores the application of machine learning (ML) algorithms in predicting trends in the fixed bond market, where traditional analytical methods have proven inadequate. Focusing on various ML techniques such as supervised and unsupervised learning, neural networks, and deep learning, the study evaluates their effectiveness in forecasting market movements. It details a series of experiments in which different ML models are rigorously trained and tested against historical bond market data. The findings reveal that models employing time series analysis and advanced deep learning show marked potential in accurately predicting bond market trends. Additionally, the paper delves into the challenges and limitations inherent in these ML approaches, including data requirements and the risk of model overfitting. Finally, it proposes directions for future research, emphasizing the integration of ML into broader financial market analysis.

To be used in cutting-edge green and other technologies, rare earth elements (REEs) are in great demand. Rare earth elements (REEs) include the following elements: La, Ce, Pr, Nd, Pm, Sm, Eu, Gd, Tb, Dy, Ho, Er, Tm, Yb, and Lu; additionally, they include Sc. Computers, laptops, TVs, generators, DVD players, cell phones, refrigerators, and other electronic equipment that are usually thrown away by their original owners because of their limited lifespan are examples of outdated or end-of-life electronics that make up e-waste. At the moment, these metals are essential to many contemporary devices, from LED light bulbs and wind turbines to cell phones and televisions. The development of new, cutting-edge technologies, especially in the field of electronics, depends on the availability of rare earth elements (REEs), sometimes referred to as the "vitamins" of modern industry. Since e-waste frequently has high concentrations of rare earth elements and is handled in hazardous ways, e-waste may be a significant contributor to the contamination of rare earth elements. Apart from their detrimental effects on the environment, these wastes also result in the loss of precious materials and rare earth elements such as gold, silver, copper, platinum, palladium, and rare earth, among other things. Every year, 50 million tonnes of e-waste are created globally. An enormous amount of e-waste is wasted since only 20% of it is handled correctly worldwide. There have been numerous reports on the recovery and separation of rare earth elements (REEs) from e-waste using various techniques, such as the hydrometallurgical process, siderophores, pyrometallurgical process, bioleaching, and biosorption. According to reports, the demand for rare earth elements (REEs) from clean technologies is expected to reach 51.9 thousand metric tons (kt) of REO in 2030. Nd and Dy, on the other hand, make up 75% and 9% of the world's REE deposits, respectively. REE levels in aquatic settings are rising, particularly in urban areas, in tandem with the growing demand for high-tech applications. Urban wastewater from open sewers and the entrance of a wastewater treatment facility in Cotonou, Benin, was collected, and its rare earth element (REE) contamination was evaluated.

Synthetic materials such as Carbon, Kevlar, and Glass fibers are extensively utilized in various industries due to their superior characteristics including high stiffness, great strength, low den-sity, and high wear resistance, these advantages contributed to making them widespread in ap-plications like; aerospace, automobile, civil and electronics. This research is carried out to enhance the creep compliance of epoxy composite material by considering two types of fibers as reinforcement. A composite material is produced by combining two fibers, Kevlar fiber mixed with sika epoxy resin, along with Carbon fiber also mixed with sika epoxy resin using a Hand-Layup process. Experiments and numerical modeling are examined to offer a comprehensive understanding creep behavior of epoxy composite material in different weight ratios. Burger and Prony models are used to represent stress relaxation and creep strain of Visco-elastic material. According to the results, sika epoxy resin reinforced with Kevlar and Carbon fibers exhibits enhancement in the mechanical properties compared with pure epoxy. The use of Kev-lar/Sika epoxy composite results in higher creep compliance and modulus of elasticity compared with Carbon/Sika epoxy composite.

Time series forecasting has been a challenging area in the field of Artificial Intel-ligence. Various approaches such as linear Neural Networks, Recurrent Linear Neural Networks, Convolutional Neural Networks and recently Transformers have been attempted for the time series forecasting domain. Although, Trans-former-based architectures have been outstanding in the Natural Language Pro-cessing domain, especially in autoregressive language modeling, the initial at-tempts to use transformers in the time series arena have met with mixed success. One of the recent papers demonstrated that modeling the multi-variate time se-ries problem as independent channels on a transformer architecture produced lower mean square and mean absolute errors on benchmarks, however, another recent paper claimed that a simple linear neural network out-performs previous approaches including transformer-based designs. We investigate this paradox in detail comparing the linear Neural Network and Transformer based designs, provide insights to why a certain approach may be better for a particular type of problem. We also improve upon the recently proposed simple linear Neural Network based architecture by using dual pipelines with batch normalization and reversible instance normalization. Our enhanced architecture outperforms all existing architectures for time series forecasting on majority of the popular benchmarks.

In this article, we discuss the concept of infinity (∞), infinitesimals □ , and a new mathematical operation that expands calculations into the realm of the infinite. This breakthrough allows for the computation of infinite numbers, leading to new possibilities for mathematical research and practical applications. By introducing infinite numbers, numerous advantages arise, such as accurately representing limits, divergences in integrals and infinite series, and extending calculations to infinity. This mathematical advancement opens doors to exploring uncharted territories, offering valuable insights and breakthroughs.

We investigate a singularly perturbed q-difference differential Cauchy problem with polynomial coefficients in complex time and space with quadratic nonlinearity. We construct local holomorphic solutions on sectors in the complex plane with respect to the perturbation parameter with values in some Banach space of formal power series in space with analytic coefficients on shrinking domains in time. Two aspects of these solutions are addressed. One feature concerns asymptotic expansions in the parameter for which a Gevrey type structure is unveiled. The other fact deals with confluence properties as q tends to 1. In particular the built up Banach valued solutions are shown to merge in norm to a fully bounded holomorphic map in all its arguments that solves a nonlinear partial differential Cauchy problem.

Multivariate Time Series Classification (MTSC) is one of most important tasks in time series analysis, aiding in activities such as human motion recognition and medical diagnostics. Existing methods for MTSC do not explicitly model temporal differences and generalize the idea of temporal difference into a efficient temporal module. Additionally, existing methods are not yet able to capture cross-variable relationships well during network training. As a result, they are unable to achieve convincing feature representation, leading to suboptimal classification accuracy. In this paper, we propose a novel MTSC model called Temporal Difference and Cross-variate Fusion Network (TDCFN), which integrates a two-stream differential LSTM network and a cross-variate feature extraction network to enhance feature representation. TDCFN achieves superior classification accuracy by capturing dynamic temporal evolution and inter-variable relationships. The experimental results show that TDCFN can achieve competitive performance with state-of-the-art multivariate time series classification approaches.

In this work, a novel approach is presented for the multivariate prediction of hydrological variables, employing a specialized type of recurrent neural network (RNN) known as the long-term memory network (LSTM).The central objective is to develop a flood prediction model using data collected from two hydrological stations situated along the Atrato River in the Choc´o Department, Colombia. The interconnected variables of water level, water flow, and water precipitation are analyzed in this model to enhance flood prediction accuracy. The LSTM model, integrated into an RNN structure, is designed to capture the complex dynamics and cross-correlations inherent in these hydrological variables. Validation involves a comparison with linear and nonlinear Nonlinear AutoRegressive with eXogenous input (NARX) models, considering factors such as estimation error and computational time. Additionally, the study conducts further analysis for water level prediction under two scenarios: utilizing only outflow and inflow measurements or predicting outflow alongside measuring inflow, with the objective of utilizing the proposed approach as a flood early warning system. † This article is a revised and expanded version of a paper entitled Multivariable NARX based Neural Networks Models for Short-term Water Level Forecasting, which was presented at International Conference on Time Series and Forecasting (ITISE-2023), Gran Canaria, Spain, 12th-14th July, 2023.

This study investigates the mean annual water temperature trends at the confluence of the Sava and Danube Rivers, along with air temperature trends at the Belgrade meteorological station, spanning from 1956 to 2020. Results reveal a consistent increase in temperature across all three measuring stations, with the Danube experiencing a rise of 0.34°C/10 years, the Sava at 0.44°C/10 years, and Belgrade's air temperature increasing by 0.39°C/10 years. Employing the RAPS method, sharp rises in water temperature were pinpointed in 1989 for the Sava and 1990 for the Danube, while Belgrade's air temperature surge began in 1998. The highest intensity of air temperature increase within the recent period (1998-2020) was observed at the Belgrade observatory, reaching 0.76°C/10 years. Notably, the Sava exhibited a faster increase in water temperature over the last thirty years compared to the Danube. August marked the peak average water temperature for both rivers, while July recorded the highest average air temperature in Belgrade. Despite differing flow rates, both rivers exhibit similar hydrological regimes, with maximum flows occurring in April and minimum flows in August for the Sava, and October for the Danube. Seasonal temperature increases were most pronounced in summer, notably in August, with the smallest rises occurring during cold periods. Additionally, an inverse proportional relationship between mean annual water temperatures and discharges was observed at both river stations.

The Imbalance Cost Pass-Through (ICPT) is a flexible component of the Incentive Regulation (IBR) that empowers power producers to adjust tariffs in response to variable fuel prices, thereby enhancing the economic resilience of electricity generation. However, the cost of electricity generation is significantly influenced by the volatility of commodity prices, including coal, gas and LNG. In Malaysia, the Energy Commission has conducted biannual reviews of fuel and other generation costs. Any cost savings or increases identified during these reviews will be passed on to customers in the form of rebates or surcharges. Due to that reason, this study proposes ICPT price forecasting for the electricity market in Peninsular Malaysia. The study aims to construct an ICPT-related baseline model for the peninsular generation data by employing three forecasting methods. The forecasting performance is analysed by a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). In findings, the ARIMA method is one of the most accurate forecasting methods for fuel prices compared to the Moving Average (MA) and LSSVM methods. The observed price differences between the ARIMA and LSSVM models for ICPT are minimal. The ICPT price for July-December 2022 and January-June 2023 is MYR 0.21/ kWh for ARIMA and MYR 0.18/kWh for LSSVM, which are close to the actual TNB’s ICPT tariff. As for the forecasting, the ICPT price is expected to drop for the next announcement. The findings of this study may contribute to a positive impact on the sustainability of the energy sector in Malaysia.

Volatility estimation and quantile regression are relevant active research areas in statistics, machine learning and econometrics. In this work, we propose two procedures to estimate local variances in generic regression problems by using of kernel smoothers. The proposed schemes can be applied in multidimesional scenarios (not just for time series analysis) and easily in a multi-output framework, as well. Moreover, they allow the possibility of providing uncertainty estimation using a generic kernel smoother technique. Several numerical experiments show the benefits of the proposed methods, even comparing with benchmark techniques. One of these experiment involves a real dataset analysis.

The concept of graphs with clique-width at most was first introduced by Courcelle et al.to be the graphs that can be characterized using -expressions derived from graph operations that use labels of vertices. If the clique-width for some graph is bounded then a grand number of algorithmic problems, in general NP-hard, can be solved in polynomial time when restricted to this graph. This important fact motivated the researchers to prove that the clique-width of certain graphs is bounded. Following this research direction, we prove in this paper that the clique-width of series-parallel digraphs is at most 6 and we present an time algorithm to construct a 6-expression for this class of digraphs. In another part, we present a linear time recognition algorithm for a similar class of series-parallel digraphs and prove that the clique-width of this class is at most 3.

Hybrid forecasting methods have emerged as a solution surpassing the limitations of both statistical and deep learning approaches. While the first emphasize the significance of variables, they often produce worse forecasting results when compared to newer techniques. In contrast, deep learning models remain enigmatic "black boxes" in terms of interpretability, although achieving better results in forecasting. This article introduces the Comprehensive Cross-Correlation and Lagged Linear Regression Deep Learning (CCLR-DL) framework, designed to harness the best of both approaches, enhancing forecasting accuracy while retaining model interpretability through a feature selection process. CCLR-DL blens cross-correlation analysis, lagged multiple linear regression and granger's causality procedures with deep learning architectures based on LSTM. In a practical demonstration, CCLR-DL was applied to a real database of clinical visits associated to diagnoses in Catalonia, Spain (tracking a population of 6.3 million patients during 10 years). Predicting visits enables the healthcare managers to be ready for future demand shifts. Results demonstrate a consistent and substantial improvement over standalone statistical and deep learning methods when predicting healthcare demand. This hybrid approach not only showcases its efficacy but also offers a promising solution to the challenge of balancing predictive accuracy with model explicability. In this context, this work aims to design and validate a method for feature selection and forecasting of multivariate high dimensional time series datasets not only to improve prediction accuracy but also to model transparency by identifying a subset of variables that improve predictions and G-cause the target variable.

Transformation formula under the action of a general linear fractional transformation for generalized Dedekind eta-function has been a subject of intensive study, Rademacher, Dieter, Meyer et al. However, the (Hecke) modular relation structure has not been recognized until the work of Goldstein-de la Torre, and streamlining the classical proofs in the modular relation will reveal the meaning hidden in those works. Our main aim is to elucidate the works of these researchers in the context of modular relations.

This investigation introduces an efficient method for assessing the reliability of semi-rigid steel frame connections in existing buildings, explicitly targeting the Top Angle and Seat Pad (TA-SP) semi-rigid connection commonly used in Australian cities' high-rise buildings. The moment capacity of these connections was examined through parameter power model testing, meticulously considering the bending, shear, and prying forces actions to determine the weakest elements in the connection system. A plastic hinge model was applied to ensure computational efficiency and accuracy in assessing the connections' ultimate strength. Comparatively, the finite element (F.E) method M−θ curves were introduced to scrutinise the nonlinear behaviour of the connection, providing validation for the predicted analytical approach. Further emphasis was placed on identifying the reliability of the weakest elements in the connection system, employing the First-Order and Second-Order Reliability Methods models to estimate their reliability index. The correlation between the model's failure probability and a percentile error was also explored, utilising Monte Carlo simulation reference for refined validation. Novel formulas and methodologies were introduced to compute the locked-chain-series system reliability, which accounts for the inherent material and geometric variability. The findings highlight the critical significance of the weakest element in determining the overall reliability of the existing TA-SP connection.

Significant changes to the new National College Entrance Examination (NCEE) and the implementation of the “Double First-Class” (DFC) initiative in China are coincidentally in the national spotlight and fall within the same policy window. However, few studies have investigated the effects of the new NCEE on the quality of students in DFC universities. By leveraging the 2018-2022 college admission data from Shandong Province, these effects are examined via the interrupted time-series technique. Weighted rankings for liberal arts and science disciplines and the admission ranking coefficient are adopted to ensure comparability before and after the reform. The findings reveal that after the reform, the quality of students in both world-class universities and first-class discipline universities improved, with greater improvements seen in world-class universities. Focusing on urban differences, the quality of students in DFC universities located in second-tier cities is found to have experienced a higher increase as compared with students in the first-tier and new first-tier cities. In addition, the reform has had different impacts on the quality of students in different majors. Furthermore, when selecting postsecondary institutions, high-scoring students prioritize the quality of universities and majors over urban factors. Finally, the implications of the new NCEE in relation to a sustainable development of DFC universities for research, policy, and practice are further discussed.

Long-range interactions are relevant for a large variety of quantum systems in quantum optics and condensed matter physics. In particular, the control of quantum-optical platforms promises to gain deep insights in quantum-critical properties induced by the long-range nature of interactions. From a theoretical perspective, long-range interactions are notoriously complicated to treat. Here, we give an overview of recent advancements to investigate quantum magnets with long-range interactions focusing on two techniques based on Monte Carlo integration. First, the method of perturbative continuous unitary transformations where classical Monte Carlo integration is applied within the embedding scheme of white graphs. This linked-cluster expansion allows to extract high-order series expansions of energies and observables in the thermodynamic limit. Second, stochastic series expansion quantum Monte Carlo which enables calculations on large finite systems. Finite-size scaling can then be used to determine physical properties of the infinite system. In recent years, both techniques have been applied successfully to one- and two-dimensional quantum magnets involving long-range Ising, XY, and Heisenberg interactions on various bipartite and non-bipartite lattices. Here, we summarise the obtained quantum-critical properties including critical exponents for all these systems in a coherent way. Further, we review how long-range interactions are used to study quantum phase transitions above the upper critical dimension and the scaling techniques to extract these quantum critical properties from the numerical calculations.

This paper draws upon the theory of turbulence in physics to explore the similarities and differences between volatility in financial markets and turbulent phenomena at a statistical physics level. By analogizing the dynamics of financial markets with fluid turbulence, we have developed an innovative analytical framework aimed at deepening the understanding of the complexity inherent in financial markets. Our research methodology includes a comparative analysis of simulated time series data for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and fully developed turbulent velocity time series. We focus on the similarities in key statistical physical properties, including probability distributions, correlation structures, and power spectral densities. Furthermore, we have established a model of capital flow in financial markets and proposed corresponding solutions. Through computational simulations and data analysis, we find that while financial market volatility shares some statistical characteristics with turbulent phenomena, significant differences exist in the shapes of probability distributions and the temporal scales of correlations. This suggests that although financial markets exhibit patterns akin to turbulence, the behavior of this complex, multi-variable driven system does not completely correspond to natural turbulence, highlighting the limitations of directly applying turbulence theory to financial market analysis. Our study offers a new perspective for the theories of financial markets and the field of econophysics, providing fresh insights into the complexity of financial markets and contributing to the prevention and management of financial risk.

Solar flares are characterized by sudden bursts of electromagnetic radiation from the Sun’s surface, and caused by the changes in magnetic field states in solar active regions. Earth and its surrounding space environment can suffer from various negative impacts caused by solar flares ranging from electronic communication disruption to radiation exposure-based health risks to the astronauts. In this paper, we address the solar flare prediction problem from magnetic field parameter-based multivariate time series (MVTS) data using multiple state-of-the-art machine learning classifiers that include MINImally RandOm Convolutional KErnel Transform (MINIROCKET), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Canonical Interval Forest (CIF), Multiple Representations SEQuence Learner (Mr-SEQL), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-based deep learning model. Our experiment is conducted on the on the Space Weather ANalytics for Solar Flares (SWAN-SF) benchmark data set, which is a partitioned collection of MVTS data of active region magnetic field parameters spanning over 9 years of operation of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The MVTS instances of the SWAN-SF dataset are labeled by GOES X-ray flux-based flare class labels, and attributed to extreme class imbalance because of the rarity of the major flaring events (e.g., X and M). As a performance validation metric in this class-imbalanced dataset, we used the true skill statistic (TSS) score. Finally, we demonstrate the advantages of the MVTS learning algorithm MINIROCKET, which outperformed the aforementioned classifiers without the need for essential data preprocessing steps such as normalization, statistical summarization, and class imbalance handling heuristics.

Recently, Gohar et al. introduced a novel, local, and well-behaved fractional calculus. It possesses all the classical properties, and Its locality imposes simplicity and accuracy in modeling fractional order systems. In this article, we further develop the definitions and extend the classical properties of Gohar fractional calculus to address some of the open problems in Calculus. The fractional Gronwall's integral inequality, Taylor power series expansion, and Laplace transform are defined and applied to overcome some of the limitations in the classical integer-order calculus. The fractional Laplace transform is applied to solve Bernoulli-type logistic and Bertalanffy nonlinear fractional differential equations, and the criteria under which it can be applied to solve linear differential equations are investigated.

When dealing with limited sample sizes or missing values in time series data, achieving high accuracy in forecasting becomes challenging. This challenge is particularly common in wind energy forecasting, where many wind farms lack complete data. In this paper, we employ the widely-used ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model for time series forecasting. To address the difficulties posed by limited sample sizes and missing values, we adopt a unique approach by utilizing multiple ARIMA models for different datasets. A key distinction from other multiple models methods for time series forecasting lies in each model within our approach using its own dataset, making the fusion process more intricate. To overcome this, we incorporate neural networks and two techniques for model fusion: direct fusion with a learning mechanism and compensation for missing data through training. For each ARIMA model, we introduce a noise estimation method to circumvent the white noise assumptions inherent in ARIMA models. Finally, we apply these methods to wind energy prediction, and our experimental results showcase a significant enhancement in forecasting accuracy.

The study of precipitation amount at different time scales constitutes an important issue in climate research and risk assessment. When dealing with daily totals, a frequent but sometimes underestimated problem is at what time the observation day begins. The choice of different starting times may lead to incompatibility between stations and incorrect identification of extreme events. In this work, the problem of temporal misalignment between precipitation datasets characterized by different starting time of the observation day is analyzed. The most widely used adjustment methods (1day and uniform shift) and two methods based on reanalysis (NOAA and ERA5) are evaluated in terms of temporal alignment, precipitation statistics and percentile distributions. As test series, the precipitation amount collected from 9 a.m. local time (09 LT) on the previous day to 09 LT on the target day (9-9 datasets) of the Padua and nearby stations in the period 1993-2022 have been selected. Results show that the reanalysis-based methods, in particular ERA5, outperform the others in temporal alignment, regardless the station. But, for the periods in which reanalysis data are not available, “1day” method, which shifts the daily amount back one calendar day, and “unif” method, which distributes uniformly the daily total from a 2-day moving window surrounding the target date, can be considered valid alternatives. On the other side, concerning the precipitation statistics, the reanalysis-based methods are not the best option, as they increase the precipitation frequency and reduce the mean value over wet days, NOAA much more than ERA5. Nevertheless, the uniform method provides a larger deviation from the original daily series. The use of the series of a station nearby the target one, which is mandatory in case of missing data, gives similar or better results than applying any adjustment method to the 9-9 series. General conclusions can hardly be drawn as they depend on the method and station. For the Padua dataset, the analysis was repeated at monthly and seasonal resolution. In general, the adjustment series show the most relevant changes in the precipitation statistics in summer and less temporal alignment with the original series in summer and autumn, the two seasons mainly affected by heavy rains in Padua. Finally, the percentiles distribution, analyzed for all the methods and stations, indicates that any adjustment method underestimates the percentile values, except ERA5. Only Legnaro, the station most correlated with Padua, gives results like ERA5.

Landsat and Sentinel-2 acquisitions are among the most widely used medium-resolution optical data adopted for terrestrial vegetation applications, such as land cover and land use mapping, vegetation condition and phenology monitoring, and disturbance and change mapping. When combined, both data archives provide over 40 years, and counting, of continuous and consistent observations. Although the spatio-temporal availability of both data archives is well-known at the scene level, information on the actual availability of cloud-, snow-, and shade-free observations at the pixel level is lacking and should be explored individually for each study to correctly parametrize subsequent analyses. However, data exploration is time and resource consuming, thus is rarely performed a-priori. Consequently, the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of usable data is often inadequately accounted for in the analysis design, risking ill-advised selection of algorithms and hypotheses, and thus inferior quality of final results. Here we present precomputed data on the daily 1982‑2023 availability of usable Landsat and Sentinel-2 acquisitions across the globe, sampled at a pixel-level in a regular 0.18°-point grid. The dataset comprises separate Landsat- and Sentinel‑2‑specific data records, and is accompanied by a pixel-specific growing season information to facilitate data exploration. The dataset was derived based on freely available 1982-2023 Landsat surface reflectance (Collection 2) and Sentinel-2 top-of-the-atmosphere reflectance (pre‑Collection-1 and Collection-1) scenes from 2015 through 2023, following the methodology developed in the recent study on data availability over Europe [1]. Growing season information was derived based on 2001‑2019 time series of the yearly 500 m MODIS land cover dynamics product (MCD12Q2; Collection 6) [1]. As such, the dataset presents a unique overview of the spatio-temporal availability of usable daily Landsat and Sentinel-2 data at the global scale, hence offering much needed a-priori information aiding identification of appropriate methods and challenges for terrestrial vegetation analyses at local to global scale.

In an epoch characterized by the swift pace of digitalization and urbanization, the essence of community well-being hinges on the efficacy of urban management. As cities burgeon and transform, the need for astute strategies to navigate the complexities of urban life becomes in-creasingly paramount. This study employs time series analysis to scrutinize citizen interactions with the coordinate-based problem mapping platform in the Municipality of Patras in Greece. The research explores the temporal dynamics of reported urban issues, with a specific focus on identifying recurring patterns through the lens of seasonality. The analysis, employing the sea-sonal decomposition technique, dissects time series data to expose trends in reported issues and areas of the city that might be obscured in raw big data. It accentuates a distinct seasonal pattern, with concentrations peaking during the summer months. The study extends its approach to forecasting, providing insights into the anticipated evolution of urban issues over time. Projec-tions for the coming years show a consistent upward trend in both overall city issues and those reported in specific areas, with distinct seasonal variations. This comprehensive exploration of time series analysis and seasonality provides valuable insights for city stakeholders, enabling informed decision-making and predictions regarding future urban challenges.

This work targets the development of a mobility control system for high-speed series hybrid electric tracked vehicles, which operate with independent traction motors for each track. The scope of the research encompasses the modeling of the series hybrid powertrain specific to military tracked vehicles, as well as an in-depth analysis of their dynamic behavior. Subsequently, the study conducts a critical review of the mobility control approaches sourced from literature, identifying key techniques relevant to high-inertia vehicular applications. Building on the foundational models, the study puts forward a robust closed-loop mobility control system aimed at ensuring precise and stable off-road vehicle operations. The system's resilience and adaptability to a variety of driving conditions are emphasized, with a particular focus on handling maneuvers such as steering and pivoting, which are challenging operations for tracked vehicle agility. The performance of the proposed mobility control system is tested through a series of simulations, covering a spectrum of operational scenarios. These tests are carried out in both offline simulation settings, which permit meticulous fine-tuning of system parameters, and real-time environments that replicate actual field conditions. The simulation results demonstrate the system's capacity to improve vehicular response and highlight its potential impact on the future designs of mobility control systems for the heavy-duty vehicle sector, particularly in defense applications.

High-rise building machines (HBMs) play a critical role in the successful construction of super-high skyscrapers, providing essential support and ensuring safety. The HBM’s climbing system relies on a jacking mechanism consisting of several independent jacking cylinders. A reliable control system is imperative to maintain a smooth posture of the construction steel platform (SP) under the action of the jacking mechanism. This research introduces three multivariate time series neural network models—namely, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN)—to predict the posture of HBM. The models take pressure and stroke measurements from the jacking cylinders as inputs, and their outputs determine the levelness of the SP and the posture of the HBM at various climbing stages. The development and training of these neural networks are based on historical on-site data, with the predictions subjected to thorough comparative analysis. All proposed neural network models exhibit the capability to dynamically predict the posture of the HBM during the climbing process, using data from sensors. Notably, the GRU model shows better predictive performance.

The electrical energy supply relies on the satisfactory operation of insulators. The ultrasound recorded from insulators in different conditions has a time series output, which can be used to classify faulty insulators. The random convolutional kernel transform (Rocket) algorithms use convolutional filters to extract various features from time series data. This paper proposes the combination of Rocket algorithms, machine learning classifiers, and empirical mode decomposition (EMD) methods, such as complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), empirical wavelet transform (EWT), and variational mode decomposition (VMD). The results show that the EMD methods combined with MiniRocket, significantly improve the accuracy of logistic regression in insulator fault diagnosis. The proposed strategy achieves respectively an accuracy of 0.992 using CEEMDAN, 0.995 with EWT, and 0.980 with VMD. These results highlight the potential of incorporating EMD methods in insulator failure detection models to enhance the safety and dependability of power systems.

Wildfires are important natural drivers of forest stands dynamics, strongly influencing on their natural regeneration and ecosystem services. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of spatiotemporal burnt area (BA) patterns over the period 2000–2022 in the Middle Volga region of the Russian Federation on the base of remote sensing time series, considering the impact of cli-matic factors on forest fires. The temporal trends were assessed with the Mann-Kendall nonpara-metric statistical test and Theil-Sen’s slope estimator using the LandTrendr algorithm on the Google Earth Platform (GEE). The accuracy assessment indicated a high overall accuracy (> 84%) and F-score value (> 82%) for forest burnt area detection as evaluated against 581 test sites of ref-erence data. The results revealed that the fire occurrences in the region were mainly irregular with the highest frequency of 7.3 over a 22-year period. The total forest BA was about 280 thousand ha, which equals to 1.7% of the land surface area or 4.0% of the total forested area under study in the Middle Volga region. The coniferous forest stands are the most fire-prone ecosystems accounting for 59.0 % of the total BA; deciduous stands accounts for 25.1%; and insignificant fire occurrences were registered in young forests and shrub lands. On a seasonal scale, temperature generally has a greater impact on the BA than precipitation and wind speed.

The assessment of photovoltaic devices, which convert light energy into electricity, becomes significantly relevant due to the aspiration to reduce pollution on a global scale. In this context, the pursuit of optimizing the efficiency in converting light energy into electrical energy involves exhaustive studies and structural analyses of solar cells, all directed toward achieving this goal. This study introduces a research proposal aimed at analyzing the losses associated with series resistance (Rs). The analysis takes into account each component comprising this resistance, pro-posing a network of resistances that precisely models each of these elements. The aforementioned research focused on simple-structured crystalline silicon cells. During this investigation, the junction depth (xj) of n-p materials was varied with the aim of achieving efficiencies in the range of 12%. However, in the pursuit of this desired efficiency, a significant impact on series resistance was observed when analyzing the I-V curves of the cells obtained in each manufacturing process.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides crucial data on monthly and annual fuel consumption for electricity generation. This data covers significant fuels such as coal, petroleum liquids, petroleum coke, and natural gas. Fuel consumption patterns are highly dynamic, influenced by diverse factors. Understanding these fluctuations is essential for effective energy planning and decision-making. This study outlines a comprehensive analysis of fuel consumption trends in electricity generation. Utilizing advanced statistical methods, including time series analysis and autocorrelation, our objective is to uncover intricate patterns and dependencies within the data. This paper aims to forecast fuel consumption trend for electricity generation using data from 2015 to 2022. Several time-series forecasting models, including all four benchmark methods (Mean, Naïve, Drift, and seasonal Naïve), Seasonal and Trend Decomposition using Loess (STL), Exponential Smoothing (ETS), and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methods, have been applied. The best-performing models are determined based on Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) values. For Natural Gas (NG) consumption, the ETS model achieves the lowest RMSE of 20,687.46. STL demonstrates the best performance for coal consumption with an RMSE of 5,936.203. The seasonal Naïve (SNaïve) model outperforms others for petroleum coke forecasting, yielding an RMSE of 99.49. Surprisingly, the Mean method has the lowest RMSE of 287.34 for petroleum liquids, but the ARIMA model is reliable for its ability to capture complex patterns. Residual plots are analyzed to assess the models' performance against statistical parameters. Accurate fuel consumption forecasting is very important for effective energy planning and policymaking. The findings from the study help policymakers strategically allocate resources, plan infrastructure development and support economic growth.

Smart cities, leveraging advanced data analytics, predictive models, and digital twin techniques, offer a transformative model for sustainable urban development. Predictive analytics plays a crucial role in proactive planning, enabling cities to adapt to evolving challenges. Concurrently, digital twin techniques provide a virtual replica of the urban environment, fostering real-time monitoring, simulation, and analysis of urban systems. This research underscores the significance of real-time monitoring, simulation, and analysis of urban systems to support test scenarios that identify bottlenecks and enhance smart city efficiency. The paper delves into the crucial roles of citizen report analytics, prediction, and digital twin technologies at the neighborhood level. The study integrates ETL/ELT processes, AI techniques, and a digital twin methodology to process and interpret urban data streams derived from citizen interactions with the city's coordinate-based problem mapping platform. By employing an interactive GeoDataFrame within the digital twin methodology, dynamic entities facilitate simulations based on various scenarios. This approach enables users to visualize, analyze, and predict the response of the urban system at the neighborhood level. Consequently, antecedent and predictive patterns, trends, and correlations are visualized at the physical level of each city area, leading to improvements in urban functionality, resilience, and resident quality of life.

It is unavoidable that the characteristics of the robot system alter inexactly or cannot be correctly determined during movement and are impacted by external disturbances. There are many adaptive control methods, such as sliding control or neural control, to improve the quality of trajectory tracking for robot motion systems. Still, those methods require a large amount of computation related to solving the problem of constrained nonlinear optimization problem. The article presents some techniques for determining an intelligent controller's online learning function parameters, including two circuits: the inner circuit is a state feedback linearized controller, and the outer course is an Interactive learning controller and does not use the robot's mathematical mode with function parameters online optimal learning and intelligent online learning closely following the joint model to stabilize the robot system. Finally, the 2-DOF planar robot simulation is performed on Matlab software R2022b. The findings indicate that outstanding tracking performance is achievable.

Integrating photovoltaic (PV) systems plays a pivotal role in the global shift toward renewable energy, offering significant environmental benefits. In many instances, utility companies pay for both energy and peak demand. PV systems can effectively reduce energy consumption during their operational periods, while, their contribution during peak hours, particularly in the early morning and late evening, is often limited. To address this issue, battery storage systems are utilized for storing energy during off-peak hours and releasing it during peak times. However, finding the optimal size of PV-battery systems remains a challenge. This study proposes a novel statistical model to optimize PV-battery system sizing for enhanced peak demand reduction. The model aims to flatten 95% of peak demand days up to a certain demand threshold, ensuring consistent energy supply and financial benefit for utility companies. A straightforward and effective search methodology is employed to determine the optimal system sizes. Additionally, the model effectiveness is rigorously tested through a modified Monte Carlo simulation coupled with time series clustering to generate various scenarios to assess performance under different conditions. The results indicate that the optimal PV-battery system successfully flattens 95% of daily peak demand up to 2000 kW, yielding a financial benefit of $812,648 over 20 years.

Reservoir computing (RC) systems can efficiently forecast chaotic time series using nonlinear dynamical properties of an artificial neural network of random connections. The versatility of RC systems has motivated further research on both hardware counterparts of traditional RC algorithms and more efficient RC-like schemes. Inspired by the nonlinear processes in a living biological brain and using solitary waves excited on the surface of a flowing liquid film, in this paper we experimentally validate a physical RC system that substitutes the effect of randomness for a nonlinear transformation of input data. Carrying out all operations using a microcontroller with a minimal computational power, we demonstrate that the so-designed RC system serves as a technically simple hardware counterpart to the `next-generation’ improvement of the traditional RC algorithm.

Background: Pediatric Rapid Response Teams (RRTs) are expected to significantly lower pediatric mortality in healthcare settings. This study evaluates RRTs' effectiveness in decreasing cardiac arrests and unexpected Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) admissions. Methods: A quasi-experimental study (2014-2017) at King Abdulaziz University Hospital, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, involved 3,261 pediatric inpatients, split into pre-intervention (1,604) and post-intervention (1,657) groups. The intervention entailed pediatric specialists collaboratively managing acute decompensations following set protocols. Results: RRT was activated 471 times, primarily for respiratory distress (29.30%), sepsis (22.30%), clinical anxiety (13.80%), and hematological abnormalities (6.7%). Family concerns triggered 0.1% of activations. Post-RRT implementation, unplanned PICU admissions significantly reduced (RR = 0.552, 95% CI 0.485-0.628, P < 0.0001), and non-ICU cardiac arrests were eliminated (RR = 0). Patient care improvement was notable, with a -9.61 coefficient for PICU admissions (95% CI: -12.65 to -6.57, P < 0.001) and a -1.641 coefficient for non-ICU cardiac arrests (95% CI: -2.22 to -1.06, P < 0.001). Sensitivity analysis showed mixed results for PICU admissions, while zero-inflation Poisson analysis confirmed a reduction in non-ICU arrests. Conclusions: The deployment of pediatric RRTs is associated with fewer unexpected PICU admissions and non-ICU cardiopulmonary arrests, indicating improved PICU management. Further research using robust scientific methods is necessary to conclusively determine RRTs' clinical benefits.

Fractal analysis of time series aims to extract the hidden or complex structures issued from the associated real data, such as scaling laws, non-stationary, dynamics, and so on. In the present work, the air quality index and its components are considered as time series owing fractal structures. To understand their underlying dynamics, wavelet multifractal approach is applied starting with a wavelet multifractal spectrum test to confirm the multifractality of the underlying data. Next, a new model is introduced improving the classical minmax one, provided with a statistical measure for the adequacy of the new model. The theoretical findings are applied to the north west Tabuk region of Saudi Arabia for environmental and climate data related to pollutants and factors involved in the estimation of the air quality index.

The Bessel function of the first kind J_N(kx) is expanded in a Fourier-Legendre series, as is the modified Bessel functions of the first kind I_N(kx) . Known polynomial approximations for the range −3≤x≤3 (having five-digit accuracy) are compared with those arising from this Legendre series and substitute versions are given with twice the number of terms and range (with five-digit accuracy or having fifteen-digit accuracy over −3≤x≤3). It is shown that infinite series of like-powered contributors (involving _2F_3 hypergeometric functions) extracted from the Fourier-Legendre series may be summed, having values that are inverse powers of the first five primes 1/(2^i 3^j 5^k 7^l 11^mm) for powers of order x24.

The Vaal Dam catchment, which is the source of potable water for Gauteng province, holds various human activities including mining, urbanization, agricultural and industrial activities coupled with high fluxes of nutrients from different areas within the catchment. This situation led to an enhancement of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) in the dam reservoir. Phosphorus and Nitrogen are the limiting nutrients for HABs in many eutrophic aquatic systems when their concentrations are raised in such waters. In this study, multi-time-series plot types and scutter plots were analysed to reveal the relationship between HABs proxy chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and the potential nutrients. Also (Chl-a) data extracted from landsat-8 satellite images were visualised to show the spatial distribution of HABs in the reservoir. The results showed that the Vaal Dam HABs productivity is a function of the total phosphorus (TP) and the organic nitrogen (KJEL_N) levels, which were positively correlated with chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration. The long-term analysis of Chl-a in-situ data (1986 – 2022) measured at one point within the reservoir showed an average of 11.25μg/l but at some stochastic dates, the Chl-a concentration jumped to very high values reaching the maximum value of 452.8μg/l. Such high values are associated with high records of TP and KJEL_N concentrations at the same dates which clearly reveals their effect on the productivity levels. The decadal time series and its trend analysis showed that the average productivity level of Chl-a increased during the studded period from 4.75μg/l in the first decade (1990 – 2000) to 10.51μg/l in the second decade (2000 – 2010) reaching 16.7 during the last decade (2010 – 2020). The increasing averages of the decadal values are associated with the increasing decadal average of its driving factors, TP from 0.1043 to 0.1096 to 0.1119mg/l for the three decades, respectively and KJEL_N from 0.80mg/l in the first decade to 1.14mg/l in the last decade. The decadal average of temperature showed no significant increase, 17.9 °C in the first decade and 18 °C in the last decade which suggests that temperature is not the only enhancing factor of the HABs productivity in the Vaal Dam. The satellite data analysis during the last decade revealed that the HABs spatial dynamics is a function of the dam geometry and the levels of the discharges from its two feeding rivers. Higher concentrations were observed where the reservoir is meandering and within the areas of restricted water circulation.

Prime numbers are the atoms of mathematics and mathematics is needed to make sense of the real world. Finding the Prime number structure and eventually being able to crack their code is the ultimate goal in what is called Number Theory. From the evolution of species to cryptography, Nature finds help in Prime numbers. One of the most important advances in the study of Prime numbers was the paper by Bernhard Riemann in November 1859 called “Ueber die Anzahl der Primzahlen unter einer gegebenen Grösse” (On the number of primes less than a given quantity). In that paper, Riemann gave a formula for the number of primes less than x in terms the integral of 1/log(x) and the roots (zeros) of the zeta function defined by: Where ζ(z) is a function of a complex variable z that analytically continues the Dirichlet series. Riemann also formulated a conjecture about the location of the zeros of RZF, which fall into two classes: the "trivial zeros" -2, -4, -6, etc., and those whose real part lies between 0 and 1. Riemann's conjecture Riemann hypothesis [RH] was formulated as this: [RH] The real part of every nontrivial zero z* of the RZF is 1/2. Proving the RH is, as of today, one of the most important problems in mathematics. In this paper we will provide a proof of the RH. The proof of the RH will be built following these five parts: PART 1: Description of the RZF PART 2: The C-transformation PART 3: Application of the C-transformation to in Re(z) 0 to obtain ζ(z)=X(z)-Y(z) PART 4: Analysis of the values of z such that X(z)=Y(z), and |X(z)|=|Y(z)|, that equates to ζ(z)=0 Proof that |X(z)|=|Y(z)| only if Re(z)=1/2 Conclude that ζ(z)=0 only if Re(z)=1/2 for Re(z) 0 PART 5: We will also prove that all non-trivial zeros of ζ(z) in the critical line of the form are not distributed randomly. There is a relationship between the values of those zeros and the Harmonic function that leads to an algebraic relationship between any two zeros.

The phytoplankton community in 66 reservoirs ubicated at the hydrographic basin of the Ebro River (Spain) was analyzed. Samples were collected in the summer season during the period 2010-2015, with the main purpose of evaluate the Trophic State and Ecological Potential according to the Water Framework Directive of the European Union. In this work we presented a representative overview of several consecutive years of the state of the reservoirs and their associated trophic status; methodology was to obtain statistically significant relationships between the phytoplankton community and main physicochemical water quality variables (water transparency, pH, chlorophyll a, total and soluble phosphorus, anoxic zone depth, nitrite, nitrate and ammonium concentrations). We provide data for retrospective comparative of the state of the reservoirs with previous and current studies in order to improve the management of these reservoirs, and to serve as data reference for future works in a context of global change (climate and pollution).

A groundbreaking integrated predictive model, termed Cyber Forensics Behavioral Analysis (CFBA), has been developed in an environment characterized by rapidly evolving and increasingly sophisticated cyber threats. This model merges Cyber Behavioral Sciences with Digital Forensics to enhance the prediction accuracy and effectiveness of cyber threats originating from specific Autonomous System Numbers (ASNs). It has been observed that traditional cybersecurity strategies, predominantly focused on technical aspects, must be improved in addressing the complex landscape of cyber threats. Consequently, a novel approach has been proposed in this research, combining technical expertise with insights into the behavior of cybercriminals, thereby addressing a significant gap in existing methodologies. A mixed-methods approach has been employed in the study, integrating quantitative and qualitative research methods. This approach has created a comprehensive framework incorporating digital forensics, cybersecurity, computer science, forensic psychology, and the cyber behavioral sciences which incorporates disciplines scuch as cyberpsychology and forensic cyberpsychology. The study is anchored around four key concepts: (1) Forensic Cyberpsychology, which focuses on understanding psychological aspects of cybercriminal behavior; (2) Digital Forensics, involving the collection and analysis of digital evidence from cyber incidents; (3) Predictive Modeling, which utilizes historical data and patterns to anticipate potential cyber threats; and (4) the Cyber Behavioral Analysis Metric (CBAM) and Cyber Behavioral Score (CBS), tools designed for evaluating and scoring ASNs based on their behavior in terms of cybersecurity threat risks. Challenges encountered in the development of this integration have been significant. Initial setbacks included the misalignment of traditional cyber defense methods with the evolving nature of cyber threats and the absence of a holistic approach in pre-existing models. Through the narrative of these challenges and the subsequent development of the CFBA model, the research highlights the necessity for an interdisciplinary approach to cybersecurity. The outcomes of this study are not merely theoretical but provide practical, actionable tools and frameworks that markedly improve the precision of predicting cyber threats, especially from ASNs. The CFBA model represents a significant shift in cybersecurity strategies, highlighting the importance of integrating behavioral insights with technical knowledge. The study emphasizes the need for ongoing research and collaboration in cybersecurity, advocating for an approach that is as comprehensive and multifaceted as the cyber threats it seeks to mitigate. This research has been conducted to contribute significantly to cybersecurity, offering new perspectives and methodologies in a rapidly changing domain.

In this study, we consider a Lambert series whose coefficients are the sum of divisors function. Utilizing the Lambert series in the sequel we introduce a normalized linear operator JR_(α,β) (z) by applying the convolution with Rabotnov function. We then, acquire sufficient conditions for JR_(α,β) (z) to be Univalent, Starlike and Convex respectively. In each component of this study, we expand the derived results by applying two Robin's inequalities, one of which is equivalent to the Riemann hypothesis.

The aim of article is to design a calm water resistance predictor based on Machine Learning Tools and development of a systematic series for battery-driven catamaran hull forms. Regression Trees (RT), Support Vector Machines (SVM), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) regression models are applied for dataset training on developed systematic series of catamarans. A hullform optimization was implemented for various catamarans including dimensional and hull coefficient parameters based on resistance and structural weight reduction and battery performance improvement. This paper provides a diverse database of catamaran hullform. Hence, an automated Matlab program was coded for geometry generation and cost function evaluation. Design distribution based on Lackenby transformation fulfills all design space and sequentially a novel self-blending method reconstructs new hullforms based on two parents blending. Finally, a machine learning approach was conducted on generated data of case study. This study shows that ANN algorithm correlates well with the measured resistance. Accordingly, a general and unique tool is proposed for optimized and desired design in first design stage.

Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CyanoHABs) are increasing in prevalence and severity globally and locally in the Great Lakes region. CyanoHABs have the potential to produce serious adverse human health effects due to the production of cyanotoxins from cyanobacteria. Common routes of exposure include recreational exposure (swimming, skiing, and boating), ingestion, and aerosolization of contaminated water sources. Cyanotoxins have been shown to adversely affect several major organ systems contributing to hepatotoxicity, gastrointestinal distress, and pulmonary inflammation. We present three pediatric case-reports that coincided with CyanoHABs exposure with a focus on presentation of illness, diagnostic work-up, and treatment of CyanoHAB-related illnesses. Potential cyanotoxin exposure occurred while swimming in the Maumee River and Maumee State Park in Northwest OH during the Summer months which coincide with peak CyanoHAB activity. Primary symptoms included generalized macular rash, fever, vomiting, diarrhea, and severe respiratory distress. Significant labs included leukocytosis and elevated C-reactive protein. All patients ultimately recovered with supportive care. Symptoms following potential cyanotoxin exposure coincide with multiple disease states representing an urgent need to develop specific diagnostic tests of exposure.

Today, there is a time series analysis that has gained significant popularity across various industries to provide effective solutions for any specific challenges. Artificial intelligence logic is generally used to solve time-series problems with the help of various frameworks that are available for the development of AI-based applications. Currently, there is a significant framework in Python that is driven by its comprehensive libraries and their practical implementations. Time series analysis can be built with the help of some specific models that give results to differentiate the efficiency and domains of great work. This paper focuses on three diverse libraries of Python to predict the Gulf stock exchange market. These libraries are prediction models that are helpful in predicting future values. These models utilized include SARIMA (Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average), Neural Prophet Model, and Fb Prophet model. Each model is trained using the provided datasets, which are followed by evaluation parameters such as MSE, RMSE, recall, MDAPE, accuracy, precision, etc. The main purpose of using these three models for stock market prediction is to find the better-suited models. In the past few decades, the stock market industry has seemed to have promising growth after 2022 onwards. This paper will help us make a significant decision about model usage for addressing such complex challenges. Especially, the research findings indicate that all three models demonstrate in different domains. SARIMA can perform well in overall prediction tasks, while the Prophet model works great with smaller datasets that contain seasonality trends.

The emergence of the Internet of Things (IoT) has led to the deployment of various types of sensors in many application fields, including environment monitoring, smart cities, health, industries, and others. The increasing number of connected devices has led to the creation of massive quantities of data that need to be analyzed. Typically, this data is ordered by time, as a time series. In this context, this paper presents a time series prediction model based on Recurrent Neural Networks in order to predict one step ahead. Result obtained through five Internet of Things monitoring datasets, showed that the Recurrent Neural Network obtained better performance that the prediction methods, ARIMA and SVM.

Meteorological observations over the last four decades are of paramount importance to investigate the ongoing climate change. The assessment of the reliability of any climatic time series is thus mandatory to draw correct conclusions. This evaluation involves homogeneity tests to detect artificial discontinuities whose identification is facilitated by metadata availability. In this work, daily minimum and maximum temperature measurements collected in Padua, Italy, between 1980 and 2022, are examined. Hourly observations began in 1993 and since the aim is to study long term behavior of the temperature, the focus is on daily averages and extremes. Over this period, the weather station of Padua center underwent many changes, in location or instrument; therefore, some tests have been used to identify and remove the effects of these variations and obtain a homogeneous time series. The homogeneity tests applied must be able to identify change-points both in the middle and at the extremes of the series. Some well-known absolute tests have been applied to investigate shift in the mean value: Standard Normal Homogeneity test (SNH), Buishand U and range tests, Pettitt test, F-test, STARS. Some relative tests have been applied too, which are generally more reliable than absolute tests, because they consider the information from neighboring stations. As relative tests rely on the homogeneity and quality of the reference series, several nearby stations and two reanalysis datasets (ERA5 and MERIDA) have been considered, to enhance the picture of the local situation and provide more robust conclusions. The applied tests identify change-points in the years in which a change in instrument or location of the station have occurred, confirming that these changes have compromised the homogeneity of the series. The sub-series obtained splitting the observations in correspondence of these change-points have been homogenized with respect a selected period; corrections must be applied also to future measurements to extend the time series properly.

Floods are some of the most devastating crop disasters in Southeast Asia. The Pampanga River Basin in the Philippines is a representative flood-prone area, where cultivation patterns are varied according to the flood risk. However, quantitative analyses on the effects of flooding on cultivation patterns remain quite limited. Accordingly, this study analyzes MODIS LAI data (MCD15A2H) from 2007 to 2022 to evaluate annual and geographical differences in cultivation patterns in the Candaba municipality of the basin. The analysis consists of two stages of hierarchical clustering: a first stage for area classification and a second stage for the classification of annual LAI dynamics. As a result, Candaba is divided into four areas, which are found to be partly consistent with the observed flood risk. Subsequently, the annual LAI dynamics in each area are divided into two or three clusters. The obvious differences among the clusters are caused by flooding in the late rainy season, delaying the start of planting in the dry season. The clusters also indicate that the cultivation patterns slightly changed over the 16 years of the study period. The results of this study suggest that the two-stage clustering approach provides an effective tool for the analysis of MODIS LAI data when considering cultivation patterns characterized by annual and geographical differences.

The distribution laws of various natural and anthropogenic processes in the world around us are stochastic in nature. The development of mathematics and, in particular, of stochastic modelling allows us to study regularities in such processes. In practice, stochastic modelling finds a huge number of applications in various fields, including finance and economics. In this work, some particular applications of stochastic processes in finance are examined in the conditions of financial crisis. More specifically, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and Modified Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE) models, which have been previously developed by the authors to predict assets’ prices of four Bulgarian companies, are validated on a time period during the crisis. Estimated rates of return are calculated from the models for one period ahead. The errors are estimated and the models are compared. The predicted return values with each of the two approaches are used to derive optimal risk portfolios based on the Markowitz Model. The resulting portfolios are compared in terms of distribution (weights of the stocks), risk and rate of return.

We examine a linear q-difference differential equation which is singular in complex time t at the origin. Its coefficients are polynomial in time and bounded holomorphic on horizontal strips in one complex space variable. The equation under study represents a q-analog of a singular partial differential equation, recently investigated by the author, which comprises Fuchsian operators and entails a forcing term that combines polynomial and logarithmic type functions in time. A sectorial holomorphic solution to the equation is constructed as a double complete Laplace transform in both time t and its complex logarithm log t and Fourier inverse integral in space. For a particular choice of the forcing term, this solution turns out to solve some specific nonlinear q-difference differential equation with polynomial coefficients in some positive rational power of t. Asymptotic expansions of the solution relatively to time t are investigated. A Gevrey type expansion is exhibited in a logarithmic scale. Furthermore, a formal asymptotic expansion in power scale is displayed, revealing a new fine structure involving remainders with both Gevrey and q-Gevrey type growth.

In this paper we compare the effects of forecasting demand using individual (disaggregated) components versus first aggregating the components either fully or into several clusters. Demand streams are assumed to follow autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes. Using individual demand streams will always lead to a superior forecast compared to any aggregates, however we show that if several aggregated clusters are formed in a structured manner then these subaggregated clusters will lead to a forecast with minimal increase in mean-squared forecast error. We show this result based on theoretical MSFE obtained directly from the models generating the clusters as well as estimated MSFE obtained directly from simulated demand observations. We suggest a pivot-algorithm, that we call Pivot Clustering, to create these clusters. We also provide theoretical results to investigate sub-aggregation, including for special cases such as, aggregating MA(1) streams and ARMA streams with similar or same parameters.

Time-series analysis is a widely used technique across various fields and industries, as it helps in understanding, predicting, and forecasting the behavior of data points over time. These fields include but are not limited to finance, economics, healthcare, transportation, etc. In the case of this paper, we have focused on finance. Predicting future values of financial time series offers several benefits. Accurate forecasts can help investors make better decisions about their investments. To predict future values, deep learning algorithms are commonly used since it is an effective method with complex data. In this study, we conduct a study that investigates the use of different data pre-processing techniques on deep learning algorithms in predicting the time series values. To conduct this experimental study, we utilize an open source software, which using long short-term memory technique as the representative deep learning technique, published in github software code repository platform. With this study, we investigate the effects of autoencoder and discrete wavelet transform data pre-processing techniques in time-series prediction. We discuss the details of the experimental study and report our results. The results show that time series prediction (using backtesting methodology) without any data pre-processing leads to 12.6% for mean absolute percentage error. The results also show that, time series prediction with the data preprocessing techniques (Wavelet Transform and Stacked Autoencoder) lead to 3.4%

Changes in sea level exhibit nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and multivariable characteristics, making traditional time series forecasting methods less effective in producing satisfactory results. To enhance the accuracy of the predictions of changes in sea level, this study introduced an improved VMD–EEMD–LSTM hybrid model. This model decomposes satellite altimetry data from near the Dutch coast using VMD, resulting in components of the Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF) with various frequencies and a residual sequence. EEMD further dissects the residual sequence obtained from VMD into second-order components. These IMFs decomposed by VMD and EEMD are utilized as features in the LSTM model for making predictions, culminating in the final forecasted results. The experimental results demonstrated significant improvements in the predictive performance compared with the VMD–LSTM model. The RMSE (root mean square error) decreased by an average of 58.68%, the MAE (mean absolute error) reduced by an average of 59.96%, and the R2 (coefficient of determination) increased by an average of 49.85% compared with the VMD–LSTM model. In comparison with the EEMD–LSTM model, the RMSE decreased by an average of 26.95%, the MAE decreased by an average of 28.00%, and the R2 increased by an average of 6.53%. The VMD–EEMD–LSTM model exhibited significantly improved predictive performance.

The Fengcheng Formation in the Mahu Sag of the Junggar Basin was generally composed of detritus, pyroclastic material, carbonates, and evaporites. During the process of sedimentation, the climate was arid or semi-arid. Due to the effect of high concentration and sodium-rich source, an alkaline lake was formed, and alkaline minerals were also preserved in the stratum. After the sediments were buried, three mineral assemblages were formed in the Fengcheng Formation, which are carbonate mineral assemblages (i.e., calcite + ferreous dolomite), reedmergnerite and carbonate mineral assemblages (i.e., reedmergnerite + calcite + ferreous dolomite), and reedmergnerite and alkaline mineral assemblages (i.e., reedmergnerite + shortite + trona), respectively. According to the homogenization temperature of reedmergnerite primary fluid inclusions, alkaline diagenesis of Fengcheng Formation is divided into early stage（≤100℃） and middle stage（＞100℃）, respectively. The former is characterized by the generation of ferreous saddle dolomite, quartz dissolution, and agglutination of the laumontite, which occurred under normal burial conditions. The latter is marked by the reedmergnerite’s appearance, which is correlated to deep hydrothermal activity controlled by faults. Finally, based on sedimentary and diagenetic factors, including climate, provenance, diagenetic surroundings, and the action of subsurface fluid, the alkaline deposition-diagenesis model for shale series in four stages of the Fengcheng Formation was established.

This paper aims to discuss the relationship between financial development and inflation in Kenya using time series data between 1973 and 2021. The short- and long-run impact of financial development on inflation remains an important issue in the empirical and theoretical literature especially for country specific, but has yet to receive significant research consideration. For this purpose, the paper uses an ARDL analysis method, which is considered an advanced analytical model. Empirical findings confirmed that financial development has a significant long-run impact on inflation in Kenya. On the contrary, results confirmed that there is no significant short-run effect of financial development on inflation. In addition, there is significant long-run and short-run negative relationship between interest rate and inflation. The results indicate significant long-run Granger and ARDL causality from financial development to inflation. The main policy implications of the empirical results of this paper suggest supervision of financial sector must be directed in a way that would stimulate a stable and a moderate inflation rate. In particular, both financial institution and government should enhance the infrastructures of the financial market and promote the utilisation of financial services.

The effects of wastewater step-feeding on the performance of Horizontal Subsurface Flow Constructed Wetlands (HSF CWs) are numerically investigated. The purpose is to check if this alternative feeding technique increases the ability of HSF CWs to remove pollutants. Two methodologies are used: Initially, the Tanks-In-series (TIS) methodology, based on Finite Volume Method (FVM), is analyzed by using the volumetric degradation coefficient λ. In this case the operation of CW is similar with a series of Continuous Stirred-Tank Reactors (CSTR), under steady conditions. Then, the Step-Feeding (SF) procedure is presented, when the CW is operated like a Plug Flow Reactor (PFR). The results show that the SF procedure does not improve the performance of HSF CWs on removing Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), operating under Mediterranean conditions.

This study presents a novel approach for predicting hierarchical short time series. In this article, our objective was to formulate long-term forecasts for household natural gas consumption by considering the hierarchical structure of territorial units within a country's administrative divisions. For this purpose, we utilized natural gas consumption data from Poland. The length of the time series was an important determinant of the data set. We contrast global techniques, which employ a uniform method across all time series, with local methods that fit a distinct method for each time series. Furthermore, we compare the conventional statistical approach with a machine learning (ML) approach. Based on our analyses, we devised forecasting methods for short time series that exhibit exceptional performance. We have demonstrated that global models provide better forecasts than local models. Among ML models, neural networks yielded the best results, with the MLP network achieving comparable performance to the LSTM network while requiring significantly less computational time.

Recently, we demonstrated the validity of anomalous numbers law, known as Newcomb-Benford´s law, at the mammalian neuromuscular transmission, considering different extracellular calcium concentrations . The present work continues to examine how alterations in extracellular solution modulate the first digit law in the context of the spontaneous release of acetylcholine from the neuromuscular junction. We investigated if the intervals of miniature potentials collected at the neuromuscular junction obey the law in a hyperkalemic environment. The analysis showed that the interval between the miniature potentials at high potassium concentrations follows Newcomb-Benford´s law. Also, our data allowed us to uncover a conformity fluctuation as a function of the number of intervals of the miniature potentials. Finally, we discuss the biophysical implications of the present findings.

Pacing strategy refers to the distribution of effort and speed throughout the race to achieve optimal performance. The study aims to understand whether the choice of pacing strategy in swimming depends on the length of competitions and how sex, age, and performance level influence this strategy. Participants were the finalists of the 800-meter and 1500-meter freestyle events at the elite and junior world championships in 2022-2023. Race outcomes and pacing parameters were compared between the two distances and across different groups of swimmers. Swimmers in both distances did not break world records. Pacing strategy generally followed a U-shape with significant differences in the frequency and duration of speed changes between the two distances. The 800-meter exhibited more frequent changes in acceleration while the 1500-meter events generally followed a more consistent time series pattern. There were differences in pacing strategies between males and females and between junior and elite swimmers. Swimmers closer to world records showed more consistent pacing patterns compared to those farther from records. The study suggests that pacing strategies are influenced by race distance, sex, age, and performance level. The research highlights the complex interplay between physiological and psychological factors that shape a swimmer's decision-making during a race.

Landsat and Sentinel-2 data archives provide ever-increasing amounts of satellite data for studying land cover and land use change (LCLUC) over the past four decades. However, the availability of cloud-, shadow-, and snow-free observations varies spatially and temporally due to climate and satellite data acquisition schemes. Spatio-temporal heterogeneity poses a major issue for some time-series analysis approaches, but can be addressed with pixel-based compositing that generates temporally equidistant cloud-free or near-cloud free synthetic images. Although much consideration is given to methods identifying the ‘best’ pixel value for each composite, determining the aggregation period receives less attention and is often done arbitrary, or based on expert intuition. Here, we evaluated data compositing windows ranging from five days to one year for 1984-2021 Landsat and 2015-2021 Sentinel‑2 time series across Europe. We considered separate and joint use of both data archives and analyzed spatio-temporal availability of composites during each calendar year and pixel-specific growing season. We reported mean annual composites’ availability investigating differences among biogeographical regions, checked feasibility of pan‑European analyses for three LCLUC applications based on annual, monthly and 10-day composites, and analyzed the shortest feasible compositing window ensuring ≥50% temporal data availability and interpolation of the remaining composites for individual years and across a variety of medium- and long‑term time windows. Our results highlighted low data coverage in the 1980s, 1990s, and in 2012, as well as spatial variability in data availability driven by climate and orbit overlaps, which altogether impact spatio-temporal consistency of medium- and long-term time series, limiting feasibility of some LCLUC analyses. We demonstrated that prior to 2011 monthly composites ensured overall 50-62% data coverage for each calendar year, and ~75% afterwards, with further increase to ~82% when Landsat and Sentinel-2 were combined. Temporal consistency of monthly composites was overall low and temporal interpolation augmenting up to 50% missing data each year and across a time window of interest, ensured feasibility of analyses. Applications based on shorter than monthly composites were challenging without joining Landsat and Sentinel‑2 archives after 2015, and beyond the Mediterranean biogeographical region. Using pixel-specific growing season data typically boosted data availability in most geographies and diminished most of the latitudinal differences, but feasibility of complete time series with sub-monthly compositing windows was still restricted to the most recent years, and required data interpolation. Overall, our analyses provided a detailed assessment of Landsat and Sentinel-2 data availability over Europe, and based on selected application examples, highlighted often lacking spatio-temporal consistency of time series with sub-monthly compositing windows and long-time periods, which might hinder feasibility of some LCLUC applications.

Building electric energy is characterized by a significant increase of its uses (e.g. vehicle charging), a rapidly declining cost of all related data collection and a proliferation of smart grid concepts, including diverse and flexible electricity pricing schemes. Not surprisingly, an increased number of approaches have been proposed for its modeling and forecasting. In this work, we place our emphasis on three forecasting related issues. First, on the forecasting explainability, i.e. the ability to understand and explain to the user what shapes the forecast. To this extent we rely on concepts and approaches that are inherently explainable, such as the evolutionary approach of genetic programming (GP) and its associated symbolic expressions, as well as the so-called SHAP (SHapley Additive eXplanations) values, which is a well established model agnostic approach for explainability, especially in terms of feature importance. Second, we investigate the impact of the training timeframe on the forecasting accuracy; this is driven by the realization that a fast training would allow for faster deployment of forecasting in real life solutions. And third, we explore the concept of counterfactual analysis on actionable features, i.e. features that the user can really act upon and which therefore present an inherent advantage when it comes to decision support. We have found that SHAP values can provide important insights into the model explainability. As for GP models, we have found comparable and in some cases superior accuracy when compared to its neural-network and time-series counterparts but a rather questionable potential to produce crisp and insightful symbolic expressions, allowing a better insight into the model performance. We have also found, and report here on an important potential especially for practical, decision support, solutions of counterfactuals built on actionable features and short training timeframes.

PM-Gati-Shakti Initiative, integration of ministries, including railways, ports, waterways, logistic infrastructure, mass transport, airports, and roads. Aimed at enhancing connectivity and bolstering the competitiveness of Indian businesses, the initiative focuses on six pivotal pillars known as "Connectivity for Productivity": comprehensiveness, prioritization, optimization, synchronization, analytical, and dynamic. In this study, we explore the application of these pillars to address the problem of "Maximum Demand Forecasting in Delhi." Electricity forecasting plays a very significant role in the power grid as it is required to maintain a balance between supply and load demand at all times, to provide a quality electricity supply, for Financial planning, generation reserve, and many more. Forecasting helps not only in Production Planning but also in Scheduling like Import / Export which is very often in India and mostly required by the rural areas and North Eastern Regions of India. As Electrical Forecasting includes many factors which cannot be detected by the models out there, We use Classical Forecasting Techniques to extract the seasonal patterns from the daily data of Maximum Demand for the Union Territory Delhi. This research contributes to the power supply industry by helping to reduce the occurrence of disasters such as blackouts, power cuts, and increased tariffs imposed by regulatory commissions. The forecasting techniques can also help in reducing OD and UD of Power for different regions. We use the Data provided by a department from the Ministry of Power and use different forecast models including Seasonal forecasts for daily data.

A distinction is made between data rescue (i.e., copying, digitizing and archiving) and data recovery that implies deciphering, interpreting and transforming early instrumental readings and their metadata to obtain high-quality datasets in modern units. This requires a multidisciplinary approach that includes: palaeography and knowledge of Latin and other languages to read the handwritten logs and additional documents; history of science to interpret the original text, data e metadata within the cultural frame of the 17th, 18th and early 19th century; physics and technology to recognize bias of early instruments or calibrations, or to correct for observational bias; astronomy to calculate and transform the original time in canonical hours that started from twilight. The liquid-in-glass thermometer was invented in 1641 and the earliest temperature records started in 1654. Since then, different types of thermometers were invented, based on the thermal expansion of air or selected thermometric liquids with deviation from linearity. Reference points, thermometric scales, calibration methodologies were not comparable, and not always adequately described. Thermometers had various locations and exposures, e.g., indoor, outdoor, on windows, gardens or roofs, facing different directions. Readings were made only one or a few times a day, not necessarily respecting a precise time schedule: this bias is analysed for the most popular combinations of reading times. The time was based on sundials and local Sun, but the hours were counted starting from twilight. In 1789-90 Italy changed system and all cities counted hours from their lower culmination (i.e., local midnight), so that every city had its local time; in 1866, all the Italian cities followed the local time of Rome; in 1893, the whole Italy adopted the present-day system, based on the Coordinated Universal Time and the time zones. In 1873, when the International Meteorological Committee (IMO) was founded, later transformed in World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a standardization of instruments and observational protocols was established, and all data became fully comparable. In the early instrumental period, from 1654 to 1873, the comparison, correction and homogenization of records is quite difficult, mainly because of the scarcity or even absence of metadata. This paper deals about this confused situation, discussing the main problems, but also the methodologies to recognize missing metadata, distinguish indoor from outdoor readings; correct and transform early datasets in unknown or arbitrary units into modern units; finally, in which cases it is possible to reach the quality level required by WMO. The focus is to explain the methodology needed to recover early instrumental records, i.e., the operations that should be performed to interpret, correct, and transform the original raw data into a high-quality dataset of temperature, usable for climate studies.

Retailers must have accurate sales forecasts to operate their businesses efficiently and effectively and to remain competitive in the marketplace. Global forecasting models like RNNs can be a powerful tool for forecasting in retail settings, where multiple time series are often interrelated and influenced by a variety of external factors. By including covariates in a forecasting model, we can better capture the various factors that can influence sales in a retail setting. This can help improve the accuracy of our forecasts and enable better decision-making for inventory management, purchasing, and other operational decisions. In this study we investigate how the accuracy of global forecasting models is affected by the inclusion of different potential demand covariates. To ensure the significance of the study's findings, we used the M5 forecasting competition's openly accessible and well-established dataset. The results obtained from the DeepAR models, which were trained on various combinations of features including time, price, events, and IDs, suggest that individually only the features corresponding to IDs improve the baseline model. However, when all the features are used together, the best performance is achieved, indicating that the individual relevance of each feature is emphasized when the information is given jointly. Comparing the model with features to the model without features, there is an improvement of 1.76\% for MRMSSE and 6.47\% for MMASE.

Accurately predicting electrical signals of three-phase Direct Torque Control (DTC) induction motors is crucial for optimal motor performance and effective condition monitoring. However, multiple DTC motors’ complexity and operating conditions’ variations pose challenges for traditional prediction methods. To overcome these challenges, we propose an innovative approach that combines Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) to transform electrical motor simulation data and a Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) network to forecast processed motor data. By transforming the DTC induction motor signals from the time domain to the frequency domain, we enhance the capability of learning models to capture subtle differences and generate various input features. The Bi-LSTM model effectively captures both forward and backward dependencies in time series data, enabling accurate prediction of electrical signals. We evaluate the proposed approach using our simulated dataset and compare the proposed method to a state-of-the-art model, the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), demonstrating its effectiveness in improving the accuracy and reliability of induction motor signals forecasting. The finding provides valuable insights for advancing motor control and operation in industrial applications.

Accurate prediction of crop production is essential in effectively managing agricultural countries' food security and economic resilience. This study evaluates the performance of statistical and machine learning-based methods for large-scale crop production forecasting. We predict the quarterly production of 325 crops (including fruits, vegetables, cereals, non-food, and industrial crops) across 83 provinces in the Philippines. Using a comprehensive dataset of 10,949 time series over 13 years, we demonstrate that a global forecasting approach using a state-of-the-art deep learning architecture, the transformer, significantly outperforms traditional local forecasting approaches built on statistical and baseline methods. By leveraging cross-series information, our proposed way is scalable and works well even with time series that are short, sparse, intermittent, or exhibit structural breaks/regime shifts. The results of this study further advance the field of applied forecasting in agricultural production and provide a practical and effective decision-support tool for policymakers that oversee the farm sector on a national scale.

Comparisons of power flows and efficiencies in two structurally quite similar cylindrical series-parallel planetary gear systems (PGSs) were performed in three separate parts of this paper. Each of these single degree of freedom (DoF) systems consists of three different 2KH subsystems connected in series-parallel. The main goal was to prove that apart from complex, structurally and dynamically coupled PGSs, there are also complex and only structurally coupled PGSs, in which the phenomenon of power flow circulation inside closed loops does not occur. Such a half-coupled type of PGS is herein called pseudo-coupled. Therefore, Part I discusses in detail the geometry, kinematics and statics of coupled PGSs in order to determine power flow paths. A comparison of the directions of power flow in both types of PGSs can be made in Part II after determining the power flow paths in the second planetary gear in a similar way. The directions of power flow in both types of PGSs were determined in a relatively simple way, thanks to the distinction between active and passive torques and thus active and passive shafts of individual subsystems. The efficiency comparison made in Part III will show whether power circulation has an influence on the efficiency value, at least in these two types of PGSs.

Data can be illustrated in shapes, and the shapes could provide insight for data modeling and information extraction. Topological data analysis provides an alternative insight in biomedical data analysis and knowledge discovery with the algebra topology tools. In present work, we study the application of topological data analysis for personalized electrocardiographic signal classification toward arrhythmia analysis. Using phase space reconstruction technique, the signal samples are converted into point clouds for topological analysis facility. With topological techniques the persistence landscapes from the point clouds are extracted as features to perform the arrhythmia classification task. We find that the proposed method is robust to the training set size, with only a training set size of 20% percents, the normal heartbeat class are 100% recognized, ventricular beats for 97.13%, supra-ventricular beats for 94.27% and fusion beats for 94.27% within the corresponding experiments. The property of keeping high performance when using smaller training sample proves that the proposed method is especially applicable to personalized analysis. With the present study, we show that the topological data analysis technique could be a useful tool in biomedical signal analysis, and provide powerful ability in personalized analysis.

The Covid-19 pandemic and the subsequent implementation of lockdown measures have significantly impacted global electricity consumption, necessitating accurate energy consumption forecasts for optimal energy generation and distribution during a pandemic. In this study, we propose a new forecasting model called the Multivariate Multilayered LSTM with Covid-19 case injection ($\proposedModel$) for improved energy forecast during the next occurrence of a similar pandemic. We utilize data from commercial buildings in Melbourne, Australia during the Covid-19 pandemic to predict energy consumption and evaluate the model's performance against commonly used methods such as LSTM, Bi-LSTM, Linear Regression, Support Vector Machine and the previously published work of Multilayered LSTM (M-LSTM). The proposed forecasting model was analyzed using the following metrics of mean percent absolute error (MPAE), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), and $R^2$ score values. The model $\proposedModel$ demonstrates superior performance, achieving the lowest MPAE values of 0.061, 0.093, and 0.158 for data sets from 3 different buildings, respectively. Our results highlight the improved precision and accuracy of the model, providing valuable information for energy management and decision-making during the challenges posed by the occurrence of a pandemic like Covid-19 in the future.

The available direct gas dynamic tables provide the area ratio and the Prandtl-Meyer(P-M) angle of isentropic expansion of gas as functions of the Mach number. But finding the value of the Mach number in terms of area ratio or P-M angle requires an inverse function. Currently, the Mach number is determined by either interpolation from the direct gas dynamics tables, or the application of non-linear equation solvers using numerical methods. Both methods are approximate. In this paper inverse functions for Mach number in the form of Taylor’s series expansions are reported to develop the so-called inverse tables. The advantage of this approach is that the Mach number with a greater accuracy, referred to as nearly exact can be obtained by reading from the inverse table. In the presentation, the necessary equations and new tables that can be used by the scientific community will be disseminated. The data and computer programs are made available on GitHub through https://github.com/anillals/Inverse-gas-dynamic-tables- and-codes. A paper describing the complete mathematical steps in the derivation of the equations can be found at https://rdcu.be/dgrlf

The object of this paper is the analysis of isotropic rectangular thin plates supported (simply supported or clamped) along two opposite edges whereby the other edges have arbitrary support conditions; the plates are subjected to external bending moments, concentrated or distributed, and perpendicular to the supported edges. The standard approach to this problem is to replace the bending moment with a couple of forces infinitely close and to use the known expressions of efforts and deformations for the plate subjected to concentrated forces; the results are then related to the first derivatives of those efforts and deformations with respect to the position of application of the load. In this study, the external bending moment was expanded into a Fourier series, leading to a distributed external bending moment, and the boundary conditions and continuity equations were applied. Various types of rectangular plates were analyzed, as well as plates of infinite length whose results were identical to those in the literature. In addition, results for cantilever plates of infinite length were presented.

Based on the prosed criterion of the type of heating, a classification of the sources of pulsed electron beams was carried out, for better understanding both the nature of the thermal processes occurring under irradiation and for predicting their suitability for certain applications. The melting thresholds of materials were calculated over the wide ranges of accelerating voltages and pulse durations. On the basis of calculations, a refractoriness series of metals for surface-volume pulsed heating was proposed.

In this paper, Akbari-Ganji's and Taylor series methods are applied to find analytical solutions to nonlinear differential equations that arise in an immobilized-cell photobioreactor. Approximate analytical expressions for substrate and product concentrations and both liquid and gas phases for various parameter values are derived using both methods. Efficiency, accuracy, and convergence of the two methods relative to highly accurate numerical methods are investigated to establish reliable profiles of these two methods for solving general nonlinear equations that model various physical phenomena. Numerical simulations are presented to validate the theoretical investigations.

Off-road vehicles and transportation are vital for agricultural economics, yet the transition to green energies is challenging. To make this application easier, a tool that enables the testing of heavy-duty off-road vehicles in various scenarios was created. Based on the methods of the World Harmonized Transient Cycle, a new Hybrid Operational Cycle that reflects the features of agricultural work was created and applied in a graphical model simulation. This was a newly developed methodology. The cycle and the model were based on gathered research data. A numerical model of a medium-power tractor with an internal combustion engine and a series-hybrid setup was created, and simulations were performed in Matlab and AVL Cruise. The research compared both diesel and hybrid vehicles in terms of their power production, fuel consumption, and efficiency in fieldwork and transportation scenarios. The research showed that a series-hybrid transmission can achieve an efficiency similar to that of tractors with a continuously variable transmission (CVT), but with the use of an electric powertrain, there is still an opportunity to exploit energy regeneration in transportation and under low-load conditions. The designed model also may be used for the development of control algorithms for hybrid drives and the improvement of the efficiency thereof.

We study the divisibility properties of the constant terms of certain meromorphic modular forms for Hecke groups. We relate those properties to those of some sequences that have already appeared in the literature. For possible use in later drafts, we show how to invert the map taking a Laurent series $f(x) = 1/x + \sum_{n=0}^{\infty}a_{n+1} x^n$ to the sequence of constant terms of its positive powers. At the end of the article, we construct from elementary arithmetic functions some meromorphic but not necessarily modular functions and study their constant terms.

GNSS time series prediction plays a significant role in monitoring crustal plate motion, landslide detection, and maintenance of the global coordinate framework. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), a deep learning model has been widely applied in the field of high-precision time series prediction especially when combined with Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) to form the VMD-LSTM hybrid model. To further improve the prediction accuracy of the VMD-LSTM model, this paper proposes a dual variational modal decomposition long short-term memory (DVMD-LSTM) model to effectively handle the noise in GNSS time series prediction. This model extracts fluctuation features from the residual terms obtained after VMD decomposition to reduce the prediction errors associated with residual terms in the VMD-LSTM model. Daily E, N, and U coordinate data recorded at multiple GNSS stations between 2000 and 2022 are used to validate the performance of the proposed DVMD-LSTM model. The experimental results demonstrate that compared to the VMD-LSTM model, the DVMD-LSTM model achieves significant improvements in prediction performance across all measurement stations. The average RMSE is reduced by 9.86%, and the average MAE is reduced by 9.44%. Furthermore, the average accuracy of the optimal noise model for the predicted results is improved by 36.50%, and the average speed accuracy of the predicted results is enhanced by 33.02%. These findings collectively attest to the superior predictive capabilities of the DVMD-LSTM model, thereby enhancing the reliability of the predicted results.

Noise model selection criteria has a significant impact on identifying the stochastic noise proper-ties of any GNSS daily coordinate time series. The low-frequency random walk noise existing in these time series could lead to overestimation of the tectonic rate, so it is of great significance to accurately detect the random walk component. This study focuses on noise model estimation cri-terion (BIC_tp) derived from the AIC and the BIC by introducing 2π factors. It is more sensitive to abnormal steps (random jumps). Using observation data from 72 GNSS stations from 1992 to 2022 and simulated data, four combined noise models are used to explore the impacts of time se-ries lengths (ranging from2 to 24 years) and data loss (between 2% and 30%) on noise models and velocity estimation. The results show that as the time length increased, the selected optimal noise model, and the estimated uncertainty of the tectonic trend with different data gap, gradually con-verge. When the time length is short (less than 8 years), it could lead to the FNRWWN, FNWN, and PLWN models being mistakenly estimated as GGMWN models, thereby affecting the accura-cy of determining the station velocity parameters. When the time length is 12 years, the RW noise component is more probably detected, As the time length increases, the impact of RW on velocity uncertainty is weakened. Finally, we conclude that for a time series with a minimum time length of 12 years, both the selection of the optimal stochastic noise model and the estimation of the ve-locity parameters are reliable.

Time series (TS)-based predictions are made by examining the behaviour of historical data to forecast future values. Multiple industries; such as stock market trading, power load forecasting, medical monitoring, and intrusion detection; frequently use it. Several variables; such as the performance of other markets as well as the economic situation of a country which affect its market performance; significantly affect the prediction of stock market prices. Therefore, this present study uses numerous variables; such as the opening, lowest, highest, and closing prices; to predict the indices of the stock market of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Successfully accomplishing an investment goal largely depends on choosing the right stocks to buy, sell, or maintain. The project's output is the projected closing prices (regression) over the next seven days, which helps investors make the best decisions. This present study used exponential smoothing (ES) to remove noise from the input data obtained from the Saudi Stock Exchange, or Tadawul, before using a multivariate long short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning (DL) algorithm to forecast stock market prices. The proposed multivariate LSTMDL model had satisfactory prediction rates of 97.49% and 92.19% for the univariate model. Therefore, it can be used to effectively predict stock market prices. The results also indicate that DL as well as multiple sources of information can be used to accurately predict stock markets.

The unstable international economic situation is reflected in the supply chain stress, lack or increased cost of some raw materials, fuel or semi-finished products is forcing organizations to perform new optimization initiatives in the utilization of their equipment and assets pointed to obtain the maximum value from them, while maintaining and even improving the quality of their products. The achievement of these objectives involves the reduction or minimization of equipment downtime to maintain the advantage over their competitors and ensure the organization's competitiveness. The intelligent maintenance system (IMS) provides adequate support for decision-making related to equipment maintenance, since poor maintenance results in unplanned stoppages, with the consequent additional cost and increased customer dissatisfaction, and an over-maintenance can result in an additional labor cost, time and the replacement of parts that are in good conditions. The utilization of new tools and technologies introduced by Industry 4.0 offers multiple opportunities for enhancement through communication and computerized data processing, aiming to improve the maintainability of a hydrogen compressor using neural networks based on attention mechanisms combined with linear regression.

This paper aims to analyze arbitrarily loaded isotropic rectangular thin plates with two opposite edges supported (simply supported or clamped), from which one or both are clamped, and the other edges have arbitrary support conditions. Rectangular thin plates with two opposite edges simply supported are routinely analyzed using for the deflection the simple trigonometric series of Lévy or the double trigonometric series of Navier, while the loads are expanded in Fourier series. In this paper the flexibility method (or force method) of the linear beam theory was applied whereby the unknowns were the bending moments along the opposite edges; in this regard, the primary system was the plate simply supported along the above-mentioned opposite edges and subjected to the external loads, system solved using the Lévy solution, and the redundant system was the plate simply supported along the opposite edges and subjected to bending moments along those edges. In the redundant system, a modified Lévy solution was introduced to account for the edge moments. The compatibility equations (vanishing of the slopes at selected positions of the opposite edges) were set to determine the unknowns and so the efforts in the plate. The results obtained were in good agreement with the exact results.

In this study, we meticulously compared the practical performance of four bootstrap methods for assessing the significance of causal analysis in time series data, recognizing that their evaluation has not been sufficiently conducted in the field. The methods investigated were uncorrelated Phase Randomization Bootstrap (uPRB), which generates surrogate data with no cross-correlation between variables by randomizing the phase in the frequency domain; Time Shift Bootstrap (TSB), which generates surrogate data by randomizing the phase in the time domain; Stationary Bootstrap (SB), which calculates standard errors and constructs confidence regions for weakly dependent stationary observations; and AR-sieve bootstrap (ARSB), a resampling method based on autoregressive (AR) models that approximates the underlying data-generating process. Our study found that the AR-sieve bootstrap (ARSB) method outperformed the others in detecting both self-excitation and causality among variables. In contrast, the uncorrelated phase-randomized bootstrap (uPRB) and Stationary Bootstrap (SB) methods demonstrated limitations in specific scenarios. This detailed comparison highlights the need for selecting suitable bootstrap methods to ensure accurate results, ultimately guiding researchers in their choice of method for real data analysis.

As renewable energy generation prediction system has been introduced into the energy trading market, making a model to accurately predict the quantity of solar photovoltaic (PV) energy generation has become a significant problem. Moreover, to encourage an accurate prediction of the quantity of energy generation, an incentive system has been implemented for those who predict the quantity of solar PV energy under the error rate of 8%. Therefore, it has become more important to investigate and analyze current prediction technology numerically and develop more advanced prediction system. In this study, we tried to develop a better model to improve the accuracy of solar PV energy generation quantity by comparing three models made with gradient boosting machine (GBM), Model 1, Model 2, Model 3 respectively. Model 1 was built with the whole training data set without any additional preprocessing. After conducting some additional preprocessing procedure to predict solar energy generation more accurately, we made Model 2 with the whole training data set and Model 3 with only upper 10% of energy generation capacity. To compare the accuracy of three models, normalized mean absolute error (nMAE) was used as an evaluation index. The nMAE of Model 1 was 9.64% while the Model 2 showed 8.41%. Also, Model 3, which was constructed with the training set of upper 10% energy generation capacity, outperformed with the nMAE of 8.08%. For further study, to check the effectiveness of models constructed with GBM, a time series model, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), was also built and the nMAE was compared.

It is common knowledge that estimating the height component of GNSS stations in general is much more problematic than estimating the horizontal position. Many different effects, such as tectonic signals, non-tectonic signals, atmospheric delay, noise, etc., are known to affect the height component of GNSS stations more than the horizontal component. However, the height component of GNSS stations is still poorly estimated. In this study, the height time series of 37 continuous GNSS stations covering the 2014–2019 date range is used from the Turkish National Permanent GNSS Network-Active (TUSAGA-Active). Since it is easier to interpret the effects of the height component due to its topographic features and seasonal changes being more effective than in the rest of the country, stations were chosen in the Eastern Anatolia region of Turkey. The daily coordinates of the GNSS stations were obtained as a result of the GAMIT/GLOBK software solution. By applying time series analysis to the daily coordinate values of the stations, statistically significant trends, periodic and stochastic components of the stations were determined. As a result of the analysis, the vertical velocities of the GNSS stations and the standard deviations of the vertical velocities were determined. Furthermore, when the height components of continuous GNSS stations were examined, it was seen that there were seasonal effects, and it was investigated whether the height components were related to meteorological parameters. For that, simple linear regression analysis was performed to determine how dependent the height components of the continuous GNSS stations were on meteorological parameters. As a result of the analysis, the height components of the continuous GNSS stations are dependent on meteorological parameters such as temperature, pressure, relative humidity, wind speed, and precipitation. In addition, height component time series analysis of continuous GNSS stations was performed by using Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models from linear time series methods. As a result of the study, the performance of the ARMA modeling results again indicated the dependence of the height component of the continuous GNSS stations on the meteorological parameters.

In this study, we present a statistical forecasting framework and assess its efficacy using a range of established machine learning algorithms for predicting Particulate Matter (PM) concentrations in the Arctic, specifically in Pallas (FI), Reykjavik (IS), and Tromso (NO). Our framework leverages historical ground measures and 24-hour predictions from 9 models provided by the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) to provide PM predictions for the following 24 hours. Furthermore, we compare the performance of various memory cells based on artificial neural networks (ANN), including recurrent neural networks (RNNs), gated recurrent units (GRUs), long short-term memory networks (LSTMs), echo state networks (ESNs), and windowed multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs), which are commonly employed in time series forecasting tasks. Irrespective of the chosen memory cell type, our results demonstrate that the proposed framework consistently outperforms the CAM models in terms of mean squared error (MSE), with average improvements ranging from 25% to 40%. Additionally, we investigate the impact of outliers on the overall model performance.

With the growing popularity of smartphones, user identification has become an essential component of maintaining security and privacy. This study investigates how smartphone accelerometer data can be used to identify users, and it makes recommendations for the ideal application parts. Accelerometer data from the HMOG public dataset was used to train deep learning, conventional classifiers, and voting classifiers, which were then utilized to identify users. To enhance performance, feature selection and pre-processing techniques were researched. The results show that RFE feature selection outperforms other approaches and that LSTM followed by XGBoost has the best identification performance as indicated by a relatively large number of machine learning performance measures. The proposed identification system nevertheless performed well and outperformed existing methods, which were principally created and tested on the same HMOG public smartphone dataset, even with a larger number of users. Further work would be necessary for such an application to reach its full potential, though.

The global demand for energy has been steadily increasing due to population growth, urbanization, and industrialization. Numerous researchers worldwide are striving to create precise forecasting models for predicting energy consumption to manage supply and demand effectively. In this research, a time-series forecasting model based on multivariate multilayered long short-term memory (LSTM) is proposed for forecasting energy consumption and tested using data obtained from commercial buildings in Melbourne, Australia: the Advanced Technologies Center, Advanced Manufacturing and Design Center, and Knox Innovation, Opportunity, and Sustainability Center buildings. This research specifically identifies the best forecasting method for subtropical conditions and evaluates its performance by comparing it with the most used methods at present, including LSTM, bidirectional LSTM, and linear regression. The proposed multivariate multilayered LSTM model was assessed by comparing mean average error (MAE), root-mean-square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values with and without labeled time. Results indicate that the proposed model exhibits optimal performance with improved precision and accuracy. Specifically, the proposed LSTM model achieved a decrease in MAE by 30%, RMSE by 25%, and MAPE by 20% compared to the LSTM method. Moreover, it outperformed the bidirectional LSTM method with a reduction in MAE by 10%, RMSE by 20%, and MAPE by 18%. Furthermore, the proposed model surpassed linear regression with a decrease in MAE by 2%, RMSE by 7%, and MAPE by 10%. These findings highlight the significant performance increase achieved by the proposed multivariate multilayered LSTM model in energy consumption forecasting.

In this paper, we compile the fractional power series method and the Laplace transform to design a new algorithm for solving the fractional Volterra integro-differential equation. For that, we assume the Laplace power series (LPS) solution in terms of power q=1m,m∈Z+, where the fractional derivative of order α=qγ for which γ∈Z+. This assumption will help us to write the integral, the kernel, and the nonhomogeneous terms as a LPS with the same power. The recurrence relations for finding the series coefficients can be constructed using this form. To demonstrate the algorithm's accuracy, the residual error is defined and calculated for several values of the fractional derivative. Two strongly nonlinear examples are discussed to provide the efficiency of the algorithm. The algorithm gains powerful results for this kind of problem. Under Caputo meaning the obtained results are illustrated numerically, and graphically. Geometrically, the behavior of the solution declares that the changing of the fractional derivative parameter values' in their domain alters the style of the attained solution in a symmetrical meaning and fully coinciding to the ordinary derivative value'. From these simulations, the results report that the recommended novel algorithm is a straightforward, accurate, and superb tool to generate analytic-approximate solutions for Integral, and integro-differental equations of fractional order.

Coastal wave modeling and forecasting are essential in oceanography, sustainable marine energy, and ocean engineering. Precise forecasting of wave speed and direction are crucial for offshore operations, marine energy, risk management, environmental management, coastal and sustainable maritime management. The coastline of Brunei Darussalam can generate between 15 and 126 Giga Watt of wave energy. In this experimental research, we used two numerical approaches, the finite difference, and spectral element methods, to model and simulate wave speed and direction. We calculated the mean error between numerical and analytical solutions. We proposed a novel, promising, univariate time series forecasting model by combining the Long Short-Term (LSTM) with KerasTuner hyperparameters tuning and optimization techniques. This method helps us to improve the accuracy and efficiency of time-series forecasting.. The experimental data was computed from high-precision Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) sensor data. This research is part of the preliminary feasibility analysis of wave energy production in Brunei Darussalam and net zero commitment for a sustainable environment. Seven independent forecast experiments were performed for wave speed and direction in degree and radian units for 1, 3, 6, 8, 10, 12, and 24 hours. Mean squared error (MSE) was adopted as a metric for both training and testing. The experimental results reveal that the wave speed forecast has the lowest MSE compared to direction, regardless of the unit of measure, but has a longer duration. In addition, the direction forecast in the degree unit has the lowest errors compared to the unit of radians; the latter has a longer running time than the former. The model has delivered optimal results throughout the experiments with minor training and test errors. We conducted a thorough evaluations on two benchmark time series datasets, which include the study dataset and air quality index dataset, to validate the performance of the proposed model with other models. The proposed model outperforms cutting-edge forecasting models, such as the conventional LSTM, ARIMA, and Prophet. The model has the slightest forecast error compared to the existing literature’s result.

Deep learning has been applied in many areas that have had a significant impact on applications that improves real-life challenges. The success of deep learning in a wide range of areas is due in part to the use of activation functions, which are particularly effective at solving non-linear problems. Activation functions are a key focus for researchers in artificial intelligence who aim to improve the performance of neural networks. This article provides a comprehensive explanation and comparison of different activation functions, with a focus on the arc tangent and its variations specifically. The paper presents experimental results that show that variations of the arc tangent using irrational numbers such as pi, the golden ratio, and Euler’s number, as well as a self-arctan function, produce promising results. Since we experimented with promising activation functions on two different problems, and datasets, we reached a result that different irrationals work well for different problems. In other words, arctan ϕ gives the best results mostly for multiclass classification and arctan e gives the best results for time series prediction problems. The paper focuses on a multiclass classification problem applied to the Reuters Newswire dataset and a time-series prediction problem on Türkiye energy trade value to show the impacts of activation functions.

In recent years, additive manufacturing of products made from 5000 series alloys has grown in popularity for marine and automotive applications. In this work, we compare of mechanical properties characteristics of aluminum alloy 5056 material produced by wire-arc additive technology and rolling. We carried out tension tests under quasi-static loading and impact toughness tests under impact loading. The results show that upon similar ultimate tensile strength and ductility, material after additive manufacturing demonstrates decreased resistance against dynamic loading than material manufactured by the typical method of casting and rolling. This decrease in properties was explained through macro- and microstructure analysis.

Fluctuating stock prices make it difficult for investors to see investment opportunities. One tool that can help investors overcome this is forecasting techniques. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is one of deep learning methods used in forecasting time series. The training and success of deep learning is strongly influenced by the selection of hyperparameters. This research uses a hybrid method between the Genetic Algorithm (GA) and LSTM to find a suitable model for predicting stock prices. GA is used in optimizing the architecture such as the number of epochs, window size, and the number of LSTM units in the hidden layer. Tuning optimizer is also carried out using several optimizers to achieve the best value. From method that has been applied, it shows that the method has a good level of accuracy with MAPE values below 10% in every optimizer used. The error rate generated is quite low, in case-1 with a minimum RMSE value of 93.03 and 94.40, & in case-2 with an RMSE value of 104.99 and 150.06 during training and testing. A fairly stable and small value is generated by setting it using the Adam Optimizer.

Many applications in agriculture as well as other related fields including natural resources, environment, health, and sustainability, depend on recent and reliable cropland maps. Cropland extent and intensity plays a critical input variable for the study of crop production and food security around the world. However, generating such variables manually is difficult, expensive, and time consuming. In this work, we discuss a cost effective, fast, and simple machine learning based approach to provide reliable cropland mapping model using satellite imagery. The study includes four test regions namely; Iran, Mozambique, Sri-Lanka, and Sudan where Sentinel-2 satellite imagery were obtained with assigned NDVI scores. The solution presented in this paper discusses a complete pipeline including data collection, time series reconstruction , and cropland extent and crop intensity mapping using machine learning models. The approach proposed managed to achieve high accuracy results ranging between 0.92 to 0.98 across the four test regions at hand.

Number of studies claim that tobacco control (TC) regulations are associated with reductions in smoking-related hospitalisation rates, however very few have estimated the impact of TC laws (TCL) at both countrywide and regional levels, and none of them - in relation to compliance with TC regulations. This study evaluates the effects of Russian TCL on hospital admission (HA) rates for pneumonia countrywide and in 10 Russian regions and the extent of these effects in connection with the compliance to TCL. Methods: HA rates for pneumonia during 2005–2019 were analysed to compare the periods before and after the adoption of TCL in 2013. An interrupted time series design and a Poisson regression model were used to estimate the immediate and long-term effects of TCL on pneumonia annual hospitalisation rates after the TCL adoption, compared with the pre-law period. The 10 Russian regions were compared using the TCL Implementation Scale (TCIS) developed on the basis of the results of Russian TC policy evaluation survey; Spearman’s rank correlation and linear regression models were employed. Results showed a 14.3% reduction in HA rates for pneumonia (RR 0.88; p=0.01) after the adoption of TCL in Russia with significant long-term effect after 2013 (RR 0.86; p=0.006). Regions with better enforcement of TCL exhibited greater reductions in pneumonia HA rates (rsp=−0.55; p=0.04); (=−4.21; p=0.02). Conclusions: TCL resulted in a sustained reduction in pneumonia hospitalisation rates, but these effects, varying by region, may depend on the scale of the TCL enforcement.

The use of the voice of the customer as a main input to guide decision making towards customer centricity strategies has become a necessity for companies. This research proposes a structured method of textual processing using the KDD (Knowledge Discovery Databases) methodology applied to the tweets of users of Colombian public sector companies, through the analysis of temporal sentiments and topic modeling to identify the areas in which actions should be taken to improve the perception of service. To fulfill such purpose, tweets from January to June 2022 are processed, followed by a temporal analysis of the evolution of the sentiment based on 3 enriched dictionaries; after, the LDA (Linear Discriminant Analysis) algorithm is implemented to find the areas with ailment for the user, in addition to propose a method to homologate the CIER (Comisión de Integración Energética Regional) survey. Finally, metrics are detailed to follow up the perception of the service. It is concluded that for the Acueducto the topic with the highest number of complaints is related to "Water truck request", for Enel "Servide Outages" and for Vanti: " Case solution and request information". Also, the homologation of 3 of the 5 pillars on which the CIER survey is based is presented.

Accurate detection and quantification of regional vegetation trends is essential for understanding the dynamics of landscape ecology and vegetation distribution. We applied a comprehensive trend analysis to satellite data to describe geo-spatial changes in vegetation along the Pacific slope of Peru and northern Chile, from sea level to the continental divide, a region characterised by biologically unique and highly sensitive arid and semi-arid environments. Our statistical analyses show broad regional patterns of positive trends in EVI, called “greening” alongside patterns of “browning” where trends are negative between 2000 and 2020. The coastal plain and foothills, up 1000m, contain notable greening of the coastal Lomas and newly irrigated agricultural lands occurring alongside browning trends related to changes in land use practices and urban development. Strikingly, the precordilleras show a distinct ’greening strip’ which extends from approximately 6°S to 22°S, with an altitudinal trend; ascending from the tropical lowlands (170-780 m) in northern Peru, to the subtropics (1000-2800 m) in central Peru, and temperate zone (2600-4300 m) in southern Peru and northern Chile. We find that the geographical characteristics of the greening strip do not match climate zones previously established by Köppen and Geiger. Greening and browning trends in the coastal deserts and the high Andes lie within well defined climatic and life zones, producing variable but identifiable trends. However, the distinct Pacific slope greening presents an unexpected distribution with respect to the regional Köppen-Geiger climate and life zones. This work provides insights on understanding the effects of climate change on Peru’s diverse ecosystems in highly sensitive, biologically rich arid and semi-arid environments on the Pacific slope.

Fire regimes in mountain landscapes of southern Europe have been shifting from their baselines due to rural abandonment and fire exclusion policies. Understanding the effects of fire on biodiversity is paramount to implement adequate management. Herein, we evaluated the relative role of burn severity and heterogeneity on bird abundance in an abandoned mountain range located in the biogeographic transition between the Eurosiberian and Mediterranean region (the Natural Park ‘Baixa Limia–Serra do Xurés’). We surveyed the bird community in 206 census plots distributed across the Natural Park, both inside and outside areas affected by wildfires over the last 11 years (from 2010 to 2020). We used satellite images of Sentinel 2 and Landsat missions to quantify the burn severity and heterogeneity of each fire within each surveyed plot. We also accounted for the past land use (forestry or agropastoral use) by using a land cover information for year 2010 derived from satellite image classification. We recorded 1,735 contacts from 28 bird species. Our models, fitted by using GLMs with Poisson error distribution (pseudo-R²_-average of 0.22 ± 0.13), showed that up to 71% of the modelled species were linearly correlated with at least one attribute of the fire regime. The spatiotemporal variation in burnt area and severity were relevant factors for explaining the local abundance of our target species (39% of the species; Akaike weights > 0.75). We also found a quadratic effect of at least one fire regime attribute on bird abundance for 60% of the modeled species. The past land use, and its legacy after 10 years, was critical to understand the role of fire (Akaike weights > 0.75). Our findings confirm the importance of incorporating remotely sensed indicators of burn severity into the toolkit of decision makers to accurately anticipate the response of birds to fire management.

Respiratory rate is an important biomarker that indicates changes in the clinical condition of critically ill patients, so a surveillance tool that can accurately monitor the changing respiratory rate in real time is needed. Through investigating various pairs of machine learning models, we proposed new machine learning model for real-time respiratory rate estimation using photoplethysmogram. New photoplethysmogram-driven respiratory rate dataset(StMary) was collected from surgical intensive care unit of a tertiary referral hospital, using photoplethysmogram signal collector. For 50patients and 50healthy volunteers, 2-minute photoplethysmogram was collected for each subject twice. To evaluate the respiratory rate of subject, it was inputted into the deep neural network model we built, and dataset was splitted into training, validation, testing dataset, then 4-fold cross validation was exploited. Our deep neural network model trained with StMary and two public datasets(BIDMC and CapnoBase) individually, or selectively merged dataset had shown a low error rate in respiration rate measurements. Our model trained with StMary showed low mean absolute error score(1.0273±0.8965), and trained with 3 datasets(CapnoBase, BIDMC and StMary) showed a lower error rate(1.7359±1.6724) than the model trained with CapnoBase and BIDMC(1.9480±1.6751). We could verify the performance of model evaluating respiratory rate from photoplethysmogram, and our dataset could contribute as the clinical research data that supports artificial intelligence models evaluating respiratory rate and surveillance tools to test whether their monitoring function works properly.

We have implemented quantum modeling mainly based on Bohmian Mechanics to study time series that contain strong coupling between their events. Compared to time series with normal densities, such time series are associated with rare events. Hence, employing Gaussian statistics drastically underestimates the occurrence of their rare events. The central objective of this study is to investigate the effects of rare events in the probability densities of time series from the point of view of quantum measurements. For this purpose, we first model the non-Gaussian behavior of time series using the multifractal random walk (MRW) approach. Then, we examine the role of the key parameter of MRW, λ, which controls the degree of non-Gaussianity, in quantum potentials derived for time series. Our Bohmian quantum analysis shows that the derived potential takes some negative values in high frequencies (its mean values), then substantially increases, and the value drops again for rare events. Thus, rare events can generate a potential barrier in the high-frequency region of the quantum potential, and the effect of such a barrier becomes prominent when the system transverses it. Finally, as an example of applying quantum potential beyond the microscopic world, we compute quantum potentials for the S&amp;P financial market time series to verify the presence of rare events in the non-Gaussian densities and demonstrate deviation from the Gaussian case.

Exact sequential state estimation of orbiting objects in space can be found by predicting the state using Fokker Planck Kolmogorov Equation (FPKE) and measurement correction using Bayes’ conditional/posterior Probability Density Function (PDF). Posterior PDF can be expressed as Gaussian density expanded in terms of Hermite polynomials named as Gram Charlier Series (GCS). This research is an extension of an earlier work on second order linearized solution to nonlinear Bayesian filtering using Taylor series and third order GCS expansion of posterior PDF. In this new extension, Bayes’ posterior PDF is approximated by a mixture of GCS functions for which the parameters are propagated using linear propagation theory. The update of weights of different components of GCS mixture model uses the FPKE error as feedback to adapt for the amplitude of different GCS components while solving a quadratic programming problem earlier used for Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) PDF. Proposed filtering method is applied on tracking of space debris. The simulation results for the filter shows performance is moderately better than single GCS filter, Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and Gaussian Sum Filter (GSF) under space debris’ highly uncertain initial conditions and sparse measurement availability.

Global models have been developed to tackle the challenge of forecasting sets of series that are related or share similarities, but not for heterogeneous datasets. Various methods of partitioning by relatedness have been introduced to enhance the similarities of the set, resulting in improved forecasting accuracy but often at the cost of a reduced sample size, which could be harmful. To shed light on how the relatedness between series impacts the effectiveness of global models in real-world demand forecasting problems we perform an extensive empirical study using the M5 competition dataset. We examined cross-learning scenarios driven by the product hierarchy commonly employed in retail planning, which allow global models to capture interdependencies across products and regions more effectively. Our findings show that global models outperform state-of-the-art local benchmarks by a considerable margin, indicating that they are not inherently more limited than local models and can handle unrelated time series data effectively. The accuracy of data partitioning approaches increases, as the size of the data pools and the models' complexity decrease. However, there is a trade-off between data availability and data relatedness. Smaller data pools lead to increased similarity among time series, making it easier to capture cross-product and cross-region dependencies, but this comes at the cost of a reduced sample, which may not be beneficial. Finally, it's worth noting that the successful implementation of global models for heterogeneous datasets can significantly impact forecasting practice.