Since mid-December of 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been spreading from Wuhan, China. As of February 21, total 75,773 confirmed cases worldwide have spread to more than two dozen countries. Transmission of COVID-19 can occur early in the course of infection since SARS-CoV-2 viral loads in asymptomatic patients are similar to that in the symptomatic patients. Therefore, more sensitive diagnostic methods are needed to detect early phase of the infection to prevent secondary or tertiary spreads. Here, we compare the RT-PCR confirmatory test results using two different SARS-CoV-2 viral RNAs from two Korean COVID-19 confirmed cases.RT-PCR method targeting the RdRP gene, which was recommended by WHO guideline, was less sensitive than targeting N genes (as per CDC guideline). Because many countries follow the WHO guideline, our findings may contribute to the early diagnosis of COVID-19.

In this paper, we will revisit the derivation of Heisenberg's uncertainty principle. We will see how the Heisenberg principle collapses at the Planck scale by introducing a minor modification. The beauty of our suggested modification is that it does not change the main equations in quantum mechanics; it only gives them a Planck scale limit where uncertainty collapses. We suspect that Einstein could have been right after all, when he stated, ``God does not throw dice." His now-famous saying was an expression of his skepticism towards the concept that quantum randomness could be the ruling force, even at the deepest levels of reality. Here we will explore the quantum realm with a fresh perspective, by re-deriving the Heisenberg principle in relation to the Planck scale. We will show how this idea also leads to an upper boundary on uncertainty, in addition to the lower boundary. These upper and lower boundaries are identical for the Planck mass particle; in fact, they are zero, and this highlights the truly unique nature of the Planck mass particle. Further, there may be a close connection between light and the Planck mass particle: In our model, the standard relativistic energy momentum relation also seems to apply to light, while in modern physics light generally stands outside the standard relativistic momentum energy relation. We will also suggest a new way to look at elementary particles, where mass and time are closely related, consistent with some of the recent work in experimental physics. Our model leads to a new time operator that does not appear to be in conflict with the Pauli objection. This indicates that both mass and momentum come in quanta, which are perfectly correlated to an internal Compton `clock' frequency in elementary particles.

Study objective Since December 2019, the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has caused over a million deaths and resulted in adverse socio-economic impacts worldwide. However, predictability and prognostication of clinical features vary among different populations. Methods We search PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Google Scholar, and WHO Global Health Library from December 2019 to April 2020 for studies reporting the risk factors, clinical features, and outcomes. The random-effect models for transformed prevalence (single-arm) or bivariate random-effect models (sensitivity and specificity) for correlated performance indicators. Results Among the 189 included studies representing 53,659 patients, the most sensitive predictor for COVID-19 infection was fever in adults (83%, 95% confidence interval [CI]:73–90%), and the most specific predictor was fatigue (96%, 95% CI: 80–99%). Fever was the most sensitive symptom in predicting the severity (89%, 95% CI:83–92%), followed by cough (71%, 95% CI:63–78%). The most specific predictor of severe COVID-19 was a chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (99%, 95% CI:98–99%). The stage of the outbreak and age significantly affect the prevalence of fever, fatigue, cough, and dyspnea. Fever, cough, fatigue, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus combined have a 3.06 positive likelihood ratio (PLR) and a 0.59 negative likelihood ratio (NLR) in the diagnosis. Additionally, fever, cough, sputum production, myalgia, fatigue, and dyspnea combined have a 10.44 PLR and a 0.16 NLR in predicting severe COVID-19. Conclusions Understanding the different distribution of predictors essential for screening potential COVID-19 infection and severe outcomes and the combination of symptoms could improve the pre-test probability.

Sensory Processing Sensitivity (SPS) is a trait describing inter-individual differences in sensitivity to environments, both positive and negative ones. SPS has attracted growing societal interest. However, (neuro)scientific evidence is lagging behind. We critically discuss how to measure SPS, how it relates to other theories of Environmental Sensitivity and other temperament and personality traits, how SPS interacts with environments to influence (a)typical development, what the underlying aetiologies and mechanisms are, and its relation to mental disorders involving sensory sensitivities. Drawing on the diverse expertise of the authors, we set an agenda for future research to stimulate the field. We conclude that SPS is a heritable, evolutionarily conserved trait, linked to increased risk for psychopathology and stress-related problems in response to negative environments, as well as to greater benefits (e.g., intervention responsivity, positive mood) in positive environments. We need advances in objective assessment of SPS, understanding mechanisms, differentiating it from (seemingly) related mental disorders, to exploit the potential of SPS to improve mental health, preserve human capital, and prevent adverse effects.

The COVID-19 pandemic has created huge damage to society and brought panics around the world. Such panics can be ascribed to the seemingly deceptive features of the COVID-19: compared to other deadly viral outspreads, it has medium transmission and mortality rates. As a result, the severity of the causative coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, was deeply underestimated by the society at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak. Based on this, in this review, we define the viruses with features similar to those of SARS-CoV-2 as the Panic Zone viruses. To contain those viruses, accurate and fast diagnosis followed by effective isolation and treatment of patients are pivotal at the early stage of virus breakouts. This is especially true when there is no cure or vaccine available for a transmissible disease, which is the case for current COVID-19 pandemic. As of January 2021, more than two hundred kits for the COVID-19 diagnosis on the market are surveyed in this review, while emerging sensing techniques for SARS-CoV-2 are also discussed. It is of critical importance to rationally use these kits for the efficient management and control of the Panic Zone viruses. Therefore, we discuss guidelines to select diagnostic kits at different outbreak stages of the Panic Zone viruses, SARS-CoV-2 in particular. While it is of utmost importance to use nucleic acid-based detection kits with low false negativity (high sensitivity) at the early stage of an outbreak, the low false positivity (high specificity) gains its importance at later stages of the outbreak. When a society is set to reopen from the lock-down stage of the COVID-19 pandemic, it becomes critical to have antibody based immunoassay kits with high specificity to identify people who can safely return to the society after their recovery of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Given that the emergence of mutant viruses at the beginning of 2021 has complicated current battle against the COVID-19, we also discussed approaches and guidelines to detect viral mutants in the middle of the second wave of the pandemic that started at the end of 2020. Finally, since a massive attack from a viral pandemic requires a massive defense from the whole society, we urge both government and private sectors to research and develop more affordable and reliable point-of-care testing (POCT) kits, which can be used massively by the general public (and therefore called as massive POCT) to contain Panic Zone viruses in future.

What is the function of cognition? On one influential account, cognition evolved to co-ordinate behaviour with environmental change or complexity (Godfrey-Smith 1996). Liberal interpretations of this view ascribe cognition to an extraordinarily broad set of biological systems – even bacteria, which modulate their activity in response to salient external cues, would seem to qualify as cognitive agents. However, equating cognition with adaptive flexibility per se glosses over important distinctions in the way biological organisms deal with environmental complexity. Drawing on contemporary advances in theoretical biology and computational neuroscience, we cash these distinctions out in terms of different kinds of generative models, and the representational and uncertainty-resolving capacities they afford. This analysis leads us to propose a formal criterion for delineating cognition from other, more pervasive forms of adaptive plasticity. On this view, biological cognition is rooted in a particular kind of functional organisation; namely, that which enables the agent to detach from the present and engage in counterfactual (active) inference.

The function of sleep in mammal and other vertebrates is one of the great mysteries of biology. Many hypotheses have been proposed, but few of these have made even the slightest attempt to explain the essence of sleep - the uncompromising need for reversible unconsciousness. During sleep, epiphenomena - often of a somatic character - occur, but these cannot explain the core function of sleep. One answer could be hidden in the observations made for long periods of time of the function of the central nervous system (CNS). The CNS is faced with conflicting requirements on stability and excitability. A high level of excitability is desirable, and is also a prerequisite for sensitivity and quick reaction times; however, it can also lead to instability and the risk of feedback, with life-threatening epileptic seizures. Activity-dependent negative feedback in neuronal excitability improves stability in the short term, but not to the degree that is required. A hypothesis is presented here demonstrating how calibration of individual neurons - an activity which occurs only during sleep - can establish the balanced and highest possible excitability while also preserving stability in the CNS. One example of a possible mechanism is the observation of slow oscillations in EEGs made on birds and mammals during slow wave sleep. Calibration to a genetically determined level of excitability could take place in individual neurons during the slow oscillation, so that action potentials are generated during the oscillations “up-phase”. This can only take place offline, which explains the need for sleep. The hypothesis can explain phenomena such as the need for unconsciousness during sleep, with the disconnection of sensory stimuli, slow EEG oscillations, the relationship of sleep and epilepsy, age, the effects of sleep on neuronal firing rate and the effects of sleep deprivation and sleep homeostasis. This is with regard primarily to mammals, including humans, but also all other vertebrates.

Understanding tourist behaviour during and after major tourism crises is essential to help destinations recover. The COVID-19 pandemic, a period of uncertainty and risk, makes it relevant to assess factors that influence travel intentions. There has been little research on tourist behaviour during health crises and, in particular, on perceived health risk and uncertainty effects on travel intentions. This study was carried out during the first months of the pandemic in Brazil and aims to investigate the role of health risk perception and intolerance of uncertainty on travel intentions for 2020 and 2021. We applied an online survey to 1,150 Brazilian participants from March to May of 2020. Our findings indicate that perceived COVID-19 severity, perceived probability of contracting it, and expected pandemic duration are significant predictors of travel intentions for both years. This paper sheds new light on tourist behaviour in the context of global health crises.

The aim of this study was to develop, implement, and evaluate a new auxiliary enterprise risk management framework and process to serve as an enabler to the global ISO 31000 risk framework and ISO 31010 processes. This framework has been designed particularly for use within high-risk environments and those characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). This paper proposes a methodology for optimization of structured sharing and grass-roots management of all available risk-sentience information with the assessed potential to develop into an identifiable risk in the future. The author introduces new risk terminology including risk-sentience, risk-sentience information, and risk-sentience management. The process involved the development of the Theory of Risk-Sentience (ToRS), Risk-Sentience Auxiliary Framework (RSAF) and a risk-sentience management process referred to as LUOMEAR (Learning from Uncertainties, Others Mistakes, Experiences and Anecdotal Reporting). Manchester Patient Safety Framework (MaPSaF), SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis, and a newly developed Risk-Sentience Fertility Checklist were used to conduct pre and post-trial evaluations. The findings include positive adjustments in safety culture, components of commitment to quality, communication and team-working around safety issues, access to evolving risk-information, and efficient sharing and management of recorded risk-information. Recommendations are made for more extensive application of both the proposed auxiliary risk framework and process within high-risk sectors to further explore its effectiveness and scope.

Visualizing geo-spatial data embedded into a three-dimensional terrain is challenging. The problem becomes even more complex when uncertainty information needs to be presented as well. This paper addresses the question of how to visually communicate all three aspects: the 3D terrain, the geo-spatial data, and the data-associated uncertainty. We argue that visualizing all aspects with a high degree of detail will likely exceed the visual budget. Therefore, we propose a visualization strategy based on prioritizing a selected aspect and presenting the remaining two with less detail. We discuss various design options that allow us to obtain differently prioritized visual representations. Our approach has been implemented as a tool for rapid visualization prototyping in the context of avionics applications. Practical solutions are described for a use case related to the visualization of 3D terrain and uncertain weather data.

In the promptness of the COVID-19 outbreak, it would be very important to observe and estimate the pattern of diseases to reduce the contagious infection. To study this effect, we developed a COVID-19 analytical epidemic framework that combines with isolation and lockdown effect by incorporating five various groups of individuals. Then we analyze the model by evaluating the equilibrium points and analyzing their stability as well as determining the basic reproduction number. The extensive numerical simulations show the dynamics of a different group of the population over time. Thus, our findings based on the sensitivity analysis and the reproduction number highlight the role of outbreak of the virus that can be useful to avoid a massive collapse in Bangladesh and rest of the world. The outcome of this study concludes that outbreak will be in control which ensures the social and economic stability.

The value of QuantiFERON in the diagnosis of tuberculosis and in the monitoring of the response to anti-tuberculosis treatment is unclear. The aims of this study were to evaluate the accuracy of the QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube (QFT-GIT) test in the diagnosis of tuberculosis and in the monitoring of the response to anti-tuberculosis treatment in patients with active pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB). Between January 2013 and December 2015, 128 cases with active PTB and 128 controls with no mycobacterial infection, matched by age (within 3 years) and by the week that they visited Tainan Chest Hospital, were enrolled in the study. Serial testing by QFT-GIT at baseline and after 2 and 6 months of treatment was performed. At these time points, a comparison of the performance of QFT-GIT with that of sputum culture status among study subjects was conducted. Compared to baseline, 116 (87.2%) cases showed a decreased response, whereas 17 (12.8%) showed persistent or stronger interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) responses at 2 months. Their IFN-γ responses declined significantly from baseline to 2 months (median, 6.32 vs. 4.12; P < 0.005). The sensitivity values of the QFT-GIT test for the detection of pulmonary tuberculosis at cut-off points of 0.35 IU/ml, 0.20 IU/ml, and 0.10 IU/ml were 74.4%, 78.2%, and 80.5%, respectively. The specificity values at cut-off points of 0.35 IU/ml, 0.20 IU/ml, and 0.10 IU/ml were 66.2%, 63.9%, and 57.1%, respectively. Our results support the QFT-GIT assay as a potential tool for diagnosing tuberculosis and for monitoring the efficacy of anti-tuberculosis treatment.

Supervised land-use/land-cover (LULC) classifications are typically conducted using class assignment rules derived from a set of multiclass training samples. Consequently, classification accuracy varies with the training data set and is thus associated with uncertainty. In this study, we propose a bootstrap resampling and reclassification approach that can be applied for assessing not only the uncertainty in classification results of the bootstrap-training data sets, but also the classification uncertainty of individual pixels in the study area. Two measures of pixel-specific classification uncertainty, namely the maximum class probability and Shannon entropy, were derived from the class probability vector of individual pixels and used for the identification of unclassified pixels. Unclassified pixels that are identified using the traditional chi-square threshold technique represent outliers of individual LULC classes, but they are not necessarily associated with higher classification uncertainty. By contrast, unclassified pixels identified using the equal-likelihood technique are associated with higher classification uncertainty and they mostly occur on or near the borders of different land-cover.

Highly flexible manufacturing systems require continuous run-time (self-) optimization of processes with respect to various parameters, e.g. efficiency, availability, energy consumption etc. A promising approach for achieving (self-) optimization in manufacturing systems is the usage of the context sensitivity approach. Thereby the Cyber-Physical Systems play an important role as sources of information to achieve context sensitivity. In this paper it is demonstrated how context sensitivity can be used to realize a holistic solution for (self-) optimization of discrete flexible manufacturing systems, by making use of Cyber-Physical System integrated in manufacturing systems/processes. A generic approach for context sensitivity, based on self-learning algorithms, is proposed aiming at a various manufacturing systems. The new solution is propos encompassing run-time context extractor and optimizer. Based on the self-learning module both context extraction and optimizer are continuously learning and improving their performance. The solution is following Service Oriented Architecture principles. The generic solution is developed and then applied to two very different manufacturing processes. This paper proposes a holistic solution to achieve context sensitivity for Flexible Manufacturing Systems, whereby the knowledge created by applying the context sensitivity approach can be used for (self-) optimization of manufacturing processes.

Errors during manufacture of high value components are not acceptable nowadays in driving industries such as energy and transportation. Sectors such as aerospace, automotive, shipbuilding, nuclear power, large science facilities or wind power manufacture complex and accurate components that demand close measurements and fast feedback into manufacturing processes. New measuring technologies are already available in machine tools, including integrated touch probes and fast interface capabilities. They shall provide the possibility to measure the workpiece during or after the manufacturing process, maintaining the original setup of the workpiece and avoiding the manufacturing process from being interrupted to transport the workpiece to a measuring position. However, the traceability of the measurement process on a machine tool is not ensured yet and measurement data is still not fully reliable for process control or product validation. Due to the similarity between a coordinate measuring machine and a machine tool, some of the methods applied for a correct assessment of uncertainty in coordinate measuring machines are adapted to the challenges of a machine tool. The scientific objective is to determine the uncertainty on a machine tool measurement and, in this way, convert it into a machine integrated traceable measuring process. This paper reviews the fundamentals of machine tool metrology.

G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) play a key role in many cellular signaling mechanisms, and must select among multiple coupling possibilities in a ligand-specific manner in order to carry out a myriad of functions in diverse cellular contexts. Much has been learned about the molecular mechanisms of ligand-GPCR complexes from Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations. However, to explore ligand-specific differences in the response of a GPCR to diverse ligands, as is required to understand ligand bias and functional selectivity, necessitates creating very large amounts of data from the needed large-scale simulations. This becomes a Big Data problem for the high dimensionality analysis of the accumulated trajectories. Here we describe a new machine learning (ML) approach to the problem that is based on transforming the analysis of GPCR function-related, ligand-specific differences encoded in the MD simulation trajectories into a representation recognizable by state-of-the-art deep learning object recognition technology. We illustrate this method by applying it to recognize the pharmacological classification of ligands bound to the 5-HT2A and D2 subtypes of class A GPCRs from the serotonin and dopamine families. The ML-based approach is shown to perform the classification task with high accuracy, and we identify the molecular determinants of the classifications in the context of GPCR structure and function. This study builds a framework for the efficient computational analysis of MD Big Data collected for the purpose of understanding ligand-specific GPCR activity.

In this work, we report synthesis of Cu, Pt and Pd doped SnO₂ powders and their comparative CO gas sensing studies. Dopants were incorporated into SnO₂ nanostructures using chemical and impregnation methods by using urea and ammonia as precipitation agents. The synthesized samples were characterized using X-ray diffraction (XRD), Raman spectroscopy, Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and High resolution transmission electron microscopy (HR-TEM). The presence of dopants within the SnO₂ nanostructures was evidenced from HR-TEM. Doped powders utilizing chemical methods with urea as precipitation agent presented higher sensitivities compared to the remaining, which is due to the formation of uniform and homogeneous particles resulted from the temperature assisted synthesis. The particle sizes of doped SnO₂ nanostructures were in the range of 40-100 nm. An enhanced sensitivity around 1783 was achieved with Cu doped SnO₂ when compared with two other dopants i.e., Pt (1200) and Pd: SnO₂(502). The high sensitivity of Cu: SnO₂ is due to formation of CuO and its excellent association and dissociation in the presence of CO with adsorbed atmospheric oxygen at sensor operation temperatures resulted in high conductance. Cu: SnO₂ may be an alternative and cost effective sensor for industrial applications.

A simple method for the determination of caffeine in coffee grains by GC-FID is presented in the current work. The method was fully validated according to ISO 17025 requirements and European Commission regulation. The accuracy, as provided by recovery experiments was higher than 93%, and the precision, as provided by the (%)Relative standard deviation under reproducibility conditions, was lower than 5%. All independent parameters that lead in the increase of methods uncertainty were investigated. In the present work all special precautions were taken into account in order to avoid the use of an internal standard. The method was applied in real samples and possible health claims were investigated.

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is the change in global mean temperature expected to result from doubling atmospheric CO2 concentration from pre-industrial levels. Extensive research during the past 40 years has not reduced the uncertainty associated with ECS. Sherwood et al. [1] applied Bayesian statistics to evidence from climate-process physics, historical observations and earlier proxies to reduce the range of ECS from 1.5 – 4.5 K to 2.6 – 4.1 K. This paper examines their methods and many of the assumptions they made. It also evaluates two additional periods in the Holocene to show that factors other than CO2 drove recent climate change. It identifies potential systematic errors resulting from adding non-equilibrium short-term adjustments to the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases and from underestimating the effects of solar irradiance, ocean currents and aerosols. These factors have resulted in estimates of the forcing by CO2 that far exceed the apparent effects in paleoclimate data.

Since the beginning of the year 2020, the global healthcare system has been challenged by the threat of the SARS-COV 2 virus. Molecular, antigen, and antibody testing are the mainstay to identify infected patients and fight the virus. Molecular and antigen tests that detect the presence of the virus are relevant in the acute phase only. Serological assays detect antibodies to the Sars-CoV-2 virus in the recovering and recovered phase. Each testing methodology has its advantages and disadvantages. To evaluate the test methods, sensitivity (percent positive agreement - PPA) and specificity (percent negative agreement – PNA) are the most common metrics utilized, followed by the positive and negative predictive value (PPV and NPV), the probability that a positive or negative test result represents a true positive or negative patient. In this paper, we illustrate how patient risk and clinical costs are driven by false-positive and false-negative results. We demonstrate the value of reporting PFP (probability of false positive results), PFN (probability of false negative results), and costs to patients and healthcare. These risk metrics can be calculated from the risk drivers of PPA and PNA combined with estimates of prevalence, cost, and Reff number (people infected by one positive SARS COV-2).

Statistical modeling lies at the heart of product design and development throughout numerous engineering disciplines, especially since processing large amounts of data has become increasingly ubiquitous. While mathematical statistics provide elegant guidance pertaining to the question of whether or not some particular underlying modeling assumptions are justified and appropriate, when pursuing a more comprehensive assessment of product design and development other considerations often increase in significance. Therefore, we will examine and analyze the tedious interactions and implications of statistical modeling choices and product liability exposure. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to draw attention to and explore some often overlooked or oversimplified dangers and pitfalls that enter the equation when product design heavily relies on statistical modeling. In particular, through a diligent analysis of both statistical and legal aspects we will explore how statistically optimal procedures may yield far from optimal outcomes in terms of product liability when applied to actual real life problems and why suboptimal nonparametric or robust approaches may constitute better alternatives.

Knowledge-based approaches are useful alternatives to predict the Failure Probability (FP) coping with the insufficient data, process integrity, and complexity issue in manufacturing systems. This study proposes a Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) approach as proactive knowledge-based technique to estimate the FP based maintenance planning with subjective information from domain experts. However, the classical-FTA still suffers from uncertainty and static structure limitations which poses a substantial dilemma in predicting FP. To deal with the uncertainty issues, a Fuzzy-FTA (FFTA) model was developed by statistical analysing the effective attributes such as experts' trait impacts, scales variation and, assorted membership and defuzzification functions. Besides, a Bayesian Network (BN) theory was conducted to overcome the static limitation of classical-FTA. The results of FFTA model revealed that the changes in decision attributes were not statistically significant on FP variation while BN model considering conditional rules to reflect the dynamic relationship between events had more impact on predicting FP. After all, the integrated FFTA-BN model was used in the optimization model to find the optimal maintenance intervals according to estimated FP and the total expected cost. As a practical example, the proposed model was implemented in a semi-automatic filling system in an automotive production line. The outcomes could be useful for upgrading the availability and safety of complex equipment in manufacturing systems.

Analysis of 49 strains of F. langsethiae originating from northern Europe (Russia, Finland, Sweden, UK, Norway, and Latvia) revealed the presence of spontaneous auxotrophic mutants that reflect natural intraspecific diversity. Our investigations detected that 49.0% of F. langsethiae strains were auxotrophic mutants for biotin, and 8.2% of the strains required thiamine as a growth factor. They failed to grow on vitamin-free media. For both prototrophic and auxotrophic strains, no growth defect was observed in rich organic media. Without essential vitamins, a significant reduction in the growth of the auxotrophic strains results in a decrease of the formation of T-2 toxin and diacetoxyscirpenol. In addition, all analysed F. langsethiae strains were distinguished into two subgroups based on PCR product sizes. According to our results, 26 and 23 strains of F. langsethiae belong to subgroups I and II respectively. We determined that the deletion in the IGS region of the rDNA of F. langsethiae belonging to subgroup II is linked with temperature sensitivity and causes a decrease in strain growth at 30 °C. Four thiamine auxotrophic strains were found in subgroup I, while 21 biotin auxotrophic strains were detected in subgroups II. To the best of our knowledge, the spontaneous mutations in F. langsethiae observed in the present work have not been previously reported.

In this paper, we relate Poisson’s summation formula to Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle. They both express Fourier dualities within the space of tempered distributions and these dualities are furthermore the inverses of one another. While Poisson’s summation formula expresses a duality between discretization and periodization, Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle expresses a duality between regularization and localization. We define regularization and localization on generalized functions and show that the Fourier transform of regular functions are local functions and, vice versa, the Fourier transform of local functions are regular functions.

NASA mission systems proposals are often compared using an equivalent system mass (ESM) framework wherein all elements of technology to deliver an effect- its components, operations and logistics of delivery- are converted to effective masses since this has a known cost scale in space operations. To date, ESM methods and the tools for system comparison have not considered complexities wherein systems that serve a mission span multiple transit and operations stages, such as would be required to support a crewed mission to Mars, and thus do not account for the different mass equivalency factors operational during each period and the inter-dependencies of the costs across the mission. Further, ESM does not account well for the differential reliabilities of the underlying technologies. Less reliability should incur an equivalent mass cost for technologies that might otherwise provide a mass advantage. We introduce an extensions to ESM to address these limitations and show that it provides a direct method for analyzing, optimizing and comparing different mission systems. We demonstrate our extended ESM (xESM) calculation with crop production technologies -- an aspect of the developing offworld biomanufacturing suite -- since it represents a case with strong coupling among stages of the mission and a relatively high-risk profile.

The aim of this article is to propose a core game theory model of transaction costs wherein it is indicated how direct costs determine the probability of loss and subsequent transaction costs. The existence of optimum is proven, and the way in which exposure influences the location of the optimum is demonstrated. The decisions are described as a two-player game and it is discussed how the transaction cost sharing rule determines whether the optimum point of transaction costs is the same as the equilibrium of the game. The dispute between actors regarding changing the share of transaction costs to be paid by each party is modeled by a non-cooperative bargaining game. Requirements of efficient transaction cost sharing rules are defined, and it is posited that solution exists which is not unique. Policy conclusions are also devised based on principles of design of institutions to influence the nature of transaction costs.

We have recently presented a unified quantum gravity theory [1]. Here we extend on that work and present an even simpler version of that theory. For about hundred years, modern physics has not been able to build a bridge between quantum mechanics and gravity. However, a solution may be found here; we present our quantum gravity theory, which is rooted in indivisible particles where matter and gravity are related to collisions and can be described by collision space-time. In this paper, we also show that we can formulate a quantum wave equation rooted in collision space-time, which is equivalent to mass and energy.The beauty of our theory is that most of the main equations that currently exist in physics are not changed (in terms of predictions), except at the Planck scale. The Planck scale is directly linked to gravity and gravity is, surprisingly, actually a Lorentz symmetry as well as a form of Heisenberg uncertainty break down at the Planck scale. Our theory gives a dramatic simplification of many physics formulas without altering the output predictions. The relativistic wave equation, the relativistic energy momentum relation, and Minkowski space can all be represented by simpler equations when we understand mass at a deeper level. This not attained at a cost, but rather a reflection of the benefit in having gravity and electromagnetism unified under the same theory.

Coastal inundation is an increasing problem. Sea-level rise will greatly increase the frequency and depth of inundation, forcing vulnerable communities to adapt. Communities will need to decide when and how to adapt. The process of decision-making along adaptive pathways is now being used internationally to plan for adaptation over time by anticipating decision points in the future however it unfolds. This process requires risk and uncertainty considerations to be transparent in the scenarios used in such planning. We outline a framework for uncertainty identification and management within coastal hazard assessments which recognizes different types of decision and identifies the types of uncertainty that must be accounted for, such as statistical, scenario and deep uncertainty types. We show how coastal-inundation hazard can be mapped and presented in a way that clearly separates sources of uncertainty, so that they are transparent within a dynamic adaptive pathways planning process. Traditional coastal inundation maps show inundated area only. We present maps of inundation depth and frequency which clearly show the degree of exposure, where that exposure occurs, and how much sea-level rise can be tolerated. The new uncertainty framework and mapping techniques can better identify decision points and their expected time range, which provides more useful input to the adaptation process than traditional coastal inundation assessments.

That how to improve the sensitivity and the detection ability of the Large-caliber sensor is critical to satisfy the requirement of heavy vehicle wear condition monitoring. In this paper, we introduced the LC resonance principle to the design of sensor with large flow channel (7mm). The resonant exciting coil increases the impedance change of the exciting circuit caused by wear particles which magnify the current difference between the two exciting coils and improve the sensitivity of the sensor. The resonant induction coil greatly suppresses the interference signals and magnifies the weak induced electromotive force which is beneficial to enhance the detection ability. In order to boost the detectability for different materials particles, a phase controlled variable-frequency exciting system (PCVFES) was adopted to automatically switch the exciting frequency between 284kHz for ferromagnetic particles and 420KHz for non-ferromagnetic particles. For the weak signal detection, based on the essential characteristic of the signal, we apply a simpler method that modified lock-in amplifier (MLIA) rather than the conventional algorithms (Wavelet transform, EMD). Results show that using these methods the sensitivity and the detection ability of the sensor are significantly improved and the 75μm iron particles and 220μm copper particles were successfully detected which realizes the initial abnormal wear monitoring for the large flow project.

Recently, light traps using light-emitting diode (LED) lights have been applied to monitor or control insect pests. The oriental armyworm, Mythimna separata Walker, is an important insect pest that has caused damage to several cereal crops, including corn, wheat and rice. The present study aims to seek out a sensitive wavelength causing high phototactic response in M. separata. The study evaluated the phototactic responses of M. separata moths to several LED lights of different wavelengths and luminance intensities under laboratory condition. Results showed that green (520 nm) LED light resulted in significant phototactic response of M. separata moths compared to LED lights of other wavelengths. Additionally, the highest attraction rate of the moths to green LED light appeared in luminance intensity group of 200 lux compared to the other intensities groups. Experiments under optimum conditions based on the above experiments revealed that the green LED light exhibited the strongest attraction rate (64.44%) among all experimental groups. An experiment performed in a net cage also showed that green LED light resulted in the highest phototactic response of M. separata moths, 1.7 times more than a commercial black light used as control. These findings clearly demonstrate that M. separata moths have a high sensitivity to the green LED light. Therefore, a light trap equipped with green LED light could be useful for monitoring and controlling M. separata moths.

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), one of the prevalent branches of operations research, aims to design mathematical and computational tools for selecting the best alternative among several choices with respect to specific criteria. In the cloud, MCDA based online brokers uses customer specified criteria to rank different service providers. However, subjected to limited domain knowledge, the customer may exclude relevant or include irrelevant criterion, which could result in suboptimal ranking of service providers. To deal with such misspecification, this research proposes a model, which uses notion of factor analysis from the domain of unsupervised machine learning. The model is evaluated using two quality-of-service (QoS) based datasets. The first dataset i.e., feedback from customers, was compiled using leading review websites such as Cloud Hosting Reviews, Best Cloud Computing Providers, and Cloud Storage Reviews and Ratings. The second dataset i.e., feedback from servers, was generated from cloud brokerage architecture that was emulated using high performance computing (HPC) cluster at University of Luxembourg (HPC @ Uni.lu). The simulation runs in a stable cloud environment i.e. when uncertainty is low, shows that online broker (equipped with the proposed model) produces optimized ranking of service providers as compared to other brokers. This is due the fact that proposed model assigns priorities to criteria objectively (using machine learning) rather than using priorities based on subjective judgments of the customer. This research will benefit potential cloud customers that view insufficient domain knowledge as a limiting factor for acquisition of web services in the cloud.

The Gilles de la Tourette syndrome (GTS) and Non-Coeliac Gluten Sensitivity (NCGS) may be associated. We analyse the efficacy of a gluten-free diet (GFD) in 29 patients with GTS (23 children; 6 adults) in a prospective pilot study. All of them followed a GFD for one year. The YGTSS, Y-BOCS/CY-BOCS and GTS-QOL questionnaires were compared before and after the GFD. 74% of children and 50% of adults were males, not significant (NS). At the beginning of the study, 69% of children and 100% of adults had associated OCD (NS). At baseline, the YGTSS scores were 55.0 ± 17.5 (children) and 55.8 ± 19.8 (adults) (NS), the Y-BOCS/CY-BOCS scores were 15.3 (SD = 12.3) (children) and 26.8 (9.2) (adults) (p = 0.043), and the GTS-QOL scores were 42.8 ± 18.5 (children) and 64 ± 7.9 (adults) (p = 0.000). NCGS was frequent in both groups, with headaches reported by 47.0% of children and 83.6% of adults (p = 0.001). After one year on a GFD there was a marked reduction in measures of tics (YGTSS) (p = 0.001), and the intensity and frequency of OCD (Y-BOCS/CY-BOCS) (p = 0.001), along with improved QOL (p = 0.001) in children and adults. In conclusion, a GFD maintained for one year in GTS patients led to a marked reduction in tics and OCD both in children and adults.

The interpretation of the local microenvironment of extracellular matrix for malignant tumor cells is in intimate relation with metastatic spread of cancer cells involving the associated issues of cellular proliferation and drug responsiveness. This study was aimed to assess the combination of both surface topographies (fiber alignments) and different stiffness of the polymeric substrates (PLLA and PCL) and collagen substrates (coat and gel) to elucidate the effect of the cellular morphology on cellular proliferation and drug sensitivities of two different types of breast cancer cells (MDA-MB-231 and MCF-7). The morphological spreading parameter of (Nuclear/Cytoplasm) induced by the anthropogenic substrates has correlated intimately with the cellular proliferation and the drug sensitivity (IC₅₀) of cancer cells. This study demonstrated the promising results of the parameter for the evaluation of cancer cell malignancy.

According to the current understanding, the recently observed accelerated expansion of the universe is caused by the dark or the vacuum energy. Attempts to calculate the magnitude of this energy using the standard model of particle physics led to values which are 59 – 120 orders of magnitude larger than the experimentally estimated one. Even though the expanding space has positive internal energy, in a flat universe it is completely balanced by the negative energy of gravitational field making the net energy equal to zero. However, the current physical theories may breakdown for times less than or on the order of Planck time and one cannot assume that the above assertion concerning the balance of two energies is valid also in this time scale. In this note it is assumed that this balance of the two energies during the creation of new space as the universe expands takes place only for times larger than the Planck time. If this assumption is correct, the net energy of the newly created space remains positive for times on the order of Planck time and the positive vacuum energy has to be burrowed from empty space before it is being balanced by gravity. This can happen only within the restrictions of the time-energy uncertainty principle. In this note it is shown that such considerations lead to a vacuum energy density of about 0.3 Nanojoules per cubic meter which has to be compared with the measured value of 0.6 Nanojoules per cubic meter.

As fossil-fueled heating in the building sector is responsible for 16 % of Germanys total CO2 emissions, it is of great importance to use climate-neutral alternatives for the decarbonization of this sector. Options for the climate-neutral heating of buildings include electricity or hydrogen as energy carriers, both explicitly considered by German policy. In this paper, bottom-up studies are conducted to investigate the role of hydrogen for the climate-neutral energy supply of ten selected residential buildings in comparison to electricity-based systems. Based on a selection of as different typical buildings as possible for single- (SFH) and multi-family houses (MFH) of different construction years, demand profiles are simulated for each building and the respective cost-optimal supply system is determined. For the construction of this system, the electricity-based technologies available are electric heater and heat pump as well as the hydrogen-based technologies hydrogen boiler and fuel cell combined heat and power (CHP) system. Based on the results of the optimization, sensitivity analyses are performed. These analyses aim to identify threshold values of the hydrogen price for the use of hydrogen in building energy systems as well as to make the quantities of hydrogen consumed visible.The identified threshold values show the significant role of hydrogen-operated CHP in MFH if the hydrogen price reaches 0.17 €/kWh_H2 in 2050 at an electricity price of 0.31 €/kWh_el. So, hydrogen-based energy systems represent an economically viable alternative to electricity-based systems with heat pumps. We identify electricity to hydrogen price ratios for the economically viable use of hydrogen in the examined buildings that range from 1.67 to 2.82. According to these ratios, the economically reasonable use of hydrogen in buildings can be derived. For the individual building groups for the year 2050, a ratio of 2.5 can be determined for SFH and 1.8 for MFH, that is favored by the use of CHP which also supplies electricity to the buildings. However, the role hydrogen will finally play in German residential buildings in the future depends to a large extent on political decisions on distribution issues and price signals.

Hydro-climatic projections in West Africa are attributed with high uncertainties that are difficult to quantify. This study assesses the influence of the parameter sensitivities and uncertainties of three rainfall runoff models on simulated discharge in current and future times using meteorological data from 8 Global Climate Models. The IHACRES Catchment Moisture Deficit (IHACRES-CMD) model, the GR4J and the Sacramento model were chosen for this study. During model evaluation, 10,000 parameter sets have been generated for each model and used in a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method. Out of the three models, IHACRES-CMD recorded the highest Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.92 and 0.86 for the calibration (1997-2003) and the validation (2004-2010) period respectively. The Sacramento model was able to adequately predict low flow patterns on the catchment while the GR4J and IHACRES-CMD over and under estimate low flow respectively. The use of multiple hydrological models to reduce uncertainties caused by model approaches is recommended along with other methods of sustainable river basin managements.

Is it true that the nuclear technology applied to electric energy generation offers a clean, safe, reliable and affordable i.e. sustainable alternative? Yes it is, but its impact on the environment strongly depends on the implementation bearing residual risks due to a human factor, technical failures or natural catastrophes. A full response is therefore difficult and can first be given when the wicked multi-disciplinary problems get well formulated and “solved”. These problems have multi-dimensional nature lying at the interface between: necessary R&D effort, the industrial deployment and the technology impact in view of the environmental sustainability including the management of produced hazardous waste. This enormous complexity indicates that just a description of the problem might represent a problem. The paper proposes a holistic approach to assess the nuclear energy systems potential with respect to sustainable performance applying Multi-criteria decision analysis with a suitable objective tree and a multi-level criteria structure and examines the trading-off techniques for ranking of the alternatives. The framework proposes a multi-criteria and multi-stakeholders treatment which can be used as a pre-decisional support towards an implementation of nuclear fuel cycles adapted to national preferences and priorities. Proposed approach addresses some aspects of the environmental footprint of nuclear energy systems. Advanced nuclear fuel cycles, previously investigated by the NEA/OECD expert group WASTEMAN, are analyzed as a case study. Sustainability facets of waste management, resource utilization and economics are in focus.

WNT10B belongs to the family of WNT proteins that are implicated in a range of phenomena that are affected by the Wnt signaling pathway. Recent studies have shown that WNT10B plays a role in colorectal cancer. WNTs have been found to directly affect the stemness of the tumor cells via regulation of ASCL2. Switching off the ASCL2 literally blocks the stemness process of the tumor cells and vice versa. Furthermore, recent findings suggest BVES to be highly suppressed in malignancies and in vitro deletions of BVES show higher Wnt signaling activity to induce stem- ness. WNT10B was found to be highly expressed in such cases. Often, in biology, we are faced with the problem of exploring relevant unknown biological hypotheses in the form of myriads of combination of factors that might be affecting the pathway under certain conditions. For example, WNT10B-ASCL2 is one such 2^nd order combination whose relation needs to be tested under the influence of recently developed porcupine-WNT inhibitor ETC-1922159. The inhibitor is known to suppress PORCN (porcupine) and thus inhibit a range of oncogenes known to be directly or indirectly affected by the Wnts. In a recent unpublished work in bioRxiv, Sinha 1, we had the opportunity to rank these unknown biological hypotheses for down regulated genes at 2^nd order level after the drug was administered. The in silico observations showed that the combination of WNT10B-ASCL2 was assigned a relatively lower rank, thus validating the pipeline’s efficacy with the confirmed wet lab experiment that indicate that both WNT10B and ASCL2 were down regulated after treatment in cancer cells. Here, we take one step further by in silico analysis of the 3rd order combinations of WNT10B-X-X (X can be known or unknown factor), from a range of 100 randomly picked down regulated genes after ETC-1922159 treatment. The pipeline uses the density based HSIC (Hilbert Schmidt Information Criterion) sensitivity index with an rbf (ra- dial basis function) kernel, which is known to be highly effective in sensitivity analysis. Various unknown/unexplored/untested 3^rd order biological hypotheses emerge some of which are con- firmed in wet lab, while others need to be tested. The potential of such ranking is indispensable in the current era of search in a vast combinatorial forest.

1) Background: Respiratory tract infections (RTI) has been known to be a significant health concern for mortality and morbidity since many years. This study was aimed at determining the prevalence of bacterial pathogen causing upper respiratory tract (URTIs) and the susceptibility patterns to frequently used antibiotics among patients attending Abusetta hospital in Tripoli district; 2) Methods: A total of 1,110 throat swabs were collected between Jan, 2011 to December, 2014 and inoculated onto Blood agar, MacCkonkey agar and Chocolate agar then incubated at 37 oC for 24 hours. Bacterial pathogens were determined by bacteriological culture methods and antibiotic susceptibility of the isolates was identified following Clinical Laboratory Standard Institute guidelines (CLSI); 3) Results: Of the 1,110 respiratory samples tested, 71.1% (n = 789) of specimens were positive cultures with the dominant bacterial pathogens being streptococcus pneumonia 43.3% (n = 342), followed by pseudomonas aeruginosa 22.8% (n = 180), staphylococcus aurous 13.8% (n = 109), Escherichia Coli 6.9% (n = 55), Enterobacter spp 6.2% (n = 49), Citrobacter 4.5% (n = 36), and Klebsiella 2.2% (n = 18). Most isolates exhibited resistance against the commonly used antibiotics and to at least one antibiotic; and 4) Conclusions: The level of antibiotic resistance in this study is alarming and brings to light the timely and suitable diagnosis of the common bacteria causes of URTIs and proper antibiotic administration based on susceptibility test.

A rapid, precise, accurate and low cost method for the determination of vitamin E (α-tocopherol) in cereal products and biscuits was developed. The uncertainty was calculated for the first time and the methods were performed in different cereal products and biscuits, characterized as “superfoods”. The limits of detection and quantification were calculated. Accuracy and precision were estimated using the certified reference material FAPAS T10112QC and the determined values were in good accordance with the certified values. The health claims according to the daily reference values for vitamin E were calculated and the results proved that the majority of the samples examined showed %daily value higher than 15%.

This paper presents a methodology for determining the sensitivity of the main air flow directions in ventilation subnetworks to changes of aerodynamic resistance and of air density in mine workings. Formulae for determination of the sensitivity of the main subnetwork air flows by establishing the degree of dependency of the air volume stream in a given working on the variations in resistance or air density of other workings of the network have been developed. They have been implemented in the VentGraph mine ventilation network simulator. This software, widely used in Polish collieries provides an extended possibility to predict the process of ventilation, air distribution and, in the case of underground fire, also the spread of combustion gasses. The new method facilitates assessment by mine ventilation services of the stability of ventilation systems in exploitation areas and determine of the sensitivity of the main subnetwork air flow directions to changes of aerodynamic resistance and air density. Recently in some Polish collieries new longwalls are developed in seams located deeper then the bottom of the intake shaft. Such solution is called “exploitation below the level of access” or “sublevel”. The new approach may be applied to such developments to assess the potential of changes of direction and air flow rates. In addition, interpretation of the developed sensitivity indicator is presented. While analyzing air distributions for sublevel exploitation, application of current numerical models for calculations of the distribution results in tangible benefits, such as the evaluation of the safety or risk levels for such exploitation. Application of the VentGraph computer program, and particularly the module POŻAR (fire) with the newly developed options, enables an additional approach to the sensitivity indicator in evaluating air flow safety levels for the risks present during exploitation below the level of the intake shaft. The analyses performed and examples presented enabled useful conclusions in mining practice to be drawn.

Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) are essential in watershed delineation, but the sensitivity of simulated runoff to DEM resolution is poorly understood. This study investigates the impact of DEM resolution on topological attributes and simulated runoff in the Mahabad Dam watershed, Iran. To delineate the watershed, DEMs with 12.5 m, 30 m, and 90 m resolutions were acquired from the ALOS PALSAR, Space Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), and ASTER global DEM data source, respectively. Watershed and streamlines were delineated in ArcGIS, with hydrologic analyses performed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Sensitivity analysis on parameters contributing to runoff was done using Sequential Uncertainties Fitting Ver-2 (SUFI-2) Algorithm, in SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Procedures (SWAT-CUP) software. Results showed the watershed area, reach lengths, and elevations in the watershed varied due to DEM resolutions. Higher amounts of runoff were generated when DEMs with finer resolutions were implemented. The 12.5 m DEM generated 3.48% and 0.42% more runoff compared with 90 m and 30 m DEMs, respectively. SWAT-CUP results showed the sensitivity of parameters contributing to runoff changes under different DEM resolutions. Regardless of DEM resolution, surface properties, available water capacity, and moisture levels in the soil are the most sensitive parameters. As the distribution of slope changes in different DEM resolutions, surface parameters are most affected. The findings indicate to reduce computation time and speed up computation procedures, researchers may use DEMs with coarser resolutions at the expense of minor decreases in accuracy.

The theories of quantum mechanics and relativity dramatically altered our understanding of the universe ushering in the era of modern physics. Quantum theory deals with objects probabilistically at small scales, whereas relativity deals classically with motion in space and time. We show here that the mathematical structures of quantum theory and of relativity follow together from pure thought, defined and uniquely constrained by the same elementary ``combining and sequencing'' symmetries that underlie standard arithmetic and probability. The key is uncertainty, which inevitably accompanies observation of quantity and imposes the use of pairs of numbers. The symmetries then lead directly to the use of complex \sqrt{-1} arithmetic, the standard calculus of quantum mechanics, and the Lorentz transformations of relativistic spacetime. One dimension of time and three dimensions of space are thus derived as the profound and inevitable framework of physics.

Phenomenon of vacuum fluctuations of virtual particles in high energy physics has been mathematically modeled by a third order differential equation. Aim of present theory is to unravel underlying mathematical equation capable of explaining microscopic phenomenon of vacuum fluctuations. Solution of such a differential equation after applying appropriate boundary conditions gives an acceptable wave function i.e. . Operation of energy and time operator on this wave function proves that these operators do not hold commutative property. Time energy uncertainty principle has been derived by calculating variance of energy and time for the same wave function.

Future projections from climate models and recent studies shows impact of climate change on rainfall indices estimation. This study assesses the simulations of rainfall indices based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CMIP5 and CMIP3 in the some of subbasin Hamedan Province West of Iran. The analysis of the rainfall indices are: simple rainfall intensity, very heavy rainfall days, maximum one-day rainfall and rainfall frequency has been carried out in this study to evaluating the impact of climate change on rainfall indices events. Relative change in three rainfall indices is investigated by GCMs under various greenhouse gas emission scenarious A1B and B1 and RCP8.5, RCP8.5 scenarios for the future periods 2020–2045 and 2045-2065. The final results show that each of rainfall indices differs in stations under the three GCMs model (GIAOM, MIHR, MPEH5) and emission scenarios A1B and B1, and RCP2.5, RCP8.5 scenarios. Relative change of daily intensity index varies from -9.93% - 25%, very heavy rainfall days 20.71% - 25.9% and yearly rainfall depth -15.71% - 13% can be observed at study area in 50y for future periods (2046–2065). Rainfall indices of sum wet days, nday >1mm and maximum one-day rainfall are projected to decrease under the senariuos B1,A1B and sum wet days, simple daily intensity and heavy Rainfall days>10 projected to decrease under the RCP2.6.

The energy, momentum and the action associated with the time domain transition radiation fields are investigated. The results show that for a charged particle moving with speed $v$, the longitudinal momentum associated with the transition radiation is approximately equal to $E/c$ for values of $1-v/c$ smaller than about 10^-3 where $E$ is the total radiated energy and c is the speed of light in free space. The action of the transition radiation, defined as the product of the energy dissipated and the duration of the emission, increases as $1-v/c$ decreases and, for an electron, it becomes equal to $h/4\pi$ when $v=c-v_m$ where $v_m$ is the speed associated with the lowest energy state of a particle confined inside the universe and h is the Plank constant. Combining these results with Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle, an expression for the electronic charge based on other fundamental physical constants is derived. The best agreement between the experimentally observed electronic charge and the theoretical prediction is obtained when one assumes that the actual size of the universe is about 250 times larger than the visible universe.

The ability to smell is crucial for most species as it enables the detection of environmental threats like smoke, fosters social interactions, and contributes to the sensory evaluation of food and eating behavior. The high prevalence of smell disturbances throughout the life span calls for a continuous effort to improve tools for quick and reliable assessment of olfactory function. Odor-dispensing pens, called Sniffin' Sticks, are an established method to deliver olfactory stimuli during diagnostic evaluation. We tested the suitability of a Bayesian adaptive algorithm (QUEST) to estimate olfactory sensitivity using Sniffin' Sticks by comparing QUEST sensitivity thresholds with those obtained using a procedure based on an established standard staircase protocol. Thresholds were measured twice with both procedures in two sessions (Test and Retest). Overall, both procedures exhibited considerable overlap with QUEST displaying slightly higher test-retest correlations, less variability between measurements, and reduced testing duration. Notably, participants were more frequently presented with the highest concentration during the QUEST which may foster adaptation and habituation effects. We conclude that further research is required to better understand and optimize the procedure for assessment of olfactory performance.

Evidence shows that weightloss improves insulin sensitivity but few studies have examined the effect of macronutrient composition independently of weight loss on direct measures of insulin sensitivity. We randomised 89 overweight or obese women to either a standard diet (StdD) that was intended to be low in fat and relatively high in carbohydrate (n=42) or to a relatively high protein (up to 30% of energy), relatively high fibre (>30g/day) diet (HPHFib) (n=47) for 10 weeks. Advice regarding strict adherence to energy intake goals was not given. Insulin sensitivity and secretion was assessed by a novel method - the Dynamic Insulin Sensitivity and Secretion Test (DISST). Although there were significant improvements in body composition and most cardiometabolic risk factors on HPHFib, insulin sensitivity was reduced by 19.3% (95% CI: 31.8, 4.5%; p=0.013) in comparison with StdD. We conclude that the reduction in insulin sensitivity after a diet relatively high in both protein and fibre, despite cardiometabolic improvements, suggests insulin sensitivity may reflect metabolic adaptations to dietary composition for maintenance of glucose homeostasis, rather than impaired metabolism.

The challenge posed by multi-drug resistance (MDR) of pathogenic organisms, spectacularly manifested in the 6 “ESKAPE” bacterium (two Gram-positive, four Gram-negative) species, should invoke new comprehensive strategies, and needs cooperation of scientists with medical, veterinary and natural science background. This review is aimed at informing newcomers, coming from the field of biology and genetics, about problems related to rapidly emerging, new multi-drug resistant, pathogenic, bacteria. Unlike persistence, the antibiotic resistance is inherited. A functioning “resistance gene” makes a susceptible organism resistant to a given antibiotic, encoding for polypeptides capable of acting either as decomposing enzymes, or acting as trans-membrane pumps, or membrane structure components capable of modifying the permeability implementing a «by pass» mechanism enabling the antibiotic molecule to reach its cellular target(s). A functioning “sensitivity gene” encode for a polypeptide, capable (directly or indirectly) of transferring toxic molecules into target cells, or of metabolizing non-transferable to transferable, or non-toxic molecules to toxic derivatives. A gene of a normal function could act as a “sensitivity” gene in the presence of antibiotics of chemical structures similar to the natural substrate of the gene product, (enzyme or binding/ trans-membrane protein). The Agrocin 84 story is a good example. Multi-drug resistance is a phenotypic consequence of the sequential accumulation of mutations, and/or up-take of plasmids or genomic islands carrying resistance genes from the environment via horizontal gene transfer, mediated by conjugative plasmid or bacteriophage carrying mobile genetic elements. Both multi-drug resistance and collateral sensitivity are evolutionary products. Some revealed evolutionary process and their Lamarckian and Darwinian interpretations are discussed. Toolkits of comparative full-genome sequencing, genomics, experimental evolution and population genetics may provide perspectives for overcoming the invincibility of multi-drug panresistance. The status of some recently emerging pathogenic bacterium species with zoonic features and of veterinary background is also discussed.

Background: Detection of small proportion of serious bacterial infections (SBI) with potentially life threating course in a large group of children with fever admitted to emergency department (ED) is still complicated. Measurement of immature granulocytes (IG) percentage may be used as a marker of bacterial infections. The aim of the study was to evaluate whether the IG percentage is a useful additional predictive marker of SBI. Methods: This study included 258 children with febrile infections admitted to the ED. Clinical follow-up, microbiological and radiological tests were used as reference standards for the definition of SBI. Study population was categorized into two groups: (i) infected patients with no suspicion of SBI (n = 75); (ii) patients with suspicion of SBI (n = 183). IG percentage, white blood cell count (WBC) and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels were analyzed from the first routine blood samples at hospital admission. Results: A statistically significant difference in IG percentage levels was observed in children with SBI and those without - the mean IG percentage was 1.2% for the SBI group, 0.3% for those without SBI. The cutoff level of IG percentage to predict SBI was 0.45 (84% specificity, 66% sensitivity, 90% positive predictive value). We combine variables and evaluate their additive values. The sensitivity of WBC to detected SBI improved from 74% to 85% when IG percentage was added to the prediction models. When CRP, WBC and IG percentage were combined, the sensitivity to predict SBI increased to 93%, the specificity to 86%. (95% CI 77–93%). Receiver operator characteristic analysis to predict SBI showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.80 for IG percentage. Conclusion: Addition of IG percentage to traditionally used markers of SBI as WBC and CRP may help to identify children with serious bacterial infections. Furthermore IG percentage can be rapidly obtained from the traditional full blood count without any extra sampling and costs.

The availability of new self-sensing cement-based strain sensors allows the development of dense sensor networks for Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) of reinforced concrete structures. These sensors are fabricated by doping cement-matrix materials with conductive fillers, such as Multi Walled Carbon Nanotubes (MWCNTs), and can be embedded into structural elements made of reinforced concrete prior to casting. The strain sensing principle is based on the multifunctional composites outputting a measurable change in their electrical properties when subjected to a deformation. Previous work by the authors was devoted to material fabrication, modeling and applications in SHM. In this paper, we investigate the behavior of several sensors fabricated with and without aggregates and with different MWCNTs content. The strain sensitivity of the sensors, in terms of fractional change in electrical resistivity for unit strain, as well as their linearity are investigated through experimental testing under both static and dynamically varying compressive loadings. Moreover, the responses of the sensors when subjected to destructive compressive tests are evaluated. Overall, the presented results contribute to improving the scientific knowledge on the behavior of smart concrete sensors and to furthering their understanding for SHM applications.

Delineating the cropping area of cocoa agroforests is a major challenge for quantifying the contribution of the land use expansion to tropical deforestation. Discriminating cocoa agroforests from tropical transition forests using multi-spectral optical images is difficult due to a similarity in the spectral characteristics of their canopy; moreover, optical sensors are largely impeded by the frequent cloud cover in the tropics. This study explores multi-season Sentinel-1 C-band SAR image to discriminate cocoa agroforests from transition forests for a heterogeneous landscape in central Cameroon. We use an ensemble classifier, random forest, to average SAR image texture features of GLCM (Grey Level Co-occurrence Matrix) across seasons; next, we compare classification performance with results from RapidEye optical data. Moreover, we assess the performance of GLCM texture feature extraction at four different grey level quantization: 32bits, 8bits, 6bits, and 4bits. The classification overall accuracy (OA) of texture-based maps outperformed that from an optical image; the highest OA of 88.8% was recorded at 6bits grey level. This quantization level, in comparison to the initial 32bits in SAR images, reduced the class prediction error by 2.9%. Although this prediction gain may be large for the landscape area, the resultant thematic map reveals the decrease and fragmentation of forest cover by cocoa agroforests. According to our classification validation, the Shannon entropy (H) or uncertainty provides a reliable validation for class predictions and reveals detail inference for discriminating inherently heterogeneous vegetation categories. The texture-based classification achieved a reliable accuracy considering the heterogeneity of the landscape and vegetation classes.

Typhoon Durian forming over the Western North Pacific Ocean and entering into the South China Sea (SCS), caused extreme and widespread damages in 2006. In this research, sensitivity analyses on different physical parameterization schemes of the Weather Research and Forecasting Atmospheric Model (WRF-ATM) have been utilized to study typhoon Durian. Model accuracy and performance testing were investigated with different initial conditions during the tropical cyclone simulation in the SCS. The initial and boundary conditions (IBCs) for all experiments were derived from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Re-Analysis Interim (ERAI), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) with Final (FNL) analysis data compiled through the WRF-ATM model. The sensitivity analysis results indicated a major improvement for the cumulus scheme by using the Grell-Devenyi scheme along with the PBL scheme of Yonsei University, mixed-phase microphysics scheme of the WRF Single Moment 5-class and IBCs for ECMWF-ERAI of TC simulation under the context of Wind-Pressure Relationships. This predicted better track and intensity comparing with these of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The results revealed that the TC track and intensity were well simulated by the WSM5-GD combination for the WRF-ATM model with an intensity error of 1.69 hPa for minimum surface level pressure, maximum wind speed of 1.83 knots and average track error of 25 km in 72 hours. The simulations showed that the potential track and intensity error decreased with the delayed IBCs, suggesting that the model simulation is more dependable when the coast is approached by the TC.

This work assesses sea-level rise using three different models created on Free and Open-Source Software for Geographic Information System (FOSS4GIS). Based on regional projections of Special Report on Climate Change and Oceans and Cryosphere (SROCC) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the models were applied to a case of study on Rio Grande do Sul coast – Brazil under different sea-level rise scenarios by the end of this century. The End Point Rate for QGIS (EPR4Q), calculates a shoreline projection using End Point Rate method. The Uncertainty Bathtub Model (uBTM), analyses the sea-level rise impact by the uncertainty of sea-level projec-tions and vertical error of the Digital Elevation/Terrain Model (DEM/DTM). The Bruun Rule for Google Earth Engine Model (BRGM) predicts the shoreline position with sea-level rise, using topographic and bathymetric data from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) and Coastal Modelling System (SMC – Brazil), respectively. The results indicated a maximum shoreline retreat for 2100 of -502 m and -1727 m using EPR4Q and BRGM, correspondingly. The uBTM using the land-use of Mapbiomas showed a maximum of 44.57 km2 of urban area impacted by the sea-level flood. This research highlights the possibility of performing coastal management analysis in GIS environ-ment using non-commercial software.

We propose a methodology for the quantification of model risk in the context of credit derivatives pricing and CVA, where the uncertain or unmodelled parameter is often the correlation between rates and credit. We take the rates model to be Hull-White (normal) and the credit model to be Black-Karasinski (lognormal). We show how highly accurate analytic pricing formulae, hitherto unpublished, can be derived for CDS and extended to address instruments with defaultable Libor flows which may in addition be capped and/or floored. We also consider the pricing of a contingent CDS with an interest rate swap underlying. We derive explicit expressions showing how to good accuracy the dependence of model prices on the uncertain parameter(s) can be captured in analytic formulae which are readily amenable to computation without recourse to Monte Carlo or lattice-based computation. In so doing, we take into account the impact on model calibration of the uncertain (or unmodelled) parameter.

Recent researches proved that the underbridge geometry can be reconstructed by mounting a 3D laser scanner on a motorized cart travelling on a walkway located under the bridge. The walkway is moved by a truck and the accuracy of the bridge model depends on the accuracy of the trajectory of the scanning head with respect to a fixed reference system. In this paper, we describe the metrological characterization of a method that uses non-contact systems to identify the relative motion of the cart with respect to the walkway; the orientation of the walkway with respect to the bridge is determined using inclinometers and optical rails, while the position of the truck with respect to the bridge is measured using a conventional odometer. The measurement uncertainty of the proposed system was initially evaluated by numerical simulations and successively verified by experiments in laboratory conditions. The complete system has then been tested in operative conditions; the validity of the proposed approach has been demonstrated by comparing the geometry of buildings reconstructed with the proposed system with the geometry obtained with a static scan. Results evidenced that the errors are approximately 6 mm.

The present novel corona virus (2019-nCoV) infection has created a global emergency situation by spreading all over the world in a large scale within very short time period. The infection induced death rate is also very high. There is no vaccine or anti-viral medicine for such infection. So at this moment a major worldwide problem is that how we can control this pandemic. On the other hand, India is a high population density country, where the corona virus disease (COVID-19) has started to spread from $1^{st}$ week of March, 2020 in a significant number of COVID-19 positive cases. Due to this high population density human to human social contact rate is very high in India. So control of the pandemic COVID-19 in early stage is very urgent and challenging problem. Mathematical models are employed in this paper to study the COVID-19 dynamics, to identify the influential parameters and to find the proper prevention strategies to reduce the outbreak size. In this work, we have formulated a deterministic compartmental model to study the spreading of COVID-19 and estimated the model parameters by fitting the model with reported data of ongoing pandemic in India. Sensitivity analysis has been done to identify the key model parameters. The basic reproduction number has been estimated from actual data and the effective basic reproduction number has been studied on the basis of reported cases. Some effective preventive measures and their impacts on the disease dynamics have also been studied. Future trends of the disease transmission has been Predicted from our model with some control measures. Finally, the positive measures to control the disease have been summarized.

DNA repair helps in maintaining the proper and healthy functioning for the cells in the human body. Failure in DNA repair process can lead to aberrations as well as tumorous stages. There are various types of damages that a DNA can go through, one of which is the DNA double strand breaks (DSB) that can be repaired via homologous recombination (HR). RAD51 plays a central role in HR and has been implicated as a negative/poor prognostic marker for colorectal adenocarcinoma, with high expression in colorectal cancer. Mechanistically, RAD51AP1 facilitates RAD51 during the repairing process by binding with RAD51 via two DNA binding sites, thus helping in the D-loop formation in the HR process. Often, in biology, we are faced with the problem of exploring relevant unknown biological hypotheses in the form of myriads of combination of factors that might be affecting the pathway under certain conditions. For example, RAD51AP1-XRCC2 is one such 2^nd order combination whose relation needs to be tested under the influence recently developed Porcupine-WNT inhibitor ETC-1922159. The x-ray repair cross complementing XRCC family is known to work as a mediator or stabilizer for RAD51 during the HR process. The inhibitor is known to suppress Porcupine and thus inhibit a range of oncogenes known to be directly or indirectly affected by the Wnts. In a recent unpublished work in bioRxiv, we had the opportunity to rank these unknown biological hypotheses for down regulated genes at 2^nd order level after the drug was administered. The in silico observations showed that the combination of RAD51AP1-XRCC2 was assigned a relatively lower rank, thus validating the pipeline's efficacy with the confirmed wet lab experiment that indicate that both RAD51AP1 and XRCC2 were down regulated after treatment in cancer cells. Here, we take one step further by in silico analysis of the 3^rd order combinations of RAD51-X-X & RAD51AP1-X-X (X can be known or unknown factor), from a range of 100 randomly picked down regulated genes after ETC-1922159 treatment. The pipeline uses the density based HSIC (Hibert Schmidth Information Criterion) sensitivity index with an rbf (radial basis function) kernel, which is known to be highly effective in sensitivity analysis. Various unknown/unexplored/untested RAD51/RAD51AP1 related 3^rd order biological hypotheses emerge some of which are confirmed in wet lab, while others need to be tested.

Based on the geologic conditions of natural gas hydrate (NGH) accumulations in the Shenhu area, northern slope of the South China Sea, this paper used a method of combining reservoir stimulation technique (RST) with depressurization to investigate the conversion efficiency of marine NGH reservoirs in different intrinsic permeability and initial NGH saturation conditions, and analyze the influence of variably-stimulation effect on marine NGH conversion efficiency in different accumulation conditions, provided a reference scheme for improving the NGH conversion efficiency in the Shenhu area. In this work, we performed calculations for the variations in CH4 production rate and cumulative volume of CH4 in different initial NGH saturation, intrinsic permeability and stimulation effect conditions, variance analysis and range analysis methods were used to analyze the significance of these key factors and their interaction, and investigated the sensitivity of stimulation effect on NGH conversion efficiency, respectively. The simulation results showed that stimulation effect have a significant influence on NGH conversion efficiency, and the influence of interaction between these three factors were not obvious. Possibly most important, we clarified an optimum stimulation effect for higher NGH conversion efficiency under different accumulation conditions, especially in low-permeability and high-saturation, which corresponding stimulation effect were different.

Model-based design has received considerable attention in biological and chemical industries over the last two decades. However, the parameter uncertainties of first-principle models are critical in model-based design and have led to the development of robustification concepts. Various strategies were introduced to solve the robust optimization problem. Most approaches suffer from either unreasonable computational expense or low approximation accuracy. Moreover, they are not rigorous and do not consider robust optimization problems where parameter correlation and equality constraints exist. In this work, we propose a highly efficient framework for solving robust optimization problems with the so-called point estimation method (PEM). The PEM has a fair trade-off between computation expense and approximation accuracy and can be easily extended to problems of parameter correlations. From a statistical point of view, moment-based methods are used to approximate robust inequality and equality constraints. We also suggest employing the information from global sensitivity analysis to further simplify robust optimization problems with a large number of uncertain parameters. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed framework with two case studies where one is to design a heating/cooling profile for the essential part of a continuous production process and the other is to optimize the feeding profile for a fed-batch reactor of the penicillin fermentation process. The results reveal that the proposed approach can be used successfully for complex (bio)chemical problems in model-based design.

Despite increased global interest in the impacts of natural disasters on tourism, less study executes exploring how tourism sensitivity is addressed at the destination level. Generating a link between tourism and natural disaster management is vital in places that rely heavily on tourism and are prone to natural hazards. Ranau, Sabah (Malaysia) is one of the disaster-prone tourists' destination area. Hence, this paper applies the case study of Ranau earthquake 2015 to explore tourism sensitivity towards natural disasters. A qualitative of in-depth interview is applied to acquire information needed from the Ranau tourism entrepreneurs and operators. To analyse the qualitative data, a thematic analysis is conducted. Overall findings show that tourism activity in Ranau are identified to be sensitive towards the 2015 earthquake with a significant percentage of sensitivity level on two elements. These elements are known as Source and Power. The Source element includes tourism products, size of business, development, and natural disasters management with a significant sensitivity compared to the Power element (social capital). This provides insight to the need of specific tourism system adaptation as response to the earthquake and considering the integration of natural disaster management into tourism development to enhance long term sustainability.

Accurate and reliable project cost estimates are fundamental to achieve successful municipal capital improvement (CIP) programs. Engineering cost estimates typically represent critical information for key decision makers to authorize and efficiently allocate the necessary funds for construction, budgeting, to generate a request for proposals, contract negotiations, scheduling, etc. for these reasons, cost estimators are using different estimating methods and approaches that allow for required levels of accuracy. As the project’s scope becomes more detailed and the potential risks are identified and/or the project design stage progresses these cost estimates are revised and updated. In this paper, the most common project cost estimation methods and approaches were collected and categorized into two main groups of (1) probabilistic and (2) deterministic methods. Under these groups overall ten different methods were identified and discussed addressing their requirements, advantages, and shortcomings, including the potential risk that can positively or negatively affect the project’s cost outcome. This paper will be a good resource for professionals who are in budget development and/or are seeking to a better understanding of different methods in determining an appropriate base cost margin and produce a meaningful and reliable project cost estimate.

A quantum time-dependent spectrum analysis, or simply, quantum spectral analysis (QSA) is presented in this work, and it’s based on Schrödinger’s equation. In the classical world, it is named frequency in time (FIT), which is used here as a complement of the traditional frequency-dependent spectral analysis based on Fourier theory. Besides, FIT is a metric which assesses the impact of the flanks of a signal on its frequency spectrum - not taken into account by Fourier theory and let alone in real time. Even more, and unlike all derived tools from Fourier Theory (i.e., continuous, discrete, fast, short-time, fractional and quantum Fourier Transform, as well as, Gabor) FIT has the following advantages, among others: a) compact support with excellent energy output treatment, b) low computational cost, O(N) for signals and O(N2) for images, c) it does not have phase uncertainties (i.e., indeterminate phase for a magnitude = 0) as in the case of Discrete and Fast Fourier Transform (DFT, FFT, respectively). Finally, we can apply QSA to a quantum signal, that is, to a qubit stream in order to analyze it spectrally.

Novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern (VOC) are constantly threatening global public health. With no end date, the pandemic still persists with the emergence of novel variants that threaten the effectiveness of diagnostic tests and vaccines. Mutations in the Spike surface protein of the virus are regularly observed in the new variants, potentializing the emergence of novel viruses with different tropism from the current ones, which may change the severity and symptoms of the disease. Growing evidence has shown that mutations are being selected in favor of variants that are more capable of evading the action of neutralizing antibodies. In this context, the most important factor guiding the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 is its interaction with the host’s immune system. Thus, as current vaccines cannot block the transmission of the virus, measures complementary to vaccination, such as the use of masks, hand hygiene, and keeping environments ventilated remain essential to delay the emergence of new variants. Importantly, in addition to the involvement of the immune system in the evolution of the virus, we highlight several chemical parameters that influence the molecular interactions between viruses and host cells during invasion and are also critical tools making novel variants more transmissible. In this review, we dissect the impacts of the Spike mutations on biological parameters such as (1) increase of Spike binding affinity to hACE2; (2) bound time for the receptor to be cleaved by the proteases; (3) how mutations associate with increase of RBD up-conformation state in the Spike ectodomain; (4) expansion of uncleaved Spike protein in the virion particles; (5) increment of Spike concentration per virion particles; and (6) evasion of the immune system. These factors play key roles in the fast spreading of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern, including the Omicron.

Accurate monthly runoff estimation is fundamental in water resources management, planning, and development, resulting in preventing and reducing water-related problems, such as flooding and drought. This article evaluates the performance of the monthly hydrological rainfall-runoff model, GR2M model, in Thailand's southern basins. The GR2M model requires only two parameters, and no prior research has been reported on its application in this region. The 37 runoff stations, which are distributively located in three sub-watersheds of Thailand's southern region, namely; Thale Sap Songkhla, Peninsular-East Coast, and Peninsular-West Coast, were selected as study cases. The available monthly hydrological data of runoff, rainfall, air temperature from the Royal Irrigation Department (RID) and the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) were collected and analyzed. Thornthwaite method was utilized for the determination of evapotranspiration. The model's performance was conducted using three statistical indices: Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Correlation Coefficient (r), and Overall Index (OPI). The model's calibration results for 37 runoff stations gave the average of NSE, r, and OPI of 0.637, 0.825, and 0.757, and those values for verification of 0.465, 0.750, and 0.639, respectively. It indicated a model's acceptable performance and could apply the GR2M model for determining monthly runoff variation in this region. The spatial distribution of X1 and X2 values was conducted by using IDW method. It was susceptible to the X1 value and X2 value of approximately more than 0.90 gave the higher model's performance.

We present a generalized state-space model formulation particularly motivated by an online scheduling perspective. Through these proposed generalizations, we enable a natural way to handle routinely encountered disturbances and a rich set of corresponding counter-decisions. Thereby, greatly simplifying and extending the possible application of mathematical programming based online scheduling solutions to diverse application settings.

SLEUTH Model (slope, landuse, exclusion, urban extent, transportation and hillshade) is an important tool for landuse planning and land policy. To evaluate the performance of SLEUTH model, implementation of Sensitivity Analysis (SA) is essential. The main limitation of SA in SLEUTH application is a lack of insight into model input self-modification parameters (SMPs) variation, namely, uncertainty involved in the model transfer metrics and model presumptions, which often misled the decision makers and model users. To address this issue, this study divided the forward process into two stages. Firstly, during the transfer process ①, the contribution scores of five SMPs were drawn, and parameters highly sensitive to model output were given. Apart from that, the recommended initial value for SMPs of 0.11, 0.2, 0.87, 1.13, 15, 1.01, 0.49 were found to be subordinated to such a heterogeneous urban area simulation. Secondly, during the transfer process ②, SMP caused imagery metrics indicated the disparity between parameters with Fixed Reference and with Successive Reference. Reversely, it derives reasonable threshold for the best fit values of five prediction coefficients’ initialization by comparing the real image with the predicted one. The framework of SLEUTH model transfer mechanism not only could distinguish highly sensitive SMPs with higher contribution scores, but also could give parametric analysis for simulation imagery based on metrics. The study was found to be a practical tool for quantization response of model input variables for modelling complex urban systems. So, this insight can help geographic information scientists decide how to find out the inner forward transfer mechanism of SLEUTH model for further make good use of it and improve the model.

: Mistrust, amplified by numerous artificial intelligence (AI) related incidents, has caused the energy and industrial sectors to be amongst the slowest adopter of AI methods. Central to this issue is the black-box problem of AI, which impedes investments and fast becoming a legal hazard for users. Explainable AI (XAI) is a recent paradigm to tackle this challenge. Being the backbone of the industry, the prognostic and health management (PHM) domain has recently been introduced to XAI. However, many deficiencies, particularly lack of explanation assessment methods and uncertainty quantification, plague this young field. In this paper, we elaborate a framework on explainable anomaly detection and failure prognostic employing a Bayesian deep learning model to generate local and global explanations from the PHM tasks. An uncertainty measure of the Bayesian model is utilized as marker for anomalies expanding the prognostic explanation scope to include model’s confidence. Also, the global explanation is used to improve prognostic performance, an aspect neglected from the handful of PHM-XAI publications. The quality of the explanation is finally examined employing local accuracy and consistency properties. The method is tested on real-world gas turbine anomalies and synthetic turbofan data failure prediction. Seven out of eight of the tested anomalies were successfully identified. Additionally, the prognostic outcome showed 19% improvement in statistical terms and achieved the highest prognostic score amongst best published results on the topic.

Previous research has shown that the effectiveness of selecting filter set from a large set of commercial broadband filters by vector analyzing method based on maximum linear independence (MLI). However, the traditional MLI is suboptimal due to predefining the first filter of the selected filter set being the maximum ℓ2 norm among all those of the filters. An exhaustive imaging simulation is conducted to investigate the features of the most competent filter set. In the simulation, every filter in a subset of all the filters is selected serving as the first filter in turn. From the results of the simulation, we found there are remarkable characteristics for the most competent filter set. Besides smaller condition number, the geometric features of the best-performed filter set comprise the distinct peak of the transmittance of the first filter, the generally uniform distributing of the peaks of the transmittance curve of the filters, the substantial overlapping of the transmittance curves with those of the adjacent filer sets. Therefore, the best-performed filter sets can be decided intuitively by simple vector analyzing and just a few experimental verifications. This work would be useful for optimizing spectral sensitivity of broadband multispectral imaging sensors or SFA sensors.

The description of the microscopic world in quantum mechanics is very different from that in classical physics, and there are some points of view that are contrary to intuition and logic. The first is the loss of reality, the behavior of micro particles shows randomness and hopping. The second is the loss of certainty, the conjugate physical variables of a system cannot be determined synchronously, they satisfy the Heisenberg uncertainty principle. The third is the non-local correlation. The measurement of one particle in the quantum entanglement pair will change the state of the other entangled particle simultaneously. In this paper, some concepts related to quantum entanglement, such as EPR correlation, quantum entanglement correlation function, Bell's inequality and so on, are analyzed in detail. Analysis shows that the mystery and confusion in quantum theory may be caused by the logical problems in its basic framework. Bell's inequality is only a mathematical theorem, but its physical meaning is actually unclear. The Bell state of quantum entangled pair may not satisfy the dynamic equation of quantum theory, so it cannot describe the true state of microscopic particles. In this paper, the correct correlation functions of spin entanglement pair and photonic entanglement pair are strictly derived according to normal logic. Quantum theory is a more fundamental theory than classical mechanics, and they are not parallel relation in logic. However, there are still some unreasonable contents in the framework of quantum theory, which need to be improved. In order to disclose the real relationship between quantum theory and classical mechanics, we propose some experiments which show the wave-particle duality simultaneously and provide intuitionistic teaching materials for the new interpretation of quantum theory.

Global population is predicted to approach 10 billion by 2050, an increase of over 2 billion from today. To meet the demands of growing, geographically and socio-economically diversified nations, we need to diversity and expand agricultural production. This expansion of agricultural productivity will need to occur under increasing biotic, and environmental constraints driven by climate change. Clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats-site directed nucleases (CRISPR-SDN) and similar genome editing technologies will likely be key enablers to meet future agricultural needs. While the application of CRISPR-Cas9 mediated genome editing has led the way, the use of CRISPR-Cas12a is also increasing significantly for genome engineering of plants. The popularity of the CRISPR-Cas12a, the type V (class-II) system, is gaining momentum because of its versatility and simplified features. These include the use of a small guide RNA devoid of trans-activating crispr RNA (tracrRNA), targeting of T-rich regions of the genome where Cas9 is not suitable for use, RNA processing capability facilitating simpler multiplexing, and its ability to generate double strand breaks (DSB) with staggered ends. Many monocot and dicot species have been successfully edited using this Cas12a system and further research is ongoing to improve its efficiency in plants, including improving the temperature stability of the Cas12a enzyme, identifying new variants of Cas12a or synthetically producing Cas12a with flexible PAM sequences. In this review we provide a comparative survey of CRISPR-Cas12a and Cas9, and provide a perspective on applications of CRISPR-Cas12 in agriculture.

The design of curved surface sliders (CSS) based on the elastic response spectrum is done by iteration to find the combination of friction coefficient and displacement capacity which satisfies the condition that the maximum horizontal CSS force is equal to the horizontal force of the structure. Although this CSS design is valid it does not necessarily minimize structural acceleration. This paper therefore describes the optimum CSS design for minimum structural acceleration. All valid CSS designs and the optimum CSS design are represented by their associated trajectory in the elastic response spectrum plane which visualizes the optimization problem. The results demonstrate that the optimum CSS design is not obtained at maximum tolerated effective damping ratio. The subsequent sensitivity analysis describes how much the structural acceleration increases if the actual friction coefficient of the real CSS deviates from its optimum design value. The analysis points out that the increase in structural acceleration is approximately one order of magnitude smaller than the deviation in friction. The sensitivity data may be used by structural engineer to determine tolerable deviations in friction coefficient which still results in acceptable structural accelerations.

Towards the investigation and further understanding of the development and propagation of Medicanes, this study explores the forecasting capability of WRF model in case of cyclone “Cleopatra” which affected with extreme rainfall and strong winds Sardinia and Calabria, Italy, in November 2013. This cyclone was unusual in that it developed a warm core but did not fulfill its transformation into a tropical-like cyclone because its core did not expand high enough in the tropospnere. The ERA5 reanalysis dataset was dynamically downscaled from 31 km spatial horizontal resolution to 9 km using WRF model. The methodology consists of; firstly, an extensive physical parameterization schemes sensitivity test and consequently, a short-range ensemble forecasting implementation based on the highest statistical scored physics configuration. All simulation results were validated against surface observations and remote sensing products. Subsequently, the modeled cyclone trajectories are compared to satellite imagery derived from EUMETSAT-SEVIRI gridded data. The findings of the conducted analysis illustrate that ensemble average displays significant difference in performance compared to any of the deterministic runs individually, suggesting that ensemble forecasts will be beneficial in studies assessing cyclonic events in the Mediterranean region.

Studies performed at single-cell resolution have demonstrated the physiological significance of cell-to-cell variability. Various types of mathematical models and systems analyses of biological networks have further been used to gain a better understanding of the sources and regulatory mechanisms of such variability. In this work, we present a novel sensitivity analysis method, called molecular density function perturbation (MDFP), for the dynamical analysis of cellular heterogeneity. The proposed analysis is based on introducing perturbations to the density or distribution function of the cellular state variables at specific time points, and quantifying how such perturbations affect the state distribution at later time points. We applied the MDFP analysis to a model of signal transduction pathway involved in TRAIL (tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand)-induced apoptosis in HeLa cells. The MDFP analysis showed that caspase-8 activation regulates the timing of the switch-like increase of cPARP (cleaved poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase), an indicator of apoptosis. Meanwhile, the cell-to-cell variability in the commitment to apoptosis depended on mitochondrial outer membrane permeabilization (MOMP) and events following MOMP, including the release of Smac (second mitochondria-derived activator of caspases) and cytochrome-C from mitochondria, the inhibition of XIAP (X-linked inhibitor of apoptosis) by Smac and the formation of apoptosome.

Energy Measurement and Verification (M&V) aims to make inferences about the savings achieved in energy projects, given the data and other information at hand. Traditionally, a frequentist approach has been used to quantify these savings and their associated uncertainties. We demonstrate that the Bayesian paradigm is an intuitive, coherent, and powerful alternative framework within which M&V can be done. Its advantages and limitations are discussed, and two examples from the industry-standard International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol (IPMVP) are solved using the framework. Bayesian analysis is shown to describe the problem more thoroughly and yield richer information and uncertainty quantification than the standard methods while not sacrificing model simplicity. We also show that Bayesian methods can be more robust to outliers. Bayesian alternatives to standard M&V methods are listed, and examples from literature are cited.

Background: Flow-through dot-blot assay (FT-DBA) for SARS-CoV-2 specific IgG detection will provide a reliable and affordable immunoassay for the rapid serosurveillance against COVID-19. Method: SARS-CoV-2 antigens were immobilized on nitrocellulose membrane to capture IgG immunoglobulins, which were then detected with AuNP anti-human IgG. A total of 181 samples were characterized with in-house and commercial immunoassay. The positive panel consisted of RT-PCR positive samples from patients with both <14 days and >14 days from the onset of symptoms, while the negative panel contained samples collected either from the pre-pandemic era dengue patients from healthy donors during the pandemic period. Results: In-house ELISA selected a total of 79 true seropositive and 100 seronegative samples. The sensitivity of samples with <14 days using FT-DBA was 94.7% which increased to 100% for samples >14 days. The overall detection sensitivity and specificity were 98.8% and 98%, respectively, whereas the overall PPV and NPV were 97.6% and 99%. Moreover, comparative analysis between ELISA and FT-DBA revealed clinical agreement of Cohen’s Kappa value of 0.944. Conclusion: The assay can confirm past SARS-CoV-2 infection with high accuracy within 2 minutes compared to ELISA. It can help track SARS-CoV-2 disease progression, population screening, and vaccination response.

Around 14% of the global population does not have access to electricity. About 95% of those are living in rural Sub-Saharan Africa. Often in these regions, diesel generators are the only source of electricity. The operating cost of these diesel generators is high. However, solar and wind energy are available in most of African countries. This study presents the analysis of designing an off-grid hybrid system with a wind turbine, PV, diesel generator, and battery to power a hospital, school, and 200 household village in four locations across Somalia. The research investigated the availability of wind-solar resources in selected locations. Designing of the system and economic-technical calculations were performed using HOMER. The selection of the optimum design was based on the Cost of Electricity and Net Present Cost. The results show that for Kabaal and Ceel Buur, a WT-PV-DG-Battery is the optimal system as the wind resource in these regions is high. For Saakov and Baki, a PV-DG-Battery system proves to be optimum as the wind resource is limited here. The study also evaluated the control strategy and proved that combined dispatch was the most cost-effective for these locations. The study concluded that hybrid systems are more economical than diesel systems.

The effects of transcranial magnetic stimulations (TMS) show that the human brain is impacted by some magnetic fields (EMFs). Moreover, after a delay, it produces potentials that reveal a subsequent processing of this impact. The human brain might also be sensitive to very weak magnetic fields of extremely low frequencies (vwEMFelf). Namely, to the vwEMelf produced by the brain of other persons when they process visual stimuli. In effect, two studies report that the event-related brain potentials (ERPs) that are evoked by presenting a picture to a participant can be modulated by simultaneously presenting a picture to a partner. To confirm it here, we followed most of the methods of these studies. We recorded the ERPs evoked by presenting, at each trial, the photograph of a face. Simultaneously and, most importantly, privately, we presented a partner with the same or with a different face photograph. ERPs of participants were found to depend on that sameness (p0.001), unbeknownst to them. These joint processing effects (JPEs), confirm a sensitivity of the human brain to the vwEMFelf produced by other brains.

Soil hydraulic properties are often derived indirectly, i.e. computed from easily available soil properties with pedotransfer functions (PTFs), when those are needed for catchment, regional or continental scale applications. When predicted soil hydraulic parameters are used for the modelling of the state and flux of water in soils, uncertainty of the computed values can provide more detailed information when drawing conclusions. The aim of this study was to update the previously published European PTFs (Tóth et al., 2015, euptf v1.4.0) by providing prediction uncertainty calculation built into the transfer functions. The new set of algorithms was derived for point predictions of soil water content at saturation (0 cm matric potential head), field capacity (both -100 and -330 cm matric potential head), wilting point (-15.000 cm matric potential head), plant available water, and saturated hydraulic conductivity, as well as the Mualem-van Genuchten model parameters of the moisture retention and hydraulic conductivity curve. The minimum set of input properties for the prediction is soil depth and sand, silt and clay content. The effect of including additional information like soil organic carbon content, bulk density, calcium carbonate content, pH and cation exchange capacity were extensively analysed. The PTFs were derived adopting the random forest method. The advantage of the new PTFs is that they i) provide information about prediction uncertainty, ii) are significantly more accurate than the euptfv1, iii) can be applied for more predictor variable combinations than the euptfv1, 32 instead of 5, and iv) are now also derived for the prediction of water content at -100 cm matric potential head and plant available water content.

Structural and biochemical studies have recently revealed a range of rationally engineered nanobodies with efficient neutralizing capacity against SARS-CoV-2 virus and resilience against mutational escape. In this work, we combined atomistic simulations and conformational dynamics analysis with the ensemble-based mutational profiling of binding interactions for a diverse panel of SARS-CoV-2 spike complexes with nanobodies. Using this computational toolkit, we identified dynamic signatures and binding affinity fingerprints for the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein complexes with nanobodies Nb6 and Nb20, VHH E, a pair combination VHH E+U, a biparatopic nanobody VHH VE, and a combination of CC12.3 antibody and VHH V/W nanobodies. Through ensemble-based deep mutational profiling of stability and binding affinities, we identify critical hotspots and characterize molecular mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein binding with single ultra-potent nanobodies, nanobody cocktails and biparatopic nanobodies. By quantifying dynamic and energetic determinants of the SARS-CoV-2 S binding with nanobodies, we also examine the effects of circulating variants and escaping mutations. We found that mutational escape mechanisms may be controlled through structurally and energetically adaptable binding hotspots located in the host receptor-accessible binding epitope that are dynamically coupled to the stability centers in the distant epitope targeted by VHH U/V/W nanobodies. The results of this study suggested a mechanism in which through cooperative dynamic changes, nanobody combinations and biparatopic nanobody can modulate the global protein response and induce the increased resilience to common escape mutants.

Over a billion people live in slums, with poor sanitation, education, property rights and working conditions having direct impact on current residents and future generations. A key problem in relation to slums is slum mapping. Without delineations of where all slum settlements are, informed decisions cannot be made by policymakers in order to benefit the most in need. Satellite images have been used in combination with machine learning models to try and fill the gap in data availability of slum locations. Deep learning has been used on RGB images with some success but since labeled satellite images of slums are relatively low quality and the physical/visual manifestation of slums significantly varies within and across countries, it is important to quantify the uncertainty of predictions for reliable application in downstream tasks. Our solution is to train Monte Carlo dropout U-Net models on multispectral 13-band Sentinel-2 images from which we can calculate pixelwise epistemic (model) and aleatoric (data) uncertainty in our predictions. We trained our model on labelled images of Mumbai and verified our epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty quantification approach using altered models trained on modified datasets. We also used SHAP values to investigate how the different features contribute towards the model’s predictions and this showed that certain short-wave infrared and red-edge image bands are powerful features for determining the locations of slums within images. Having created our model with uncertainty quantification, in the future it can be applied to downstream tasks and decision-makers will know where predictions have been made with low uncertainty, giving them greater confidence in its deployment.

Starting from unidentified objects moving inside a two-dimensional Euclidean manifold, we propose a simple method to detect the topological changes that occur during their reciprocal interactions and shape morphing. This method, which allows the detection of topological holes development and disappearance, makes it possible to solve the uncertainty due to disconnectedness, lack of information and absence of objects’ sharp boundaries, i.e., the three troubling issues which prevent scientists to select the required proper sets/subsets during their experimental assessment of natural and artificial dynamical phenomena, such as fire propagation, wireless sensor networks, migration flows, neural networks’ and cosmic bodies’ analysis.

It is unclear which noise exposure time window and noise characteristics during nighttime are most detrimental for sleep quality in real life settings. We have conducted a field study with 105 volunteers wearing a wrist actimeter to record their sleep during seven days, together with concurrent outdoor noise measurements at their bedroom window. Actimetry recorded sleep latency increased by 5.6 minutes (95% confidence interval: 1.6 to 9.6 minutes) per 10 dB(A) increase in noise exposure during the first hour after bedtime. Actimetry assessed sleep efficiency was significantly reduced by 2-3 percent per 10 dB(A) increase in measured outdoor noise (Leq, 1h) for the last three hours of sleep. For subjectively reported sleepiness, noise exposure during the last hour prior to wake up was most crucial with an increase in the sleepiness score of 0.31 units (95% CI: 0.08 to 0.54) per 10 dB(A) Leq,1h. Associations for estimated indoor noise were not more pronounced than for outdoor noise. Considering noise events in addition to equivalent sound pressure levels (Leq) only marginally improved the statistical models. Our study provides evidence that matching the nighttime noise exposure time window to the individual’s diurnal sleep-wake pattern results in a better estimate of detrimental nighttime noise effects on sleep. We found that noise exposure at the beginning and the end of the sleep is most crucial for sleep quality.

Bladder cancer is one of the most common malignant diseases in the urinary system and a highly aggressive neoplasm. The prognosis is not favourable usually and its evolution for particular patients is very difficult to find out. In this paper we propose a dynamic mathematical model that describes the bladder tumor growth and the immune response evolution. This model is customized for a single patient, determining appropriate model parameter values via model calibration. Due to the uncertainty of the tumor evolution, using the calibrated model parameters, we predict the tumor size and the immune response evolution over the next few months assuming three different scenarios: favourable, neutral and unfavourable. In the former, the cancer disappears; in the second a 5mm tumor is expected around the middle of August 2018; in the worst scenario, a 5mm tumor is expected around the end of May 2018. The patient has been cited around June 15th, 2018, to check the tumor size, if it exists.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the Spanish economy hard. The result is an unprecedented economic and social crisis due to uncertainty about the remedy, and due to the socio-economic effects on people’s lives. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of the macro-economic impact of COVID-19 in 2020, using the principal indicators of the Spanish economic and productive model. National statistics were examined in the search for impacts or anomalies occurring since the beginning of the pandemic. To estimate the strength of the impact on each of the indicators analysed, we used Bayesian structural time series. Results: In 2020, the cumulative impact on the Gross Domestic Product was of -11.41% [95% credible interval: -13.46; -9.29]. The indicator for Business Turnover fell by -9.37% [-12.71; -6.07]. The reduction in business activity was related to the sharp fall in demand. The Spanish employment market was strongly affected; our estimates showed a cumulative increase of 11.9% [4.27; 19.45] in the rate of unemployment during 2020. The autonomous communities which are economically the most heavily dependent on the services sector were those which recorded the worst indicators. Conclusions: Our estimates portray a dramatic situation in our country, and show all too clearly the fragility of a productive system which has to make the behavioural changes that are necessary to confront the COVID-19 pandemic.

The experiments of Project 8 have been excellent, but the expected goals still difficult to achieve. So much so that some of the results at your fingertips were also missing. In view of this, the focus of this article is to clarify several easy confused concepts. Only in this way, we can reasonably explain the experimental data. The main points are as follows: 1. The value c of the light speed in vacuum and a particle with zero static mass, both of which do not exist in the reality. That is to say, the so-called a photon's static mass is equal to zero but has energy, which is a paradox that confuses two different definitional domains. 2. In the reality, photons are high-speed particles generated by electromagnetic radiation. They must have the characteristics of (static) mass, energy and wave, in order to describe the main body to aim at photons from different angles. 3. After any main body comes into being electromagnetic radiation, its static mass will inevitably decrease accordingly. 4. The charge-mass ratio of an electron is a physical constant, which is the ratio of its charge to the amount of matter, and is not affected by relativistic effects and electromagnetic radiation. 5. The uncertainty of moving electrons is caused by random electromagnetic radiations. Finally, it is pointed out that if the cyclotron frequency of a single electron is measured, and at the same time, its de Broglie wavelength or frequency can also be measured, then its static mass can be obtained. Even so, the expected goals are still difficult to achieve, because random electromagnetic radiations are always taking away continually the matter composition of the single electron being measured. However, this was precisely a result of the research obtained by Project 8, and had universality, which should be reflect on.

Hydrologic models are conventionally constrained and evaluated using point measurements of streamflow, which represents an aggregated catchment measure. As a consequence of this single objective focus, model parametrization and model parameter sensitivity are typically not reflecting other aspects of catchment behavior. Specifically for distributed models, the spatial pattern aspect is often overlooked. Our paper examines the utility of multiple performance measures in a spatial sensitivity analysis framework to determine the key parameters governing the spatial variability of predicted actual evapotranspiration (AET). Latin hypercube one-at-a-time (LHS-OAT) sampling strategy with multiple initial parameter sets was applied using the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) and a total of 17 model parameters were identified as sensitive. The results indicate different parameter sensitivities for different performance measures focusing on temporal hydrograph dynamics and spatial variability of actual evapotranspiration. While spatial patterns were found to be sensitive to vegetation parameters, streamflow dynamics were sensitive to pedo-transfer function (PTF) parameters. Above all, our results show that behavioral model definition based only on streamflow metrics in the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) type methods require reformulation by incorporating spatial patterns into the definition of threshold values to reveal robust hydrologic behavior in the analysis.

Conventional method for monitoring the IgG levels suffered from some apparent problems such as long assay time, multistep processing, and high overall cost. An effective and suitable optical platform for label-free biosensing has been investigated by the implementation of antibody/antigen immunoassays. Thus, the ultrasensitive detection of IgG levels can be achieved by exploiting the dispersion turning point (DTP) existed in the tapered two-mode fibers (TTMFs) due to the sensitivity will reach ±∞ on either side of the DTP. Tracking the resonant wavelength shift it was found that the fabricated TTMF device exhibited limits of detection (LOD) down up to concentrations of 10 fg/mL of IgG in PBS solution. Such immunosensors based on the DTP have great significance on trace detection of IgG due to simple detection scheme, quick response time, and miniaturation.

The classical uncertainty principle inequalities were imposed as a mathematical constraint over the general relativity geodesic equation. In this way, the uncertainty principle was reformulated in terms of the proper space-time length element, Planck length and a geodesic-derived scalar, leading to a geometric expression for the uncertainty principle (GeUP). This re-formulation confirmed the necessity for a minimum length for the space-time line element in the geodesic, dependent on a geodesic-derived scalar which made the expression Lorentz-covariant. In agreement with quantum gravity theories, GeUP required the imposition of a perturbation over the background Minkowski metric unrelated to classical gravity. When applied to the Schwarzschild metric, a geodesic exclusion zone was found around the singularity where uncertainty in space-time diverged to infinity.

The current work investigates how adding a battery of optimal capacity to a grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) system can improve its economic feasibility. Also, the effect of different parameters on the feasibility of the PV system was evaluated. The OBC was determined for different saving targets of the annual electricity consumption of the chosen building. For this aim, real electricity consumption data of a residential building in Landskrona, Sweden, was used as energy consumption profile. Solar World SW325XL, which is a monocrystalline solar panel, was selected as PV panels. The calculations were performed under the metrological and economic conditions of southern Sweden. Different working parameters (WP)were considered (prices of the battery, feed-in tariffs, and saving targets). The performed calculations show that the optimal battery capacity (OBC), in which the payback time (PBT) of the system is maximized, strongly depends on the WP. The proper selection of the battery can considerably increase the economic feasibility of the PV system in southern Sweden. However, in some cases, using battery can have a negative impact on the PBT of the system. The results show that the electricity price, the module price, the inverter price, and the inverter lifetime have the highest effect on the PBT.

Since the beginning, humans advanced their civilization by making better tools to improve their lives. Tools and products were designed for better living considering manufacturing issues, cost and time as predominant criteria. It has become clear that not considering environment and society, both at local/global levels, has now become a major impediment affecting living conditions on a large portion of the Earth and in many societies. Design methodologies should lead to creative solutions with consideration to engineering and economics for practicality but also to environmental and social constraints for sustainability. We propose a comprehensive design methodology based on multidisciplinary design to include the knowledge of humanities, environmentalists, science and engineering, and allowing for experts’ inputs from these areas to provide a holistic approach to engineering design . For example, experts in humanities are expected to interact with stakeholders to evaluate their value systems to provide guidance for the design. The methodology that we synthesize is new and combines (i) Societal level impacts at all scales, (ii) Environmental impacts and (iii) Engineering design with economic impacts, including uncertainty considerations. The proposed design methodology is called Social-Environmental-Economical-Engineering Framework (SEEEF). It can utilize concepts and tools such as Circular Design, Doughnut Economics, design based on environmental life cycle analysis, among others. SEEEF is quantity based and provides steps for evaluating any project or product in an objective manner and will help train engineers in design for sustainability. It also provides non-engineers with a significant role in design to increase their understanding of the hard constraints of engineering. Ultimately, SEEEF allows society to take an informed decision considering short/long term and local/global impacts of the design and the pertinent uncertainties.

The cardioprotective effects of volatile anesthetics versus total intravenous anesthesia (TIVA) are controversial, especially in patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery. Using current generation high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn), we aimed to evaluate the effect of anesthetics on the occurrence of myocardial injury after non-cardiac surgery (MINS). From February 2010 to December 2016, 3555 patients without preoperative hs-cTn elevation underwent non-cardiac surgery under general anesthesia. Patients were grouped according to anesthetic agent; 659 patients were classified into a propofol-remifentanil total intravenous anesthesia (TIVA) group, and 2896 patients were classified into into a volatile group. To balance the use of remifentanil between groups, a balanced group (n=1622) was generated with patients who received remifentanil infusion in the volatile group, and two separate comparisons were performed (TIVA vs. volatile and TIVA vs. balanced). The primary outcome was occurrence of MINS, defined as rise of hs-cTn I ≥ 0.04 ng/mL within postoperative 48 hours. The secondary outcomes were 30-day mortality, postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI), and adverse events during hospital stay (mortality, type I myocardial infarction (MI), and new-onset arrhythmia). In propensity-matched analyses, the occurrence of MINS was lower in the TIVA group compared to the volatile group (OR 0.642; 95% CI 0.450-0.914; p = 0.014). However, after balancing the use of remifentanil, there was no difference between groups in the risk of MINS (OR 0.832; 95% CI 0.554-1.251; p-value = 0.377). There were no significant associations between the two groups in type 1 MI, new-onset atrial fibrillation, in-hospital and 30-day mortality before and after balancing the use of remifentanil. However, the incidence of postoperative AKI was lower in the TIVA group (OR 0.362; 95% CI 0.194-0.675; p-value = 0.001). After balancing the use of remifentanil, volatile anesthesia and TIVA showed comparable effects on MINS in patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery without preoperative myocardial injury. Further studies are needed on the benefit of remifentanil infusion.

Typhoid fever is a major public health burden which causes substantial global morbidity and mortality due to lack of decisive diagnostic protocols. The capacity of commonly use diagnostic test to validate the absence of typhoid fever is controversial. This study explores to evaluate new techniques for typhoid diagnosis and proposed a harmonised suitable standardized composite reference to be adopted. Published peer-reviewed articles indexed in PubMed, MEDLINE and Google scholar were reviewed for hospital-based studies. This study reveals new typhoid diagnostic techniques such as proteomics, serology, Rapid Diagnostic tests (RDTs), transcriptomics, genomics, and metabolomics. 34.4% of the studies use prospective study design. The study result establishes that, Widal test has a moderate diagnostic accuracy with average percentage sensitivity (52.9%), specificity (54%), positive predictive value (PPV) (56.8%) as well as negative predictive value (NPV) (55.6%) when compared with 29.4%, 28%, 29.5%, and 27.8% of Typhidot respectively. The findings showed a statistically significant difference on the sensitivity between Widal and Typhidot t (40) = 2.639, p = 0.012 at p<0.05 using independent sample t-test. When there is no perfect reference standard that has an optimal diagnostic accuracy, the need for a harmonised suitable standardized composite reference is essential. Hence, this study recommends that, peripheral blood culture with established sensitivity of 60% and Widal test with average sensitivity of 52.9% be adopted as a consensus composite reference standard for typhoid fever diagnosis in other to improve confidence in prevalence estimates.

The active debate about the processes governing the organic-rich sediment deposition generally involves the relative roles of elevated primary productivity and enhanced preservation related to anoxia. However, other less spotlighted factors could have a strong impact on such deposits: e.g. residence time into the water column (bathymetry), sedimentation rate, transport behavior of organo-mineral floccules on the sea floor. They are all strongly interrelated and may be obscured in the current conceptual models inspired from most representative modern analogues (i.e. upwelling zones and stratified basins). To improve our comprehension of organic matter distribution and heterogeneities, we conducted a sensitivity analysis on the processes involved in organic matter production and preservation which have been simulated within a 3D stratigraphic forward model. The Lower-Middle Toarcian of the Paris Basin was chosen as a case study as it represents one of the best documented example of marine organic matter accumulation. The relative influence of the critical parameters (bathymetry, diffusive transport, oxygen mixing rate and primary production) on the output parameters (Total Organic Carbon, and oxygen level), determined performing a Global Sensitivity Analysis, shows that, in the context of a shallow epicontinental basin, a moderate primary productivity (> 175 gC.m^-².yr^-1) can led to local anoxia and organic matter accumulation. We argue that, regarding all the processes involved, the presence and distribution of organic-rich intervals is linked as a first-order parameter to the morphology of the basin (e.g. ramp slope, bottom topography). These interpretations are supported by very specific ranges of critical parameters which allowed to obtain output parameter values in accordance with the data. This quantitative approach and its conclusions open new perspectives about the understanding of global distribution and preservation of organic-rich sediments.

This paper introduces a surrogate model to reduce the huge computational load in the process of simulation-optimization and uncertainty analysis. First, the groundwater numerical simulation model was established, calibrated and verified in the northeast of Hetao Plain. Second, two surrogate models of simulation model were established using support vector regression (SVR) method, one (surrogate model A, SMA) was used to describe the corresponding relationship between the pumping rate and average groundwater table drawdown, and another (surrogate model B, SMB) was used to express the corresponding relationship between the hydrogeological parameter values and average groundwater table drawdown. Third, an optimization model was established to search an optimal groundwater exploitation scheme using the maximum total pumping rate as objective function and the limitative average groundwater table drawdown as constraint condition, the SMA was invoked by the optimization model for obtaining the optimal groundwater exploitation scheme. Finally, the SMB was invoked in the process of uncertainty analysis for assessing the reliability of optimal groundwater exploitation scheme. Results show that the relative error and root mean square error between simulation model and the two surrogate models are both less than 5%, which is a high approximation accuracy. The SVR surrogate model developed in this study could not only considerably reduce the computational load, but also maintain high computational accuracy. The optimal total pumping rate is 7947 m3/d and the reliability of optimal scheme is 40.21%. This can thus provide an effective method for identifying an optimal groundwater exploitation scheme and assessing the reliability of scheme quickly and accurately.

Shale gas reservoirs (SGR) are important replacements for conventional energy resources and have been widely exploited by hydraulic fracturing technologies. On the one hand, due to the inherent ultra-low permeability and porosity, there is stress sensitivity in the reservoirs generally. On the other hand, hydraulic fractures and the stimulated reservoir volume (SRV) generated by the massive hydraulic fracturing operation have contrast properties with the original reservoirs. These two phenomena bring huge challenges in SGR transient pressure analysis. Although some works in the literatures have been done on the transient pressure analysis of multi-fractured horizontal wells in SGR, unfortunately, none of them has taken the stress sensitivity and spatially varying permeability of SRV zone into consideration simultaneously. To fill this gap, this paper first idealizes the SGR to be four linear composite regions. What’s more, SRV zone is further divided into sub-sections on the basis of non-uniform distribution of proppant within SRV zone which easily yields spatially varying permeability away from the main hydraulic fracture. The stress sensitivity is characterized by the varying permeability depended on the pore pressure. By means of perturbation transformation and Laplace transformation, an analytical multi-linear flow model (MLFM) is obtained and validated by the comparison with the previous model. On the basis of our model, the flow regimes are identified and the sensitivity analysis of critical parameters are conducted to further understand the transient pressure behaviors. The research results provided by this work are of significance for well test interpretation and production performance analysis of SGR.

We applied a framework to assess climate change vulnerability of 52 major vegetation types in the western United States to provide spatially-explicit input to adaptive management decisions. The framework addressed climate exposure and ecosystem resilience; the latter derived from analyses of ecosystem sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Measures of climate change exposure used observed climate change (1981-2014) and then climate projections for the mid-21st century (2040-2069 RCP 4.5). Measures of resilience included (under ecosystem sensitivity) landscape intactness, invasive species, fire regime alteration, and forest insect & disease risk, and (under adaptive capacity), measures for topo-climate variability, diversity with functional species groups, and vulnerability of any keystone species. Outputs are generated per 100km² hexagonal area for each type. As of 2014, moderate climate change vulnerability was indicated for >50% of the area of 50 of 52 types. By the mid-21^st century, all but 19 types face high or very high vulnerability with >50% of the area scoring in these categories. Measures for resilience explain most components of vulnerability as of 2014, with most targeted vegetation scoring low in adaptive capacity measures and variably for specific sensitivity measures. Elevated climate exposure explains increases in vulnerability between the current and mid-century time periods.

Early stroke diagnosis remains a big challenge in healthcare partly due to the lack of reliable diagnostic blood biomarkers, which in turn leads to increased rates of mortality and disability. Current screening methods are optimised to identify patients with a high risk of cardio-vascular disease, especially among the elderly. However, in young adults and children, these methods suffer low sensitivity and specificity and contribute to further delays in their triage and diagnosis. Accordingly, there is an urgent need to develop reliable blood biomarkers for triaging patients suspected of stroke in all age groups, especially children and young adults. This review explores some of the existing blood biomarkers, as single biomarkers, or biomarker panels, and examine their sensitivity and specificity for predicting stroke. A review was performed on PubMed and Web of Science for journal articles published in English during the period 2001 to 2021 which contained information regarding biomarkers of stroke. In this review article, we provide comparative information on the availability, clinical usefulness, and time-window periods of eight single blood biomarkers and six biomarker panels that have been used for predicting stroke in emergency situations. The outcomes of this review can be used in future research for developing more effective stroke biomarkers.

Magneto-optic surface plasmon resonance (MOSPR) based sensors are highly attractive as next generation biosensors. However, these sensors suffer from oxidation leading to degradation of performance, reproducibility of the sensor surface because of the difficulty of removing adsorbed materials, and degradation of sensor surface during surface cleaning, and these limit their applications. In this paper, I propose MOSPR-based biosensors with 0 to 15 nm thick inert polycarbonate laminate plastic as a protective layer and theoretically demonstrate the practicability of our approach in water-medium for three different probing samples: ethanol, propanol, and pentanol. I also investigate microstructure and magnetic properties. The chemical composition and layered information of the sensor are investigated using X-ray reflectivity and X-ray diffraction analyses and these show distinct fcc-Au (111) phases, as dominated by the higher density of conduction electrons in Au as compared to Co. The magnetic characterization measured with the in-plane magnetic field to the sensor surface for both the as-deposited and annealed multilayers showed isotropic easy axis magnetization parallel to the multilayer interface at a saturating magnetic field of <100 Oe. The sensor showed a maximum sensitivity of 5.5 × 10⁴%/RIU for water-ethanol media and the highest detection level of 2.5 × 10⁻⁸ for water-pentanol media as the protective layer is increased from 0 to 15 nm.c

Aim: This research is aimed at examining the cost-effectiveness of olanzapine versus risperidone in dementia patients with behavioural and psychological symptoms in Thailand. Methods: An existing Markov model based on a critical review through the comprehensive literature search and a justification for the most appropriate model for a Thai setting was adapted to simulate the disease progression of patients with dementia with behavioural disturbances until their need for full-time care (FTC). The time to the FTC state was estimated by a predictive equation developed by Rive et al. (2010). The model was conducted to assess the expected costs and outcomes associated with olanzapine compared with risperidone for Thai patients with BPSD aged 60 years and above. This model performed over a five-year time horizon with a one-month cycle length based on a societal perspective. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was used as the estimated outcome. Sensitivity analyses were also conducted to demonstrate the robustness of the results. Results: Over 5 years, olanzapine was found to be a cost-effective therapeutic option for the treatment of behaviourally disturbed patients with dementia compared with risperidone, in Thailand from a societal perspective (ICER < THB 160,000). The model underwent extensive sensitivity analyses, which also confirmed that olanzapine was the dominant strategy following the base-case findings. Conclusions: By comparison with risperidone, the model suggests that olanzapine can be regarded as a cost-effective therapeutic strategy for the management of patients with behavioural and psychological symptoms in Thailand.