preprints.org > business, economics and management > accounting and taxation > doi: 10.20944/preprints202103.0469.v1

Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 17 March 2021 / Approved: 18 March 2021 / Online: 18 March 2021 (10:50:16 CET)

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the Spanish economy hard. The result is an unprecedented economic and social crisis due to uncertainty about the remedy, and due to the socio-economic effects on people’s lives. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of the macro-economic impact of COVID-19 in 2020, using the principal indicators of the Spanish economic and productive model. National statistics were examined in the search for impacts or anomalies occurring since the beginning of the pandemic. To estimate the strength of the impact on each of the indicators analysed, we used Bayesian structural time series. Results: In 2020, the cumulative impact on the Gross Domestic Product was of -11.41% [95% credible interval: -13.46; -9.29]. The indicator for Business Turnover fell by -9.37% [-12.71; -6.07]. The reduction in business activity was related to the sharp fall in demand. The Spanish employment market was strongly affected; our estimates showed a cumulative increase of 11.9% [4.27; 19.45] in the rate of unemployment during 2020. The autonomous communities which are economically the most heavily dependent on the services sector were those which recorded the worst indicators. Conclusions: Our estimates portray a dramatic situation in our country, and show all too clearly the fragility of a productive system which has to make the behavioural changes that are necessary to confront the COVID-19 pandemic.

Economic impact; uncertainty; COVID-19, productive system, Spain

Business, Economics and Management, Accounting and Taxation

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