Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Spatial Pattern Oriented Multi-Criteria Sensitivity Analysis of a Distributed Hydrologic Model

Version 1 : Received: 10 August 2018 / Approved: 11 August 2018 / Online: 11 August 2018 (18:36:29 CEST)

How to cite: Demirel, M.C.; Koch, J.; Mendiguren, G.; Stisen, S. Spatial Pattern Oriented Multi-Criteria Sensitivity Analysis of a Distributed Hydrologic Model. Preprints 2018, 2018080209 (doi: 10.20944/preprints201808.0209.v1). Demirel, M.C.; Koch, J.; Mendiguren, G.; Stisen, S. Spatial Pattern Oriented Multi-Criteria Sensitivity Analysis of a Distributed Hydrologic Model. Preprints 2018, 2018080209 (doi: 10.20944/preprints201808.0209.v1).

Abstract

Hydrologic models are conventionally constrained and evaluated using point measurements of streamflow, which represents an aggregated catchment measure. As a consequence of this single objective focus, model parametrization and model parameter sensitivity are typically not reflecting other aspects of catchment behavior. Specifically for distributed models, the spatial pattern aspect is often overlooked. Our paper examines the utility of multiple performance measures in a spatial sensitivity analysis framework to determine the key parameters governing the spatial variability of predicted actual evapotranspiration (AET). Latin hypercube one-at-a-time (LHS-OAT) sampling strategy with multiple initial parameter sets was applied using the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) and a total of 17 model parameters were identified as sensitive. The results indicate different parameter sensitivities for different performance measures focusing on temporal hydrograph dynamics and spatial variability of actual evapotranspiration. While spatial patterns were found to be sensitive to vegetation parameters, streamflow dynamics were sensitive to pedo-transfer function (PTF) parameters. Above all, our results show that behavioral model definition based only on streamflow metrics in the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) type methods require reformulation by incorporating spatial patterns into the definition of threshold values to reveal robust hydrologic behavior in the analysis.

Subject Areas

mHM, remote sensing, spatial pattern, sensitivity analysis, GLUE, actual evapotranspiration

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