Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Forecasting the Bladder Tumor Size and Immune Response of a Patient Over the Time Using a Dynamic Mathematical Model

Version 1 : Received: 30 May 2018 / Approved: 31 May 2018 / Online: 31 May 2018 (08:18:00 CEST)

How to cite: Burgos, C.; García-Medina, N.; Martínez-Rodríguez, D.; Pontones, J.; Ramos, D.; Villanueva, R. Forecasting the Bladder Tumor Size and Immune Response of a Patient Over the Time Using a Dynamic Mathematical Model. Preprints 2018, 2018050461 (doi: 10.20944/preprints201805.0461.v1). Burgos, C.; García-Medina, N.; Martínez-Rodríguez, D.; Pontones, J.; Ramos, D.; Villanueva, R. Forecasting the Bladder Tumor Size and Immune Response of a Patient Over the Time Using a Dynamic Mathematical Model. Preprints 2018, 2018050461 (doi: 10.20944/preprints201805.0461.v1).

Abstract

Bladder cancer is one of the most common malignant diseases in the urinary system and a highly aggressive neoplasm. The prognosis is not favourable usually and its evolution for particular patients is very difficult to find out. In this paper we propose a dynamic mathematical model that describes the bladder tumor growth and the immune response evolution. This model is customized for a single patient, determining appropriate model parameter values via model calibration. Due to the uncertainty of the tumor evolution, using the calibrated model parameters, we predict the tumor size and the immune response evolution over the next few months assuming three different scenarios: favourable, neutral and unfavourable. In the former, the cancer disappears; in the second a 5mm tumor is expected around the middle of August 2018; in the worst scenario, a 5mm tumor is expected around the end of May 2018. The patient has been cited around June 15th, 2018, to check the tumor size, if it exists.

Subject Areas

bladder cancer; dynamic model; uncertainty quantification; model calibration; cancer prognosis

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