ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.2020.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public Health And Health Services Keywords: avoidable mortality; life expectance at birth; treatable mortality; preventable mortality
Online: 30 August 2023 (08:16:56 CEST)
This study investigated mortality discrepancies in Korea, 2000-2020, with a focus on age, gender, and preventable causes of death, and their impact on life expectancy at birth. The study utilized data from Korean Standard Classification of Diseases and OECD/Eurostat lists of preventable and treatable causes of death and employed Arriaga's method. Noteworthy findings revealed gender disparities in life expectancy increases, with male gaining an advantage over females from 2000-2020 (8.142 years for males versus 6.806 years for females). The most significant increase in life expectancy was found to be in males aged 70-74 and females aged 75-79. The gender gap in LEB is narrowing and that the main age group contributing to the gender gap are getting older. Reduced gains in life expectancy at birth resulted from avoidable mortality, contributing 57.3% to the increase. Cerebrovascular disease and transport accidents were positive contributors, whereas suicide and certain cancers were negative contributors. The changes in mortality for individuals aged 65 and over had an impact of 45.44% (males) and 71.01% (females) on life expectancy gains. This study offers a novel approach in evaluating avoidable mortality and life expectancy, having the potential to improve international health indicators and inform health policies.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0674.v2
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: COVID-19; vaccination; all-cause mortality; excess mortality
Online: 15 September 2023 (05:26:17 CEST)
Using publicly available data for 28 EU/EES countries from Eurostat and Our World in Data, we investigate how the current rate of Covid vaccination in a country compares to its average rate of excess mortality (EM) in the pandemic to date. We find that, in the linear regression, the correlation between average EM and vaccination rate is strongly negative, a priori evidence to support the claim that the Covid vaccines have saved many lives. However, a closer analysis of the timeline suggests otherwise. The correlation was already strongly negative before the vaccines were rolled out and is only weakly negative thereafter. In theory, survivor bias could still explain this shift, especially since waves of EM closely align with Covid waves. However, we find in addition that about half of our 28 countries experienced higher EM in 2022 than in 2021, and all that did so have higher than average vaccination rates. This is something which survivor bias cannot explain and raises the real possibility that the vaccines have not just failed to save many lives, but may have already caused net harm. Moreover, any such harm may be ongoing since we find that EM and vaccination rates have been consistently positively correlated since April 2022. We show that all these findings are robust to several different ways of measuring EM and/or vaccination rates. Finally, using public data from Worldometers, we show that the correlation over time of official Covid mortality rates with current vaccination rates closely tracks that of EM rates, even as Covid mortality has waxed and waned and even in the post-omicron period.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202210.0078.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Obstetrics And Gynaecology Keywords: Africa; Maternal mortality rate; Joinpoint regression analysis; mortality; trends.
Online: 7 October 2022 (10:30:10 CEST)
Background: United Nations Sustainable Development Goals state that by 2030, the Global maternal mortality rate (MMR) should be lower than 70 per 100,000 live births. MMR is still one of Africa's leading causes of death among women. This research aims to study regional trends in maternal mortality in Africa. Methods: We extracted data for Maternal mortality rates per 100,000 births from the UNICE data bank from 2000 to 2017, being 2017 the last date available. Joinpoint regression was used to study the trends and estimate the annual percent change (APC). Results: Maternal mortality has decreased in Africa over the study period by an average APC of -3.0% (95% CI -2.9;-3,2%). All regions showed significant downward trends, with the sharpest decreases in the South. Only the North African region is close to the United Nations' sustainable development goals for Maternal mortality. The remaining sub-Saharan African regions are still far from achieving the goals. Conclusions: maternal mortality has decreased in Africa, especially in the South Africa region. The only region closed to the United Nations target is North Africa. The remaining sub-Saharan African regions are still far from achieving the goals. These results could be used for the development of Regional Policies.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202209.0353.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Obstetrics And Gynaecology Keywords: Africa; Maternal mortality rate; Joinpoint regression analysis; mortality; trends
Online: 23 September 2022 (03:06:07 CEST)
Background: United Nations Sustainable Development Goals state that by 2030, the Global maternal mortality rate (MMR) should be lower than 70 per 100,000 live births. MMR is still one of Africa's leading causes of death among women. This research aims to study regional trends in maternal mortality in Africa. Methods: We extracted data for Maternal mortality rates per 100,000 births from the World Bank database from 1990-2015. Joinpoint regression was used to study the trends and estimate the annual percent change (APC). Results: Maternal mortality has decreased in Africa over the study period by an average APC of -2.6%. All regions showed significant downward trends, with the sharpest decreases in East Africa. Only the North African region is close to the United Nations' sustainable development goals for Maternal mortality. The remaining sub-Saharan African regions are still far from achieving the goals. Conclusions: maternal mortality has decreased in Africa, especially in East Africa. The only region closed to the United Nations target is North Africa. The remaining sub-Saharan African regions are still far from achieving the goals. These results could be used for the development of Regional Policies.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0321.v2
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: CoViD-19; Mortality; Weekly Cycle; Weekly Mortality Cycle; Pandemic
Online: 17 December 2020 (11:40:15 CET)
Background. The Weekly Mortality Cycle among CoViD-19 patients has been studied.Methods. Mortality data obtained from the 'Worldometer' website were analyzed with a comparison of absolute values, percentages, and p-value. Results. For patients suffering from CoViD-19, the most favorable or the safest days of the week were Sundays and Mondays. Conclusion. The weekly cycle with decreased mortality on Sundays and Mondays is a unique phenomenon observed among victims of CoViD-19. Presumably the decreased mortality on certain days of the week related to the optimized therapeutic protocols used on the "safest days".
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202011.0382.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public Health And Health Services Keywords: alcohol, tobacco, mortality, mortality as health indicator, health inequality
Online: 13 November 2020 (13:35:27 CET)
Background: Drinking and smoking have economic consequences and are the main risk factors of mortality and morbidity. Disease-specific deaths attributable to using substances present the primary health indicator in this study. This analysis focuses on mortality in productive age, 15 to 64 years since those deaths are considered the highest economic burden. Method: In the analytical part, data from the Registry of deaths of the Czech Republic for 1994 to 2017 were used. The number of deaths attributable to smoking and drinking was calculated using attributable fractions, based on literature review. This research aimed to reveal the gender differences in deaths attributable to drinking and smoking, according to age, and the differences in deaths regarding smoking or drinking. Results: The mortality attributable to smoking and drinking differs across age groups and genders. The highest median share of tobacco-related deaths is in the age group, 60—64 years. The highest median share of alcoholic deaths is in the age group of 50—54 years. Conclusions: There are significant differences between genders in both, smoking and drinking. A prevention program should be targeted to different age groups.
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Pediatrics, Perinatology And Child Health Keywords: infant; newborn; Cambodia; child mortality; perinatal mortality; health services
Online: 22 May 2019 (08:44:44 CEST)
Objectives: The aim of this study was to describe potential factors contributing to neonatal mortality in Takeo, Cambodia through assessment of verbal autopsies collected following newborn deaths in the community. The mortality review was nested within a trial of a behavioral intervention to improve newborn survival, and was conducted after the close of the trial, within the study setting. The World Health Organization standardized definition of neonatal mortality was employed, and two pediatricians independently reviewed data collected from each event to assign a cause of death. Results: Thirteen newborn deaths of infants born in health facilities participating in a community based, behavioral intervention were reported during February 2015–November 2016. Ten deaths (76.92%) were early neonatal deaths, two (15.38%) were late neonatal deaths, and one was a stillbirth. Five out of 13 deaths (38.46%) occurred within the first day of life. The largest single contributor to mortality was neonatal sepsis; six of 13 deaths (46.15%) were attributed to some form of sepsis. Twenty-three percent of deaths were attributed to asphyxia. The study highlights the continuing need to improve quality of care and infection prevention and control, and to fully address causes of sepsis, in order to effectively reduce mortality in the newborn period.: The study highlights the continuing need to improve both intrapartum and postnatal quality of care and infection prevention and control, and to fully address causes of sepsis, in order to effectively reduce mortality in the newborn period.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.2080.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public Health And Health Services Keywords: Africa; ARIMA; Maternal mortality rate; Joinpoint regression analysis; Mortality; trends
Online: 29 June 2023 (09:42:35 CEST)
(1) Background: With the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) (2015-2030) fo-cusing on reducing maternal mortality, monitoring and forecasting Maternal Mortality Rates (MMR) in regions like Africa become crucial for health strategy planning by policymakers, in-ternational organizations, and NGOs. (2) Methods: We collected maternal mortality rates per 100,000 births from the World Bank database between 1990 and 2015. Join Point regression was applied to assess trends, and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used on 1990-2015 data to forecast the MMR for the next 15 years. (3) Results: The study found a decline in MMR in Africa with an average annual percentage change (APC) of -2.6% (95% CI -2.7; -2.5). North Africa reported the lowest MMR, while East Africa experienced the sharpest decline. The region-specific ARIMA models predict that the maternal mortality rate (MMR) in 2030 will vary across regions, ranging from 65 deaths per 100,000 births in North Africa to 249 deaths per 100,000 births in Central Africa., averaging 197 per 100,000 births for the continent. (4) Conclusions: Despite the observed decreasing trend in maternal mortality rate (MMR), the MMR in Africa remains relatively high. The results indicate that MMR in Africa will continue to decrease by 2030. However, only North and South Africa will likely reach the SDG target.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202202.0153.v2
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Epidemiology And Infectious Diseases Keywords: winter mortality; trends; season; estimated influenza mortality; pandemic influenza; aging
Online: 25 February 2022 (14:24:30 CET)
Trends in excess winter mortality (EWM) were investigated from the winter of 1900/01 to 2019/20. During the 1918-1919 Spanish flu epidemic a maximum EWM of 100% was observed in both Denmark and the USA. During the Spanish flu epidemic in the USA 70% of excess winter deaths were coded to influenza. EWM steadily declined from the Spanish flu peak to a minimum around the 1970’s to 1980’s. There is evidence that this decline was accompanied by a shift in deaths away from the winter, and that the EWM calculation shifted from a maximum around April to June in the early 1900’s to around March since 1967. EWM has a good correlation with the number of estimated influenza deaths, but in this context influenza pandemics after the Spanish flu only had an EWM equivalent to that for seasonal influenza. Using data from 1980 onward the effect of influenza vaccination on EWM was examined using a large international data set. No effect of increasing influenza vaccination could be discerned; however, there are multiple competing forces influencing EWM which will obscure any underlying trend, e.g., increasing age at death, multimorbidity, dementia, polypharmacy, diabetes, and obesity – all of which either interfere with vaccine effectiveness or are risk factors for influenza death. After adjusting the trend in EWM in the USA influenza vaccination can be seen to be masking higher winter deaths among a high morbidity US population. Winter deaths are clearly the outcome of a complex system of competing long-term trends.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.1433.v2
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public, Environmental And Occupational Health Keywords: COVID-19; full vaccination; booster vaccination; all-cause mortality; excess mortality
Online: 28 August 2023 (09:48:47 CEST)
This study updates previous research showing that 22 all-cause mortality in 31 European countries increased over time the higher the 21 COVID-19 full vaccination uptake. The update illuminates that a one percentage point increase in 21 full vaccination uptake initially decreased all-cause mortality from Jan to Mar 22 by –0.423 percent (95% CI –0.577, –0.270), but the following 14 months, a one percentage point increase in 21 booster vaccination uptake oppositely increased mortality by 0.366 percent (95% CI 0.250, 0.482). The findings indicate that full vaccination initially prevented mortality, but subsequently, booster vaccination, in particular, detrimentally and consistently induced higher mortality. The effects remained robust when controlling for alternative explanations. Studies have argued that heat waves caused mortality in the 22 summer and energy prices caused mortality in the 22-23 winter. However, the update shows that booster vaccination consistently induced higher mortality when neither heat waves nor energy prices were likely explanations.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201806.0198.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Probability And Statistics Keywords: quantile regression; quantile time series; demographics; mortality; longevity; modelling mortality projection
Online: 12 June 2018 (15:05:09 CEST)
This paper has three objectives, the first is to present a detailed overview in the form of a tutorial for the developments of several key quantile time series modelling approaches. The second objective is to develop a general framework to represent such quantile models in a unifying manner in order to easily develop extensions and connections between existing models that can then be developed to further extend these models in practice. In this regard, the core theme of the paper is to provide perspectives to a general audience of core components that go into construction of a quantile time series model and then to explore each of these core components in detail. The paper is not addressing the concerns of estimation of these models, as there is existing literature on these aspects in many settings, we provide references to relevant works on these aspects in several classes of model. Instead, the focus is rather to provide a unified framework to construct such models for practitioners, therefore the focus is instead on the properties of the models and links between such models from a constructive perspective. The third objective is to compare and discuss the application of the different quantile time series models on several sets of interesting demographic and mortality based time series data sets of relevance to life insurance analysis. The exploration included detailed mortality, fertility, births and morbidity data in several countries with more detailed analysis of regional data in England, Wales and Scotland.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202311.1872.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Pediatrics, Perinatology And Child Health Keywords: COVID-19; children; mortality
Online: 29 November 2023 (10:35:39 CET)
Background: COVID-19 is currently one of the most important medical challenges as it affects the entire population with children being infected as easily as adults. Objective: The study evaluated the mortality of under 17-year-olds and compare the frequency with that of adults in a cohort of 8986 COVID-19 positive patients hospitalized in a single care center. Design: retrospective clinical trial, all hospitalizations of COVID-19 positive patients as diagnosed by RT-qPCR were analyzed by revisiting their medical records. Setting: 8986 COVID-19 positive patients hospitalized in a Hospital de Base and the Infant and Maternal Hospital of São Jose do Rio Preto, SP, Brazil (HB/HCM) being these totals of 383 COVID-19 positive under 17-patients. Patients: patients COVID-19 positive under 17-year-olds were grouped by age and evaluated by analyzing their medical records. They were categorized as Group I, children, and adolescents under 19 years old and Group II, adults over 19 years. Results: Overall mortality in under 19-year-olds was 12 deaths, that is, 3.13% of the patients in this age group and 0.55% of the overall mortality from COVID-19. Mortality in the group of adults was 2197 equivalent to 24.45% of the hospitalized adults and 99.45% of overall deaths. Mortality was significantly higher for adults than for under 19-year olds (p-value < 0.0001). Regarding the different ages of children and adolescents, the number of deaths of under 1-year olds was 2/123 (1.62%), of 1-4 years it was 4/95 (2.11%), of 5-9 years it was 1/47 (2.13%), of 10-14 years it was 1/40 (2.5%) and of 15-19 years it was 4/78 (5.13%). There were no statistical differences between the different age groups ( p-value = 0.3). Conclusion: Mortality from COVID-19 in children and adolescents was lower than in adults and generally associated with other comorbidities with the main association being with heart disease.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202011.0718.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Temperature; Mortality; Heatwave; Epidemiology
Online: 30 November 2020 (11:08:26 CET)
There is increasing evidence that rising temperatures and heatwaves in the United Kingdom are associated with an increase in heat-related mortality. This study aims to retrospectively quantify the impact of heatwaves on mortality during the 2019 summer period using daily death occurrences. Second, it compares excess mortality during the 2019 heatwaves to excess mortality during the 2018 and 2017 heatwave periods. Lastly, it compares the excess mortality in the 2017-2019 heatwaves to the estimated excess deaths for the same period in the Public Health England (PHE) Heatwave mortality monitoring Reports. The cumulative number of excess deaths during the summer 2019 heatwaves were minimal and were substantially lower than during the summer 2018 heatwaves (1,700 deaths) and summer 2017 heatwaves (1,489 deaths). All findings were at variance with the PHE Heatwave mortality monitoring reports which estimated cumulative excess deaths to be 892, 863 and 778 during the summer period of 2019, 2018 and 2017 respectively using provisional death registrations. Issues have been identified in the use of provisional death registrations for mortality monitoring and the reduced reliability of the ONS daily death occurrence database before 2019. These findings may identify more reliable ways to monitor heat mortality during heatwaves in the future.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201810.0392.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Clinical Medicine Keywords: albumin; mortality; necrotizing fasciitis
Online: 17 October 2018 (17:18:59 CEST)
Background: Hypoalbuminemia is known to be associated with adverse outcome in critical illness. In this study, we attempted to identify if hypoalbuminemia on emergency department (ED) arrival a reliable predictor for in-hospital mortality in necrotizing fasciitis (NF). patients. Method: A retrospective cohort study of hospitalized patients with NF was conducted in a tertiary teaching hospital in Taiwan between March 2010 and March 2018. Blood samples were collected in the ED upon arrival, and serum albumin levels were determined. we evaluated the predictive value of serum albumin level at ED presentation for in-hospital mortality. All collected data were statistically analyzed. Result: Of the 707 NF patients, 40 (5.66%) died in the hospital. The mean serum albumin level was 3.1 ± 0.9 g/dL and serum albumin levels were significantly lower in the non-survivor group than in the survivor group (2.8± 0.7 g/dL vs. 3.5 ± 0.8 g/dL). In the multivariable logistic regression model, albumin was associated with in-hospital mortality significantly (odds ratio[OR] 0.92, 95% confidential interval (CI) 0.88–0.96, P <0.001). The area under-the-receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC) for in-hospital survival was 0.77 (95% CI 0.72–0.82) and corresponding sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive and negative likelihood ratio were 66%, 74%, 33%, 88%, 2.25 and 0.48, respectively. High sensitivity (96%) was shown at albumin level of 4.0 g/dL and high specificity (91%) was shown at level of 2.5 g/dL. Conclusion: Initial serum albumin levels were independently associated with in-hospital mortality among adult patients with necrotizing fasciitis and demonstrated fair discriminative performance in the prediction of in-hospital mortality. NF patients with hypoalbuminemia on ED arrival should be closely monitored for signs of deterioration and consider early and aggressive intervention to prevent mortality.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.1888.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Medicine And Pharmacology Keywords: potentially inappropriate medications; potential medication omissions; seniors; readmissions; mortality; reducing admissions; reducing mortality
Online: 29 August 2023 (03:51:01 CEST)
Introduction: The goals of this retrospective cohort study of 129,443 persons admitted to Calgary acute care hospitals 2013-2021 were to ascertain correlations of “potentially inappropriate medi-cations” (PIMs), “potential prescribing omissions” (PPOs) and other risk factors with readmissions and mortality. Methods: Processing and analysis codes were built in Oracle Database 19c (PL/SQL), R and Excel. Results: The percentage dying during their hospital stay rose from 3.03% during the first to 7.2% during the 6th admission. The percentage dying within 6 months of discharge rose from 9.4% after the first to 24.9 after the sixth admission. Odds ratios (adjusted for age, gender and comorbidities) for readmission were the post-admission number of medications (1.16; 1.12-1.12), STOPP PIMs (1.16; 1.15-1.16); AGS Beers PIMs (1.11; 1.11-1.11) and START omissions not corrected with a prescription (1.39 (1.35-1.42). Odds ratios for mortality were post-admission number of medications (1.04; 1.04-1.05), STOPP PIMs (0.99; 0.96-1.00); AGS Beers PIMs (1.08; 1.07-1.08) and START omissions not corrected with a prescription (1.56 (1.50-1.63). START omissions corrected with a prescription correlated with a dramatic reduction in mortality (0.51; 0.49-0.53). Odds ratios for readmissions for the second through 39th admission were consistently higher if START PPOs were not corrected for the second admission (1.41; 1.36-1.46), third (1.41;1.35-1.48); fourth 1.35;1.28-1.44); fifth 1.38; 1.28-1.49); sixth (1.47;1.34-1.62) and 7th through 39th admission (1.23; 1.14-1.34). For all admissions when a pre-scription was given to correct START PPOs ORs for mortality within six months of discharge were dramatically improved (0.51; 0.49-0.53). This was also true for the second (0.52; 0.50-0.55; fourth (0.56; 0.52-0.61; fifth (0.63; 0.57-0.68); sixth (0.68; 0.61-0.76); and 7th through 39th admissions (0.71; 0.65-0.78). Conclusions: PPOs should be corrected by prescriptions and teams of family physicians, pharmacists and nurses should focus on patients’ understanding of their illnesses, medications and ability for self-care.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.2098.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Epidemiology And Infectious Diseases Keywords: Endocarditis; mortality; retrospective cohort; Brazil.
Online: 31 October 2023 (14:22:57 CET)
Background: Despite advances in diagnosis and treatment, the incidence and mortality of infective endocarditis (IE) have increased in recent decades despite advances in diagnosis and treatment. Studies on the risk factors for mortality in endocarditis in Latin America are scarce. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included 240 patients diagnosed with IE according to the modified Duke criteria who were admitted to two university hospitals in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil from January 2009 to June 2021. Poisson regression analysis was performed for trend tests. The multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of predictors of in-hospital mortality. Findings: The median age was 55 years (IQR: 39-66 years), 57% were male, and 41% had a Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) score > 3. Healthcare-associated infective endocarditis (54%), left-sided native valve IE (77.5%), and staphylococcal IE (26%) predominated. Overall in-hospital mortality was 45.8%, and mortality was significantly higher in the following patients: aged ≥ 60 years (53%), CCI score ≥ 3 (60%), healthcare-associated infective endocarditis (HAIE) (53%), left-sided IE (51%), and enterococcal IE (67%). Poisson regression analysis showed no trend in in-hospital mortality per year. The adjusted multivariate model determined that age ≥ 60 years was an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality (HR = 1.9; 95% CI 1.2-3.1; p = 0.008). Interpretation: In this 12-year retrospective cohort, there was no evidence of an improvement in survival in patients with IE. Since older age is a risk factor for mortality, consensus is needed for the management of IE in this group of patients.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.1286.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Transplantation Keywords: Graft rejection; survival; mortality; chemotherapy
Online: 19 September 2023 (10:22:28 CEST)
Background: Systemic treatment options for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver transplantation (LT) are limited in patients in whom sorafenib treatment was failed. The purpose of our study was to compare outcomes among sorafenib, regorafenib, and nivolumab treatment groups in patients with recurrent HCC after LT. Methods: This study retrospectively evaluated patients who received sorafenib for recurrent HCC treatment after LT at a single center from March 2007 to December 2018. Some patients received regorafenib or nivolumab after sorafenib treatment failure. Results: Fifty-six patients were treated with sorafenib due to HCC recurrence. Among these, 38 patients (67.9%) continued treatment with sorafenib only; the other 18 patients (32.1%) were converted to regorafenib treatment. Ten patients (17.9%) of these 18 were converted to nivolumab after sorafenib and regorafenib therapy failed. The disease-free survival and overall survival (OS) from LT were not different among the three groups. In addition, OS from HCC recurrence, sorafenib usage, and usage of each systemic therapeutic agent were not different among the three groups. Three cases in the nivolumab group developed acute rejection; one of these led to graft failure and death due to antibody-mediated rejection. Conclusion: Sequential regorafenib or nivolumab treatment in recurrent HCC LT patients does not improve OS compared sorafenib treatment.
BRIEF REPORT | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0731.v2
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Emergency Medicine Keywords: Emergency; Frailty; Mortality; IF-VIG
Online: 17 July 2023 (15:15:01 CEST)
Background: Frailty assessment allows the identification of patients at risk of death, and it is a challenge in both emergency departments and support wards. The aim here was to study the ability of the Frail-VIG Index (FI-VIG) in order to discriminate frailty groups of older adults and garner its correlation with mortality in an emergency department short-stay unit (2) Methods: Our observational, single-center, prospective study consecutively included patients over 65-years-old admitted to the unit between March 1, 2021, and April 30, 2021. (3) Results: A total of 302 patients were included (56% women), with a mean age of 83 ± 8 years, and 39.1% of them had a functional disability whilst 16.5% of them had dementia. A total of 174 patients (58%) met the frailty criteria (FI-VIG ≥0.2): 111 (63.8%) had mild frailty (FI-VIG 0.2 - 0.36), 52 (29.9%) had moderate frailty (FI-VIG 0.36 - 0.55), and 11 (6.3%) had advanced frailty (FI-VIG >0.55). Mortality at 30 days, 6 months, and 1 year was analyzed: no frailty was 6.3%, 10.8%, and 12.5%, respectively; mild frailty was 10.8%, 22.5%, and 22.5%, respectively; moderate frailty was 25%, 34.6%, and 42.3%, respectively; and advanced frailty was 36.4%, 54.5%, and 3.6%, respectively. This shows the significant differences between the groups (1-year mortality p<0.001). Mild frailty vs. non-frail HR was 2.47 (95%CI 1.12 - 5.46), moderate frailty vs. non-frail HR was 6.93 (95%CI 3.16 - 15.23), and advanced frailty vs. non-frail HR was 11.29 (95%CI 3.54 - 36.03). The mean test time was 7 minutes. (4) Conclusions: There was a strong correlation between frailty degree and mortality at 1, 6, and 12 months. FI-VIG Index is a fast and easy-to-use tool in this setting, and its routine implementation in SSUs could enable early risk stratification in order to detect vulnerable patients with specific needs.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202301.0433.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public Health And Health Services Keywords: COVID-19; Cohort; Mortality; Mexico
Online: 24 January 2023 (13:21:09 CET)
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the high prevalence of comorbidities in Mexico, as well as the disparities between public and private health subsystems, substantially contributed to the severe impact it had in the country. The objective of this study was to evaluate and compare risk factors present at admission for mortality of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. A 2-year retrospective cohort study of hospitalized adult patients with COVID-19 was conducted at a private tertiary care center. The study population consisted of 1,258 patients with a median age of 56 ± 16.5 years, of whom 1,093 recovered (86.8%) and 165 died (13.1%). In the univariate analysis, older age (p <0.001), comorbidities such as hypertension (p <0.001) and diabetes (p <0.001), signs and symptoms of respiratory distress, and markers of acute inflammatory response were significantly more frequent in non-survivors. The multivariate analysis showed that older age (p <0.001), the presence of cyanosis (p 0.005) and previous myocardial infarction (p 0.032) were independent predictors for mortality. In the studied cohort, risk factors present at admission associated with an increased risk of death were older age, cyanosis and a previous myocardial infarction, which can be used as valuable predictors for patients’ outcomes. To our knowledge, this is the first study analyzing predictors of mortality in COVID-19 patients attended on a private tertiary hospital in Mexico.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0222.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Epidemiology And Infectious Diseases Keywords: Tuberculosis; Mortality; Indigenous; Logistic Regression
Online: 11 August 2022 (12:00:20 CEST)
Aim. To identify factors associated with mortality with tuberculosis diagnosis in the indigenous population in Peru 2015-2019. Methods. Case-control study nested in a retrospective cohort, using the registry of persons belonging to indigenous peoples of the National Tuberculosis Prevention and Control Strategy of the Ministry of Health of Peru. A descriptive analysis was applied, and then bivariate and multiple logistic regression was used to evaluate associations between the variables and the outcome (live-deceased), the results were presented as OR with their respective 95% confidence intervals. Results. The mortality rate of the total indigenous population of Peru was 1.75 deaths per 100,000 indigenous people diagnosed with TB. The community of Kukama kukamiria - Yagua reported 505 (28.48%) individuals. The final logistic model showed that indigenous men (OR=1.93; 95% CI: 1.001-3.7), with a history of HIV prior to TB (OR=16.7; 95% CI: 4.7-58.7) and indigenous people in old age (OR=2.95; 95% CI: 1.5-5.7), are factors associated with a greater chance of dying from TB. Conclusions. It is important to reorient health services among indigenous populations, especially those related to improving the timely diagnosis and early treatment of TB-HIV co-infection, to ensure comprehensive care for this population, considering that they are vulnerable groups.
BRIEF REPORT | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0617.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Biochemistry And Molecular Biology Keywords: COVID-19; India; mortality data
Online: 25 May 2021 (15:06:40 CEST)
The harrowing second wave of COVID-19 in India has led to much discussion over the quality and timeliness of reporting of deaths attributed to the pandemic. In this brief report, we aim to present the existing evidence, as well as the broader complexities surrounding the mortality burden of COVID-19 in India. This article sheds light on the following epidemiological issues: (1) general and India-specific challenges to COVID-19 death reporting, (2) latest COVID-19 mortality estimates in India as of May 16, 2021, (3) the apparent scale of uncaptured COVID-19 deaths, and (4) the role of disaggregated historic mortality trends in quantification of excess deaths attributed to COVID-19. We conclude with a set of high-level policy recommendations for improving the vital surveillance system and tracking of causes of death in India. We encourage direct efforts to integrate health data and indirect strategies for cross-validation of registered deaths. Such system-wide advances would drastically aid epidemiological research efforts and strengthen India’s position to overcome future public health crises.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202006.0114.v2
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Gastroenterology And Hepatology Keywords: Pancreaticoduodenectomy; feeding jejunostomy; morbidity; mortality
Online: 5 September 2020 (06:33:29 CEST)
Aims and objectives: The primary aim of our study was to evaluate morbidity and mortality following feeding jejunostomy in pancreaticoduodenectomy compared to the control group. We also evaluated individual complications like delayed gastric emptying; post operative pancreatic fistula, superficial and deep surgical site infection. Material and Methods: The study was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement and MOOSE guidelines. Heterogeneity was measured using Q tests and I2.the random-effects model was used. Results: Four studies including Total of 1639 patients were included in the analysis. Total 843 patients were included in Feeding jejunostomy group and 796 patients included in control group without feeding jejunostomy. Over all morbidity was significantly higher in feeding jejunostomy group. (P = 0.001). There was no significant difference between both the groups. (P=0.07). Delayed gastric emptying was significantly higher in feeding jejunostomy group. [P=0.021]. There was no significant difference in development of pancreatic fistula between the two groups. Deep surgical site infection was significantly higher in feeding jejunostomy group. (P=0.013). Hospital stay was significantly more in feeding jejunostomy group (p<0.0001). There was no significant difference between readmission; TPN requirement and time to start oral feed. Conclusion: Feeding jejunostomy seems to be associated with increased morbidity and increased length of stay.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0068.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Climate; Elderly; Mortality; Meteorological Variables
Online: 3 August 2020 (09:56:17 CEST)
With the rising trends in elderly populations around the world, there is a growing interest in understanding how climate sensitivity is related to their thermal perception. Therefore, we analyzed the associations between mortality in the elderly due to cardiovascular (CVD) and respiratory diseases (RD) and meteorological variables, for three cities in the State of São Paulo, Brazil: Campos do Jordão, Ribeirão Preto and Santos, from 1996 to 2017. We applied the Autoregressive Model Integrated with Moving Average (ARIMA) and the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in order to evaluate statistical associations. Results showed CVD as a major cause of mortality, particularly in the cold period, when a high mortality rate is also observed due to RD. The mortality rate was higher in Campos do Jordão and lower in Santos (and intermediate values in Ribeirão Preto). Campos do Jordão results indicate an increased probability of mortality from CVD and RD due to lower temperatures. In Ribeirão Preto, the lower relative humidity may be related to the increase in CVD and RD deaths. This study emphasizes that, even among subtropical climates, there are significant differences. Therefore, this can assist decision makers in the implementation of mitigating and adaptive measures.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0672.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Aging Keywords: aging; telomeres; senescence; mortality; disease
Online: 28 July 2020 (10:07:22 CEST)
The last 20 years have seen a surge in scientific activity and promising results in the study of aging and longevity. Many researchers have focused on telomeres, which are composed of a series of TTAGGG repeat nucleotide sequences at the ends of each chromosome. Measurements of the length of these telomere strands show that they decrease in length with increasing age, leading many authors to propose that when the length of these telomere strands decreases sufficiently, the cells enter into a state of replicative senescence, eventually leading to disease and death. These ideas are supported by evidence that short telomere length is correlated with increased mortality. In this paper, we extend this idea to make an actual calculation of the predicted mortality rate caused by short telomere length induced senescence (STLIS). We derive a simple equation for the mathematical relationship between telomere length and mortality rate. Using only 3 parameters based on telomere length measurement data of Canadians, we have calculated both the magnitude and the age dependence of the mortality rate, for both men and women. We show that these calculated data are in good quantitative agreement with the actual number of Canadians that die. This agreement provides strong evidence (but not proof) that the mechanism of STLIS plays an important role in the major diseases of aging (e.g., cardiovascular disease, many cancers, and diabetes mellitus) which dominate human mortality. This result represents significant progress in our understanding the factors behind the cause of aging.
BRIEF REPORT | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0280.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Oncology And Oncogenics Keywords: coffee; stomach neoplasms; incidence; mortality
Online: 17 May 2020 (03:18:01 CEST)
Background: Coffee is the second most popular drink in the worldwide, and it has different components with antioxidant and antitumor properties. The objective of this study was to explore the relationship between coffee consumption and the incidence and mortality of stomach cancer in the main consuming countries. Methods: An observational study was performed. Dataset of coffee consumption was obtained from WorldAtlas, and incidence and mortality rates from GLOBOCAN database. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was calculated. All statistical analysis were performed using STATA software. Results: A total of 25 countries were included in the study. There was a significant linear correlation between coffee consumption kg per person per year and an estimated age-adjusted incidence (r=0.5984, p=0.0016) and mortality (r=0.5877, p=0.0020). Conclusion: Coffee consumption could potentially have beneficial effects on incidence and mortality by stomach cancer.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0161.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Pulmonary And Respiratory Medicine Keywords: COVID 19; mortality; Iran; pandemic
Online: 9 May 2020 (10:08:24 CEST)
Background: Corona virus disease was first reported in Wuhan City, Hubei province, China. Soon the corona virus disease has spread to many countries. World health organization has described the situation as Pandemic. By 12 March 2020, corona virus disease has affected 125 countries around the world. Corona virus was first confirmed in Iran on 19 February 2020. Objective: The aim of writing this small article is to determine the mortality rate of corona virus disease in different cities of Iran. This article will give readers an idea of different ways to control spread of corona virus disease in Iran. Methods: Author has collected the data of daily confirmed cases from different diagnostic centers and hospitals across the country from 19 February 2020 to 1 April 2020. Results: Mortality rate of corona virus disease is roughly 4%. Conclusions: Mortality rate could rise if COVID 19 infection is not controlled.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202302.0350.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: COVID-19; vaccination; all-cause mortality; excess mortality; causal inferences; ecological fallacy; individualistic fallacy
Online: 21 February 2023 (03:49:52 CET)
We primarily study a possible link between 2021 COVID-19 vaccination uptake in Europe and monthly 2022 excess all-cause mortality, i.e., mortality higher than before the pandemic. Analyses of 31 countries weighted by population size show that all-cause mortality during the first nine months of 2022 increased more the higher the 2021 vaccination uptake; a one percentage point increase in 2021 vaccination uptake was associated with a monthly mortality increase in 2022 by 0.105 percent (95% CI, 0.075-0.134). When controlling for alternative explanations, the association remained robust, and we discuss the result emphasizing causality as well as potential ecological fallacy. Also, the study shows that 2021 all-cause mortality was lower the higher the vaccination uptake, but this association became non-significant when controlling for alternative explanations.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202006.0281.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Area Studies Keywords: IMR( Infant Mortality rate), MMR( Maternal Mortality rate), Equity, Social Empowerment, Marginalized , Social exclusion
Online: 21 June 2020 (16:39:41 CEST)
Introduction and Background: Bangladesh as a country could prove its development potential over the past several years with its thriving economic growth and also with a significant level of positive changes made possible in its significantly important health and social indicators including MMR, IMR, Child nutrition, fertility regulation, child survival and Infectious disease prevalence. 1,2,3 The country could make a commendable contribution in achieving Global development goal (MDG) at a significant level and also aiming to continue its effort to sustain that status quo and also making progressive changes consistently to be contributory to SDG goals and indicators towards positive development.2,3 Purpose: This lyrical critic is an attempt to uphold the facts and evidences embedded in social development reality where the implementations are in constant challenge with urgency, need and continuity. Methodology: A quick and intensive desk review and web search made to capture the insights from secondary data facts, stories, evidences, news features and the findings blended with personal insights and experiences. Finally, compilation of insights and views through a laid over narrative analytics and described in a descriptive lyrical format. Purposefully ignored the figure and quantity data reflection in the write up as this write up is considered more as a social development lyric rather than a scientific write up. Conclusion: Our diversified marginalized community people are of vital importance from a social inclusion and exclusion point of view, to look into this more deeply whether they are socially, epidemiologically, statistically, economic indicator wise fall into the embracing practice of our democracy and inclusion culture of addressing the marginalized. This posed our country in a very challenging situation, a dilemma in between morality vs reality, emotion vs equity, social response vs political standpoint and so on. With a long end history of community responsive and socially sensitive works within /among our generalized poor, poverty stricken and marginalized people group, where the sustainable and ethically driven, gender sensitive social empowerment is still a far cry! The diversity in nature always claims to add on beauty, tranquility and completeness towards the sense of Equity management, but it’s very true that this diversity word has a very opposite and different connotation while it is relevant to diversity in marginalization and appears in a more critical and complex dynamics to seek solution. Therefore, the ultimate empowerment of community specially the marginalized people remain entrapped into the social development process of enduring response in embracing urgency in community care where the right response may not get right weightage into the community development priority response and also the development actors priority agenda.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202311.0601.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Waste Management And Disposal Keywords: Extension; Manure; Mortality; Management; Virtual Reality
Online: 9 November 2023 (07:31:38 CET)
This study presents virtual reality (VR) videos as an effective technique for delivering extension educational materials on manure and mortality management. Virtual reality is a technology that can enable immersive distance learning. Using VR tours can enable the public to learn manure and mortality management technologies without in-person farm visits, thus saving traveling time and money and avoiding exposure to pathogens and noxious odors in farms. As the first part of this project, 360° VR tours were created on multiple aspects of manure management, including composting, anaerobic digestion, and preliminary wastewater treatment. These videos were presented to a diverse audience of agricultural producers, extension specialists, and researchers through in-person and online extension events and the Texas Manure YouTube channel. The effectiveness of videos was evaluated using surveys, which measured the audience's awareness of the topics before and after watching VR videos. Statistical analysis revealed that the increase in awareness after watching the videos was statistically significant, with a p-value of less than 0.0001. Statistical analysis also revealed that job classification and professional experience significantly impacted the change in awareness. Researchers, extension specialists/agents, and participants with less experience in manure and mortality management experienced a greater change in awareness than agricultural producers and participants with more experience. Interest and impression of the audience on the VR videos was also evaluated. According to survey data, the majority of the audience rated these videos as an effective technique for educating the public about manure and mortality management, found the VR videos interesting, were willing to learn more content through VR videos, and were likely to recommend them to their colleagues. A statistically significant correlation could be observed between the awareness change and the effectiveness rating given to the videos by the participant.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.1321.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Surgery Keywords: colorectal cancer; incidence; mortality; screening; survival
Online: 20 October 2023 (08:31:13 CEST)
Colorectal cancer is a frequent neoplasm in western countries, mainly due to dietary and behavioral factors. Its incidence is growing in developing countries for the westernization of foods and lifestyles. An increased incidence rate is observed in patients under 45 years of age. In last years the mortality for CRC is decreased, but this trend is slowing. The mortality rate is reducing in those countries where prevention and treatments have been implemented. The survival is increased to over 65%. This trend reflects earlier detection of CRC through routine clinical examinations and screening, more accurate staging through advances in imaging, improvements in surgical techniques and advances in chemotherapy and radiation. The most important predictor of survival is the stage at diagnosis. The screening programs are able to reduce incidence and mortality rates of CRC. The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive overview of incidence, mortality and survival rate for CRC.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.0549.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Cardiac And Cardiovascular Systems Keywords: infective endocarditis; cardiac surgery; transfusion; mortality
Online: 10 October 2023 (06:16:56 CEST)
Infective endocarditis (IE) is a serious condition with a high mortality rate, even after surgery. Need for transfusion might be increased in surgery for IE. This review aims to identify the predictors for the need of transfusion in IE patients and the effect of transfusion on outcome. Only 17 manuscripts could be identified partially addressing this issue. Minimal access surgery and valve repair instead of replacement seems favorable in this respect. However, IE has opposing effects on the coagulation system with increase in bleeding and thromboembolic events. There are indications that in IE patients, transfusion need is higher but this might be compounded by the complexity of surgery and a prolonged cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) time. Since organ dysfunction is associated with IE, this comorbidity could cloud the effect of the need for transfusion on outcome. To avoid potential adverse effect of transfusion, alternative methods have been proposed such as the use of cytokine absorbers during CPB run, intraoperative cell salvage and acute normovolemic hemodilution. These methods need further study in this subgroup of patients. In the meantime, allogeneic transfusion should be kept at a minimum, using only recently stored blood, to minimize harmful effects.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.2111.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Animal Science, Veterinary Science And Zoology Keywords: colostrum; passive immunity; sheep; lamb mortality
Online: 1 August 2023 (02:26:18 CEST)
During last decades, production and consumption of small ruminant milk has been increased. As a result of it, sheep and goat farming has been developing and scientists are focused on these animal researches both clinical and feeding strategies. By the evolutionary challenges and adaptations, colostrum has a crucial role of immune complementation for litter. As a result of these challenges and adaptations neonatal life is especially more important in ruminants because of it affects their whole life and future of livestock. Passive immune transfer is the main mechanism that explained by biological evolution between dam and lamb and also it is effected by factors up to dam and up to the litter. Today importance of passive immune transfer is well known for the future of livestock economy and animal welfare. In the literature, researchers are focused on correlation between colostrum quality (especially immunoglobulin amounts) and blood serum levels of newborns. Aims of present review are to discuss datas of recent studies, point out different effecting factors in colostrum quality and passive immune transfer, enlighten and give new ideas to researchers.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.0913.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Anesthesiology And Pain Medicine Keywords: COVID-19,methaemoglobin level; transfusion; mortality
Online: 13 June 2023 (09:32:04 CEST)
Background : Our objectives were to investigate the incidence of elevated methemoglobin level among COVID-19 patients at intensive care unit. The correlation of methaemoglobinemia with mortality and some haematological parameters was also tested. Methods: The diagosis of coronavirus -19 infection was confirmed by RT-PCR. The quantitative method for determination of methemoglobin was it’s cyanide derivative by spectrophotometry. The reference range was less than 2 percent. Results: There were altogether 46 patients (11 male, 35 female) included. Their median age value was 70 y. ( 29 – 89). The methemoglobin median value was 4,3%. 15 of 46 patients died. The methemoglobin median value of departed patients was 8 % , and 2,5% was among survivors. ( P= 0,001) 19 patients were blood transfused. Their methemoglobin median was 11 % , otherwise the non transfused patients presented 2,7 % methemoglobin median. ( p= 0,001). We performed two binary logistic regression calculation, in order to judge the elevated methemoglobin level as an independent risk factor for the mortality. The predictor of methaemoglobin was 0,062 the constant -1,266 the odds ratio 1,06. The other binary logistic regression tested the fact of transfusion for the mortality. Predictor of transfusion 1,1474, constant -1,2527 odds ratio 3,15 There was no significant correlation between methemoglobin and CRP level. Discussion: The methemoglobin is not able to transport oxygen. It’s association with mortality is discussed by some papers.There are several hypothesis in the literature to explain it’s occurrence in COVID-19. The role of coronavirus proteins as oxydative agents was mentioned. The importance of enzyme defect is emphasized. The impact of reactive oxygen free radicals in inflammation is also probable. Some papers mentioned applying local anesthetics and azythromycin as a risk. The role of transfusion is obscure, because the methemoglobin can be elevated in blood conserves during storage. Conclusion: Testing the methemoglobin seems to be important, but the pathomechanism needs further research.. The traceability and standardization of different measurement methods at intensive care units is the key for defining it’s pathogenetic role.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202205.0226.v2
Online: 5 April 2023 (12:35:21 CEST)
The COVID-19 pandemic has been challenging for society, especially for those residing in long-term care facilities (LTCF). This study aimed to describe rates of infection, hospitalization, and death due to COVID-19 among older people and staff of LTCF in a state of Southeastern Brazil and identify strategies to prevent and control the disease spread. This cross-sectional study was conducted with 164 LTCF (6,017 older people). Among the studied LTCF, 48.7% confirmed COVID-19 infection in older people, resulting in 39.6% hospitalization and 32.3% death among infected. Moreover, 68.9% of LTCF confirmed COVID-19 infection in the staff, with 7.3% hospitalization and 1.2% death. Preventive measures were identified and classified as organizational, infrastructure, hygiene items and personal protective equipment, and staff training against COVID-19. These measures showed strategies and barriers experienced in the daily routine of LTCF during the pandemic. LTCF in Brazil experienced challenges similar to observed worldwide.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202205.0108.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Cardiac And Cardiovascular Systems Keywords: comorbidity; sequence; all-cause mortality; medication
Online: 9 May 2022 (07:36:42 CEST)
Introduction: The presence of multiple comorbidities increases the risk of all-cause mortality, but the effects of the comorbidity sequence before the baseline date on mortality remained unexplored. This study investigated the relationship between coronary heart disease (CHD), atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) sequence on all-cause mortality risk in type 2 diabetes mellitus. Methods: This study included patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus prescribed antidiabetic/cardiovascular medications in public hospitals of Hong Kong between January 1st, 2009 and December 31st, 2009 with follow-up until death or December 31st, 2019. Cox regression was used to identify comorbidity sequences predicting all-cause mortality in patients with different medication subgroups. Results: A total of 249291 patients (age: 66.0±12.4 years, 47.4% male) were included. At baseline, 7564, 10900 and 25589 patients had AF, HF and CHD, respectively. Over follow-up (3524±1218 days), 85870 patients died (mortality rate: 35.7 per 1000 person-years). Sulphonylurea users with CHD developed later, but insulin users with CHD developing earlier, in the disease course had lower mortality risks. Amongst insulin users with two of the three comorbidities, CHD with preceding AF (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.06, 95% CI: [2.60-3.61], p<0.001) or HF (HR: 3.84 [3.47- 4.24], p<0.001) had a higher mortality. In users of lipid-lowering agents with all three comorbidities, those with preceding AF had higher risk of mortality (AF-CHD-HF: HR: 3.22, [2.24-4.61], p<0.001; AF-HF-CHD: HR: 3.71, [2.66-5.16], p<0.001). Conclusion: The sequence of comorbidity development affects the risk of all-cause mortality to varying degrees in diabetic patients on different antidiabetic/cardiovascular medications.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202204.0292.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Dietetics And Nutrition Keywords: Breakfast consumption; mortality; coronary diseases; obesity
Online: 29 April 2022 (08:20:22 CEST)
Epidemiological studies indicate that skipping breakfast as a universal behavior, may have adverse effects on cardiovascular diseases [CVDs}and metabolic diseases. However, eating breakfast regularly, may increase satiety, thereby reducing overeating later in the day which prevents weight gain. Recent studies indicate that skipping breakfast increases the risk of obesity, metabolic syndrome, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), coronary artery disease (CAD), and cardiovascular mortality as well as all-cause mortality. However, many studies also reported that regular taking of breakfast decreases the risk of CVDs and T2DM and all-cause mortality. Previous studies reported that heavy breakfast, in particular eating western diet may increase circadian rhythm of CVDs and sudden cardiac death. It seems that those who do not eat breakfast, they tend to eat refined and sweetened products, possibly, more in the night resulting in to greater risk of CVDs and T2DM. Breakfast skipping and eating in the night, may be associated with circadian misalignment in the central and peripheral clocks, leading to oxidative stress and inflammation. Increased systemic inflammation damages the adipocytes, beta cells of pancreas, endothelial cells and smooth muscle cells as well as neurons, which may produce dysfunction in these cells resulting in to related diseases. The beneficial effects of breakfast, may also be, at least in part, due to nutrient dense foods rather than time of eating. Eating regular breakfast, in particular rich in Indo-Mediterranean foods; vegetables, whole grains, fruits, spices and nuts may be protective against circadian increase in oxidative stress in the morning, resulting in to significant decline in the risk of CVDs and T2DM.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0759.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: adherence; alcohol; morbidities; mortality; data linkage
Online: 31 March 2021 (11:23:38 CEST)
Objectives We tested the hypothesis that poor adherence is associated with a greater risk of alcohol-caused mortality and morbidities within the first year of discontinuing this medication. Materials and Methods Retrospective cohort study of 3319 individuals who received Acamprosate® in the East of Scotland in a 10-year period using a health informatics approach with record linkage of dispensing data, hospital utilization (SMR) and General Register Office of Scotland (GROS) data. Primary outcome was adherence between one to six months of initiating Acamprosate® medication. Secondary outcome was all cause morbidities and mortality. Results Of the total 3319 individuals identified, good adherence index of >80% was found in 59% of those prescribed Acamprosate® after three months and 6% after six months. There were significant linear trends of poorer adherence with increased risk of alcohol-caused mortality (HR1.2), medical morbidities especially neoplasm (HR 4.1|) and poisoning (HR 1.4) and psychiatric morbidities especially stress (HR 35.1), psychotic (HR 5.6) and neurotic disorders and directly alcohol induced conditions (7.4 HR) after adjustment for other factors within a one-year period of initiation of Acamprosate® treatment. Discussion and Conclusions Further exploratory studies using this digitalized approach should be encouraged in order to capture role of compliance to Acamprosate® and other types of medication that are known to reduce relapse into alcohol dependence and its direct relationship to mortality and morbidities in this population.
Online: 13 November 2019 (10:40:50 CET)
BACKGROUND: During the natural history, the incidence HTLV-1 related diseases were 0.5% until 10% after decades of infection. Despite relative low lethality, previous study observed that HTLV-1 infection is associated with significantly increased mortality. For example, the incidence of ATLL and HAM/TSP, co-infections with HIV and HCV, parasitic co-infection with Strongyloides stercoralis may increase morbidity and mortality. OBJECTIVE: Determine the mortality rate and its major variables as possible risk factors, analyzing the HTLV Clinic at Emilio Ribas Institute, a continuous open cohort of HTLV patients since 1997. METHODS: This cohort open cohort possesses new patients added at a rate of approximately 50 patients/year. There were 1100 HTLV-infected subjects identified by September 30th 2018. All clinical data including clinical and laboratory data, which have been updated on a regular basis over the last 22 years, were entered into a specific REDCap database. The Ethical Board of the IIER approved the protocol. RESULTS: Along 22 years of clinical care in the HTLV-out clinic, 727 HTLV-1-infected subjects and 248 HAM/TSP cases. Four-hundred sixty-eight patients of whom remaining under active follow up. The mean follow-up time of the cohort was 12 years. Twenty-seven patients died (median age of 51,5 years old). From this total, 13 was asymptomatic carriers and 14 HAM/TSP subjects, 12 of asymptomatic and seven HAM/TSP possess co-infected with HIV or/and HCV. Other seven presented HAM/TSP without co-infection, and all was female, and sepsis was the majority cases the majority of cases of sepsis were related to infection of the urinary tract (p=0.058) and to ulcers of decubitus (p=0.021), and it was associated with risk factors for mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the mortality rate for HAM-TSP patients was six percent. The mean life expectancy in Brazil is about 78 years in 2018, twenty-two years higher than HAM/TSP patients without any other coinfection. This study highlights the possibility of higher death risk among HTLV-1-infected patients and HAM/TSP subjects in Brazil, and identified some risk factors for this outcome. Also, these patients may possess higher risk for morbidity, usually urinary tract infections and decubitus scars, which could increase risk for death.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.1415.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Pulmonary And Respiratory Medicine Keywords: COVID-19; COPD; smoking; mortality; respiratory failure
Online: 21 September 2023 (07:09:02 CEST)
Background: The global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) resulted to many deaths from fulminant respiratory failure. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. There has been great concern regarding the impact of COPD on COVID-19 illness. Methods: Data from the Philippine CORONA Study were analyzed to determine the association of COPD and COVID-19 in terms of mortality, disease severity, respiratory failure, mechanical ventilation, and lengths of stay in the intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital. The influence of smoking on COVID-19 disease severity and mortality were also reviewed. Results: A total of 10,881 patients were included in the study and 156 (1.4%) patients had been diagnosed with COPD. Majority of COVID-19 patients with COPD had other existing comorbidities: hypertension, diabetes mellitus, chronic cardiac disease, and chronic kidney disease. COPD patients more commonly present with severe or critical COVID-19. COPD patients with COVID-19 were at higher risk to experience in-hospital mortality, respiratory failure, and to be admitted in the ICU. Smokers were more likely to present with higher COVID-19 severity and experience in-hospital mortality. Conclusion: Our study supports that the growing evidence that COPD among COVID-19 patients is a risk for higher mortality, more severe form of COVID-19, higher ICU admission, and higher respiratory failure needing ventilatory support. Smoking increases risk for developing severe COVID-19 and mortality.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0770.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Life Sciences Keywords: acute cholecystitis; cholecystectomy; surgery; timing; complication; mortality
Online: 12 September 2023 (11:16:46 CEST)
The definition of Early Cholecystectomy (EC) is still debatable. This paper aims to find whether the timing of EC affects outcomes. This is a multicentric prospective observational study including patients with acute calculous cholecystitis (ACC) who had cholecystectomy within ten days from the onset of symptoms. Kruskall-Wallis test, Fisher’s Exact test and Spearman rank correlation were used for statistical analysis. The patients were divided into three groups depending on the timing of the operation: 0-3 days, 4-7 days, or 8-10 days from the onset of symptoms. 1117 patients were studied over a year. The time from the onset of symptoms to EC did not affect the postoperative complications and mortality, the conversion and the reintervention rate. It was a significant risk factor for intraoperative complications (0-3 days, 2.8%; 4-7 days, 5.6%; 8-10 days, 7.9%; p=0.01) and subtotal cholecystectomies (0-3 days, 2.7%; 4-7 days, 5.6%; 8-10 days, 10.9%; p<0.001). ACC is an evolutive inflammatory process and, as the days go by, the local and systemic inflammation increases which makes surgery more complex and difficult with higher risk of intraoperative complications. We recommend performing EC for ACC as soon as possible within the first ten days of the onset of symptoms.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0026.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: seagrass, microbial loop, viral lysis, mortality rates
Online: 1 September 2023 (13:02:51 CEST)
In coastal areas around the world, seagrass meadows play a crucial ecological and economic role. A large amount of seagrass beds dominates primary production and contributes to the high secondary productivity of this ecosystem. The microbial loop (consuming bacterial biomass by grazers and using seagrass-derived detritus by bacteria) may be an important mechanism for transferring seagrass-derived organic matter to the aquatic food chain. This study aims to improve our understanding of how bacterial growth and mortality (grazing and viral lysis rates) differ in seagrass and adjacent unvegetated meadow habitats. We found that viral lysis and grazing caused similar mortality rates of bacteria in a seagrass environment during the summer. It has been found, however, that bacterial production is controlled by the availability of resources (bottom-up control) and is cycled within the bacteria-virus-DOC loop in adjacent unvegetated waters. Our study region may be affected by this shift in organic matter fate and cycling.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.2072.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Cardiac And Cardiovascular Systems Keywords: pulmonary embolism; mortality; total leukocyte counts; hemoglobin
Online: 30 August 2023 (11:02:52 CEST)
This study aimed to assess the prognostic significance of total leukocyte count (TLC) and hemoglobin (Hb) levels upon admission for patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE), considering the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) model for mortality risk. 1622 patients from a regional PE registry were included. Decision tree statistics were employed to evaluate TLC and Hb's prognostic value, both independently and in conjunction with the ESC model. Results indicated all-cause and PE-related in-hospital mortality rates of 10.7% and 6.5% respectively. Subgrouping patients based on TLC cutoff values (≤11.2, 11.2-16.84, >16.84 x10^9/L) revealed increasing all-cause mortality risks (7.0%, 11.8%, 30.2%). Incorporating Hb levels (≤126 g/L or above) further stratified the lowest risk group into two strata with all-cause mortality rates of 10.1% and 4.7%. Similar trends were observed for PE-related mortality. Notably, TLC improved risk assessment for intermediate-high risk patients within the ESC model, while Hb levels enhanced mortality risk stratification for lower risk PE patients in the ESC model for all-cause mortality. In conclusion, TLC and Hb levels upon admission can refine the ESC model's mortality risk classification for patients with acute PE, providing valuable insights for improved patient management.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.1794.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public Health And Health Services Keywords: maternal care; mortality rate; quality; services; strategies
Online: 26 July 2023 (10:41:31 CEST)
The maternal death rate remains high in South Africa despite the availability of many existing strategies to improve the quality of service. A 30% increase in maternal mortality rate was reported between 2020-2021, with Limpopo ranking fourth highest out of nine provinces. Vhembe district remained number three with a high maternal death rate. This study explored strategies to reduce the maternal death rate and improve the provision of quality maternal healthcare services in selected hospitals of Vhembe district, Limpopo province. One hospital was purposively sampled from every four municipalities. A qualitative approach using phenomenological design was employed. Twenty-eight participants were sampled using a convenience sampling method. The semi-structured interview guide was used to collect data. An audio recorder was also used until data saturation. Data saturation was reached at the 20th participant, but the researcher continued until 28 sampled participants were interviewed. Interpretative phenomenological analysis was used following the analytical stages of interpretative data analysis. The study proposal was ethically cleared by the University of Venda Ethics Committee (FHS/22/PH/08/3108). Results indicate that despite implementing strategies to improve maternal healthcare services and reduce the maternal death rate, several factors, such as lack of material resources, shortage of staff, incompetent staff, and poor infection control, affect the quality of maternal health service in Vhembe district. Limpopo Department of Health and hospital management should ensure that hospitals have all necessary resources and support healthcare professionals through in-service training to ensure the functionality of existing strategies.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.1450.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Hematology Keywords: Thrombin generation; venous thromboembolism; elderly; bleeding; mortality
Online: 21 July 2023 (12:46:36 CEST)
It is currently unknown whether thrombin generation is associated with venous thromboembolism (VTE) recurrence, major bleeding, and mortality in the elderly. Therefore, our aim was to prospectively study the association between thrombin generation and VTE recurrence, major bleeding and mortality in elderly patients with acute VTE. Consecutive patients aged ≥65years with acute VTE were followed for 2 years starting from 1 year after the index VTE. Primary outcomes were VTE recurrence, major bleeding and mortality. Thrombin generation was assessed in 565 patients 1 year after the index VTE. At this time, 59% of patients were still anticoagulated. Thrombin generation was discriminatory for VTE recurrence, but not for major bleeding and mortality in non-anticoagulated patients. Moreover, peak ratio (adjusted subhazard ratio 4.09, 95% CI, 1.12-14.92) and normalized peak ratio (adjusted subhazard ratio 2.18, 95% CI, 1.28-3.73) in presence/absence of thrombomodulin were associated with VTE recurrence, but not with major bleeding and mortality after adjustment for potential confounding factors. In elderly patients, thrombin generation was associated with VTE recurrence, but not with major bleeding and/or mortality. Therefore, our study suggests the potential usefulness of thrombin generation measurement after anticoagulation completion for VTE to help identifying among elderly patients those at higher risk of VTE recurrence.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.0599.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Animal Science, Veterinary Science And Zoology Keywords: Swine; mortality; data-wrangling; forecasting; machine-learning
Online: 10 July 2023 (10:40:52 CEST)
The performance of 5 forecasting models was investigated for predicting nursery mortality using the master table built for 3,242 groups of pigs (~ 13 million animals) and 42 variables, which concerned the pre-weaning phase of production and conditions at placement in growing sites. After training and testing each model’s performance through cross-validation, the model with the best overall prediction results was the Support Vector Machine model in terms of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE=0.406), Mean Absolute Error (MAE=0.284), and Coefficient of Determination (R2=0.731). Subsequently, the forecasting performance of the SVM model was tested on a new dataset containing 72 new groups, simulating ongoing and near real-time forecasting analysis. Despite a decrease in R2 values on the new dataset (R2=0.554), the model demonstrated high accuracy (77.78%) for predicting groups with high (5>%) or low (5<%) nursery mortality. This study demonstrated the capability of forecasting models to predict the nursery mortality of commercial groups of pigs using pre-weaning information and stocking conditions variables collected post-placement in nursery sites.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.0570.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Epidemiology And Infectious Diseases Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; waves; mortality
Online: 10 July 2023 (09:47:27 CEST)
(1) Background: Since the onset of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, seven epidemic waves have been described in Spain. Our objective was to study mortality and severity, and associated factors in our hospitalized patients; (2) Method: Retrospective cohort study was conducted on COVID-19 patients admitted to the Hospital de Fuenlabrada (Madrid, Spain) from the beginning of the pandemic until December 31, 2022; (3) Results: A total of 5,510 admissions for COVID-19 were recorded. First wave accounted for 1,823 (33%) and exhibited the highest proportion of severe patients (lowest mean oxygen saturation, 88.2%; elevated levels of CRP, IL-6, D-dimer and ferri-tin), but a below-average percentage of intubated patients (5% vs. 6.5%). Overall mortality rate was 10.3%, higher during the first wave (11.5%) and the two winter waves (third: 11.3%, sixth: 12%), although the first wave represented 39% of the total. Variables associated with mortality were age (OR 1.08,1.07-1.09), need for high-flow oxygen (OR 6.10,4.94-7.52), oncological disease (OR 1.88,1.53-2.60), dementia (OR 1.82,1.2-2.75), Charlson index (OR 1.38,1.31-1.47), and maxi-mum IL-6 levels (OR 1.001,1.000-1.001); (4) Conclusions: Variables associated with mortality in-cluded age, comorbidity, respiratory failure, and inflammation. Differences on baseline charac-teristics of patients admitted explained differences on mortality in each wave
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.0102.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Other Keywords: Red meat; Processed meat; poultry; dairy; mortality
Online: 3 July 2023 (13:43:18 CEST)
Keywords: Red meat; Processed meat; poultry; dairy; mortality
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.1430.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Pollution Keywords: Covid-19; mortality; PM2.5; air pollution; Europe
Online: 20 June 2023 (10:45:53 CEST)
Rationale: The possible effect of Particulate Matter (PM10 and PM2.5 of diameter 10 and 2.5 µm respectively) levels on Covid-19 mortality is now well established. However, time-evolution of Covid-19 mortality according to PM2.5 levels has been scarcely investigated. Aim: To understand this relationship at the European level for the period 2020 (beginning) - 2022 (end). Methods: 16 representative locations in Europe (81 million people) with heterogeneous levels of PM2.5 (µg.m-3), from low to high. PM2.5 levels were assessed by various methods, and Covid-19 mortality was reported by Johns Hopkins University. Results: The trend of Covid-19 mortality vs. PM2.5 levels varied among locations. Overall, the estimated mean value was of a 40±20% mortality increase per 1 µg.m-3 PM2.5 increase. The stronger the positive gradient of the PM peak, the stronger the positive gradient of the Covid-19 mortality. Exposure to several PM peaks during about a 2-month period was the main contributor to Covid-19 mortality increases. Conclusion: Our data confirm a temporal relation between PM2.5 exposure and Covid-19 mortality, considering a 2-month integration-time for pollution events. Number-concentrations of PM should be used in the future rather than the PM2.5 mass-concentrations (µg.m-3) with the consideration of PM composition to better explain this finding.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.0544.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Oncology And Oncogenics Keywords: cancer; meta-analysis; vitamin D; mortality; incidence
Online: 7 June 2023 (11:11:20 CEST)
It is a well-established fact that inadequate Vitamin D (Vit-D) levels have negative effects on the development and progression of malignant diseases, mainly cancer. The purpose of this paper was to elucidate the effects of Vit-D intake and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin-D (25(OH)D) levels on cancer incidence and mortality, the current evidence in this field, and the biases of this evidence using the meta-meta-analysis method. Meta-analyses focusing on Vit-D intake, serum 25(OH)D levels, and cancer risk/mortality were identified. A structured computer literature search was performed in PubMed/Medline, Web of Science (WoS), and Scopus electronic databases using predetermined keyword combinations. Primary and secondary meta-meta-analyses were carried out, combining odds ratios (ORs), risk ratios (RRs), and hazard ratios (HRs) for outcomes reported in selected meta-analyses. A total of 35 eligible meta-analyses assessing the association between Vit-D and cancer incidence and/or mortality were included in this study. In the pooled analysis, higher Vit-D intake and serum 25(OH)D levels were associated with lower cancer risk (OR = 0.93, 95% CI: 0.90-0.96, p < 0.001; OR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.72-0.89, p < 0.001, respectively) and cancer-related mortality (RR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.86-0.93, p < 0.001; RR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.58-0.78, p < 0.001, respectively). When meta-analyses whose primary reports included only randomized controlled trials were pooled, there was no significant association between Vit-D intake and cancer risk (OR = 0.99, 95% CI: 0.97-1.01, p = 0.320). In subgroup analysis, Vit-D consumption was associated with a significant decrease in colorectal and lung cancer incidence (OR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.83-0.96, p = 0.002; OR = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.83-0.94, p < 0.001, respectively). Taken together, both Vit-D intake and higher 25(OH)D levels may provide remarkable benefits in terms of cancer incidence and mortality, however, careful evaluation according to cancer types is critically important and recommended.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.0264.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Clinical Medicine Keywords: COVID 19; coagulation; viscoelastic tests; thrombosis; mortality
Online: 5 June 2023 (08:15:17 CEST)
Background and Objectives: Coagulation disorders during COVID-19 infection are associated with poor prognosis and disease severity, because two processes that interfere each other are thrombosis and inflammation. Very important issue for clinicians is timely and adequate hemostasis and inflammation monitoring in order to prevent and treat potentially lethal consequences. Materials and Methods: The study was approved by the Ethics Committee of the Clinical center Nis, Serbia. One hundered fourty two patients presented with COVID-19 ARDS were admitted to the ICU in Clinic for anesthesiology Clinical Center Nis, from 14th April 2020 to 25 th May 2020. On admission blood was collected for biochemical and coagulation testing. The data obtained was analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS v. 25, Chicago, IL, USA). Results: Among all parameters assessed, mortality was associated with higher age (p<0.05), higher factor I (p<0.05), INR (p<0.001), D-Dimer (p<0.001), ADP (p<0.001), ASPI (p<0.001), TRAP (p<0.001), PSEP (p<0.001), A5 extest (p<0.01), A10 ex test (p<0.01), A5 fib (p<0.001), A10fib (p<0.001) and MCF fib (p<0.001) values, but lower CT extest values (p<0.05). Mortality was associated with extreme values of D-Dimer above 1000 (p<0.001), ADP above 590 (p<0.001), ASPI above 800 (p<0.001), TRAP above 1500 (p<0.001) and PSEP above 1000 (p<0.05). Conclusions: The key to success in the treatment of COVID 19 infection is timely and adequate therapy and patient monitoring, which is impossible without early risk stratification and mortality prediction. Sophisticated hemostasis parameters can contribute to early risk assessment, which was initially performed only on the basis of the patient's clinical status.
BRIEF REPORT | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.2178.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Clinical Medicine Keywords: mortality; sepsis; shock; heat shock protein 27
Online: 31 May 2023 (07:15:28 CEST)
Is HSP-27 an emerging marker of good prognosis in septic shock patients – a pilot study Objective To estimate the value of serum changes of C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, presepsin, heat shock protein 27 (HSP27) and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio in assessing the prognosis in patients with septic shock (SS) treated in intensive care unit. Methods The SS was diagnosed and treated in accordance with the guidelines of the Surviving Sepsis Campaign. 37 selected adult patients with SS were included. Serum concentrations of biomarkers were measured at admission and daily for 4 consecutive days (time points T0,T1, T2, T3 and T4 respectively). The mortality rate was determined 28 days after admission. Patients were divided into survivor and non-survivor groups according to their mortality. The differences between the levels of biomarkers at the T0 and T4 time points were analyzed. Results The mean value of the SOFA score on admission was 11.7 ± 2.7, and the APACHE II scale 29.9 ± 6.85. Nine patients died. Univariate logistic analysis revealed that changes between T0 and T4 time points of presepsin, procalcytonin, and HSP27 were associated with prognosis. A multivariate Cox analysis showed that an increase in HSP27 on T4 was the only independent predictor of good prognosis in SS patients. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve for HSP27 was 0.785. Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that the mortality was lower (p=0.014) in patients who had an increase in HSP27 on T4 compared to those whose serum HSP27 did not increase on T4. Conclusions The increase of HSP27 level on the 4th day predicts favorable outcome in SS patients.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0161.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Primary Health Care Keywords: covid vaccination; excess mortality rate; control group
Online: 10 April 2023 (09:20:44 CEST)
Global research on the Covid-19 vaccine’s effectiveness is using methods that are misleading the scientific community and public opinion. There is a golden rule in medicine: to measure the effectiveness of an experimental medicine you need to have two groups. The group that will take medicine and the group that will not take medicine. You follow the health status of both groups for a few months and you will get objective results. This is the only proper methodology to verify the effectiveness of a new medicine. Articles cited from 1-5 did not use the gold rule. They develop different kinds of methodologies that all have no statistical significance. On the basis of their methodologies, they conclude that Covid-19 vaccines have a positive effect on public health. By comparing graphs of the intensity of vaccination and the rate of mortality we see that after the period of intense vaccination follows the period of higher excess mortality. Basic statistical data are confirming that Covid-19 vaccines increased the mortality rate.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202205.0188.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Epidemiology And Infectious Diseases Keywords: COVID-19; HIV; Mortality; cytokine release syndrome
Online: 13 May 2022 (09:47:23 CEST)
Introduction: Established predictors for COVID-19 related mortalities are diverse, with cytokine release syndrome (CRS), a key intermediator to the case fatalities being dominant and multi-faceted. The impact of these several risk factors on coronavirus mortality have been previously reported in several meta‐analyses limited by small sample sizes and premature data, and CRS not fully being accounted for. The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to evaluate the evidence on the risk of COVID-19 related CRS and mortality with HIV serostatus using published data, and a meta-regression to account for possible covariates. Method: Electronic databases including Google Scholar, Cochrane Library, Web of Sciences (WOS), EMBASE, Medline/PubMed, COVID-19 Research Database, and Scopus, were systematically searched till 30th February, 2022. All human studies were included irrespective of publication date or region. Twenty-two studies with a total of 19,783,097 patients detailing COVID-related mortality and eleven with a total of 2,005,274 were included. To pool the estimate, a random-effects model with risk ration as the effect measure was used. Moreover, publication bias and sensitivity analysis were evaluated followed by meta-regression. The trial was registered (CRD42021264761) on the PROSPERO register. Results: The findings were consistent in stating the contribution of HIV infection for COVID-19 related CRS and mortality. The cumulative COVID-19 related mortality and CRS was 110270 (0.6%) and 48863 (2.4%) with total events of 2010 (3.6%), 108260 (0.5%) and 837(4.6%), 48026 (2.4%) among HIV-positive and negative persons respectively. HIV infection showed an increased risk of COVID-19 related CRS and mortality [RR= 1.48, 95% CI (1.16, 1.88) (P=0.002)] and [RR =1.19, 95% CI (1.02 -1.39) (P=0.00001)] respectively, both with substantial heterogeneity (I2 > 80%). The true effects size in 95% of all the comparable populations fell between 0.64 to 2.22 and 0.67 to 3.29 for mortality and CRS respectively. MC studies and COVID-19 mortality with HIV infection showed a significant association [RR = 1.305, 95% CI (1.092 -1.559) (P = 0.003)], similar to studies conducted in America (RR = 1.422, 95% CI 1.233–1.639) and South Africa (RR = 1.123, 95% CI 1.052–1.198). HIV infection showed a risk for ICU admission [(P=0.00001) (I² = 0%)] and mechanical ventilation [(P=0.04) (I² = 0%)] as parameters of CRS. Furthermore, risk of COVID-19 related CRS is influenced by the year a study was conducted (R² = 0.55) and the region (R² = 0.11) same for mortality (R² = 0.60). The variance proportion explained by covariates was significant for CRS (I² = 86.5%, Q = 73.99, df = 10, P = 0.0000) (R² = 0.78) and mortality (I² = 87.5%, Q = 168.02, df = 21, p = 0.0000) (R² = 0.67). Conclusion: Our updated meta-analysis indicated that HIV infection was significantly associated with an increased risk for both COVID-19 – CRS and mortality, which might be modulated by regions, study setting and year. Risk for ICU admission and mechanical ventilation are the key indicators of CRS. We believe the updated data further anchoring CRS will contribute to more substantiation of the findings reported by similar earlier studies (Dong et al., 2021; K. W. Lee et al., 2021; Massarvva, 2021; Mellor et al., 2021; Ssentongo et al., 2021)
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Neuroscience And Neurology Keywords: Aged; Alanine Transaminase; Brain infarction; Frailty; Mortality
Online: 19 March 2021 (08:09:52 CET)
(1) Background: Extremely low alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels are be-ing recognized as a risk factor of increasing mortality in the elderly in relation to frailty. In the elderly, both frailty and ischemic stroke are not only common, but also associated with mortality. This study aimed to investigate whether extremely low ALT levels increase the all-cause mortality rate in the elderly after ischemic stroke. (2) Methods: A retrospective review was performed on 901 patients with ischemic stroke admitted to a university-affiliated hospital between February 2014 and April 2019. The multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis was performed to determine whether extremely low ALT lev-els are an independent risk factor of mortality in elderly patients after ischem-ic stroke. (3) Results: This study enrolled 323 older adults (age ≥65 years) who were first diagnosed with ischemic stroke. The mean age of the participants was 76.5 ± 6.6 years, mean survival time was 37.1 ± 20.4 months, and the num-ber of deaths was 96 (29.7%). The multivariate Cox proportional hazard analy-sis revealed that the risk factors for all-cause mortality in the elderly after is-chemic stroke were age, initial National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, serum creatinine, and extremely low ALT level (<10 U/L) at the time of diag-nosis (adjusted hazard ratio: 3.243, 95% confidence interval: 1.945–5.408; P < 0.001) (4) Conclusions: Extremely low ALT level at the time of diagnosis (<10 U/L) is an independent risk factor that increases the mortality rate in the el-derly after ischemic stroke.
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: Breastfeeding; Infants; Bangladesh; Morbidity; Adolescent mothers; Mortality
Online: 25 January 2021 (10:04:09 CET)
Optimal breastfeeding practices among mothers have been proven to have health and economic benefits, but evidence on breastfeeding practices among adolescent mothers in Bangladesh is limited. Hence, this study aims to estimate breastfeeding indicators and factors associated with selected feeding practices. The sample included 2554 children aged 0-23 months of adolescent mothers aged 12-19 years from four Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys collected between 2004 and 2014. Breastfeeding indicators were estimated using World Health Organization indicators. Selected feeding indicators were examined against potential confounding factors using univariate and multivariate analyses. Only 42.2% of adolescent mothers initiated breastfeeding within the first hour of birth, 53% exclusively breastfed their infants, predominant breastfeeding was 17.3%, and 15.7% bottle-fed their children. Parity (2-3 children), older infants and adolescent mothers who made postnatal check-up after two days were associated with increased exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) rates. Adolescent mothers aged 12-18 years and who watched television were less likely to delay breastfeeding initiation within the first hour of birth. Adolescent mothers who delivered at home (adjusted OR=2.63, 95% CI:1.86, 3.74) and made postnatal check-up after two days (adjusted OR=1.67, 95% CI: 1.21, 2.30) were significantly more likely to delay initiation breastfeeding within the first hour of birth. Younger infants, adolescent mothers living in Barisal region and who listened to radio reported increased odds of predominant breastfeeding and increased odds for bottle-feeding included male infants, an infant aged 0-5 months, Adolescent mothers who had eight or more antenatal clinic visits and richest wealth quintiles. In order for Bangladesh to meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 2 and 3 by 2030, breastfeeding promotion programmes should discourage bottle-feeding among adolescent mothers from richest households and promote early initiation of breastfeeding especially among adolescent mothers who delivered at home and had late postnatal check-up after delivery
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0599.v2
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: COVID-19; mortality; socioeconomic disparity; disadvantaged groups
Online: 15 January 2021 (12:09:12 CET)
Disadvantaged groups around the world have suffered and endured higher mortality during the current COVID-19 pandemic. This contrast disparity suggests that socioeconomic and health-related factors may drive inequality in disease outcome. To identify these factors correlated with COVID-19 outcome, country aggregate data provided by the Lancet COVID-19 Commission subjected to correlation analysis. Socioeconomic and health-related variables were used to predict mortality in the top 5 most affected countries using ridge regression and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models. Our data reveal that predictors related to demographics and social disadvantage correlate with COVID-19 mortality per million and that XGBoost performed better than ridge regression. Taken together, our findings suggest that the health consequence of the current pandemic is not just confined to indiscriminate impact of a viral infection but that these preventable effects are amplified based on pre-existing health and socioeconomic inequalities.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202101.0218.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Algebra And Number Theory Keywords: COVID-19; mortality; spatial analysis; hexbin map
Online: 12 January 2021 (11:07:47 CET)
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused ~ 2 million fatalities. Significant progress has been made in advancing our understanding of the disease process, one of the unanswered questions, however, is the anomaly in the case/mortality ratio with Mexico as a clear example. Herein, this anomaly is explored by spatial analysis and whether mortality varies locally according to local factors. To address this, hexagonal cartogram maps (hexbin) used to spatially map COVID-19 mortality and visualise association with patient-level data on demographics and pre-existing health conditions. This was further interrogated at local Mexico City level by choropleth mapping. Our data show that the use of hexagonal cartograms is a better approach for spatial mapping of COVID-19 data in Mexico as it addresses bias in area size and population. We report sex/age-related spatial relationship with mortality amongst the Mexican states and a trend between health conditions and mortality at the state level. Within Mexico City, there is a clear south, north divide with higher mortality in the northern municipalities. Deceased patients in these northern municipalities have the highest pre-existing health conditions. Taken together, this study provides an improved presentation of COVID-19 mapping in Mexico and demonstrates spatial divergence of the mortality in Mexico.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202011.0003.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: Heart Failure; Acute Kidney Injury; Prognosis; Mortality.
Online: 2 November 2020 (08:09:49 CET)
Introduction: Decompensated heart failure (HF) is a complex and debilitating syndrome, which constitutes a severe emergency condition with high morbidity and mortality. The kidneys play fundamental roles in the pathophysiology of HF and, in the context of decompensations, acute kidney injury (AKI) has a bilateral cause-and-effect relationship, which can significantly worsen prognosis. However, the interaction between AKI and decompensated HF is poorly understood. Objective: This study aimed to assess the occurrence of AKI in patients hospitalized due to decompensated HF and to analyze its prognostic impact during hospitalization. Methods: Prospective single-center observational study that included patients hospitalized due to decompensated HF in a tertiary-level teaching hospital, conducted between July 2017 and January 2020. Patients who developed AKI during hospitalization were compared with those who did not develop it, until hospital discharge or death. AKI was defined as a serum creatinine increase greater than or equal to 0.3 mg/dl in 48 hours, a 1.5-fold increase in baseline creatinine in seven days or urinary volume <0.5 ml/kg/h during six hours, according to the Acute Kidney Injury Network (AKIN) criteria. The endpoints analyzed were death, need for invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and length of hospital stay. The Wilcoxon, Mann-Whitney and unpaired student t tests were used. Results: Ninety-nine patients were included, with a mean age of 65.4 ± 14 years, of which 47 (47.5%) were male and 52 (52.5%) were female. Reduced ejection fraction was observed in 77.8% of patients, whilst 22.2% had a diagnosis of HF with preserved EF. The decompensation clinical classifications were: dry and warm = 7 (7.1%), wet and warm = 72 (72.7%), wet and cold = 15 (15.1%) and dry and cold = 5 (5.1%). The average left ventricular ejection fraction was 38.3% ± 15. AKI ocurred in 22 patients (22.2%). Comparison between patients who evolved with and without AKI showed higher mortality (36.4% vs 10.4%, p = 0.004) and the need for IMV (54.5% vs 13%, p = 0.0001) in the first group. There was no significant difference regarding the length of in-hospital stay (22.9 ± 19 vs 18.8 ± 16 days, p = 0.26). Conclusions: The occurrence of AKI was frequent in patients with decompensated HF requiring hospitalization, affecting approximately one out of five patients. This complication was significantly associated with increased mortality and the need for IMV during hospitalization.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202010.0021.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: Pioglitazone; DPP4-inhibitor; ESRD; Cardiovascular outcome; Mortality
Online: 1 October 2020 (15:41:50 CEST)
While pioglitazone reduces insulin resistance and hepatic gluconeogenesis effectively in patients with T2DM, these benefits remained controversial in patients with ESRD. We compared MACCEs and mortality (overall, infection-related, and MACCE-related) of pioglitazone to that of DPP4-inhibitors in patients with T2DM and ESRD. From Taiwan’s national health insurance database, 647 pioglitazone users and 6080 DPP4-inhibitors users between April 1st, 2006 and December 31th, 2016 were followed from the 91th date after the ESRD certification till study outcomes, independently; withdraw from the NHI program, death, or Dec. 31th, 2017. After weighting, risks of MACCEs (10.48% vs 12.62% per person-years, [HR]: 0.85, 95% [CI]: 0.729–0.985) and all-cause mortality (12.86% vs 13.22% per person-years, [HR]: 0.88, 95% [CI]: 0.771–0.995) are significantly lower in pioglitazone group. Subgroup analysis found lower MACCEs risk in the pioglitazone users without insulin therapy (6.44% vs 10.04% [HR]: 0.59, 95% [CI]: 0.42–0.82) and lower MACCEs related death (2.76% vs 3.84% [HR]: 0.61, 95% [CI]: 0.40–0.95) in the pioglitazone group with dyslipidemia, when comparing with DPP4-inhibitors users. Pioglitazone is associated with lower all-cause mortality and MACCEs in diabetic patients with ESRD, compared to DPP4-inhibitors. These benefits were further significant in the non-insulin users and patients with dyslipidemia.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0487.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; Phylogenetics; mortality
Online: 21 September 2020 (03:35:15 CEST)
The age-related mortality and morbidity risk of COVID-19 has been considered speculative without enough scientific evidence. This study aimed to collect more evidence on the association between patient age and risk of severe disease state and/or mortality from SARS-CoV-2 infection. Genomic dataset along with metadata (3608 samples) retrieved from GISAID from different geographical regions were grouped into 10 age groups (0-10, 11-20, 21-30, 31-40, 41-50, 51-60, 61-70, 71-80, 81-90, 91-100 years) as well as high-risk or low-risk according to patient clinical status. Genomic sequences were aligned and analyzed using MAFFT and FASTTREE to build a phylogenetic tree in order to identify age-risk associations based on phylogenetic clustering. Case fatality rates (CFR), as well as the Odds ratio (OR) for high-risk outcomes, were calculated for different age groups. Results revealed that individuals aged between 25-50 years have the best immune response to the infection. On the other hand, disease fatality was higher in patients aging above 50 years. We created an application to calculate the OR of being at high risk given a certain age threshold from GISAID datasets. OR values increased between ages 1-10 years (1.271) and 11-20 years (1.313) but reduced at age range 21-30 years (1.290) and increased again for 61-70 years (2.465). CFR calculated for each of the age groups had peak values at 90-100 years (26.8%) and the lowest at 0-10 years (0%). The CFR for ages above 50 years was about twice greater (11.6%-26.8%) than that for ages below (0-6.6%). The phylogenetic analysis revealed that the majority of samples obtained from India showed low-risk among different age groups and were defined as clade GH. Another cluster from Singapore visualization showed unfavorable patient outcome across several age groups and were classified under clade O. To conclude, this study analyses showed a variety of age-risk associations. As scientists from different countries upload more genomes to globally shared databases, more evidence will reinforce mortality risk associations in COVID-19 patients.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0356.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Gastroenterology And Hepatology Keywords: SSI; MORBIDITY; MORTALITY; GASTROINTESTINAL; HPB; HOSPITAL STAY
Online: 16 September 2020 (08:38:38 CEST)
Aims: Primary AIM of the study was to evaluate effect of prolonged hospital stay on Surgical site infections We also evaluated effect of prolonged hospital stay on overall morbidity in Gastrointestinal and Hepatobiliary Surgery as secondary outcome. Methods: We retrospectively analysed all the patients who underwent gastrointestinal and hepatobiliary surgery between April 2017 to March 2020. On our analysis we found mean hospital stay in patient who did not develop SSI and/or morbidity was 4 days (Total hospital stay) vs 6 days who developed morbidity (hospital stay before diagnosis of SSI or diagnosis or morbid event). Based on this to avoid selection bias, we did 1:1 propensity score analysis between patients who had 4 or less than hospital stay vs patients who had 5 or more hospital stay before diagnosis of surgical site infection and/or morbid event. We took all the preoperative and intraoperative factors like Age, sex, malignant disease, ASA score, CDC grade of surgery, open or laparoscopic surgery, HPB surgeries, colorectal surgeries, Upper Gastrointestinal surgeries and small intestinal surgeries as covariates. We used nearest neighbor matching protocol with a calipher of 0.2. Cases were not reusable after matching. Statistical analysis was done using SPSS version 23. Results: We included 348 patients operated between April 2017 and March 2020 in our analysis. After 1:1 propensity score matching 58 patients included in study arm (prevent hospital stay more than 4 days) and 56 patients in control arm. Both groups were comparable with regard to Age, Sex, Surgery for malignant disease, ASA score, CDC grade of surgery, HPB surgeries, Small intestinal surgeries, Colorectal surgeries, upper gastrointestinal surgeries, intraoperative blood product requirement, intraoperative hypotension or any other event, operative time. Prolonged hospital stay (> 4 days) was significantly associated with surgical site infections (p<0.0001), morbidity (p=0.001). Open surgeries were associated with prolonged hospital stay. (p=0.032). Conclusion: Prolonged Hospital stay is associated with increase surgical site infection and morbidity in Gastrointestinal and Hepatobiliary Surgery.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0143.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Health Policy And Services Keywords: chronic kidney disease; low socioeconomic status; mortality
Online: 6 August 2020 (09:46:30 CEST)
Background: To examine the association between income levels and mortality rates in patients with chronic kidney disease. Methods: We analyzed data obtained from 3,172 patients with chronic kidney disease obtained from the Korean National Health Insurance claims database (2003–2009). Each patient was monitored until December 2010 or until death, whichever came first. Individual income was estimated from the national health insurance premium. Information on mortality was obtained from the Korean National Statistical Office. Cox proportional hazard models were used to compare mortality rates between different income groups after adjusting for possible confounding risk factors. Results: A low income was significantly associated with a high mortality rate after adjusting for covariates (adjusted HR 1.298 [1.082–1.556]). In addition, dialysis patients who had low incomes were more likely to have higher mortality rates compared to those in dialysis patients who had high incomes (adjusted HR 1.528 [1.122–2.082]). Conclusion: The findings of this study indicate that chronic kidney disease patients with low incomes have the highest mortality risk. Promotion of targeted policies and priority health services for patients with low incomes may help reduce the mortality rate in this vulnerable group.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0061.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Surgery Keywords: Mortality; Hepatobiliary: Surgery; Surgical critical care; Complications
Online: 3 August 2020 (01:04:55 CEST)
Aims and Objectives: Our primary aim was to study association between nonsurgical techniques related complications and mortality and our secondary aim was to determine factors responsible for non surgical technique related complications. Material and Methods: All gastrointestinal and hepatobiliary procedures performed in last 3 years have been evaluated retrospectively. Nonsurgical procedure related postoperative complications were defined as perioperative complications nonrelated to surgical procedures or techniques and related to patients’ physiological health or comorbidities. To avoid selection bias in attempt to evaluate effect of non-surgical procedural related complication on mortality, we did 1:1 propensity score matching analysis with nonsurgical technique related complications as dependent factor. Propensity scores were calculated using logistic regression. Pre operative confounding factors like age, sex, American society of Anesthesia score (ASA), emergency surgery, type of surgeries like HPB surgeries, Upper gastrointestinal surgeries, small bowel surgeries, colorectal surgeries, hernia surgeries, open or laparoscopic surgeries were entered in model as covariates. We used nearest neighbor matching protocol with a calipher of 0.2. Cases were not reusable after matching. Statistical analysis was done using SPSS version 23. Results: Total 348 patients underwent various abdominal surgeries (gastrointestinal and hepatobiliary) in our department from April 2017 to March 2020. Total 24 patients developed nonsurgical technique related complications. Before Propensity score matching nonsurgical technique related complications were significantly higher in Upper Gastrointestinal surgeries (gastric and esophageal), emergency surgeries, Open surgeries, in patients who developed intraoperative hypotension, patients operated for malignancies, patients with higher ASA grades, patients in whom more blood products were used and patient who had more operative time. ASA scores independently predicted nonsurgical technique related complications. [P=0.001. Odds Ratio 3.955 (95% C.I.) 1.774-8.813)]. After Matching 24 patients patients were included in nonsurgical complication related complication group and they were compared with 23 matched controls. After matching also nonsurgical procedural related complications were significantly associated with mortality. (p< 0.0001). No intraoperative factors like intraoperative hypotension, blood product requirement, operative time predicted non-surgical technique related complication. Surgery related complications were not associated with mortality after matching. Conclusion: Nonsurgical technique related complications are associated with significant increase risk of mortality.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0308.v5
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Epidemiology And Infectious Diseases Keywords: Covid-19; SARS-Cov-2; Mortality rate; Cancer; Cardiovascular disease; Respiratory disease; Diabetes; Kidney diseases; April; May
Online: 3 June 2020 (05:49:12 CEST)
Covid-19 has given a halt to all the activities in the world. Europe was most affected, followed by the United States of America. It has taken more than 350000 lives until now. In this study, we have assessed the severity of Covid-19 by analyzing the mortality rate of Covid-19 and other chronic diseases. The Covid-19 data and “death rate” data caused by other diseases were downloaded from the world health organization (WHO) website. A normalized method was used to see the mortality rate of Covid-19 in comparison to other diseases. The deaths caused by Covid-19 in April 2020 have overtaken the average number of deaths caused by Cancer, Cardiovascular diseases, and other diseases in Belgium, the United Kingdom (UK), Spain, France, and Ireland. Covid-19 was found to be strongly correlated with non-communicable respiratory diseases and Cancer with correlation coefficients 0.73 and 0.67 respectively. The severity of Covid-19 in the United States of America (USA) was moderate. The severity of Covid-19 in Asian countries was found to be low. Europe showed the highest diversity in the mortality rate of Covid-19. On average, except for a few European countries, Cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and non-communicable respiratory diseases were still more lethal and caused more deaths than Covid-19.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202002.0154.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Pediatrics, Perinatology And Child Health Keywords: pediatric drug poisoning; emergency department; corrosive; mortality
Online: 11 February 2020 (15:57:47 CET)
Background: Poisoning constitutes an important part of morbidity and mortality among environmental emergencies that can be prevented, frequent in childhood, requiring rapid diagnosis and treatment. This study aimed was to examine the epidemiological, clinical and therapeutic characteristics of drug and corrosive poisonings in terms of children. Materials and Methods: Between January 2010 and December 2018, 1678 patients between the ages of 1-16 who applied to the emergency department with drug and corrosive poisoning were included in the study. The patients were divided into three groups as 1-5, 6-11 and over 12 years of age, and the substances with known pharmacological agents were divided into 10 groups. The Zargar Classification (7) was used to determine the degree of damage caused by corrosive substances in the esophagus. Results: The mean age of the patients was 8.32 ± 3.23 years (1-15 years). The girl/boy ratio of the cases was 1.18 / 1 and 54.3% were girls. 18.9% of the cases were under five years of age, 61% were between 6-11 years and 20% were older than 12 years. 94.6% of the patients were poisoned by drugs and 5.4% of them were poisoned due to non-drug reasons. Accidental poisoning was most commonly seen in children aged 6-11 and suicides were seen in children older than 12 years. It was found that 62.2% of the poisonings were accidental and 37.8% were suicidal. The most common causes of poisoning were analgesics and paracetamol exposure as a pharmacological agent. Mortality was found to be most common in 1-5 years age group and accidental poisonings. Accidental poisoning was common in girls and suicidal poisoning was common in boys. Grade 3 damage was found endoscopically in all of the mortalities due to corrosive substances. Conclusion: It was found that accidental poisoning was observed in children under five years of age, suicides were observed in children older than 12 years and the most important cause of mortality was due to corrosive substances. Cause-specific rapid diagnosis and treatment will contribute to the reduction of morbidity and mortality.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.1139.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Health Policy And Services Keywords: Hepatitis C; Elimination; Global Burden of Disease; Mortality
Online: 18 October 2023 (17:35:15 CEST)
This study assesses the feasibility of hepatitis B and C elimination, using an analysis of trends of epidemiology data (1990-2019) from the global burden of disease. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify significant changing points in trends of Age-standardizes Prevalence Rate (ASPR) and Age-standardizes Mortality Rate (ASMR) and to estimate the annual percentage changes (APC) and the average annual percentage changes (AAPC) for the period. Sociodemographic Index (SDI) was used to analyze trends between countries. The total percentage change of the ASPR (2019/1990) was -31.4% and -12.8% for HBV and HCV worldwide respectively, the rate ratio (HBV/HCV) was 2.5. Mortality has decreased for HBV but not for HCV. The total percentage change for the ASMR (2019/1990) was -26.7% and 10.0%, for HBV and HCV respectively. While ASMR of HBV decreased, HCV increased during this period. The percentage change in ASMR of HBV was highest in countries with high-middle SDI and lowest in countries with high SDI. For HCV, the percentage change in ASMR was highest in countries with High SDI (increase) and only in countries with low SDI decreased. The global HBV and HCV rates have fallen with different AAPC associated with the SDI. Despite the advances, there is still a long way forward to achieve the 2030 elimination goals. An important challenge is related to finding a way to speed up the yearly rate at which the decline is happening.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.1522.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Medicine And Pharmacology Keywords: Atenolol; mortality; Asians; chronic progressive disease; cardiovascular disease
Online: 22 September 2023 (04:36:12 CEST)
Background: The current review was conducted to determine the effectiveness of atenolol on all-cause mortality rate among Asian patients with chronic progressive diseases, mainly diabetes mellitus, primary hypertension, and coronary artery disease. Methods: We searched the COCHRANE, MEDLINE, TRIP, and EMBASE databases for published articles up to 31 March 2023. Studies that compared all-cause mortality rates among Asian patients who were on atenolol or other medications were included. Results: The review included 79603 Asian patients from three cohort studies. Out of the studied patients, 36046 were atenolol users and 43557 were non-atenolol users. The review revealed that atenolol users recorded lower all-cause mortality rates compared to non-users with a significant difference (OR= 0.57, CI= 0.44-0.75, P<0.001). The pooled estimate of the all-cause mortality rate was also lower among atenolol users (7.02%) compared to metoprolol tartrate users (13.15%) with a significant difference (OR= 0.50, CI= 0.47-0.53, p < 0.0001). Although the included studies were categorized as having a low risk of bias for most of the studied domains, significant heterogeneity was recorded across these studies (I2 =88%, P=0.001). Conclusion: This review found that atenolol when compared to a control or metoprolol tartrate, has a significant effect in reducing the all-cause mortality rate among Asian patients with chronic progressive disease.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.2040.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Gastroenterology And Hepatology Keywords: dual antiplatelet therapy; upper gastrointestinal tract; bleeding; mortality
Online: 30 August 2023 (07:19:06 CEST)
Background: Patients undergoing dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) may experience recurrent gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB). We investigated the clinical characteristics and risk factors for recurrent non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) in patients who had experienced NVUGIB during receiving DAPT. Methods: We enrolled patients diagnosed with NVUGIB during receiving DAPT between 2006 and 2020. Definite bleeding was confirmed by esophagogastroduodenoscopy in all NVUGIB patients. Results: A total of 124 patients were diagnosed with NVUGIB during receiving DAPT. Male was predominant (n = 103, 83.1%), bleeding mostly from the stomach (n = 94, 75.8%) and peptic ulcers (n = 72, 58.1%). After successful hemostasis of NVUGIB, 36 patients (29.0%) experienced at least one episode of recurrent upper GIB, 19 patients (15.3%) died, and 7 (5.6%) patients had a bleeding-related death. Multivariate analysis showed that age was a significant factor for re-bleeding (odds ratio [OR],1.050; 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.001-1.102, P-value:0.047), all-cause mortality (OR,1.096; 95% CI:1.020-1.178, P=0.013), and re-bleeding related mortality (OR,1.187; 95% CI:1.032-1.364, P-value:0.016). In Kaplan-Meier analysis, the cumulative probabilities of re-bleeding, death, and bleeding-related death were significantly higher in patients aged 70 and older (P=0.008, <0.001, and 0.009, respectively). Conclusion: Clinicians should be cautious about re-bleeding and mortality when elderly patients who experienced NVUGIB during receiving DAPT.Keywords: dual antiplatelet therapy; upper gastrointestinal tract; bleeding; mortality
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.1778.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Life Sciences Keywords: SARS-CoV2; endothelium; ADAMTS13: von Willebrand factor; mortality
Online: 25 August 2023 (08:31:29 CEST)
Background: Plasma levels of von Willebrand factor (VWF) are significantly elevated in patients with COVID-19. However, the dynamic changes and prognostic value of this biomarker in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 are not determined. Methods: 124 patients infected with SARS-CoV2 were prospectively recruited for the study. Serial blood samples were obtained at the time of admission (D1), 3-4 days following standard of care treatments (D2), and 1-2 days prior to discharge or death (D3). Plasma VWF antigen, ADAMTS13 antigen and activity, as well as the ratio of VWF/ADAMTS13 were determined, followed by statistical analyses. Results:While admission plasma levels of VWF in COVID-19 patients were significantly elevated, no statistical significance was detected among patients of different disease severity. Plasma ADAMTS13 activity, but not its antigen levels, were significantly lower in patients with severe or critical COVID-19 compared with other groups. Interestingly, the ratios of plasma VWF antigen to ADAMTS13 antigen were significantly higher in patients with severe or critical COVID-19 than in those with mild to moderate disease. More importantly, plasma levels of VWF and VWF/ADAMTS13 ratios were persistently elevated in patients with COVID-19 during hospitalization. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard regression analysis revealed that an increased plasma VWF or ratio of VWF/ADAMTS13 at D2 and D3 associated with an increased mortality rate. Conclusions: Persistent endotheliopathy, marked by an elevated level of plasma VWF or an increased VWF/ADAMTS13 ratio, is present in all hospitalized patients following SARS-CoV2 infection and strongly associated with mortality.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.1262.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Cardiac And Cardiovascular Systems Keywords: atrial fibrillation; gender; electrical cardioversion; heart failure; mortality
Online: 17 August 2023 (07:15:22 CEST)
Background: There is limited data on gender-based differences in atrial fibrillation (AF) treatment and prognosis. Our aim was to examine gender-related differences in medical attention in emergency department (ED) and follow-up (FU) among patients diagnosed with an AF episode and to determine whether there are gender-related differences in clinical characteristics, therapeutic strategies and long-term adverse events in this population. Methods: We performed a retrospective observational study of patients who presented to a tertiary hospital ER for AF from 2010-2015, with a minimum FU of one year. Data on medical attention received, mortality and other adverse outcomes were collected and analyzed. Results: Among the 2 013 patients selected, 1232 (60%) was female. Women were less likely than men to be evaluated by a cardiologist during the ED visit (11.5% vs. 16.6%, p=0.001) and were less likely to be admitted (5.9% vs. 9.5%, p<0.05). Electrical cardioversion was performed more frequently in men, both during the first episode (3.4% vs. 1.2%, p=0.001) and during FU (15.9% vs. 10.6%, p<0.001), in spite of a lower AF recurrence rate in women (9.9% vs 18.1%). During FU, women had more hospitalizations for heart failure (26.2% vs. 16.1%, p<0.001). Conclusions: In patients with AF, although no gender differences in mortality, there were significant differences in clinical outcomes, medical attention received, and therapeutic strategies. Women underwent fewer attempts at cardioversion, had a lower probability of being evaluated by cardiologists and showed a higher probability of hospitalization for heart failure. Being alert to these iniquities should facilitate to adopt measures to correct them.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202212.0381.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Epidemiology And Infectious Diseases Keywords: Epidemiology; melioidosis; infectious disease; mortality; risk factors; transmission
Online: 21 December 2022 (03:42:32 CET)
Melioidosis, or Whitmore's disease, is an infectious disease initiated by a bacteria known as Burkholderia pseudomallei. This bacteria is commonly found in contaminated soil and water. In Malaysia, the mortality from melioidosis infection was reported to be higher than in other infectious diseases. The research on melioidosis is still limited in Malaysia but slightly increasing. The article's objective was to seek all the melioidosis research related to mortality in Malaysia. The information from the selected papers was then abstracted into two sections; Section 1: Review of literature and Section 2: Findings on mortality from melioidosis in Malaysia. In Section 1, the information on transmission and clinical features of melioidosis, demographic, severity of melioidosis, a clinical signs of melioidosis, diagnosis of melioidosis, management of melioidosis, the economic burden of melioidosis, and incidence of mortality from melioidosis were discussed in this paper. Meanwhile, in Section 2, the findings on mortality of melioidosis in Malaysia were discussed according to eight published articles. It is important to manage patients with melioidosis with appropriate treatment and management to reduce severe complications, high fatality rate, and relapse. More published research on melioidosis will provide input to the clinicians on a more detailed understanding of how to improve the diagnosis of melioidosis and the prognosis factors of this disease.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202210.0321.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public Health And Health Services Keywords: COVID-19; nursing home; geriatric; incidence; mortality; epidemiology
Online: 21 October 2022 (07:16:52 CEST)
Objectives: To analyze cumulative incidence and mortality by COVID-19 in the different types of nursing homes, in the first and second wave.Methods: Data source: Transparency portal of the Generalitat de Catalunya, official COVID-19 register of all Catalan nursing homes (from March to December 10, 2020). Variables: Affectation of disease and mortality by COVID-19 in geriatric centers in Catalonia, stratified by size of center and type of management. Univariate, bivariate and multivariate linear regression analysis, IBMTMSPSS® v.20.Results:N = 1,057 residences (63,682 beds, average = 60.48). 52% have <50 beds, 42.8% between 50-150 beds, and 5%> 150 beds. COVID-19: Cumulative incidence: 21,370 (confirmed + suspicious); mortality: 5,010 (confirmed + suspicious).233 residences did not register COVID-19 patients (22%) and 636 did not register COVID-19 deaths (60.2%).According to the type of supplier, the lowest incidence of COVID-19 was in non-accredited (36.2% without cases), then concerted / collaborators (19.3%) and own of the Generalitat de Catalunya (7.9 %, p = 0.000). The centers with the fewest deaths were the non-accredited (78% without deaths), followed by contracted / collaborators (56.8%) and those of the Generalitat de Catalunya (41.3%, p = 0.000).Depending on the size, no COVID-19 patients were registered: 168 centers <50 beds (30.5%); 64 of the 50-150 beds (14.2%); and 1 of the> 150 beds (1.9%) (p = 0.000). 395 of the <50 beds did not register deaths due to COVID-19 (71.8%), 232 of the 50-150 beds (51.3%), and 9 of the> 150 beds (17%) (p = 0.000).Discussion:Of the 1,057 centers analyzed, 22% did not register cases and in 60% there were no deaths from COVID-19.Residences without concert / collaboration with the Generalitat and with fewer beds showed a lower cumulative incidence and mortality due to COVID-19 during the first wave.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0582.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: under-five; mortality; demographic health survey data; Ethiopia
Online: 24 May 2021 (15:12:13 CEST)
Introduction: Over decades, much have been said and done regarding under-five mortality in Ethiopia. The country has been following the lead of sustainable development goals and UNICEF with its transformation plan targets. However, unless the efforts supported by status assessing studies, it might be difficult for the country to progress. Thus, the current study was directed to identify the prevalence and associated factors of under-five mortality in 2019. Methods: According to the study criteria, we extract and cleaned data in STATA v. 15.0. The data then weighted as per the sampling weight, primary sampling unit, and strata before analyzing in STATA 15.0. Data management consisted of descriptive (mean, standard deviation, and proportion or percent) and association statistics. We deliberated binary logistic regression for this analysis and we checked each variable at 0.25 p-values to include in the model. The final p-value to declare association was p <0.05 and AOR with 95% CI was also applied to describe the results. The data source was the Ethiopian Mini Demographic Health Survey (EMDHS) 2019. EMDHS collected the data from 8,885 in a face-to-face manner with a 99% response rate. Results: From 5,527 numbers of weighted women with under-five analysed in this study, the proportion of under-five mortality was 277.23(5.02%). Factors like 2nd birth order 0.52(0.35, 0.79), 3rd-4th 0.49(0.28, 0.84), 1-2 ANC visits 0.24(0.12, 0.49, ANC visit three’ 0.14(0.07, 0.28), ANC visit four and above 0.22(0.14, 0.36), in marriage mother 0.43(0.19, 0.96), ‘1-2 under-five children 0.02(0.011, 0.03), and greater than three under-five children 0.007(0.0007, 0.004) were all negatively associated with under-five mortality rate. Conclusion: To obtain the exalted outcome out of this study, the government might need to increase antenatal care, women education, institutional delivery, and the modern contraceptive methods use through enhanced community mobilization, health education using community health workers, increasing access to essential cares of mothers and children, and the policy commitment for the issues related to family size, birth order, and birth interval.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0040.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: Nursing Treatments; Nursing Collaboration; Postpartum Hemorrhage; Maternal Mortality
Online: 2 April 2021 (14:36:31 CEST)
Postpartum hemorrhage is a complication during the puerperium that requires serious management, because it risks on threatening the mother's death. Currently, postpartum hemorrhage is still the main cause of maternal morbidity and mortality in the world. There is a need for a fast, precise and comprehensive handling effort involving all elements, such as the entire health team including doctors-nurses and families. The form of nursing intervention in postpartum hemorrhage patients can be in the form of nursing treatment or collaboration. The purpose of this review literature is to identify nursing treatment and nursing collaboration in postpartum hemorrhage patients as an effort to prevent maternal death. The writing method uses literature reviews by summarizing 10 articles publicated in 2019, 2020 and 2021 in 4 search data bases including Sciencedirect, Scopus, Proquest and Thompson. The review guidelines used are based on Prisma and the Joanna Briggs Institutute. The level of eligibility is identified through the title, abstract, research methodology and full text. The results of the reviews found are presented in a narrative form. The results of the review study found that there were 10 articles on postpartum hemorrhage management measures both in the effort of snoring treatment and collaboration including: optimizing the competence of service providers based on E_Learning , foot reflexology since the 4th stage of labor, 800 mcg sublingual Misoprostol, the use of the Digital Postpartum Hemorrhage Management Device ( DPHMD), bilateral-contralateral cervical clamps, suction tube uterine tampons, bilateral hypogastric artery (BHAL), evaluation of Shock Index, Carbetocin drugs and administration of Tranexamic acid 1 gram IV within 10 minutes of vaginal delivery. The conclusion of this review literature is that nursing treatment and nursing collaboration are proven to have a positive impact as an effort to prevent death in postpartum hemorrhage patients.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202101.0128.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: atypical presentation; COVID-19; frailty; mortality; older patients
Online: 6 January 2021 (15:30:48 CET)
Introduction: We describe the clinical features and inpatient trajectories of older adults hospitalized with COVID-19, and explore relationships with frailty. Methods: This retrospective observational study included older adults admitted as an emergency to a University Hospital who were diagnosed with COVID-19. Patient characteristics and hospital outcomes, primarily inpatient death or death within 14 days of discharge, were described for the whole cohort and by frailty status. Associations with mortality were further evaluated using Cox Proportional Hazards Regression (Hazard Ratio [HR], 95% Confidence Interval). Results: 214 patients (94 women) were included of whom 142 (66.4%) were frail with a median Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) score of 6. Frail compared to non-frail patients were more likely to present with atypical symptoms including new or worsening confusion (45.1% vs 20.8%, p<0.001) and were more likely to die (66% vs 16%, p=0.001). Older age, being male, presenting with high illness acuity and high frailty were independent predictors of death and a dose-response association between frailty and mortality was observed (CFS 1-4: reference; CFS 5-6: HR 1.78, 95% CI 0.90, 3.53; CFS 7-8: HR 2.57, 95% CI 1.26, 5.24). Conclusions: Clinicians should have a low threshold for testing for COVID-19 in older and frail patients during periods of community viral transmission and diagnosis should prompt early advanced care planning.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0117.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Oncology And Oncogenics Keywords: prostatic neoplasms/mortality; prostatic neoplasms/epidemiology; SEER program
Online: 5 August 2020 (09:46:50 CEST)
The real-world outcomes of patients with metastatic prostate cancer (mPCa) are largely unexplored. We investigated the improvements in overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with de novo mPCa in latest years. The USA SEER Research Data (2000-2017) were analyzed using the SEER*Stat software. The Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression were used. Patients with de novo mPCa were allocated to 3 cohorts based on year of diagnosis: A (2000-2003), B (2004-2010), C (2011-2014). Maximum follow-up was fixed to 5 years. Overall, 26434 patients were included. Age, race and metastatic stage significantly affected OS and CSS. After adjustment for age and race, patients in cohort C showed 9% reduced risk of death (HR:0.91 [95% CI, 0.87-0.95], p<0.001) and 8% reduced risk of cancer-specific death (HR:0.91 [95% CI, 0.87-0.95], p<0.001) compared to those in cohort A. After adjustment for age, race and metastatic stage, patients in cohort C showed an improvement in OS and CSS compared to cohort B (HR:0.94 [95% CI, 0.91-0.97], p=0.001 and HR:0.89 [95% CI, 0.85-0.92], p<0.001). Patients with M1c disease had a more pronounced improvement in OS and CSS compared with the other stages. No differences were found between cohort B and C. In conclusion, the prognosis of de novo mPCa remains poor with a median OS of 30 months and a median CSS of 35 months. Limited OS and CSS improvements were observed in latest years.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0662.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Orthopedics And Sports Medicine Keywords: sport; health; body mass index; obesity; morbidity; mortality
Online: 28 July 2020 (04:21:17 CEST)
The classic Body Mass Index, (BMI), developed in the 19th century by the Belgian mathematician Adolphe Quetelet  is an important indicator of the risk of death, of obesity, of negative health consequences, body fat percentage and of the shape of the body. While he BMI is assumed to indicate obesity in sedentary people and in people who do not practice sports, it is undisputed and a consensus among researchers  that Body Mass Index (BMI) is not a good indicator for obesity in people who developed their body through heavy physical work or sport but also in other segments of population such as those who appear to have a normal weight but in fact have a high body fat percentage and obese methabolism. The BMI also does not include all the variables essential for a health predictor. The BMI is not always a good predictor of metabolic disease, people who appear of healthy weight according to BMI have in some cases an obese metabolic syndrome. The BMI was developed as a law of natural sciences and “social physics” , as it was called then, before the middle of the 19th century, and it had been used from the 70s for medical purposes, to detect obesity and the risk of mortality . The BMI has a huge importance for modern society, affected by an obesity epidemic . BMI has applications in medicine, sport medicine, sport, fitness, bodybuilding, insurance, nutrition, pharmacology. The main limitation of the BMI is that it does not account for body composition including non fat body mass such as muscles, joints, body frame and makes no difference between fat and non fat components of the body weight. The body composition and the proportion of fat and muscles make a difference in health outcomes  …. Body composition makes a difference also in the level of sport performance for athletes of every level. In nearly two centuries since the Body Mass Index was developed, no formula had been successfully developed to account for body composition and make the difference between muscle and fat in a consistent way. This can be considered a longstanding open problem of major importance for society. The objective of this analysis is to develop new formulae taking into account the health implication of body composition measured through indirect, simple indicators and making the difference between muscles and fat, healthy and non healthy metabolism. The formulae developed in this article are the only formula to successfully generalize BMI and make this difference. I develop a direct generalization of BMI, in the mathematical and physiological sense to account for fat and fat free mass and muscles, small and large body frames. It is the first such generalization because the classic BMI can be determined as a particular case of my formulae in the strict mathematical and practical physiologic sense. No other formula generalized the BMI to make the difference between fat and a large frame and muscles has ever been published in nearly two centuries since the BMI formula had been developed. The formulae I developed explain and generalize the conclusions of a large number of highly cited empirical experiments cited in the reference section.  .. Most of the experimental proof I bring in support of my formulae and bodyweight quantification theory comes from many highly cited experimental research publications in medicine, sports medicine, sport science and physiology. My formulae explain also performance in decades of competitive sports and athletics
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201906.0017.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Oncology And Oncogenics Keywords: breast cancer; relative survival; excess hazard; excess mortality
Online: 3 June 2019 (10:08:23 CEST)
Measurement of breast cancer burden and identification of its influencing factors help in the development of public health policy and strategy against the disease. This study aimed to examine the variability of the excess mortality of female breast cancer patients in the North East Region of Peninsular Malaysia. This retrospective cohort study was conducted using breast cancer data from the Kelantan Cancer Registry between 2007 and 2011, and Kelantan general population mortality data. The breast cancer cases were followed up for five years until 2016. Out of 598 cases, 549 cases met the study criteria and were included in the analysis. Modelling of excess mortality was conducted using Poisson regression. Excess mortality of breast cancer varied according to age group (50 years old and below vs above 50 years old, Adj. EHR: 1.47; 95% CI: 1.31, 4.09; P=0.004), ethnicity (Malay vs non-Malay, Adj. EHR: 2.31; 95% CI: 1.11, 1.96; P=0.008), and stage (stage III and IV vs. stage I and II, Adj. EHR: 5.75; 95% CI: 4.24, 7.81; P<0.001). In conclusion, public health policy and strategy aim to improve cancer survival should focus more on patients presented at age below 50 years old, Malay ethnicity, and at a later stage.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201811.0311.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Dietetics And Nutrition Keywords: mini nutritional assessment; acute myocardial infarction; mortality; elderly
Online: 13 November 2018 (10:56:25 CET)
Background: Malnutrition is a frequent condition in the elderly and is associated with prolonged hospitalization and increased mortality. However, the impact of malnutrition among elderly patients with acute myocardial infarction has not been clarified yet. Methods and Results: We have enrolled 174 patients aged 65 years and over, admitted with the diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) who underwent to the evaluation of nutritional status by Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) and of mortality risk by Grace score 2.0. All-cause mortality was the outcome considered for this study. Over a mean follow-up of 24.5 ± 18.2 months, 43 deaths have been registered (24.3%). Non-survivors were more likely to be older, with worse GFR, lower SBP, lower albumin and MNA score, higher prevalence of Killip classification III-IV grade, and higher Troponin I levels. Multivariate Cox proportional analysis revealed that Grace score and MNA showed a significant and independent impact on mortality, (HR = 1.76, 95% CI = 1.34–2.32 and HR = 0.56, 95% CI = 0.42–0.73, respectively). Moreover, the clinical decision curve revealed a higher clinical net benefit when the MNA was included compared to the partial models without MNA. Conclusions: Nutritional status is an independent predictor of long-term mortality among elderly patients with AMI. MNA score in elderly patients with AMI may help prognostic stratification and identification of patients with/at risk of malnutrition in order to apply interventions to improve nutritional status and maybe survival in this population.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201811.0017.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public Health And Health Services Keywords: morbidity; mortality; network analysis; victims of internal conflict
Online: 2 November 2018 (05:11:13 CET)
Health differences across socioeconomic strata have always pointed out that poorer and minorities have higher mortality and morbidity than richer and majorities. This difference is exacerbated for particular populations such as the victims of ongoing armed conflicts, who are also much harder to quantify due to the conflict itself. This study applies network analysis to a combination of three large administrative records for the health system and mortality records in the province of Risaralda (Colombia) between 2011 and 2016. It produces the most common causes of morbi-mortality for both victims of violence and the poorest inhabitants of Risaralda, defined as those who qualify as recipients of subsidies from the Colombian welfare program called SISBEN in the categories of highest need. Both populations show high morbidity frequencies for non-communicable diseases such as Type II diabetes, hypertension, and hyperglyceridaemia, mostly associated with exposure to unhealthy lifestyles. Additionally, the mortality outcomes reflect the different lifestyles and medical treatments of both subpopulations. While the poorest replicate the same causes identified for morbidity, the victims of armed conflict die of additional causes including Type II diabetes, which reflects the even worse conditions they face.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201808.0147.v1
Subject: Physical Sciences, Applied Physics Keywords: Intensive care unit, early cardiopulmonary rehabilitation, mortality, readmission
Online: 7 August 2018 (15:33:49 CEST)
Background: This study aims to compare the impact of early and late post-discharge cardiopulmonary rehabilitation on the outcomes of intensive care unit (ICU) survivors. Methods: The retrospective, cohort study used a sub-database of the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) that contains information of all patients had ICU admission between 2000 and 2012. Early group was defined if patients had received cardiopulmonary rehabilitation within 30 days after ICU discharge, and late group was define as if patients had received cardiopulmonary rehabilitation between 30 days and one year after ICU discharge. The end points were mortality and re-admission during the 3-year follow-up. Results: Among 2136 patients received cardiopulmonary rehabilitation after ICU discharge, 994 was classified early group and other 1142 patients were classified as late group. Overall, early group had a lower mortality rate (6.64% vs 10.86%, p = 0.0006), and a lower ICU readmission rate (47.8% vs 57.97%, p < 0.0001) than late group after 3-year follow-up. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that early group had significantly lower mortality (p=0.0009) and readmission rate (p<0.0001) than late group. In multivariate analysis, the risk of ICU readmission was found to be independently associated with late group (HR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.13-1.47). Conclusions: Early post-discharge cardiopulmonary rehabilitation among ICU survivors has the long-term survival benefit and significantly decreases the readmission rate.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201804.0368.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Obstetrics And Gynaecology Keywords: proportion; near-misses; morbidity; mortality; public health institution
Online: 28 April 2018 (11:56:04 CEST)
Background: Maternal near-miss refers to a situation where a woman who nearly died but survived from severe life-threatening obstetric complications that occurred during pregnancy, childbirth or within 42 days of termination of pregnancy. It has been estimated that up to 9 million women survive obstetric complications every year. According to studies done around the world most mothers suffer from Near Miss due to the factors which includes, low socioeconomic status, patient related, health provider related, and health related and health institution related issues. Objectives: The objective of the study was to determine the proportion of maternal near misses and its associated factors in Selected Public Health Institutions of Keffa, Bench-Maji and Sheka Zones of South Nations Nationalities and Peoples Regional state, South West Ethiopia, 2017. Methodology: Hospital based cross-sectional study design was employed and simple random sampling techniques (Lottery Method) was used to select the study institution and Systematic sampling technique was used to select 845 study participants every 5th interval. Information was collected by using pre-tested and structured interviewer administered questioner. Using SPSS version 21 software, descriptive statistics and bivariate logistic regression analysis was done and variables with p-value <0.2 were transferred to multivariate analysis and during Multivariate logistic regression analysis Variables with P-value < 0.05 were considered as statistically significant and AOR with 95% CI were used to control for possible confounders and to interpret the result. The results were summarized by tables, graphs and charts. Result: There were 5530 Live Births, 227 Sever Acute Maternal Morbidity cases of this 210 were Maternal Near-Misses cases and 17 were maternal deaths, 364 Maternal Near-Misses Events. The overall Maternal Near-Misses Proportion is 24.85%. The maternal Near-Misses outcome ratio was 41 cases/1,000 live births (LB); mortality ratio was 12.35cases/1 maternal death and 74.8/1000LB of mortality index. Parity, residence, distance of living place from hospital, ANC Follow up, duration of labor, and administrative related problems were found to have statistically significant associations. Conclusion: The proportion of Maternal Near-Misses is relatively high when compared to other regional studies and efforts should be done to lower the near-misses.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201701.0065.v2
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: lee-carter; cairns-blake-dowd; mortality models; backtesting
Online: 8 May 2017 (07:38:50 CEST)
The work proposes a backtesting analysis in comparison between the Lee-Carter and the Cairns-Blake-Dowd mortality models, employing Italian data. The mortality data come from the Italian National Statistics Institute (ISTAT) database and span the period 1975-2014, over which we computed back-projections evaluating the performances of the models in comparisons with real data. We propose three different backtest approaches, evaluating the goodness of short-run forecast versus medium-length ones. We find that both models were not able to capture the improving shock on the mortality observed for the male population on the analyzed period. Moreover, the results suggest that CBD forecast are reliable prevalently for ages above 75, and that LC forecast are basically more accurate for this data.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201607.0047.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: SAINT model; SiZer; local linear fitting; mortality data
Online: 18 July 2016 (10:35:40 CEST)
The main contribution of this paper is to develop a graphical tool to evaluate the suitability of a candidate parametric model to fit a data set. The practical motivation is to check the adequacy of the so called SAINT model proposed in Jarner and Kryger (2011). This model has been implemented in practice by an important European pension fund concerned with setting annuity reserves for all current or former employees of Denmark. So, one particular relevant question is whether this mortality model is actually fitting old-age. Our graphical test can be described as follows. First we transform the data by means of the parametric model which is being evaluated. Should the model be correct, the transformed data will be in accordance with an Exponential distribution with rate 1. Then we construct a family of local linear hazard estimates based on the data on the transformed scale. Finally we use the statistical tool SiZer to assess the goodness-of-fit of the Exponential distribution to the data on the transformed scale. If the model is correct the SiZer map should not reveal any significant feature in the family of kernel estimates. Our method allow us to establish a diagnostic regarding the validity of the SAINT model when describing mortality patterns in four different countries.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.1757.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Oncology And Oncogenics Keywords: Renal cell carcinoma; Epidemiology; Immunotherapy; Prevalence rate; Mortality rate
Online: 27 October 2023 (05:18:31 CEST)
Renal cell carcinoma (RCC), alternative term for kidney cancer, is becoming more common worldwide each year, and there are many different contributing factors. Among all cancers, RCC is the 14th most prevalent; and it ranks as the 14th and 9th most prevalent cancer overall for women and men respectively. RCC cases increased by more than 430,000 in 2020. While disease burdens are highest in Eastern Europe (Belarus and Russia) and North America (Canada and the United States), Africa, Asia, and Latin America are predicted to report increase in prevalence as these regions embrace change in lifestyle. The majority of RCC cases are accidentally found on imaging, and survival is greatly impacted by the disease stage at diagnosis, with a metastatic cancer having a 5-year survival rate of 12%. As a consequence of early discovery and more improved treatments, RCC mortality has declined. The key epidemiologic variables of RCC include vast regional and geographical heterogeneity in prevalence rates, and the cause is largely unclear. Recognized risk factors include smoking, being overweight, having previous episodes of hypertension, and suffering chronic renal illness. Unexpectedly swift, RCC diagnosis and therapy have advanced. RCC prevalence continues to rise although survival rates have sharply improved. Cancer survival and treatment have improved, and more gains are projected as a result of clinical and translational research. In this review, kidney cancer statistics and recent literatures are examined on a global scale. It covered aspects of kidney cancer, including its epidemiology, causes, risk factors, current immunotherapy, chances for prevention, and future planning.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0102.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Gastroenterology And Hepatology Keywords: Cirrhosis; Advanced Chronic Liver Disease; Surgery; Postoperative risk; Mortality
Online: 4 September 2023 (07:24:16 CEST)
Patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) or cirrhosis undergoing surgery have an increased risk of morbidity and mortality in contrast to the general population. Retrospective, observational study of ACLD patients to evaluate the predictive capacity of previous surgical risk scores in a European cohort of patients. ACLD was defined by the presence of thrombocytopenia <150.000/uL and splenomegaly; AST-to-Platelet Ratio Index >2; nodular liver edge by ultrasound; transient elastography >15 kPa and/or signs of portal hypertension. We assessed variables related to 90-day mortality and the discrimination and calibration of current surgical scores (Child-Pugh, MELD-Na, MRS, NSQIP, and VOCAL-Penn). Only patients with ACLD and major surgeries included in VOCAL-Penn were considered (n=512). The mortality rate at 90 days after surgery was 9.8%. Baseline disparities between H. Mar and VOCAL-Penn cohorts were identified. Etiology, obesity, or platelet count not were associated with mortality. The VOCAL-Penn showed the best discrimination (C-statistic90D= 0.876) and overall predictive capacity (Brier90D= 0.054) but calibration was not excellent in our cohort. VOCAL-Penn was suboptimal in patients with diabetes (C-statistic30D= 0.770), without signs of portal hypertension (C-statistic30D= 0.555), or with an abdominal wall (C-statistic30D= 0.608) or urgent (C-statistic180D= 0.692) surgeries. Our European cohort has shown a mortality rate after surgery similar to those described in American studies. However, some variables included in the VOCAL-Penn score were not associated with mortality, and VOCAL-Penn’s discriminative ability decreases in patients with diabetes, without signs of portal hypertension, and with abdominal wall or urgent surgeries. These results should be validated in larger multicenter and prospective studies.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.2014.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: Longevity risk; stochastic mortality models; Lee-Carter; model selection
Online: 28 July 2023 (12:31:25 CEST)
Stochastic mortality models seek to forecast future mortality rates; thus, apparently the objective variable should be the mortality rate expressed in the original scale. However, the performance of stochastic mortality models - in terms, that is, of their goodness-of-fit and prediction accuracy - is often based on the logarithmic scale of the mortality rate. In this article, we examine whether the same forecast outcomes are obtained when the performance of mortality models is assessed based on the original and log scales of the mortality rate. We compare four different stochastic mortality models: the original Lee-Carter model, the Lee-Carter model with (log-)normal distribution, the Lee-Carter model with Poisson distribution and the median Lee-Carter model. We show that the preferred model will depend on the scale of the objective variable, the selection criteria measure and the range of ages analysed.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.0189.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Oncology And Oncogenics Keywords: GIST; GI neurotransmitter; Pacemaker; SEER database; Clinical characteristics; Mortality
Online: 4 July 2023 (10:23:16 CEST)
Background: Gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) are rare mesenchymal neoplasms of the gastrointestinal tract (GIT) that represent approximately 1 to 2 percent of primary gastrointestinal (GI) cancers. Owing to their rarity, very little is known about the overall epidemiology and prognostic factors of the pathology. The purpose of this study is to investigate the clinical characteristics, survival outcomes, and independent prognostic factors of patients with GIST in the past decade. Methods: A total of 2,374 patients diagnosed with GIST, between 2010 and 2017, were ultimately enrolled in our study by retrieving the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. We analyzed demographics, clinical characteristics, and overall mortality (OM) as well as cancer-specific mortality (CSM) of GIST. Variables with a p value < 0.01 in the univariate Cox regression were incorporated into the multivariate Cox model to determine the independent prognostic factors, with a hazard ratio (HR) of greater than 1 representing adverse prognostic factors. Results: Multivariate cox proportional hazard regression analyses of factors affecting all-cause mortality and GIST related mortality among US patients between 2010 and 2017 revealed higher overall mortality in Non-Hispanic Blacks (HR= 1.516, 95% CI 1.172-1.961, p= 0.002), age 80+ (HR= 9.783, 95% CI4.185-22.868, p= 0), followed by age 60-79 (HR= 3.408, 95% CI 1.488-7.807, p=0.004); male patients (HR= 1.795 , 95% CI 1.461-2.206, p=0); advanced disease with distant metastasis (HR= 3.865 , 95% CI 2.977-5.019, p=0), followed by regional involvement by both direct extension and lymph node involvement (HR= 3.853, 95% CI 1.551-9.57, p=0.004); and widowed patients (HR= 1.975, 95% CI 1.494-2.61, p= 0), followed by single patients (HR= 1.53, 95% CI 1.154-2.028, p=0.003). The highest CSM was observed in the same groups, except widowed patients and patients aged 60-79. The highest CSM was also observed among patients that underwent chemotherapy (HR= 1.687, 95% CI 1.19-2.392, p= 0.003). Conclusion: In this United States population-based retrospective cohort study using the SEER database, we found that non-Hispanic blacks, male patients, and patients older than 60 years have a higher mortality with GIST. Furthermore, patients who received chemotherapy have a higher GIST specific mortality and married patients had a lower mortality. However, we do not know to what extent these independent prognostic factors interact with each other to influence mortality. This study paves the way for future studies addressing those interactions. The results of this study may help treating clinicians to identify patient populations associated with dismal prognosis as those may require closer follow-up and more intensive therapy; furthermore, with married patients having a better survival, we hope to encourage clinicians to involve family members of the affected patients early in the disease course as the social support might impact the prognosis.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.1417.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Medicine And Pharmacology Keywords: COVID-19; risk factors; hospitalization; mortality; Bosnia and Herzegovina
Online: 20 June 2023 (09:38:40 CEST)
Background and Objectives: Since the beginning of COVID-19 pandemic, the infection primarily affected patients with following chronic conditions: cardiovascular disease, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, obesity and cancer. The aim of this study was to explore clinical and epidemiological characteristics associated with COVID-19 outcomes in patients at the primary health care centre from March 2020 to September 2022. Materials and Methods: The study included 40,692 citizens of Banja Luka County, Bosnia and Herzegovina, who were confirmed and registered as RT-PCR positive on COVID-19. Differences regarding the distributions of patients between groups were analysed using Pearson chi square test and Mantel-Haenszel chi square test for trends, while differences in mean values were compared using independent samples t test. Relationship between mortality and independent variables were examined using logistic regression. Results: Out of 40,692 COVID-19 positive patients, 7.76% were hospitalized. The average age of hospitalized patients was significantly higher than the age of non-hospitalized patients (64.2±16.1 vs. 45.4±18.7; p<0.001). The average age of patients with lethal outcome was nearly twice higher compared to patients with non-lethal outcome (74.6±11.5 vs. 45.7±18.6; p<0.001). Male patients had higher hospitalization and mortality rate, compared to females (9.8% vs. 5.9%, p<0.001; 4.8% vs. 3%, p<0.001, respectively). The highest hospitalization rate was in patients with chronic renal failure, diabetes and cardiovascular diseases, while the death rate was the highest among patients with CRF and hearth comorbidities. Fever, cough, fatigue, nausea and vomiting, chest pain, shortness of breath and appetite loss favoured hospitalization. Patients with fatigue and appetite loss had higher percentage of lethal outcome. Vaccinated patients had significantly lower rate of lethal outcome. Conclusions: Clinical symptoms, signs and outcomes, are posing as predictive parameters for further management of COVID-19. Vaccination has an important role in clinical outcomes of COVID-19.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.0930.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public Health And Health Services Keywords: Health service needs; statins; mortality; population; primary prevention; subgroups
Online: 13 June 2023 (11:00:57 CEST)
The effects of statin use for primary prevention in reducing mortality among older adults in Asian populations are unknown. This study aimed to determine whether use of statins for primary prevention was associated with a decreased risk of all-cause mortality in a Japanese older adult population. A regional, population-based, longitudinal cohort study was conducted using the Shizuoka Kokuho Database (SKDB). Data were compared between the statin-treated group and a non-statin-treated (control) group using the inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) method. In the SKDB cohort aged ≥65 years, new statin use was associated with a decreased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 0.40; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.33–0.48) after IPTW adjustment. The risk difference for mortality at 5 years in the statin-treated group (7.9%) compared with that in the control group (92.1%) was 0.05 (95% CI, 0.04–0.06), and the number needed to treat was 21.20 (95% CI, 18.10–24.70). In conclusion, statin use for primary prevention in older adults may reduce the risk of all-cause mortality in the population without atherosclerotic disease. Furthermore, statin use for primary prevention is feasible in patients aged 75 to <85 years and in patients with comorbidities such as diabetes, or dementia.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202303.0491.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Oncology And Oncogenics Keywords: Cancer; Incidence; Mortality; Artificial Intelligence; Machine learning; Neural network
Online: 28 March 2023 (14:10:14 CEST)
Cancer is a major concern for people, and accurately predicting the probability of cancer incidence and mortality is an important research topic. With the development of big data and artificial intelligence technology, a new machine learning model has emerged. Using 72,591 pieces of data, including age, case count, population size, race, gender, site of onset, and year of discovery, we built a machine learning model. Through calculations, we found that the decision tree, random forest, logistic regression, support vector machine, and neural network achieved testing accuracies of 62.11%, 61.68%, 54.53%, 55.72%, and 63.10%, respectively. With the help of this model, scientists and policymakers can accurately predict future cancer incidence and mortality rates through databases, allowing them to make relevant policies (such as timely allocating doctors and medical resources) to better serve the people.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202302.0134.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Forestry Keywords: planting depth; drought; freeze injury; herbivory; mortality; survival; insects
Online: 7 February 2023 (14:01:52 CET)
Artificial regeneration is successful when high performing seedlings are transported with care to the planting site, stored for a short period in an environment without desiccation or fungal growth, and are planted in a deep hole so roots are in contact with moist soil. One of the requirements for success is the ability to avoid common planting mistakes. Due, in part, to use of container stock plus an increase in rainfall, average 1st year survival of pine seedlings (89%) in the southern United States is about 15% greater now than 45 years ago. However, when survival is less than 50% six months after planting, some landowners seek reimbursement for their loss. Some assume poor seedling quality was the cause without realizing that anaerobic soils or sudden freeze events or shallow planting holes or pruning roots, a lack of rain, or underground insects can kill pines. With a focus on pines planted in the southern United States, we list non-nursery factors that have killed seedlings in North America, Africa and Europe.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202203.0365.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Emergency Medicine Keywords: SOFA; Impedance ratio; mortality; emergency department; Critical care; prediction
Online: 28 March 2022 (14:01:05 CEST)
Background: The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) is a scoring system used for the evaluation of disease severity and prognosis of critically ill patients. The impedance ratio (Imp-R) is a novel mortality predictor. Aims: This study aimed to evaluate the combination of SOFA + Imp-R in the prediction of mortality in critically ill patients admitted to the emergency department (ED). Methods: A retrospective cohort study was performed in adult patients with acute illness admitted to the ED of a tertiary-care referral center. Baseline SOFA score and bioelectrical impedance analysis to obtain the Imp-R were performed within the first 24 hours after admission to the ED. A Cox regression analysis was performed to evaluate mortality risk of initial SOFA score plus Imp-R. Harrell's C-statistic and decision curve analyses (DCA) were performed. Results: Out of 325 patients, 240 were included for analysis. Overall mortality was 31.3%. Only 21.3% of non-surviving patients died after hospital discharge, and 78.4% died during hospital stay. Of the latter, 40.6% died in the ED. SOFA and Imp-R values were higher in non-survivors and were significantly associated with mortality in all models. The combination of SOFA + Imp-R significantly predicted 30-day mortality, in-hospital mortality, and ED mortality with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.80 (95% CI: 74-0.86), 0.79 (95% CI: 0.74-0.86) and 0.75 (95% CI: 0.66-0.84) respectively. The DCA showed that combining SOFA + Imp-R improved the prediction of mortality through the lower risk thresholds. Conclusion: The addition of Imp-R to baseline SOFA score at admission to the ED improves mortality prediction in severely acutely ill patients admitted to the ED.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202110.0434.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Obstetrics And Gynaecology Keywords: Ovarian Cancer; Epidemiology; Risk Factors; Screening; Diagnosis, Mortality; Incidence
Online: 28 October 2021 (11:41:05 CEST)
Abstract – Objective: Ovarian cancer, although not possessing a high incidence, is still the most common cancer-related deaths among women diagnosed with a gynecologic malignancy. The present study aims to highlight the epidemiology, risk factors of this disease and the significance of development of improved early detection strategies. Materials and Methods: This study was conducted using current published English studies by searching PubMed and Google Scholar. The search strategy included the keywords “ovarian cancer”, “diagnosis”, “risk factors”, “screening”, “epidemiology”. Studies on incidence and mortality were also considered. Case reports were excluded.Results: The highest incidence and mortality rates are observed in Central and Eastern Europe, while rates are relatively low in Asia and Africa. These rates are highest among the white population (14.3 per 100,000) and lowest among blacks (10 per 100,000) and Asians (9.7 per 100,000). The risk factors for this disease includes a family history, hormonal factors, nutrition and diet and physical activity, with some of them playing protective roles in reducing risk of ovarian cancers. There are no reliable screening methods for ovarian cancers. The most common diagnosis methods include a transvaginal ultrasound and a blood test to detect CA125 markers.Conclusions: The mortality rate of ovarian cancer is gradually increasing; thus, preventative measures are required to reduce lifetime risk of ovarian cancers and improve mortality rate.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202107.0109.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: coagulation impairment; international normalised ratio; mortality; pulmonary embolism; thrombosis
Online: 5 July 2021 (15:36:32 CEST)
Pulmonary embolism (PE) is one of the leading causes of cardiovascular mortality, therefore new parameters regarding risk stratification are sought after. In patients admitted for acute PE we investigated associations between the initial coagulation impairment, expressed by prothrombin time international normalised ratio (INR), and parameters reflecting PE severity. Furthermore, in-hospital, 30-day and long-term mortality were also evaluated. The analysis included 848 patients who were divided into two groups: with normal INR≤1.2, and elevated INR>1.2 (252 patients, 29.7%). The group with elevated INR presented higher incidence of tachycardia and lower systolic blood pressure, higher CRP, d-dimer, and NT-proBNP. This group presented higher estimated systolic pulmonary artery pressure (49 IQR39-62mmHg vs 43 IQR32-53mmHg, p<0.001) and shorter pulmonary artery acceleration time (65 IQR55-85ms vs 81 IQR63-102ms; p<0.001). Patients with elevated INR had more often a sPESI of 1 or higher (78%vs60%, p=0.003). Cox regression model revealed that age, leukocyte level, SBP, neoplasm, and INR are associated with higher risk of death (p<0.001). Finally, elevated INR was associated with higher in-hospital (13%vs3%; p<0.001), 30-day (19%vs6%; p<0.001), and long-term mortality (p<0.001). Summing up, elevated INR on admission is frequent in patients with PE, reflects worse clinical condition and is related to PE severity and prognosis.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0258.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: COVID-19; interventions; growth curve; recovery; mortality; protective immunity
Online: 12 July 2020 (14:33:56 CEST)
COVID-19 is fast spreading around the globe in a highly contagious manner. The results from our study showed that after intervention with successive Lockdowns, there was marked decrease in the rate of COVID-19 cases, though there was sporadic volatility in number of COVID-19 cases due to some extrinsic factors. Concomitant with reduction in rate of COVID-19 there was gradual increase in doubling time of COVID-19, steady increase in number of discharged/recovered patients from COVID-19 reaching to ≥ 58% taking the entire Indian population into consideration. Another important aspect was consistent low mortality rate was accompanied by gradual increase in recovery rate of COVID-19 in the population. The possible implication of these results in the development of protective immunity in the population has been discussed.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0376.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Neuroscience And Neurology Keywords: urinary tract infection; multiple sclerosis; hospitalization and mortality rate
Online: 21 April 2020 (06:03:22 CEST)
Introduction: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a demyelinating, chronic, inflammatory and autoimmune disease of the central nervous system (CNS) with axonal degeneration, presenting a progressive and variable course. MS patients usually have complications, such as bladder dysfunction, presence of urinary symptoms and Urinary Tract infection (UTI), which is one of the three most common non-neurological complications in MS patients. Objective: Analyze the most diverse aspects of UTI in MS patients, focusing on risk factors, prevalence, hospitalization and mortality rates of UTIs in this group. Methods: A non-systematic review of articles published on PubMed in the last 10 years with the search terms "Urinary Tract Infection" AND "Multiple Sclerosis". Discussion: MS patients have a high UTI prevalence, mainly due to the occurrence of urinary disorders in these patients. The most common symptoms of UTI in MS patients are urinary urgency, polyuria, nocturia, urinary retention, and incontinence. Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Klebsiella pneumoniae were the most found organisms and treatment is based on antibiotic therapy. Moreover, UTIs can precipitate outbreaks, worsen the disease, causing more damage and a severe neurological condition deterioration. Therefore, UTIs in this group are associated with a high hospitalizations rate and a high mortality rate. Conclusion: UTI represents a great risk and concern in MS patients. The high prevalence, hospitalization rate and mortality rate of UTI in MS is worrying, such as the cause-consequence relationship between UTIs and the use of corticosteroids in outbreaks. Therefore, it is important to be aware of a UTI in this group to make early diagnoses, adequate management, and new infections prevention. Thus, further studies are needed to thoroughly analyze each nuance of this important comorbidity for MS patients.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201905.0345.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Psychiatry And Mental Health Keywords: mortality; Alzheimer's; education; life expectancy; mentality; level of development
Online: 29 May 2019 (08:39:53 CEST)
Study nature of epidemiological risk factors and patterns of distribution of mortality from Alzheimer's (DA) in 160 countries. An exponential Malthus model was used to construct adequate approximations of statistical data. Proportionality of average lifetime after 55 years (Δt) to education index (Ψ) was established. Ranking of countries by increasing value of ΨΔt showed that DA depends exponentially on ΨΔt and all countries can be divided into three groups in accordance with level of their economic development. In series of countries of low, medium and highly developed, their average values of DA increase exponentially. Growth of DA in developed countries in post-industrial epoch was explained by emergence of a new risk factor Alzheimer's of a mental nature. A mismatch of complexity or, on contrary, primitiveness of profession with level of mental development of worker, provokes development of chronic stress in him, fraught with pathologies of cognitive function metabolism in elderly. The geography of Alzheimer's disease was explained by the dependence of the human mentality on latitudinal climate change and on the chiral factor of a solar nature acting at night on a sleeping person.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201803.0178.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Dietetics And Nutrition Keywords: breastfeeding; mortality; obesity; overweight; stunting; wasting; education; life expectancy
Online: 20 March 2018 (10:29:32 CET)
Background: The preexistence of obesity with nutritional anaemia is becoming an increasing problem in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR). Much controversy exists around the role of continued breastfeeding in alleviating the health and survival consequences of these problems in the region. Aim: To examine trends and relationships of nutritional anaemia (NA) in women and children under-five years of age (CU5) with obesity and breastfeeding practices in the EMR. Methods: Data from regional database banks of WHO and UNICEF for anaemia in pregnant and non-pregnant women and CU5 from 22 countries in EMR were retrieved, compiled, and statistically analyzed. Breastfeeding indicators for timely first suckle (TFS), exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) and continued breastfeeding for 12 (BFC12) and 24 months (BFC24), low-birth-weight (LBW), stunting, overweight, total fertility rates (TFR) and mortality rates (MR) were correlated with nutritional anaemia and analyzed by income groups into 5 low income countries (LIC), 11 middle income countries (MIC) and 6 high income countries (HIC). Results: Trends in mean prevalence of anaemia in women showed a concave curve increasing after a short decrease in the early 2000 in all income groups (P > 0.05). Trends in anaemia in the CU5 exhibited a steep decrease from a mean of 52.59 ± 16.4 in 2000 to 37.3 ± 14.9 in 2016 at P < 0.002, the steep decline was significant in HIC (P < 0.01) and MIC (P < 0.02), but not for LIC (P > 0.05). Anaemia prevalence in women and CU5 was significantly correlated to LBW, stunting, and with overweight and obesity in adults but negatively in CU5. All age specific MRs were highly correlated with anaemia in pregnant, non-pregnant and CU5 at P < 0.001 and TFR at P < 0.05. BFC for shorter durations was negatively correlated with anaemia in pregnant women (r-0.5) at P < 0.05 and was positively correlated in MIC and HIC. In non-pregnant women, BFC12 and BFC 24 correlated positively with anaemia prevalence in all three income groups at P < 0.01. Conclusions: Completing optimal breastfeeding for two years should be promoted to protect women and CU5 from anemia and obesity. Nutritional anemia during pregnancy increases regional rates of LBW, stunting and mortality. Spacing out births by encouraging longer duration of breastfeeding, to replenish iron stores, can help alleviate many of the health and nutritional problems in the region.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.1052.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Pediatrics, Perinatology And Child Health Keywords: newborn; outborn; sick neonatal score; mortality; neonatal transportation; scoring system
Online: 17 October 2023 (12:06:27 CEST)
Background: Neonatal transportation of sick newborns is a major predictor of outcome. Prompt identification of the sickest newborns allows immediate corrective intervention and outcome optimization. Multiple severity scores were developed, however an optimal score has not yet been identified. Aim: To identify a rapid, accurate, and easy to perform score predictive for neonatal mortality in outborn neonates. Material and methods: All neonates, irrespective of gestational age, admitted by transfer in our level III regional neonatal unit between 01.01.2015 and 31.12.2021 were included. Infants with congenital critical abnormalities were excluded. Sick neonatal score (SNS) was calculated and compared between survivors and non-survivors. Gestational age (GA), birth weight (BW), gender, Apgar score, place of birth, time between delivery and admission (AT), early onset sepsis were collected from medical records and compared between study groups. Subgroup analysis was performed based on gestational age (preterm versus term infants). A new score was elaborated, including GA, BW, and AT, namely MSNS-AT score, to further improve mortality prediction. The main outcomes were mortality prediction using SNS and MSNS-AT score. Univariable and multivariable analysis, including Cox regression, were performed using SPSS Statistic 22.0. P-value was considered statistically significant if <0.05, 95% confidence intervals, odds ratio and hazard ratios were calculated were appropriate. Results: A total of 418 outborn infants were admitted during study period; 15 infants were excluded due to critical congenital defects. Out of 403 outborn infants, 217 born prematurely (53.8%), 224 males (55.6%), 20 died (4.96%). Compared to the survivors, the non-survivor neonates had significantly lower GA, BW, and SNS score (p<0.05), although only SNS score remained significantly lower in all subgroups (preterm vs term infants). A SNS score ≤8 was associated with mortality both in the whole study group and in subgroups (p<0.001). Time to admission was significantly associated with increased mortality rate in the whole group (p<0.05) and in preterm infants but not in term ones (p>0.05). In univariable and multivariable Cox regression models, MSNS-AT score, with a cut-off optimal value of ≤10 was more precise in predicting mortality compared to SNS (AUC 0.735 vs. 0.775) when applied to the entire group, had a lower accuracy in the term infants (AUC 0.765 vs 0.809) and a better accuracy the preterm infants group (AUC 0.885 vs. 0.810). Conclusions: The MSNS-AT score – calculated by adding GA, BW, and AT to the SNS score - significantly improved mortality prediction at admission in the whole study group as compared to SNS score. The best accuracy prediction of MSNS-AT score was observed in preterm infants suggesting that, besides GA and BW, TA may be decisive for the outcome of outborn preterm infants. Further studies are necessary to confirm the predictive value of MSNS-AT score and to identify variables that can improve its value in term infants without affecting the simplicity, ease, and rapidity of the scoring system.