Version 1
: Received: 2 February 2022 / Approved: 10 February 2022 / Online: 10 February 2022 (14:03:02 CET)
Version 2
: Received: 23 February 2022 / Approved: 25 February 2022 / Online: 25 February 2022 (14:24:30 CET)
Jones, R.P.; Ponomarenko, A. Trends in Excess Winter Mortality (EWM) from 1900/01 to 2019/20—Evidence for a Complex System of Multiple Long-Term Trends. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health2022, 19, 3407.
Jones, R.P.; Ponomarenko, A. Trends in Excess Winter Mortality (EWM) from 1900/01 to 2019/20—Evidence for a Complex System of Multiple Long-Term Trends. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 3407.
Jones, R.P.; Ponomarenko, A. Trends in Excess Winter Mortality (EWM) from 1900/01 to 2019/20—Evidence for a Complex System of Multiple Long-Term Trends. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health2022, 19, 3407.
Jones, R.P.; Ponomarenko, A. Trends in Excess Winter Mortality (EWM) from 1900/01 to 2019/20—Evidence for a Complex System of Multiple Long-Term Trends. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 3407.
Abstract
Trends in excess winter mortality (EWM) were investigated from the winter of 1900/01 to 2019/20. During the 1918-1919 Spanish flu epidemic a maximum EWM of 100% was observed in both Denmark and the USA. During the Spanish flu epidemic in the USA 70% of excess winter deaths were coded to influenza. EWM steadily declined from the Spanish flu peak to a minimum around the 1970’s to 1980’s. There is evidence that this decline was accompanied by a shift in deaths away from the winter, and that the EWM calculation shifted from a maximum around April to June in the early 1900’s to around March since 1967. EWM has a good correlation with the number of estimated influenza deaths, but in this context influenza pandemics after the Spanish flu only had an EWM equivalent to that for seasonal influenza. Using data from 1980 onward the effect of influenza vaccination on EWM was examined using a large international data set. No effect of increasing influenza vaccination could be discerned; however, there are multiple competing forces influencing EWM which will obscure any underlying trend, e.g., increasing age at death, multimorbidity, dementia, polypharmacy, diabetes, and obesity – all of which either interfere with vaccine effectiveness or are risk factors for influenza death. After adjusting the trend in EWM in the USA influenza vaccination can be seen to be masking higher winter deaths among a high morbidity US population. Winter deaths are clearly the outcome of a complex system of competing long-term trends.
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Commenter: Rodney Jones
Commenter's Conflict of Interests: Author