Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Trends, Projections, and Regional Disparities of Maternal Mortality in Africa (1990-2030): An ARIMA Forecasting Approach

Luc Onambele
,
Sara Guillen-Aguinaga
* ,
Laura Guillen-Aguinaga
ORCID logo ,
Wilfrido Ortega-Leon
,
Rocio Montejo
ORCID logo ,
Rosa Alas-Brun
,
Enrique Aguinaga-Ontoso
* ,
Ines Aguinaga-Ontoso
* ORCID logo ,
Francisco Guillen-Grima
*
Version 1 : Received: 29 June 2023 / Approved: 29 June 2023 / Online: 29 June 2023 (09:42:35 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Onambele, L.; Guillen-Aguinaga, S.; Guillen-Aguinaga, L.; Ortega-Leon, W.; Montejo, R.; Alas-Brun, R.; Aguinaga-Ontoso, E.; Aguinaga-Ontoso, I.; Guillen-Grima, F. Trends, Projections, and Regional Disparities of Maternal Mortality in Africa (1990–2030): An ARIMA Forecasting Approach. Epidemiologia 2023, 4, 322-351. Onambele, L.; Guillen-Aguinaga, S.; Guillen-Aguinaga, L.; Ortega-Leon, W.; Montejo, R.; Alas-Brun, R.; Aguinaga-Ontoso, E.; Aguinaga-Ontoso, I.; Guillen-Grima, F. Trends, Projections, and Regional Disparities of Maternal Mortality in Africa (1990–2030): An ARIMA Forecasting Approach. Epidemiologia 2023, 4, 322-351.

Abstract

(1) Background: With the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) (2015-2030) fo-cusing on reducing maternal mortality, monitoring and forecasting Maternal Mortality Rates (MMR) in regions like Africa become crucial for health strategy planning by policymakers, in-ternational organizations, and NGOs. (2) Methods: We collected maternal mortality rates per 100,000 births from the World Bank database between 1990 and 2015. Join Point regression was applied to assess trends, and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used on 1990-2015 data to forecast the MMR for the next 15 years. (3) Results: The study found a decline in MMR in Africa with an average annual percentage change (APC) of -2.6% (95% CI -2.7; -2.5). North Africa reported the lowest MMR, while East Africa experienced the sharpest decline. The region-specific ARIMA models predict that the maternal mortality rate (MMR) in 2030 will vary across regions, ranging from 65 deaths per 100,000 births in North Africa to 249 deaths per 100,000 births in Central Africa., averaging 197 per 100,000 births for the continent. (4) Conclusions: Despite the observed decreasing trend in maternal mortality rate (MMR), the MMR in Africa remains relatively high. The results indicate that MMR in Africa will continue to decrease by 2030. However, only North and South Africa will likely reach the SDG target.

Keywords

Africa; ARIMA; Maternal mortality rate; Joinpoint regression analysis; Mortality; trends

Subject

Public Health and Healthcare, Public Health and Health Services

Copyright: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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