In this paper, Rice water requirement and irrigation water requirement in Amol agro meteorological Station in 2016-2045 are forecasted based on the projected meteorological data of Hadcm3 under A2 scenario. Rice water requirements are estimated by using crop coefficient approach. Reference evapotranspiration are calculated by FAO Penman-Monteith method. Moreover, the irrigation water requirements are simulated by calibrated CROPWAT model using the meteorological parameters. The results show that both crop water requirement and irrigation water requirement present downward trend in the future. In 2016-2045, the rice water requirement and irrigation water requirement decrease by more than 9.9% under A2 scenario, respectively. Furthermore, the precipitation rise may be the main reason for the decrease in crop water requirement, while significant decrease of irrigation water requirement should be attributed to combined action of rising precipitation and a slight increase in temperature.

Changes in sea level exhibit nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and multivariable characteristics, making traditional time series forecasting methods less effective in producing satisfactory results. To enhance the accuracy of the predictions of changes in sea level, this study introduced an improved VMD–EEMD–LSTM hybrid model. This model decomposes satellite altimetry data from near the Dutch coast using VMD, resulting in components of the Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF) with various frequencies and a residual sequence. EEMD further dissects the residual sequence obtained from VMD into second-order components. These IMFs decomposed by VMD and EEMD are utilized as features in the LSTM model for making predictions, culminating in the final forecasted results. The experimental results demonstrated significant improvements in the predictive performance compared with the VMD–LSTM model. The RMSE (root mean square error) decreased by an average of 58.68%, the MAE (mean absolute error) reduced by an average of 59.96%, and the R2 (coefficient of determination) increased by an average of 49.85% compared with the VMD–LSTM model. In comparison with the EEMD–LSTM model, the RMSE decreased by an average of 26.95%, the MAE decreased by an average of 28.00%, and the R2 increased by an average of 6.53%. The VMD–EEMD–LSTM model exhibited significantly improved predictive performance.

Urban growth in various cities across the world, especially in developing countries, leads to land use change. Thus, predicting future urban growth in the most rapidly growing region of Nigeria becomes a significant endeavor. This study analyzes land use and land cover (LULC) change and predicts the future urban growth of the Lagos metropolitan region, using Cellular Automata (CA) model. To achieve this, the GlobeLand30 datasets from years 2000 and 2010 were used to obtain LULC maps, which were utilized for modeling and prediction. Change analysis and prediction for LULC scenario for 2030 were performed using LCM and CA_Markov chain modeling. The results show a substantial growth of artificial surfaces, which will cause further reductions in cultivated land, grassland, shrubland, wetland, and waterbodies. There was no appreciable impact of change for bare land, as its initial extent of cover later disappeared completely. Additionally, artificial surfaces/urban growth in Lagos expanded to the neighboring towns and localities in Ogun State during the study period, and it is expected that such growth will be higher in 2030. Lastly, the study findings will be beneficial to urban planners and land use managers in making key decisions regarding urban growth and improved land use management in Nigeria.

Geospatial Information Systems (GIS) can provide a great environment for using machine learning algorithm for spatial data such as satellite images. Integrating this functionality with artificial intelligence algorithms for analyzing spatial data enables us to predict challenging disasters such as deforestation. Deforestation as an environmental problems has been recorded the most serious threat to environmental diversity and one of the main components of land-use change. In this paper, we investigate spatial distribution of deforestation using artificial neural networks and satellite imagery. We modeled deforestation process using various factors in determining the relationship between deforestation and environmental and socioeconomic factors. Hence, for this purpose, the proximity to roads and habitats, fragmentation of the forest, height from sea level, slope, and soil type are considered in the model. In this research, we modeled land cover changes (forests) to predict deforestation using an artificial neural network due to its significant potential for the development of nonlinear complex models. The procedure involves image registration and error correction, image classification, preparing deforestation maps, determining layers, and designing a multi-layer neural network to predict deforestation. The satellite images for this study are of a region in Hong Kong which are captured from 2012 to 2016. The results of the study demonstrate that neural networks approach for predicting deforestation can be utilized and its outcomes show the areas that destroyed during the research period.

: Kentucky is one of the largest coal producing states and surface coal mining has led to changes in natural land cover, soil loss, and water quality. This study explored relationships between actively mined and reclaimed areas and vegetation change and water quality parameters. The study site evaluated 58 watersheds with Landsat-derived variables (reclamation age, mining percentage, reclaimed forest percentage, and reclaimed woods percentage) as well as topographic variables (such as elevation, slope, drainage density, and infiltration). Water samples were collected in spring (n=9), summer (n=14), and fall (n=58) 2017 to study changes in water quality variables (SO42-, alkalinity, conductivity, Ca2+, Mg2+, Mn2+, Al3+, and Fe2+,Fe3+) in response to changes in land cover. Pearson correlation analyses indicated conductivity has strong to very strong relationships with other variables of water quality variables related to coal mining (except Al3+, Fe2+,Fe3+, Mn2+, elevation, slope, and drainage density) and land cover variables. In addition, separate multivariate regression analyses were performed with conductivity values based on samples collected in the fall. First, conductivity response to mining percentage, reclamation age and topographic variables were examined (adjusted R2=0.818, p < 0.01). Next, vegetation cover change parameters were added to the same model, which yielded slightly improved R2 (adjusted R2 = 0.826, p < 0.01). Finally, reclamation age and mining percentage were used to explain the quantity of reclaimed forested areas as a percentage of watersheds. The model was significant (p < 0.01) with an adjusted R2 value of 0.641. Results suggest that the quantity (area as a percentage) of reclaimed forests may be a predictor of mining percentage and reclamation age. This study indicated that conductivity is a predictable water quality indicator that is highly associated with Coal Mine Related Stream Chemistry in areas where agriculture and urban development are limited. These findings may help the scientific community and key state and federal agencies improve their understanding of water quality attributes in watersheds affected by coal mining as well as refining land reclamation practices.

Based on the recorded watershed characteristics, the future conditions on the basin system can be predicted using a different method. In this study, dynamic land-use change and its impacts on the streamflow for the Dabus watershed were predicted using ANN-CA based method. The model performance for accurate prediction of the future land-use change on the Dabus River watershed has been checked by validation of the simulated value with the actual value, hence the overall kappa value (k) = 0.83 for the simulated 2016-LULC validated with actual 2016-LULC. Then, 2026-LULC was predicted based on the 2004 and 2009-LULC. The streamflow for the case of 2004 and 2009-LULC has been simulated using the SWAT model. The value of NSE = 0.87 and 0.90 was attained during validation of simulated streamflow for 2004 and 2009-LULC data cases, respectively. The agreement of simulated value of streamflow with the observed data is indicated as R2 = 0.91 and 0.96 for 2004-LULC and 2009-LULC. The effects of the dynamic land-use change on streamflow for the predicted land use(2026-LULC) catchment were evaluated by T-test analysis. Hence, T-stat =0.04 and -0.002 in the case of simulated streamflow used 2004-LULC and 2009-LULC, respectively compared with simulated value using 2026-LULC.

Introduction. Environmental Health in a Global World at New York University was re-designed as a class participatory effort, challenging undergraduate students to understand environmental hazards and the resultant adverse health outcomes by embracing the inherent complexity of environmental risks and proposing solutions. Methods. Following introductory lectures, students are placed into teams and assigned a specific perspective, or avatar, which includes learning to see the challenge from the perspective of a technical expert such as a biologist, an engineer, or an anthropologist. The teams then design specific systems maps to visualize the complex interactions that lead to adverse health outcomes after a given environmental exposure. The maps highlight potential leverage points, where relatively minor interventions can provide a disproportionate benefit in health outcomes. The teams then explore potential interventions and identify the potential unintended consequences of those actions, develop and advocate for innovative new strategies to mitigate risk and improve outcomes. Results and Discussion. Over the past 5 years we have taught this methodology to over 680 students with strong, student-oriented results. The teams created and presented more than 100 strategies, addressing a diverse set of environmental challenges that include water contamination, gun violence, air pollution, environmental justice, health security, and climate change. Developing the strategies helped the students understand environmental threats in a more holistic way, provided them with some agency in finding solutions, and offered an opportunity for them to improve their presentation skills. The responses in course evaluations have been enthusiastic, with many students reporting a deep impact on their college experience.

Land use/land cover (LULC) and climate changes are two main factors directly affecting hydrologic conditions. However, very few studies in Vietnam have investigated changes in hydrological process under the impact of climate and land use changes on a basin scale. The objective of this study is to assess the individual and combined impacts of land use and climate changes on hydrological processes for the Nam Rom river basin, Northwestern Viet Nam using Remote Sensing (RS) and Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) model. SWAT model was used for hydrological process simulation. Results indicated that SWAT proved to be a powerful tool in simulating the impacts of land use and climate change on catchment hydrology. The change in historical land use between 1992 and 2015 strongly contributed to increasing hydrological processes (ET, percolation, ground water, and water yield), whereas, climate change led to significant decrease of all hydrological components. The combination of land use and climate changes significantly reduced surface runoff (-16.9%), ground water (-5.7%), water yield (-9.2%), and sediment load (-4.9%). Overall climatic changes had more significant effect on hydrological components than land use changes in the Nam Rom river basin during the 1992–2015. Under impacts of projected land use and climate change scenarios in 2030 on hydrological process of the upper Nam Rom river basin indicate that ET and surface flow are more sensitive to the changes in land use and climate in the future. In conclusion, the findings of this study will basic knowledge of the effects of climate and land-use changes on the hydrology for future development of integrated land use and water management practices in Nam Rom river basin.

Based on the land use data of Qingmei Harbor Mangrove Nature Reserve in Sanya, China, in 2009, 2015 and 2022, this paper utilizes the PLUS model to predict the land use changes in the region in 2035 under three development scenarios, namely natural development, urban construction and ecological protection. The results of the study show that the area of building land in this region increased rapidly from 2009-2015, and the corresponding cropland, parkland and arbor forest land as a whole showed a different degree of decline, while the expansion of the area of manmade land, such as building land, basically came to a standstill after 2015. However, the mangrove area in this region has maintained a stable growth trend from 2009-2022. The results of multi-scenario modeling of land in this region showed that the area of building land, unutilized land, and artificial land such as parkland and grassland increased the most under the urban development scenario. In the ecological protection scenario, the area of ecological land, such as arbor forest land and river and lagoon, increases significantly. However, there is no significant increase in the area of mangrove forests under any of the three development scenarios. At present, the task of “returning ponds to wetlands” has been basically completed in this area, and the space for large-scale expansion of mangrove forests in Qingmei Harbor is limited in the future, and the focus of subsequent work should be shifted to the enhancement of the quality and function of mangrove ecosystems.

This study assessed farmers’ perception of climate change, estimated the determinants of, and evaluated the relationship among adaptation practices using the multivariate probit model. A survey in 300 agricultural households was carried out covering 10 sample districts considering five agro-ecological zones and a vulnerability index. Four adaptation choices (change in planting date, crop variety, crop type and investment in irrigation) were deemed as outcome variables and socioeconomic, demographic, institutional, farm-level and perceptions variables were deployed as explanatory variables. Their marginal effects were determined for three climatic variables—temperature, precipitation and drought. Age, gender and education of head of household, credit access, farm area, rain-fed farming and tenure, are found to be more influential compared to other factors. All four adaptation-options are found to be complimentary to each other. Importantly, the intensity of impact of dependent variables in different models, and for available adaptation-options, are found to be unequal. Therefore, policy options and support facilities should be devised according to climatic variables and adaptation options to achieve superior results.

Global climate change primarily affects the spatiotemporal variation of physical quantities such as relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, ambient temperature, and notably, precipitation levels. Accurate precipitation predictions remain elusive, necessitating tools for detailed spatiotemporal analysis to better understand climate impacts on the environment, agriculture, and society. This study compares three learning models: ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), RF-R (Random Forest Regression), and LSTM-NN (Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network), utilizing monthly precipitation data (in millimeters) from 757 locations in Boyacá, Colombia. The LSTM-NN model outperformed others, precisely replicating precipitation observations in both training and testing datasets, significantly reducing the root mean square error (RMSE) with average monthly deviations of approximately 19 mm per location. Evaluation metrics (RMSE, MAE, R², MSE) underscore the LSTM model’s robustness and accuracy in capturing precipitation patterns. Consequently, the LSTM model was chosen to predict precipitation over a 16-month period starting from August 2023, offering a reliable tool for future meteorological forecasting and planning in the region.

Dioscorea composita is a plant native to México and Central America with a high concentration of diosgenin precursors. Currently, México is one of the two most important countries producers of this yam; however, climate change is altering the environmental conditions of its natural habits, threatening its preservation and productivity. This is why this research was focused to characterize the eco-geography of D. composita and predict its potential geographic distribution under climate change scenarios in México-Central America. A collection of 408 geo-referenced accessions was used to determine its climatic adaptation, ecological descriptors, and the current and future potential geographic distribution, which was modeled with MaxEnt model through the Kuenm R-package. For future climate scenarios, an ensemble of the GCMs HadGEM-ES and CCSM4 was used. Results showed that D. composita adapts to warm humid and very humid agro-climates and that the most contributing variables for its presence are annual and seasonal moisture availability indices, seasonal photoperiod, annual thermal range, Bio14 and Bio11. The year 2050 RCP 4.5 climate scenario would contract the potential distribution of D. composita, whilst the 2050 RCP 8.5 scenario would expand it, indicating that this species could be a good crop option under this scenario of emissions.

Low carbon cities are increasingly forming a distinct strand of sustainability literature. Models have been developed to measure the performance of low carbon cities. The purpose of this paper is to formulate a strategy-based model to evaluate current performance and predict future conditions of low carbon cities. It examines the dynamic interrelationships between key performance indicators (KPIs), induces changes to city plan targets and then instantly predicts the outcome of these changes. Designed generic and flexible, the proposed model shows how low carbon targets could be used to guide the transformation of low carbon cities under four strategies: (1) passive intervention, (2) problem solving, (3) trend modifying and (4) opportunity seeking. Further, the model has been applied to 17 cities and then tested on 5 cities: London, New York, Barcelona, Dubai and Istanbul. The paper concludes with policy implications to realign city plans and support low carbon innovation.

Several sun models suggest the radioactive balance where the concentration of greenhouse gases and the albedo effect are related to the Earth's surface temperature. There is a considerable increment of greenhouse gases due to anthropogenic activities. Climate change correlates with this alteration in the atmosphere and an increase in surface temperature. Efficient forecasting of climate change and its impacts of 1.5°C global warming above pre-industrial levels could be helpful to respond to the threat of c.c. and develop sustainably. Many studies have predicted the temperature change in the coming years. The global community has to create a model that can realize good predictions to ensure the best way to deal with the warming. Thus, we propose a finite-time thermodynamic (FTT) approach in the present work. The FTT can solve problems such as the faint young sun paradox. In addition, we use different machine learning models to evaluate our method and compare the experimental prediction and results.

In the last decades droughts, deforestation and wildfires have become recurring phenomena that have affected both human activities and natural ecosystems in Amazonia. The time an ecosystem requires to recover from carbon losses is a crucial metric to evaluate disturbance impacts on forests. However, the factors influencing and controlling the recovery time and its spatiotemporal patterns at the regional scale are still poorly understood. In this study, we combined forest growth model, remote sensing and field plots, to map Amazonia-wide (300-ha resolution) impact and recovery time of aboveground biomass (AGB) after drought, fire and a combination of logging and fire. Our simulated results indicate that AGB decreases by 4%, 19% and 46% in forests disturbed by drought, fire and logging + fire, respectively, with an average AGB recovery time of 27 years for drought, 44 years for burned and 63 years for logged + burned areas and with maximum values reaching 184 years in areas of high fire intensity. Our findings provide two major insights in the spatial and temporal patterns of drought and wildfire in the Amazon: 1) the recovery time of the forests takes longer in the southeastern part of the basin, and, 2) as droughts and wildfires become more frequent – since the intervals between the disturbances is getting shorter than forest regeneration – potentially causing a long-lasting damage in these fragile ecosystems and a permanent degradation.

The expansion of concrete subjected to extreme elevated temperature is linked with intricate micro-structural variations, such as the transformation of the constituent phases. This study proposes a model to predict the thermal expansion of cement paste and concrete considering micro-structural changes under elevated temperatures ranging from 20°C to 800°C. The model presented can consider characteristics of various aggregates in the calculation of thermal expansion for concrete. The model is a combination of a multi-scale stoichiometric model and a multi-scale composite model. At the cement paste level, the model satisfactorily predicted a test result. At concrete level, upper bounds from the model were matched relatively well with test results by previous researcher. If the mechanical properties, such as elastic modulus (E), Poisson’s ratio (ν), and thermal deformation, of the aggregates used in concrete are given, it is likely that the model will reasonably predict experimental results.

Prunus armeniaca L. is the native species of cultivated apricot, which is important information for studying the origin, succession pattern, pest control, sustainable development of biodiversity of economic tree species of the genus Apricot, etc. However, with global climate change and increasingly intense human activities, the survival environment of Prunus armeniaca L. is under serious stress, and exploring the potential survival space of Prunus armeniaca L. is an important way to protect the health and development of Prunus armeniaca L.. Exploring the potential living space of Prunus armeniaca L. is an important way to protect the healthy development of Prunus armeniaca L. The Yili River Valley is a typical distribution area of Prunus armeniaca L. . Exploring the potential distribution suitable area of Prunus armeniaca L. in the Yili River Valley and analyzing its future change trend can provide scientific guidance for the protection, development, and utilization of Prunus armeniaca L.. Based on the Geographic Information System software platform combined with the MaxEnt Model, we simulated the potential distribution areas and the degree of adaptation of Prunus armeniaca L. in the Yili River Valley, and predicted the potential distribution changes of Prunus armeniaca L. in the future under different situations. Based on the above methods, the following results were obtained: (1) The MaxEnt Model simulated the geographic distribution of Prunus armeniaca L. with high accuracy and an AUC value of 0.969, and the area of the currently suitable area for Prunus armeniaca L. in the Yili River Valley was about 10407.77 km2, accounting for about 18.45% of the overall land area of the Yili River Valley; the area of the highly suitable area was about 1380.9 km², accounting for about 13.26%, the area of the medium suitable zone is about 2830.15km², and the area of low suitable zone is about 6196.05km². (2) The maximum increase in the total area of the suitable zone under the future low-radiation forcing scenario is 11.49%, and the minimum increase under the future medium-high forcing scenario is 4.94%. (3) The overall migration was in the southwest direction, with the largest migration angle under the SSP245 scenario and the largest migration distance under the SSP585 scenario. Under the background of future climate change, there is a tendency for the potential habitat of Prunus armeniaca L. in the Yili River Valley to expand from low altitude to high altitude, and altitude is the dominant geographic factor influencing the distribution of Prunus armeniaca L.. By simulating and studying the potential geographic distribution of Prunus armeniaca L. in the Yili River Valley under the background of climate change, we can reveal the response mechanism between the geographic distribution of Prunus armeniaca L. and the natural environment, which can provide scientific guidance and data support for the exploitation and protection of Prunus armeniaca L. in the future.

Servitization or productization, indicating evolution from product to service economy or vice-versa, can be considered as a successful strategy to gain competitiveness based on novel combination of products and services. To decrease the risks of servitization and to support the sustainable development of its main outcome, being Product Service System (PSS), it is required not only to have a clear and common understanding of the core business and processes but also to share the same definitions on (PSS) concepts as the main outcome of servitization. For this purpose, managers could be supported by abstract models with a limited number and high ratio of known concepts in the early stages of PSS development. Through an extensive literature review on this subject, followed by a structured conceptualization approach and discussions with domain experts, this paper proposes a Conceptual Model (PSS-CM). To validate the results, PSS-CM and its elements were discussed in several iterations, from both academic and industrial points of view, in the frame of a European research project. In the frame of this project, a case study was also performed to illustrate the instantiation of PSS-CM.

In addition to changes in the amount of rain, changes in land use upstream are considered a factor that directly affects the maximum runoff flow in a basin, especially in areas that have experienced floods and flash floods. This research article presents the application of the SWAT model to assess runoff in areas that have experienced flash floods, in order to analyze the proportion of land use change to the maximum runoff. Study areas that had experienced flash floods were in 3 basins in Thailand (Lam Saphung Basin, Phrom River Basin, and Chern River Basin Part 1 which is a subbasin of the Nam Chi River Basin). This study analyzed two main factors that influence runoff in the river basin: Changes in rainfall and changes in land use by considering 2 simulation situations.: (1) Changes in land use affecting runoff assessed by considering land use maps in 2006, 2008, 2010, 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2021 when using rainfall data only in the year 2021 for all cases, and (2) Changes in the amount of rainfall influencing runoff by considering the rainfall record in 2006, 2008, 2010, 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2021 when using the land use data only in the year 2021 for all cases. The results of the study found that the SWAT model can be effectively applied to estimate annual runoff in areas that have experienced flash floods under 8 parameters with R2 values of 0.74, 0.82 and 0.74 for the Lam Saphung River Basin and the Phrom River Basin and the Chern River Basin Part 1 respectively. In addition, it was found that the proportion of land use changes that involved changes from forest areas to residential areas was the greatest from 2008 to 2010 in the Phrom River Basin and Chern River Basin Part 1. This resulted in an increase in the maximum runoff amount of 77.78% and 46.87%, respectively. When land use was constant, it was found that the rainfall in 2010, which was the highest, also had the greatest impact on the runoff in all 3 areas.

Predicting change from multivariate time series has relevant applications ranging from medical to engineering fields. Multisensory stimulation therapy in patients with dementia aims to change the patient’s behavioral state. For example, patients who exhibit a baseline of agitation may be paced to change their behavioral state to relaxed. This study aims to predict changes in behavioral state from the analysis of the physiological and neurovegetative parameters to support the therapist during the stimulation session. In order to extract valuable indicators for predicting changes, both handcrafted and learned features were evaluated and compared. The handcrafted features were defined starting from the CATCH22 feature collection, while the learned ones were extracted using a Temporal Convolutional Network, and the behavioral state was predicted through Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Auto-Encoder, operating jointly. From the comparison with the state-of-the-art, the learned features-based approach exhibits superior performance with accuracy rates of up to 99.42% with a time window of 70 seconds and up to 98.44% with a time window of 10 seconds.

In Korea, laver (Gim) is the leading traded marine product and an important food source, accounting for 82.0% of the world’s exports. Laver exports reached $100 million in 2010 and steadily increased to $600 million in 2020. An increase in laver exports improves the income of laver farmers and promotes the growth of fisheries. However, marine algae are vulnerable to climate change. In this study, we aimed to predict changes in laver production due to climate change using environmental variables, including water temperature, rainfall, and sunlight duration. The results showed that water temperature considerably affected laver production; when water temperature increased by 1 °C, production decreased by 13.78% (t) in the same month. By contrast, when sunlight duration and rainfall increased by 1 h and 1 mm, respectively, 1 month before harvesting laver, production increased by 0.32% (t-1) and 0.13% (t-1), respectively. Using four scenarios based on climate change published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in a modeling exercise, we found that laver production in 2100 in Wando in Korea may decline by 73.3% owing to water temperature changes (based on 2020 production), threatening food security. Accordingly, short-, mid-, and long-term countermeasures are needed for sustainable laver aquaculture. Appropriate water temperature (21–22 °C) during seeding is necessary to control environmental variables, based on scientific data and activation of land-based seeding methods. Moreover, mid- and long-term countermeasures should include development of high-temperature resistant laver seeds, identification of suitable new laver aquaculture grounds, and research on seeds that can adapt to climate change.

Affected by the COVID-19 and the international development pattern, the international environment has undergone profound changes, and enterprises, as the main body of activities rushing in the front line of production and operation and the main battlefield of market competition, are facing various risk challenges in the domestic and international markets. For theoretical research, the impact of organizational change on employee innovation performance has become a key issue in organizational behavior and human resource management research. However, the influence mechanism of organizational change on employee innovation performance is still unclear. In this study, we examine whether, how, and when organizational change increases employee innovation performance in accordance with job demands-resource theory, as well as the effect of work pressure and work engagement on employee innovation performance. Data from 289 employees at three time points are examined. The results show that: (1) Organizational change negatively affects employee innovation performance through work pressure, i.e., work pressure mediates the impact of organizational change on employee innovation performance. (2) Organizational change positively affects employee innovation performance through work engagement, i.e., work engagement mediates the impact of organizational change on employee innovation performance. (3) Organizational identity plays a moderating role between organizational change and work pressure and work engagement, respectively, and there is a moderating effect in the process of mediation of work pressure and work engagement. The findings of this study provide important insights into how and when organizational change influences employee innovation performance.

With the rapid development of satellite remote sensing technology, the volume of image datasets in many application areas is growing exponentially and the demand for Land-Cover and Land-Use change remote sensing data is growing rapidly. It is thus becoming hard to efficiently and intelligently retrieve the change information that users need from massive image databases. In this paper, content-based image retrieval is successfully applied to change detection and a content-based remote sensing image change information retrieval model is introduced. First, the construction of a new model framework for change information retrieval in a remote sensing database is described. Then, as the target content cannot be expressed by one kind of feature alone, a multiple-feature integrated retrieval model is proposed. Thirdly, an experimental prototype system that was set up to demonstrate the validity and practicability of the model is described. The proposed model is a new method of acquiring change detection information from remote sensing imagery and so can reduce the need for image pre-processing, deal with problems related toseasonal changes as well as other problems encountered in the field of change detection. Meanwhile, the new model has important implications for improving remote sensing image management and autonomous information retrieval.

Organic carbon (OC) accumulation in soil mitigates greenhouse gases emission and improves soil health. We aimed to quantify the dynamics of OC stock in soils and to justify technologies that allow annual increasing OC stock in the arable soil layer by 4‰. We based the study on a field experiment established in 1936 in the 9-field crop rotation with a fallow on Chernozem in European Russia. The RothC version 26.3 was used for the reproducing and forecasting OC dynamics. In all fertilizer applications at FYM background, there was a decrease in the OC stock with preferable loss of active OC, except the period 1964-71 with 2-5‰ annual OC increase. The model estimated the annual C input in the arable soil layer as 1,900 kg·ha-1. For increasing OC stocks by 4‰ per year, one should raise input to 2400 kg·ha-1. Simulation was made for 2016-2090 using climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Crop rotation without fallowing provided an initial increase of 3‰ and 6‰ of stocks in the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios accordingly, followed by a loss in accumulated OC. Simulation demonstrates difficulties to increase OC concentration in Chernozems under intensive farming and potential capacity to rise OC stock through yield management.

This study applied the principal-agent model to interpret the impact of routine biased technological change (RBTC) on the structure of employment relations. RBTC increases the proportion of routine tasks in work activities, due to their fixed procedural nature, routine tasks reduce uncertainties in the principal-agent problem. Employers, being able to predict work contingencies and to verify employee efforts, find the benefit of offering standard labor contracts is reduced, thereby increasing the ratio of non-standard employment. This study applied logistic regression based on the Program for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC) survey data to verify this framework. The results indicated that with each standard deviation increased in routine task intensity, the odds ratio of non-standard employment increased by 13.6%. This effect was heterogeneous in various institutional contexts. This study expends the toolkit for analyzing employment relations problems, and extends the scope of RBTC to employment relations.

Creating new business models is crucial for the implementation of clean technologies for industrial decarbonization. With incomplete knowledge of market processes and uncertain conditions, assessing the prospects of a technology-based business model is challenging. This study combines business model innovation, system dynamics and exploratory model analysis to identify new business opportunities in a context of socio-technical transition and assess their prospects through simulation experiments. Furthermore, insights are visualized in a roadmap to coordinate action among the actors involved. This combination of methods is applied to the case of a business model aiming at ensuring stability of the electrical grid by centralizing the management of flexible loads in industrial companies. A system dynamics model was set up to simulate the diffusion of flexible electrification technologies. Through scenario definition and sensitivity analysis, the influence of internal and external factors on diffusion was assessed. Results highlight the central role of energy costs and customer perception. The chosen combination of methods allowed the formulation of concrete recommendation for coordinated action, explicitly accounting for the various sources of uncertainty. We suggest testing this approach in further business model innovation contexts.

Creating new business models is crucial for the implementation of clean technologies for industrial decarbonization. With incomplete knowledge of market processes and uncertain conditions, assessing the prospects of a technology-based business model is challenging. This study combines business model innovation, system dynamics and exploratory model analysis to identify new business opportunities in a context of socio-technical transition and assess their prospects through simulation experiments. Furthermore, insights are visualized in a roadmap to coordinate action among the actors involved. This combination of methods is applied to the case of a business model aiming at ensuring stability of the electrical grid by centralizing the management of flexible loads in industrial companies. A system dynamics model was set up to simulate the diffusion of flexible electrification technologies. Through scenario definition and sensitivity analysis, the influence of internal and external factors on diffusion was assessed. Results highlight the central role of energy costs and customer perception. The chosen combination of methods allowed the formulation of concrete recommendation for coordinated action, explicitly accounting for the various sources of uncertainty. We suggest testing this approach in further business model innovation contexts.

Change orders have received considerable attention from researchers thus far, but none have considered pricing strategies of change orders through the interaction between general contractors and subcontractors. Previous studies found that contractors’ opportunistic bidding considering beyond-contractual reward (BCR) in the execution stage can be reduced by improving the construction management system and strengthening the supervision of contractors’ performance. However, the BCR remains in ecology of construction engineering. This study proposes an integrated evolutionary game theory-system dynamics model (ET-SD model) and simulates the pricing strategy of change orders between general contractors and subcontractors to explore the root cause of BCR phenomenon. Sensitivity analysis on the evolutionary dynamics of payoff is explored. Results reveal that change orders with BCR maintain Nash equilibrium and evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) unless changing the payoff structure between general and subcontractors’ pricing strategies. This study presents important managerial insights from the evolutionary game perspectives, nature of change orders, and payoff of the alternative.

Globally, the intensity and irregularity of weather and climate extremes are increasing due to climate change. In Ethiopia, the occurrence of extreme events has been increasing, reporting severe impacts on environment which led to losses of lives and livelihood of societies. In this study, Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId) was used to analysis heat wave magnitude in the Middle Awash Basin of Ethiopia. Gauge data obtained from Ethiopian Meteorological Institution (EMI) for 1981-2022 period and the future projection was taken from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under two socioeconomic pathways (SSP 2 and SSP 5) scenarios. The findings clearly showed that the area aggregated annual temperature anomaly increasing each year, 2015 was one of the warmest year on record with an anomaly of +1.8 °C. Severe to extreme heat wave recorded particularly during the last 10 years. For the future projection, under SSP 2-4.5 forcing scenario, the annual average air temperature projected to be warmer, which increasing 1.7 ℃ to 1.8 ℃ during mid-century and 2.3 ℃ to 2.4 ℃ end of century. Meanwhile, for SSP 5-8.5 forcing, the projection indicated an increment of 2.2 ℃ to 2.5 ℃ under mid-century and 4.4 ℃ to 4.8 ℃ end of century. Concerning the severity of heat wave, extreme to very extreme heat wave projected under SSP 2-4.5 forcing scenario and supper extreme heat wave projected under SSP 5-8.5 forcing scenario, respectively. The increase in extreme events may have a negative impact on health, water availability and food security. Therefore, the result of this study are essential for making wise decisions and for developing suitable strategies for climate change adaptation and mitigation that could minimize the risk of unusually extreme weather events.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was declared a pandemic in March 2020, which led to the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions that had inadvertent physical, mental and social effects. The purpose of this study was to examine the experiences and responses of Canadians to these interventions on Twitter using the Kübler-Ross Change Curve (KRCC) during the first six months of the pandemic. Tweets were analyzed using sentiment analysis, thematic content analysis and KRCC. The findings highlight that many Canadians attempted to adapt to the changes but had a predominantly negative outlook on policies due to the financial and social repercussions

Land use and land cover (LULC) datasets for Jinan in 1992, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2011, 2017, and 2022 were developed from Landsat images using the Random Forest (RF) classification approach. The relationships between social-economic, political factors and time-series LULC data were exam-ined for the periods between 1992 and 2022. The results showed the effectiveness of using the RF classification method for LULC classification with time series of Landsat images. Combined with driving forces analysis, our research can effectively explain the detailed LULC change tra-jectories corresponding to different stages and give new insights into Jinan LULC change pat-terns. The results show a significant increase in impervious surface which opposite change to bare land which experienced a huge decline declined by 95%, due to urbanization and rapid in-crease of population. The driving forces behind these changes are related to population growth, economic development, and climate change. Moreover, the present research employed Principal Components Analysis (PCA) methodology in order to understand the relative significance of disparate driving factors. The analysis results prove that the economy (population, GDP) and climate change were the primary factors that have an obvious impact on land use/land cover changes and that the driving factors for impervious surface, bare land, woodland, farmland, and water were distinct. Government policies also have a substantial impact on LULC change as well, such as the Construction of Harmonious Jinan (COHJ). The results were helpful for better understanding the mechanisms of LULC change and can provide useful knowledge for effective land resource management and planning.

Abstract: Purpose – In this article we lay out the change management practices adopted by financial firms in small states within the Eurozone. We determine whether these organisations have the ability to identify triggers for change (Red Flags) and subject them to eight thematic elements to understand whether management practices can continue to exist and support operational environments, even when unexpected circumstances affect their day to day operations and processes. In doing this we examine the extent to which the eight thematic elements from the model designed by Dalli Gonzi, (2019) (The Dali Model) can assist organisations in risk identification and business continuity planning. Design/methodology/approach – A self-administered questionnaire purposely designed for this study was administered to personnel working in internal controls within financial institutions of small Eurozone states. The participants were asked to grade statements using a 5-point Likert scale, ‘1’ being ‘totally disagree’ and ‘5’ being totally agree’ to the statement posed under the thematic elements forming the basis of the Dali Model. Findings – Factor analysis provided support for the eight hypothesised dimensions of the decision-making model: connection, capacity, governance, network, policy, training, process improvement, standards. Originality/value – The study provides a better understanding and support of “best practice” in change management through an understanding and assessment of the eight factors that are the basis of this model. It addresses practical recommendations to ensure application to a wider frame of use.

Species have shown their habital variations in responding to climate change, especially during the spring and summer spawning seasons. The species distribution model (SDM) is considered the most favorable tool to study the potential effects of climate change on species distribution. Therefore, we developed the ensemble SDM to predict the changes in species distribution of Portunus trituberculatus among different seasons in 2050 and 2100 under the climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results of SDM indicate that the distribution of this species will move northward and have obviouse seasonal variations. Meanwhile, the suitable habitat for the species will be significantly reduced in summer, with loses rates ranging from 45.23% (RCP4.5) to 88.26% (RCP.8.5) by 2100s. Habitat reduction will mainly occur in the East China Sea and southern part of the Yellow Sea, while there will be a small increase in the northern Bohai Sea. These findings will be important to manage the ecosystem and fishery, provide an information forecast of this species in the future, and maintain species diversity if the seawater temperature rises.

Land use and cover change (LUCC) is an important method to investigate the causes of global environment change. We utilized the emergy ecological footprint (EEF) model to construct a land-use change model to be used as a systematic measuring tool for monitoring sustainable development trends. In particular, we estimated the eco-security of the Cing-jing region as a case study so that responsible agencies can use it to maintain a balance between ecological preservation and tourism development. The results indicated the following: First, the ecological environment of the Cing-jing region satisfied the safety standard in 2008–2014; however, the related indices increased considerably. Second, the grey model predicted a decrease in 2015–2024 ecological carrying capacities of Cing-jing and a large increase in capita EFs, resulting in a larger ecological deficit and higher EFI. The eco-security from 2015–2024 was higher compared to 7 years ago and is predicted to reach the Grade 2 intermediate level in 2022; thus the Cing-jing region is gradually becoming ecologically unsustainable. Strengths of our study included the use of EEF theory in a quantitative analysis of slope lands for the effective evaluation of ecological security. Finally, we expanded our research to include ecological security issues.

The watershed hydrologic conditions in the Madre de Dios (MDD) basin in the Peruvian Amazon have been irreversibly impacted by deforestation and changes in land use cover. These changes have also had detrimental effects on the geomorphology, water quality, and aquatic habitat within the basin. However, there is a scarcity of hydrological modeling studies in this area primarily due to the limited availability of hydrometeorological data. The primary objective of this study was to examine how deforestation impacts the hydrological conditions in the MDD basin. By implementing the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, this study determined that replacing 12% of the evergreen broadleaf forest area with bare land resulted in an significant increase in surface runoff by 38% monthly, a reduction of evapotranspiration by 1% annually, and an average monthly streamflow increase of 12%. Changes in spatial patterns reveal that the primary impacted watershed is the Inambari River subbasin, a significant tributary of the Madre de Dios River. This area experiences an annual average surge of 187% in surface runoff generation while witnessing an annual average reduction of 8% in evapotranspiration.These findings have important implications, as they can contribute to instances of flooding and extreme inundation events, which have already occurred in the MDD region.

The most extensive urban growths in the next 30 years are expected to occur in developing countries. Lagos, Nigeria - Africa’s second most populous megacity- is a prime example. To achieve more sustainable and resilient cities, there is a need for modeling the urban growth patterns of major cities and analyzing their implications. In this study, the urban growth of Lagos state was modeled using the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network for the transition modeling and the Markov Chain analysis for the change prediction, achieving a model accuracy of 81.8%. An innovative visual validation of the model results using the ArcGIS was combined with kappa correlation statistics. The results show that by 2031, built-up areas will be the most spatially extensive LULC class in the study area with percentage coverage of 34.1% as opposed to 9% in 1986. The coverage of bare areas is also expected to increase by 53% between 2016 and 2031. Conversely, 24.9% and 68.3% loss of forestlands and wetlands respectively, are expected between 2016 and 2031. In view of the 11^th goal of SDGs which focuses on achieving sustainable cities and communities, the objectives of African Union’s Agenda 2063, and based on the urban growth trends observed, the study recommends a prioritization of vertical expansion as opposed to the current horizontal urban growth trends in the study area.

Most petrochemical plants still maintain a Proportional-Integral-Differential controller(PID) system, which is a feedback control system. However, gradually, the PID system is being extended and introduced to the Advanced Process Controller (APC) system, which is an integrated control system of feedforward and feedback that predicts external influences in advance. In the process of conducting on-site plant tests and calculating APC model parameter for the application of APC systems, a problem arises that Model Parameter are implemented differently depending on the proficiency of APC engineers. To minimize this problem, a technique for estimating APC model parameter without a plant test is required. In order to estimate the APC model parameter, it is necessary to train on dynamic interval data. In this paper, we use statistical techniques such as PELT, Linear Kernel, and Radial Basis Function Kernel of Change Point Detection (CPD) to extract dynamic data with minimum Mean Absolute Error (MAE) from time series data of a real petrochemical plant. Then, the hyper parameter is fixed and the APC model parameter is estimated by learning the dynamic section data. By applying the estimated APC model parameter to the APC Model Tool and measuring the fitting rate, it was confirmed that it is possible to estimate the APC model parameter with excellent control performance without plant test.

The Congo River Basin is the second-largest watershed globally, flowing through nine countries before reaching the Atlantic Ocean. The Kasai River Basin (KARB), containing about one-fourth of Congo’s freshwater resources, plays a strategic role in sustaining navigation, food production, and hydroelectricity generation in Central Africa. A multi-model framework suited for data scarce regions is applied for climate change impacts on water availability in the KARB to propose effective development plans in the future. This includes consideration of two conceptual hydrological models calibrated using four reanalysis datasets and fed with bias-corrected outputs of 19 climate models under two future Representative Climate Pathways (RCPs). Changes in mean annual discharge in the KARB from -18% to +3% are projected depending on the considered modeling configuration. This shows the sensitivity of impact assessment to the choice of models as well as input data. Moreover, about 9%, 18%, and 13% decline in streamflow signatures (Q10, Q50 and Q90) are projected based on the ensemble of models under RCP 8.5. A decrease of 14% and 5% in annual hydropower potential of the mainstream is estimated under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. These changes in flows conditions should be considered in decision-making around constructing reservoirs and hydroelectricity generation.

An existing simplified simulation model of global climate, population, economy, and governance is extended, through statistical and other data analysis, to include several measures of human well-being and population displacement. The revised model is used to explore (in testing to the year 2060) vicious cycles and causal cascades that, some have warned, could lead to acceleration of climate change in the coming decades. Model scenario testing addresses two uncertainties, namely the strength of the effect of climate change on governance erosion, and the strength of the “heat trap” effect from physical tipping points such as ice loss and permafrost thaw. This testing indicates that a strong heat trap effect could very well accelerate climate change, but that even a strong governance erosion effect is unlikely to do so. Governance erosion would hurt human well-being but is probably not much of a climate threat per se. These results are tentative but point to the possibility of formally modeling causal cascades beyond what the larger climate models have done to date.

In this paper we illustrate a new, simple and complementary ground-based methodology to retrieve the vertically resolved atmospheric precipitation intensity through a synergy between measurements from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Micropulse Lidar network (MPLNET), an analytical model solution and ground-based disdrometer measurements. The presented results are obtained at two mid-latitude MPLNET permanent observational sites, located respectively at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, USA, and at the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain. The methodology is suitable to be applied to existing and/or future lidar/ceilometer networks with the main objective of either providing near-real time (3h latency) rainfall intensity measurements and/or to validate satellite missions, especially for critical light precipitation (<3 mm hr⁻¹).

Assessment of extreme events and climate change on reservoir inflow is important for water and power stressed countries. Projected climate is subject to uncertainties related to climate change scenarios and Global Circulation Models (GCMs’). Extreme climatic events will increase with the rise in temperature as mentioned in the AR5 of the IPCC. This paper discusses the consequences of climate change that include extreme events on discharge. Historical climatic and gauging data were collected from different stations within a watershed. The observed flow data was used for calibration and validation of SWAT model. Downscaling was performed on future GCMs’ temperature and precipitation data, and plausible extreme events were generated. Corrected climatic data was applied to project the influence of climate change. Results showed a large uncertainty in discharge using different GCMs’ and different emissions scenarios. The annual tendency of the GCMs’ is bi-vocal: six GCMs’ projected a rise in annual flow, while one GCM projected a decrease in flow. The change in average seasonal flow is more as compared to annual variations. Changes in winter and spring discharge are mostly positive, even with the decrease in precipitation. The changes in flows are generally negative for summer and autumn due to early snowmelt from an increase in temperature. The change in average seasonal flows under RCPs’ 4.5 and 8.5 are projected to vary from -29.1 to 130.7% and -49.4 to 171%, respectively. In the medium range (RCP 4.5) impact scenario, the uncertainty range of average runoff is relatively low. While in the high range (RCP 8.5) impact scenario, this range is significantly larger. RCP 8.5 covered a wide range of uncertainties, while RCP 4.5 covered a short range of possibilities. These outcomes suggest that it is important to consider the influence of climate change on water resources to frame appropriate guidelines for planning and management.

We are living in a business context characterized by change, which today behaves with an unprecedented intensity, driven by the technological revolution and increased competition. As a result, increasingly large and complex companies are facing profound transformation processes in which the role of the human factor and of managers in particular, due to their high capacity to impact the organization, is essential. In response to this reality, the literature has developed a large number of approaches from different areas of knowledge: from business economics to psychology, including technical disciplines. This article offers a classification of these approaches that provides an overview of research on the role of managers in change management.

One of the most problematic forms of nature protection in Poland relates to landscape parks. On the one hand, they include the most valuable landscapes; on the other hand, the areas within the landscape park still have economic uses. Therefore, the monitoring of landscape changes within landscape parks is necessary in order to properly manage these forms of protection. The main objective of the study was to monitor the scale and nature of landscape transformations within the boundaries of landscape parks in Poland during the period 2000–2018 and to assess the possibility of using the landscape change index (LCI) to monitor the intensity of landscape transformations within this type of protected area. Filling a gap in the research on landscape changes, I developed and verified the possibility of using LCI for monitoring the intensity of landscape changes using the example of 12 landscape parks in the Lower Silesia region. Preliminary analyses of the transformations within all landscape parks in Poland showed an upward trend, both in terms of the number of types of identified landscape changes as well as their area. In spite of the large diversity and degree of transformation in landscape parks, several dominant processes can be observed. The largest number and area of changes during each of the analyzed periods were found in transformations within forest landscapes (temporary and permanent deforestation and forest maturation), which constitute the dominant type of land cover within most of the landscape parks. In open landscapes, changes mainly relate to afforestation and natural succession in meadows, pastures and arable land, as well as the transformation of arable land into mining areas. Twelve case studies, covering all landscape parks of the Lower Silesia, have shown that the LCI is an excellent tool for monitoring the intensity of landscape changes, but it is dependent on the accuracy of the source data. The analyses confirmed that, during the study periods, the changes in all 12 Lower Silesian landscape parks were at a low level, but their particular intensification took place in the years 2012–2018. The highest LCI was found in the area where a natural disaster had occurred (air tornado), which destroyed huge areas of forest in landscape parks. After changes in the forest landscape, the most frequently identified type of change in 2006–2012 is the transformation of non-forest landscapes into forest landscapes. The main reason for such changes was the expansion of forest into abandoned arable land, meadows and pastures. The use of the Corine Land Cover database to calculate LCI and monitor the intensity of landscape change revealed a low usability of the database for the year 2000 and a high usability for data from 2006–2018.

Although, promotion of urbanization culture in recent decades has made inevitable development of cities in the world, however, the development can be guided in a direction that leave, to the extent possible, minimum socioeconomic and environmental impacts. For this, it is required to first forecast auto-spreading orientation of cities and suburbs in rural areas over time and then avoid shapeless growth of cities. This paper is an attempt to develop a dynamic hybrid model based on logistic regression (LR), Markov chain (MC), and cellular automata (CA) for prediction of future urban sprawl in fast-growing cities. The model was developed using 12 widely-used urban development criteria, whose significant coefficient was determined by logistic regression, and validated by relative operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The validated model was run in Guilan, a tourist province in northern Iran with a very high rate of urban development. For this, changes in the area of urban land use were detected over the period of 1989 to 2013 and then, future sprawl of the province was forecasted by the years 2025 and 2037. The analysis results revealed that the area of urban land use was increased by more than 1.7 % from 36012.5 ha in 1989 to 59754.8 ha in 2013, and the area of Caspian Hyrcanian forestland was reduced by 31628 ha. The results also predicted an alarming increase in the rate of urban development in the province by the years 2025 and 2037, during which urban land use is predicted to develop 0.9 % and 1.38 %, respectively. The development pattern is expected to be uneven and scattered, without following any particular direction. The development will occur close to the existing or newly-formed urban basements as well as around major roads and commercial areas. This development, if not controlled, will lead to the loss of 13863 ha of Hyrcanian forests and if the trend continues, 21013 ha of Hyrcanian forests and 20208 ha of Barren/open lands are expected to be destroyed by the year 2037. In general, the proposed model is an efficient tool for the support of urban planning decisions and facilitates the process of sustainable development of cities by providing decision-makers with an overview on future development of cities where the growth rate is very fast.

As recent history has shown, changing climate not only threatens to increase the spread of known disease, but also the emergence of new and dangerous phenotypes. This occurred most recently with West Nile virus: a virus previously known for mild febrile illness rapidly emerged to become a major cause of mortality and long-term disability throughout the world. As we move forward, into increasingly uncertain times, public health research must begin to incorporate a broader understanding of the determinants of disease emergence – what, how, why, and when. The increasing mainstream availability of high-quality open data and high-powered analytical methods presents promising new opportunities. Up to now, quantitative models of disease outbreak risk have been largely based on just a few key drivers, namely climate and large-scale climatic effects. Such limited assessments, however, often overlook key interacting processes and downstream determinants more likely to drive local manifestation of disease. Such pivotal determinants may include local host abundance, human behavioral variability, and population susceptibility dynamics. The results of such analyses can therefore be misleading in cases where necessary downstream requirements are not fulfilled. It is therefore important to develop models that include climate and higher-level climatic effects alongside the downstream non-climatic factors that ultimately determine individual disease manifestation. Today, few models attempt to comprehensively address such dynamics: up until very recently, the technology simply hasn’t been available. Herein, we present an updated overview of current perspectives on the varying drivers and levels of interactions that drive disease spread. We review the predominant analytical paradigms, discuss their strengths and weaknesses, and highlight promising new analytical solutions. Our focus is on the prediction of arboviruses, particularly West Nile virus, as these diseases represent the pinnacle of epidemiological complexity – solution to which would serve as an effective “gatekeeper”. We present the current state-of-the-art with respect to known drivers of arbovirus outbreak risk and severity, differentially highlighting the impact of climate and non-climatic drivers. The reality of multiple classes of drivers interacting at different geospatial and temporal scales requires advanced new methodologies. We therefore close out by presenting and discussing some promising new applications of AI. Given the reality of accelerating disease risks due to climate change, public health and other related fields must begin the process of updating their research programs to incorporate these much needed, new capabilities.

Climate change effect on human-living in verities of way such as health and food security. This study presents predicting crop yields, and production risk in the near future (2020-2029) in northern Thailand using coupling 1 km resolution of regional climate model which is downscaled using a conservative remapping method and the Decision Support System for the Transfer of Agrotechnology (DSSAT) modeling system. The accuracy of the climate and agricultural model was appropriate compared to the observations with Index of Agreement (IOA) in ranges of 0.65 - 0.89. The DSSAT modeling system predicts that rice, and maize production will decrease by 5% and 4% in northern Thailand. In addition, a short-term risk analysis of rice and maize production has shown that, in the context of climate change, maize production appears to be at a high risk of low production in the near future, while rice cultivation might be a low risk.

Users of meteorological forecasts are often faced with the question of whether to make a decision now based on the current forecast or whether to wait for the next and hopefully more accurate forecast before making the decision. One would imagine that the answer to this question should depend on the extent to which there is a benefit in making the decision now rather than later, combined with an understanding of how the skill of the forecast improves, and information about the possible size and nature of forecast changes. We extend the well-known cost-loss model for forecast-based decision making to capture an idealized version of this situation. We find that within this extended cost-loss model, the question of whether to decide now or wait depends on two specific aspects of the forecast, both of which involve probabilities of probabilities. For the special case of weather and climate forecasts in the form of normal distributions we derive a simulation algorithm, and equivalent analytical expressions, for calculating these two probabilities. We apply the algorithm to forecasts of temperature and find that the algorithm leads to better decisions relative to three simpler alternative decision-making schemes. Similar problems have been studied in many other fields, and we explore some of the connections.

This paper proposes a method to utilize weather and land cover models to generate future environmental scenarios, and presents the watershed models to simulate the hydrological impact on watershed-scale hydrology. The Weather Generator model and General Circulation Model were applied to produce rainfall and local temperature under different climate conditions, and the Conservation and Land Use and its Effects model was incorporated to simulate future land cover variability. The circumstances of future climate and land cover changes were used as inputs to drive the HEC-HMS rainfall runoff model for obtaining surface runoff in a mountainous area. The WASH123D model was then utilized for the entire watershed simulation. Modeling results were then examined to discuss hydrological impacts on three different time periods: near future (2020-2039), future (2050-2069), and distant future (2080-2099). The Fengshan Creek basin in northern Taiwan was selected as study site. Simulations results indicated that the influence of climate change revealed more relevant effects when compared to local land cover changes. The ground water levels tended to diminish as the land cover area changed. In addition, both river and groundwater levels reveal that it is drier in dry season and wetter in wet season in future.

While the importance of continuous monitoring of electrocardiographic (ECG) or photoplethysmographic (PPG) signals to detect cardiac anomalies is generally accepted in preventative medicine, there remain major barriers to its actual widespread adoption. Most notably, current approaches tend to lack real-time capability, exhibit high computational cost, and be based on restrictive modeling assumptions or require large amounts of training data. We propose a lightweight and model-free approach for the online detection of cardiac anomalies such as ectopic beats in ECG or PPG signals based on the change detection capabilities of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and nonparametric rank-based cumulative sum (CUSUM) control charts. The procedure is able to quickly detect anomalies without requiring the identification of fiducial points such as R-peaks and is computationally significantly less demanding than previously proposed SSA-based approaches. Therefore, the proposed procedure is equally well suited for standalone use and as an add-on to complement existing (e.g. heart rate (HR) estimation) procedures.

The main objective of this paper is to assess pro-environmental behavior, climate change perception, anxiety, hope and despair in different political orientations. Specific aims included to validate all the instruments; to assess whether the factor structure of the scales were valid across political orientations; to evaluate their reliability; to assess differences concerning age, gender and political orientation; to know the variables that explain pro-environment behavior; and to evaluate the moderating role of climate change perception, despair and hope in the relationship between climate change anxiety and pro-environmental behavior. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFAs), multi-group CFAs (to measurement invariance), multiple linear regressions and moderations were performed. Results showed that pro-environment behavior and climate change hope achieved the four levels of invariance across different political orientations; climate change anxiety achieved the three first levels of invariance; climate change perception and climate change despair achieved configural invariance. Climate change anxiety personal experience, climate change perception total, reality and consequences present higher values in left political orientation that in right or center. Climate change anxiety variables contribute most to explaining pro-environmental behaviors. Hope, despair and climate change perception consequences moderate de relationship between climate change anxiety and pro-environment behavior. These results open up new avenues of investigation, namely, to understand why high levels of anxiety lead to more pro-environment al behaviors.

In the decarbonization of the steel, cement, and chemical industry in Germany, green hydrogen is expected to play a crucial role. The utilization of green hydrogen in the production processes of said industries requires organizations to modify their business model, requiring sustainable business model innovation (SBMI). Numerous tools and frameworks that support organizations in the process of SBMI have been proposed in the literature in recent years. However, the applicability of these tools and frameworks for steel, cement, and chemical companies that intend to utilize green hydrogen to produce their goods remains unexplored. By conducting a systematic literature review on tools and frameworks for SBMI, a literature and practice review to identify and analyze existing green hydrogen projects of steel, cement, and chemical companies, and an evaluation of the identified tools and frameworks in an evaluation matrix, this paper aims to assess the suitability of SBMI tools and frameworks for steel, cement, and chemical companies that plan to use green hydrogen to produce their goods. Based on the evaluation, the Cambridge Business Model Innovation Process (CBMIP) was identified as the most suitable SBMI framework.

Whereas many carbon cycle models track CO₂ perturbations relative to a pre-industrial equilibrium, this paper uses absolute quantities to describe atmospheric CO₂ sinks, source and flow rates. This method, when combined with the notion of source and sink resistance, and a finite biospheric reservoir, accurately describes ¹⁴C levels between 1820 and 2020 using only five external parameters. The inputs are:- global records of fossil-fuel emissions, records of CO₂ mixing-ratio and listings of atmospheric atomic weapons tests. Over the same period ¹³C flows are also accurately described given a ð¹³C value for fossil fuel and a ð¹³C value for the initial background. This top-down approach differs from complex climate models since it circumvents the necessity to catalogue individual processes. The paper proceeds to use the method to examine the anthropogenic fossil-fuel emissions contributions during the period 1750 to 2020, deducing that around 24% remains in the atmosphere, while 76% has been absorbed in the land, terrestrial biosphere and surface ocean. During the same period 13% of the total CO₂ atmospheric concentration is due to fossil fuels. However, regarding the increase, fossil fuels contributed to 38% of the rise during this period.

The purpose of the evaluation of the Peruvian energy generation system is to project the electricity generation and demand until the year 2050. To achieve this, three alternative scenarios have been defined and analyzed using the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) software. The scenarios are as follows: the first one, Business-as-Usual scenario, based on normal trends according to historical data and referencing projections made by Peruvian state entities; the second one is focused on Energy Efficiency, the highlighted characteristic is taking into consideration the efficient conditions in transmission and distribution of electric energy; and the third one, centered on Geothermal Energy, focused on the development of this type of energy source and prioritizing it. The primary purpose of this analysis is to identity advantages and disadvantages inherent in each scenario in order to get the best of each one. In this way, the intention is to propose solutions based on Peru’s national reality or possible uses of the country’s energy potential to supply its energy demand. Currently, Peru’s energy demand relies on fossil fuels, hydraulic, and thermal energy. However, there is the possibility of transforming this system into a sustainable one, by strengthening existing and growing energy sources such as solar and wind energy, and new technologies for hydraulic and thermal energy, in addition to considering geothermal energy as the main energy source in the third scenario. The new system mentioned satisfactorily indicate that the CO2 equivalent emissions decrease significantly in the third scenario, with a 15.8% reduction compared to the first scenario and a 9.7% reduction in comparison to the second. On the other hand, the second scenario shows a 5.6% decrease in CO2 emissions compared to the first, resulting from improvements in technology and energy efficiency without requiring significant modifications or considerable investments, as in the third scenario.

Wetlands are one of the crucial natural resources. They provide invaluable biodiversity resources, aid in water quality improvement, support ground water recharge, help in moderating climate change and support flood control. Environment is in the other hand, where we live and something, we are very familiar with our day to day life. Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Remote Sensing and Global Positioning System (GPS) were a useful tool for wetland and environmental change analysis and to improve on the classification accuracy. This study investigates population and environmental change of Jarmet wetland and its surrounding area change analysis over the period of 1972 to 2015. The purpose of this study was to show land use/ land cover change of Jarmet wetland and its surrounding environment over years as a response to population growth. For this purpose, multi-temporal satellite imageries (Landsat MSS 1972, TM1986, ETM+ 2000, 2005 and 2015 and SRTM 2000) were obtained and used for LULC change analysis, elevation analysis and change detection analysis. ERDAS Imagine 2015, ARC GIS 10.5.1, Global Mapper11, ENVI 5.0 and DNR Garmin softwares were used to process the image data and accuracy assessment analysis. The result of LULC showed that there is spatial reduction in wetland, forest, Shrubland and grassland in the period of 43 years (1972-2015) by -1,722.8 ha, -296.2 ha, -1,718.7 ha and -661.9 ha respectively, due to increase in the farmland and plantation area as a response to overpopulation, lack of environmental policy implementation and irresponsible for natural resource degradation. The accuracy assessment of LULC change are done for recent satellite image showed the overall accuracy of 84.06% with Kappa index 75.19% this means this classification is accurately classified and handle greater than 75% of error. Finally, this study suggests that create strictly natural resource conservation law, stopping illegal expansion of farmland, educating society about the value of natural resource especially wetland and create a source of income for society rather than farming.

In recent decades, reports of deforestation, mass extinctions, biodiversity loss, and emergencies like floods and droughts have clearly highlighted the impact of human activities on these outcomes. This underscores the need for significant lifestyle changes to mitigate this impact. Pro-environmental behavior (PEB) change involves adopting actions that protect the environment and reducing environmentally harmful activities. While qualitative research may provide unique insights into PEB barriers that are challenging to capture through quantitative methods, reports of qualitative studies are scattered across different literatures with little integration. With the present review, we bring together insights from qualitative studies on PEB barriers and examine whether those studies reveal barriers compatible with existing barrier frameworks from environmental psychology. We identified 38 qualitative studies on barriers to PEB change. Our analysis revealed that most of the barriers to individual pro-environmental action identified in qualitative studies align with environmental psychology frameworks. These barriers were experienced not only by individuals in their role as consumer or citizen, but also by community-level actors (e.g., seeking to implement pro-environmental policies) and industrial decision-makers (e.g., aiming to reduce the ecological footprint of their business activities). Our findings underscore the multifaceted nature of barriers to PEB change and emphasize the importance of addressing structural and institutional factors alongside individual-level interventions.

During software development requirement gathering is an important phase. Requirements are the basis of software development. The success or failure of any software depends upon level of understanding developed in requirements. During software development requirements keeps on changing due to different reasons. Hence requirements are such a critical phase that leads to the total project failure. So, to understand the impacts and to identify the conflicts with existing requirements, it is important to manage and analyze the requirements well. Requirement change management is the interest of this paper. Different requirement change management techniques has been discussed in this paper and analyzed them well and finally conclude the results accordingly.

This review paper is intended to exhibit the interplays between environmental change and rapid population growth in developing countries. In the course of discussion, the impacts of rapidly population growing on the environment have been discussed, and evidence, from various parts of the world have been traced. Studies on the impacts of population pressure on environment have been critically reviewed. It is revealed that all across the developing countries, farm size is shrinking as farmers continue to subdivide holdings among their children. In countries such as Malawi, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Haiti, Nepal and Bangladesh, population growth rates are high, and the non-farm sector is still in its early stages of development. Demographic pressure, land scarcity, and land fragmentation drive greater rural vulnerability and poverty, marked by decreased food security, inadequate response to such natural disasters such as drought or pest infestations, weakened resilience to shocks, and poor health. It is not just the supply of food, fodder, and fuel wood but the resource base itself and the lives that depend upon it are being affected. The evidences pinpoints that man through his non-sustainable production and consumption patterns, is placed at the heart of environmental changes. However, contradictory view, and practices are also in place that the population growth has positive impacts environmental restoration and improvements, while other evidences show insignificant effect of population on the environment. This contradicting scenario puts scholars in argument, and still need further research. Hence, it would be a blind generalization to draw conclusion from this relationship alone, rather, another factor that acts beyond population pressure must also be considered to justify the impact of population on environmental changes.

This paper identifies the characteristics of the farmer that affect the degree of farmer’s perceived-impact of climate change (CC). We use data from the Indonesian Rice Farm Household survey consisting of 87,330 farmers. An ordered probit regression model was used to estimate the effect of each variable on the degree of perceived-impact of CC. The results of this study confirm the previous empirical studies. Several variables that have been identified as having a positive effect on farmer adaptation practices such as farmer education, land tenure, irrigation infrastructure, cropping system, chemical fertilizer application, access to extension services and participation in farmer group affect the degree of CC perceived-impact negatively. However, a different result was found in the estimation of the gender variable. We found that female farmer has a higher resilience toward CC than the male farmer does. Furthermore, the female farmer has a more positive perception about future farming conditions than the male does. Finally, we suggest that the implementation of national adaptation policy should prioritize more to the farmer with insecure land tenure and utilize and expand the channel of agricultural extension services to deliver the planned adaptation policy.

Aim of the study was to determine the influence of climatic and hydrological changes on the growth of Scotch pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Black alder (Alnus glutinosa (L.) Gaertn) in the Narew National Park over past 50 years. The researches were based on tree increment cores extracted from 42 pine trees and 57 alder trees ranging in age from 25 to 88 years and climatic (temperature and precipitation for Bialystok) and hydrological (water level of the Narew River) data. Standardized data (5-year index) were analysed by species, generation (Y - 21-40 years, M - 41-60, O - 61-90) and decade using correlation analysis. The results of the study show that pine responded more strongly to changes in air temperature and changes in precipitation totals, while alder growth was more strongly related to fluctuations in the water level of the Narew River. The most variable climatic and hydrological conditions and the most difficult conditions for tree growth prevailed in the first and last decades (1971-1980, 2011-2020). The decrease in the water level of the Narew River that occurred over the last 50 years did not adversely affect the condition of the trees. Analysis of DBH growth rates showed that the younger generations (Y, M) grow faster than the older generation (O). One of the reasons for the accelerated tree growth and increased resistance to the decline in the water level of the Narew River may be the increase in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Accelerated tree growth and increased resistance to drought may have certain consequences like increased damage from wind as a result of the decrease in wood density or decline in the sensitivity of trees to climate and hydrological changes. However, less sensitivity to changes in climatic conditions may only apply to older trees.

The Kanchenjunga Conservation Area (KCA) is a high mountain protected area in eastern Nepal undergoing socio-economic and environmental changes that are unprecedented in the region’s history. In the following paper, we discuss recent changes involving new road construction, climate change, adventure tourism, and the wildlife/forest cover/medicinal plant sectors. Our assessments are based on the collective results of past and recent field research, remote sensing analysis, oral histories, and literature reviews. While similar changes are occurring in mountain protected areas (MPA) throughout Nepal, it is suggested that the KCA differs from other regions in that it still retains the option of conducting detailed feasibility, environmental, and impact assessments prior to the implementation of major change-associated projects, particularly the construction of roads. In turn, the KCA might avoid many of the environmental, social, and economic problems experienced elsewhere in Nepal, while enhancing its status, income-generating capacities, and sustainability as a global destination for adventure, nature, and cultural tourism.

Climate and land use changes are major factors affecting runoff in regional basins. Understanding variation by considering interactions among hydrological components is an important process for water resource management. This study aimed to assess the variation of future runoff in the Upper Chi Basin, Northeastern Thailand. QSWAT hydrological model was integrated to 3 CMIP6 GCMs including ACCESS-CM2, MIROC6, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios during 2023 – 2100. Land Change Modeler (LCM) was also used for future land use simulation. The results revealed that future average of long-term precipitation and temperature tended to increase while forest land tended to decrease and be replaced by sugarcane plantations. The accuracy assessment of baseline year runoff calculation by QSWAT during 1997 – 2022 showed acceptable result as can be seen from R2, NSE, RSR, and PBIAS indices. This result could lead to temporal and spatial simulation of future runoff. Likewise, runoff of 2 SSPs scenarios tended to increase consecutively, especially in SSP585 scenario. In addition, in case of long-term spatial changes in the subbasins scale, over 90% of the area, from upstream to outlet point, tended to get higher due to 2 major factors including future increased precipitation and changes in cultivation, which would be influential to groundwater and interflow components respectively. Methodology and result of this study can be useful to stakeholders in understanding changes in hydrological system so that they can apply it to develop a strategy for water resource management and handling factors affecting different dimensions properly and sustainably.

This study considers the change-point test problem for time series based on the self-normalization ratio statistic test, which is constructed using residuals obtained from a support vector regression (SVR)-autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. Under the null hypothesis, the series is a stationary process, and our test statistic converges to a non-degenerate distribution. Under the alternative hypothesis, there are change-points in the time series, and the self-normalization test statistic diverges to infinity. The simulations show that our proposed new test has better finite sample performance than other SVR-based tests in the literature. Finally, we illustrate its usefulness by analyzing two actual data sets.

Urban cities are the major drivers of economic growth and development. Economic growth and development however results in considerable land cover land use dynamics. This study assessed the dynamics in land cover land use that have occurred in New Braunfels, Texas in the last 7 years (2013 - 2020) to observe areas in the city that had experienced considerable shifts in land cover and land use. A 30-meter resolution Landsat images were used to examine possible changes in land cover land use. New Braunfels was observed to have experienced significant changes in land use especially in developed areas. This change can be attributed to the influx of people into the city, contributing to the need for increased urban development. Analysis of this study shows that about 16% (about 553 hectares) of forest land cover class and 28% (about 1,139 hectares) of grassland class in time 1 (August 31, 2013) changed to built-up land use class in time 2 (November 5, 2020). A limitation to this study was that of the spatial resolution of images used. Higher spatial resolution images could impact the producers, users, and overall accuracy assessment. Results from this study can aid in supporting better decision-making for sustainable urban development and climate change mitigation.

Global change is affecting vegetation cover and processes through multiple pathways. Long time series of surface land surface properties derived from satellite remote sensing offer a unique abilities to observe these changes, particularly in areas with complex topography and limited research infrastructure. Here, we focus on Nepal, a biodiversity hotspot where vegetation productivity is limited by moisture availability (dominated by a summer monsoon) at lower elevations and by temperature at high elevations. We analyze normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 1981 to 2015 semimonthly, at 8 km spatial resolution. We use a random forest (RF) of regression trees to generate a statistical model of NDVI as a function of elevation, land use, CO2 level, temperature, and precipitation. We find that NDVI has increased over the studied period, particularly at low and middle elevations and during fall (post-monsoon). We infer from the fitted RF model that the NDVI linear trend is primarily due to CO2 level (or another environmental parameter that is changing quasi-linearly), and not primarily to temperature or precipitation trends. On the other hand, interannual fluctuation in NDVI is more correlated with temperature and precipitation. RF accurately fits the available data and shows promise for estimating trends and testing hypotheses about their causes.

Improving the effectiveness of health interventions is a major challenge in public health research and program development. A large body of literature has found low or no impact of health education and promotional interventions. We aim to develop a conceptual framework in support of intervention designs for preventive health behavior improvement programs and outcomes. The proposed approach is based on a narrative review of empirical literature assessing the limitations of less effective or ineffective field experiments regarding preventive health education and promotion interventions. We found three major limitations regarding the mental model’s balance of treatment and comparison groups, treatment groups’ willingness to adopt suggested behaviors, and the type, length, frequency, intensity, and sequence of treatments. To minimize the influence of these concerns, we propose a mental model-based repeated multifaceted (MRM) intervention design framework to provide an intervention design for improving health education and promotional programs.

Background: Escalating climate change concerns have prompted the healthcare sector, particularly anaesthesia, to reassess its practices to align with environmental sustainability. Anesthetic gases like desflurane, sevoflurane, and isoflurane significantly impact the environment due to their high Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) and prolonged atmospheric lifetimes. This manuscript investigates these impacts and advocates for strategies to reduce the carbon footprint of anesthetic care while maintaining patient safety. Methods: We reviewed the environmental impacts of anesthetic gases and explored various strategies for sustainable anaesthesia. These strategies include adopting anesthetics with lower GWPs, enhancing recycling and waste reduction techniques, transitioning to intravenous anaesthesia, and implementing low-flow anaesthesia methods. We also examined barriers to these strategies, such as educational gaps, technological challenges, resistance to change, and policy limitations. Results: Adopting anesthetics with lower GWPs, such as sevoflurane over desflurane, and implementing low-flow anaesthesia can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Recycling and waste reduction techniques, though challenging, offer additional environmental benefits. Transitioning to intravenous anaesthesia can eliminate the direct GWP contributions from volatile anesthetic gases. However, these strategies require comprehensive education, advocacy for research and innovation, strategic change management, and supportive policies. Conclusions: Continuous monitoring and evaluation are crucial to ensure the effectiveness of sustainable practices in anaesthesia. Establishing robust Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and utilizing advanced analytical tools will enable the anaesthesia community to adapt and refine practices. Collaborative efforts among clinicians, policymakers, and stakeholders are essential to significantly reduce the environmental impact of anaesthesia and promote ecological responsibility within healthcare.

The international literature shows a polarised debate on the impacts of climate change on migration. Some studies find a positive linkage, whereas others find a negative one. It is, without a doubt, a complex process better considered case-specific. There is no available information on the relationship between climate change and migration in Colombia, despite past research exploring each of these subjects independently. This study intends explicitly to investigate this linkage gap. Consequently, this paper's essential contribution is that it builds a bridge between climate change scenarios and migratory science for the first time in Colombia. Despite their limitations, the theoretical and methodological framework suggested by IOM (2009b pp. 86, Section B, Chapter II) is demonstrated in this study to be very valid since it provides a methodology to predict where future flows will occur (based on past evidence). The methodological approaches of SLA and NELM explained in section A in the IV Chapter are also valuable for analysing and approaching this study's conclusions. The primary conclusions of this study indicate that the "Coffee Region," Valle, and Atlantic (or Caribbean Coast) provinces that mainly send emigrants to Spain and the US are the key internal regions responsible for most of the international migration from Colombians. The same areas are especially vulnerable to the impacts of upcoming climate change in the A1B scenario produced by the IDEAM (2010) for 2040 and 2100. Thus, future flows of migrants are expected from these regions (2040-2100). However, issues such as visa requirements or the costs associated with migration constitute international barriers to this flow. The sensitivity of these regions can also be associated with internal migration flows, more armed conflict, and forced displacement in a cyclical process. Theoretically, a resurgence of Colombia's armed conflict and displacement due to climate change can be expected. However, the need for empirical studies in Colombia to support this analysis is imperative and is the most crucial recommendation arising from this study.

The paper will analyze the pressures and vulnerabilities of the consolidated city from two perspectives: technical and social. Some design and pragmatic experiences conducted by the author in his teaching and research experience first at the Department of Urbanism of TUDelft in the Netherlands and currently at the PDTA Department of La Sapienza University of Rome will be introduced and analyzed. In the first research activity, whose case study is Rotterdam, all urban vulnerabilities related to climate change will be analyzed while in the second one, conducted in Viterbo, the vulnerability related to the hull of social inclusion, poor accessibility and psycho-social stress that plague our established cities will be treated. The two areas of study, different in size and spatial governance tools, are comparable because they allow deciphering the city's risks through lines of intervention that could serve as best practices and serve the urban planning disciplinary update also allowing to define a reflection on morphology and fabrics and on the shape of the city itself. Both teaching and research activities in which the author is involved allow the topic of urban vulnerability to be addressed with a broad exploratory scope that, in the final stage, hypothesizes design intervention on the neighborhood scale, identified as the most appropriate to provide plausible climate and social adaptation and mitigation responses.

The impact of warming on the phenology of grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) in conditions of Central Europe was evaluated at the locality of Dolné Plachtince in the Slovakian wine region. In Welschriesling and Pinot Blanc model varieties there was observed onset of phenophases as defined in BBCH scale over 1985–2018 period. Based on the data obtained there was evaluated the influence of average and average maximum temperature and GDD on the onset of phenophases. The results observed indicate earlier budburst by 5–7 days, earlier beginning of flowering by 7–10 days, and earlier berry softening by 18 days, and harvest dates advanced by 8–10 days on average. In both varieties there was found the highest influence of the average monthly temperature in March on budburst, the highest influence of the average monthly temperature and the average maximum temperature in May on the beginning of flowering, and the highest, statistically significant influence of the average maximum temperature in June on grape veraison. The warming observed in moderate climate conditions of northern wine regions in Central Europe (Slovakia) has not caused yet the changes in the grapevine phenology stable enough to require serious adaptation measures.

Development of methods and algorithms to predict the effect of mutations on protein stability, protein-protein, and protein-DNA/RNA binding is necessitated by the needs of protein engineering and for understanding the molecular mechanism of disease-causing variants. The vast majority of the leading methods are either methods with adjustable parameters or machine learning algorithms, both requiring a database of experimentally measured folding and binding free energy changes. These databases are collections of experimental data taken from scientific investigations typically aimed at probing the role of particular residue on the above-mentioned thermodynamics characteristics, i.e., the mutations are not introduced at random and do not necessarily represent mutations originating from single nucleotide variant (SNV). Thus, the reported performance of the leading algorithms assessed on these databases or other limited cases, may not be applicable for predicting the effect of SNVs seen in the human population. Indeed, we demonstrate that the SNVs and non-SNVs are not equally presented in the corresponding databases and the distribution of the free energy changes are not the same. Furthermore, the Pearson correlation coefficients (PCCs) obtained on cases involving SNVs are less impressive than for non-SNVs, indicating that caution should be used in applying them to reveal the effect of human SNVs. All methods are found to underestimate the energy changes by roughly a factor of 2.

Nature-based solutions (NbS) - working with and enhancing nature to address societal challenges - are increasingly being featured in climate change adaptation policy and plans. While there is growing evidence that NbS can reduce vulnerability to climate change impacts in general, there is a lack of understanding on the mechanisms through which this can be achieved, particularly in the Global South. To address this, we analyse 85 nature-based interventions in rural areas across the Global South, and factors mediating their effectiveness, based on a systematic map of peer-reviewed studies encompassing a wide diversity of ecosystems, climate impacts, and intervention types. We develop and apply an analytical framework of people’s social-ecological vulnerability to climate change, in terms of six pathways of vulnerability reduction: social and ecological exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Most cases (95%) report a reduction in vulnerability, primarily by lowering ecosystem sensitivity to climate impacts (73% of interventions), followed by reducing social sensitivity (52%), reducing ecological exposure (36%), increasing social adaptive capacity (31%), increasing ecological adaptive capacity (19%) and/or reducing social exposure (14%). An analysis of mediating factors shows that social dimensions are equally important as technical factors in NbS to achieving equitable and effective outcomes. Attention to the distinct social and ecological pathways through which vulnerability is reduced helps to harness the multiple benefits of working with nature in a warming world.

The conservation of coastal wetland ecosystems, like mangrove forests and salt marshes, represents a critical strategy for mitigating atmospheric emissions and climate change in the 21st century. Yet the existence of these environments is threatened by human-induced disturbances, namely deforestation and accelerated sea-level rise. Coastal systems maintain surface elevation in response to sea-level rise through a combination of physical and biological processes both above and below the ground surface. The quantification and relative contribution of belowground process controls (e.g., seasonal water content, organic matter decomposition) on surface elevation change is largely unexplored but crucial for informing coastal ecosystem sustainability. To address this knowledge deficit, we integrated measurements of surface elevation change of the live root zone (0.5 to 1 m depth) with geotechnical data from co-located sediment cores in the Sundarbans mangrove forest (SMF) of southwest Bangladesh. Core data reveal that the primary belowground controls on surface elevation change include seasonal fluctuations in pore-water content and the relative abundance of fine-grained sediments capable of volumetric expansion and contraction, supporting an elevation gain of ~2.42 ± 0.26 cm yr⁻¹. In contrast to many mangrove environments, the soils of the SMF contain little organic matter and are dominantly composed (>90%) of inorganic clastic sediments. The mineral-rich soil texture likely leads to less compaction-induced subsidence as compared to organic-rich substrates and facilitates surface equilibrium in response to sea level rise. Despite a relatively high soil bulk density, soil carbon (C) density of the SMF is very low owing to the dearth of preserved organic content. However, rates of C accumulation are balanced out by locally high accretion rates, rendering the SMF a greater sink of terrestrial C than the worldwide mangrove average. The findings of this study demonstrate that C accumulation in the SMF, and possibly other alluvial mangrove forests, is highly dependent on the continued delivery of sediment to the mangrove platform and associated settings.

Leaders are failing to respond to the climate and environmental urgency the world is facing. A growing action gap, clearly visible during the recent CoP25, has been fueled by leaders' inability to respond efficiently to the mounting threats scientists—and increasingly society—are concerned about. Bridging this gap and tackling the growing polarization within society calls for leaders to accept the full complexity of the issues the world is facing. This will require them to question their understanding of these geopolitical affairs and embrace the dynamics at play, and avoid falling back on simplistic cognitive models. We propose a heuristic to convey the pathways available to decision-makers to make their way out of the current inaction impasse. By breaking free of this deadlock, a social transition will have the potential to take place, helping us to avoid crossing the climate system tipping points.

Panel data of our interest consist of a moderate number of panels, while the panels contain a small number of observations. An estimator of common breaks in panel means without a boundary issue for this kind of scenario is proposed. In particular, the novel estimator is able to detect a common break point even when the change happens immediately after the first time point or just before the last observation period. Another advantage of the elaborated change point estimator is that it results in the last observation in situations with no structural breaks. The consistency of the change point estimator in panel data is established. The results are illustrated through a simulation study. As a by-product of the developed estimation technique, a theoretical utilization for correlation structure estimation, hypothesis testing, and bootstrapping in panel data is demonstrated. A practical application to non-life insurance is presented as well.

The study explores the value of indigenous knowledge in mitigating and adapting to the effects of climate change in rural communities of Uganda. It provides an overview of how rural farmers use traditional and indigenous knowledge to predict weather changes to inform their adaptation and mitigation plans. The study intended to investigate how climate change effects were managed by the rural communities of Bakiga using indigenous knowledge and practices. Specifically, it sought to establish how local farmers’ innovations and practices were used to mitigate the effects of climate change and enhance food security. A case study research design with triangulation of data sources was employed. The study was conducted in Rukiga District, southwestern Uganda, where rural farmers were interviewed to explore their practices for reducing the effects of climate change to enhance food security. Thematic data analysis was used to get participants’ experiences and views regarding indigenous knowledge and effects of climate change mitigation. The findings indicate that rural farmers have indigenous practices of mitigating the effects climate change and contributing to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

The prefabricated houses supply in Chile was analyzed from web platforms, public market, social media, and Internal Revenue Service, using indicators according to regulatory compliance, complexity, and sustainability attributes, which are essential in advancing to industrialization, and climate change adaptability. The 80% is concentrated in construction, and manufacturing companies, 83% of them are legally registered,with the capacity of meeting technical requirements. To delve deeper into this, 54% has low level, 35% medium level, and 11% high level. The sustainability was measured in 5 levels: 2.7% (1), 37,5% (2), 58,6% (3), 1,1% (4) and 0% (5), which is the highest one. This attribute was determined as the weakest one. The proposed evaluation, based on indicators by attribute, is objective and relevant to consideration since there is still a lack of capacity to supply the housing deficit, and there is not attributes associated to security in habitability to address the climate change, and environment threats, with a lack of action by the state to promote this productive sector, therefore focusing more in provide products, than taking responsibility of the site, not advancing to become a real state agency, which could be improved if management, and regulation were incorporated.

Abstract: Increasing population and urbanization are affecting human health and comfort. In order to get rid of these affects, mankind is changing its enviroment and looking for new life areas. This study investigates the influence of Land Cover Change (LCC) and Normalisied Densly Vegetation Index (NDVI) on Land Surface Temperature (LST) of Fethiye-Göcek Specially Protected Area (SEPA) in easterm mediterranean basin. In the study LCC, NDVI and LST were drived from landsat 5, 7 and 8 satellite image of resolation at 30x30 m acquired between 1995-2020. LST were computed based on Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) types. The Corine Index were used for determination of land uses. The results indicated that water, forest and maquia lands decreasing while urban fabric and bare lands are increasing depend upon the urbanization and forest fires in the basin. These changes in LULC widened the temperature differences between the urban and rural areas. The change in LST is associated with changes in constructional materials in urban land and in vegetation abundance both in the urban and rural areas. Vegetation has an important factor in the temperature of different land covers. That produces warming trend in temperetaure in built-up areas it causes to keep other lands warmer in cold weather. Another important result is affective Urban Heat Island (UHI) on climate change based on the impact of urbanization and land cover changes. Significantly possitive correlation were found between the urbanization rate, population and built-up area and warming rate of average air temperature and so the LST.

Corresponding to the principles of biological synapses, an essential prerequisite for hardware neural networks using electronics devices is continuous regulation of conductance. We implemented artificial synaptic characteristics in a (GeTe/Sb2Te3)16 iPCM with a superlattice structure under optimized identical pulse trains. Based on atomically controlling the Ge switch in the phase transition that appears in the GeTe/Sb2Te3 superlattice structure, multiple conductance states were implemented by applying the appropriate electrical pulses. Furthermore, we found that the bidirectional switching behavior of a (GeTe/Sb2Te3)16 iPCM can achieve a desired resistance level using the pulse width. Therefore, we also fabricated a Ge2Sb2Te5 PCM and designed a pulse scheme based on the phase transition mechanism to compare to the (GeTe/Sb2Te3)16 iPCM. We designed an identical pulse scheme that implements linear and symmetrical LTP and LTD based on the iPCM mechanism. As a result, the (GeTe/Sb2Te3)16 iPCM showed relatively excellent synaptic characteristics by implementing gradual conductance modulation, a nonlinearity value of 0.32, and LTP/LTD 40 conductance states using identical pulses trains. Our results demonstrate the general applicability of the artificial synaptic device for potential use in neuro-inspired computing and next generation non-volatile memory.

The key anthropogenic effects on climate include the changes in land use and emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Depletion of vegetation poses serious threat that speeds the process of climate change and reduces carbon sequestration by the environment. Thus, the preservation of natural environment in urban areas is an essential component of the garden city model, proposed by Sir Ebenezer Howard in 1898, to ensure ecological balance. Recent Landsat images showed that Kumasi does not have the required percentage of green vegetation as was stipulated in the garden city model on which the city was built. It was observed that most parts of Kumasi's green vegetation have been lost to built environments. This study was conducted to assess the impact of urbanization on the garden city status and its effect on the micro-climate of the city. Significant changes in the vegetation cover of the city was evaluated from Landsat-TM imagery and analysis of a long term climatic data of Kumasi carried out over a 55-year period (1960 to 2015). It was observed that, climatic conditions have slightly changed, as mean surface temperature of has increased by 1.2 °C/ 55 years, due to the significant landuse changes from development of non-transpiring, reduced evaporative urban surfaces. However, the impact is not greatly felt due to the geographical location of the city on the globe despite the evidence of a considerable temperature change. Green vegetation conservation for the city is recommended as a top priority in future for city authorities and planners.

This research aimed at examining how social enterprises mitigate climate change in Ghana, examining their strategies, impacts on the environment that affect climate change, and barriers. The research adopted a cross-sectional survey design, descriptive and involved 185 social enterprises. Questionnaires were administered online and data was analyzed using descriptive statistics and regression analysis. The findings revealed that the most used strategies include the development of new funding structures and advocacy for sustainable farming. It also highlights numerous environmental concerns such as the judicious use of hazardous materials and pollution. Nevertheless, results from regression analysis showed that the relationship between the number of social entrepreneurship activities and the impact on the environment is relatively low and the role of other factors may be more significant. Some of the main barriers that were found include competition from large organizations, cultural perspectives towards climate change, policy instability and lack of adequate technical education. Accordingly, the recommendations proposed are developing specialized funding programs for climate-focused social enterprises; climate change education and awareness campaigns; and capacity building to upgrade technical competencies in clean technologies and climate resilience design.

In this study the impact of climate change on drought conditions in Serbia is investigated trough the multifractal analysis of standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The SPEI time series for accumulation time scale of 1, 3, 6 and 12 months were calculated using the high resolution meteorological gridded dataset E-OBS with a resolution of 0.10 in regular latitude/longitude coordinates and time span from 1961 to 2020. The multifractal analysis was performed for two standard climatic periods (1961−1990 and 1991−2020) using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis method (MFDFA) which is suitable for nonstationary temporal series. In each of 1278 grid cells that cover Serbian territory we analyzed 4 SPEI time series for two 30 years periods (which totals 10224 MFDFA runs) and calculated multifractal spectrum parameters that describe persistence, degree of multifractality and the influence of small/large fluctuations. We found that all the analyzed SPEI series show multifractal properties with the dominance of small fluctuations. The short and medium drought conditions described by SPEI-1, SPEI-3 and SPEI-6 are persistent (the position of maximum of multifractal spectrum is in the range 0.5&lt;α0&lt;1), stronger persistence is found at higher accumulation time scales, while SPEI-12 time series are antipersistent (0&lt;α0-1&lt;0.5). The degree of multifractality (width of multifractal spectrum W) increases from SPEI-1 to SPEI-6 and decreases for SPEI-12. For all series multifractal spectrum is right skewed (skew parameter r&gt;0) indicating that small SPEI temporal fluctuations contribute more to multifractality than large fluctuations. In the second period SPEI-1 SPEI-3 and SPEI-6 series become more persistent with weaker multifractality, indicating that short and medium drought conditions (which are related to soil moisture and crop stress) become easier to predict, while SPEI-12 changed toward random regime and stronger multifractality in eastern and central part of country, indicating that long term drought conditions (related to streamflow, reservoir levels, and groundwater levels) become more difficult for modeling and prediction.

The limited velocity in a geometry of Lorentzian signature, seem to prevent the universe to reach thermodynamic equilibrium as suggested by the cosmic microwave background. Thus it was suggested that the universe which was initially minuscule has reached a more considerable radius in a short duration by a process known as cosmic inflation. However, to drive such a process have led to the suggestion of an ad-hoc scalar field the inflaton, which has no purpose in nature other than driving the cosmic inflation field and then stopping it once the universe reached the right size. In a recent paper it was shown that rapid expansion can occur without postulating an inflation by following Hawking's suggestion and assuming that primordially the metric of the universe had an Euclidean signature, in which case velocity is not limited and thermalization and rapid expansion are derived without the need to assume an ad-hoc field. However, while in the previous work emphasis was put on the dynamics and physical statistics of the particles in a Euclidean space vs. Lorentzian space in which both spaces were given. No mathematical model was given regarding the development of current Lorentzian space-time from the early Euclidean space-time, and how fundamental problems such as the space-time singularity and the homogeneity of the CMB can be solved in the hybrid Euclidean-Lorentzian picture. This lacuna is to be rectified in the current paper.

This paper explores the imminent threat posed by climate change to the unique platypus species. It delves into the ecological repercussions of global temperature rise and altered climate patterns on platypus habitats. The study emphasises the multifaceted impacts, including changes in aquatic habitat quality, food sources, and breeding rituals. Climate-induced shifts in phytoplankton spring blooms and anthropogenic pressures further endanger the platypus's habitat. The article stresses the importance of understanding these effects for both species conservation and anticipating broader ecological and socio-economic consequences. Mitigating climate change impacts requires a multidimensional approach, involving habitat manipulation and restoration strategies.

Carbon (C) is one of the most abundant elements. It is part of all living organisms and is found in all states of matter (solid, liquid, gas, and plasma). It can take the form of one of the hardest and transparent materials (diamond) or it can be flexible and dark ( graphite), with many carbonaceous materials at both extremes. In gaseous form, C is a component of several greenhouse gas emitted during the combustion of fossil fuels. Carbon movement between the atmosphere, land (biosphere and lithosphere), and ocean (hydrosphere) can alter total amounts in each pool. Human activities accelerate C movement into the atmosphere, causing increases in climate change. This shift from terrestrial and oceanic C pools to the atmosphere cause an increase in the intensity and duration of droughts, hurricanes, snowstorms, and other natural phenomenon. Although society hears about C emissions there is a lack of understanding of its importance and the need to decrease C in the atmospheric pool to avoid exacerbating climate change. Forests and biochar are two biological methods to retain C in the terrestrial pool for long time and at very low cost. This review details where C comes from, its relationship with forests, and biochar and their roles in increasing carbon sequestration to limit the impacts of climate change and continue having future sustainable forests and ecosystems services that we enjoy today.

Puerto Rico is a neotropical island located in the Caribbean. Like other neotropical regions, Puerto Rico streams discharges can vary with the seasons, atmospheric events, and human activities. The Lapa River is part of the Puerto Rico Heritage Rivers Program. This program identifies and manages the protection of hydrographic systems that maintain their natural conditions. The necessity of increasing the knowledge of the natural processes of the Lapa River and providing valuable information for the development of a future management plan for the ecosystem, the following objectives were established in this research: (1) to describe the temporal variations in water discharges in the Lapa River and (2) to describe the impact of atmospheric events on the water discharges at the Lapa River. This study concluded that the highest annual discharge averages recorded from 1989 to 2021 in the Lapa River occurred in 2011 and 2017. 2011, the annual mean discharge was 31.20 (ft3/s); in 2017, the average was 40.44 (ft3/s). In terms of atmospheric events, this study concludes that, during the evaluated period, the highest discharge event occurred after the impact of hurricanes Irma and Maria, with an average discharge of 164.40 ft3/s in October and 182.60 ft3/s in September. This event set a precedent in the river Lapa’s discharges, impacting the river basin’s flora, fauna, and morphology from its headwaters downstream.

Climate changes caused by anthropogenic actions can directly and indirectly affect living beings, including parasites and their hosts. Changes such as water temperature, pH, distribution of nutrients in the aquatic environment are some examples that can interfere with the fish community, whether in open water or in production systems. In this review, we will show how climate change can affect the adaptation of hosts and parasites in the aquatic environment and how these parasites can be used for environmental monitoring.

The study aims to investigate the impacts of climate change on butterfly populations Thimphu district of Bhutan. Butterflies are indicators of environmental factors and can act as an early warning of impending changes in local flora and fauna. The study will involve citizen science with participants using iNaturalist and Seek applications to capture butterfly data in various habitat areas in the Thimphu district. The data collected will be analyzed using Statistics Kit for Social Sciences (SPSS), Nvivo, and Geographical Information System (GIS) programs. The results of the research will be disseminated through awareness campaigns to increase public understanding of the value of butterfly protection in the conservation of healthy environments. The study's findings will be used to develop conservation initiatives to maintain biodiversity and assess the impacts of climate change.

Turmeric is highly tolerant to several climatic changes and can grow under high temperatures and moderate drought conditions. This herb is very much dependant on optimum rainfall, optimum heat with less chilling or freezing conditions. These conditions if are more than normal would tend to reduce the yields of the crops and also effect the productivity. To reduce such drastic yield losses certain conventional plant breeding methods were employed but were very less effective compared to plant biotechnology. To reduce these loses by stresses, extensive and effective molecular biology methods were employed which identifies the genes that are stress responsive along with certain methods like gene transfer, genetic engineering was also known to be effective. All these methods are quite helpful in mitigating the yield losses and promoting healthy growth in the plants. The maintenance of rhizome size, curcumin content, essential oils etc. is very much necessary for the turmeric crop because of its role, especially in the medical field. Therefore, the yield losses are reduced to a maximum extent so that development of smart turmeric is easy and crop designing is possible only with the advanced techniques involved in agriculture biotechnology.

In contrast to animals, adult organs in plants are not determined during embryogenesis but gen-erated from meristematic cells as plants advance through development. Plant development in-volves a succession of different phenotypic stages and the transition between these stages is termed phase transition. Phase transitions need to be tightly regulated and coordinated to ensure they occur under optimal seasonal, environmental conditions. Polycarpic perennials transition through vegetative stages and the mature, reproductive stage many times during their lifecycles and, in both perennial and annual species, environmental factors and culturing methods can re-verse the otherwise unidirectional vector of plant development. Epigenetic factors regulating gene expression in response to internal cues and external (environmental) stimuli influencing the plant’s phenotype and development have been shown to control phase transitions. How develop-mental and environmental cues interact to epigenetically alter gene expression and influence these transitions are not well understood and understanding this interaction is important considering the current climate change scenarios, since epigenetic maladaptation could have catastrophic con-sequences for perennial plants in natural and agricultural ecosystems. Here we review studies focussing on the epigenetic regulators of the vegetative phase change and highlight how these mechanisms might act in exogenously induced plant rejuvenation and regrowth following stress.

This research analyzes the Physical Education students’ degree of academic performance with the incorporation of active methodologies, specifically the flipped classroom mixed learning, restricted to evaluation periods in the months of June and September. The study focuses on whether there are significant differences in this variable through the scores obtained. Through a simple random sampling, 131 students participated in this empiric-analytic research, using an ex-post-facto study with a retrospective design with quasi control group. A robust test of averages comparison, multiple linear regressions and an evaluation of the relative importance of predictors is conducted. The results show how flipped classroom methodology linearly and positively influences academic performance and correlationally motivation and support. As main conclusion, in a hybrid and digitalized learning context, the value of the consideration of active methodologies (flipped classroom) based on emerging pedagogies, allows improving students’ achievement and competence development, providing critical, significant, ubiquitous, transformational and especially motivating experiences.

Land cover and climate changes greatly influence hydrologic responses of a basin. However, the response vary from basin to basin depending on the nature and severity of the changes and basin characteristics. Moreover, the combined impacts of the changes affect hydrologic responses of a basin in an offsetting or synergistic manner. This study quantified the separate and combined impacts, and the relative contributions of land cover and climate changes on multiple hydrological regimes (i.e., surface runoff, streamflow, groundwater recharge evapotranspiration) for the Dhidhessa Subbasin. Land cover and climate change data were obtained from a recent study completed for the basin. Calibrated Soil and Water Analysis Tool (SWAT) was used to quantify the impacts. The result showed that SWAT model performed well for the Dhidhessa Subbasin in predicting the water balance components. Substantial land cover change as well as an increasing temperature and rainfall trends were reported in the river basin during the past three decades. In response to these changes, surface runoff, streamflow and actual evapotranspiration (AET) increased while groundwater recharge declined. Surface runoff was more sensitive to land cover than to climate changes whereas streamflow and AET were more sensitive to climate change than to land cover change. The combined impacts played offsetting effect on groundwater recharge and AET while inconsistent effects within study periods for other hydrologic responses. Overall, the predicted hydrologic responses will have negative impacts on agricultural production and water resources availability. Therefore, the implementation of integrated watershed management strategies such as soil and water conservation and afforestation could reverse the negative impacts.

High-resolution forecasting of vegetation type shifts may prove essential for anticipating and mitigating the impacts of future climate change on bird populations. Here, we used the US Forest Service Ecological Response Unit (ERU) classification to develop and assess vegetation-based breeding habitat profiles for eight owl species occurring in foothills and mountains of the southwestern US. Shifts in mapped habitat were forecast using an ecosystem vulnerability model based on the pre-1990 climate envelopes of ERUs and the A1B moderate IPCC emission scenario of future climate. For five of the eight owl species, regional breeding habitat extent was projected to decline by at least 60% by 2090. Three species, the boreal owl (Aegolius funereus; at the trailing edge of its distribution), flammulated owl (Psiloscops flammeolus), and northern pygmy-owl (Glaucidium gnoma) were projected to experience the steepest habitat-loss rates, or 85%, 85%, and 76%, respectively. Projected vegetation shifts overlaid with well-documented flammulated owl breeding populations showed complete or near complete loss of habitat by 2090 in areas of montane forest currently supporting dense aggregations of owl territories. Generalist or lower-elevation owl species were predicted to be less impacted, while for the whiskered screech-owl (Megascops trichopsis), the contraction of current habitat was nearly offset by a projected northward expansion. In general, the results of this study suggest high exposure to climate change impacts for upper-elevation forest owls of semi-arid southwestern North America. Long distance migration and low natal philopatry may prove important to some montane owl populations for adapting to regional loss of habitat.

In the last two centuries, land use change (LUC) has been the most important direct changes driver for terrestrial ecosystems. To contrast the consequent ecosystems degradation, forward-looking spatial policies and target landscape and land-use planning processes, promoting a sustainable land use change, are needed. The present paper proposes a framework of action including different landscape planning and ecological approaches: from the spatial modelling to recognize the LUC and build different scenarios, to the ecosystem services (ESs) assessment to evaluate the possible environmental impacts. Three different scenarios were built: Trend, No-Tillage and Energy crops. The Sediment Delivery Ratio and Carbon Storage and Sequestration ESs were assessed and compared for each scenario. The aim of the paper is to support decision-makers and local communities into the landscape planning process. Results show that a regional development in line with past trend could lead to further land degradation. Instead, the two scenarios proposed in compliance with EU policies, could bring benefits only if related to moderate LUCs and respecting the naturally grass-vegetated land. From the local to global scale, a guided and shared LUC management allows implementing sustainable development, basing on a deep knowledge of physical-environmental but also social and economic issues.

Natural ecosystem of Islands and coastal region are vulnerable to climate change phenomena such as increasing temperature, fluctuating rainfalls, ocean acidification and tsunami. Andaman and Nicobar group of islands lies in Bay of Bangal facing such extreme climate phenomena. A spatial-temporal analysis of forest cover of middle Andaman region of the Andaman and Nicobar group of islands was done from 1990 to 2019 with an interval of 5-10 years. Support vector machine classifier, spectral indices such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Normalized Difference Water Index, and Normalized Difference Built-up Index were used for the analysis of greenery, water resources, and urban land. Land surface temperature was estimated using split window algorithm for Landsat 8 and mono window algorithm for Landsat 5. The data showed relative contribution of forest region toward rising temperature in the island region. The research also showed that subsurface hydrology linked to interconnected lineaments provides a stable zone for forest cover. The open forest showed maximum fluctuation while minimum change was observed in Evergreen Forest. The spectral characteristics analysis using indices showed significant change except in 2005 due to Tsunami occurred in 2005. The land surface temperature showed fluctuation near to 30° C from 1990 to 2019.

The practice of nurse health coaching (NHC) draws from the art and science of nursing, behavioral sciences, and evidence-based health coaching methods. This secondary analysis of the audio-recorded natural language of participants during NHC sessions of our recent 8-week RCT evaluates improvement over time in cognitive-behavioral outcomes: Change Talk, Resiliency, Self-Efficacy/Independent Agency, Insight & Pattern Recognition, and Building Towards Sustainability. We developed a measurement tool for coding, Indicators of Health Behavior Change (IHBC), that was designed to allow trained health coach experts to assess the presence and frequency of the indicators in the natural language content of participants. We used a two-step method for randomly selecting the 20-minute audio-recorded session that was analyzed at each time point. Fifty-six participants had high-quality audio recordings of the NHC sessions. Twelve participants were placed in the social determinants of health (SDH) group based on the following: low income (<$20,000/year), early-onset hypertension, and social disadvantages. Our analyses significantly improved Change Talk and the other four factors over time. Our factor analyses indicated two distinct factors at each measurement point of the study, demonstrating the stability of the outcome measures over time. Our newly developed measurement tool, IHBC, proved stable in structure over time and sensitive to change. This NHC program shows promise in improving cognitive-behavioral indicators associated with health behavior change in both non-SDH and SDH individuals.

Aim: The main purpose of this feasibility study was to estimate compliance and acceptability rate of a 9-Steps mobile app preparation program. Subsequently, to assess its impact regarding attitudes towards smoking cessation. Methods: The program was only available on versions above iOS 13.3. The ecological study collected user’s data via the app from 04/07/2021 to 28/07/2021. Results: A total of 2331 ecological users completed onboarding; 1926 users (73.9%) completed the step 0 and only 265 users continued in step 1. On average, participants actively engaged with intra-steps activities (85,1%). Most users were highly satisfied at the end of each step. On average 86% found the content of each step comprehensive and relevant. Mann-Whitney tests demonstrated positive changes in attitudes toward smoking cessation on the less confident users: willing (3 to 5, p <.05); confidence (3 to 5, p <.001) and readiness to quit (3 to 5, p <.001). Conclusions: This ecological study corroborates the expected dropout between first use and regular use of health mobile apps. However, engagement and satisfaction rates support the feasibility and acceptability of a 9-step preparation program. Additional research is needed to better understand determinants of regular use of mobile apps and its impact on the target behavior.

Climate change, biodiversity loss, and other social and environmental problems pose grave risks. Progress so far has been incremental and insufficient, and as a result scientists, global policy experts, and the general public increasingly conclude that bold change is required across all sectors of society. At least two kinds of bold change are conceivable: reform of existing societal systems (e.g., financial, economic, legal, and governance systems), including their institutions, policies, rules, and priorities; and transformation, understood as the de novo development of and migration to new, improved systems. This paper is the second in a series of three that together propose a novel science-driven research and development program aimed at societal transformation. Moreover, the series advances a conceptual framework and formal mechanics by which societal transformation might be approached. Two of the underlying hypotheses are that new societal systems can be developed in a science-driven process to be fit for purpose, and system fitness can be compared across designs. Societies are viewed as superorganisms, and systems are viewed as a societal cognitive architecture. The first paper in the series provides definitions, aims, hypotheses, and a worldview. This paper discusses motivations, the role of science in societal transformation, a theory of change, and fitness metrics. The proposed R&amp;D program and theory of change are sound, viable, and affordable. The local-global-viral strategy invites the global science community to play a unique co-leadership role with local communities in the development, testing, and monitoring of new societal systems. Systems are implemented via a novel civic club model, where participation is voluntary. Clubs grow and replicate based on merit and aided by club networks, whose systems are also viewed as societal cognitive architectures. Benefits of the program and strategy are discussed.

Abstract: Changes in forest landscapes have been connected with human activity for centuries, which can be considered as one of the main driving forces of change in the global perspective. The spatial distribution of forests changes along with the geopolitical situation, demographic changes, intensification of agriculture, urbanization or changes in the land use policy. However, due to the limited availability of historical data, the driving forces of changes in forest landscapes are most often considered in relation to recent decades, without taking into account long-term analyzes. The aim of this paper is to determine the impact of natural and socio-economic factors on changes in forest landscapes within the protected area – Ślęża Landscape Park and its buffer zone in the aspect of long-term analyzes covering the period of 140 years (1883-2013). The comparison of historical and current maps, demographic data on 4 different periods as well as natural and location factors by using the ArcGIS software allowed analyzing selected driving forces of forest landscape transformations. We took into account natural factors like altitude, slope, exposure of the hillside and socio-economic drivers like population changes, distances to centers of municipalities, main roads and built-up areas.

Food insecurity remains a significant developmental challenge, particularly in rural areas, despite ongoing efforts to mitigate it. To better understand the persistence of this issue, this study investigates the causes of household food insecurity and the coping strategies employed by households in Zorkor Goo, Zorkor Kanga, and Zorkor Kadaare communities within the Bongo District of Ghana’s Upper East Region. A descriptive cross-sectional survey was conducted, sampling 196 households systematically from these communities. Data were collected through a structured questionnaire covering socio-demographic factors, causes of food insecurity, household coping strategies, and dietary intake. The analysis was performed using SPSS (Version 21.0), with food security status and dietary intake assessed via the FANTA Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS) and Food Consumption Score, respectively. The study identified key factors contributing to food insecurity, including soil infertility, poor rainfall patterns, food spoilage, extravagant funerals, large family size, high unemployment, and lack of education. Major coping strategies among households included meal skipping, reducing meal size and frequency, migration, asset sales, and basket weaving. The findings revealed that 96.4% of households were severely food insecure, and over two-thirds (67.3%) exhibited poor dietary consumption. Notably, household employment levels, education, and food consumption scores were significantly associated with food insecurity (P&lt;0.001). These findings underscore the need for targeted interventions addressing the root causes of food insecurity and enhancing household resilience in these communities.

The aim of the study was to explore attitudes towards climate change among wilderness seekers. The subjects were 273 (M=23.15; SD=7.72) adults. The respondents completed four questionnaires: Wilderness Novelty Seeking Scale, Wilderness Self-Efficacy Sale, Wilderness Courage Scale and Attitude Towards Climate Changes Scale. There were three distinct profiles of the respondents: Curious, who are interested in the wilderness but lack the skills and courage to explore dangerous wilderness places; Adventurous, who actively seek experiences in dangerous wilderness places and have survival skills; and Indifferent, who have little interest in the wilderness. The participants in these profiles differed in terms of attitude toward climate change. The Curious and Adventurous groups were significantly more concerned about climate change. In addition, they were more likely to believe that climate change is already having a negative impact on the lives of people in the places where they live. Furthermore, the Curious group experienced positive feelings towards climate change less often than the Adventurous group. On the other hand, the Curious group experienced significantly more negative feelings in relation to climate change. Finally, wilderness seekers (Curious and Adventurous) were statistically more likely to engage in pro-environmental behaviors in the context of climate change compared to the Indifferent group.