Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Understanding the Interactions of Climate and Land Use Changes with Runoff Components in Spatial-Temporal Dimensions in the Upper Chi Basin, Thailand

Rattana Hormwichian
ORCID logo ,
Siwa Kaewplang
,
Anongrit Kangrang
ORCID logo ,
Jirawat Supakosol
,
Kowit Boonrawd
,
Krit Sriworamat
,
Sompinit Muangthong
,
Songphol Songsaengrit
,
Haris Prasanchum
* ORCID logo
Version 1 : Received: 1 September 2023 / Approved: 5 September 2023 / Online: 5 September 2023 (14:50:23 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Hormwichian, R.; Kaewplang, S.; Kangrang, A.; Supakosol, J.; Boonrawd, K.; Sriworamat, K.; Muangthong, S.; Songsaengrit, S.; Prasanchum, H. Understanding the Interactions of Climate and Land Use Changes with Runoff Components in Spatial-Temporal Dimensions in the Upper Chi Basin, Thailand. Water 2023, 15, 3345. Hormwichian, R.; Kaewplang, S.; Kangrang, A.; Supakosol, J.; Boonrawd, K.; Sriworamat, K.; Muangthong, S.; Songsaengrit, S.; Prasanchum, H. Understanding the Interactions of Climate and Land Use Changes with Runoff Components in Spatial-Temporal Dimensions in the Upper Chi Basin, Thailand. Water 2023, 15, 3345.

Abstract

Climate and land use changes are major factors affecting runoff in regional basins. Understanding variation by considering interactions among hydrological components is an important process for water resource management. This study aimed to assess the variation of future runoff in the Upper Chi Basin, Northeastern Thailand. QSWAT hydrological model was integrated to 3 CMIP6 GCMs including ACCESS-CM2, MIROC6, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios during 2023 – 2100. Land Change Modeler (LCM) was also used for future land use simulation. The results revealed that future average of long-term precipitation and temperature tended to increase while forest land tended to decrease and be replaced by sugarcane plantations. The accuracy assessment of baseline year runoff calculation by QSWAT during 1997 – 2022 showed acceptable result as can be seen from R2, NSE, RSR, and PBIAS indices. This result could lead to temporal and spatial simulation of future runoff. Likewise, runoff of 2 SSPs scenarios tended to increase consecutively, especially in SSP585 scenario. In addition, in case of long-term spatial changes in the subbasins scale, over 90% of the area, from upstream to outlet point, tended to get higher due to 2 major factors including future increased precipitation and changes in cultivation, which would be influential to groundwater and interflow components respectively. Methodology and result of this study can be useful to stakeholders in understanding changes in hydrological system so that they can apply it to develop a strategy for water resource management and handling factors affecting different dimensions properly and sustainably.

Keywords

climate change; land use change; QSWAT; runoff components; Upper Chi Basin

Subject

Engineering, Civil Engineering

Copyright: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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