Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Dynamic Land Use Change Prediction and Analysis of Its Impacts on Streamflow for Dabus Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin

Version 1 : Received: 9 April 2021 / Approved: 14 April 2021 / Online: 14 April 2021 (17:40:27 CEST)

How to cite: Mangel, N.B.; Berhe, F. Dynamic Land Use Change Prediction and Analysis of Its Impacts on Streamflow for Dabus Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin. Preprints 2021, 2021040393 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202104.0393.v1). Mangel, N.B.; Berhe, F. Dynamic Land Use Change Prediction and Analysis of Its Impacts on Streamflow for Dabus Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin. Preprints 2021, 2021040393 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202104.0393.v1).

Abstract

Based on the recorded watershed characteristics, the future conditions on the basin system can be predicted using a different method. In this study, dynamic land-use change and its impacts on the streamflow for the Dabus watershed were predicted using ANN-CA based method. The model performance for accurate prediction of the future land-use change on the Dabus River watershed has been checked by validation of the simulated value with the actual value, hence the overall kappa value (k) = 0.83 for the simulated 2016-LULC validated with actual 2016-LULC. Then, 2026-LULC was predicted based on the 2004 and 2009-LULC. The streamflow for the case of 2004 and 2009-LULC has been simulated using the SWAT model. The value of NSE = 0.87 and 0.90 was attained during validation of simulated streamflow for 2004 and 2009-LULC data cases, respectively. The agreement of simulated value of streamflow with the observed data is indicated as R2 = 0.91 and 0.96 for 2004-LULC and 2009-LULC. The effects of the dynamic land-use change on streamflow for the predicted land use(2026-LULC) catchment were evaluated by T-test analysis. Hence, T-stat =0.04 and -0.002 in the case of simulated streamflow used 2004-LULC and 2009-LULC, respectively compared with simulated value using 2026-LULC.

Subject Areas

streamflow; dynamic land-use change; ANN; SWAT; Dabus river

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