Version 1
: Received: 2 February 2024 / Approved: 5 February 2024 / Online: 5 February 2024 (03:43:30 CET)
How to cite:
Homer, J. Extending a Global Climate-Population Model to Simulate Impacts on Human Well-Being. Preprints2024, 2024020198. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202402.0198.v1
Homer, J. Extending a Global Climate-Population Model to Simulate Impacts on Human Well-Being. Preprints 2024, 2024020198. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202402.0198.v1
Homer, J. Extending a Global Climate-Population Model to Simulate Impacts on Human Well-Being. Preprints2024, 2024020198. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202402.0198.v1
APA Style
Homer, J. (2024). Extending a Global Climate-Population Model to Simulate Impacts on Human Well-Being. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202402.0198.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Homer, J. 2024 "Extending a Global Climate-Population Model to Simulate Impacts on Human Well-Being" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202402.0198.v1
Abstract
An existing simplified simulation model of global climate, population, economy, and governance is extended, through statistical and other data analysis, to include several measures of human well-being and population displacement. The revised model is used to explore (in testing to the year 2060) vicious cycles and causal cascades that, some have warned, could lead to acceleration of climate change in the coming decades. Model scenario testing addresses two uncertainties, namely the strength of the effect of climate change on governance erosion, and the strength of the “heat trap” effect from physical tipping points such as ice loss and permafrost thaw. This testing indicates that a strong heat trap effect could very well accelerate climate change, but that even a strong governance erosion effect is unlikely to do so. Governance erosion would hurt human well-being but is probably not much of a climate threat per se. These results are tentative but point to the possibility of formally modeling causal cascades beyond what the larger climate models have done to date.
Keywords
Climate change; well-being; population displacement; governance; tipping points; statistical regression; global modeling; simulation; system dynamics
Subject
Social Sciences, Geography, Planning and Development
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
