Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Combining Business Model Innovation and Model-Based Analysis to Tackle the Deep Uncertainty of Societal Transitions – a Case Study on Industrial Electrification and Power Grid Management

Version 1 : Received: 3 March 2021 / Approved: 4 March 2021 / Online: 4 March 2021 (14:14:46 CET)

How to cite: Zapata Riveros, J.; Speich, M.; West, M.; Ulli-Beer, S. Combining Business Model Innovation and Model-Based Analysis to Tackle the Deep Uncertainty of Societal Transitions – a Case Study on Industrial Electrification and Power Grid Management. Preprints 2021, 2021030165 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202103.0165.v1). Zapata Riveros, J.; Speich, M.; West, M.; Ulli-Beer, S. Combining Business Model Innovation and Model-Based Analysis to Tackle the Deep Uncertainty of Societal Transitions – a Case Study on Industrial Electrification and Power Grid Management. Preprints 2021, 2021030165 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202103.0165.v1).

Abstract

Creating new business models is crucial for the implementation of clean technologies for industrial decarbonization. With incomplete knowledge of market processes and uncertain conditions, assessing the prospects of a technology-based business model is challenging. This study combines business model innovation, system dynamics and exploratory model analysis to identify new business opportunities in a context of socio-technical transition and assess their prospects through simulation experiments. Furthermore, insights are visualized in a roadmap to coordinate action among the actors involved. This combination of methods is applied to the case of a business model aiming at ensuring stability of the electrical grid by centralizing the management of flexible loads in industrial companies. A system dynamics model was set up to simulate the diffusion of flexible electrification technologies. Through scenario definition and sensitivity analysis, the influence of internal and external factors on diffusion was assessed. Results highlight the central role of energy costs and customer perception. The chosen combination of methods allowed the formulation of concrete recommendation for coordinated action, explicitly accounting for the various sources of uncertainty. We suggest testing this approach in further business model innovation contexts.

Keywords

Prosumer concepts; technology change; business strategies; system dynamics; decentralization; photovoltaic; deep uncertainty; low-carbon transitions

Subject

SOCIAL SCIENCES, Accounting

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