PreprintArticleVersion 1Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed
Long-Term Forecast of Energy Demand Towards a Sustainable Future in Renewable Energies focused on Geothermal Energy in Peru (2020–2050): A LEAP Model Application
Version 1
: Received: 19 April 2024 / Approved: 20 April 2024 / Online: 22 April 2024 (10:16:48 CEST)
How to cite:
De la Cruz Torres, D.G.; Mazadiego, L.F.; Martín, D.B.; Pons-Esparver, R.R. Long-Term Forecast of Energy Demand Towards a Sustainable Future in Renewable Energies focused on Geothermal Energy in Peru (2020–2050): A LEAP Model Application. Preprints2024, 2024041366. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202404.1366.v1
De la Cruz Torres, D.G.; Mazadiego, L.F.; Martín, D.B.; Pons-Esparver, R.R. Long-Term Forecast of Energy Demand Towards a Sustainable Future in Renewable Energies focused on Geothermal Energy in Peru (2020–2050): A LEAP Model Application. Preprints 2024, 2024041366. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202404.1366.v1
De la Cruz Torres, D.G.; Mazadiego, L.F.; Martín, D.B.; Pons-Esparver, R.R. Long-Term Forecast of Energy Demand Towards a Sustainable Future in Renewable Energies focused on Geothermal Energy in Peru (2020–2050): A LEAP Model Application. Preprints2024, 2024041366. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202404.1366.v1
APA Style
De la Cruz Torres, D.G., Mazadiego, L.F., Martín, D.B., & Pons-Esparver, R.R. (2024). Long-Term Forecast of Energy Demand Towards a Sustainable Future in Renewable Energies focused on Geothermal Energy in Peru (2020–2050): A LEAP Model Application. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202404.1366.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
De la Cruz Torres, D.G., David Bolonio Martín and Ramón Rodríguez Pons-Esparver. 2024 "Long-Term Forecast of Energy Demand Towards a Sustainable Future in Renewable Energies focused on Geothermal Energy in Peru (2020–2050): A LEAP Model Application" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202404.1366.v1
Abstract
The purpose of the evaluation of the Peruvian energy generation system is to project the electricity generation and demand until the year 2050. To achieve this, three alternative scenarios have been defined and analyzed using the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) software. The scenarios are as follows: the first one, Business-as-Usual scenario, based on normal trends according to historical data and referencing projections made by Peruvian state entities; the second one is focused on Energy Efficiency, the highlighted characteristic is taking into consideration the efficient conditions in transmission and distribution of electric energy; and the third one, centered on Geothermal Energy, focused on the development of this type of energy source and prioritizing it. The primary purpose of this analysis is to identity advantages and disadvantages inherent in each scenario in order to get the best of each one. In this way, the intention is to propose solutions based on Peru’s national reality or possible uses of the country’s energy potential to supply its energy demand. Currently, Peru’s energy demand relies on fossil fuels, hydraulic, and thermal energy. However, there is the possibility of transforming this system into a sustainable one, by strengthening existing and growing energy sources such as solar and wind energy, and new technologies for hydraulic and thermal energy, in addition to considering geothermal energy as the main energy source in the third scenario. The new system mentioned satisfactorily indicate that the CO2 equivalent emissions decrease significantly in the third scenario, with a 15.8% reduction compared to the first scenario and a 9.7% reduction in comparison to the second. On the other hand, the second scenario shows a 5.6% decrease in CO2 emissions compared to the first, resulting from improvements in technology and energy efficiency without requiring significant modifications or considerable investments, as in the third scenario.
Keywords
Energy efficiency; climate change; renewable energy; fossil fuels; geothermal energy; greenhouse gases; energy demand
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Sustainable Science and Technology
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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