Cartron, J.-L.E.; Triepke, F.J.; Stahlecker, D.W.; Arsenault, D.P.; Ganey, J.L.; Hathcock, C.D.; Thompson, H.K.; Cartron, M.C.; Calhoun, K.C. Climate Change Habitat Model Forecasts for Eight Owl Species in the Southwestern US. Animals2023, 13, 3770.
Cartron, J.-L.E.; Triepke, F.J.; Stahlecker, D.W.; Arsenault, D.P.; Ganey, J.L.; Hathcock, C.D.; Thompson, H.K.; Cartron, M.C.; Calhoun, K.C. Climate Change Habitat Model Forecasts for Eight Owl Species in the Southwestern US. Animals 2023, 13, 3770.
Cartron, J.-L.E.; Triepke, F.J.; Stahlecker, D.W.; Arsenault, D.P.; Ganey, J.L.; Hathcock, C.D.; Thompson, H.K.; Cartron, M.C.; Calhoun, K.C. Climate Change Habitat Model Forecasts for Eight Owl Species in the Southwestern US. Animals2023, 13, 3770.
Cartron, J.-L.E.; Triepke, F.J.; Stahlecker, D.W.; Arsenault, D.P.; Ganey, J.L.; Hathcock, C.D.; Thompson, H.K.; Cartron, M.C.; Calhoun, K.C. Climate Change Habitat Model Forecasts for Eight Owl Species in the Southwestern US. Animals 2023, 13, 3770.
Abstract
High-resolution forecasting of vegetation type shifts may prove essential for anticipating and mitigating the impacts of future climate change on bird populations. Here, we used the US Forest Service Ecological Response Unit (ERU) classification to develop and assess vegetation-based breeding habitat profiles for eight owl species occurring in foothills and mountains of the southwestern US. Shifts in mapped habitat were forecast using an ecosystem vulnerability model based on the pre-1990 climate envelopes of ERUs and the A1B moderate IPCC emission scenario of future climate. For five of the eight owl species, regional breeding habitat extent was projected to decline by at least 60% by 2090. Three species, the boreal owl (Aegolius funereus; at the trailing edge of its distribution), flammulated owl (Psiloscops flammeolus), and northern pygmy-owl (Glaucidium gnoma) were projected to experience the steepest habitat-loss rates, or 85%, 85%, and 76%, respectively. Projected vegetation shifts overlaid with well-documented flammulated owl breeding populations showed complete or near complete loss of habitat by 2090 in areas of montane forest currently supporting dense aggregations of owl territories. Generalist or lower-elevation owl species were predicted to be less impacted, while for the whiskered screech-owl (Megascops trichopsis), the contraction of current habitat was nearly offset by a projected northward expansion. In general, the results of this study suggest high exposure to climate change impacts for upper-elevation forest owls of semi-arid southwestern North America. Long distance migration and low natal philopatry may prove important to some montane owl populations for adapting to regional loss of habitat.
Biology and Life Sciences, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
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