In areas with strongly seasonal climates, local people often use complex strategies to manage agricultural production shortages, including diverse activities such as hunting, selling and consuming non-agricultural products, and wage labor. We surveyed all the households in a village in northern Laos to evaluate how such livelihood activities varied during years with differing agricultural production conditions. We compared two years with normal rice production conditions (2010, 2012) and one year with a severe rice shortage (2011) due to a rodent outbreak. Earning wages inside and outside the village was the most important activity for mitigating rice shortages, followed by selling livestock and using/selling non-timber forest products. Villagers also borrowed rice from a village rice bank. Most cash income was earned from selling rice. We concluded that a balance of traditional risk management activities under the swidden system (e.g., raising livestock) with the more recent rice bank system and wages from the market economy will be critical for the sustainable development of mountain villages in northern Laos. Permanent crops and monocultures tend to make local livelihoods more dependent on a single crop, but maintaining the traditional swidden system will help local people to manage agricultural production shortages.

Background: The treatment plan of prosthetic restorations supported by dental implants require comprehensive scientific knowledge to deliver prostheses with good prognosis, even before the implant insertion. This review aims to analyze the main prosthetic determinants of the prognosis of implant-supported prostheses. Methods: A systematic review of the literature was conducted with a PICO question: "For partially or complete edentulous subjects treated with implant-supported prostheses, which prosthetic factors could affect clinical outcomes?". A literature search was performed electronically in PubMed (MEDLINE), Scopus and Cochrane Library with the following equation [PROGNOS* OR RISK] FACTOR IMPLANT DENTAL, and by hand search in relevant journals and throughout the selected papers. Results: This revision was carried out based on 50 papers focused on several prosthodontics-related risk factors that were grouped as follows: implant-connection, loading protocol, transmucosal abutments, prosthetic fit, provisionalization, type of retention, impression technique, fabrication technique, and occlusion. More than a half of the studies were systematic reviews (30%), meta-analysis (16%) or prospective evaluations of prosthesis with various kinds of events (18%). But also narrative reviews of literature (14%) and in vitro/animal studies (16%) were found. Conclusions: The current literature provides insufficient evidence for most of the investigated topics. However, based on the accumulated data, it seems reasonable to defend that the best treatment approach is the use of morse taper implants with transmucosal abutments, recorded by means of rigidly splinted copings through the pick-up technique, and screwed by milled prosthesis occlusally adjusted to minimize functional overloading.

Fogo (Fogo island, Cape Verde Republic) is the youngest and most active volcano of the archipelago. The last eruption occurred in 2014–2015. Aiming at studying dust emissions and transport during the eruption period and assessing their impact on air quality and human health, a mineralogical and chemical characterization was undertaken in outdoor dust from all over the island, as well as in the lava resulting from this event. Air quality monitors were used to obtain concentrations of atmospheric particulate matter (PM) and gaseous pollutants. The mineralogical constitution of the samples was analysed by X-ray diffraction and Electron Microprobe, while the chemical characterization was performed through X-ray Fluorescence Spectrometry and ICP-MS. The volcanic rock was found to be tephritic to basanitic, with high potassium content. Several minerals were identified, such as titanian augite with ilmenite, basaltic hornblendes, pyrrhotites, apatites, pyroxenes, basaltic hornblendes and hematites. Concentrations of the particulate matter inhalable fraction (PM10) exceeded the 24-hour mean of 50 µg/m3 recommended by the World Health Organization. Nevertheless, total volatile organic compounds (TVOCs) showed levels lower than the worrying range. The highest levels of CO2 were recorded in more populated villages and farthest from the volcano. The Pollution Load Index (PLI) for outdoor dust collected on rooftops was always above 1, suggesting enrichment, with higher values in the dust size fraction < 63 µm. In the same way, the Contamination Factor pointed to high enrichment of As, Ni and Pb, and very high enrichment of Cd in the same size fraction. The Non-carcinogenic Hazard Quotient and Hazard Index estimated for Children suggest that health problems may arise. The Carcinogenic Risk, for all size fractions, was above the target risk. The element that most contributed to the global risk was As, followed by Pb and Co. Ingestion was the main exposure route for all size fractions. The dust size fraction that represented the highest risk was < 63 µm, mostly due to the As concentration.

Manufacturing corporations has the acceptance of the Outsourcing Process (OP) to improve industrial activities as well as to archive the revenue objectives, and with this, Risk Analysis (RA) tools are constantly used to assure expected results. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) is one of preferred RA tools, moreover, it is proven that FMEA adds uncertainty because of the human participation at the RA, afterward it is demonstrated that Pythagorean Fuzzy Dimensional Analysis – FMEA – Value Stream Mapping (PFDA-FMEA-VSM) method removes the uncertainty in RA, likewise it aids to the stakeholders for decision making, giving more advantages improving the use of the resources on the project. This document exhibits a real case scenario in a manufacturing firm applying PFDA-FMEA-VSM method adapted for manufacturing OP. The application of PFDA-FMEA-VSM shows solid RA results, removing the human intervention uncertainty added to the risk ranking, gives advantages to the stakeholders for visualize the main risks in detailed diagram, as well as make easier to take better decisions on where to apply resources and mitigate risks during OP.

Excessive vibration of temporary grandstand owing to crowd has lateral rhythmic motions can cause human in panic, which attracted increasing attention in recent years. This paper focuses on experiments that a temporary grandstand occupied 20 participants is oscillated by a shaking table with a series of random waves and induced by crowd with rhythmic swaying motions at lateral direction, respectively. And then a series of vibration perception questionnaires about crowd reaction are obtained. Evaluation of annoying level derives in concept of degree of membership and annoying rate method is proposed, then the human health risk of vibration serviceability of temporary grandstand is assessed with acceleration vibration dose value(VDV). From these results it is clear that standing crowd is more tolerant to vibration than seated crowd. The measured vibrations generated by crowd activities on temporary grandstand can cause panic in crowd. New relationship between the annoyance rate and structural acceleration VDV at logarithmic coordinate is proposed. The findings of this study can be utilized to manage the vibration of temporary grandstand and assess the human health risk.

The current study aimed to: i) Monitor levels of PM₁₀, at Shebika, Haram, Masfala, Azizia, Awali and Mina in Makkah city, KSA during the period of 01 Shawwal 1436H – 27 Rabi Al-Awwal 1437H, by using LVS instruments; and; 2) assess health risk (non-cancer and cancer risks) on humans (children and adult) exposed to PM₁₀ in ambient air of Makkah city.The results showed that: the high PM₁₀ levels were found in Haram site, while the lower levels were found in Awali site. These levels were lower than that set for PM₁₀ by PME (Daily limit of 340 µg/m³). Vehicles emissions and constructions sources may be the main source of PM₁₀ levels in Makkah city. The human health risk assessments showed that: the daily exposure doses of PM₁₀ were ranked in the order: D_ing > D_dermal > D_inh for children and adult in Makkah city. Ingestion of PM₁₀ particles was the main exposure pathway for both children and adults. The HIs and cancer risk values were within the safe level, indicating that (non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic) risks for humans exposed to PM₁₀ in Makkah city were negligible.

Past exploration for U deposit in the Philippines discovered the mineralization of radioactive allanite in Palawan. The allanite occurs as sand component in the heavily populated beach of Erawan, San Vicente, Palawan. This work assessed the risks associated with the radionuclides in Erawan beach by in situ ground radiometric survey of K, U, and Th in 694 sampling points. Principal component analysis (PCA) and Pearson correlation coefficient were used to determine the similarity between the radionuclides and to identify other probable anthropogenic sources of radionuclides. Our results show that the mean activity concentrations of K (597.8 Bq kg^-1) and Th (93.15 Bq kg^-1) are equivalent to 1.5 and 3.1 times of the world average natural radioactivity levels in soil, respectively, while the mean U (34.7 Bq kg^-1) is similar to the world average. The mean radiological risk assessments like radium equivalent, gamma specific activity index, external hazard index, internal hazard index, absorbed gamma dose rate, annual effective dose equivalent, annual gonadal equivalent dose, and excess lifetime cancer risk are 213.96 Bq kg^-1, 0.78, 0.58, 0.67, 97.24 nGy h^-1, 119.25 µSv y^-1, 684.39 µSv y^-1, and 0.42 (10^-3), respectively. Th consistently correlated most to the risks. We attribute the occurrence of Th to the presence of allanite, K to fertilizer use for farming, and U to both the allanite and farming. The results of our study can provide important baseline data for future detailed studies or monitoring of the long-term effects of elevated radiation levels to the local population of Erawan.

Among the array of structurally and toxicologically diverse mycotoxins, aflatoxins have attracted the most interest of scientific research due to their high toxicity and incidence in foods and feeds. Despite the undeniable progress made in various aspects related to aflatoxins, the ultimate goal consisting of reducing the associated public health risks worldwide is far from being reached due to multiplicity of social, political, economic, geographic, climatic, and development factors. However, a reasonable degree of health protection is attained in industrialized countries owing to their scientific, administrative, and financial capacities allowing them to use high-tech agricultural management systems. Less fortunate situation exists in equatorial and sub-equatorial developing countries mainly practicing traditional agriculture managed by smallholders for subsistence, and where the climate is suitable for mould growth and aflatoxin production. A situation that worsens by the climatic change being increasingly suitable for aflatoxigenic mold growth and toxin production. Accordingly, it is difficult to harmonize the regulatory standards of aflatoxins worldwide, which prevents agri-foods of developing countries from access to the market of industrialized countries. To tackle the multi-facetted aflatoxin problems, actions should be taken collectively by the international community involving scientific research, technological and social development, environment protection, awareness promotion, etc. International cooperation should foster technology transfer and exchange of pertinent technical information. This review presents the main historical discoveries leading to our present knowledge on aflatoxins and the challenges that should be addressed presently and in the future at various levels to ensure higher health protection for everybody. In short, it aims to elucidate where we come from and where we should go in terms of aflatoxin research/development.

Objectives: COVID-19, a respiratory disease caused by SARS-COV2 and transmitted from person-to-person through viral droplets remains a global pandemic. There is a need to understand the transmission modes, populations at risk, and how to mitigate the spread and case fatality in the United States (US) and globally. The current study aimed to assess the global COVID-19 transmission and case fatality, examine similar parameters by countries and determine evidence-based practice in extreme epidemiology response in epidemic curve flattening and case fatality reduction. Methods: A cross-sectional ecologic design was used to assess the preexisting data on confirmed COVID-19 cases and mortality in March 2020 from the CDC, WHO, Worldodomter, and STATISTA. A rapid assessment between March 23^rd and 31^st, 2020, was utilized for the extreme epidemiology response. The case fatality, termed fatality proportion, was examined using mortality in relation to confirmed cases involving the world, United States of America (USA), United Kingdom (UK), Italy, France, Spain, China, Germany, India and South Korea. Results: The COVID-19 is a global pandemic, with the US as the epicenter for transmission, representing 20.9% of all confirmed cases worldwide, while Italy is the epicenter for case fatality, 30.6% of mortality as at 03/31/ 2020. The fatality proportion (FP) in Italy was 11.4%, Spain (8.8%), France (6.8%) and UK (6.4%). Despite the increased number of confirmed cases, the lowest FP was observed in Germany (0.96%) and South Korea (1.66%). There is increasing linear tends in transmission in the US, R²=0.97 as well as positive daily percentage change, ranging from 1.27% to 20.5%. Conclusions: The USA remains the epicenter for COVID-19 transmission, while Italy is the epicenter for case fatality. The observed relatively low case fatality in Germany and South Korea is due to an “extreme epidemiology” response through the application of Wuhan, China’s early data on COVID-19 transmission control measures and optimized patient care. These data are suggestive of relaxing the clinical guidelines in the United States in COVID-19 testing, application of contact tracing and testing, case isolation and most importantly enhancing resources for case management and social and physical distancing globally, hence epidemic curve flattening and case fatality reduction.

We introduce and analyse a simple formal thought experiment designed to reflect a qualitative decision dilemma humanity might currently face in view of climate change. In it, each generation can choose between just two options, either setting humanity on a pathway to certain high wellbeing after one generation of suffering, or leaving the next generation in the same state as this one with the same options, but facing a continuous risk of permanent collapse. We analyse this abstract setup regarding the question of what the right choice would be both in a rationality-based framework including optimal control, welfare economics and game theory, and by means of other approaches based on the notions of responsibility, safe operating spaces, and sustainability paradigms. Despite the simplicity of the setup, we find a large diversity and disagreement of assessments both between and within these different approaches.

Traditional edible barbecue products use with lemon juice not only make the barbecue more delicious but also reduce the risk of PAHs in the barbecue products. One of the major economics crops in Taiwan, the waste from citrus fruits was very tremendous mass. However, the peelings of citrus fruits are rich in essential oil, especially, the limonene is the major. Whether the anti-carcinogenesis activities of terpene, such as limonene, in citrus fruits essential oil extraction. This study to demonstrate the PAHs content in fish skin increased markedly after being roasted at 210℃ for 20 minutes and greater mutagenicity risk of roasted fish skin was observed by Ame's test. The reduction of mutagenicity risk of roasted fish skin, which the antimutagenic abilities of substances in descending order were limonene > cold pressure oil > lemon >grapefruit. The antimutagenicity rate and ability of the three extracts were limonene: 18–23%; cold-pressed lemon oil: 18–22%; and steam distilled lemon essential oil: 8–16%. The obvious anti- mutagenicity effects against the PAHs mutagenicity of roasted fish skins can be found in citrus fruits essential oil extraction.

While studies that examined risk perceptions in various environments have been previously conducted, the relationship between risk perceptions measured in such environments had not been examined. Such a relationship, if found, may indicate that when one learns to identify risks in one environment, they may identify risks more easily and quickly in another.This study examined the relationship between measures of risk perception in several separate environments. The findings suggest that when learning to identify and assess risks in a particular environment, one may better identify and assess risks in a similar environment – for example, learning to identify and assess risks while driving makes it easier to identify and assess risks when crossing a road. Conversely, the findings also indicate that learning to identify and assess risks in one environment does not make it possible to better identify and assess risks in a disparate environment – for example, learning to identify and assess risks while driving does not make it easier to identify and assess risks in a workplace environment. This may also suggest that while disparate environments such as the road environment and the workplace environment are perceived as two separate environments, the road environment is experienced as one single environment by both drivers and pedestrians.

Oil has become the object of global exploits and fierce competition among the major world powers as it is a key strategic non-renewable resource. Transnational petroleum investment is therefore an important mechanism available to countries and international corporations to control oil resources even though there are numerous inherent uncertainties and risks. A new risk assessment index system is proposed in this paper based on use of the Delphi expert scoring system and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation that aims to minimize the potential risks inherent to multinational petroleum investment. This approach encapsulates political, legal, socioeconomic, and infrastructural factors to develop a technical method that can be used for transnational petroleum investment risk assessment. An evaluation of oil investment risk within a case study area is also presented; results provide reference data that can be applied by national and international oil companies to mitigate risks of transnational oil investment.

Urban flood risk mapping is an important tool for the mitigation of flooding in view of human activities and climate change. Many developing countries, however, lack sufficiently detailed data to produce reliable risk maps with existing methods. Thus, improved methods are needed that can improve urban flood risk management in regions with scarce hydrological data. Given this, we estimated the flood risk map for Rasht City (Iran), applying a composition of decision-making and machine learning methods. Flood hazard maps were produced applying six state-of-the-art machine learning methods such as classification and regression trees (CART), random forest (RF), boosted regression trees (BRT), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA), and support vector machine (SVM). Flood conditioning parameters applied in modeling were elevation, slope angle, aspect, rainfall, distance to river (DTR), distance to streets (DTS), soil hydrological group (SHG), curve number (CN), distance to urban drainage (DTUD), urban drainage density (UDD), and land use. In total, 93 flood location points were collected from the regional water company of Gilan province combined with field surveys. We used the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) decision-making tool for creating an urban flood vulnerability map, which is according to population density (PD), dwelling quality (DQ), household income (HI), distance to cultural heritage (DTCH), distance to medical centers and hospitals (DTMCH), and land use. Then, the urban flood risk map was derived according to flood vulnerability and flood hazard maps. Evaluation of models was performed using receiver-operator characteristic curve (ROC), accuracy, probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), and precision. The findings showed that the CART method is most accurate method (AUC = 0.947, accuracy = 0.892, POD = 0.867, FAR = 0.071, and precision = 0.929). The results also demonstrated that DTR, UDD, and DTUD played important roles in flood hazard modeling; whereas, the population density was the most significant parameter in vulnerability mapping. These findings indicated that machine learning methods can improve urban flood risk management significantly in regions with limited hydrological data.

In this study, we used the natural and anthropogenic characteristics of a coastal region to generate risk maps showing vulnerability and potential hazards, and proposed design criteria for coastal defense and land use for the various kinds of risks faced. The Yunlin coast: a first-level protection area in mid-west Taiwan, was then used as an example to illustrate the proposed design criteria. The safety of the present coastal defenses and land use of the Yunlin coastal area was assessed, and coastal protection measures for hazard prevention were proposed based on the generated risk map. The results can be informative for future coastal management and the promotion of sustainable development of coastal zones.

This paper investigates the dynamic tail dependence risk between BRICS economies and world energy market in the context of the COVID-19 financial crisis of 2020, to determine optimal investment decisions based on risk metrics. For this purpose, the study employs a combination of novel statistical techniques ranging from Markov Switching, GARCH and Vine copula. Using a dataset consisting of daily stock and world crude oil prices; we find high probability of transition between lower and higher volatility regimes. Furthermore, our results based on the C-Vine copula confirm the existence of two types of tail dependence: - symmetric tail dependence between South Africa and China; South Africa and Russia; and lower tail dependence between South Africa and India; South Africa and Brazil; South Africa and Oil. For the purpose of diversification in these markets, we formulate an asset allocation problem using C-vine copula-based returns and optimize it using Particle Swarm algorithm with a rebalancing strategy. The results show an inverse relationship between the risk contribution and asset allocation of South Africa and oil market supporting the existence of lower tail dependence between them. This suggests that when South African stocks are in distress, investors tend to shift their holdings in oil market. Similar results are found between China and oil. In the upper tail, South African asset allocation is found to have an inverse relationship with that of Brazil, Russia and India suggesting that these three markets might be good investment destinations when things are not good in South Africa and vice-versa.

Background and objectives: Induction of labor (IOL) is an event that occurs in up to one-quarter of pregnancies; less is known about the outcomes and safety of IOL in obese pregnant woman; no data is available on misoprostol vaginal insert (MVI) IOL in high-risk pregnancy obese women. Objectives: (1) to evaluate the rate of successful IOL with 200 μg MVI in obese (Body Mass Index - BMI over 30 kg/m2) high-risk pregnant women: late-term pregnancy, hypertension or diabetes, compared to obese non-high-risk ones; (2) to evaluate the safety profile of MVI in high-risk pregnancy obese patients. Study design: We conducted a cross-sectional study in "Filantropia" Clinical Hospital, Bucharest, Romania, from June 2017 to September 2019 (28 months). From a total of 11,096 registered live births, IOL was performed in 206 obese patients; 74 obese high-risk pregnant patients matched the inclusion criteria; of these, 33.8% pregnancies (n=25) were late-term (41 – 41+6 weeks), 43.2% (n=32) had associated pathologies (hypertension and diabetes); labor induction was guided using a standardized protocol. We evaluated the maternal and gestational age, parity, fetal tachysystole, hyper-stimulation, initial cervical status, time from induction to delivery, drug side effects, mode of delivery, and neonatal outcomes. Results: (a) The overall successful labor induction rate, evaluated by the vaginal delivery rate, was 71.6% (n=53), spontaneously or instrumentally assisted; 28.4% (n=21) births were unsuccessful MVI IOL, converted into caesareans. (b) No significant differences were found regarding the maternal outcomes; in terms of perinatal outcomes of safety, four cases of high-risk pregnancies vaginally delivered were associated with neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admissions and a one-minute Apgar score under seven (5.4%). Most cases with adverse effects of misoprostol have been managed conservatively, except for three emergency C-section cases. Conclusions: Misoprostol vaginal insert is a safe choice in IOL in obese high-risk pregnancies with good maternal and perinatal outcomes.

Hyperkalemia burden in non-dialysis CKD under nephrology care is undefined. We prospectively followed 2443 patients with two visits (referral and control with 12-month interval) in 46 nephrology clinics. Patients were stratified in four categories of hyperkalemia (sK≥5.0 mEq/L) by sK at visit 1 and 2: Absent (no-no), Resolving (yes-no), New Onset (no-yes), Persistent (yes-yes). We assessed competing risks of ESKD and death after visit 2. Age was 65±15 y, eGFR 35±17 mL/min/1.73 m2, proteinuria 0.40 (0.14-1.21) g/24h. In the two visits sK was 4.8±0.6 and levels ≥6 mEq/L were observed in  4%. Hyperkalemia was absent in 46%, resolving 17%, new onset 15% and persistent 22%. Renin-angiotensin-system inhibitors (RASI) were prescribed in 79% patients. During 3.6-year follow-up, 567 patients reached ESKD and 349 died. Multivariable competing risk analysis [sub-hazard ratio-sHR, 95%Confidence Interval-CI] evidenced that new onset [sHR 1.34, 95%CI 1.05-1.72] and persistent [sHR 1.27, 95%CI 1.02-1.58] hyperkalemia predicted higher ESKD risk versus absent, independently from main determinants of outcome including eGFR change. Conversely, no effect on mortality was observed. Results were confirmed by testing sK as continuous variable. Therefore, in CKD under nephrology care, mild-to-moderate hyperkalemia status is common (37%) and predicts per se higher ESKD risk but not mortality.

Risk assessment management have been a hot topic for the researchers since a very long time. Software risk management is an important part of project management as it contains the identification, analysis, estimation and monitoring of different risks present in the system. This helps developers in decision making while assessing the problems that could arise in the software systems. Risk management is very complex in large scale system as these systems have very complex development. The paper describes risk management techniques for large scale system. Furthermore we have provided a detailed comparative analysis of these techniques with commonly identified risks in software systems and have provided a systematic order for risk management process to ensure risk mitigation.

There is a need for developmental screening that is easily administered in resource-poor settings. 1) We hypothesized that known risk factors would predict failed developmental screening on an adapted screening tool in East African children living in poverty. 2) The sample included 100 healthy Ugandan children aged 6-59 months. We adapted a parent-reported developmental screener based on the Child Development Review chart. The primary outcome was failure to meet age-appropriate milestones for any developmental domain. Venous blood was analyzed for lead, and caregivers completed a demographics questionnaire. We used multivariate logistic regression models to determine if elevated blood lead and stunting predicted failure on the screener, controlling for maternal education level, age in months past the lower bound of the child’s developmental age group, and absence of home electricity. 3) In the sample, 14% (n=14) of children failed one or more milestones on the screener. Lead levels or stunting did not predict failing the screener after controlling for covariates. 4) Though this tool was feasibly administered, it did not demonstrate preliminary construct validity and is not yet recommended for screening in high-risk populations. Future research should include a larger sample size and cognitive interviews to ensure it is contextually relevant.

Total Nigeria Plc is a Marketing and Services subsidiary of Total; a multinational energy company operating in more than 130 countries and committed to providing sustainable products and services for its customers. For over 50 years, Total Nigeria Plc has remained the leader in the downstream sector of the Nigerian oil and gas industry. This study investigated the volatility of the stock price of Total Petroleum Nigeria plc using nine (9) GARCH models namely sGARCH, gjrGARCH, eGARCH, iGARCH, aPARCH, TGARCH, NGARCH, NAGARCH and AVGARCH. We also investigated the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Backtesting of the Models. The aim actually of this study is to boost the confidence of the shareholders and investors of the Total Nigeria plc. To achieve this, daily stock price for Total petroleum Nigeria plc from secondary was collected from January 2^nd 2001 to May 8^th 2017. . The study used both normal and student t innovations, using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) to select the best model, for normal innovations for log returns and cleansed log returns of Total plc, the eGARCH and sGARCH models performed best respectively, while NGARCH model performed best for student t innovation for both log returns and cleansed returns of Total plc. The persistence of the models are stable except in few cases where iGARCH, eGARCH where not stable. Also for student t innovation, the sGARCH and gjrGARCH fails to converge. The mean-reverting number of day for the returns of Total Nigeria plc differs from model to model. Evidence from the VaR Analysis revealed from the selected models revealed that the Risk of VaR losses is high at 99% confidence level, slightly high at 95% confidence level and better at 90% confidence level. Although The Duration-Based Tests of independence conducted revealed that the models are correctly specified since in all cases the null hypotheses were accepted. This means that the probability of an exception on any day did not depends on the outcome of the previous day. Finally, both the unconditional (Kupiec) and conditional (Christoffersen) coverage tests for the correct number of exceedances for both Total stock returns and cleansed returns. The tests revealed rejection of the models at 1% level of significance. This confirms that unconditional (Kupiec) and conditional (Christoffersen) coverage tests for the correct number of exceedances are reliable compared to the Duration-Based Tests of independence. Therefore we recommend that shareholders and investors in Total Nigeria plc are to remain and continue to investment in Total Nigeria plc because if there is any form of losses, the price of the stock has the potentials to improve in the future. Again, though the risk is high at 99% confidence level, this in line with the financial theory that states that an asset with high expected risk would pay higher return on the average.

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in street dust pose a serious problem threatening both environment and human health. Street dust were collected from five different land use patterns (traffic areas TRA, urban area URA, residential areas REA, mixed residential commercial areas MCRA and suburban areas SUA) in a Saudi coastal city, Jeddah, and one in rural area (RUA) in Hada Al Sham. This study aimed to investigate the status, profile, sources of PAHs and estimate their human health risk. The results revealed an average concentration of total PAHs of 3320 ng/g in street dust of Jeddah and 223 ng/g in RUA dust. PAHs with high molecular weight represented 83.38% of total PAHs in street dust of Jeddah, while the carcinogenic PAH compounds accounted 57.84%. The highest average concentration of total PAHs in street dust of Jeddah was found in TRA (4980 ng/g) and the lowest in REA (1660 ng/g). PAHs ratios indicated that the principal source of PAHs in street dust of Jeddah is pyrogenic, mainly traffic emission. Benzo(a)anthracene/ chrysene (BaA/CHR) ratio suggests that PAHs in street dusts of Jeddah come mainly from emission of local sources, while PAHs in RUA might be transported from the surrounding urban areas. The estimated Incremental Lifetime Cancer Risk (ILCR) associated with exposure to PAHs in street dusts indicated that both dermal contact and ingestion pathways are major contributed to cancer risk for both children and adults. Based on BaP_equivalence concentrations of total PAHs, ILCR_Ingestion, ILCR_dermal and cancer risk values for children and adults exposed to PAHs in street dust of different areas in Jeddah were found between 10⁻⁶ and 10⁻⁴, indicating potential risk. The sequence of cancer risk was TRA > URA > MCRA > SUA > REA. Only exposure to BaP and DBA compounds had potential risk for both children and adults.

This retrospective study aimed to investigate the effect of known risk factors on nonsurgical periodontal treatment (NSPT) response using a pocket depth fine-tuning multilevel linear model (MLM). Thirty-seven patients (24 males and 13 females) with moderate to severe chronic periodontitis were treated with nonsurgical periodontal therapy. Follow-up visits at 3, 6, and 12 months included measurement of several clinical periodontal parameters. Data were extracted from a database system. Probing depth (PD) and Clinical Attachment Loss (CAL) reductions after NSPT in an overall of 1416 initially affected sites (baseline PD ≥ 4 mm), distributed on 536 teeth, were analyzed against known risk factors at three hierarchical levels (patient, tooth and site). The variance component models fitted to assess the three-level variance of PD and CAL decrease for each post-treatment follow-up showed that all levels contributed significantly to the overall variance (P < 0.001). Patients that underwent NSPT and were continually monitored had very curative results. All three hierarchical levels included risk factors who had impact on the to influence the magnitude of PD and CAL reduction. Specifically, the tooth’s type, surfaces involved and teeth mobility site-level risk factors showed the highest influence on these reductions, being highly relevant factors for the NSPT success.

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) represents an important public health problem with a prevalence between 1.3% and 12.5%. Several population-based randomized trials have evaluated ultrasound screening for AAA providing evidence of a reduction in aneurysm-related mortality in the screened population. The aim of our study was to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of the risk factors for AAA. We conducted a systematic review of observational studies and we performed a meta-analysis that evaluated the following risk factors: gender, smoking habits, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, Coronary Artery Disease and family history of AAA. Abdominal aortic aneurysm prevalence is higher in smokers and in males. It is important to underline that all countries, where AAA screening was set up, had high income level and the majority belong to Western Europe (United Kingdom, Sweden, Italy, Poland, Spain and Belgium). Abdominal aortic aneurysm screening is fundamental for public health. It would avoid deaths, ruptures, and emergency surgical interventions if abdominal aortic aneurysm was diagnosed early in the population target for screening.

Cereals and their derivatives are the basis of human nutrition. However, cereals also contribute to the dietary exposure to toxic metals that may pose a risk. Strengthening food security and nutrition information is a high priority challenge for the Cape Verde Government. The toxic metals content (Cr, Ni, Sr, Al, Cd, Pb) has been determined in 126 samples of cereals and derivatives (rice, corn gofio, corn flour, wheat flour, corn, wheat) consumed in Cape Verde. Wheat flour samples stand out for registering the highest Sr (1.60 mg/kg), Ni (0.25 mg/kg) and Cr (0.13 mg/kg). The results show relevant Al levels (1.17 – 13.4 mg/kg) with its highest levels in corn gofio. The mean Pb average content in the cereals is 0.03 – 0.08 mg/kg with the highest level observed in corn gofio. The Al and Pb levels are lower in cereals without husks. A consumption of 100 g/day of corn gofio provide an intake of 1.34 mg Al/day (13.7% of the tolerable weekly intake established at 1 mg/kg bw/week) and 8 µg Pb/day (20% of the BMDL set at 0.63 µg/kg bw/day for nephrotoxic effects). The minimization of the dietary exposure of the Cape Verdean population to toxic metals is through the importation of higher quality cereals.

Estimating the economic risks of climate shocks and climate stressors on spatially heterogeneous cities over time remain highly challenging. The purpose of this paper is to present a practical methodology to assess the economic risks of climate change in developing cities to inform spatially sensitive municipal climate response strategies. Building on a capital-based framework (CBF), spatially disaggregated baseline and future scenario scores for economic wealth and its exposure to climate change are developed for six different classes of capital and across 77 major suburbs in Cape Town, South Africa. Capital-at-risk was calculated by combining relative exposure and capital scores across different scenarios and with population impacted plotted against the major suburbs and the city’s 8 main planning districts. The economic risk assessment presented here provides a generic approach to assist investment planning and the implementation of adaptation options through an enhanced understanding of relative levels of capital endowment vis-à-vis relative levels of exposure to climate-related hazards over time. An informed climate response strategy in spatially heterogeneous cities need to include spatially sensitive estimates on capital-at-risk and populations disproportionally impacted by climate exposure over time. The economic risk assessment approach presented here helps in advancing to such a goal.

Some herbicides exert hormetic or biphasic non-monotonic dose-response (NMDR), which is one of the major challenges for ecological risk assessment (ERA) of pesticides pollution. In this study, fish embryo toxicity test (FET) with Javanese medaka (Oryzias javanicus) to sublethal concentration of diuron was determined. Inverted U-shape heart rate was observed at 3 days post-exposure (dpe) and 7 dpe. However, at 13 dpe the heart rate (104 ± 2.90 heartbeat/min.) decreased in 10.00 mg.L-1 exposed-embryos. At 20 dpe, hatchability and survival rate were reduced in 5.00 mg.L-1 and 10.00 mg.L-1 exposed groups. Hormetic developmental deformities were observed in embryo-larvae of Javanese medaka. The results revealed a biphasic effect of low concentrations of diuron on some morphological and physiological features of Javanese medaka embryo-larvae, which might be attributed to endocrine disruption of this herbicide. Further studies to support these effects were recommended.

In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, the Financial Stability Board (FSB) and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) created a list of Systemically Important Financial Institutions (SIFIs) with the intention of determining which financial institutions were important enough to the global market that their failure would result in systemic collapse. In this work we create a model that modifies the BCBS's five indicators of size, interconnectedness, cross-jurisdictional activities, complexity, and substitutability and applies these measures of systemic stress to governments. The original application of the model is to track the systemic interdependence of the Eurozone, with particular emphasis on the case of Greece. We anticipate this model can be used in regional fiscal situations beyond the Eurozone.

This scoping study aims to explore the relationships between urban green spaces (UGSs) and cancer. We followed the PRISMA extension for scoping reviews (protocol published in 2018). Eligibility criteria for papers were: 1) to be concerned with UGSs, 2) reporting effects of UGSs on cancer-related outcomes including direct or indirect measures, 3) reporting randomized controlled trials, prospective cohort studies, case studies, observational studies, non-comparative studies, 4) in English or French. The search covered primary studies in the published and unpublished (grey) literatures searching by hand and electronic databases (MEDLINE, Green File, CINAHL and ScienceDirect). Among 1703 records screened by two reviewers independently, 29 were included for qualitative synthesis. We classify the cancers concerned and the effects reported i.e. protective effect, risk or without association. The most investigated cancers are bladder, breast and lung cancer. Our study also identified contributing factors and their mediating effects between UGSs and cancer. Results highlight the wide variety of possible mediating factors between the use of green spaces and cancer occurrence, remission and/or prevention. Knowledge gaps and future research perspectives should be oriented to qualitative research on protective factors, the role of mental health in recovering from cancer and health inequalities.

Coal combustion in thermal power plants releases ash. Ash is reported to cause different adverse health hazards in humans and other organisms. Owing to the presence of radionuclides, it is also considered as a potential radiation hazard. In this study, based on the surface radiation measurements and relevant ancillary data, expected radiation risk zones were identified with regard to the human population residing near the Thermal Power Plant. With population density as the risk determining criteria, about 20% of the study area was at ‘High’ risk and another 20% of the study area was at ‘Low’ risk zone. The remaining 60% was under medium risk zone. Based on the findings remedial measures which may be adopted have been suggested.

The aim of this study was to determine the impact of information technology in management of risks in the capital market-listed company is in Tehran Stock Exchange. The purpose of the present study is an applied descriptive approach. The target population for the survey, companies that from 2009 to the first half of 2015 have been a member of the Tehran Stock Exchange, through Cochranʼs sample size of 140 companies, respectively. We used cluster sampling method. In order to collect data from two questionnaires: risk management questionnaire Foakeh (2013) has 38 items and a standard questionnaire Chanvyas (2006) has 40 items, the whole five-item Likert scale questionnaire is above has been used. Data gathered through the questionnaire, sign the application was 21spss. For inferential analysis of the variables and to analyze the data from different statistical tests and regression was used Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The results showed that information technology on risk management and its dimensions (primary market risk, market risk and the risk of secondary non-financial) impact.

Nigeria is the most populous country in the African continent. The aim of this study was to analyze risk factors for COVID-19 prevalence and deaths in all 6 geopolitical regions and 37 states in Nigeria. We analyzed the data retrieved from various sources, including Nigeria CDC, Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics, Unicef-Nigeria multiple indicator cluster survey and the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington. We examined 4 clinical risk factors (prevalence of TB, HIV, smoking and BCG vaccination coverage) and 5 sociodemographic factors (age ≥65, population density, literacy rate, unemployment and GDP per capita). Multivariate modeling was conducted using generalized linear model. Our analysis showed that the incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases differed widely across the 37 states, from 0.09 per 100,000 in Kogi to 83.7 in Lagos. However, more than 70% of confirmed cases were concentrated in just 7 states: Lagos, Abuja, Oyo, Kano, Edo, Rivers and Delta. Case mortality rate (CMR) per million population also varied considerably, with Lagos, Abuja and Edo having CMR above 9. On bivariate analysis, higher CMR correlated positively with GDP and to a lesser extent with TB and population density. On multivariate analysis, which is more definitive, states with higher HIV prevalence and BCG coverage had lower CMR, while high GDP states had a greater CMR. This study indicates that COVID-19 has disproportionately affected certain states in Nigeria. Population susceptibility factors include higher economic development but not literacy or unemployment. Death rates were mildly lower in states with higher HIV prevalence and BCG vaccination coverage.

Wave energy converter (WEC) arrays deployed in coastal regions may create physical disturbances potentially resulting in environmental stresses. Presently, limited information is available on the nature of these physical disturbance or the resultant effects. A quantitative Spatial Environmental Assessment Tool (SEAT) for evaluating potential effects of wave energy converter (WEC) arrays on nearshore hydrodynamics and sediment transport is presented for the central Oregon coast (USA) through coupled numerical model simulations of an array of WECs. Derived climatological wave conditions were used as inputs to the model to allow for the calculation of risk metrics associated with various hydrodynamic and sediment transport variables such as maximum shear stress, bottom velocity, and change in bed elevation. The risk maps provided simple, quantitative, and spatially-resolved means of evaluating physical changes in the vicinity of a hypothetical WEC array in response to varying wave conditions. Near-field risk of sediment mobility was determined to be moderate in the lee of the densely spaced array, where the potential for increased sediment deposition could result in benthic habitat alteration. Modifications to the nearshore sediment deposition and erosion patterns were observed near headlands and topographic features, which could have implications for littoral sediment transport. The results illustrate the benefits of a risk evaluation tool for facilitating coastal resource management at early market marine renewable energy sites.

Limited understanding exists concerning leptospirosis in Zanzibar. The objective of this study is to evaluate the degree of knowledge and awareness of leptospirosis within the urban and peri-urban populations of Unguja. A cross-sectional study was conducted utilizing semi-structured questionnaires from January to April 2022. Two hundred respondents were randomly selected (130 males and 70 females) aged between 18 and 89 years. Descriptive analysis was employed to assess the main trends in knowledge and awareness, and χ2 analysis was utilized to determine associations between demographic characteristics with respondents’ knowledge and awareness. The majority of respondents (64%) lacked awareness of leptospirosis' etiology, but a significant proportion of respondents had a favorable attitude (68.6%) towards leptospirosis compared to their average knowledge and awareness (35%) and practices (29.3%). Nonetheless, the livestock keeper, farmers, fishermen, and healthcare providers had low levels of knowledge and awareness. The findings also demonstrated that males had a strong association with occupational physical activities, while educational level was associated with preventive practices. Living in urban or peri-urban areas was significantly linked with the respondents' practices. The study's outcomes demonstrated low levels of community knowledge and awareness regarding leptospirosis' etiology, mode of transmission, and symptoms among livestock keepers, farmers, fishermen, and healthcare providers. Although most respondents had a favorable attitude, their low level of knowledge and poor practices indicate that supplementing a positive attitude with enhanced knowledge and awareness is necessary to promote individual engagement in preventive measures.

This paper aims to delve into how gender dimensions observed before, during and after a disaster, have been addressed in two internationally recognised frameworks developed for reducing risks of disasters: Hyogo Framework Action (2005-2015) and Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030). Building on a systematic review, we evaluate 33 scholarly peer-reviewed journal articles, including book chapters and websites in areas of gender, disaster risk reduction and vulnerability. This study documents a comparative picture of these two frameworks and shows the practical implications of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) by addressing women’s empowerment in the light of their active participation in disaster risk reduction process. The findings of the study suggest that the frameworks have discussed the reduction of women’s socioeconomic vulnerabilities, as well as encouraged their empowerment. Comparing the two frameworks, it appears in the current study that there has been a significant gap in the existing literature that does not explicitly document comparing and contrasting features of a gender lens in the policy documents.

Currently there is no multi-hazard risk assessment tool for determining the level of complexity to swiftwater and flood rescue incidents. Traditionally, the International Scale of River Difficulty is used but it is primarily for paddlers for use in a recreational context, without much consideration to the multitude of hazards faced in swiftwater and flood rescue environments. In response to this gap, the ECHO risk assessment tool has been developed and undergone initial testing. This tool provides for simple and rapid codification of multiple hazards and response considerations and is globally applicable. The tool also assigns a final risk assessment colour making the interpretation of the assessment easy to understand and communicate. Though the proposed tool shows potential, further research is needed before it should be operationalised.

Life evolved in an euxinic world with subsequent oxic 'invasion' leading to two parallel but interconnected biospheres, hydrogen sulphide (H₂S) and hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂) exemplify these worlds respectively. Their concentration gradients have informational value in meromictic lakes. Similarly, it is posited, there exists a whole body chemocline in humans in which the two molecules form an inversely coupled oxic/sulphidic oscillator (OSO). The OSO is hormetic and characterised by a range of amplitudes and frequencies in health. Deviations from its baseline profile heralds the onset of SIRS before the appearance of clinical signs. Loss of oscillator status and transition to a steady state causes widespread intercellular and inter-organ communication failure presaging multi-organ dysfunction. The salient clinico-pathophysiological features of SIRS of any aetiology are emergent phenomena related to the OSO profile. Extent of recovery of organ function will mirror the recovery of the OSO profile thereby providing a tool to predict outcomes in SIRS.

Close to half (45.4%) of 2.3 million breast cancers (BC) diagnosed in 2020 were from Asia. While the burden of breast cancer has been examined on the level of broad geographic regions, literature on more in-depth coverage of the individual countries and subregions of the Asian continent is lacking. This review examines the breast cancer burden in 47 Asian countries. Breast cancer screening guidelines and risk-based screening initiatives are discussed.

A study of the water quality of the Adolfo López Mateos Reservoir (ALMD) was developed through different indicators from a spatial and seasonal perspective. Variables related to the general characteristics of water quality, trophic level and ecological risk were assessed through the water Quality Index (WQI_NSF-BROWN), Trophic State Index (TSI_CARLSON) and the Ecological Risk Index (RI_HAKANSON). Using data from physical, chemical and biological parameters obtained from four sampling points in the ALMD, the water quality was assessed in each model used. The results indicated that the reservoir presents a water quality classified as “medium” (WQI_NSF-BROWN = 70), where significant variations in the concentrations of some parameters are observed. The reservoir showed a general trophic state classified as “Mesotrophic” (TSI_{GENERAL-AVERAGE} = 43.04). The ecological risk analysis achieved the best classification of the methodology, discarding contamination by heavy metals in surface waters. Through this type of applied methodologies will help as decision making tools in the dam, as well as for application in other dams in the region.

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was first reported in the U.S. on December 29, 2019 and has spread rapidly throughout the country, affecting individuals with varying severity due to their risk status. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, it is estimated that 45.4% of US adults are at higher risk for complications from coronavirus disease because of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, respiratory disease, hypertension, or cancer. In this study, we developed a mathematical model to assess the impact of a COVID-19 vaccine among low and high risk groups. Numerical simulations shows vaccinating both low and high risk groups simultaneously, rather than prioritizing the vaccine on high risk group only, further reduces the daily mortality. The result supports the need for an aggressive vaccination program, regardless of whether individuals are within the low or high risk population.

Background: Only few studies have studied the link between risk perception and sleep in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study investigates the effect of two distinct risk appraisals—risk perception and perception of collective coordinated defense (PCCD) on Chinese adults’ sleep quality during the COVID-19 pandemic, and tested COVID-19-related fear and rumination as potential mediators of the relationships. Methods: Data were collected using a self-report online questionnaire from a sample of 224 Chinese adults during the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong. Results: COVID-19 risk perception and PCCD were related to poor sleep quality. Mediation analysis showed that both fear and rumination mediated the relationship between risk perception and sleep quality, whereas only fear mediated the relationship between PCCD and sleep quality. The model showed an excellent fit to the data and accounted for 44% of the variance in sleep quality in Chinese adults. Conclusions: This study demonstrates the distinct perceptual processes—risk appraisals in particular—contributed to poor sleep quality in Chinese adults during the COVID-19 public emergencies. These findings would be helpful for policy makers to address the sleep problems induced by psychological consequences of the pandemic.

The relationships among the potential causes of a car and motorcycle collision involving turn maneuvers as well as the perception of rear and front turn signal (on/off) configuration is examined in this paper. The investigation has been based on data pooled from the answers of a survey proposed to 136 people, with special regards to the correct detection of indicators aspect. Experimental videos have been realized during the tests campaign, both in urban and suburban areas, using a 360-camera attached to a motorcyclist’s helmet, reproducing vehicular conflicts able to potentially generate crash risks. The detection of the blinker was combined with other factors (e.g. age, gender, location of the test site, presence of the car behind tester vehicles and if the bikers are also habitual car or bike drivers) in a stepwise logistic regression that modelled the odds of detecting the turn signal turned on as a function of all of these factors. The results suggest the existence of a connection between the detection of the turn signal aspect and some of the variables considered (e.g. age, being a cyclist or a car driver and the presence of a protecting car).

Contract between grower and integrator has been used extensively in broiler industry all over the world. One important advantages of contract is risk management, in which contract shifts a portion of grower risk to integrator. Thus, this paper attempted to measure the amount of risk shifted from grower to integrator and the consequences of this benefit to grower. Using a panel data of actual production records of 46 Indonesian broiler growers for the period of January 2014 through December 2017, we systematically measure the amount of risk shifted to integrator and its consequences to grower. The results showed that 78.43% grower risk is shifted to integrator. However, to acquire this benefit grower receive 15% less income. Furthermore, grower face the possibility of losing their asset and stopping their production as the consequences of entering contract.

In the Republic of Serbia, no comprehensive scientific multimethod research has been conducted to identify weaknesses and opportunities for improving the disaster risk management system. Regarding that, in the paper, author presents project description ,,Strengthening Integrated Disaster Risk Management System in Serbia - DISARIMES” which shall enable strengthening the disaster risk management system through research, development and innovative solutions implementation in the preparation, mitigation, response, remediation and post-disaster phases. The scientific importance of the projected research is reflected in the creation of assumptions for the advancement of theoretical and empirical knowledge in the scientific field of disaster risk management, bearing in mind that it is a relatively young scientific discipline in Serbia. The results of the project research will make it easier for decision makers in Serbia to understand the shortcomings of the system, but also provide innovative opportunities to improve their functioning in conditions of increasingly frequent and serious disasters. Establishing a scientific and professional society in the field of disaster risk management will create sustainable and necessary conditions for the transfer and improvement of knowledge and experience of importance for raising the level of operability of the system of protection and rescue of the Republic of Serbia in the event of disasters. A key contribution of the research findings will be to create a sustainable knowledge base that will be supported by the relevant amount of information regarding innovative capabilities and solutions identified as necessary to raise social resilience to a much higher level. In order to achieve the set goals, DISARIMES makes it possible, through a large number of SWOT analyses and other multimethod studies, to clearly identify and systematize the objective deficiencies and barriers encountered by the disaster risk management system in Serbia in all its stages before, during and after disasters, to identify and implement the appropriate solutions based on this. The objectives of the project are: to assess and identify strengths (advantages), weaknesses (disadvantages), opportunities (innovation potential) and threats for the disaster risk management system in Serbia; to develop and update RDI (research, development, innovation) Roadmap – knowledge databases with innovative solutions and other relevant information for improvement of the disaster risk management system; to fully deploy the DISARIMES scientific-professional network involving a broad range of the disaster risk management scientists and civil protection professions and organisations; to prepare the ground for the disaster risk management policy innovations.

The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) is deemed the most appropriate instrument for assessing violence risks and management because of its balanced approach between dynamic risk and protective factors. Although several facets of reliability and predictive validity of this tool were strong, its inter-rater reliability, construct validity, and implementation in Asian population were under-investigated. The objective of this research was to examine the inter-rater reliability and construct validity of the START: Thai version within forensic psychiatric inpatients. The participants consisted of 118 forensic psychiatric inpatients hospitalized at Galya Rajanagarindra Institute in Thailand. Trained mental health professionals (i.e., psychiatrists, forensic nurses, clinical psychologists, social workers, and occupational therapists) assessed each participant across twenty domains of the Thai START. The inter-rater reliability was examined using the intraclass correlation coefficient and a confirmatory factor analysis for ordinal data was used to test the construct validity of the scale. The main finding showed a good-to-excellent inter-rater reliability and supported two relational constructs (i.e., strength vs vulnerability subscales) of the Thai START. The Thai START is a promising tool for using in Thai forensic psychiatric setting but some items were not significant in contributing to the scale. This study also provides the guideline for implementing the tool in non-Western forensic psychiatric populations.

Fire risk can be defined as the probability that a fire will spread. Reliable monitoring of fire risk is essential for effective landscape management. Compilation of fire risk records enable identification of seasonal and inter-annual patterns and provide a baseline to evaluate the trajectories in response to climate change. Typically, fire risk is estimated from meteorological data. In regions with sparse meteorological station coverage environmental proxies provide important additional data stream for estimating past and current fire risk. Here we use a 60-year record of daily flows from two rivers (Franklin and Davey) in the remote Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area (TWWHA) to characterize seasonal patterns in fire risk in temperate Eucalyptus and rainforests. We show that river flows are strongly related to landscape soil moisture estimates derived from down-scaled re-analysis of meteorological data available since 1990. To identify river flow thresholds where forests are likely to burn, we relate river flows to known forest fires that have occurred in the previously defined ecohydrological domains that surround the Franklin and Davey catchments. Our analysis shows that the fire season in the TWWHA is centered on February (70% of all years below the median threshold), with shoulders on December-January and March. Since 1954 forest fire can occur in at least one month for all but four summers in the ecohydrological domain that includes the Franklin catchment, and since 1964 fire fires could occur in at least one month in every summer in the ecohydrological domain that includes the Davey catchment. Our analysis shows that mangers can use river flows as a simple index that provide a landscape-scale forest fire risk in the TWWHA.

To assess the presence of organochlorine pollutants (OCP) in Alaskan sub-Arctic latitudes, we analyzed ice core and meltwater samples from Jarvis Glacier, a polythermal glacier in Interior Alaska. Jarvis Glacier is receding as atmospheric warming continues throughout the region, increasing opportunity for OCP transport both englacially and into the proglacial watershed. Across all meltwater and ice core samples we identify the pesticides DDT, DDE and DDD, α- HCH and ϒ-HCH. OCP concentrations in ice core samples were highest at the 7-14 m depth (0.51 ng/L of DDT) and decreased gradually approaching the bedrock at 79m. Meltwater concentrations from the proglacial creek slightly exceeded concentrations found in the ice core, potentially indicating aggregate OCP glacial loss, with peak OCP concentration (1.12 ng/L of DDD) taken in July and potentially associated to peak melt. Ongoing use of DDT to fight Malaria in Asia, and the extended atmospheric range of HCH may account for concentrations in near-surface ice, correlating with use and atmospheric transport. The opportunity for biota bioaccumulation of OCPs, or human uptake of OCPs from glacial meltwater, may increase as glacial melt continues.

This research paper is mainly aimed to elaborate the initial risk management and measures which government of Pakistan took towards Novel Corona Virus (COVID-2019). This initial response and planning was devised after the early outbreak of COVID-2019 in Wuhan, China in early time of January 2020. Pakistan devised a comprehensive plan that not to evacuate their student from Wuhan, China. The government of Pakistan in compliance with the National Institute of Health (NIH) devised and documented comprehensive plans such as the flight operations postponed related to Umerah pilgrims, which were intended to go to sacred places of KSA (The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia). The process of visa, immigration policy totally changed and the government of Pakistan notified it officially that, no new visas of visit, student, and business would be issued in due course of uncertainty due to COVID-2019. The government of Pakistan also announced medical emergency and notified through the country’s provinces the process of testing and treatment of COVID-2019. The government of Pakistan also allocated funds for medical supplies and named out the particular country’s best laboratories. The government of Pakistan also locked down all the cities with the emergency announcement that people should stay inside the home in quarantine or self-isolation. NIH (The National Institute of Health) played a vital role in executing the planning to cope with COVID – 2019). The National Institute of Health responded as “The Centre for Disease Control”. In aid to the government, the national army of Pakistan responded in a proactive manner towards planed execution. The medical corps of Pakistan army dedicated themselves to treat the suspected patients of COVID – 2019. Due to plans, policies being documented, implemented in such a way productive way that from February 28, 2020 to till date there is not much critical situation and issues are not present. There are much productive results as there is not much boom in a rise of COVID-2019 patients. This lockdown under the authority of the provinces resulted in fruitful outcomes. Background: On January 02, 2020, authorities of the People Republic of China elaborated that they have encountered with a novel type of infectious viral disease 2019. Later on January 12, the authorities from China elaborated the related sequence of Corona Virus diseases 2019 names as COVID – 2019. When COVID-2019 being identified in Wuhan, Hubei China, as an early response the Government of Pakistan in support of the National Institute of Health (Field Epidemiology & Disease Surveillance Division) published a health advisory about novel coronavirus. Methods: According to Global Health Security Index, Pakistan is ranked as 105th country among 195 countries in GHS index. Overall Score of Pakistan is 35.5. The score of Early Detection and Reporting for Epidemics of Potential International Concern is 41.7. A Graphical depiction of the COVID-19 cases placed until April 10, 2020 as well as a graph trend line of recovered as well as death rate is also depicted. According to the graphical facts of Government of Pakistan and World meters, the recovery rate of COVID-19 is about 98 percent and 2.1 percent death rate is reported against the total cases. Trend analysis with line graph was drawn based on available data from official dashboard web portal of the government of Pakistan and worldometers.info. Data figures were incorporated from March to August 18, 2020 in MS Excel and then subsequently deployed to draw trend analysis from managing risk to recovery. Results: The line graph showed a slowdown in the COVID-19 cases and high rate of recoveries from COVID-19 in Pakistan. On March 11, 2020, there were 20 confirmed cases of coronavirus reported in Pakistan. No death was recorded in very first seven days, on March 18, 2020 only two deaths were reported. On August 18, 2020, there were 272128 recoveries, 6201 deaths, total confirmed cases 290445, and total test were 2340072 in Pakistan. As a results, we can report that due to early measures taken by government of Pakistan no mass scale destruction in terms of death and cases been recorded in Pakistan. Conclusions: To till date, the government of Pakistan tried its level best to minimize the coronavirus cases as much as they can. However, the ending of the potential attack of an outbreak would depend upon the well organized and coordinated approach at all levels such as true directed decisions, fully preparedness, as well implementation and evaluation of continuous decisions. As the recovery rate of the cases is 98 percent and merely death rate is 2.1 percent, concluded that in future it would be a good sign to stop the potential outbreak. Also, lock down as well as precautionary measurement taken by the provincial governments resulted a decline number of COVID-19 cases in the country. Another good sign is that merely 4 percent population of Pakistan is of more than 60 years of old it can be concluded that there are less chances of mass death due to outbreak of COVID-19.

The study of the distribution and health risk assessment is meaningful to provide basic data for environmental management．To investigate the pollution of potential toxic organics and their health risk to human beings, water samples were collected at 7 sites of main surface water of Beijing during wet and dry seasons respectively. The targeted 92 organics were detected, including phthalates (PAEs), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and phenols. The results showed that: there were 56 organics detected out, and the number ratios of detected compounds to the total compounds of the same kind increased as the following: VOCs, phthalates, phenols, PAHs. 8 VOCs were detected in wet season, and 3 in dry season. The concentration of 2,2-Dichloropropane was highest as 10.62ug/L, while the concentrations of other VOCs were below 5ug/L; There were 11 phthalates detected during dry season. The content of Bis(2-methoxyethyl) phthalate was highest as 188.47ng/L; 17 phenols were found in samples during wet season, and the highest concentration was 1244.73ng/L for 4-nitrophenol; PAHs could be detected in all samples, and the detected compounds and the corresponding average concentrations were higher in wet seasons than those in dry seasons, which indicated that non-point pollution was possibly the main pollution source. The health risk assessment of the detected 56 pollutants by using a model from US EPA showed that, the risk caused by the four kinds of toxic organics in this study was in the acceptable ranges.

Uncertainty is the main source of risk of geological hazards in tunnel engineering. Uncertainty information not only affects the accuracy of evaluation results, but also affects the reliability of decision-making schemes. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate and control the impact of uncertainty on risk. In this study, the problems in existing entropy-hazard model such as inefficient decision-making and failure of decision-making are analysed, and an improved uncertainty evaluation and control process are proposed. Then the tolerance cost, the key factor in the decision-making model, is also discussed. It is considered that the amount of change in risk value (R1) can better reflect the psychological behaviour of decision-makers. Thirdly, common attribute decision models, such as the expected utility-entropy model, are analysed, and then the viewpoint of different types of decision-making issues that require different decision methods is proposed. The well-known Allais paradox is explained by the proposed methods. Finally, the engineering application results show that the uncertainty control idea proposed here is accurate and effective. This research indicates a direction for further research into uncertainty, and risk control, issues affecting underground engineering works.

Abstract Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing played an important role in analyzing environmental and socio-economic drivers that created favorable condition for malaria breeding as well as in identifying hazard and risk areas. This study gives great emphasis on mapping malaria hazard and risk areas in Gedio zone of SNNPs using geospatial technology. The study identifies two major drivers like Environmental (physical) factors: which provide for the endurance of mosquitoes and Socio-economic factors. The above data were presented and analyzed quantitatively. The content analysis shows that Malaria hazard prevalence areas were mapped based on the environmental factors which are potential of providing good environmental conditions for mosquito breeding. The hazard map was produced using elevation, slope, proximity to breeding sites, and soil type as the factors for breeding mosquitoes. The malaria hazard analysis of the Gedio zone revealed that from the total area, 9.83%, 35.29% is mapped as a very high and high-risk area, whereas, the remaining 38.73%, a 16.14%, and 0.01% were mapped as moderate, low, very low level of malaria hazard respectively. The total area of the study area more than 1/3rd of the area is identified as a very high and high malaria risk area while the rest 2/3rd of an area is considered as a moderate to very low hazard risk zone. Accordingly, very high malaria risk area is found around towns because of population density. Finally, I recommend that the concerned body should have to expand health center, creating awareness of society, especially around populated areas where the risk is high and environmental and individual sanitation can reduce the risk of malaria.

The extensive use of engineered nanoparticles (ENPs) such as zinc oxide nanoparticles (ZnO NPs) in various commercial fields has spurred significant concern about its possible toxicological effects of ZnO NPs on human health and eco-system. Therefore, it is substantial to understand the aggregation phenomena which could attenuate this effect. This data article provides information on aggregation of ZnO NPs under the influence of various parameters of water chemistry. Moreover, Taguchi orthogonal array L27(313) design matrix was used to evaluate the effect of multiple parameters in aqueous solution. The data were obtained from single beam UV-Vis spectrophotometer (Optizen 2120 UV, Mecasys, Korea) using Optizenview 4.2.5 PC interference software, Fourier transform infrared spectrometer (FT/IR-4700, spectroscopy, JASCO Analytical Instruments, Easton, USA) and particle electrophoresis (NanoZS, Zetasizer, Malvern Instruments Ltd, Worcestershire, UK). The dataset draws attention on dominant parameters influencing aggregation of ZnO NPs in water. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) data revealed that electrolyte concentration, type and natural organic matter (NOM) concentration were the most significant parameters. Furthermore, FT-IR data presents a possible mechanism of ZnO NPs stabilization in the presence of different NOM. This data will be helpful for the development of environmental risk assessment strategies and prediction of fate and mobility of other ENPs in the aquatic environment.

Background: In March 2020, a COVID-19 outbreak associated with the Falles Festival in Borriana, Spain, led to significant infections. Methods: In June 2022, we conducted a cross-sectional follow-up study of 473 socially engaged adults aged 18 to 64, examining the cumulative experience after SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination responses. Data included demographic details, lifestyle habits, medical history, infection records, and vaccinations from a population-based vaccine registry. Blood samples were analyzed for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and cellular immunity. We employed a doubly robust inverse weighted probability analysis to estimate the booster vaccine dose's impact on long COVID prevalence and symptom count. Results: 28.1% of participants met the WHO criteria for long COVID, with older individuals showing higher rates. Not complying with long COVID criteria associated with factors including O blood group, higher occupational status, physical activity, three vaccine doses, strong SARS-CoV-2-S-reactive IFNγ‐producing‐CD8+ response, and infection during the Omicron period. Conversely, increased age, high or low social activity, underlying health conditions, a severe initial COVID episode, and reinfection associated with higher long COVID likelihood. A booster dose, compared to one or two doses, reduced long COVID risk by 74% (95% CI: 56.4% to 91.7%) and symptom count by 55.2% (95% CI: 31.6% to 78.7%). Conclusion: Long COVID was prevalent in a significant portion of those who contracted COVID-19, underscoring the need for sustained follow-up and therapeutic strategies. Vaccinations, notably the booster dose, had a substantial beneficial effect on long-term infection outcomes, affirming the vaccination’s role in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 infection consequences.

The planning and decision-making for a distributed energy supply concept in complex actor structures like in districts calls for the approach to be highly structured. Here, a strategy with strong use of energetic simulations is developed, the core elements are presented and research gaps are identified. The exemplary implementation is shown using the case study of a new district on the former Oldenburg airbase in northwestern Germany. The process is divided into four consecutive phases, which are carried out with different stakeholder participation and use of different simulation tools. Based on a common objective, a superstructure of the applicable technologies is developed. Detailed planning is then carried out with the help of a multi-objective optimal sizing algorithm and Monte Carlo based risk assessment. The process ends with the operating phase, which is to guarantee a further optimal and dynamic mode of operation. The main objective of this publication is present the core elements of the planning processes and decision-making framework based on the case study and to find and identify research gaps that will have to be addressed in the future.

Nowadays, environmental circumstances and business rules of organizations are complicate, active and uncertain, so, they cannot assurance their long- term survival through some actions such as, structural changes and methods or relying on creativity of some people in organization. Companies and organizations should prepare conditions to institutionalize entrepreneurial culture in their organization. Corporate entrepreneurship can improve the value of the organization. The entrepreneurial oriented organizations are more responsive for environment and market changes. Opportunity recognition is the base of being successful. The research is applied and in terms of method is descriptive. Data were analyzed, using Linear Regression and Multiple Moderated Regression (MMR) and SPSS software. In this research the effects of organizational entrepreneurship (innovation, proactiveness and risk-taking) on performance of the centers influenced by environmental factors (government’s strategies, competitiveness and technology) as moderating variables, were studied. Furthermore, the study presents that there is a significant positive relationship between organizational entrepreneurship and performance. Although the study does not show any significant moderating effect of environmental factors (Government’s strategies, competitiveness and technology) on the relationship between organizational entrepreneurship and performance, however, the result of the study manifests direct relationship between environmental factors and performance of such centers.

Due to the high effectiveness of cancer screening and therapies, the diagnosis of second primary cancers (SPCs) has increased in women with endometrial cancer (EC). However, there’s no previous literature mentioned about adequate evidence to support screening for SPCs in endometrial cancer. This study was aimed to develop effective risk prediction models of second primary endometrial cancer in women with obesity (Body-mass index; BMI > 25) and this study includes datasets of the incidence of SPCs and the other risks of SPCs in 4480 primary cancer survivors by a hospital-based cancer registry database. In our study, we found the obesity played a key role in SPCs. There’re 10 independent variables used as predicting variables, which corelated to obesity should be monitored for the early detection of SPCs in endometrial cancer. In conclusion, it is a promising SPCs prediction. The proposed scheme can support the important influence of obesity and clinical data representations in all cases after primary treatments. Our results suggested that obesity is still a crucial risk factor to SPCs in endometrial cancer.

In the context of seismic risk, studying the characteristics of urban soils and of the built environment means adopting a holistic vision of the city taking a step forward compared to the current microzonation approach. Based on this principle, CLARA WebGIS aims to collect, organise, and disseminate the available information on soils and buildings in the urban area of Matera. The geodatabase is populated with i) 488 downloadable geological, geotechnical, geophysical, surveys; ii) geological, geomorphological, and seismic homogeneous microzones maps and iii) a new Digital Surface Model. The CLARA WebGIS (https://smartcities-matera-clara.imaa.cnr.it/) is the first publicly available database reporting for the whole urban area the spatial distribution of the fundamental frequencies for soils and the overlying 4043 buildings, along with probability levels of soil-building resonance. The WebGIS is addressed to a broad target of end users (local government, engineers, and geologists, etc.) as a support to the implementation of seismic risk mitigation strategies in terms of urban planning, seismic retrofitting, and management of post-earthquake crises. We recommend that the database be managed by local administrators, who would also have the task of deciding on future developments and continuous updating as new data becomes available.

OBJETIVE: This study analyses the views of four groups of healthcare professionals who may play a role in the management of suicidal behaviour. The goal was to identify key factors for suicide prevention in different areas of the healthcare system. METHODOLOGY: Qualitative research was conducted using focus groups made up of different healthcare professionals who participated in the identification, management and prevention of suicidal behaviour. Professionals included were primary care physicians, psychologists, psychiatrists and emergency physicians. RESULTS: ‘Suicide’ was amongst the most relevant terms that came up in discussions most of the times it appeared associated with words such as ‘risk’, ‘danger’ or ‘harm’. In the analysis by categories, the four groups of professionals agreed that interventions in at-risk behaviours are first in importance. Prevention was the second main concern with greater significance among psychiatrists. DISCUSSION: Primary care professionals claim for more time to address patients at risk for suicide and an easier access to and communication with the mental health network. Emergency care professionals have a lack of awareness of their role in the detection of risk for suicide in patients who seek attention at emergency care facilities for reasons of general somatic issues. Mental health care professionals are in high demand in case of self-harm but they would like to receive specific training in dealing with g suicidal behaviour.

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the timing of innovative investment in technology product life cycles using a compound binomial option with management flexibility. Considering the business cycles changes in the macroeconomic will affect consumer purchasing power. The focus is how to evaluate the optimal investment strategy and the project value. It was applied to different product stages (three stages including production innovation, manufacture innovation, and operation innovation) and factored to different risks to build a technology innovation strategy model. An aim of this study is the options premium of the best strategy timing for each innovation stage. Its application of the compound binomial options for the manufacture innovation will only be considered after the execution of the production innovation. The same condition is applied to the operation innovation, which will only be considered after the execution of the manufacture innovation. Then, this paper constructs the dynamic investment sequential decision model, assesses the feasibility of an investment strategy, and makes a decision on the appropriate project value and options premium for each stage under the possible change of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This paper investigates the product life cycle innovation investment topic by using the compound binomial options method and will provide a more flexible strategy decision compared with other trend forecast criteria.

Worldwide, there is a significant increase in the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) by emergency services. They offer a lot of possibilities during the rescue operation. Such a wide application for various purposes and environments causes many threats related to their use. To minimize the risks associated with conducting air operations with UAVs, the SORA methodology will be important. Due to its level of detail, it is a methodology adapted to civilian use. In this article, the authors' team will try to develop guidelines and directions for adapting SORA to the requirements of the operational work of emergency services. Thus following article aims to present the most important risks related to conducting operations with the use of UAVs by First Responders (FRs) and to show the sample risk analysis performed for this type of operation on the example of the ASSISTANCE project. The paper describes, on the one hand, possibilities offered by UAVs in crisis or disaster management and step-by-step Specific Operations Risk Assessment (SORA) and on the other hand, presents possible threats, consequences and methods of their mitigation during FRs missions.

Psychiatric disorders are mental, behavioral or emotional disorders. These conditions are prevalent, one in four adults suffer from any type of psychiatric disorders world-wide. It has always been observed that psychiatric disorders have a genetic component, however new methods to sequence full genomes of large cohorts have identified with high precision genetic risk loci for these conditions. Psychiatric disorders include, but are not limited to, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, autism spectrum disorder, anxiety disorders, major depressive disorder, and attention-deficit and hyperactivity disorder. Several risk loci for psychiatric disorders fall within genes that encode for voltage-gated calcium channels (Ca_Vs). Calcium entering through Ca_Vs is key for multiple neuronal processes. In this review, we will summarize recent findings that link Ca_Vs and their auxiliary subunits to psychiatric disorders. First, we will provide a general overview of Ca_Vs structure, classification, function, expression and pharmacology. Next, we will summarize tools and databases to study risk loci associated with psychiatric disorders. We will examine functional studies of risk variations in Ca_V genes when available. We will review pharmacological evidence of the use of Ca_V modulators to treat psychiatric disorders. Our review will be of interest for those studying pathophysiological aspects of Ca_Vs.

While the foundations of climate science and ethics are well established, fine-grained climate predictions, as well as policy-decisions, are beset with uncertainties. This chapter maps climate uncertainties and classifies them as to their ground, extent and location. A typology of uncertainty is presented, centered along the axes of scientific and moral uncertainty. This typology is illustrated with paradigmatic examples of uncertainty in climate science, climate ethics and climate economics. Subsequently, the chapter discusses the IPCC’s preferred way of representing uncertainties and evaluates its strengths and weaknesses from a risk management perspective. Three general strategies for decision-makers to cope with climate uncertainty are outlined, the usefulness of which largely depends on whether or not decision-makers find themselves in a context of deep uncertainty. The chapter concludes by offering two recommendations to ease the work of policymakers, faced with the various uncertainties engrained in climate discourse.

China's implementation of public-private partnerships projects has been quite effective, involving infrastructure and other livelihood projects, a total of 19 industries, and an investment of nearly 1.5 trillion yuan. The characteristics of PPP projects such as long construction period and large investment amount determine the risks of PPP projects are also great, and the PPP projects of comprehensive environmental governance are also the same. The government and social capital use the PPP model to cooperate, and use the principal component analysis method to assess the risks of the entire life cycle of the comprehensive environmental governance PPP project. Therefore, it plays an important role in ensuring the smooth implementation of projects and reducing the losses caused by risks. According to the risk factors of the whole life cycle of the comprehensive environmental governance PPP project, an indicator system of 5 first-level indicators, 18 second-level indicators, and 43 third-level indicators has been established. Principal component analysis is used to analyze the influence weight of risk factors at each stage. The analysis shows that among the four stages, environmental pollution risk, project approval delay risk, completion risk, interest rate and financial fluctuation risk, and franchise life risk are the most influential risks in the implementation of PPP projects. Therefore, suggestions are made through the risk factors of each stage in the comprehensive environmental governance PPP project. For example, strengthen the response to the external environment risks of the comprehensive environmental governance PPP project, standardize the bidding and procurement of the comprehensive environmental governance PPP project, and strengthen the subsequent management of the transfer of the comprehensive environmental governance PPP project. In this way, the ability to resist risks of comprehensive environmental governance PPP projects is improved; the smooth implementation of the project is guaranteed, and the long-term development of comprehensive environmental governance PPP projects is promoted.

Socioeconomic conditions and social attitudes are known to represent epidemiological determinants. Credible knowledge on socioeconomic driving factors of the COVID-19 epidemic is still incomplete. Based on a linear random effects regression, a predictive model is derived to estimate COVID-19 incidence in German rural districts from local socioeconomic factors and popularity of political parties in terms of their share of vote. Thereby, time series provided by Germany's public health institute (Robert Koch Institute) of weekly notified 7-day incidences per 100,000 inhabitants per district from the outset of the epidemic in 2020 up to December 1, 2021, have been used to construct the dependent variable. Local socioeconomic conditions including share of votes, retrieved from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, have been used as potential risk factors. Popularity of the right-wing party Alternative for Germany (AfD) bears a considerable risk of increasing COVID-19 incidence both in terms of predicting the maximum incidences during three epidemic periods (alternatively, cumulative incidences over the periods are used to quantify the dependent variable) and in a time-continuous sense. Thus, districts with high AfD popularity rank on top in the time-average regarding COVID-19 incidence. The impact of the popularity of the Free Democrats (FDP) is markedly intermittent in the course of time showing two pronounced peaks in incidence but also occasional drops. A moderate risk emanates from popularities of the Green Party (GRÜNE) and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU) compared to the other parties with lowest risk level. Socioeconomic parameters like \emph{per capita} income, proportions of protection seekers and social benefit claimants, and educational level have negligible impact. To the contrary, incidence significantly increases with population density. In order to effectively combat the COVID-19 epidemic, public health policymakers are well advised to account for social attitudes and behavioural patterns reflected in local popularities of political parties, which are conceived as proper surrogates for these attitudes. Whilst causal relations between social attitudes and the presence of parties remain obscure, the political landscape in terms of share of votes constitutes at least viable predictive "markers" relevant for public health policy making.

Background Pregnancy is a process of maturity for women that requires adaptation to the changes in their new roles. Adjustment to a new role is not easy, especially if the pregnancy is accompanied by risks, so it is necessary to get treatment to minimize complications. Dyad models that optimize husband or family support are very important to prevent the risk of complications and adapt mothers to their new roles. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of the dyad model on high-risk pregnancies. The method used with a literature review is through the collection of articles from Scopus, ebsco, ProQuest and PubMed. The results obtained were articles from Scopus 9, Ebsco 107, PubMed 214 and ProQuest 85 which carried out identification, screening and eligibility for 25 articles. Overall results mention. Journals are categorized into 4 groups, Dyad Model and social support, high-risk pregnancy, maternal role and Self Efficacy. Conclusion, there is an effect of the dyad model on care for high-risk pregnancies.

This paper presents the behavior of decision makers, the possible choices and the strategies 1 resulting from the uncertainties related to the integration of renewable energies. Its uncertainties 2 are the risks associated with the volatility of renewable sources, the dynamics of energy production 3 as well as the planning and operation of the electricity grid. The goal is to model the risk-averse 4 decision-maker’s behavior and the choice of integrating renewable energies into the electrical system. 5 Following a bibliographic approach, we expose a methodology to model the decision-maker’s 6 behavior(risk aversion and predilection for risk) to risk taking. The risk-averse decision maker may 7 adopt nonlinear utility functions. Risk aversion is a behavior that reflects the desire to avoid risk 8 decisions and thus reduces the risk of adverse consequences. A decision support tool is provided to 9 the decision-maker to choose a best-fit strategy based on his preferences. The rational and risk-averse 10 decision-maker would seek to maximize a concave utility function instead of seeking to minimize its 11 cost. Taste or aversion to risk can be modeled by a thematic function of utility.

This study aims to find a communication model of contingency plan for disaster risk management of Sinabung Volcano eruption, in North Sumatera. The object of the research is communication and coordination across the government, non-government organization, and community. This study used planning theory, the concept of communication planning, and types of disaster management plan as tools for analysing. Descriptive qualitative is used as the method. Data collection was obtained from the focus group discussion (FGD), in-depth interviews, observation, and study documentation. There are three stages in descriptive qualitative research that is data reduction, data presentation, and conclusion. An analysis was conducted qualitatively on the program and competence actors. The results found the communication model of disaster risk management through documents of contingency planning to overcome the threat of Mount Sinabung eruption. During the emergency response period a core model was used to reduce the impact of the Mount Sinabung eruption. The contingency plan becomes the Karo District Government’s document. This document were authorized by an authorized official and is ready to be applied to the Emergency Response Operation Plan. Plans for emergency response operations are carried out based on information regarding damage and the need to obtain results of a quick review. Contingency plans are submitted to the legislature for political commitment and support and budget allocation.

Parkinson’s disease (PD) is the most common cause of movement disorder characterized by the progressive loss of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra. It is increasingly recognized as a complex group of disorders presenting widely heterogenous symptoms and pathology. Except for the rare monogenic forms, the majority of the PD cases result from an interaction between multiple genetic and environmental risk factors. The search for these risk factors and the development of preclinical animal models are in progress hand in hand, providing mechanistic insights into the pathogenesis of PD. This review summarizes the studies that capitalize on modeling sporadic (i.e. non-familial) PD using Drosophila melanogaster and discuss their methodology, new findings and future perspective.

Caesarean scar ectopic pregnancy (CSEP) is an uncommon form of ectopic pregnancy. This review defines types of CSEP, discusses pathophysiology, clinical presentation and diagnosis and compares common treatment options and outcomes. The pathophysiology is not yet fully understood. One third of patient are asymptomatic. In symptomatic patients vaginal bleeding and pelvic pain which is usually misdiagnosed as threatened or missed abortion. The main principles of treatment for CSEP are early diagnose, quick management, and maintain reproductive function as much as possible. Up to date; no consensus or guidelines for the treatment and management of CSEP. Management of CSEP depends on the clinical presentation and gestational age. Significant controversy exists regarding management, for this reason, several factors should be considered including age of the patient, myometrial thickness, clinical symptoms, hemodynamic status, fertility preservation.

Functional mobility assessments (i.e., Timed Up and Go) are commonly used clinical tools for mobility and fall risk screening in the aging population. In this work, we proposed a new Mixed Reality (MR)-based assessment that utilized a Microsoft HoloLens^TM headset to automatically lead and track the performance of functional mobility tests, and subsequently evaluated its validity in comparison with reference inertial sensors. Twenty-two healthy adults (10 older, 12 young) participated in this study. An automated functional mobility assessment app was developed based on the HoloLens platform. Mobility performance was recorded with the headset built-in sensor and validated with reference inertial sensor (Opal, APDM) taped on the headset and lower back. Results indicate vertical kinematic measures by HoloLens was in good agreement with the reference sensor (Normalized RMSE ~ 10%). Additionally, the HoloLens-based test completion time was in perfect agreement with clinical standard stopwatch measure. Overall, our preliminary investigation indicates that it is possible to use an MR headset to automatically guide users to complete common mobility tests with good measurement accuracy, thus it has great potential to provide objective and efficient sensor-based mobility assessment.

Introduction: People with schizophrenia have poor cardiometabolic health, with elevated 10-year cardiovascular disease risk (CVD-R) scores and poor quality of life (QOL). There is lack of understanding of these issues in early psychosis. Aims: To quantify CVD-R in people with early psychosis and profile their obesity prevalence, lifestyle behaviours and QOL. Secondary aim was to explore associations between lifestyle behaviours/treatment characteristics and CVD-R/QOL. Method:Baseline data from 81 RCT participants were used to profile cardiometabolic health risks (QRISK®3, BMI and waist circumference). Participants self-reported lifestyle behaviours and QOL. Relationships between modifiable treatment/lifestyle factors and QOL/CVD-R were explored using bivariate analyses. Results: Participants’ relative risk for CVD over 10 years was 1.93 times higher than healthy counterparts; 39% also had an obese BMI and physical QOL was poor. No significant associations were observed between CVD-R or QOL with treatment characteristics and lifestyle factors. Discussion: Despite positive lifestyle behaviours, participants had elevated CVD-R scores and poor physical health related QOL. Quantifying CVD-R with QRISK®3 may highlight the need for health promotion interventions. Implications for practice: Mental health professionals should be alert to elevated cardiometabolic health risks in early psychosis, particularly as these can occur in the context of relatively healthy lifestyle behaviours.

To systematically investigate the epidemiology of breast cancer risk factors in Iran, we performed a systematic search via PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science and Persian databases for identifying studies published on breast cancer risk factors up to March 2019. Meta-analyses were done for risk factors reported in more than one study. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using a fixed/random-effects models.Thirty-nine studies entered into the meta-analysis. Pooling of ORs showed a significant harmful effect for risk factors including family history (OR: 1.80, 95%CI 1.47-2.12), HRT (OR: 5.48, 95%CI 0.84-1.74), ER positive (OR: 1.87, 95%CI 1.41-2.33), PR positive (OR: 1.84, 95%CI 1.38-2.29), stress condition (OR: 2.67, 95%CI 1.84-3.50), passive smokers (OR: 1.68, 95%CI 1.34-2.03), full-term pregnancy at age 30 (OR: 3.41, 95%CI 1.19-5.63), abortion (OR: 1.84, 95%CI 1.35-2.33), sweets consumption (OR: 1.71, 95%CI 1.32-2.11) and genotype Arg/Arg (crude OR: 1.59, 95%CI 1.07-2.10), whereas a significant protective effect for late menarche (OR: 0.58, 95%CI 0.32-0.83), nulliparity (OR: 0.68, 95%CI 0.39-0.96), 13 to 24 months of breastfeeding (OR: 0.68, 95%CI 0.46-0.90), daily exercise (OR: 0.59, 95%CI 0.44-0.73) and vegetable consumption (crude OR: 0.28, 95%CI 0.10-0.46).This study suggest that factors such as family history, HRT, ER and PR positive status, stress condition, passive smokers, late full-term pregnancy, abortion, sweets consumption and genotype Arg/Arg might increase risk of breast cancer development, whereas late menarche, nulliparity, 13-24 months breastfeeding, daily exercise and vegetable consumption had an inverse association with breast cancer development.

Mediterranean climate is marked by arid climate conditions in summer, therefore, crop irrigation is crucial to sustain plant growth and productivity in this season. If groundwater is utilized for irrigation, an impressive water pumping is needed to satisfy crop water requirements at catchment scale. Consequently, irrigation water quality gets worse, specifically considering groundwater salinization near the coastal areas due to seawater intrusion, also triggering soil salinization. With reference to an agricultural coastal area in the Mediterranean basin (Southern Italy), close to the Adriatic sea, an assessment of soil salinization risk due to processing tomato cultivation was carried out. A simulation model was arranged to perform, on daily basis, a water and salt balance along the soil profile. Long-term weather data and soil physical parameters representative of the considered area were utilized in applying the model, also considering three salinity levels of irrigation water. Based on the climatic analysis performed and the model outputs, the probability of soil salinity came out very high, such as to seriously threaten tomato yield. Autumn-winter rainfall resulted frequently insufficient to leach excess salts away from the soil profile and reach sustainable conditions of tomato cultivation. Therefore, alternative cropping strategies were prospected.

The use of multi-gene panels for germline testing in breast cancer enables the estimation of cancer risk and guides risk-reducing management options for tested individuals and their family members. We performed an analysis in our clinical database to identify breast cancer patients undergoing genetic testing with positive reports. We reviewed positive results with respect to the different levels of information provided in the reports; risk estimation and management, cascade family testing, information from secondary findings and actionable information for treatment decision-making. A total of 415 positive test reports were identified with 57.1%, 18.1%, 10.8% and 13.5% of individuals having pathogenic/likely pathogenic variants in high (BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2, PTEN, TP53), moderate (ATM, CHEK2, NBN), low (BARD1, BRIP1, CHEK2, MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, NF1, RAD51C) and with insufficient evidence for breast cancer risk genes (FANCA, FANCM, NBN, MRE11, PMS2, RAD50, RAD51B, XRCC2, MUTYH), respectively. 6.7% of individuals were double heterozygotes with two pathogenic variants. Germline findings in 92% of individuals are linked to evidence-based treatment information and receive risk estimates for predisposition to breast and/or other cancer types. The use of germline findings for treatment decision making expands the indication of genetic testing to include individuals that could benefit from targeted treatments.

In this study, a dynamic mixture copula is used to estimate the marginal expected shortfall in the South African insurance sector. While other studies assumed nonlinear dependence to be static over time, our model capture time-varying nonlinear dependence between institutions and the market. In order to capture time-varying nonlinear dependence, the generalized autoregressive score (GAS) is used to model the dynamic copula parameters. Furthermore, our study implements a ranking that expresses to what degree individual insurers are systemically important in South Africa. We use daily stock return of five South African insurers listed in the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) from November 13, 2007 to June 15, 2020. We find that Sanlam and Discovery contribute the most to systemic risk, while Santam is found to be the least contributor to the overall systemic risk in the South African insurance sector. Our findings would be of paramount importance for the South African regulators as they would be informed that not only banks are systemically important, but some insurers also are systemically important financial institutions. Hence, stricter regulation of these institutions in the form of higher capital and loss absorbency requirements could be required based on the individual business activities undertaken by the company.

Working farm dogs are essential to many livestock farmers. Little is known about factors that influence dogs’ risk of being lost from work. This paper explores risk factors for farm dogs being lost through death, euthanasia and retirement. All enrolled dogs were working and minimum 18 months old. Five data collection rounds were done over four years. Data about dogs were collected from owners and dogs were given physical examinations by veterinarians. Dogs that were lost from work were counted and owner-reported reasons for loss were recorded. Multivariable logistic regression modelling was used to investigate risk factors for loss. Of 589 dogs, 81 were lost from work. Of these, 59 dogs died or were euthanized and 22 were retired. Farm dogs tended to reach high ages, with 38% being 10 years or older when last examined. Acute injury or illness was the most commonly owner-reported reason for loss. Age group (P &lt; 0.0001) and lameness (P = 0.04, OR = 1.8) significantly affected dogs’ risk being lost. These results expand our knowledge about factors that affect health, welfare and work in farm dogs. Further investigation into reasons for lameness may help improve health and welfare in working farm dogs.

COVID-19 is a pandemic with no cure. There is an urgent need for low-cost interventions. Macroclimate work through affecting microclimate. In many situations, man-made microclimate, such as air conditioning, may override the effect of natural macroclimate in determining SARS-CoV-2 pathogenicity. Ambient temperature (AT) has been roughly associated to SARS-CoV-2 transmission. To translate into a feasible practice in controlling COVID-19 pandemic, in-depth and implementable knowledge of AT role in SARS-CoV-2 transmission should be unveiled. This study aimed to determine if there is a ‘safe’ temperature that is comfortable to human beings while significantly inhibitory for SARS-CoV-2 pathogenicity. Data on monthly new deaths or new cases per million population (MDPM or MCPM) and monthly cumulated days with more cases than the previous day (DI) from March 2 to June 30, 2020 were collected from all 118 countries with population over five million. Monthly average AT negatively correlated with the transmission parameters. A significant decrease in transmission was observed when AT reached above 20 ºC. Monthly average (not average high) AT of countries with MDPM <2, MCPM<10, or DI<=7 was found to be between 24.54 and 26.89 ºC (25.18 ºC on average) with average standard error of 4.81. Thus, average AT <20, 20-25, >25 ºC were considered as high, medium, and low risk AT. Furthermore, MDPM in countries with AT <20 ºC were 80.93, 50.23, 13.52, and 5.05 times of those in countries with AT >25 ºC in March, April, May, and June, respectively. MDPM low-risk rates (<2) in countries with AT >25 ºC were 100, 83.33, 52.73, and 52.46%, respectively. In countries with AT <20 ºC, the trends were opposite. Setting indoor temperature to 25 ºC could decrease the need of social distancing for containing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Ventilation and sanitizing the air with ultraviolet light in nonbusiness hours may be additionally effective. Cooling indoor temperature too low may be a reason of COVID-19 outbreak in some high AT countries. Authorities and the general population can evaluate COVID-19 risk level and manipulate microclimate to reduce the risk anywhere anytime based on local day average AT.

Based on a previous risk calculation study along a road corridor, risk is recalculated using stochastic simulation by introducing variability for most of the parameters in the risk equation. This leads to an exceedance curve comparable to that of catastrophe models. This approach introduces uncertainty into the risk calculation in a simple way, which can be used for poorly documented cases to fulfil lack of data. This approach seems to tend to minimize risk or to question risk calculations.

Dengue virus (DENV) is the most common arbovirus disease, with wide spectrum of presentation. Spinal cord involvement in dengue infection (DF) is rare. However, the risk of transverse myelitis (TM) following Dengue has not been systematically assessed. Methods: We undertook a systematic review of the English literature published from January 1974 to December 2017 to assess risk of TM and outcomes following DF. Data sources included MEDLINE, EMBASE Cochrane library, and references within identified articles. Results: We identified 242 potential studies, 62 were duplicates. A further 136 were excluded on the basis of title and abstract and 19 studies did not meet the eligibility criteria on full text screening. We included 25 publications involving 2672 cases of DF. 10.8% (289/2672) had neurological complications, of which 2.3% (61/2672) was TM. For articles reporting epidemiological data, the neurological complication was twice in males compared to female 67.7% (130/192) vs 32.7% (62/192) and 1.5 fold increase TM for males 59.3% (32/54) vs 40.7% (22/54). The mean age at presentation was 33.1years (Range 0.75 – 61), with onset at 11.7days. The method of diagnosing TM due to DF was mainly IgM seropositivity 92% (n=23/25) and the commonest treatment modality was steroid 78.3% (n=18/23). Only half had full recovery 50.8% (n=31/61). There was no mortality following dengue, however, the crude case fatality rate following TM was 3.3% (n=2/61). Conclusion: This review highlights the risk of TM following dengue. Although neurological complications are rare, especially TM, once set in, it is associated with a significant morbidity.

In the last decade, readily available electronic devices have created unprecedented opportunities for teens to access a wide variety of information and media – both positive and negative – on the internet. Despite the increasing number of initiatives taking place worldwide intended to assess and mitigate the online risks encountered by children and adolescents, there is still a need for a better understanding of how adolescents use the internet and what consequences they may face. We conducted a cross sectional online survey of a convenience sample of 733 8th and 9th grade students in Utah. The survey contained eight questions regarding students’ exposure to three types of online risk scenarios: content risk, contact risk, and commercial risk. Independent variables included students’ online behaviors, use of social media and private messaging apps, and adult supervision of online activities. Logistic and negative binomial regression models indicated that female gender, social media use, and chatting with strangers were associated with exposure to multiple unsafe online scenarios. Our results provide critical information to practitioners involved in the development of educational initiatives by building a profile of potentially risky online behaviors and allow them to tailor their initiatives to meet the needs of more vulnerable populations.

Keyhole neurosurgery implies reaching a target area inside the brain through an entry point specified by the neurosurgeon. In order to avoid complications, a risk assessment procedure must be done to establish the minimum risk trajectory from the entry point to the target area. The neurosurgeon establishes the risk values for the brain structure according to the type of intervention. The preset brain structure risk value is used to assess the risk value for each voxel of the brain. This paper proposes an improved risk assessment methodology based on the sum of N maximum risk values for each voxel. Then, risk assessment for a trajectory is done by adding the risk of all voxels that are part of the path. The safest trajectory is defined as the trajectory with the lower risk. Our proposed search trajectory methodology includes a Genetic Algorithm (GA) for finding the safest trajectories. The use of a GA drastically reduces the number of trajectories to analyze, speeding up the planning procedure. The achieved results were qualified by expert neurosurgeons as satisfactory. Our proposed method allows neurosurgeons to calibrate the surgical planning system by allowing them to establish the risk brain structure and the risk value for each structure.

The purpose of work is to quantify the changes of the organism functional reserves during the successive phases of the human health Space-Time Continuum (STC) on the basis of postulates of reliability complex systems theory. The study is devoted to the problem of age-related human involution, which is evaluated not from the causal, but from the kinetic point of view. The analysis of 10 most important basic life support systems of human body — cardiovascular (CVS), respiratory (RS), nervous (NS), digestive (DS), endocrine (ES), immune (IS), excretory (EXS), brain (BS), musculo-skeletal (MSS), hematopoietic (HS) was carried out. Based on this analysis two levels of ensuring the reliability of organism’s work were revealed: sequential and parallel. The system of logical equations for reduced sequential system is: Ys1 = CVS ∧ RS ∧ BS, where ∧ is the notation for the conjunctions of set elements. The system of logical equations for the reduced parallel system is: Ys2 = NS ∨ DS ∨ ES ∨ IS ∨ HS ∨ EXS ∨ MSS ,where ∨ is the disjunction of the scheme elements. Visualization of human STC changes the concept of the kinetics of age-related changes in the organism and the role of determinants of health as a stable factor accompanying a uniform, smooth transition from the most pronounced functions of the body to their gradual extinction. For human STC is formulated the following regularity kinetics of involutionary processes: after 30 years of age in the human body morphological changes regress in arithmetic progression, and the functions of organs in a geometric one. Assumption of health as a state redundancy of functions is suggested.

This study investigates how the determinants including risk preference affect farmers’ decision to adopt SLM practices in upland areas of Vietnam. Empirical data collected through in-depth interviews with 200 farmers in Na Ri district, Bac Kan province were used. The factors affecting SLM adoption of farmers in Na Ri district were examined by the 2SLS or IV-Probit model. The estimated 2SLS regression indicated that there is a set of factors affecting SLM adoption, namely, relative risk aversion, farming experience, farm size, knowledge of SLM, membership in farmers’ organization, number of labors, and slope of farm land. Specifically, relative risk aversion had a negative effect on SLM practices adoption. The farmers who are less risk averse are more likely to adopt more SLM practices. This implies that reducing farmer’ risk exposure could promote SLM practices. This result is also helpful for policymakers to understand farmers’ behaviors and promote the diffusion of SLM practices across regions on a large scale.

There have been several cases of large-scale wind generators (WGs) tripping off caused by untimely fault removing in recent years. Currently, the discoordination between the box-type transformer fuse protection (BTFP) and two-section collecting line current protection (CLCP) brings a security risk to wind farm. In order to ensure the selectivity, the first section (Sec-I) CLCP should be set a enough interval that is longer than the fuse melting time, and another interval is set for the Sec-II CLCP, which weakens the speed of the CLCP. When a fault occurs on the collecting line, there is no doubt that WGs cannot work too long in abnormal operation, which may cause WGs to be placed off the grid. For a power system with high penetration of wind power, large-scale WGs tripping off will cause a great power shortage, and affect the stability of the power system. The selectivity and sensitivity of the CLCP is analyzed in detail to make the CLCP speed better. Considering the fault ride-through ability of WGs, the fault clear time is an important factor to lead to large-scale WGs tripping off. Two main works are done in this paper. The first is to accelerate the speed of the Sec-I CLCP though reducing the protection zone. Another one is introduce the risk assessment module into the CLCP, which not only improve the speed of the CLCP but also ensure the safety of the wind farm during faults. According to the deference in trip-off causes of WGs, the matching functions are created to assess the trip-off risk of WGs on the spot. In the case of fault, the trip-off risk indicators of WGs are timely updated to data sharing center and open to the CLCPs. The set of risk indicators is divided into several subsets according to the risk range. The dynamic changes of the subsets during fault help to improved CLCP scheme. This scheme can accelerate protection speed based on the increasing risk of large-scale WGs tripping off in wind farms. Compared with traditional CLCP, this approach can make the CLCP combines selectivity and speed better based on the analysis of the ride- through ability of WGs.

The current research investigated the environmental risk of the polycyclic musk compounds, Galaxolide® (HHCB) and Tonalide® (AHTN), in the marine environments. These substances are lipophilic, bioaccumulated and potentially biomagnified in aquatic organisms. To understand the toxicity of HHCB and AHTN, we performed acute toxicity tests by exposing marine microalgae (Phaeodactylum tricornutum, Tretraselmis chuii and Isochrysis galbana), crustaceans (Artemia franciscana), echinoderms (Paracentrotus lividus), bivalves (Mytilus galloprovincialis), fish (Sparus aurata) and a candidate freshwater microalga (Raphidocelis subcapitata) to environmentally relevant concentrations (0.005 - 5 µg/L) following standardized protocols. The effects of both substances on microalgae growth were incipient and only I. galbana was sensitive to HHCB and AHTN, with IC10 values of 5.22 µg/L and 0.328 µg/L, respectively. Significant (p < 0.01) concentration dependent responses were measured in P. lividus and M. galloprovincialis larvae developments as well as S. aurata mortality tested with HHCB. The effect of HHCB on P. lividus larvae development was the most sensitive endpoint recorded, producing an EC50 value of 4.07 µg/L. Our results show that HHCB represents a high risk to P. lividus larvae development for early life stages in marine environments.

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a predictive early tooth loss multivariable model for periodontitis patients before periodontal treatment. A total of 544 patients seeking periodontal care at a university dental hospital were enrolled in the study. Teeth extracted after periodontal diagnosis and due to periodontal reasons were recorded. Clinical and sociodemographic variables were analyzed, considering the risk of short-term tooth loss. This study followed the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines for development and validation, with two cohorts considered as follows: 455 patients in the development phase and 99 in the validation phase. As a result, it was possible to compute a predictive model based on tooth type and clinical attachment loss. The model explained 25.3% of the total variability and correctly ranked 98.9% of the cases. The final reduced model area under the curve (AUC) was 0.809 (95% Confidence Interval (95% CI): 0.629 - 0.989) for the validation sample and 0.920 (95% CI: 0.891 - 0.950) for the development cohort. The established model presented adequate prediction potential of early tooth loss due to periodontitis. This model may have clinical and epidemiologic relevance towards the prediction of tooth loss burden.

Methods to handle uncertainty in economic evaluation have gained much attention in the literature and the cost-effectiveness acceptability curve (CEAC) is the most widely used method to summarize and present uncertainty associated with program costs and effects in cost-effectiveness analysis. Some researchers have emphasized the limitations of the CEAC for informing decision and policy makers as the CEAC is insensitive to radial shifts of the joint distribution of incremental costs and effects in the North-East and South-West quadrants of the cost-effective plane (CEP). Furthermore, it has been pointed out that the CEAC does not incorporate risk-aversion in valuing uncertain costs and effects. In the present article we show that the cost-effectiveness affordability curve (CEAFC) captures both dimensions of the joint distribution of incremental costs and effects on the CEP and is therefore sensitive to radial shifts of the joint distribution on the CEP. Furthermore, the CEAFC also informs about the budget impact of a new intervention as it estimates the joint probability an intervention is both affordable and cost-effective. Moreover, we show that the cost-effectiveness risk-aversion curve (CERAC) allows to incorporate risk-aversion into the analysis and can therefore be used to inform decision-makers who are risk-averse. We use data from a published cost-effectiveness model of palbociclib in addition to letrozole versus letrozole alone for the treatment of oestrogen-receptor positive, HER-2 negative, advanced breast cancer to demonstrate the differences between CEAC, CEAFC and CERAC and show how these can jointly be used to inform decision and policy makers.

As for most Mediterranean countries, groundwater is the main resource for irrigation and drinking supply in most parts of Syria, however this resource suffers from mismanagement. In the study area (Northeast of Mt. Hermon), the lack of information makes water management in this area extremely difficult. Assessing groundwater pollution risk is the most essential issue for water resources management, especially in the regions where complex interaction between climate, geology, geomorphology, hydrogeology, water scarcity and water resource mismanagement exist. This complexity leads to significant complication in determining pollution risk of studied system. In the present work, we adopted an Integrative Approach to assess groundwater pollution risk in the study area. This methodology is based on the analysis of hydrogeological characteristic of aquifer system and the available information about socio-economic context and physio-chemical groundwater condition that might affect this system. This approach allowed us to delineate the groundwater pollution risk map based on the analysis of concerning parameters/ indicators. The degree of risk was assessed based as the sum and average of rating of these parameters and indicators for each subarea. Typically, very high pollution risk index was identified over the Quaternary/Neogene horizon, i.e shallow and unconfined aquifer and in the lower part of Jurassic aquifer. In these two parts, the majority of anthropogenic activities are concentrated. Low pollution risk index was found for the outcropping of low permeable Quaternary basalt at the Southern part of the study area. A moderate pollution index was identified for the low/moderate permeability of silt, clay and marly limestone rich horizons of the major part of Neogene aquifer outside of the intersected zones with Quaternary aquifer and for the Paleogene formations. The spatial analysis shows that about 50% of the study area is characterized as being at very high and high pollution risk index. Hence, the overall natural protective capacity of this area is still poor. This study demonstrates the flexibility of the proposed approach to assess groundwater pollution risk in local complex aquifer system characterized by lack of information and data in order to reduce the risk of future groundwater pollution.

Type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) have been strongly associated with single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the TCF7L2 gene. This study investigated the association between rs12255372, rs7903146 and T2DM in a Ghanaian population. A case-control study design was used for this study. A total of 106 T2DM patients and 110 control participants were selected. Basic data collected included body mass index, blood pressure and socio-demographics. Fasting blood samples were collected and used for serum lipid analysis, HbA1c, plasma glucose estimation and DNA extraction. Common and allele-specific primers were designed for genotyping using the Modified Tetra-Primer Amplification assay. Associations were evaluated using logistic regression models. The rs7903146 risk variant was significantly associated with 2.16 vs 4.06 increased odds for T2DM in patients <60 years vs ≥60 years. Both rs7903146 and rs12255372 are significantly associated with increased odds of T2DM in women, overweight/obese; T2DM negative family history (T2DM-NFH) and low-HDL-C. In a multivariate model, rs7903146 but not rs12255372 was significantly associated with 2.18, 5.01 and 2.25 increased odds of T2DM, under the codominant, recessive and additive model, respectively (p<0.05). The association between rs7903146 and rs12255372 with T2DM is more highly associated in a subgroup- women and those with T2DM-NFH, yet have cardiometabolic risk.

With the development of science and technology, buying has become much easier. At the same time, however, impulsive buying has many negative consequences for college students, and the causes of impulsive buying should therefore be explored. To explore the relationship between social exclusion and impulsive buying and its underlying mechanism, this study used the Social Exclusion Scale, Self-Esteem Scale, Risk Preference Scale, and Impulsive Buying Scale to investigate the roles of self-esteem and risk preference in the relationship between social exclusion and impulsive buying among 768 college students (387 were female, Mage = 20.25 years). The results were as follows: (1) when controlling for gender, age, family monthly income, and monthly living expenses, social exclusion significantly and positively predicted impulsive buying; (2) self-esteem played a mediating role between social exclusion and impulsive buying; (3) risk preference moderated the relationship between the second half of the mediating path and the direct path. These results reveal the mechanism underlying impulsive buying in college students, that is, social exclusion will predict the decrease of college students' self-esteem, and low self-esteem will further predict college students' impulsive buying which is a way for them to gain a sense of self-worth. Relatively low risk preference can well alleviate the negative impact of social exclusion and low self-esteem on impulsive buying. What’s more, these results have implications for impulsive buying interventions. Schools should aim to create a good peer atmosphere by making certain rules that help to reduce social exclusion and parents and education departments should cultivate students’ risk awareness to avoid risk behaviors in college students, such as impulsive buying behavior.

This study aimed to investigate the airborne release of N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA) as a result of the dry heat cooking of some meats using charcoal grilling and pan broiling methods. Three types of meat, beef sirloin, pork belly, and duck, were chosen and cooked in a temporary building using the above methods. Air samples were collected in Thermosorb-N cartridges, which were qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed for NDMA using ultra-high performance liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry and high-performance liquid chromatography–fluorescence detection, respectively. Overall, the charcoal grilling method showed higher average NDMA concentrations than the pan broiling method for all types of meat. The highest average concentration was observed for charcoal-grilled beef sirloin (410 ng/m3) followed by pork belly, suggesting that meat protein content and cooking duration are important determinants of NDMA formation. Cancer risk assessment showed that the charcoal grilling of such meats can pose an additional cancer risk for restaurant customers.

Nanoparticles of graphene and carbon nanotubes are attractive materials for improvement of mechanical and barrier properties and functionality of biodegradable polymers for food packaging applications. However, the increase of the manufacture and consumption increases the probability of exposure of human and environment to such nanomaterials, this rising questions about the risks of nanomaterials since they can be toxic. For a risk assessment, it is crucial to know whether airborne nanoparticles of graphene and carbon nanotubes can be released from nanocomposites into the environment at their end-life, or they remain embedded in the matrix. In this work the release of graphene and carbon nanotubes from the poly(lactic) acid nanocomposite films were studied for the scenarios of: (i) biodegradation of matrix polymer at the disposal of wastes; and (ii) combustion and fire of nanocomposite wastes. Thermogravimetric analysis in air atmosphere, TEM, AFM and SEM were used to verify the release of nanoparticles from nanocomposite films. The three factors model was applied for the quantitative and qualitative risk assessment to the release of graphene and carbon nanotubes from nanocomposite wastes for these scenarios. Safety concern is discussed in respect to the existing regulations for nanowastes stream.

The aim of this cross-country research is to examine how the profit and loss sharing mudarabah investment deposits are classified and disclosed in the financial statement of Islamic banks. The cross-country study examined the financial statements of fifty-one fully-fledged Islamic banks. The results of the data analysis show that Islamic banks disclose the mudarabah investment account in different ways. The absence of standardized disclosure for mudarabah investment deposit confuses the stakeholders. This research suggests to the regulators to fully or partially adopt the AAOIFI standards specifically for Islamic financial institutions.

The frequent incidents of oil spills and other forms of pollution arising from crude oil exploration and exploitation (OEE) in the Niger Delta have caused several investigations on Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) pollution. This study aimed at developing a comprehensive report on PAH pollution and its human health risks recorded in the Niger Delta. Studies were extracted from Google Scholar, PubMed, and ResearchGate using a defined selection criterion. The quality of each study was assessed using the Newcastle – Ottawa Scale. Thirty-eight studies were selected with the majority reporting on PAH pollution in aquatic environments. Across all the selected studies, the total number of PAHs recorded ranged from 7 to 28 PAH congeners. Also, PAH potential sources reported in the studies were of pyrogenic and petrogenic sources. PAH concentrations recorded in water, sediment, aquatic organisms (fish and shrimp), soil, dust, and crop samples ranged from below detection limit (BDL) to 450 ± 117.9 mg/L, BDL to 1821.5 mg/kg, 0.005 to 1.098 mg/kg, ND to 4154 ± 3461 mg/kg, 165.1 to 1012 mg/kg, and 0.020 to 3.37 mg/kg, respectively. Majority of the selected studies reported PAH levels which were higher than the permissible limits. Incremental Lifetime Cancer Risk (ILCR) assessment of PAHs in samples ranged from low to high via ingestion and dermal routes of exposure to humans. It is recommended that the Federal Government of Nigeria promotes environmentally friendly operations of OEE. Future studies should focus on PAH pollution in farmlands, ambient air and the associated human and ecological health risks.

This paper presents quantitative research results regarding the influence of demographic factors on the earthquake risk perception of the citizens of Belgrade. This research aims to determine how much the citizens of Belgrade are aware of the risk and prepared to react in the event of an earthquake. The relationship between gender, age, level of education, and facility ownership with risk perception was examined. T-test, One-way ANOVA, and Pearson correlation coefficient were used to examine the relationship between the variables and the earthquake risk perception. The survey was conducted using a questionnaire that was given and then collected online among 235 Belgrade respondents during September 2020. The questions were divided into three categories. The first part of the questionnaire was consisted of general questions about the demographic characteristics of the respondents, then the questions that would determine the level of awareness of the respondents about earthquakes, and finally, the questions for determining the respondents' preparedness. The results of the research show that women have a higher perception of risk. It has been proven that the youngest respondents from the age category of 18-30 have the lowest risk perception. The influence of education level in no case showed a statistically significant correlation with risk perception.

Following the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, several studies have examined the possibility of correlating the virulence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, to the climatic conditions of the involved sites; however, inconclusive results have been generally obtained. Although either air temperature or humidity cannot be independently correlated with virus viability, a strong relationship between SARS-CoV-2 virulence and the specific enthalpy of moist air appears to exist, as confirmed by extensive data analysis. Given this framework, the present study involves a detailed investigation based on the first 20–30 days of the epidemic before public health interventions in 30 selected Italian provinces with rather different climates, here assumed as being representative of what happened in the country from North to South, of the relationship between COVID-19 distributions and the climatic conditions recorded at each site before the pandemic outbreak. Accordingly, a correlating equation between the incidence rate of the pandemic and the average specific enthalpy of atmospheric air was developed, and an enthalpy-based seasonal virulence risk scale was proposed as a tool to predict the potential danger of COVID-19 spread due to the persistence of weather conditions favorable to SARS-CoV-2 viability. For practical applications, a conclusive risk chart expressed in terms of coupled temperatures and relative humidity (RH) values was provided, showing that safer conditions occur in case of higher RH at the highest temperatures, and of lower RH at the lowest temperatures. The proposed risk scale was in agreement with the available infectivity data in the literature for a number of cities around the world.

Among others, road traffic, industrial emissions, commercial activities, smoking and cooking are considered as major contributing factors for the increasing levels of pollutants in atmosphere. High levels of potentially toxic metals and microbes in atmosphere, especially in indoor air, may pose serious threat to human health. Therefore, concentration and associated health risks of potentially toxic trace metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Pb, and Zn) and their risk to human health, and microbial load in indoor air was assessed using air condition (AC) filter dust samples collected from 5 locations representing residential, agricultural and industrial settings of Eastern Province, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The levels of trace metals varied considerably among sampling areas, with the highest levels of Cr and Cd recorded in the Industrial-area sites followed by the Agricultural and Urban-Residential sites. The highest levels of Pb and Fe were found in the Agricultural area sites followed by the Industrial and Urban-Residential area sites. The metals in dust sample, especially Cd, Cr and Pb, showed a considerable health risk through dermal pathway. Among the sites, the highest hazard quotient for these metals was found for Al-Qatif-Industrial areas sites and among the metals it was the highest for Cd. The cancer risk from the metals contained in AC filter dust was negligible. Samples collected from Agricultural and Industrial area sites were substantially contaminated with bacteria and fungi, respectively. Bacterial contaminants were mostly Gram Negative, with considerable antibiotic resistance and haemolytic activity. Thus, indoor air quality as assessed by AC filter dust depicted that a considerable health risk could be posed by the trace heavy metals and microorganisms for a long-term exposure. Furthermore, this study demonstrated that AC filters dust could be a unique and reliable test sample for the assessment of indoor environment.

Since financial institutions faced to fatal scenario like subprime mortgage crisis and COVID-19, the factor-based asset allocation methodology is noticed. Asset-only approach which make to consider restrictive risk volatility as individual assets had limitation of macro factor risk. For instance, an institution which allocated assets by asset-only approach cannot deal with the inflation crisis. We review the problem of the traditional modern portfolio approach that is used by Korean financial institutions. For reasonable investment of institution, we notice improved factor-based allocation approach. The first result of this paper is that Mean-variance approach as considered only return of asset recorded lower performance than multi factor-based portfolio in macro factor crisis. Second, we notice allocation model which can minimize probability passing the liability risk exposed macro factors to investment risk exposed macro factors. There are three steps in multi-macro factor-based asset allocation approach: discovering macro factors and mapping asset classes to individual macro factor. Second, define liability account and mapping as considering income and pay out of institution. Third, minimize correlation of fac-tor-based asset risk with liability volatility. Furthermore, using covariance return of assets to allocate makes Pareto improvement and supports to break Home-bias problems.

Introduction: We investigated the potential effect of smoking on pathological staging in clinically low-risk patients. Material-Methods: Data of 59 patients who were diagnosed with a bladder tumor for the first time and had a single lesion radiologically and endoscopically smaller than 3 cm were investigated, retrospectively. A total of 33 patients who currently smoke or smoked were classified as ever smokers group and 26 patients who did not ever smoke were classified as never smokers group. Pathological diagnoses of the patients in both groups were compared. Results: A total of 9 patients (27.3%) in ever smokers group and 18 patients (69.2%) in never smokers group had Ta disease (p<0.05). Morover, 19 patients (57.6%) in ever smokers group and 5 patients (19.2%) in never smokers group had T1 disease (p<0.05). The number of patients with low grade (LG) tumor were 8 (24.2%) and 19 (73.1%) in ever smoking and never smoking groups, respectively (p<0.05). The number of patients with high grade (HG) tumor were 25 (75.8%) and 7 (26.9%) in ever smoking and never smoking groups, respectively (p<0.05). Ta HG was detected in 9 (27.3%) patients in ever smoking group. In contrast, no patients in never smoking group had Ta HG disease (p<0.05). The number of patients with T1 HG was 17 (51.5%) in ever smoking group and 2 (7.69%) in never smoking group (p<0.05). Conclusion:Smoking seems to associate with pathologically worse stage and grade in patients with primary, single, < 3cm bladder cancer.

Comorbidities can have a cumulative effect on hospital outcomes of care, such as the length of stay (LOS), and hospital mortality. This study examines patients hospitalized with Congestive Heart Failure (CHF), a life-threatening condition, which, when it coexists with a burdened disease profile, the risk for negative hospital outcomes increases. Since coexisting conditions co-interact, with a variable effect on outcomes, clinicians should be able to recognize these joint effects. In order to study CHF comorbidities, we used medical claims data from CMS. After extracting the most frequent cluster of CHF comorbidities, we: (i) Calculated, step-by-step, the conditional probabilities for each disease combination inside this cluster (ii) Estimated the cumulative effect of each comorbidity combination on the LOS and hospital mortality (iii) Constructed (a) Bayesian, scenario-based graphs and (b) Bayes-networks to visualize results. Results show that, for CHF patients, different comorbidity constructs have variable effect on the LOS and hospital mortality. Therefore, dynamic comorbidity risk assessment methods should be implemented for informed clinical decision making in any ongoing effort for quality of care improvements.