Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Modeling the Impact of a Coronavirus Vaccine Among Low and High Risk Populations in the United States

Version 1 : Received: 24 April 2021 / Approved: 26 April 2021 / Online: 26 April 2021 (11:00:59 CEST)

How to cite: Ruffin, R.; Richardson, A.; Iboi, E.A. Modeling the Impact of a Coronavirus Vaccine Among Low and High Risk Populations in the United States. Preprints 2021, 2021040656 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202104.0656.v1). Ruffin, R.; Richardson, A.; Iboi, E.A. Modeling the Impact of a Coronavirus Vaccine Among Low and High Risk Populations in the United States. Preprints 2021, 2021040656 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202104.0656.v1).

Abstract

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was first reported in the U.S. on December 29, 2019 and has spread rapidly throughout the country, affecting individuals with varying severity due to their risk status. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, it is estimated that 45.4% of US adults are at higher risk for complications from coronavirus disease because of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, respiratory disease, hypertension, or cancer. In this study, we developed a mathematical model to assess the impact of a COVID-19 vaccine among low and high risk groups. Numerical simulations shows vaccinating both low and high risk groups simultaneously, rather than prioritizing the vaccine on high risk group only, further reduces the daily mortality. The result supports the need for an aggressive vaccination program, regardless of whether individuals are within the low or high risk population.

Subject Areas

COVID-19; non-pharmaceutical interventions; vaccinations; vaccine doses; pre-existing condition; high risk; low risk

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