Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Economic Risk Assessment of Climate Change at the Urban Scale: The Case of Cape Town, South Africa

Version 1 : Received: 27 February 2021 / Approved: 2 March 2021 / Online: 2 March 2021 (15:47:00 CET)

How to cite: de Wit, M.; Rawlins, J.; Petrie, B. Economic Risk Assessment of Climate Change at the Urban Scale: The Case of Cape Town, South Africa. Preprints 2021, 2021030099 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202103.0099.v1). de Wit, M.; Rawlins, J.; Petrie, B. Economic Risk Assessment of Climate Change at the Urban Scale: The Case of Cape Town, South Africa. Preprints 2021, 2021030099 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202103.0099.v1).

Abstract

Estimating the economic risks of climate shocks and climate stressors on spatially heterogeneous cities over time remain highly challenging. The purpose of this paper is to present a practical methodology to assess the economic risks of climate change in developing cities to inform spatially sensitive municipal climate response strategies. Building on a capital-based framework (CBF), spatially disaggregated baseline and future scenario scores for economic wealth and its exposure to climate change are developed for six different classes of capital and across 77 major suburbs in Cape Town, South Africa. Capital-at-risk was calculated by combining relative exposure and capital scores across different scenarios and with population impacted plotted against the major suburbs and the city’s 8 main planning districts. The economic risk assessment presented here provides a generic approach to assist investment planning and the implementation of adaptation options through an enhanced understanding of relative levels of capital endowment vis-à-vis relative levels of exposure to climate-related hazards over time. An informed climate response strategy in spatially heterogeneous cities need to include spatially sensitive estimates on capital-at-risk and populations disproportionally impacted by climate exposure over time. The economic risk assessment approach presented here helps in advancing to such a goal.

Subject Areas

Economic risk assessment, capital-based framework, six-capital framework, climate response, climate adaptation, urban resilience

Comments (0)

We encourage comments and feedback from a broad range of readers. See criteria for comments and our diversity statement.

Leave a public comment
Send a private comment to the author(s)
Views 0
Downloads 0
Comments 0
Metrics 0


×
Alerts
Notify me about updates to this article or when a peer-reviewed version is published.
We use cookies on our website to ensure you get the best experience.
Read more about our cookies here.