Working Paper Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Trends In Cumulative Incidence and Case Fatality Of COVID-19 in The United States: Extreme Epidemiologic Response

Version 1 : Received: 10 April 2020 / Approved: 12 April 2020 / Online: 12 April 2020 (14:08:15 CEST)

How to cite: Holmes. Jr, L.; Philipcien, G.; Deepika, K.; Chinacherem, C.; Chavan, P.; Williams, J.; Ogundele, B.; Dabney, K.; Poleon, M.; Pelaez, L.; Picolli, T.; John, V.; Stalnaker, L.; Enwere, M. Trends In Cumulative Incidence and Case Fatality Of COVID-19 in The United States: Extreme Epidemiologic Response. Preprints 2020, 2020040191 Holmes. Jr, L.; Philipcien, G.; Deepika, K.; Chinacherem, C.; Chavan, P.; Williams, J.; Ogundele, B.; Dabney, K.; Poleon, M.; Pelaez, L.; Picolli, T.; John, V.; Stalnaker, L.; Enwere, M. Trends In Cumulative Incidence and Case Fatality Of COVID-19 in The United States: Extreme Epidemiologic Response. Preprints 2020, 2020040191

Abstract

Objectives: COVID-19, a respiratory disease caused by SARS-COV2 and transmitted from person-to-person through viral droplets remains a global pandemic. There is a need to understand the transmission modes, populations at risk, and how to mitigate the spread and case fatality in the United States (US) and globally. The current study aimed to assess the global COVID-19 transmission and case fatality, examine similar parameters by countries and determine evidence-based practice in extreme epidemiology response in epidemic curve flattening and case fatality reduction. Methods: A cross-sectional ecologic design was used to assess the preexisting data on confirmed COVID-19 cases and mortality in March 2020 from the CDC, WHO, Worldodomter, and STATISTA. A rapid assessment between March 23rd and 31st, 2020, was utilized for the extreme epidemiology response. The case fatality, termed fatality proportion, was examined using mortality in relation to confirmed cases involving the world, United States of America (USA), United Kingdom (UK), Italy, France, Spain, China, Germany, India and South Korea. Results: The COVID-19 is a global pandemic, with the US as the epicenter for transmission, representing 20.9% of all confirmed cases worldwide, while Italy is the epicenter for case fatality, 30.6% of mortality as at 03/31/ 2020. The fatality proportion (FP) in Italy was 11.4%, Spain (8.8%), France (6.8%) and UK (6.4%). Despite the increased number of confirmed cases, the lowest FP was observed in Germany (0.96%) and South Korea (1.66%). There is increasing linear tends in transmission in the US, R2=0.97 as well as positive daily percentage change, ranging from 1.27% to 20.5%. Conclusions: The USA remains the epicenter for COVID-19 transmission, while Italy is the epicenter for case fatality. The observed relatively low case fatality in Germany and South Korea is due to an “extreme epidemiology” response through the application of Wuhan, China’s early data on COVID-19 transmission control measures and optimized patient care. These data are suggestive of relaxing the clinical guidelines in the United States in COVID-19 testing, application of contact tracing and testing, case isolation and most importantly enhancing resources for case management and social and physical distancing globally, hence epidemic curve flattening and case fatality reduction.

Subject Areas

COVID-19; SARS-CoV2; extreme epidemiology response; population at risk; case fatality

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