Version 1
: Received: 29 June 2020 / Approved: 30 June 2020 / Online: 30 June 2020 (13:10:27 CEST)
Version 2
: Received: 3 July 2020 / Approved: 6 July 2020 / Online: 6 July 2020 (10:25:09 CEST)
How to cite:
Ren, Y.; Chen, S. Determining Role of Air Temperature in Predicting and Controlling COVID-19 Risk Levels Anywhere Anytime Using Multiple Modelling Analyses. Preprints2020, 2020060373
Ren, Y.; Chen, S. Determining Role of Air Temperature in Predicting and Controlling COVID-19 Risk Levels Anywhere Anytime Using Multiple Modelling Analyses. Preprints 2020, 2020060373
Ren, Y.; Chen, S. Determining Role of Air Temperature in Predicting and Controlling COVID-19 Risk Levels Anywhere Anytime Using Multiple Modelling Analyses. Preprints2020, 2020060373
APA Style
Ren, Y., & Chen, S. (2020). Determining Role of Air Temperature in Predicting and Controlling COVID-19 Risk Levels Anywhere Anytime Using Multiple Modelling Analyses. Preprints. https://doi.org/
Chicago/Turabian Style
Ren, Y. and Sifeng Chen. 2020 "Determining Role of Air Temperature in Predicting and Controlling COVID-19 Risk Levels Anywhere Anytime Using Multiple Modelling Analyses" Preprints. https://doi.org/
Abstract
COVID-19 is a pandemic with no cure. There is an urgent need for low-cost interventions. Macroclimate work through affecting microclimate. In many situations, man-made microclimate, such as air conditioning, may override the effect of natural macroclimate in determining SARS-CoV-2 pathogenicity. Ambient temperature (AT) has been roughly associated to SARS-CoV-2 transmission. To translate into a feasible practice in controlling COVID-19 pandemic, in-depth and implementable knowledge of AT role in SARS-CoV-2 transmission should be unveiled. This study aimed to determine if there is a ‘safe’ temperature that is comfortable to human beings while significantly inhibitory for SARS-CoV-2 pathogenicity. Data on monthly new deaths or new cases per million population (MDPM or MCPM) and monthly cumulated days with more cases than the previous day (DI) from March 2 to June 30, 2020 were collected from all 118 countries with population over five million. Monthly average AT negatively correlated with the transmission parameters. A significant decrease in transmission was observed when AT reached above 20 ºC. Monthly average (not average high) AT of countries with MDPM <2, MCPM<10, or DI<=7 was found to be between 24.54 and 26.89 ºC (25.18 ºC on average) with average standard error of 4.81. Thus, average AT <20, 20-25, >25 ºC were considered as high, medium, and low risk AT. Furthermore, MDPM in countries with AT <20 ºC were 80.93, 50.23, 13.52, and 5.05 times of those in countries with AT >25 ºC in March, April, May, and June, respectively. MDPM low-risk rates (<2) in countries with AT >25 ºC were 100, 83.33, 52.73, and 52.46%, respectively. In countries with AT <20 ºC, the trends were opposite. Setting indoor temperature to 25 ºC could decrease the need of social distancing for containing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Ventilation and sanitizing the air with ultraviolet light in nonbusiness hours may be additionally effective. Cooling indoor temperature too low may be a reason of COVID-19 outbreak in some high AT countries. Authorities and the general population can evaluate COVID-19 risk level and manipulate microclimate to reduce the risk anywhere anytime based on local day average AT.
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Commenter: Sifeng Chen
Commenter's Conflict of Interests: Author