Risk Assessment of Transnational Oil Investment Using a Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

Haitao Ma; Zhan Sun; Chuanglin Fang

doi:10.20944/preprints201804.0261.v1

Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 19 April 2018 / Approved: 20 April 2018 / Online: 20 April 2018 (09:11:15 CEST)

Oil has become the object of global exploits and fierce competition among the major world powers as it is a key strategic non-renewable resource. Transnational petroleum investment is therefore an important mechanism available to countries and international corporations to control oil resources even though there are numerous inherent uncertainties and risks. A new risk assessment index system is proposed in this paper based on use of the Delphi expert scoring system and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation that aims to minimize the potential risks inherent to multinational petroleum investment. This approach encapsulates political, legal, socioeconomic, and infrastructural factors to develop a technical method that can be used for transnational petroleum investment risk assessment. An evaluation of oil investment risk within a case study area is also presented; results provide reference data that can be applied by national and international oil companies to mitigate risks of transnational oil investment.

transnational oil investment, risk assessment, Fuzzy-Grey comprehensive evaluation, Delphi expert scoring system, risk factors, evaluation indicators system

SOCIAL SCIENCES, Business and Administrative Sciences

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Risk Assessment of Transnational Oil Investment Using a Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

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