Strengthening Integrated Disaster Risk Management System in Serbia-DISARIMES

In the Republic of Serbia, no comprehensive scientific multimethod research has been conducted to identify weaknesses and opportunities for improving the disaster risk management system. Regarding that, in the paper, author presents project description ,,Strengthening Integrated Disaster Risk Management System in Serbia DISARIMES” which shall enable strengthening the disaster risk management system through research, development and innovative solutions implementation in the preparation, mitigation, response, remediation and post-disaster phases. The scientific importance of the projected research is reflected in the creation of assumptions for the advancement of theoretical and empirical knowledge in the scientific field of disaster risk management, bearing in mind that it is a relatively young scientific discipline in Serbia. The results of the project research will make it easier for decision makers in Serbia to understand the shortcomings of the system, but also provide innovative opportunities to improve their functioning in conditions of increasingly frequent and serious disasters. Establishing a scientific and professional society in the field of disaster risk management will create sustainable and necessary conditions for the transfer and improvement of knowledge and experience of importance for raising the level of operability of the system of protection and rescue of the Republic of Serbia in the event of disasters. A key contribution of the research findings will be to create a sustainable knowledge base that will be supported by the relevant amount of information regarding innovative capabilities and solutions identified as necessary to raise social resilience to a much higher level. In order to achieve the set goals, DISARIMES makes it possible, through a large number of SWOT analyses and other multimethod studies, to clearly identify and systematize the objective deficiencies and barriers encountered by the disaster risk management system in Serbia in all its stages before, during and after disasters, to identify and implement the appropriate solutions based on this. The objectives of the project are: to assess and identify strengths (advantages), weaknesses (disadvantages), opportunities (innovation potential) and threats for the disaster risk management system in Serbia; to develop and update RDI (research, development, innovation) Roadmap – knowledge databases with innovative solutions and other relevant information for improvement of the disaster risk management system; to fully deploy the DISARIMES scientific-professional network involving a broad range of the disaster risk management scientists and civil protection professions and organisations; to prepare the ground for the disaster risk management policy innovations. Preprints (www.preprints.org) | NOT PEER-REVIEWED | Posted: 31 December 2019 doi:10.20944/preprints201912.0410.v1 © 2019 by the author(s). Distributed under a Creative Commons CC BY license. 2


Introduction
The disaster risk increase (Cvetković, 2014;Cvetković & Dragicević, 2014;Dragićević et al., 2013;Ivanov & Cvetković, 2016) (more frequent manifestations of natural hazards, as well as recorded high losses in all spheres of economy and society), accompanied by increasing vulnerability of people and their property, directly imposes the necessity and need of a responsible society in Serbia to improve the degree of its resilience (Cvetković & Miladinović, 2018;Cvetković, 2017;Cvetković, Roder, Öcal, Tarolli, & Dragićević, 2018;Kostadinov, Dragićević, Stefanović, Novković, & Petrović, 2017). In doing so, a serious rethinking of the needs and opportunities for improving the existing disaster risk management system is needed. Disadvantages and limitations of formal legal regulation in the field of disaster risk management (Cvetković & Filipović, 2017), as well as inefficient and untimely implementation and realization of legal solutions alarmingly suggest the necessity of realization of more serious scientific research projects in order to devise concrete and applied proposals for changing the current legal regulations. In addition, there is a growing need to transform the functioning of the system from a reactive to a proactive approach that more emphasizes and implements disaster risk reduction measures and activities. In addition, there is an evident lack of preventive measures (Cvetković et al., 2017;Cvetković, Öcal, & Ivanov, 2019;Цветковић, 2017) to mitigate the effects of disasters, but also insufficiently developed citizens' awareness of their importance. Practice shows there is an inability to overcome existing obstacles (Cvetković, Bošković, Janković, & Andrić, 2019) that prevent subjects and forces of the disaster risk management system from devising, developing and implementing disaster risk reduction measures.
Although comprehensive efforts to reduce the risks of disaster seem to be serious, but not systematic, the consequences of disaster continue to threaten the security of people and their property on the territory of the Republic of Serbia. For example, the floods of 2014 alone caused the death of 51 people, 23 of whom drowned, while 31,879 were temporarily evacuated from their flooded and destroyed homes, 24,000 of them from Obrenovac (UNDAC Report, Floods in Serbia, May 2014). For this reason, strengthening the disaster risk management system through research, development and implementation of innovative solutions in this field can have the effect of reducing disaster risk, which will directly increase the level of safety of citizens and their resilience to the consequences of a disaster.
In the past, catastrophes that have struck certain areas of Serbia have caused enormous material, economic and human losses. After the 2014 floods, in addition to the direct threat to life and human health, total damage exceeded €1.7 billion, accounting for more than 4% of gross domestic product. The innovative solutions that DISARIMES will offer can reduce the direct damage to the public and private sectors. They can also have the effect of reducing the level of losses in major manufacturing sectors such as agriculture, industry, trade and mining, but also damage to critical infrastructure, which is costly to repair. Its impact on reducing the level of vulnerability of critical infrastructure will mitigate the disabling or limitation of the realization of vital state functions (exercise of power, health, education, energy, economic, social and security functions in general).

Concept and methodology
The subject of the scientific research envisaged within the DISARIMES project 1 is a multimethod research and SWOT analysis in order to scientifically explicate factors that disable the strengthening of the disaster risk management system. Within the quantitative research tradition, a large number of surveys will be conducted in which the use of a questionnaire will examine the views of citizens employed in different institutions and organizations, with regard to strengthening the disaster risk management system. A number of semi-standardized interviews and scientific interviews will also be conducted with the executives and top managers of many relevant organizations in the field of disaster risk management.
In addition, an analysis of the contents of existing documentation, regulations and archival material of the RS in the field of disaster risk reduction will be carried out in order to compare them with the documents and regulations of other developed countries. In addition, the implementation of SWOT analysis will create the preconditions for the improvement of the mentioned system based on the use of existing or developed innovative solutions. This will identify all the advantages and disadvantages, that is, the favourable and unfavourable factors of the risk management system, as well as the possibilities for implementing certain innovations in the catastrophe risk reduction system in Serbia. The created analytical framework will enable to obtain all relevant information about the system itself and the external factors within which it exists and about the possibilities for its development. All the strategic opportunities and threats to the disaster risk management system in relation to its strategic strengths and weaknesses will be reviewed. Based on the results of the SWOT analysis, a matrix will be developed to improve the existing system by identifying innovative solutions in the field of the disaster risk management. The obtained results of multimethod research and SWOT analysis will serve as a starting point in the analysis, identification and prioritization of innovative capabilities and solutions for strengthening the system.
In parallel with the implementation of the research activities, the Scientific-Practitioners community will be established as a dynamic scientific and professional network of scientists and practitioners in the field of disaster risk reduction, which will enable the exchange of knowledge and experience, more professional identification of shortcomings and obstacles, as well as innovative opportunities for improvement of the disaster risk management system itself. In addition, in its sustainable development, and after the end of the project, it will provide a solid basis for its institutionalization to provide expert advisory support to decision makers in an increasingly complex decision-making environment. By announcing public calls in the media and established websites, sending emails, direct contacts and other means, all theorists and practitioners who directly or indirectly deal with the mentioned area will be gathered. Strategies and programs will be developed to bring them together and work together to support the implementation of the aforementioned research and SWOT analysis, as well as to analyse, identify and prioritize innovative solutions and opportunities at various stages of the disaster risk management process. In this way, a national consensus of scientists and experts will be created in expressing clearer needs to improve the system itself.
One of the most important parts of the research activities is a regularly updated Research, Development and Innovation Roadmap (= RDI Roadmap), i.e. the creation of a knowledge base that will enable all subjects and forces of disaster risk reduction (from citizens to government bodies) to identify appropriate innovative solutions necessary to raise the efficiency level of the disaster risk management more easily. The structure and functioning of the database will be in line with three innovation groups: innovations in the field of preventive measures, preparedness and mitigation measures (before a disaster); innovations in the field of protection and rescue i.e. response phase and innovation in the field of recovery, reconstruction and rehabilitation (post disaster). The platform itself will be developed in accordance with the latest standards that will make it easy to use. Using all available and accessible online databases, the most up-to-date innovative disaster risk management solutions will be identified that can be implemented to strengthen the protection system in Serbia.
The acquisition of knowledge will be organized in accordance with the latest research findings in the field, new technologies and existing solutions, best practice in reducing disaster risk. The collection, analysis and input of innovative solutions will be followed by appropriate scientific and research work. The results of the research conducted with prioritized innovative solutions will be available in the online knowledge base. The logical structure of the base itself will be developed at the very beginning of the project activities realization. Upon completion of the introduction of most existing innovative solutions, preparation for the ground for disaster risk management policy innovations will begin, which will enable decision makers in Serbia to unequivocally identify the needs and opportunities for improving disaster protection and rescue systems. Preparation will be realized through the development of specific strategies, programs and action plans. In addition, based on the results of the research, models will be developed to improve and strengthen the disaster risk management system in the RS. In the Republic of Serbia, no comprehensive scientific multimethod research has been conducted to identify weaknesses and opportunities for improving the disaster risk management system.
The scientific importance of the projected research is reflected in the creation of assumptions for the advancement of theoretical and empirical knowledge in the scientific field of disaster risk management, bearing in mind that it is a relatively young scientific discipline in Serbia. The results obtained from the research will represent a real treasury of data that will be of strategic and operational importance for the advancement of the scientific and practical sphere of disaster risk management. The research will allow the development of new models and concepts to strengthen the disaster risk reduction system. The social importance of the scientific research is reflected in creation of conditions for improving the security of citizens and their property in the process of improving the disaster risk management system. Comprehensively, the research will generate a wealth of meaningful data on all aspects of the functioning of the disaster risk reduction system and thus enable its sustainable improvement. In addition, the data generated will enable a large number of future researchers to find clear guidelines and recommendations for conducting future research from the field of disaster. Output: Information about methodology for identification of natural disasters to be managed in WB region and all aspects of prevention and consequences in order to define specific competencies for professional practice. Information about trainings for the public sector and citizens for reaction in case of various natural disasters

Impact of project
DISARIMES will increase the innovation capacity in the area of disaster risk management regarding prevention, mitigation and preparedness phase (pre-disaster stage), and response, rehabilitation and reconstruction phases (post-disaster stage) in Serbia.
• DISARIMES will enable the building of a sustainable and open RDI (research, development, innovation) knowledge database that will enable all social actors (from citizens to government bodies) to more easily identify the appropriate innovative solution and implement it at one of the stages (preparedness, mitigation, response and recovery) enhancing your disaster risk management system; • DISARIMES will enable innovation to build an effective, improved and sustainable system of protection and rescue systems, as well as to improve the readiness of citizens, local communities and institutions to respond effectively to disaster conditions, as well as to create comprehensive assumptions underlying the design, development and implementation of measures to achieve them; • DISARIMES will enable the development of a scientific and practitioner network to strengthen disaster risk management in the Republic of Serbia, and which will facilitate the enhanced collaboration of scientists and practitioners with respect to future research, further development and innovation. • DISARIMES will prepare the ground for disaster risk management policy innovation by clearly indicating what research and innovation is needed to further strengthen the disaster risk management system; • DISARIMES will enable transfer of innovative practices and solutions between the disaster risk management system in the developed countries and the existing system of the Republic of Serbia. In the Republic of Serbia, the disaster risk management is a relatively young scientific discipline that is in its development phase. Starting from the multidisciplinary nature of the project, the research will contribute to the gathering of all interested scientists in the field of disaster studies and will enable joint work, transfer of knowledge and experience as well as affirmation in that scientific field. The project will contribute to the exchange of opinions, knowledge, innovations and experiences in the field of disaster risk management between domestic as well as foreign scientists. In this synergy, sustainable preconditions will be created for their further continuous work and cooperation in the design and implementation of scientific research the scientific and social implications of which can greatly raise the level of security and resilience of citizens and communities to disasters.

Dissemination of results
The DISARIMES project implies the use of a wide range of communication and dissemination of information on research results and innovative solutions at all stages of disaster risk management: • The DISARIMERS public website (RDI Roadmap and Knowledge Base & Scientific-Professional Society) and social media (Instagram, Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Research gate, academia.edu etc.); • organized media conferences that will present information on the project, research results and innovative solutions to be implemented in the disaster risk management system; • International scientific conference -International Conference for Disaster Risk Management, which will be held every year and after the end of the project. Within it, all information on project activities and research results will be continuously presented; • In the International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, more volumes will be devoted to the publication of research papers on the results of the project in open access; • scientific papers (national journals -20 papers, international journals -8 papers) in open access will be published in national and international journals; • Publications in the form of monographs, reports and reviews of innovative solutions in open access; • DISARIMES events such as workshops, seminars, trainings, etc.
• A DISARIMES newsletter will be established to be sent to representatives of all entities and the strength of the disaster risk reduction system in the RS. • SharePoint will be established to allow the sharing of documents, files, contact lists, deliverables and all other relevant project documents to all researchers and external experts involved; • Regular telephone conferences between all researchers, as well as among other scientists and experts involved in designing innovative solutions. Research data will be generated by conducting multimethod surveys involving the use of questionnaires and conducting interviews. In addition, all the existing data contained in existing documentation (laws, strategies, reports, notes, etc.) will be used. The survey will generate data relating to all phases of disaster risk management such as identified strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the system, with respect to preventive measures, preparedness and mitigation measures, response and recovery.

Plan for Communication and Dissemination
During the initial stage (first 2-4 project months), communication and dissemination activities will relate to the presentation of project activities, ongoing research activities, as well as the results achieved in establishing a knowledge base and Scientific-Professional Community. During the launch phase (4-12 project months), communication and dissemination activities will relate to the presentation of RDI knowledge base, Scientific-Professional Community, results of SWOT analysis, etc. In addition, at this stage, through promotional activities, a scientific and professional public will be brought together to participate in the development of a knowledge base.
During the expansion phase (12-24 project month), all major results will be presented regarding innovative solutions and opportunities as broadly as possible through all communication channels of the project. At this stage, communication will be established with key political representatives as well as other decision makers in Serbia relevant to strategic disaster risk management.

Exploitation of results
The DISARIMES project is expected to generate Intellectual Property through the obtained results of field research.

Expected results
Intended exploitation

SWOT results
Share results with scientific-practitioner community, political and other institutional partners, where relevant, with academia and industry.

Knowledge base
Promoting knowledge base to all relevant entities and forces of the disaster risk reduction system in order to create preconditions for solving their specific problems. Identified innovative solutions and opportunities for preventive measures, preparedness and mitigation Disseminate these innovative solutions and opportunities as broadly as possible through all communication channels of the project: the DISARIMES Online Knowledge base, Community Platform, social media accounts (Facebook, Instagram, Twitter), public web site, press releases, presentations / tutorials at DISARIMES workshops or events and etc.
Identified innovative solutions and opportunities for response measures Identified grounds for implementation concreted predisaster, response and post-disaster innovation.

Management of knowledge and data
The data that will be generated during the survey will remain anonymous until the completion of their preparation for publication. On all occasions, relevant and accurate information will be published in national and international publications. All arranged data would be available in the form of certain databases within the knowledge base, which will be open access.

Implementation plan
In addition to the personal investigator, a lot of team members will be involved in the implementation of the project activities. The DISARIMES project structure is geared to implementing the major objectives of the project (Table 3.2.). To assess and identify strengths (advantages), weaknesses (disadvantages), opportunities (innovation potential) and threats for the disaster risk management system in Serbia with a particular focus on preparedness, mitigation, response and disaster recovery.

ST1.1.
Analysis, identification and selection of a matrix of factors or indicators for assessment of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats

M1 M1
This task will potentiate the development of a scientific tool or instrument (matrix of factors) that will be used to assess strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the disaster risk management system in Serbia.

ST1.2.
Analysis and identification of the most relevant entities and strengths of the disaster risk reduction system in whose organizations the research will be conducted The collected data will be analysed using various software tools such as SPSS, Atlas ti etc. Upon completion of the analysis, SWOT profiles will be created.

M1 M4
It is related to activities directed towards full deployment of the DISARIMES scientificprofessional network involving a broad range of disaster risk management scientists and civil protection professions and organisations. It will contain several sections: innovation versus pre-disaster, innovation versus response; and innovation relative to the post-disaster.

ST2.1.
Building an open DISARIMES scientificprofessional network to facilitate transfer of knowledge, experience and thoughts regarding all stages of disaster risk management

M1 M2
In order to create a network, the structure, modalities of network operation and the platform itself will be developed that will enable the transfer of knowledge, experience and thoughts regarding all stages of disaster risk management. In addition, it will be networked with the RDI Knowledge Base. Programs and campaigns will be developed to engage scientists and practitioners within the network. There will be certain ways of registration of DISARIMER network members, access and managing the online Network Platform.

ST2.2.
Connecting DISARIMES network to other relevant networks as DAREnet etc.

M3 M4
All networks that are directly or indirectly related to the goals of establishing the DISARIMER network will be identified. Modalities for member coordination and collaboration between these networks will be developed.

ST2.3.
Connecting DISARIMES network to other external experts from other scientific-professional disciplines significant for disaster risk management

M3 M8
In order to facilitate the most optimal innovative solutions, ways, standards and procedures will be developed to establish cooperation with external experts and organizations.

ST2.4.
Support DISARIMES first international scientific disaster risk management conference in Serbia with the aim of implementing innovation solutions.

M12 M16
A program and the first conference in the field of disaster risk management will be organized in Serbia that will bring together all scientists and experts in the mentioned field. Further strengthening and support programs will be developed for the first international journal -the International Journal of Disaster Risk Management in Serbia, in which innovative solutions will be promoted. At the beginning, the logical structure of the database will be developed in relation to the structure and types of information it will contain, how it works and how it is displayed. An online platform (web site) will be created to support the adopted idea of the knowledge base itself. ST3.2.
Reviewing and analysing, M3 M11 Based on the results of the SWOT selecting and prioritising innovative solutions and opportunities for improving preventative, preparedness and disaster risk mitigation measures analysis, using all existing and generated data sources, a large number of publications (scientific articles, standards, books, etc.) and documents will be analysed with the aim of selecting and prioritizing the best innovative solutions in the field of preventive measures, preparedness and mitigation measures for risk disaster.

ST3.3.
Reviewing and analysing, selecting and prioritising, innovative solutions and opportunities for improving response to manifest disaster risks

M12 M18
Based on the results of the SWOT analysis, using all existing and generated data sources, a large number of publications (scientific articles, standards, books, etc.) and documents will be analysed in order to select and prioritize the best innovative solutions in the field of responding to manifested disaster risks.

ST3.4.
Reviewing and analysing, selecting and prioritising, innovative solutions and opportunities for improving disaster recovery measures

M19 M24
Based on the results of the SWOT analysis, using all existing and generated data sources, a large number of publications (scientific articles, standards, books, etc.) and documents will be analysed in order to select and prioritize the best innovative solutions in the field of disaster recovery measures. T4.

M16 M24
To prepare the ground for disaster risk management policy innovations ST4.1.
1) Making the grounds for concreted pre-disaster, response and postdisaster innovation strategies for the future development of identified capabilities

M16 M18
Assumptions tested for easier implementation of innovative solutions in pre-disaster, response and post-disaster stages. Conducting research to develop models for implementing innovative solutions in the area of disaster risk reduction. ST4.2.
2) Developing strategies, programs and campaigns to strengthen the readiness of the disaster risk management system M19 M20 Designing and writing strategies, programs and campaigns to strengthen the readiness of the disaster risk management system in the RS.
3) Designing a civic education and training program for timely and appropriate disaster response

M21 M24
Writing a civic education and training program for timely and appropriate disaster response.  In the project are identified a lot of risks which are required some specific actions must undertaken by team members.

Conclusions
DISARIMES will clearly indicate the possibilities and needs for designing and implementing innovation, which can directly influence the business sector to move towards finding and producing innovative technical solutions for disaster risk management in all its stages (readiness, mitigation, response, recovery, renewal and remediation). It will influence the connection of manufacturers of innovative technical solutions and users themselves through a clear platform of partnership cooperation and support. Innovative solutions in the area of disaster risk reduction can directly contribute to reducing the primary, secondary and tertiary effects of disaster on people and their health if properly implemented. In addition, strengthening the disaster risk management system is also directly related to improving the institutional capacities of the Republic of Serbia health institutions to prevent or mitigate the resulting health consequences in the conditions of a disaster.
In the educational system of the RS, from 1975 until 1993, there was a subject called Defence and Protection, in which students, among other things, acquired knowledge in the field of protection and rescue systems from various types of a disaster. Today, the initiative to introduce a course with similar curriculum content is emerging again. Decision makers can use the research findings when designing strategies and programs to introduce the Security Culture curriculum into primary and secondary school curricula to reduce the disaster risk. In addition, for such a well-designed subject to survive in curricula, it is necessary to define the content and approaches to such issues very clearly. In addition, a knowledgeably selected teaching staff who would provide teaching in the aforementioned subject must, in addition to the educational one, fulfil high pedagogical criteria. In order to gain a deeper understanding of the issue of introducing such a subject, additional research is needed to test the level of acceptability of certain content topics in the field of security, i.e. disaster. The syllabus of the subject should be specified in detail in order to expose serious safety topics to students in a simple, acceptable and engaging way (Cvetković & Filipović, 2018). Through identifying the needs and limitations of education about disasters, DISARIMES will offer innovative solutions in respect of the most appropriate and acceptable way of educating the RS citizens of different age categories. Namely, citizens informed about the risks of disaster in local communities, trained to respond to such situations in a timely and effective manner, adequately equipped to survive such events, are more likely to prevent or eliminate the effects. For these reasons, various educational materials will be developed that will be used to raise the level of citizens' awareness of the natural and technical and technological hazards themselves, as well as of the ways of citizens' adequate response.