Day-ahead forecasting of electricity prices is important in deregulated electricity markets for all the stakeholders: energy wholesalers, traders, retailers, and consumers. Electricity price forecasting is an inherently difficult problem due to its special characteristic of dynamicity and non-stationarity. In this paper, we present a robust price forecasting mechanism that shows resilience towards aggregate demand response effect and provides highly accurate forecasted electricity prices to the stakeholders in a dynamic environment. We employ an ensemble prediction model in which a group of different algorithms participate in predicting the price for each hour of a day. We propose two different strategies, namely, Fixed Weight Method (FWM) and Varying Weight Method (VWM), for selecting each hour's expert algorithm from the set of participating algorithms. In addition, we utilize a carefully engineered set of features selected from a pool of features derived from information such as past electricity price data, weather data, and calendar data. The proposed ensemble model offers better results than both the Pattern Sequence-based Forecasting (PSF) method and our own previous work using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) alone do on the datasets for New York, Australian, and Spanish electricity markets.

There are uncertainties associated with every phase of the stock assessment process, ranging from the collection of data, assessment model choice, model assumptions and interpretation of risk to the implementation of management advice. The dynamics of fish populations are complex, and our incomplete understanding of those dynamics (and limited observations of important mechanisms) necessitate that models are simpler than nature. The aim is for the model to capture enough of the dynamics to accurately estimate trends and abundance and to provide advice to managers about sustainable harvests. The \textit{status quo} approach to assessment modelling has been to identify the `best' model, based on diagnostics and model selection criteria, and to generate advice from that model, mostly ignoring advice from other model configurations regardless of how closely they performed relative to the chosen model. We review the suitability of the ensemble modelling paradigm to more fully capture uncertainty in stock assessment model building and the provision of advice. We recommend further research to evaluate potential gains in modelling performance and advice from the use of ensemble modelling, while also suggesting revisions to the formal process for reviewing models and providing advice to management bodies.

Ransomware is one of the most dangerous types of malware, which is frequently intended to spread through a network to damage the designated client by encrypting the client’s vulnerable data. Conventional signature-based ransomware detection technique falls behind because it can only detect known anomalies. When it comes to new and non-familiar ransomware traditional system unveils huge shortcomings. For detecting unknown patterns and sorts of new ransomware families,behavior-based anomaly detection approaches are likely to be the most efficient approach. In the wake of this alarming condition, this paper presents an ensemble classification model consisting of three widely used machine learning techniques that include Decision Tree (DT), RandomForest (RF), and K-nearest neighbor (KNN). To achieve the best outcome ensemble soft voting and hard voting techniques are used while classifying ransomware families based on attack attributes. Performance analysis is done by comparing our proposed ensemble models with standalone models on behavioral attributes based ransomware dataset..

The relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a popular diagnostic tool in forecast verification, with the area under the ROC curve (AUC) used as a verification metric measuring the discrimination ability of a forecast. Along with calibration, discrimination is deemed as a fundamental probabilistic forecast attribute. In particular, in ensemble forecast verification, AUC provides a basis for the comparison of potential predictive skill of competing forecasts. While this approach is straightforward when dealing with forecasts of common events (e.g. probability of precipitation), the AUC interpretation can turn out to be oversimplistic or misleading when focusing on rare events (e.g. precipitation exceeding some warning criterion). How should we interpret AUC of ensemble forecasts when focusing on rare events? How can changes in the way probability forecasts are derived from the ensemble forecast affect AUC results? How can we detect a genuine improvement in terms of predictive skill? Based on verification experiments, a critical eye is cast on the AUC interpretation to answer these questions. As well as the traditional trapezoidal approximation and the well-known bi-normal fitting model, we discuss a new approach which embraces the concept of imprecise probabilities and relies on the subdivision of the lowest ensemble probability category.

This study shows the application of self-organizing maps (SOMs) to probabilistic forecasts of wind power generation and ramps in Japan. SOMs are applied to atmospheric variables obtained from atmospheric reanalysis over the region, thus deriving classified weather patterns (WPs). Probabilistic relationships are established between the synoptic-scale atmospheric variables over East Japan and the generation of regionally integrated wind power in East Japan. Medium-range probabilistic wind power predictions are derived by SOM, as analog ensembles based on the WPs of the multi-center ensemble forecasts. As this analog approach handles stochastic uncertainties effectively, probabilistic wind power forecasts are rapidly generated from a very large number of forecast ensembles. The use of a multi-model ensemble provides better results than a one-forecast model. The hybrid ensemble forecasts further improve the probabilistic predictability skill of wind power generation, as compared with non-hybrid methods. It is expected that long-term wind forecasts will provide better guidance to transmission grid operators. The advantage of this method is that it can include an interpretative analysis of meteorological factors for variations in renewable energy.

Nowadays, according to spectacular improvement in health care and biomedical level, a tremendous amount of data is recorded by hospitals. In addition, the most effective approach to reduce disease mortality is to diagnose it as soon as possible. As a result, data mining by applying machine learning in the field of diseases provides good opportunities to examine the hidden patterns of this collection. An exact forecast of the mortality after heart surgery will cause Successful medical treatment and fewer costs. This research wants to recommend a new stacking predictive model after utilizing the random forest feature importance method to foresee the mortality after heart surgery on a highly unbalanced dataset by using the most practical features. To solve the unbalanced data problem, a combination of the SVM-SMOTE over-sampling algorithm and the Edited-Nearest-Neighbor under-sampling algorithm is used. This research compares the introduced model with some other machine learning classifiers to ensure efficiency through shuffle hold-out and 10-fold cross-validation strategies. In order to validate the performance of the implemented machine learning methods in this research, both shuffle hold-out, and 10-fold cross-validation results indicated that our model had the highest efficiency compared to the other models. Furthermore, the Friedman statistical test is applied to survey the differences between models. The result demonstrates that the introduced stacking model reached the most accurate predicting performance after Logistic Regression.

The eruption of COVID-19 patients in 215 countries worldwide has urged for robust predictive methods that can detect as early as possible the size and duration of the contagious disease and also providing precision predictions. In much recent literature reported on COVID-19, one or more essential parts of such investigation were missed. One of the crucial elements for any predictive method is that such methods should fit simultaneously as much data as possible; these data could be total infected cases, daily hospitalized cases, cumulative recovered cases, and deceased cases, and so on. Other crucial elements include sensitivity and precision of such predictive methods on the amount of data as the contagious disease evolved day by day. To show the importance of these aspects, we have evaluated the standard SIRD model and a newly introduced Gaussian-SIRD model on the development of COVID-19 in Kuwait. It is observed that the SIRD model quickly picks up the main trends of COVID-19 development, but the Gaussian-SIRD model provides precise prediction a longer period of time.

In Model-Driven Development (MDD), the models, their generation, and imposing changes on them (model transformation) are used for the development of software. Models provide a framework to start from the imagination and abstraction to create and accomplish the final system. Models create a slow and steady transition from whatness to howness, i.e. from the natural path of the generation of software. For supporting this path, the Logic and Functionality of software must be changeable during its evolution. Here we provide a brief introduction to the concept of Model Driven Development.

Assuming a Winterberg model for space where the vacuum consists of a very stiff two component superfluid made up of positive and negative mass planckions, theory is the hypothesis, that Planck charge, , was created at the same time as Planck mass. Moreover, the repulsive force that like-mass planckions experience is, in reality, due to the electrostatic force of repulsion between like charges. These forces also give rise to what appears to be a gravitational force of attraction between two like planckions, but this is an illusion. In reality, gravity is electrostatic in origin if our model is correct. We determine the spring constant associated with planckion masses, and find that, , where equals Apery's constant, , and, , is the relaxed, i.e., , number density of the positive and negative mass planckions. In the present epoch, we estimate that, equals, , and the relaxed distance of separation between nearest neighbor positive, or negative, planckion pairs is, These values were determined using box quantization for the positive and negative mass planckions, and considering transitions between energy states, much like as in the hydrogen atom. For the cosmos as a whole, given a net smeared macroscopic gravitational field of, , due to all the ordinary, and bound, matter contained within the observable universe, an average displacement from equilibrium for the planckion masses is a mere , within the vacuum made up of these particles. On the surface of the earth, where, , the displacement amounts to, . All of these displacements are due to increased gravitational pressure within the vacuum, which in turn are caused by applied gravitational fields. The gravitational potential is also derived and directly related to gravitational pressure.

Stemming from the urgency of the actual situation, commercial banks need an effective credit risk management tool to limit risks. The authors went to survey, study and propose a set of factors affecting the ability of debt repayment of individual customers and conducting surveys. The topic uses data sets including 240 observation samples. Using the SPSS software to clean data and run the model based on Maddala's Binary logistics regression published in 1984 to find out the impact of each individual element of customers affecting their ability to repay such debts. Come on. The authors also specify the order of influence of each factor determining the ability to repay individual customers, thereby helping bank managers have a better visual view to make decisions for borrowing accurately, limiting risks.

Current numerical methods for simulating biophysical processes in aquatic environments are typically constructed in a grid-based Eulerian framework or as an individual-based model in a particle-based Lagrangian framework. Often, the biogeochemical processes and physical (hydrodynamic) processes occur at different time and space scales, and changes in biological processes do not affect the hydrodynamic conditions. Therefore, it is possible to develop an alternative strategy to grid-based approaches for linking hydrodynamic and biogeochemical models that can significantly improve computational efficiency for this type of linked biophysical model. In this work, we utilize a new technique which links hydrodynamic effects and biological processes through a property-carrying particle model (PCPM) in a Lagrangian/Eulerian framework. The model is tested in idealized cases and its utility is demonstrated in a practical application to Sandusky Bay. Results show the integration of Lagrangian and Eulerian approaches allows for a natural coupling of mass transport (represented by particle movements and random walk) and biological processes in water columns which is described by a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD) biological model. This method is far more efficient than traditional tracer based Eulerian biophysical models for 3-D simulation, particularly for a large domain and/or ensemble simulations.

The predictability of wind information in a given location is essential for the evaluation of a wind power project. Predicting wind speed accurately improves the planning of wind power generation, reducing costs and improving the use of resources. This paper seeks to predict the mean hourly wind speed in anemometric towers (at a height of 50 meters) at two locations: a coastal region and one with complex terrain characteristics. To this end, the Holt-Winters (HW), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Hybrid time-series models were used. Observational data evaluated by the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications-Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis at the same height of the towers. The results show that the hybrid model had a better performance in relation to the others, including when compared to the evaluation with MERRA-2. For example, in terms of statistical residuals, RMSE and MAE were 0.91 and 0.62 m/s, respectively. As such, the hybrid models are a good method to forecast wind speed data for wind generation.

Configuration techniques have been used in several fields, such as the design of business process models. Sometimes these models depend on the data dependencies, being easier to describe "what" has to be done instead of "how". Configuration models enable to use a declarative representation of business processes, deciding the most appropriate work-flow in each case. Unfortunately, data dependencies among the activities and how they can affect the correct execution of the process, has been overlooked in the declarative specifications and configurable systems found in the literature. In order to find the best process configuration for optimizing the execution time of processes according to data dependencies, we propose the use of Constraint Programming paradigm with the aim of obtaining an adaptable imperative model in function of the data dependencies of the activities described declarative.

Expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is a powerful mathematical tool for estimating statistical parameter when data sample contains hidden part and observed part. EM is applied to learn finite mixture model in which the whole distribution of observed variable is average sum of partial distributions. Coverage ratio of every partial distribution is specified by the probability of hidden variable. An application of mixture model is soft clustering in which cluster is modeled by hidden variable whereas each data point can be assigned to more than one cluster and degree of such assignment is represented by the probability of hidden variable. However, such probability in traditional mixture model is simplified as a parameter, which can cause loss of valuable information. Therefore, in this research I propose a so-called conditional mixture model (CMM) in which the probability of hidden variable is modeled as a full probabilistic density function (PDF) that owns individual parameter. CMM aims to extend mixture model. I also propose an application of CMM which is called adaptive regressive model (ARM). Traditional regression model is effective when data sample is scattered equally. If data points are grouped into clusters, regression model tries to learn a unified regression function which goes through all data points. Obviously, such unified function is not effective to evaluate response variable based on grouped data points. The concept “adaptive” of ARM means that ARM solves the ineffectiveness problem by selecting the best cluster of data points firstly and then evaluating response variable within such best cluster. In order words, ARM reduces estimation space of regression model so as to gain high accuracy in calculation.

In MBSE there is yet no converged terminology. The term ’system model’ is used in different contexts in literature. In this study we elaborated the definitions and usages of the term ’system model’, to find a common definition. 104 publications have been analyzed in depth for their usage and definition as well as their meta-data e.g., the publication year and publication background to find some common patterns. While the term is gaining more interest in recent years it is used in a broad range of contexts for both analytical and synthetic use cases. Based on this three categories of system models have been defined and integrated into a more precise definition.

Objective: To use mathematical models to predict the epidemiological impact of lifting the lockdown in London, UK, and alternative strategies to help inform policy in the UK. Methods: A mathematical model for the transmission of SARS-CoV2 in London. The model was parametrised using data on notified cases, deaths, contacts, and mobility to analyse the epidemic in the UK capital. We investigated the impact of multiple non pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and combinations of these measures on future incidence of COVID-19. Results: Immediate action at the early stages of an epidemic in the affected districts would have tackled spread. While an extended lockdown is highly effective, other measures such as shielding older populations, universal testing and facemasks can all potentially contribute to a reduction of infections and deaths. However, based on current evidence it seems unlikely they will be as effective as continued lockdown. In order to achieve elimination and lift lockdown within 5 months, the best strategy seems to be a combination of weekly universal testing, contact tracing and use of facemasks, with concurrent lockdown. This approach could potentially reduce deaths by 48% compared with continued lockdown alone. Conclusions: A combination of NPIs such as universal testing, contact tracing and mask use while under lockdown would be associated with least deaths and infections. This approach would require high uptake and sustained local effort but it is potentially feasible as may lead to elimination in a relatively short time scale.

Sub-Saharan social-ecological systems are undergoing changes in environmental conditions, including modifications in rainfall pattern and biodiversity loss. Consequences of such changes depend on complex causal chains which call for integrated management strategies whose efficiency could benefit from ecosystem dynamic modelling. However, ecosystem models often require lots of quantitative information for estimating parameters, which is often unavailable. Alternatively, qualitative modelling frameworks have proved useful for explaining ecosystem response to perturbations, while requiring fewer information and providing more general predictions. However, current qualitative methods have some shortcomings which may limit their utility for specific issues. In this paper, we propose the Ecological Discrete-Event Network (EDEN), an innovative qualitative dynamic modelling framework based on "if-then" rules which generates many alternative event sequences (trajectories). Based on expert knowledge, observations and literature, we use this framework to assess the effect of permanent changes in surface water and herbivores diversity on vegetation and socio-economic transitions in an East African savanna. Results show that water availability drives changes in vegetation and socio-economic transitions, while herbivore functional groups had highly contrasted effects depending on the group. This first use of EDEN in a savanna context is promising for bridging expert knowledge and ecosystem modelling.

During the past two decades of e-commerce growth, the concept of a business model has become increasingly popular. More recently, the research on this realm has grown rapidly, with diverse research activity covering a wide range of application areas. Considering the sustainable development goals, the innovative business models have brought a competitive advantage to improve the sustainability performance of organizations. The concept of the sustainable business model describes the rationale of how an organization creates, delivers, and captures value, in economic, social, cultural, or other contexts, in a sustainable way. The process of sustainable business model construction forms an innovative part of a business strategy. Different industries and businesses have utilized sustainable business models’ concept to satisfy their economic, environmental, and social goals simultaneously. However, the success, popularity, and progress of sustainable business models in different application domains are not clear. To explore this issue, this research provides a comprehensive review of sustainable business models literature in various application areas. Notable sustainable business models are identified and further classified in fourteen unique categories, and in every category, the progress -either failure or success- has been reviewed, and the research gaps are discussed. Taxonomy of the applications includes innovation, management and marketing, entrepreneurship, energy, fashion, healthcare, agri-food, supply chain management, circular economy, developing countries, engineering, construction and real estate, mobility and transportation, and hospitality. The key contribution of this study is that it provides an insight into the state of the art of sustainable business models in various application areas and future research directions. This paper concludes that popularity and the success rate of sustainable business models in all application domains have been increased along with the increasing use of advanced technologies.

Nowadays, network simulators are very useful to model a communications system. In this technical note we will focus in the creation of a new error model in NS-3 network simulator. This note describes the main steps to create or modify an Wi-Fi error model in this network simulator. In our case, we have created a new error model to included the approach of [1] to compute PER (Packet Error Rate) for vehicular environments.

Aiming at the defects of low precision and time cumulative error, an external wireless signal weighted centroid localization algorithm aided inertial positioning method is designed in this paper. According to the signal strength of each anchor node received at the test point, the distance between the anchor node and the anchor node is obtained by using the attenuation model of the wireless signal. Three anchor nodes are used to measure the distance between the anchor node and the measured point. We can obtain the area to be measured according to the actual situation, the position of the measured point is obtained by the weighted centroid localization algorithm and a combined model of wireless signal aided inertial navigation system is established. The simulation results show that the method can greatly improve the positioning accuracy and restrain the divergence of the longitude error and latitude error.

A new two-dimensional nanomaterial – Titanium Carbide MXene (Ti₃C₂-MXene) – was reported in 2011. In this work, the microscale models of Ti₃C₂-MXene nanomaterial are considered with polymer matrix. The nanocomposites are modeled using nacre-mimetic brick-and-mortar assembly configurations due to enhanced mechanical properties and interlocking mechanism between the Ti₃C₂-MXene (brick) and polymer matrices (mortar). The polymer matrix material (Epoxy-resin) is modeled with elastic and viscoelastic behavior (Kelvin-Voigt Model). The Finite Element Method is used for numerical analysis of the microscale models with the multi-point constraint method to include Ti₃C₂-MXene fillers in the polymer matrix. Ti₃C₂-MXenes are considered as thick plate elements with transverse shear effects. The response of elastic and viscoelastic models of polymer matrix are studied. Finally, a tensile and compressive load is applied at the microscale and the effective load transfer due to nacre-mimetic configuration is discussed. This paper provides nacre-mimetic models to pre-design the nanocomposite for optimal performance with damage resistance and enhanced strength.

The comparison of group means in latent variable models plays a vital role in empirical research in the social sciences. The present article discusses extensions of invariance alignment and Haberman linking concerning the choice of linking functions for comparisons of many groups. Robust linking functions are proposed for invariance alignment and robust Haberman linking that are particularly suited to item response data under partial invariance. In a simulation study, it is shown that both linking approaches have comparable performance, and in some conditions, the newly proposed robust Haberman linking outperforms invariance alignment.

The worldwide interconnected objects, called Internet of Things (IoTs), have been increasingly growing in the last several years. Different social media platforms and devices are continuously generating data about individuals and facilitate the technological and the social convergence of their Internet-based data and services with globalized users. These social and device-related IoTs create rooms for data breaches as such platforms provide ability to collect private and sensitive data. We assert that data breaches are fundamentally failures of access control - most users are too busy or technically ill-equipped to understand access control policy expressions and decisions. We argue that this is symptomatic of globalised societies structured by the conditions of algorithmic modernity; an era in which our data is increasingly interdependent on, and enmeshed with, ever more complex systems and processes that are vulnerable to attack. Ethically managing data breaches is now too complex for current access control systems, such as Role-Based Access Control (RBAC) and Context-Aware Access Control (CAAC). These systems do not provide an explicit mechanism to engage in decision making processes, about who should have access to what data and when, that are involved in data breaches. We argue that a policy ontology will contribute towards the development of Ethical CAAC better suited to attributing accountability for data breaches in the context of algorithmic modernity. We interrogate our proposed Ethical CAAC as a theoretical construct with implications for future policy ontology models and data breach countermeasures. An experimental study on the performance of the proposed framework is carried out with respect to a more generic CAAC framework.

Background: Metabolic flux analysis (MFA) is an indispensable tool in metabolic engineering. The simplest variant of MFA relies on an overdetermined stoichiometric model of the cell’s metabolism under the pseudo-steady state assumption, to evaluate the intracellular flux distribution. Despite its long history, the issue of model error in the overdetermined MFA, particularly misspecifications of the stoichiometric matrix, has not received much attention. Method: We evaluated the performance of statistical tests from linear least square regressions, namely Ramsey RESET test, F-test and Lagrange multiplier test, in detecting model misspecifications in the overdetermined MFA, particularly missing reactions. We further proposed an iterative procedure using the F-test to correct such an issue. Result: Using Chinese hamster ovary and random metabolic networks, we demonstrated that: (1) a statistically significant regression does not guarantee high accuracy of the flux estimates, (2) the removal of a reaction with a low flux magnitude can cause disproportionately large biases in the flux estimates, (3) the F-test could efficiently detect missing reactions, and (4) the proposed iterative procedure could robustly resolve the omission of reactions. Conclusion: Our work demonstrated that statistical analysis and tests could be used to systematically assess, detect and resolve model misspecifications in the overdetermined MFA.

The perception in pair trading is to recognize two stocks that move together, and their prices will converge to a mean value in future. However, finding the mean-reverted point at which the value of the pair will converge, and optimal boundaries of the trade is not easy. As uncertainty and model misspecifications may lead to losses. To cater for the problems, this study employs the novel entropic approach that utilizes entropy as penalty function for the misspecification of the model. The use of entropy as a measure of risk in pair trading is a nascent idea and this study utilizes daily data for 64 companies listed on PSX for the years 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively to compute the returns based on the entropic approach. These companies cover the major sectors including Cement, Chemical, Automobile Assembler, Food and Personal Care Products, Oil and Gas Marketing Companies, Oil and Gas Exploration Companies Ltd, Power Generation and Distribution, Refinery and Pharmaceuticals. The returns to these stocks are then evaluated and compared with the Buy and Hold strategy. The results show positive and significant returns from pair trading using an entropic approach.

In this work, we study the dynamical behaviors of the electromagnetic fields and material responses in the hyperbolic metamaterial consisting of periodically arranged metallic and dielectric layers. The thickness of each unit cell is assumed to be much smaller than the wavelength of the electromagnetic waves, so the effective medium concept can be applied. When electromagnetic (EM) fields are present, the responses of the medium in the directions parallel to and perpendicular to the layers are like that of Drude and Lorentz media, respectively. We derive the energy density of the EM fields and the power loss in the effective medium based on Poynting theorem and the dynamical equations of the polarization field. We also show that the Lagrangian density of the system can be constructed. The Euler-Lagrangian equations yield the correct dynamical equations of the electromagnetic fields and the polarization field in the medium. The canonical momentum conjugates to every dynamical field can be derived from the Lagrangian density via differentiation or variation with respect to that field. We apply Legendre transformation to this system, and find that the resultant Hamitonian density is identical to the energy density, up to an irrelevant divergence term.

The quantified residence time distribution (RTD) provides a numerical characterization of mixing in the continue casting tundish, thus allowing the engineer to better understand the metallurgical performance of the reactor. This paper describes a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) modelling study for analyzing the flow pattern and the residence time distribution in a five-strand tundish. Two passive scalar transport equations are applied to separately calculate the E-curve and F-curve in the tundish. The numerical modelling results are compared to the water modelling results for the validation of the mathematical model. The volume fraction of different flow regions (plug, mixed and dead) and the intermixing time during the ladle changeover are calculated to study the effects of the flow control device (FCD) on the tundish performance. The result shows that a combination of the U-baffle with deflector holes and the turbulence inhibitor has three major effects on the flow characteristics in the tundish: i) reduce the extent of the dead volume; ii) evenly distribute the liquid streams to each strand and iii) shorten the intermixing time during the ladle changeover operation.

In this paper we will present a simplified approach for extracting the ground level – a digital terrain model (DTM) – from the surface provided in a digital surface model (DSM). Most existing algorithms try to find the ground values in a digital surface model. Our approach works the opposite direction by detecting probable above ground areas. The main advantage of our approach is the possibility to use it with incomplete DSMs containing much no data values which can be e.g. occlusions in the calculated DSM. A smoothing or filling of such original derived DSMs will destroy much information which is very useful for deriving a ground surface from the DSM. Since the presented approach needs steep edges to detect potential high objects it will fail on smoothed and filled DSMs. After presenting the algorithm it will be applied to a test area in Salzburg and compared to a terrain model freely available from the Austrian government.

The primary attraction of IaaS is providing elastic resources on demand. It becomes imperative that IaaS-users have an effective methodology for learning what resources they require, how many resources and for how long they need. However, the heterogeneity of resources, the diversity resource demands of different cloud applications and the variation of application-user behaviors pose IaaS-users big challenge. In this paper, we purpose a unified resource demand forecasting model suiting for different applications, various resources and diverse time-varying workload patterns. With the model, taking input from parameterized applications, resources and workload scenarios, the corresponding resources demands during any time interval can be deduced as output. The experiments configure concrete functions and parameters to help understanding the above model.

In this paper we provide an ``expository overview" of classic epidemic projection models. Starting with the simple case of an epidemic that grows exponentially we then investigate ``compartmental" models. These assume that the growth of an infected population is limited endogenously by the size of the underlying pool of susceptibles. We then describe a new family of so-called "Exo-r" statistical models, which hinge on an exogenously driven growth rate of the infected population. This family, which can be used to model both infections and deaths, captures parsimoniously both the depletion of susceptibles and the effect of interventions such as lockdowns and ``social distancing". The model is used to fit numbers of Covid-19 infections in China. It is also used to model and project deaths in the United States. Results are used to inform a discussion on i) the challenges at hand and ii) the extent to which epidemic projection models may be useful despite being wrong.

One of the most broadly used models for membrane fouling is the Hermia model, which separates this phenomenon into four blocking mechanisms, each with an associated parameter n. These mechanisms are complete blocking (n=2), intermediate blocking (n=1), standard blocking (n=3/2), and cake formation (n=3/2). The original model, which was obtained through experimental data, is given by an Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) dependent on n. At the time, this ODE was only solved for these four values of n, which limits the effectiveness of the model when adjusted to experimental data. This paper aims to not only mathematically prove the original Hermia model but also to broaden the scope of this model for any real number n by using the original ODE, the equations of fluid mechanics, and the properties of single and multivariable calculus. The extended Hermia model (EHM) is given by a power law for any n≠2 and is given by an exponential function at n=2. To better test the model, we have performed the model fitting of the EHM and compared its performance to the original four pore-blocking mechanisms in 6 micro- and ultrafiltration examples. In all examples, the EHM performed consistently better than the four original pore-blocking mechanisms. Changes in the blocking mechanisms concerning transmembrane pressure (TMP), crossflow rate (CFR), crossflow velocity (CFV), membrane composition, and pretreatments are also discussed.

This study aimed to determine the feasibility of the development of an over-the-counter (OTC) screening model using machine learning for breast cancer screening in the Asian women population. Data were retrospectively collected from women who came to the Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia, Malaysia. Five screening models were developed based on machine learning methods; random forest, artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), elastic-net logistic regression and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). Features used for the development of the screening models were limited to information from the patients’ registration form. The model performance was assessed across the dense and non-dense groups. SVM had the best sensitivity while elastic-net logistic regression had the best specificity. In terms of precision, both random forest elastic-net logistic regression had the best performance, while, in terms of PR-AUC, XGBoost had the best performance. Additionally, SVM had a more balanced performance in terms of sensitivity and specificity across the mammographic density groups. The three most important features were age at examination, weight and number of children. In conclusion, OTC models developed from machine learning methods can improve the prognostic process of breast cancer in Asian women.

A micromechanical model is implemented to indicate the progressive fatigue problem of a laminated composite with a central circular hole under fatigue loading based on a finite element model. The mechanical properties of the composite lamina are represented based on the characteristics of the fiber and the matrix through a micromechanics model. An appropriate algorithm is then adopted to simulate fatigue damage development in the composite lamina. According to this algorithm, the stress field of the composite subjected to fatigue load is initially obtained using the finite element method. Finally, the predicted results of the stresses in the constituents i.e. fiber and matrix are determined according to the micromechanical bridging model. Finally applying proper damage driving relations leads to damage degree in each element. The proposed model is proven to be successful in the observation of the fatigue behavior with stiffness degradation in each element of the composite in each cycle. Results are reported and validated using those micromechanical models and experimental data available in the literature.

Background: Outbreak of the Covid-19 is now an ongoing global health emergency. At the end of December 2019, the first infection was reported in Wuhan and the world did not pay attention to this extremely contaminated disease and plucked to react rapidly. The World is in an vulnerable state in disease spreading, facing a great loss of lives and socio-economic aspects also. That is why we have proposed a potential mathematical model with data analysis to predict and control the outcome of this pandemic. Methods: The model presented the epidemic dynamics of multiple compartments. We collected available online data of Spain. In primary step, we estimated the parameters using either the data analysis or reference papers. Then we did the data fitting analysis in comparison with the outcome of our mathematical results. The results of the system depended not only the parameters also on social consciousness. Results: It is found that disease progression in this model is determined by the basic reproductive ratio, $R_0$, the actual epidemic of $R_0$ and effective $R(t)$ of each day. If $R_0>1$, the number of latently infected individuals grows exponentially; endemic solution is stable while infection rate decays if $R_0<1$. The optimal control theory stated that vaccination and treatment strategies are highly effective for reducing both susceptible and infected population and to increase the recover rate high. In Spain, after state of alarm (quarantine) on 14 March 2020, reported cases increasing for 13 days only and from the 14th day, daily reported cases started to decline albeit with small fluctuation. Our proposed model approximates that the disease in Spain could be fully under control by after July 2020. Conclusion: Outbreak will be in control of health care system, reduce the death rate and will ensure social-economic stability.

In this paper, the seven traditional models of PV modules are reviewed comprehensively to find out the appropriate model to be reliable. All the models are validated using the Matlab code and make a graphical comparison. The accuracy and convergence of each model are evaluated using data of manufactured PV panels. Then, a novel model is proposed showing its consistent performance. The most three key parameters of single-diode model are self revised to adapt to various type of PV modules. This new method is verified in three types of PV panels' data measured by National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), US. The validated data show promising results when the error RMSEs' range of the proposed model is under 0.36.

Model selection and model averaging have been the popular approaches in handling modelling uncertainties. Fan and Li(2006) laid out a unified frame work for variable selection via penalized likelihood. The tuning parameter selection is vital in the optimization problem for the penalized estimators in achieving consistent selection and optimal estimation. Since the OLSpost-LASSO estimator by Belloni and Chernozhukov (2013), few studies have focused on the finite sample performances of the class of OLS post-penalty estimators with the tuning parameter choice determined by different tuning parameter selection approaches. We aim to supplement the existing model selection literature by studying such a class of OLS post-selection estimators. Inspired by the Shrinkage Averaging Estimator (SAE) by Schomaker(2012) and the Mallows Model Averaging (MMA) criterion by Hansen (2007), we further propose a Shrinkage Mallows Model Averaging (SMMA) estimator for averaging high dimensional sparse models. Based on the Monte Carlo design by Wang et al. (2009) which features an expanding sparse parameter space as the sample size increases, our Monte Carlo design further considers the effect of the effective sample size and the degree of model sparsity on the finite sample performances of model selection and model averaging estimators. From our data examples, we find that the OLS post-SCAD(BIC) estimator in finite sample outperforms most of the current penalized least squares estimators as long as the number of parameters does not exceed the sample size. In addition, the SMMA performs better given sparser models. This supports the use of the SMMA estimator when averaging high dimensional sparse models.

Changes in agricultural yields due to climate change will affect land use, agricultural production volume, and food prices as well as macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP which is important as it enables one to compare the climate change impacts across multiple sectors. This study considered five key uncertainty factors and estimated macroeconomic impacts due to crop yield changes using a novel integrated assessment framework. The five factors are 1) land-use change (or yield aggregation method based on spatially-explicit information), 2) the amplitude of the CO2 fertilization effect, 3) the use of different climate models, 4) socioeconomic assumptions and 5) the level of mitigation stringency. We found that their global impacts on the macroeconomic indicator value were 0.02 - 0.06% of GDP in 2100. However, the impacts on the agricultural sector varied greatly by socioeconomic assumption. The relative contributions of these factors to the total uncertainty in the projected macroeconomic indicator value were greater in a pessimistic world scenario characterized by a large population increase and low income (0.6%) than in an optimistic scenario (0.00%).

The aim of this study has been to develop a novel two-level multi-objective genetic algorithm (GA) to optimize time series forecasting data for fans used in road tunnels by the Swedish Transport Administration (Trafikverket). Level 1 is for the process of forecasting time series cost data, while level 2 evaluates the forecasting. Level 1 implements either a multi-objective GA based on the ARIMA model or a multi-objective GA based on the dynamic regression model. Level 2 utilises a multi-objective GA based on different forecasting error rates to identify a proper forecasting. Our method is compared with using the ARIMA model only. The results show the drawbacks of time series forecasting using only the ARIMA model. In addition, the results of the two-level model show the drawbacks of forecasting using a multi-objective GA based on the dynamic regression model. A multi-objective GA based on the ARIMA model produces better forecasting results. In level 2, five forecasting accuracy functions help in selecting the best forecasting. Selecting a proper methodology for forecasting is based on the averages of the forecasted data, the historical data, the actual data and the polynomial trends. The forecasted data can be used for life cycle cost (LCC) analysis.

Bladder cancer is one of the most common malignant diseases in the urinary system and a highly aggressive neoplasm. The prognosis is not favourable usually and its evolution for particular patients is very difficult to find out. In this paper we propose a dynamic mathematical model that describes the bladder tumor growth and the immune response evolution. This model is customized for a single patient, determining appropriate model parameter values via model calibration. Due to the uncertainty of the tumor evolution, using the calibrated model parameters, we predict the tumor size and the immune response evolution over the next few months assuming three different scenarios: favourable, neutral and unfavourable. In the former, the cancer disappears; in the second a 5mm tumor is expected around the middle of August 2018; in the worst scenario, a 5mm tumor is expected around the end of May 2018. The patient has been cited around June 15th, 2018, to check the tumor size, if it exists.

Multiobjective optimization plays an increasingly important role in modern applications, where several criteria are often of equal importance. The task in multiobjective optimization and multiobjective optimal control is therefore to compute the set of optimal compromises (the Pareto set) between the conflicting objectives. The advances in algorithms and the increasing interest in Pareto optimal solutions have led to a wide range of new applications related to optimal and feedback control which results in new challenges such as expensive models or real-time applicability. Since the Pareto set generally consists of an infinite number of solutions, the computational effort can quickly become challenging which is particularly problematic when the objectives are costly to evaluate or when a solution has to be presented very quickly. This article gives an overview over recent developments in accelerating multiobjective optimal control for complex problems where either PDE constraints are present or where a feedback behavior has to be achieved. In the first case, surrogate models yield significant speed-ups. Besides classical meta-modeling techniques for multiobjective optimization, a promising alternative for control problems is to introduce a surrogate model for the system dynamics. In the case of real-time requirements, various promising model predictive control approaches have been proposed, using either fast online solvers or offline-online decomposition. We also briefly comment on dimension reduction in many-objective optimization problems as another technique for reducing the numerical effort.

Dyadic data contains co-occurrences of objects, which is often modeled by finite mixture model which in turn is learned by expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. Objects in traditional dyadic data are identified by names, causing the drawback which is that it is impossible to extract implicit valuable knowledge under objects. In this research, I propose the so-called attributed dyadic data (ADD) in which each object has an informative attribute and each co-occurrence of two objects is associated with a value. ADD is flexible and covers most of structures / forms of dyadic data. Conditional mixture model (CMM), which is a variant of finite mixture model, is applied into learning ADD. Moreover, a significant feature of CMM is that any co-occurrence of two objects is based on some conditional variable. As a result, CMM can predict or estimate co-occurrent values based on regression model, which extends applications of ADD and CMM.

The total enthalpies of the 16 different spin configurations that can be realized in the unit cell of the archetype spin crossover complex [Fe(phen)₂(NCS)₂] (phen=1,2-phenanthroline) were calculated applying periodic density functional theory combined with the Hubbard model and the Grimme-D2 dispersion correction (DFT+U/D2). The obtained enthalpy differences between the individual spin configurations were used to determine spin couplings of an Ising-like model and subsequent Monte Carlo simulations for this model allowed to estimate the phenomenological interaction parameter Г of the Slichter-Drickamer model, which is commonly used to describe the cooperativity of the spin transition. The calculational procedure described here, which led to an estimate of about 3 kJ/mol⁻¹ for Г, in good agreement with experiment, may be used to predict from first principles how modifications of spin crossover complexes can change the character of the spin transition from gradual to abrupt and vice versa.

Pancreatic cancer represents one of the difficult problems of contemporary medicine. The development illness evolves very slowly, takes place in special sake (stroma) and manifests clinically close to a final stage. Another feature of this pathology is a coexistence (symbiotic) effect between cancer cells and normal cells inside stroma. All these aspects make it difficult to understand the pathogenesis of pancreatic cancer and develop a proper therapy. The emergence of pancreatic pre-cancer and cancer cells represents a branching stochastic process engaging populations of 64 cells differing in the number of acquired mutations. In this study we formulate and calibrate the mathematical model of pancreatic cancer using the quasispecies framework. The mathematical model incorporates the mutation matrix, fineness landscape matrix and the death rates. Each element of the mutation matrix presents the probability of appearing a specific mutation in the branching sequence of cells representing the accumulation of mutations. The model incorporates the cancer cell elimination by effect CD8 T cells (CTL). The down-regulation of the effector function of CTLs and exhaustion are parameterized. The symbiotic effect of coexistence of normal and cancer cells is considered. The computational predictions obtained with the model are consistent with empirical data. The modelling approach can be used to investigate other types of cancers and examine various treatment procedures.

The use of cobalt-iron (VaCoFe) core is investigated as an alternative to silicon-iron (FeSi) on the design of interior permanent magnet synchronous motors (IPMSM). A spoke-type IPMSM geometry is optimized considering FeSi and VaCoFe cores for a torque range up to 40 N.m, providing a general comparative analysis between materials, considering the application of a 4-motor competition vehicle’s powertrain. A genetic optimization algorithm is applied over a hybrid analytical/finite-element model of the motor to provide sufficiently accurate electromagnetic and thermal results within a feasible time. VaCoFe can result in an estimated increase of up to 5 % in efficiency for the same torque, or up to 64 % torque increase for the same efficiency level. After optimization, and using a detailed time-dependent model, a potential 3.2 % increase in efficiency, a core weight reduction of 4.1 %, and a decrease of 9.6 % in the motor’s core volume was found for the VaCoFe at 20 Nm. In addition, for the same motor volume, the VaCoFe allows an increase of 51.9 % of torque with an increase of 1.1 % of efficiency, when compared with FeSi.

The cellular model we teach and have theorized assumes that the cell is the basic unit of multicellular living beings. This fundamental element has been the subject of many theories concerning its properties and the exchanges that exist with its environment. In this article, we demonstrate that certain functional aspects, in particular the electrical aspects related to diffusion, have not been correctly assumed or that certain initial conditions have been purely ignored and are in contradiction with physics, chemistry and thermodynamics.

Trachsummaroma is an eye infectious disease caused by Chlamydia Trachomatis bacterium, which may lead to irreversible blindness. The disease is spread directly or indirectly by contacting a contaminated material. It can also be transmitted through the disease vector known as “Musca sorbens” or “Bazaar fly”. To curtail the spread of the disease in a population, a meaningful information on the spread and possible control of the disease is required. Mathematical modeling provides efficient tools that can be used to understand and analyze the dynamics of the disease and its control. Several compartmental epidemic models have been proposed in the literature to study the dynamics of trachoma; including SI, SIR and SEIR. However, majority of the existing trachoma models consider only person to person transmission. Thus, the information provided by such models is insufficient since they did not capture the disease vector transmission. The current study proposed a novel SEIR-SEI model that consider both person-person and vector transmission dynamics. The threshold quantity, basic reproduction number R0 is obtained using the next generation matrix, and it was proved that the disease-free equilibrium is asymptotically stable when R0 < 1, and the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R0 > 1. Some simulation results with the aid of mesh plots for the reproductive number as a function of two different biological parameters were obtained. Furthermore, a comprehensive sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the influence of the individual parameters on the R0. Numerical results show that the vector contact rate has the highest sensitivity with respect to R0, and the value of R0 increases with increase in, hence, the disease can be controlled by decreasing the vector contact rate. Similarly, improving the rate of environmental hygiene and facial cleanliness will decrease the size of R0 and result in the declination of the disease transmission. Moreover, a detailed parameter estimation of the model parameters and model fitting was presented with the use of field data cases from Northern Nigeria using least-square fitting method. The study provides alternative tools that can be used for planning trachoma control program to achieve global eradication of trachoma as a public heath challenge as targeted by WHO in 2030.

Mistrust between scientists and non-scientist stakeholders is a key challenge in fishery management. This problem is exacerbated with the use of complex models to support management: these models suffer from difficulties in communicating their results and a lack of confidence from end users. The European eel is an illustrative example; its complex life cycle raises problems of coordination and discussion among the multiple actors involved in the management of the species. The GEREM model has been proposed as a tool for estimating recruitment, but its complexity, which is essential for addressing the characteristics of the species, makes it difficult to understand and accept by all stakeholders. In the context of the SUDOANG project, we proposed a co-parametrization of this assessment model to tackle this mistrust. Through the use of various questionnaires and appropriate statistical analyses, stakeholders were involved in two important choices for the model (zone definition and prior construction). Regular workshops and presentations were organised to explain the model rationales and to gather feedback and expectations. The results show that stakeholders have very similar perceptions of the potential definitions of sub-areas of recruitment in south-western Europe, and these perceptions are consistent with the underlying environmental conditions. On the other hand, the stakeholders have contrasting opinions about the exploitation rates of fisheries in different river basins, and the use of their knowledge currently has little effect on GEREM estimates. More importantly, the overall approach of this study is thought to have reconstructed the trust and confidence among participants.

The Rasch model is one of the most prominent item response models. In this article, different item parameter estimation methods for the Rasch model are compared through a simulation study. The type of ability distribution, the number of items, and sample sizes were varied. It is shown that variants of joint maximum likelihood estimation and conditional likelihood estimation are competitive to marginal maximum likelihood estimation. However, efficiency losses of limited-information estimation methods are only modest. It can be concluded that in empirical studies using the Rasch model, the impact of the choice of an estimation method with respect to item parameters is almost negligible for most estimation methods. Interestingly, this sheds a somewhat more positive light on old-fashioned joint maximum likelihood and limited information estimation methods.

Karst wetlands are being seriously damaged, and protecting it has become an important matter. Karst vegetation is the essential component of wetland and plays an important role in in the ecological functions of wetland ecosystems. Classifying karst vegetation is important for karst wetlands protection and management. This paper addressed to classify karst vegetation in Huixian National Wetland Park, located in China using the improved SegNet Deep-Learning Algorithm and UAV images. This study proposed a method to fuse single-class SegNet models using the maximum probability algorithm for karst vegetation classification, and compared with object-based RF classification and multi-class SegNet classification, respectively. This paper evaluated the performance of multi-class SegNet model and fusion of single-class SegNet model with different EPOCH values for mapping karst vegetation. A new optimized post-classification algorithm was proposed to eliminate the stitching traces caused by SegNet model prediction. The specific conclusions of this paper include the followings:(1) fusion of four single-class SegNet models produced better classification for karst wetland vegetation than multi-class SegNet model, and achieved the highest overall classification accuracy (87.34%); (2) The optimized post-classification algorithm was able to improve prediction accuracy of SegNet model, and it could eliminate splicing traces; (3) The karst wetland vegetation classifications produced by single-class SegNet model outperformed multi-class SegNet model, and improved classification accuracy(F1-Score) between 10%~25%;(4)The EPCOH values and textural feature important impact on karst wetland vegetation classifications. The SegNet model with EPCOH 15 achieved greater classification accuracy(F1-Score) than the model with EPOCH 5 or 10. The textural feature improved improves the capability of the SegNet model for mapping karst vegetation;(5) Fusion of single-class SegNet models and object-based RF model could provide high classifications results for karst wetland vegetation, and both achieved greater 87% overall accuracy.

Essential oils (EO) are a great antimicrobial resource against bacterial resistance in public health. Math models are useful describing the growth, survival, and inactivation of microorganisms against antimicrobials. We evaluated the antimicrobial activity of M. armillaris EO obtained from plants placed in the province of Buenos Aires (Argentina) against Staphylococcus aureus. Minimum Inhibitory and Bactericidal Concentrations were close and decreased slightly acidifying the medium from pH 7.4 to 6.5 and 5.0. This result was also evidenced by applying a sigmoid model, where the time and EO concentration necessaries to achieve 50% of the maximum effect decreased when medium was acidified. Moreover, at pH 7.4, applying the Gompertz model, we found that subinhibitory concentrations of EO decreased the growth rate and the maximum population density, and increased the latency period respect to the control. Additionally, we established physicochemical parameters for quality control and standardization of M. armillaris EO. Mathematical modelling allowed us to estimate key parameters in the behavior of S. aureus and Melaleuca armillaris EO at different pHs. This is interesting in situations where the pH changes are relevant, such as the control of intracellular infections in public health or the development of preservatives for food industry.

The COVID-19 epidemic is an emerging infectious disease of the viral zoonosis type caused by the corona-virus strain SARS-CoV-2, is classified as a human-to-human communicable disease and is currently a pandemic worldwide. In this paper, we propose conceptual mathematical models the epidemic dynamics of four compartments. We have collected data from the Djibouti health ministry. We define the positivity, boundedness of solutions and basic reproduction number. Then, we study local and global stability and bifurcation analysis of equilibrium to examine its epidemiological relevance. Finally, we analyze the fit of the data in comparison with the result of our mathematical results, to validate the model and estimating the important model parameters and prediction about the disease, we consider the real cases of Djibouti from 23th March to 10th June, 2020.

p-Hydroxyphenylpyruvate dioxygenase (HPPD) is not only the useful molecular target in treating life-threatening tyrosinemia type I, but also an important target for chemical herbicides. A combined in silico structure-based pharmacophore and molecular docking based virtual screening were performed to identify novel potential HPPD inhibitors. The complex based pharmacophore model (CBP) with 0.721 of ROC used for screening compound showed remarkable ability to retrieve known active ligands from decoy molecule. The ChemDiv database was screened using CBP-Hypo2 as a 3D query, and the best-fit hits subjected to molecular docking with two methods of LibDock and CDOCKER in Accelrys Discovery Studio 2.5(DS 2.5) to discern interactions with key residues at the active site of HPPD. 4 Compounds with top rank in HipHop model and well-known binding model were finally chosen as identification of lead compounds with potentially inhibitory effects on active site of target. The results provided powerful insight to the development of novel HPPD inhibitors herbicides using computational techniques.

Large lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) in electric vehicles and energy storage systems demonstrate different performance and lifetime compared to small LIB cells, owing to the size effects generated by the electrical configuration and property imbalance. However, the calculation time for performing life predictions with three-dimensional (3D) cell models is undesirably long. In this paper, a lumped cell model with equivalent resistances (LER cell model) is proposed as a reduced order model of the 3D cell model, which enables accurate and fast life predictions of large LIBs. The developed LER cell model is validated via the comparisons with results of the 3D cell models by simulating a 20-Ah commercial pouch cell (NCM/graphite) and the experimental values. In addition, the LER cell models are applied to different cell types and sizes, such as a 20-Ah cylindrical cell and a 60-Ah pouch cell.

Simple Learning Motivations Hierarchy Model (SLMHM) is a theory that attempts to structure the path of learning “growth” with 16 levels where each next level corresponds to higher aims, motives, results, and satisfaction of needs. The SLMHM has been developed to simplify design, control, and evaluate the learning processes. The SLMHM was first presented at IES-2020 Conference (Gakh, 2020). More detailed research including analysis of internal structure shows that the model should be corrected. The “Plan-Do-Check-Act” cycle (PDCA Cycle) is popular in management. This paper describes the SLMHM improvements based on analyses of its similarities with the PDCA Cycle. The description of this research makes SLMHM more comprehend.

There is a perception among the inhabitants of the Aburrá Valley Region, that this heavily populated region, situated in the Andean mountains of Colombia, has been suffering large temperature elevations in the last years, especially in the last decade. To give perspective about this issue, the authors have gone through the available information about temperature changes in three meteorological stations in the region and have correlated it with a set of variables of urban, climatic and energetic nature, with the intention of developing an approximate model to understand the temperature changes. Changes in the mean temperature, based on the linear correlation of the data were estimated on 0.47oC for the 20 years between 1995 and 2015; the study showed that 60% of change was found to be related to local human activities and 40% was attributed to the impact of global warming. For the local influences some practical mitigation actions are proposed, related to improve the energy management and paying more attention to the temperature changes trough improvements in the number and capability of sampling stations in the urban air and in the river, which serve as clear indicators of the changes and the effect of any mitigation measures.

There is a perception among the inhabitants of the Aburrá Valley Region, that this heavily populated region, situated in the Andean mountains of Colombia, has been suffering large temperature raises in the last years, especially in the last decade. To give perspective about this issue, the authors have gone through the available information about temperature changes in three meteorological stations in the region and have correlated it with a set of variables of urban, climatic and energetic nature, with the intention of developing an approximate model to understand the temperature changes. Changes in the mean temperature, based on the linear tendencies, were estimated on 0.47ºC for the 20 years between 1995 and 2015; 60% of change was found to be related to local human activities and 40% was attributed to the impact of global warming.

Guessing effects frequently occur in testing data in educational or psychological applications. Different item response models have been proposed to handle guessing effects in dichotomous test items. However, it has been pointed out in the literature that the oftenemployed three-parameter logistic model poses implausible assumptions regarding the guessing process. The four-parameter guessing model has been proposed as an alternative to circumvent these conceptual issues. In this article, the four-parameter guessing model is compared with alternative item response models for handling guessing effects through a simulation study and an empirical example. It turned out that model selection for item response models should be rather based on the AIC than the BIC. However, the RMSD item fit statistic used with typical cutoff values was found to be ineffective in detecting misspecified item response models. Furthermore, sufficiently large sample sizes are required for sufficiently precise item parameter estimation. Moreover, it is argued that the criterion of statistical model fit should not be the sole criterion of model choice. The item response model used in operational practice should be valid with respect to the meaning of the ability variable and the underlying model assumptions. In this sense, the four-parameter guessing model could be the model of choice in educational large-scale assessment studies.

The article takes the case of the adoption of machine learning in a steel manufacturing process through a platform provided by a novel Canadian startup, Canvass Analytics. This way the steel company could optimize the process in a blast furnace. The content of the paper includes a conceptual framework on key factors around steel manufacturing and machine learning. Method: The article takes the case of the adoption of machine learning in a steel manufacturing process through a platform provided by a novel Canadian startup, Canvass Analytics. This way the steel company could optimize the process in a blast furnace. The content of the paper includes a conceptual framework on key factors around steel manufacturing and machine learning. Results: This case is relevant for the authors by the way the business model proposed by the startup attempts to democratize Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in industrial environments. This way the startup delivers value to facilitate traditional industries to obtain better operational results, and contribute to a better use of resources. Conclusion: This work is focused on opportunities that arise around Artificial Intelligence as a driver for new business and operating models. Besides the paper looks into the framework of the adoption of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in a traditional industrial environment towards a smart manufacturing approach.

Soft-matter systems when driven out-of-equilibrium often give rise to structures that usually lie in-between the macroscopic scale of the material and microscopic scale of its constituents. In this paper we review three such systems, the two-dimensional square-lattice Ising model, the Kuramoto model and the Rayeligh-Bénard convection system which when driven out-of-equilibrium give rise to emergent spatio-temporal order through self-organization. A common feature of these systems is that the entities that self-assemble are coupled to one another in some way, either through local interactions or through a continuous media. Therefore, the general nature of non-equilibrium fluctuations of the intrinsic variables in these systems are found to follow similar trends as order emerges. Through this paper, we attempt to look for connections between among these systems and systems in general which give rise to emergent order when driven out-of-equilibrium.

Green ICT has received significant attention in organizations to reduce global warming since last decade. Several maturity models have been proposed for tracking green ICT practices in organizations. Current literature shows that SMEs around the world try to follow some common strategies such as virtualization, consolidation of devices, energy efficiency and disposal of ICT equipment for greening ICT. The increasing interest for green ICT practices in organizations is not only due to the desire to attain environment-friendly atmosphere but mainly because of sustaining business goals such as cost reduction, competitive advantages and stakeholders’ pressure. Nevertheless, due to the lack of green ICT knowledge, organizations, specially SMEs, tend to ignore those practices. Therefore, this research proposes a framework that provides combination of existing green and sustainable ICT maturity models by mapping them with the strategies the businesses are already following. Out of this framework, a web application has been developed that provides questionnaire for SMEs to identify their present situation of green ICT practices and guidelines for improvement. The results have been analyzed by testing the application in some SMEs of Finland and Bangladesh. Finally, a survey has been conducted to attain SMEs’ perception about the possibility of sustainable development of businesses through this application.

Background: According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 116 pedestrians were killed in motor vehicle crashes in Ohio in 2015. However, no study to date has analyzed crashes in Ohio exploring the factors contributing to the pedestrian injury severity resulting from motor vehicle crashes. This study fills this gap by investigating the crashes involving pedestrians exclusively in Ohio. Materials and Methods: This study uses the crash data from the Highway Safety Information System, from 2009 to 2013. The explanatory factors include the pedestrian, driver, vehicle, crash, and roadway characteristics. Both fixed- and random-parameters ordered probit models of injury severity (where possible outcomes are major, minor, and possible/no injury) were estimated. Results: The model results indicate that being older pedestrian (65 and over), younger driver (less than 24), driving under influence (DUI), being struck by truck, dark-unlighted roadways, six-lane roadways, and speed limit of 40 mph and 50 mph were associated with more severe injuries to the pedestrians. Conversely, older driver (65 and over), passenger car, crash occurring in urban locations, daytime traffic off-peak (10 AM to 3:59 PM), weekdays, and daylight condition were associated with less severe injuries. Conclusion: This study provides specific safety recommendations so that effective countermeasures could be developed and implemented by the policy makers, which in turn will improve overall highway safety.

By reinterpreting the calibration of structural models, a reassessment of the importance of the input variables is undertaken. The analysis shows that volatility is the key parameter to any calibration exercise by several orders of magnitude. In order to maximize the sensitivity to volatility, a simple formulation of Merton’s model is proposed that employs deep out-of-the-money option implied volatilities. The methodology also eliminates the use of historic data to specify the default barrier thereby leading to a full risk neutral calibration. Subsequently, a new technique for identifying and hedging capital structure arbitrage opportunities is illustrated. The approach seeks to hedge the volatility risk, or vega, as opposed to the exposure from the underlying equity itself, or delta. The results question the efficacy of the common arbitrage strategy of only executing the delta hedge.

Background: This study aimed to identify the association between occupational stress and depression-well-being by proposing a comprehensive and flexible job burden-capital model with its corresponding hypotheses. Methods: For this research, 1618 valid samples were gathered from the electronic manufacturing service industry in Hunan Province, China; self-rated questionnaires were administered to participants for data collection after obtaining their written consent. The proposed model was fitted and tested through structural equation model analysis. Results: Single-factor correlation analysis results indicated that coefficients between all items and dimensions had statistical significance. The final model demonstrated satisfactory global goodness of fit (CMIN/DF=5.37, AGFI=0.915, NNFI=0.945, IFI=0.952, RMSEA=0.052). Both the measurement and structural models showed acceptable path loadings. Job burden and capital were directly associated with depression and well-being or indirectly related to them through personality. Multi-group structural equation model analyses indicated general applicability of the proposed model to basic features of such a population. Gender, marriage and education led to differences in the relation between occupational stress and health outcomes. Conclusions: The job burden-capital model of occupational stress-depression and well-being was found to be more systematic and comprehensive than previous models.

Preeclampsia is a multifactorial cardiovascular disorder diagnosed after 20 weeks of gestation that is the leading cause of death for both mothers and babies in pregnancy. The pathophysiology remains poorly understood due to variability and unpredictability of disease manifestation when studied in animal models. After preeclampsia, both mothers and offspring have a higher risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) including myocardial infarction or heart attack and heart failure (HF). Myocardial infarction is an acute myocardial damage that can be treated through reperfusion, however, that therapeutic approach leads to ischemic/reperfusion injury (IRI) often leading to HF. In this review, we compared the current in vivo, in vitro and ex vivo model systems used to study preeclampsia, IRI and HF. Future studies aiming at evaluating CVD in preeclampsia patients could benefit from novel models that better mimic the complex scenario described in this article.

Analysis of Fatigue Strain, Fatigue Modulus and Fatigue Damage for the modeling of concrete plays a vital role in the evolution material behaviour which is heterogeneous and anisotropic in nature. In this paper, the Level-S nonlinear fatigue strain curve, fatigue modulus curve, residual strain curve of concrete in compression, tension, flexure and torsional fatigue loading were proposed using strain life approach. The parameters such as physical meaning, the ranges, and the impact on the shape of the curve were discussed. Then, the evolution model of fatigue modulus was established based on the fatigue strain evolution model, fatigue modulus evaluation model, residual strain evaluation model, secondary strain evaluation model. The hypothesis of fatigue modulus is inversely related with the fatigue strain amplitude. The fatigue evolution of concrete damages the bond between material grains, changed the orientation of structure of molecules and affects the elastic properties resulting in the reduction of material stiffness and modulus by utilizing strain life analysis, regarding stiffness degradation and inelastic deformation by formation of microcracking, macro cracking, cracking which is heterogeneous and anisotropic in nature . This paper presents the Fatigue Strain Life Model and analyses of fatigue strain, fatigue modulus and damage parameters of concrete which is capable of predicting stiffness degradation, inelastic deformation, strength reduction under fatigue loading. Hence, the obtainable results were compared with experimental results for the validation of the proposed model.

We utilized all Spanish marriage records available at the municipality level from 2005-2007 to model spatial variations in intermarriage. We constructed a spatial regime zero inflated Poisson model and grouped-data probit model, with spatially lagged regressors, to predict the absolute and relative presence of intermarriage between Spaniards and migrants based on structural characteristics of the local marriage markets and their neighboring areas (i.e., relative group size, homogeneity of national origins, and sex ratio indicators). Our models do not assume collapsibility of the marriage market. Instead, they incorporate the local dimension of the marriage market and examine the association between intermarriage and structural variables at the spatial local level. The model also investigates intermarriage variation by size of place. The local characteristics of the marriage markets are robust indicators of both the absolute and relative importance of intermarriage, but their impact varies by size of municipality. The relative size of the migrant community positively impacts intermarriage. The homogeneity of the origins of migrants is negatively related to it. The impact of sex ratios in the migrant and native communities on intermarriage is not uniform across all municipalities and is not always related to more intermarriage.

This article shows that the recently proposed latent D-scoring model of Dimitrov is statistically equivalent to the two-parameter logistic item response model. An analytical derivation and a numerical illustration are employed for demonstrating this finding. Hence, estimation techniques for the two-parameter logistic model can be used for estimating the latent D-scoring model. In an empirical example using PISA data, differences of country ranks are investigated when using different metrics for the latent trait. In the example, the choice of the latent trait metric matters for the ranking of countries. Finally, it is argued that an item response model with bounded latent trait values like the latent D-scoring model might have advantages for reporting results in terms of interpretation.

District heating networks have become widespread due to their ability to distribute thermal energy efficiently, which leads to reduced carbon emissions and improved air quality. The characteristics of these networks vary remarkably depending on the urban layout and system amplitude. Moreover, extensive data about the energy distribution and thermal capacity of different areas are seldom available. Design, optimization and control of these systems are enabled by the availability of fast and scalable models of district heating networks. This work addresses this issue by proposing a novel method to develop a scale-free model of large-scale district heating networks. Starting from coarse data available at the main substations, a physics-based model of the system aggregated regions is developed by identifying the heat capacity and heat loss coefficients. The model validation on the network of Västerås, Sweden, shows compatibility with literature data and can therefore be exploited for system design, optimization and control-oriented applications. In particular, the possibility to estimate the heat storage potential of network regions allows new smart management strategies to be investigated.

The comparison of group means in item response models constitutes an important issue in empirical research. The present article discusses an extension of Haebara linking by proposing a flexible class of robust linking functions for comparisons of many groups. These robust linking functions are particularly suited to item response data that are generated under partial invariance. In a simulation study, it is shown that the newly proposed robust Haebara linking approach outperforms existing approaches of Haebara linking. In an empirical application using PISA data, it is illustrated that country means can be sensitive to the choice of linking functions.

Metastases cause high mortality in several cancers and immunotherapies are expected to be effective in the prevention and treatment of metastatic disease. However, only a minority of patients benefit from immunotherapies. This creates a need for novel therapies that are efficacious regardless of the cancer types and metastatic environments they are growing in. Preclinical immuno-oncology models for studying metastases have long been limited to syngeneic or carcinogenesis-inducible models that have murine cancer and immune cells. However, the translational power of these models has been questioned. Interactions between tumor and immune cells are often species-specific and regulated by different cytokines in mice and humans. For increased translational power, mice engrafted with functional parts of human immune system have been developed. These humanized mice are utilized to advance understanding the role of immune cells in the metastatic process, but increasingly also to study the efficacy and safety of novel immunotherapies. From these aspects, this review will discuss the role of immune cells in the metastatic process and the utility of humanized mouse models in immuno-oncology research for metastatic cancers, covering several models from the perspective of efficacy and safety of immunotherapies.

In the promptness of the COVID-19 outbreak, it would be very important to observe and estimate the pattern of diseases to reduce the contagious infection. To study this effect, we developed a COVID-19 epidemic model that incorporates five various groups of individuals. Then we analyze the model by evaluating the equilibrium points and analyzing their stability as well as determining the basic reproduction number. Also, numerical simulations show the dynamics of a different group of the population over time. Thus, our findings based on the sensitivity analysis and the reproduction number highlight the role of outbreak of the virus that can be useful to avoid a massive collapse in Bangladesh and rest of the world. The outcome of this study concludes that outbreak will be in control which ensure the social and economic stability.

Immune response stimulation may be an adjuvant to antimicrobial treatment. Here, we evaluated the impact of immune response modification by lysophosphatidylcholine (LPC) combined with imipenem or ceftazidime in murine models of peritoneal sepsis (PS) and pneumonia by Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Imipenem and ceftazidime-susceptible strain (Pa39), and imipenem and ceftazidime-resistant strain (Pa238) were used. Ceftazidime pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic parameters were determined. Therapeutic efficacy, and TNF-α and IL-10 levels were determined in murine models of PS and pneumonia by Pa39 and Pa238 treated with LPC, imipenem or ceftazidime, alone or in combination. In PS model, LPC+ceftazidime reduced spleen and lungs Pa238 concentrations (-3.45 and -3.56 log10 CFU/g; P<0.05) than ceftazidime monotherapy, while LPC+imipenem maintained the imipenem efficacy (-1.66 and -1.45 log10 CFU/g; P>0.05). In pneumonia model, LPC+ceftazidime or LPC+imipenem reduced lungs Pa238 concentrations (-2.37 log10 CFU/g, P=0.1, or -1.35 log10 CFU/g, P=0.75). For Pa39 no statistically significant difference has been observed in PS and pneumonia models between combined therapy and monotherapy. Moreover, LPC+imipenem and LPC+ceftazidime decreased and increased significantly TNF-α and IL-10 levels, respectively, in comparison with untreated controls and monotherapies. These results demonstrate the impact of immune response modification by LPC plus antibiotics on the prognosis of infections by ceftazidime-resistant P. aeruginosa.

In this contribution, we aim to show that opinion dynamics and population balance modeling can benefit from an exchange of problems and methods. To support this claim, the Deffuant-Weisbuch model, a classical approach in opinion dynamics, is formulated as a population balance model. This new formulation is subsequently analyzed in terms of moment equations, and conservation of the first and second order moment is shown. Exemplary results obtained by our formulation are presented and agreement with the original model is found. Also the influence of the initial distribution is studied. Additionally, the Deffuant-Weisbuch model is transferred to engineering and interpreted as mass transfer between liquid droplets which results in a more flexible formulation compared to alternatives from the literature. On the one hand, it is concluded that the transfer of opinion-dynamics problems to the domain of population balance modeling offers some interesting insights as well as stimulating challenges for the population-balance community. On the other hand, it is inferred that population-balance methods can contribute to the solution of problems in opinion dynamics. In a broad outlook, some further possibilities of how the two fields can possibly benefit from a close interaction are outlined.

We propose a methodology for the quantification of model risk in the context of credit derivatives pricing and CVA, where the uncertain or unmodelled parameter is often the correlation between rates and credit. We take the rates model to be Hull-White (normal) and the credit model to be Black-Karasinski (lognormal). We show how highly accurate analytic pricing formulae, hitherto unpublished, can be derived for CDS and extended to address instruments with defaultable Libor flows which may in addition be capped and/or floored. We also consider the pricing of a contingent CDS with an interest rate swap underlying. We derive explicit expressions showing how to good accuracy the dependence of model prices on the uncertain parameter(s) can be captured in analytic formulae which are readily amenable to computation without recourse to Monte Carlo or lattice-based computation. In so doing, we take into account the impact on model calibration of the uncertain (or unmodelled) parameter.

We present a generalized state-space model formulation particularly motivated by an online scheduling perspective. Through these proposed generalizations, we enable a natural way to handle routinely encountered disturbances and a rich set of corresponding counter-decisions. Thereby, greatly simplifying and extending the possible application of mathematical programming based online scheduling solutions to diverse application settings.

Finding a good MIMO system model also major issue in Wireless Communication system. It is facing with so many problem, one of the major problem is finding good system model in terms of capacity and transmitting antenna system. In this paper, we analyze the channel capacity of various MIMO system model with some constant SNR level and outage probability. We establish a novel idea for MIMO system models as consider as 2^N- MIMO system model and find-out change in channel capacity when different transmitting antennas with constant SNR and outage probability. The channel capacity ratio CC_R is presented here on the basis of 2^N- MIMO channel capacity model. Number of transmitted antenna presented in MIMO system is increases is well-known however paper shows change in capacity in simple form.

Ozone and fine particles (PM_2.5) are the two main air pollutants of concern in the New South Wales Greater Metropolitan Region (NSW GMR) region due to their contribution to poor air quality days in the region. This paper focuses on source contributions to ambient ozone concentrations for different parts of the NSW GMR, based on source emissions across the greater Sydney region. The observation-based Integrated Empirical Rate Model (IER) was applied to delineate the different regions within the GMR based on the photochemical smog profile of each region. Ozone source contribution is then modelled using the CCAM-CTM (Cubic Conformal Atmospheric Model-Chemical Transport Model) modelling system and the latest air emission inventory for the greater Sydney region. Source contributions to ozone varied between regions, and also varied depending on the air quality metric applied (e.g., average or maximum ozone). Biogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions were found to contribute significantly to median and maximum ozone concentration in North West Sydney during summer. After commercial domestic, power station was found to be the next largest anthropogenic source of maximum ozone concentrations in North West Sydney. However, in South West Sydney, beside commercial and domestic sources, on-road vehicles were predicted to be the most significant contributor to maximum ozone levels, followed by biogenic sources and power stations. The results provide information which policy makers can devise various options to control ozone levels in different parts of the NSW Greater Metropolitan Region.

The paper presents a theoretical and empirical assessment of this social phenomenon. The achieved scientific solution-result (Main Finding) is presented a theoretical model of the develop-ment of public citizenship in a sustainable environment has been created for the case of Lithuania. First of all, the paper discusses the conceptual issues of the expression of modernisation of civil society, highlighting and justifying the interaction of social changes and sustainable environment in economic, social, political, environmental and cultural aspects, presenting the case of Lithuania (The Case of Lithuania). On the other hand, following the United Nations Sustainable Development Strategy document, the field of progress and resilience of Lithuanian society in modern society is discussed, identifying and analysing various criteria that have been empirically tested. The authors noted that the democratic cube model was used to create a theoretical model of the development of public citizenship in a harmonious environment, and the HDI (human development index model) was also integrated. The model created by the authors systematically explains the analysis of the relationship between the expression of modernisation changes identified in the research and the formation of civil society; secondly, it substantiates the process of interaction between modernisation changes and public citizenship, discussing four fields of expression. Practical applicability of the model: it will help researchers to conceptually analyse and empirically study public citizenship; will help public policymakers and implementers to manage effectively, ensuring quality changes in society and managing new challenges, and it will also contribute to the conceptual formation of the country's long-term development strategy.

The option pricing problem is equivalent with the hedging problem of the option, i.e. what the writer should do in order to hedge the risk that she undertakes selling a contract and moreover what is the probability of profit selling at a specific price. The probability of profit is also a useful information for the buyer. The hedging strategy should be practically possible for the writer otherwise has no meaning. In this note we will discuss the option pricing problem and in particular the effect of the volatility on the binomial model which is a way to hedge practically a specific option in contrast to every pricing model that assumes rebuilding of the replicating portfolio continuously in time. In order to use the binomial model we have to modified it accordingly as we have seen in a previous paper. We also point out three open problems regarding the binomial option pricing model.

We develop an 1/n expansion method for the systematic approxi- mation of the solutions of classical spin systems (tri-dimensional vec- tors) which can describe general spin-spin interactions and phases with complex magnetization pattern. This method is applied to study the phase transitions observed in pyrochlore crystals (e.g. Gd₂ Ti₂ O₇ ) and the results have qualitative agreement with the experimental ones.

Conflicts in Indonesia today indicate intolerance towards other religions and cultures. Several places such as Ambon, Papua, Kalimantan and Posso have experienced the increasing effects of intolerance. Conflicts caused by intolerance between groups in societies seem inevitable in various regions. This study tests the effectiveness of tolerance education model, based on local wisdom in the community of Tomohon City in North Sulawesi, Indonesia. The Research and Development (R&D), specifically ADDIE design, was used to test the effectiveness of tolerance education. Data was validated and analyzed using the triangulation of sources, techniques and theories and Miles Huberman model respectively. The results showed that tolerance education was portrayed through elements of mutual help, empathy andcooperation. Therefore, the developed education model increases tolerance significantly. This model is appropriate for people living outside Tomohon City due to different cultural and emotional settings. Tolerance education model can be more effective when using local values from the region to optimize potential and local social capital in society. The teaching material contains a combination of tolerance traits and local wisdom. Tolerance content is obtained from local wisdom values in the communities living in Tomohon City, North Sulawesi, si tou timou tumou tou, Mapalus and Torang Samua Basudara. Efforts to instill a tolerant attitude include education and practice to equip the community with understanding that background differences can trigger empathy.

Head and neck cancer is the sixth most frequent cancer type. Drug resistance and toxicity are common challenges of the existing therapies, making the development of reliable preclinical models essential for the study of the involved molecular mechanisms as well as for eventual intervention approaches that improve the clinical outcome. Preclinical models of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma have been traditionally based in cell lines and murine models. In this review, we will go over the most frequently used preclinical models, from immortalized-cell and primary tumour cultures in monolayer or 3D, to the currently available animal models. We will scrutinize their efficiency in mimicking the molecular and cellular complexity of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. Finally, the challenges and opportunities of other envisaged putative approaches, as well as the potential of the preclinical models to further develop customized therapies will be discussed.

Social networks have become the scenario with the greatest potential for the circulation of disinformation, hence there is a growing interest in understanding how this type of information is spread, especially in relation to the mechanisms used by disinformation agents such as bots, trolls, among others. In this scenario, the potential of bots to facilitate the spread of disinformation is recognised, however, the analysis of how they do this is still in its initial stages. Taking into consideration what was previously stated, this paper aimed to model and simulate scenarios of disinformation propagation in social networks caused by bots based on the dynamics of this mechanism documented in the literature. For achieving the purpose, System dynamics was used as the main modelling technique. The results present a mathematical model, as far as disinformation by this mechanism is concerned, and the simulations carried out against the increase in the rate of activation and deactivation of bots. Thus, the preponderant role of social networks in controlling disinformation through this mechanism, and the potential of bots to affect citizens, is recognised.

We investigate the behavior of thermal quantum coherence in the Heisenberg XXX model for a two-qubit system placed in independently controllable Inhomogeneous magnetic fields applied to two qubits respectively. We discuss the behavior of quantum coherence by systematically varying the coupling parameter, magnetic field, and temperature for both ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic cases. The results show the interesting behavior of quantum coherence in a certain range of parameters. Generally, it is observed that quantum correlations decay with temperature, but in the ferromagnetic case with uniform magnetic interaction, it rises with temperature up to a certain threshold value and ultimately it decreases its value to zero. Moreover, it is observed that preserving the quantum coherence for small temperatures is very hard with the increasing magnetic field because, at small temperatures, quantum coherence decays sharply with the increase in magnetic field whereas at larger temperatures it decays completely at fairly large values of the magnetic field. The variation of quantum coherence with uniform magnetic field in the antiferromagnetic case is observed to be Gaussian for larger temperature but at zero or nearly zero temperature, it behaves as a constant function for uniform magnetic field up to a threshold value and then decays to zero with an infinite slope. This shows the signature of quantum phase transition from quantum nature to classicality.

Compartmental models that dynamically divide the host population in categories such as susceptible, infected and immune constitute the mainstream of epidemiological modelling. Effectively such models treat infection and immunity as binary variables. We constructed an individual based stochastic model that considers immunity as a continuous variable and incorporates factors that bring about small changes in immunity. The small immunity effects (SIE) comprise cross immunity by other infections, small increments in immunity by sub clinical exposures and slow decay in the absence of repeated exposure. The model makes qualitatively different epidemiological predictions including repeated waves without the need for new variants, dwarf peaks (peak and decline of a wave much before reaching herd immunity threshold), symmetry in the upward and downward slopes of a wave, endemic state, new surges after variable and unpredictable gaps, new surge after vaccinating majority of population. In effect the SIE model raises alternative possible causes of the universally observed dwarf and symmetric peaks and repeated surges, observed particularly well during the Covid-19 pandemic. We also suggest testable predictions to differentiate between the alternative causes for repeated waves. The model further shows complex interactions of different interventions that can be synergistic as well as antagonistic. The model suggests that interventions that are beneficial in the short run can also be hazardous in the long run.

Background: Nursing services provided by nurses are based on knowledge and competence in the field of nursing science developed in accordance with Client needs, scientific developments, and the demands of globalization. These health services include nursing services that are carried out responsibly, accountably, with quality, and safely by nurses who have obtained registration and permission to practice. Nursepreneur is innovation and courage to take risks and is ready to work hard to achieve goals with optimism. Which has important components namely: 1) quality, 2) role, 3) option and success. The post-pandemic new world, especially in the health care system, continues to grapple with the demands of costs to provide patient care and safety. By using the application of the nursing theory model. Purpose :. Assessing scientific studies on the application of evidence-based intervention in wound care using nursing theory, identifying the important role of telenursing in improving nursing services in Nerspreneurship, Method: literature study Conclusion: Telenursing in nursing focuses on providing nursing care through information technology, such as telephone, computers, and the Internet that can be used to improve treatment outcomes among older people, especially those with low literacy skills and low financial status (Esmaeilpour-BandBoni et al., 2020). The statement from the results of the study refutes that Telenursing is intended for patients who have higher education and middle and upper economic states.

Shark unprovoked attacks consist of fatal and non-fatal cases. Numerous cases have been reported involving shark species from Carcharhinus melanopterus with length of 145.5 cm to half-ton Carcharodon carcharias. Currently there are more (P < 0.05) unprovoked non-fatal cases with the average is 28.46 cases/shark species (95%CI: 3.86-53.1) than unprovoked fatal cases, which the average is 5.12 cases /shark species (95%CI: -0.075-10.3). Hence this paper seeks to select the best shark size model that correlates with the unprovoked fatal and non-fatal cases. The studied sharks consist of 24 shark species with the average length is 268.18 cm (95%CI: 230-306 cm) and the average weight is 225.42 kg (95%CI: 128-323 kg). Based on the model and as described by low values of AIC and the highest values of R² and adjusted R² , shark weight followed by combinations of shark weight and length produced unprovoked fatal and non-fatal cases best models. The model for explaining unprovoked fatal cases is the shark weight with high numbers of cases observed in large size shark (weight⁓fatal cases, AIC = 165.359, R² = 0.72, Adj. R = 0.71). While for non-fatal cases, the best model is also the shark weight (weight⁓non fatal cases, AIC = 246.93, R² = 0.63, Adj. R = 0.59).

In the last decade, different omic technologies have experiences an exponential technological advancement. However, metabolomics has not followed a similarly vertiginous improving improvement and are far from genomics or transcriptomics in terms of throughput, cost and even accuracy. Therefore, genome-scale in-silico methodologies to estimate metabolic activities from genomic data constitute an active field. The solutions available fall into two extremes: those with few assumptions about the relationships among proteins and metabolites, which are easy-to-use but less accurate and those that account for the complex relationships among molecules and proteins defined in the metabolic pathways, which are more accurate but require mathematical skills. Here, we introduce Metabolica, an algorithm that considers the complex functional relationships among all the molecules and proteins involved in the metabolic pathway analyzed but keeping an easy use that do not require of advanced mathematical skills. Metabolica has been implemented in a freely available software R package. The software inputs transcriptomic data and infers the activities of the reactions that produce the different metabolites in the pathway analyzed. An example shows how detected dysregulated metabolites in several cancers are related to patient survival.

The migration routes have facilitated the distribution of mammals from south east Asian mainland to the Sundaland including Java island in the early Pleistocene. One of species that has migrated through that route is antelope-like bovid Duboisia santeng. In the present study, the potential distribution areas and the suitable habitats of D. santeng have been projected and modeled. The modeled habitat was a forest river basin sizing 302.91 Ha in the central of Java island. The model has classified and reconstructed the habitat suitability ranged from low to high back to Pleistocene. The surrounding areas of forest were mostly classified as medium and low related to the limited tree covers. Most suitable habitats were identified in the middle of forest river basin where the tree covers were presented

In recent years, there have been many new global companies investing and operating in Vietnam as a form of sharing economy (Uber, Grab, Foody, Agoda, Facebook, Google, etc). These kinds of economic models are popular in the world but very new in Vietnam. Sharing economy enterprises bring both benefit and challenges for Vietnam. Before time, there is no policy and law to govern the activities of these companies. So they make the challenges for the authority of Vietnam to manage. This paper will analyze the nature, characters, and impacts of the sharing economy in Vietnam. It also mentions the problems and recommends some solutions to manage the activities of sharing - economy companies.

This study aimed to rank cancers based on the strength of the relationship between the comprehensive mRNA expression levels of the most harmful or protective genes and patient survival. Using The Cancer Genome Atlas dataset that includes the RNA sequencing and c linical data, we investigated not only gene specific prognostic availability, but also comprehensive prognostic availability of prognostic genes filtered by the Cox coefficient values, and ranked cancers using a specially designed prognostic indicator. Usi ng Kaplan Meier plots, we found that cancers vary in the strength of the influence of their prognostic genes, and can be ranked based on this finding. There is a high probability that the treatment developed by using methods that reduce or increase the exp ression levels of biomarkers, for cancers that ranked at the bottom will not be efficient. The results of this study could be used as scientific evidence for the same.

This research discusses the business model challenges faced by cag aggregator platform models in developing countries. Technology-based platforms have been disrupting traditional businesses and rewriting the rules of the game. Ola cabs has been instrumental in shaping the Indian platform business landscape in a big way. Using case methodology the author analyses the situation and business model to present the salient features of Ola’s model. However, this paper also puts the spotlight on the inherent challenges in this model and warns the need for continuous business model innovation and service quality.

Learning models of the cerebellum propose that the cerebellum implements an algorithm which makes iterative adjustments to synaptic transmission strength that collectively determine the response to input in learned patterns following training. We propose instead that pattern recognition and control of firing by output cells are separately handled functions which process independently variable data. This can account for the evidence without a machine learning algorithm. The model is a hybrid of physiological arguments and computational methods used to test and quantify the ideas. We argue inter alia that learning operates at the level of functional groups of Purkinje cells defined by their shared climbing fibre input; Golgi cells have several functions and regulation of parallel fibre activity by Golgi cells is not in the expected way; recoding of input to the cerebellum received in the granular layer converts the number of input variables (variables expressed in mossy fibre input to the system) into a much reduced number of functional variables expressed by internal signals traffic; circuits simultaneously execute separate but integrated functions of pattern memory and output coding; they are able to operate separately because the expression of data used in each varies independently of the other; output rates are not learned but controlled by recent relevant input signals in a window opened by pattern memory; the moment-to-moment probability that a Purkinje cell spikes is synchronised across a microzone; a principal function of functional organisation of Purkinje cells into microzones is to increase resolution of rate coded information received by the output cells of the circuit, and to do so in a very short integration window, so that circuit architecture can be explained partly as a device with this function.

With the focus of great concern of the sustainable development, its evaluation system has become an important operational strategy and practical values. For the purpose of obtaining the stronger indicators and the larger contribution ones, evaluation indicators screening is carried out using interval estimation model, which takes location of production and service facilities of company A as an example. And the weight value of each indicator is further explored, which can provide an direction of decision-making. The result shows that this screening method provides a more scientific evaluation method for enterprise location, decision-making basis for sustainable development of enterprises, and a solid foundation for the construction of the post-evaluation system. The present work implies that this screening method is affected, to different degrees, by the ability, knowledge reserve of the evaluators, which should be more systematic and standardized, and the concept of sustainable development should be strengthened.

An increase of seismic activity is often observed before large earthquakes. Events responsible for this increase are usually named foreshock and their occurrence probably represents the most reliable precursory pattern. Many foreshocks statistical features can be interpreted in terms of the standard mainshock-to-aftershock triggering process and are recovered in the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence ETAS model. Here we present a statistical study of instrumental seismic catalogs from four different geographic regions. We focus on some common features of foreshocks in the four catalogs which cannot be reproduced by the ETAS model. In particular we find in instrumental catalogs a significantly larger number of foreshocks than the one predicted by the ETAS model. We show that this foreshock excess cannot be attributed to catalog incompleteness. We therefore propose a generalized formulation of the ETAS model, the ETAFS model, which explicitly includes foreshock occurrence. Statistical features of aftershocks and foreshocks in the ETAFS model are in very good agreement with instrumental results.

This article aims to serve as a guide for the construction of supply chain simulation models designed with a lean approach, using Promodel software. To achieve this, a supply chain was designed for a fictitious company located in the City of Celaya, Guanajuato and a set of suppliers located in different cities within the same State. It was used as a google tool to define the distances between each of the companies. As a final result, a representative model of a supply chain was obtained, as well as a methodology that allows the construction of lean supply chains regardless of the number of companies that comprise it. The effect of the variability in the delivery times between suppliers was incorporated into the simulation model, as well as an equation that calculates the pollution emissions of the vehicles that integrate the network that moves the products between the companies. With this work it is possible to represent networks of supply chains of real world companies, where the variability and contamination factor is included, to facilitate the decision making regarding the number of vehicles, inventory levels, quantities to be shipped, frequency in the shipments, etc. with the purpose of contaminating as little as possible and at the same time preventing interruptions in the supply chain using the least amount of resources possible.

The Schelling model of segregation allows for a general description of residential movements in an environment modeled by a lattice. The key factor is that occupants change positions until they are surrounded by a designated minimum number of similarly labeled residents. An analogy to the Ising model has been made in previous research, primarily due the assumption of state changes being dependent upon the adjacent cell positions. This allows for concepts produced in statistical mechanics to be applied to the Schelling model. Here is presented a methodology to estimate the entropy of the model for different states of the simulation. A Monte Carlo estimate is obtained for the set of macrostates defined as the different aggregate homogeneity satisfaction values across all residents, which allows for the entropy value to be produced for each state. This produces a trace of the estimated entropy value for the states of the lattice configurations to be displayed with each iteration. The results show that the initial random placements of residents have larger entropy values than the final states of the simulation when the overall homogeneity of the residential locality is increased.

The Stirling engine is a simple type of external-combustion engine with an external combustion engine based on cyclic compression and expansion of gas at different temperature levels. It has high efficiency; low vibration levels, simple structure and can run on any combustible fuels. It has been the object of numerous studies. This paper presents an analysis of a Stirling engine model GENOA 03 for electric power generation, of 3 KW of nominal power with pressurized air as working fluid, currently under development. To improve its performance and ensure a good operational reliability, it is necessary to carry out a modelling of the engine in all its operating range. This requires complex numerical models that simulate the behaviour of any element of the engine in a cycle. Two typologies of thermodynamic models are developed in this work: isothermal and adiabatic. The main benefits and shortcomings of each model are mentioned. The geometry and conditions of the engine have been adapted through the Matlab ® tool, in order to obtain the operative conditions of the cooler that you want to replace, as well as an approximation to the expected behaviour.

Corporate Diagnosis is now recognized as an important tool by decision makers to predict and correct burgeoning problems that a corporation may face. Methods based on this model stem from the use of mathematics and are increasingly being applied in the analysis of production processes. The goal of this paper is to use a logistic regression to design a scoring model for non-financial corporations in industry. Based on the data obtained from the Registry of the Slovak Republic for 738 non-financial corporations, according to SK NACE 26, SK NACE 27, the proportional financial metrics, using the logistic regression method, were calculated. By applying these methods, two logistic regression models were found to reliably estimate the probability of bankruptcy for a firm.

In era of ever-expanding data and knowledge, we lack a centralized system that maps all the faculties to their research works. This problem has not been addressed in the past and it becomes challenging for students to connect with the right faculty of their domain. Since we have so many colleges and faculties this lies in the category of big data problem. In this paper, we present a model which works on the distributed computing environment to tackle big data. The proposed model uses apache spark as an execution engine and hive as database. The results are visualized with the help of Tableau that is connected to Apache Hive to achieve distributed computing.