Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

# Analysis the Dynamics of SIHR Model: Covid-19 Case in Djibouti

Version 1 : Received: 16 June 2020 / Approved: 17 June 2020 / Online: 17 June 2020 (08:16:59 CEST)

How to cite: Souleiman, Y.; Mohamed, A.; Ismail, L. Analysis the Dynamics of SIHR Model: Covid-19 Case in Djibouti. Preprints 2020, 2020060210. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202006.0210.v1 Souleiman, Y.; Mohamed, A.; Ismail, L. Analysis the Dynamics of SIHR Model: Covid-19 Case in Djibouti. Preprints 2020, 2020060210. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202006.0210.v1

## Abstract

The COVID-19 epidemic is an emerging infectious disease of the viral zoonosis type caused by the corona-virus strain SARS-CoV-2, is classified as a human-to-human communicable disease and is currently a pandemic worldwide. In this paper, we propose conceptual mathematical models the epidemic dynamics of four compartments. We have collected data from the Djibouti health ministry. We define the positivity, boundedness of solutions and basic reproduction number. Then, we study local and global stability and bifurcation analysis of equilibrium to examine its epidemiological relevance. Finally, we analyze the fit of the data in comparison with the result of our mathematical results, to validate the model and estimating the important model parameters and prediction about the disease, we consider the real cases of Djibouti from 23th March to 10th June, 2020.

## Keywords

SIHR model; COVID-19; Basic reproduction number; stability analysis; model validation

## Subject

Computer Science and Mathematics, Applied Mathematics

Comment 1
Commenter: Yas Jean
The commenter has declared there is no conflict of interests.
Comment: I really appreciate the analysis in Covid-19 Dj but I suggested adding a prediction / estimate on the frequency of a second wave of it beyond June 10 , 2020.

Best regards.
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