Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Medium-Range Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Power Generation and Ramps in Japan Based on a Hybrid Ensemble

Version 1 : Received: 20 September 2018 / Approved: 20 September 2018 / Online: 20 September 2018 (08:17:46 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Ohba, M.; Kadokura, S.; Nohara, D. Medium-Range Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Power Generation and Ramps in Japan Based on a Hybrid Ensemble. Atmosphere 2018, 9, 423. Ohba, M.; Kadokura, S.; Nohara, D. Medium-Range Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Power Generation and Ramps in Japan Based on a Hybrid Ensemble. Atmosphere 2018, 9, 423.

Journal reference: Atmosphere 2018, 9, 423
DOI: 10.3390/atmos9110423

Abstract

 This study shows the application of self-organizing maps (SOMs) to probabilistic forecasts of wind power generation and ramps in Japan. SOMs are applied to atmospheric variables obtained from atmospheric reanalysis over the region, thus deriving classified weather patterns (WPs). Probabilistic relationships are established between the synoptic-scale atmospheric variables over East Japan and the generation of regionally integrated wind power in East Japan. Medium-range probabilistic wind power predictions are derived by SOM, as analog ensembles based on the WPs of the multi-center ensemble forecasts. As this analog approach handles stochastic uncertainties effectively, probabilistic wind power forecasts are rapidly generated from a very large number of forecast ensembles. The use of a multi-model ensemble provides better results than a one-forecast model. The hybrid ensemble forecasts further improve the probabilistic predictability skill of wind power generation, as compared with non-hybrid methods. It is expected that long-term wind forecasts will provide better guidance to transmission grid operators. The advantage of this method is that it can include an interpretative analysis of meteorological factors for variations in renewable energy.

Subject Areas

self-organizing maps; weather patterns; synoptic circulation; multi-model ensemble; wind power

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