Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Change Associated with Changes in Crop Yields

Version 1 : Received: 10 September 2018 / Approved: 10 September 2018 / Online: 10 September 2018 (10:04:25 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Fujimori, S.; Iizumi, T.; Hasegawa, T.; Takakura, J.; Takahashi, K.; Hijioka, Y. Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Change Driven by Changes in Crop Yields. Sustainability 2018, 10, 3673. Fujimori, S.; Iizumi, T.; Hasegawa, T.; Takakura, J.; Takahashi, K.; Hijioka, Y. Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Change Driven by Changes in Crop Yields. Sustainability 2018, 10, 3673.

Journal reference: Sustainability 2018, 10, 3673
DOI: 10.3390/su10103673

Abstract

Changes in agricultural yields due to climate change will affect land use, agricultural production volume, and food prices as well as macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP which is important as it enables one to compare the climate change impacts across multiple sectors. This study considered five key uncertainty factors and estimated macroeconomic impacts due to crop yield changes using a novel integrated assessment framework. The five factors are 1) land-use change (or yield aggregation method based on spatially-explicit information), 2) the amplitude of the CO2 fertilization effect, 3) the use of different climate models, 4) socioeconomic assumptions and 5) the level of mitigation stringency. We found that their global impacts on the macroeconomic indicator value were 0.02 - 0.06% of GDP in 2100. However, the impacts on the agricultural sector varied greatly by socioeconomic assumption. The relative contributions of these factors to the total uncertainty in the projected macroeconomic indicator value were greater in a pessimistic world scenario characterized by a large population increase and low income (0.6%) than in an optimistic scenario (0.00%).

Subject Areas

Agricultural impacts, climate change impacts, integrated assessment model, CGE model

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