Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Predicting Trends of Coronavirus Disease (COVID19) Using SIRD and Gaussian-SIRD Models

Version 1 : Received: 29 November 2020 / Approved: 1 December 2020 / Online: 1 December 2020 (13:11:02 CET)

How to cite: Sedaghat, A.; Mosavi, A. Predicting Trends of Coronavirus Disease (COVID19) Using SIRD and Gaussian-SIRD Models. Preprints 2020, 2020120021 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202012.0021.v1). Sedaghat, A.; Mosavi, A. Predicting Trends of Coronavirus Disease (COVID19) Using SIRD and Gaussian-SIRD Models. Preprints 2020, 2020120021 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202012.0021.v1).

Abstract

The eruption of COVID-19 patients in 215 countries worldwide has urged for robust predictive methods that can detect as early as possible the size and duration of the contagious disease and also providing precision predictions. In much recent literature reported on COVID-19, one or more essential parts of such investigation were missed. One of the crucial elements for any predictive method is that such methods should fit simultaneously as much data as possible; these data could be total infected cases, daily hospitalized cases, cumulative recovered cases, and deceased cases, and so on. Other crucial elements include sensitivity and precision of such predictive methods on the amount of data as the contagious disease evolved day by day. To show the importance of these aspects, we have evaluated the standard SIRD model and a newly introduced Gaussian-SIRD model on the development of COVID-19 in Kuwait. It is observed that the SIRD model quickly picks up the main trends of COVID-19 development, but the Gaussian-SIRD model provides precise prediction a longer period of time.

Subject Areas

Coronavirus disease; COVID-19; outbreak model; Gaussian-SIRD model; SIRD model; epidemiological model

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