Over the past two decades, persistent occurrences of harmful algal blooms (HAB; Karenia brevis) have been reported in Charlotte County, southwestern Florida. We developed data-driven models that rely on spatiotemporal remote sensing and field data to identify factors controlling HAB propagation, provide a same-day distribution (nowcasting), and forecast their occurrences up to three days in advance. We constructed multivariate regression models using historical HAB occurrences (213 events reported from January 2010 to October 2017) compiled by the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission and validated the models against a subset (20%) of the reported historical events. The models were designed to specifically capture the onset of the HABs instead of those that developed days earlier and continued thereafter. A prototype of an early warning system was developed through a threefold exercise. The first step involved the automatic downloading and processing of daily Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua products using SeaDAS ocean color processing software to extract temporal and spatial variations of remote sensing-based variables over the study area. The second step involved the development of a multivariate regression model for same-day mapping of HABs and similar subsequent models for forecasting HAB occurrences one, two, and three days in advance. Eleven remote sensing variables and two non-remote sensing variables were used as inputs for the generated models. In the third and final step, model outputs (same-day and forecasted distribution of HABs) were posted automatically on a web-based GIS (http://www.esrs.wmich.edu/webmap/bloom/). Our findings include the following: (1) the variables most indicative of the timing of bloom propagation are bathymetry, euphotic depth, wind direction, SST, chlorophyll-a [OC3M] and distance from the river mouth, and (2) the model predictions were 90% successful for same-day mapping and 65%, 72% and 71% for the one-, two- and three-day advance predictions, respectively. The adopted methodologies are reliable, dependent on readily available remote sensing data sets, and cost-effective and thus could potentially be used to map and forecast algal bloom occurrences in data-scarce regions.

The study of the area model of Pinus tabulaeformis forest provides an important reference for improving the management of Pinus tabulaeformis and revealing the growth law of Pinus tabulaeformis. According to the classification method proposed by Munro, stand growth and harvest prediction models are divided into three categories: full stand model, single wood model and diameter distribution model. Based on the fixed sample data of Shangluo Pinus tabulaeformis, the spatial instead of time method is used to process the data, and the weight coefficient of each model in the combined prediction model is calculated by using the optimal weighting method. The single wood model, the whole forest model and the diameter distribution model are combined by the combined prediction method to integrate the fault area prediction of Pinus tabulaeformis forest. The results show that the combined prediction method is more accurate than the single model (single wood model, whole forest model and diameter distribution model). At the same time, the method can improve the compatibility of the forest break area prediction model, ensure the consistency of the forest break area prediction, and provide a new direction for the research of forest resource monitoring and investigation.

Traffic accidents are among the most common causes of death worldwide. According to statistics from the World Health Organization (WHO), 50 million people are involved in traffic accidents every year. Canada, particularly Montreal, is not immune to this problem. Data from the Société de l’Assurance Automobile du Québec (SAAQ) shows that there were 392 deaths on Québec roads in 2022, 38 of them related to the city of Montreal. This value represents an increase of 29.3% for the city of Montreal compared to the average for the years 2017 to 2021. In this context, it is important to take concrete measures to improve traffic safety in the city of Montreal. In this article, we present a web-based solution based on machine learning that predicts the severity of traffic accidents in the city of Montreal. This solution uses dataset of traffic accidents that occurred in Montreal between 2012 and 2021. Classification algorithms such as eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Categorical Boosting (CatBoost), Random Forest (RF) and Gradient Boosting (GB) were used to develop the prediction model. When evaluating the prediction model, performance metrics such as precision, recall, F1 score, and accuracy are taken into account. The performance analysis shows an excellent accuracy of 96% for the prediction model based on the XGBoost classifier. The other models (CatBoost, RF, GB) achieved 95%, 93% and 89% accuracy, respectively. The prediction model based on the XGBoost classifier was deployed using a client-server web application managed by Swagger-UI and the Flask Python framework.

Tight gas, a category of Deep Green Energy Resources, rely on advanced intelligent monitoring methods for their extraction. Conventional logging for reservoir evaluation relies on logging data and the manual setting of evaluation criteria to classify reservoirs. However, the complexity and heterogeneity of tight reservoirs pose challenges in accurately identifying target layers by using traditional well-logging techniques. Machine learning may hold the key to solving this problem, as it enables computers to learn without being explicitly programmed and manually added rules. Therefore, it is possible to make reservoir evaluation via using machine learning methods. In this paper, the reservoir quality index (RQI) and porous geometric parameters obtained from the optimized inversion of the spherical-tubular model are adopted to evaluate the reservoir. Then, three different machine learning approaches, the random forest (RF) algorithm, support vector machine (SVM) algorithm, and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) algorithm, are utilized for reservoir classification. The selected dataset covers more than 7,000 samples from five wells. The data from four wells are arranged as the training dataset, and the data of the remaining one well is designed as the testing dataset to calculate the prediction accuracies of different machine learning algorithms. Among them, accuracies of RF, SVM, and XGB are all higher than 90%, and XGB owns the highest result by reaching 97%. Machine learning based approaches can greatly assist reservoir prediction by implementing the well-logging data. The research highlights the application of reservoir classification with a higher prediction accuracy by combining machine learning algorithms with NMR logging based pore structure characterization, which can provide a guideline for sweet spot identification within the tight formation. This not only optimizes resource extraction but also aligns with the global shift towards clean and renewable energy sources, promoting sustainability and reducing the carbon footprint associated with conventional energy production. In summary, the fusion of machine learning and NMR logging based reservoir evaluation plays a crucial role in advancing both energy efficiency and the transition to cleaner energy sources.

Direct-to-consumer genetic testing companies aim to predict the risks of complex diseases using proprietary algorithms. Companies keep algorithms as trade secrets for competitive advantage, but a market that thrives on the premise that customers can make their own decisions about genetic testing should respect customer autonomy and informed decision making and maximize opportunities for transparency. The algorithm itself is only one piece of the information that is deemed essential for understanding how prediction algorithms are developed and evaluated. Companies should be encouraged to disclose everything else, including the expected risk distribution of the algorithm when applied in the population, using a benchmark DNA dataset. A standardized presentation of information and risk distributions allows customers to compare test offers and scientists to verify whether the undisclosed algorithms could be valid. A new model of oversight in which stakeholders collaboratively keep a check on the commercial market is needed.

In crystal structure prediction, Newton's second law can always be applied to particles (atoms or ions) in a cell to determine their positions. However the values of the period vectors (crystal cell edge vectors) should be determined as well. Here we applied the dynamical equations of period vectors derived recently based on Newton's laws (doi:/10.1139/cjp-2014-0518) for that purpose, where the period vectors are driven by the imbalance between the internal and external pressures/stresses. For equilibrium states, they became equations of state, which essentially turn out the equilibrium conditions of crystals from mechanical point of view. For external pressure, by ignoring some effects, they reduced to the Mie-Gruneisen equation. Since the internal stress has both a full kinetic energy term and a full interaction term, the influences of both external temperature and stress/pressure on crystal structures can be calculated, then thermodynamical properties and processes were presented. Contrary to usual ideas, the equations show that pure harmonic vibrating phonons can result in thermal expansion in crystals when the external temperature is changed. Finally, crystal system collapse due to temperature and/or stress/pressure change was discussed.

Badminton tactics refer to the techniques and strategies employed by players to win a match. Analyzing these tactics can help players improve their performance and outsmart their opponents. To study the tactics of top players, we use a gaming tree to analyze matches between two of the most powerful badminton players in history: Lin and Lee. By employing the Nash Equilibrium, we can discover the most beneficial strategies for both players, which reflect their most powerful techniques. Additionally, with the help of this gaming tree, we can precisely predict how players will implement their tactics. Empirical experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method not only evaluates and identifies each player's weaknesses and strengths but also has powerful capabilities to predict their tactics.

Corona viruses hijack human enzymes to assembly sugar coat on Spike glycoproteins. The mechanism that human antibodies may uncover the antigenic viral peptide epitopes hidden by sugar coat are unknown. In this study, we analyzed recombinant SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein secreted from BTI-Tn-5B1-4 cells, by trypsin and chymotrypsin digestion followed by mass spectrometry analysis. We acquired MS/MS spectrums for glycopeptides of all 22 predicted N-glycosylated sites. We further analyzed the surface accessibility of Spike proteins according to Cryo-EM and homolog-modeled structures, and available antibodies that bind to SARS-CoV-1. The results showed that all 22 N-glycosylated sites of SARS-CoV-2 are modified by high-mannose type of N-glycans. MS/MS fragmentation clearly established the glycopeptide identities. Electron densities of glycans cover most of the Spike receptor binding domain of SARS-CoV-2, except YQAGSTPCNGVEGFNCYFPLQSYGFQPTNGVGYQ, similar to a region FSPDGKPCTPPALNCYWPLNDYGFYTTTGIGYQ in SARS-CoV-1. Other surface-exposed domains included those located on Central Helix, between amino acids 967 and 1016 of SARS-CoV-1, and 985 to 1034 of SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein. As the majority of antibody paratopes bind to peptide portion with or without sugar modification, we propose a snake-catcher model that a minimal length of peptide is first clamped by a paratope, and the binding is either strengthened by sugars close to peptide, or not interfered by sugar modification.

The problem of low soil fertility and limited research in agricultural data driven tools, may lead to low crop productivity which makes it imperative to research in applications of high throughput computational algorithms such as of machine learning (ML) for effective soil analysis and fertility status prediction in order to assist in optimal soil fertility management decision-making activities. However, difficulties in the choice of the key soil properties parameters for use in reliable soil nutrients analysis and fertility prediction. Also, individual ML algorithms setbacks and modelling expert implementation procedures subjectivity, may lead to exploitation of worst fertility level targets and soil fertility status targets classification models performance reported variations. This paper surveys state-of-affair in ML for agricultural soil nutrients analysis and fertility status prediction. Prominent soil properties and widely used classical modelling algorithms and procedures are identified. Empirically exploited fertility status target classes are scrutinized, and reported soil fertility prediction model performances are depicted. The three pass method, with mixed method of qualitative content analysis and qualitative simple descriptive statistics were used in this survey. Observably, the frequently used soil nutrients and chemical properties were organic carbon, phosphorus, potassium, and potential Hydrogen, followed by iron, manganese, copper and zinc. Predominant algorithms included Random Forest, and Naïve Bayes, followed by Support Vector Machine. Model performances varied, with highest accuracy 98.93% and 98.15% achieved by ensemble methods, and the least being 60%. Interdisciplinary ML related researchers may consider using ensemble methods to develop high performance soil fertility status prediction models.

There are guidelines on lactation following maternal analgo-sedative exposure, but these do not consider the effect of maternal fasting, nor fluid abstention on human milk macronutrient composition. We therefore performed a structured search (PubMed) on ‘human milk composition’ and screened title, abstract and full paper on ‘fasting’ or ‘abstention’ and ‘macronutrient composition’ (lactose, protein, fat, solids, triglycerides, cholesterol). This resulted in 6 papers and one abstract related to religious fasting (n=129 women) and observational studies in lactating women (n=23, healthy volunteers, fasting). These data reflect two different ‘fasting’ patterns: an acute (18-25h) model in 71 (healthy volunteers, Yom Kippur/Ninth of Av) women and a chronic fasting (Ramadan) model in 81 women. Changes were most related to electrolytes and were moderate, with almost no changes in macronutrients during acute fasting. We therefor conclude that neither short term fasting nor fluid abstention (18-25h) affect human milk macronutrient composition, so that women can be reassured when this topic were raised during consulting. Besides the nutritional relevance, this also matters as clinical research samples – especially to estimate analgo-sedative exposure by lactation - are commonly collected after maternal procedural sedation, associated with maternal fasting and physiology-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models assume stable human milk composition.

In order to design efficient and sustainable office spaces and to automate lighting, heating and air circulation in these facilities, solving the challenge of occupancy prediction is crucial. In office spaces where large areas need to be observed, multiple sensors must be used for full coverage. In these cases, it is normally important to keep the costs low, but also to make sure that the privacy of the people who use such environments are preserved. Low-cost and low-resolution heat (thermal) sensors can be very useful to build solutions that address these concerns. However, they are extremely sensitive to noise artifacts which might be caused by heat prints of the people who left the space or by other objects which are either using electricity or exposed to sunlight. There are some earlier solutions for occupancy prediction that employ low-resolution heat sensors, however, they have not addressed nor compensate for such heat artifacts. Therefore, in this paper, we present a low-cost and low-energy consuming smart space implementation to predict the number of people in the environment based on whether their activity is static or dynamic in time. We use a low-resolution (8×8) and non-intrusive heat sensor to collect data from an actual meeting room. We propose two novel workflows to predict the occupancy; one based on computer vision and one based on machine learning. Besides comparing the advantages and disadvantages of these different workflows, we use several state-of-the-art explainability methods in order to provide a detailed analysis of the algorithm parameters and how the image properties influence the resulting performance. Furthermore, we analyze noise resources which affect the heat sensor data. We hope that our analysis brings light into understanding how to handle very low-resolution heat images in these environments. The presented workflows could be used in various domains and applications other than smart offices, where occupancy prediction is essential, e.g., for elderly care.

Great Malang region is developing rapidly with the population increase and inhabitant`s activity, like migration and urbanization. Other activities like agricultural expansion as well as an uncontrolled residential development need to be monitored to avoid any negative impact in the future. The availability of free and open-source software, spatial high-resolution satellite imagery datasets, and powerful algorithms open the possibilities to map, monitor, and predict the future trend of land use land cover (LULC) changes. However, the accuracy and precision of this model is still in doubt, especially in the Great Malang region. Research is needed to provide a foundational basis and documentation on how the changes occur, where did the changes occur, and the accuracy of the predicted model. This study tries to answer those questions using the high spatial resolution of Sentinel-2 imageries. Combination of the fuzzy algorithm, artificial neural network, and cellular automata was utilized to process the datasets. We analysed four different scenarios of simulation and the result then compared. The different number of hidden layers and iteration was used and evaluated to understand the effect of different parameters in the prediction result. The best scenario was then used to predict future land use changes. This study has successfully produced the future LULC model of Great Malang region with high accuracy level (87%). The study also found that the land use transformation from agriculture to urban built-up area is relatively low, where changes of the built-up area over three periods of analysis are below than 5%. This is due to the physical condition of Great Malang region where mountainous areas are dominated.

Time series data having low signal-to-noise ratio, non-stationarity and non-linearity are commonly seen in high-frequency stock trading, where the objective is to increase the likelihood of profit by taking advantage of tiny discrepancies in prices and trading on them quickly and in huge quantities. For this purpose, it is essential to apply a trading method that is capable of fast and accurate prediction from such time series data. In this paper, we develop an online time series forecasting method for high-frequency trading (HFT) by integrating three neural network deep learning models, i.e., Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) and Transformer; and we abbreviate the new method to online LGT or O-LGT. The key innovation underlying our method is its efficient storage management, which enables super-fast computing. Specifically, when computing the forecast for the immediate future time, we use only the output calculated from the previous trading data (rather than the previous trading data themselves) together with the current trading data. Thus, the computing involves updating only the current data into the process. We evaluate the performance of O-LGT by analyzing the high-frequency Limit Order Book (LOB) data from the China market. It shows that our model in most cases achieves similar speed with much higher accuracy than the conventional fast supervised learning models for HFT. However, with a slight sacrifice in accuracy, O-LGT is approximately 40 times faster than the existing high-accuracy neural network models for the LOB data in China market.

Highly nonlinear characteristics of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are significantly influenced by the external and internal temperature of the LIB cell. Moreover, cell temperature beyond the manufacturer’s specified safe operating limit could lead to thermal runaway and even fire hazards and safety concerns to operating personnel. Therefore, accurate information of cell internal and surface temperature of LIB is highly crucial for effective thermal management and proper operation of a battery management system (BMS). Accurate temperature information is also essential to BMS for the accurate estimation of various important states of LIB such as state of charge, state of health and so on. High capacity LIB pack, used in electric vehicles and grid-tied stationary energy storage system essentially consists of thousands of individual LIB cells. Therefore, installing a physical sensor at each cell especially at the cell core is not practically feasible from the solution cost, space and weight point of view. A solution is to develop a suitable estimation strategy which led scholars to propose different temperature estimation schemes aiming to establish a balance among accuracy, adaptability, modelling complexity and computational cost. This article presented an exhaustive review of these estimation strategies covering recent developments, current issues, major challenges, and future research recommendations. The prime intention is to provide a detailed guideline to the researchers and industries towards developing a highly accurate, intelligent, adaptive, easy to implement and compute efficient online temperature estimation strategy applicable to health-conscious fast charging and smart onboard BMS.

The food distribution process is responsible for significant quality loss in perishable products. However, preserving quality is costly and consumes a tremendous amount of energy. To tackle the challenge of minimizing transportation costs and CO2 emissions while also maximizing product freshness, a novel multi-objective model is proposed. The model integrates a vehicle routing problem with temperature, shelf life, and energy consumption prediction models, thereby enhancing its accuracy. Non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II is adapted to solve the proposed model for the set of Solomon test data. The conflicting nature of these objectives and the sensitivity of the model to shelf life and shipping container temperature settings are analyzed. The results show that optimizing freshness objective degrade the cost and the emission objectives, and the distribution of perishable foods are sensible to the shelf life of the perishable foods and temperature settings inside the container.

Bayesian models allow us to investigate children’s belief revision alongside physiological states like “surprise”. Recent work finds that pupil dilation (or the “pupillary surprise response”) following expectancy-violations may be predictive of belief revision. How can probabilistic models inform interpretations of “surprise”? Shannon Information considers the likelihood of an observed event, given prior beliefs – suggesting stronger surprise occurs following unlikely events. In contrast, Kullback-Leibler divergence considers the “dissimilarity” between prior beliefs and updated beliefs following observations – with greater surprise indicating more change between belief states to accommodate information. To assess these accounts under different learning contexts, we use Bayesian models that compare these computational measures of “surprise” to contexts where children are asked to either predict or to evaluate the same evidence during a water displacement task. We find correlations between the computed Kullback-Leibler divergence and children’s pupillometry responses only when children actively make predictions, and no correlation between Shannon Information and pupillometry. This suggests that when children attend to their beliefs and make predictions, pupillary responses may signal the degree of divergence between a child’s current beliefs and updated, more accommodating beliefs.

In the steeply inclined and extremely thick coal seams (SIETCS) mined using the horizontal sublevel top-coal caving (HSTCC) method, the uncertainty of gas emission is a safety threat to the mining operations. In order to reduce the occurrence of accidents, the determination of gas emission is crucial. In this paper, we first proposed a prediction model for workers at the floor coalbed to calculate gas emission on site. We then put forward a finite element numerical simulation for researchers to predict gas emission from the floor coalbed. At last, we measured gas emitted from the floor coalbed of SIETCS in Wudong Coal Mine in a specific mining period and used the data to verify the applicability and accuracy of these two gas-emission prediction methods. The results showed that the gas emission from Wudong Coal Mine was 1.08 m³/min calculated based on the prediction model and 1.07 m³/min obtained using the user-defined integration method. Both methods have their own advantages, disadvantages and applicable objects, and are important in predicting gas emission from SIETCS mined using HSTCC method.

Hepatitis C presents a significant global health challenge, necessitating early diagnosis and precise severity classification for timely medical intervention. This study explores the application of machine learning techniques to predict the severity of hepatitis C, leveraging an extensive dataset. Our approach encompasses rigorous data preprocessing, advanced model development, and fine-tuned hyperparameter optimization to ensure accurate and reliable predictions. We evaluated four classification models: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and Support Vector Machine (SVM), comparing their accuracy in classifying patients. The results showed that the Random Forest and Gradient Boosting models outperformed the others with an accuracy of approximately 93.50%, demonstrating their potential in assisting Hepatitis C diagnosis. Further model enhancements through hyperparameter tuning and feature engineering can improve the precision of Hepatitis C diagnosis, contributing to better patient care.

Longitudinal cutting is a most common process in steel structure manufacturing, and the man-hours of the process provide an important basis for enterprises to generate production schedules.However, currently the man-hours in factories are mainly estimated by experts, and the accuracy of this method is relatively low.In this study,we propose a system that predicts man-hours with history data in the manufacturing process and that can be applied in practical structural steel fabrication.The system addresses the data inconsistency problem by one-hot encoding and data normalization techniques,Pearson correlation coefficient for feature selection,and the Random Forest Regression(RFR) for prediction.Compared with the other three Machine Learning(ML) algorithms, the Random Forest algorithm has the best performance.The results demonstrate that the proposed system outperforms the conventional approach and has better forecast accuracy, so that it is suitable for man-hours prediction.

Over the last few decades, there is a remarkable increase in air traffic worldwide; however, despite of rapid technological development and improved airport infrastructure, there is still an increasing number of aviation accidents and fatalities. In order to meet safety demands of Air Traffic Control (ATC), Machine Learning (ML) based aircraft conflict detection techniques are focused to predict events before they come to reality. This research presents a systematic literature review (SLR) about the applications of ML techniques in safety prediction of ATC system. Initially, the existing aircraft conflict prediction models are classified into three broad categories; logical, geometric and probabilistic. A formal process of SLR is then conducted which is initiated with preprocessing and effective searching. A series of filtering called title, abstract and objective-based are then applied to extract the most relevant articles. Detailed and critical reviews of selected articles are performed to identify challenges which are segregated into dataset, model and evaluation techniques, furthermore, the optimal solutions for each are proposed. Finally the matrices to map the identified challenged with their proposed solutions are constructed. This research serves as a foundation for future research and towards integration of ML based safety prediction techniques into modern ATC system.

In this systematic review of the literature on using Machine Learning (ML) for credit risk prediction, we raise the need for financial institutions to use AI and ML to assess credit risk, analyzing large volumes of information. We posed research questions about algorithms, metrics, results, data sets, variables, and related limitations in predicting credit risk. We searched renowned databases to answer them and identified 52 relevant studies with the credit industry microfinance. Challenges and approaches in credit risk prediction using ML models we identified, difficulties with the implemented models such as the black box model, the need for explanatory artificial intelligence, the importance of selecting relevant features, addressing multicollinearity, and the problem of the imbalance in the input data. By answering the questions, we identified that the Boosted Category is the most researched family of ML models; the most commonly used metrics for evaluation are Area Under Curve (AUC), Accuracy (ACC), Recall, precision measure F1 (F1), and Precision; Research mainly uses public data sets to compare models, and private ones to generate new knowledge when applied to the real world. The most significant limitation identified is the representativeness of reality, and the variables primarily used in the microcredit industry are related data to the demographic, the operation, and payment behavior. This study aims to guide the developers of credit risk management tools and software towards the existing offer of ML methods, metrics, and techniques used to forecast it, thereby minimizing possible losses due to default and guiding risk appetite.

Background: Cochlear implantation is an efficient treatment for postlingually deafened adults who do not benefit sufficiently from acoustic amplification. Implantation is indicated when it can be foreseen that speech recognition with a cochlear implant (CI) is superior to that with a hearing aid. Especially for subjects with residual speech recognition it is desirable to predict CI outcome on the basis of preoperative audiological tests. Purpose: The purpose of the study was to extend and to refine a previously developed model for CI outcome prediction for subjects with preoperative word recognition to include subjects with no residual hearing by incorporat-ing additional results of routine examinations. Results: By introducing the duration of unaided hearing loss (DuHL) the median absolute error (MAE) of the prediction was reduced. While for subjects with preoperative speech recognition the model modification did not change the MAE, for subjects with no residual speech recognition before surgery, the MAE decreased from 23.7% with the previous model to 17.2% with the extended model. Conclusions: Prediction of word recognition with CI is possible within clinically relevant limits. Outcome prediction is particu-larly important for preoperative counselling and in CI aftercare, to support systematic monitor-ing of CI fitting.

The prediction of stock prices holds significant implications for researchers and investors in evaluating stock value and risk. In recent years, researchers have increasingly replaced traditional machine learning methods with deep learning approaches in this domain. However, the application of deep learning in forecasting stock prices is confronted with the challenge of overfitting. To address the issue of overfitting and enhance predictive accuracy, this study proposes a stock prediction model based on GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) with reconstructed datasets. This model integrates data from other stocks within the same industry, thereby enriching the extracted features and mitigating the risk of overfitting. Additionally, an auxiliary module is employed to augment the volume of data through dataset reconstruction, thereby enhancing the model’s training comprehensiveness and generalization capabilities. Experimental results demonstrate a substantial improvement in prediction accuracy across various industries.

'Huangguan' pear has significant social and economic value, and phosphorus, as one of the three main mineral elements of plants, has an irreplaceable effect on the normal growth of 'Huangguan' pear trees. The objective of this study was to predict the content of phosphorus in the pulp and peel of ‘Huangguan’ pears nondestructively and conveniently by using near-infrared spectroscopy (900–1700 nm) technology. First, twelve algorithms are used to preprocess the original spectral data, and the partial least squares regression algorithm and the gradient boosting regression tree algorithm are used to build a full-band prediction model based on the original spectral data and the processed spectral data. The characteristic wavelengths were extracted using genetic algorithms, followed by establishing a characteristic wavelength prediction model. The prediction accuracy of the models was evaluated according to the coefficient of determination R² and the relative analysis error RPD. The study found that the best prediction model for predicting phosphorus content in the pulp of 'Huangguan' pear was MSC-GA-PLSR, which had R²=0.843 and RPD=1.857 in the modelling set and R²=0.989 and RPD=7.041 in the prediction set. The best prediction model for predicting phosphorus content in the peel of ‘Huangguan’ pear was SG+SNV+FD-GA-PLSR, which had R²=0.991 and RPD=7.470 in the modelling set and R²=0.974 and RPD=4.414 in the prediction set, and the effect was good and met expectations. The results demonstrated that near-infrared spectroscopy could successfully achieve nondestructive detection of phosphorus content in the pulp and peel of 'Huangguan' pears.

We present a hierarchical reinforcement learning (RL) architecture that employs various low-level agents to act in the trading environment, i.e. the market. The highest level agent selects among a group of specialised agents, and then the selected agent decides when to sell or buy a single asset for some period. This period can be variable according to a termination function. We hypothesized that due to different market regimes, more than one single agent is needed when trying to learn from such heterogeneous data, and instead, multiple agents will perform better, with each one specialising in a subset of the data. We use $k-means$ clustering to partition the data and train each agent with a different cluster. Partitioning the input data also helps model-based RL (MBRL), where models can be heterogeneous. We also add two simple decision-making models to the set of low-level agents, diversifying the pool of available agents and thus increasing overall behaviour flexibility. We perform multiple experiments showing the strengths of a hierarchical approach and test various prediction models at both levels. We also use a risk-based reward at the high level, which transforms the overall problem into a risk-return optimization. This type of reward shows a significant reduction in risk while minimally reducing profits. Overall, the hierarchical approach shows significant promise, especially when the pool of low-level agents is highly diverse.

Data scarcity is a significant challenge in the field of Machine Learning (ML), as data collection can be expensive, time-consuming, and difficult, particularly in developing countries. This challenge is exaggerated on the need to use dataset for livestock disease predictions for early intervention and surveillance. To address this challenge, this paper presents a data synthesis method that has been used to accurately generate new data samples from few real-world data. With much data available to train the ML models, overfitting is eliminated. We present the use of Generative Adversarial Networks mainly the Conditional Tabular Generative Adversarial Network to synthesize categorical data for training machine learning models for prediction of the Pestes des Petits Ruminants (PPR) disease. The results showed that training score became 0.89 and the cross-validation score was 0.87 after synthesized data was used with Random Forest algorithm. The resulting dataset can be used to support the prediction and surveillance of the Pestes des Petits Ruminants (PPR) disease. The proposed method can also be applied to any domain with categorical data, and has the potential to improve the performance of machine learning models with increased data availability.

Background: The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) is a scoring system used for the evaluation of disease severity and prognosis of critically ill patients. The impedance ratio (Imp-R) is a novel mortality predictor. Aims: This study aimed to evaluate the combination of SOFA + Imp-R in the prediction of mortality in critically ill patients admitted to the emergency department (ED). Methods: A retrospective cohort study was performed in adult patients with acute illness admitted to the ED of a tertiary-care referral center. Baseline SOFA score and bioelectrical impedance analysis to obtain the Imp-R were performed within the first 24 hours after admission to the ED. A Cox regression analysis was performed to evaluate mortality risk of initial SOFA score plus Imp-R. Harrell's C-statistic and decision curve analyses (DCA) were performed. Results: Out of 325 patients, 240 were included for analysis. Overall mortality was 31.3%. Only 21.3% of non-surviving patients died after hospital discharge, and 78.4% died during hospital stay. Of the latter, 40.6% died in the ED. SOFA and Imp-R values were higher in non-survivors and were significantly associated with mortality in all models. The combination of SOFA + Imp-R significantly predicted 30-day mortality, in-hospital mortality, and ED mortality with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.80 (95% CI: 74-0.86), 0.79 (95% CI: 0.74-0.86) and 0.75 (95% CI: 0.66-0.84) respectively. The DCA showed that combining SOFA + Imp-R improved the prediction of mortality through the lower risk thresholds. Conclusion: The addition of Imp-R to baseline SOFA score at admission to the ED improves mortality prediction in severely acutely ill patients admitted to the ED.

Identifying and anticipating potential failures in the cloud is an effective method for increasing cloud reliability and proactive failure management. Many studies have been conducted to predict potential failure, but none have combined SMART (Self-Monitoring, Analysis, and Reporting Technology) hard drive metrics with other system metrics such as CPU utilisation. Therefore, we propose a combined metrics approach for failure prediction based on Artificial Intelligence to improve reliability. We tested over 100 cloud servers’ data and four AI algorithms: Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Long-Short-Term Memory, and Gated Recurrent Unit. Our experimental result shows the benefits of combining metrics, outperforming state-of-the-art.

In the process of metal cutting, the anti-wear performance of the tool determines the life of the tool and affects the surface quality of the workpiece. The finite element simulation method can directly show the tool wear state and morphology, but due to the limitations of the simulation time and complex boundary conditions, it has not been commonly used in tool life prediction. Based on this, a tool wear model was established on the platform of a finite element simulation software for the cutting process of titanium alloy TC4 by end milling. The key technique is to embed different types of tool wear models into the finite element model in combination with the consequent development technology. The effectiveness of the tool wear model is validated by comparing the experimental results with the simulation results. At the same time, in order to quickly predict the tool life, an empirical prediction formula of tool wear was established, and the change course of tool wear under time change was obtained.

In crystal periodic structure prediction, a general equation is needed to determine the period vectors (cell edge vectors), especially when crystals are under arbitrary external stress. It has been derived in Newtonian dynamics years ago, which can be combined with quantum mechanics by further modeling. Here we derived such an equation in statistical physics, applicable to both classical physics and quantum physics by itself.

Decision-makers are concerned with the inherent complexity of the modern world's markets. However, price fluctuations, environmental concerns, technological development, emerging markets, political challenges, and social expectations made the 21^st century's more dynamic and complex. From a policy-making perspective, it is vital to uncover future trends. This paper proposed that artificial intelligence can improve interpretations in complex markets, such as financial and energy markets. In a complex environment, it is critical to investigate maximum available input features to ensure no valuable informative feature is neglected. Some AI-based models are investigated and presented that AI-based models can successfully uncover future trends. From a scenario development perspective purified input features subset refer to driving forces which shape alternative futures. Results showed that using AI can improve our understanding of how input features influence future behaviors and simultaneously improves prediction accuracy and reliability.

Modern companies accumulate a vast amount of customer data that can be used for creating a personalized experience. Analyzing this data is difficult and most business intelligence tools cannot cope with the volume of the data. One example is churn prediction, where the cost of retaining existing customers is less than acquiring new ones. Several data mining and machine learning approaches can be used, but there is still little information about the different algorithm settings to be used when the dataset doesn't fit into a single computer memory. Because of the difficulties of applying feature selection techniques at a large scale, Incremental Probabilistic Component Analysis (IPCA) is proposed as a data preprocessing technique. Also, we present a new approach to large scale churn prediction problems based on the mini-batch Stochastic Gradient Decent (SGD) algorithm. Compared to other techniques, the new method facilitates training with large data volumes using a small memory footprint while achieving good prediction results.

To accurately identify high-quality functional wood with superior mechanical properties and enhance its durability, it is imperative to understand the relationships between the physical and mechanical attributes of diverse wood types. Presently, there exist issues related to accuracy, efficiency, and differentiation in studying these performance correlations. The Liang Kleeman (L-K) information flow theory, a causative analytical approach rooted in fundamental physics principles, offers swift computational capabilities. Furthermore, the coefficient of variation in L-K information flow quantitatively gauges the intensity of causal effects. Therefore, this article adopts a causal artificial intelligence perspective and introduces a wood performance analysis method based on L-K information flow.This study focuses on four Chinese fir varieties, including fast-growing Chinese fir (YKS), red heart Chinese fir (CSH, XXH), and iron heart Chinese fir (XXT). By computing and comparing variation coefficients of L-K information flow for various physical properties and their impact on mechanical properties, causal relationships between these properties are elucidated. These findings are then applied to predict wood mechanical properties, achieving a remarkable maximum accuracy of 90%.In the future, these findings will prove invaluable for the selection of high-quality wood and for improving the manufacturing process to prolong the service life of functionalized wood.

Successful engineering of a microbial host for efficient production of a target product from a given substrate can be viewed as an extensive optimization task. Such a task involves the selection of high activity enzymes as well as their gene expression regulatory control elements (i.e., promoters and ribosome binding sites). Finally, there is also the need to tune expression of multiple genes along a heterologous pathway to relieve constraints from rate-limiting step and help reduce metabolic burden on cells from unnecessary over-expression of high activity enzymes. While the aforementioned tasks could be performed through combinatorial experiments, such an approach incurs significant cost, time and effort, which is a handicap that can be relieved by application of modern machine learning tools. Such tools could attempt to predict high activity enzymes from sequence, but they are currently most usefully applied in classifying strong promoters from weaker ones as well as combinatorial tuning of expression of multiple genes. This perspective reviews the application of machine learning tools to aid metabolic pathway optimization through identifying challenges in metabolic engineering that could be overcome with the help of machine learning tools.

In recent years, intelligent identification and prediction of ore deposits based on deep learning algorithm and image processing technology has gradually become one of the research frontiers in the field of geological and metallogenic prediction. However, this method also has many problems that need to be solved. For example, (1) very few trainable image samples containing mineral point labels; (2) The geological image features are small and irregular, and the image similarity is high; (3) It is difficult to calculate the influence of different geological prospecting factors on ore mineralization. Based on this, this paper constructs a deep learning network model Multiscale Feature Attention Framework (MFAF) based on geo-image data. The results show that MFCA-Net module in MFAF model can solve the problem of scarce mine label images to a certain extent. In addition, the channel attention mechanism SE-Net module can quantify the difference of influence of different source factors on mineralization. The prediction map is obtained by applying the MFAF model in the study of deposit identification and prediction in the research area of the southern section of Qin-hang metallogenic Belt. In the forecast map, many regions have high metallogenic potential. Through observation, it is found that the above predicted area covers 100% of the known ore deposits at present, which has a good prediction effect. Later, we can find out the specific reasons through field verification. The multi-scale feature fusion and attention mechanism MFA Framework in this paper can provide a new way of thinking for geologists in mineral exploration. The research of this paper also provides resource guarantee and technical support for the sustainable exploitation of mineral resources and the sustainable growth of society and economy.

A time integration scheme based on semi-Lagrangian advection and Laplace transform adjustment has been implemented in a baroclinic primitive equation model. The semi-Lagrangian scheme makes it possible to use large time steps. However, errors arising from the semi-implicit scheme increase with the time step size. In contrast, the errors using the Laplace transform adjustment remain relatively small for typical time steps used with semi-Lagrangian advection. Numerical experiments confirm the superior performance of the Laplace transform scheme relative to the semi-implicit reference model. The algorithmic complexity of the scheme is comparable to the reference model, making it computationally competitive, and indicating its potential for integrating weather and climate prediction models.

Transcriptional regulations have been widely studied as one of the main bridges between biology and other basic sciences as well as medicine. The traffic across it has been mostly unidirectional: chemistry and physics provided a lot of tools for biology, although the supply is now saturating. The traffic in opposite direction, the supply of subjects to develop chemistry and physics, has been only a little. However, if there are any, the supply will be at least from transcription, because the notion of chemical reaction is the strongest. This topic is aimed to increase the opposite traffic by introducing the forefront of physicochemical studies of transcription.

This study investigates the complex interplay between public sentiment, as captured through news titles and descriptions, and the stock prices of three major tech companies: Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL). Leveraging advanced analytical methods including Pearson correlation, wavelet coherence, and regression analysis, this research probes the degree to which stock price fluctuations can be attributed to the polarity of media sentiment. The methodology combines statistical techniques to assess sentiment's predictive power on stock opening and closing prices, while wavelet coherence analysis unveils the temporal dynamics of these relationships. Results demonstrate a significant correlation between sentiment polarity and stock prices, with description polarity affecting Microsoft's opening prices, title polarity influencing Tesla's opening prices, and a positive impact of title polarity on Apple's closing prices. However, Tesla's stock showed no significant coherence, indicating a potential divergence in how sentiment affects stock behavior across companies. The study highlights the importance of sentiment analysis in forecasting stock market trends, revealing not only direct correlations but also lagged influences on stock prices. Despite its focus on large-cap tech firms, this research provides a foundational understanding of sentiment's financial implications, suggesting further investigation into smaller firms and other market sectors.

Living organisms are active open systems far from thermodynamic equilibrium. The ability to behave actively corresponds to dynamical metastability: minor but supercritical internal or external effects may trigger major substantial actions such as gross mechanical motion, dissipating internally accumulated energy reserves. Gaining selective advantage from beneficial use of activity requires a consistent combination of sensual perception, memorised experience, statistical or causal prediction models, and resulting favourable decisions on actions. This information processing chain originated from mere physical interaction processes prior to life, here denoted as structural information exchange. From there, the self-organised transition to symbolic information processing marks the beginning of life, evolving by novel purposivity of trial-and-error feedback and accumulation of symbolic information. The emergence of symbols and prediction models can be described as a ritualisation transition, a symmetry-breaking kinetic phase transition of the 2^nd kind previously known from behavioural biology. The related new symmetry is the neutrally stable arbitrariness, conventionality or code invariance of symbols with respect to their meaning. The meaning of such symbols is given by the structural effect they ultimately unleash, directly or indirectly, by deciding on which actions to take. The early genetic code represents the first symbols. The genetically inherited symbolic information is the first prediction model for activities sufficient for survival under the condition of environmental continuity, sometimes understood as a “final causality” property of the model.

Urban rail transit offers advantages like high safety, energy efficiency, and environmental friendliness. With cities rapidly expanding, travelers are increasingly using rail systems, heightening demands for passenger capacity and efficiency while also pressuring these networks. Passenger flow forecasting is an essential part of transportation systems. Short-term passenger flow forecasting for rail transit can estimate future station volumes, providing valuable data to guide operations management and mitigate congestion. This paper investigates short-term forecasting for Suzhou's Shantang Street station. Shantang Street's high commercial presence and distinct weekday versus weekend ridership patterns make it an interesting test case. Wavelet denoising and LSTM modeling were combined to predict short-term flows, comparing the results to standalone LSTM and SVR approaches. This study illustrates that the adopted algorithms exhibit good performance for passenger prediction. The LSTM model with wavelet denoising proved most accurate, demonstrating applicability for short-term rail transit forecasting and practical significance.

The impact of the accurate estimated time of arrival (ETA) is often overlooked by bus operators. By providing accurate ETA to riders, it gives them the impression of bus services is efficient and reliable and this promotes higher ridership in the long run. This research project aims to predict bus arrival time by using the Support Vector Regression (SVR) model which is based on the same theory as the Support Vector Machine (SVM). Urban City Bus data covering part of the Petaling Jaya area (route name PJ03) is used in this research work. Features related to traffic such as travel duration, a distance of the road, weather and operation at peak or non-peak hour have been used as input in the training of the SVR model. By using kernel trick and specifying optimum parameters, all the features in higher dimensions are efficiently calculated and the SVR model achieves convergence. The model is evaluated with the test set of data split from the original dataset. The experimental result indicates the SVR model displays good prediction ability with its low average error on the prediction result. However, weather data has not been influential to the prediction model as the results of the model trained with and without weather data show a negligible difference.

The purpose of this work is to compare two fracture prediction models with real-world data. The pure Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model emphasizes regression analysis, while the hybrid model (SVM-ANN) focuses on the combination of regression and classification analysis or Support Vector Machine. The results were subsequently tested against logging data by combining the Machine Learning approach with advanced logging tools. In this context, we used electrical image logs and the dipole acoustic tool which together allowed the distinction of 404 open fractures and 231 closed fractures and, consequently the estimation of fracture porosity. The results are then fed into two machine-learning algorithms. Pure Artificial Neural Networks and hybrid models are used to establish comprehensive results, which are subsequently tested to check the accuracy of the models. The outputs obtained from the two methods demonstrate that the hybridized model has a lower Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) than pure ANN. The results of our approach strongly suggest that incorporating hybridized machine learning algorithms in fracture porosity estimations can contribute to the development of more trustworthy static reservoir models in simulation programs. Finally, the combination of Machine Learning (ML) and well-log analysis do permit reliable estimation of fracture porosity in the Ahnet field in Algeria, where, in many places, advanced logging data is absent and costly.

With the growing of university chemistry experiment projects, scientific research personnel, specialized equipment, laboratory accident is increasing yearly. And accident data lacks a safety platform to store related information and cannot be guaranteed for efficient conditional sharing. To solve these problems, we designed a laboratory accident system to store, share related data and predict risk level. In this paper, we manually collected chemistry laboratory accidents by python software and class assignments, then analyses risk factor variables using Spsspro, finally established a prediction model using Stata. We intended to register laboratory related data into proposed chemistry accident system based on data ownership safety architecture. The chemistry accident system can break data barriers using confirmation and authorization key technology to trace non-tampered data source in real time when emergency accident happens. Meanwhile, our proposed system can use our designed accident risk model to predict risk level of any experiment project. It can also recommend appropriate safety education models.

The Sugarcane yellow leaf virus (SCYLV) is associated with sugarcane yellow leaf disease (SCYLD) and is considered to be the most economically deleterious emerging pathogen that represents a potential threat and danger to sugarcane cultivation in China. Over the last two decades, high genetic diversity in the SCYLV genotypes was observed worldwide, with a greater chance of YLD incidence for sugarcane injury. SCYLV infection has significantly damaged its economic traits and is responsible for substantial losses in biomass production in sugarcane cultivars. This study aims to identify and comprehensively analyze sugarcane microRNAs (miRNAs) as therapeutic targets against SCYLV using plant miRNA prediction tools. Mature sugarcane miRNAs are retrieved and are used for hybridization of the SCYLV. A total of seven common sugarcane miRNAs were selected based on consensus genomic positions. The biologically significant, top ranked ssp-miR528 was consensually predicted to have a potentially unique hybridization site at nucleotide position 4162 for targeting the ORF5 of the SCYLV genome; this was predicted by all the algorithms used in this study. Then, the miRNA–mRNA regulatory network was generated using the Circos algorithm, which was used to predict novel targets. There are no acceptable commercial SCYLV-resistant sugarcane varieties available at present. Therefore, the predicted biological data offer valuable evidence for the generation of SCYLV-resistant sugarcane plants.

Many complex networks have a connectivity that might be only partially detected or that tends to grow over time, hence the prediction of non-observed links is a fundamental problem in network science. The aim of topological link prediction is to forecast these non-observed links by only exploiting features intrinsic to the network topology. It has a wide range of real applications, like suggesting friendships in social networks or predicting interactions in biological networks.The Cannistraci-Hebb theory is a recent achievement in network science that includes a theoretical framework to understand local-based link prediction on paths of length n. In this study we introduce two innovations: theory of modelling (science) and theory of realization (engineering). For the theory of modelling we first recall a definition of network automata as a general framework for modelling the growth of connectivity in complex networks. We then show that several deterministic models previously developed fall within this framework and we introduce novel network automata following the Cannistraci-Hebb rule. For the theory of realization, we present how to build adaptive network automata for link prediction, which incorporate multiple deterministic models of self-organization and automatically choose the rule that better explains the patterns of connectivity in the network under investigation. We compare Cannistraci-Hebb adaptive (CHA) network automaton against state-of-the-art link prediction methods such as structural perturbation method (SPM), stochastic block models (SBM) and artificial intelligence algorithms for graph embedding. CHA displays an overall higher link prediction performance across different evaluation frameworks on 1386 networks. Finally, we highlight that CHA offers the key advantage to explicitly explain the mechanistic rule of self-organization which leads to the link prediction performance, whereas SPM and graph embedding not. In comparison to CHA, SBM unfortunately shows irrelevant and unsatisfactory performance demonstrating that SBM modelling is not adequate for link prediction in real networks.

Members of the DUF34 (domain of unknown function 34) family, also known as the NIF3 protein superfamily, are ubiquitous across superkingdoms. Proteins of this family have been widely annotated as “GTP cyclohydrolase I type 2” through electronic propagation based on one study. Here, the annotation status of this protein family was examined through comprehensive literature review and integrative bioinformatic analyses that revealed varied pleiotropic associations and phenotypes. This analysis combined with functional complementation studies strongly challenges the current annotation and suggests that DUF34 family members may serve as metal ion insertases, chaperones, or metallocofactor maturases. This general molecular function could explain how DUF34 subgroups participate in highly diversified pathways such as cell differentiation, metal ion homeostasis, pathogen virulence, redox and universal stress responses.

Selective laser melting (SLM) is one of the widely used techniques in metallic additive manufacturing, in which high-density laser powder is utilized to selectively melting layers of powders to create geometrically complex parts. Temperature distribution and molten pool geometry directly determine the balling effect, and concentrated balling phenomenon significantly deteriorates surface integrity and mechanical properties of the part. Finite element models have been developed to predict temperature distribution and molten pool geometry, but they were computationally expensive. In this paper, the three-dimensional temperature distributions are predicted by analytical models using point moving heat source and semi-ellipsoidal moving source respectively. The molten pool dimensions under various process conditions are obtained from the three-dimensional temperature predictions and experimentally validated. Ti-6Al-4V alloy is chosen for the investigation. Good agreements between the predictions and the measurements are observed. The presented models are also suitable for other metallic materials in the SLM process.

One of the most important problems in the presence of epidemics and pandemics is an accurate prediction and preparedness. Scholars and experts argue that future pandemics and/or epidemics are almost inevitable events and is not whether next pandemics will happen, but when a new heath emergency will emerge. Epidemiologic models for prediction of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) have shown many limitations because of unpredictable dynamics of the new viral agent SARS-CoV-2 in environment and society. The main goals of this study are twofold: first, the analysis of anthropogenic activities and factors that may trigger pandemic threats; second, the planning of new directions for strategies to reduce risks that a pandemic threat emerges and/or in the initial phase to reduce vast diffusion and negative impact of new viral agents that can generate hazards and problems in public health, environment and socioeconomic systems. In particular, the investigation and understanding of sources and driving factors concerning the emergence and diffusion of new pandemics have critical aspects for strategic actions of forecast, prevention and preparation of effective policy responses to cope with next pandemic crises and health emergencies. Insights here endeavor, whenever possible, to clarify these problems to increase the knowledge of the sources and factor determining the emergence of new viral agents in order to design optimal response policies to face next pandemic diseases similar to COVID-19. .

During the night between 9 and 10 September 2017, multiple flash floods associated to a heavy-precipitation event affected the town of Livorno, located in Tuscany, Italy. Accumulated precipitation exceeding 200 mm in two hours, associated with a return period higher than 200 years, caused all the largest streams of the Livorno municipality to flood several areas of the town. We used the limited-area Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, in a convection-permitting setup, to reconstruct the extreme event leading to the flash floods. We evaluated possible forecasting improvements emerging from the assimilation of local ground stations and X- and S-band radar data into the WRF, using the configuration operational at the meteorological center of Tuscany region (LaMMA) at the time of the event. Simulations were verified against weather station observations, through an innovative method aimed at disentangling the positioning and intensity errors of precipitation forecasts. By providing more accurate descriptions of the low-level flow and a better assessment of the atmospheric water vapour, the results demonstrate that assimilating radar data improved the quantitative precipitation forecasts.

In this paper a novel and flexible solution for fault prediction based on data collected from Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system is presented. Generic fault/status prediction is offered by means of a data driven approach based on a self-organizing map (SOM)and the definition of an original Key Performance Indicator (KPI). The model has been assessed on a park of three photovoltaic (PV) plants with installed capacity up to 10 MW, and on more than sixty inverter modules of three different technology brands. The results indicate that the proposed method is effective in predicting incipient generic faults in average up to 7 days in advance with true positives rate up to 95%. The model is easily deployable for on-line monitoring of anomalies on new PV plants and technologies, requiring only the availability of historical SCADA data, fault taxonomy and inverter electrical datasheet.

Breast cancer is the most common malignancy in women worldwide. The pathogenesis of this disease is closely related to the estrogen receptor alpha subtype (ERα). Therefore, it is of great importance to develop effective inhibitors of ERα activity for the treatment of breast cancer. In this paper, we propose a novel ensemble machine learning model for quantitative structure-activity relationship of anti-breast cancer drugs, which can effectively predict drug activity in small samples with multiple characteristic variables. To avoid the problem of over-fitting caused by low-correlation independent variables, the scoring mechanism of random forest was improved by incorporating three relevance indicators, including the maximum mutual information number, Pearson correlation coefficient and distance correlation coefficient, and 20 optimal molecular descriptors were selected. The Bayesian hyperparameter optimization method was used to optimize the parameters of multiple linear regression (MLR), support vector regression (SVR), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), respectively. The AdaBoost strong learner was constructed by combining the weak learner with the weighted linear addition method. The results show that the proposed ensemble learning model has the best prediction performance compared to the three basic learner models and the CNN-LSTM combination prediction model. The root mean square error was reduced by 7.60%-26.51%. The mean relative error was reduced by 6.46%-30.92%. Goodness of fit increased by 9.57%-36.94%. Finally, the biological activities of 50 candidate compounds for ERα inhibitors were predicted, and it was found that 4-[2-benzyl-1-[4-(2-pyrrolidin-1-ylethoxy)phenyl]but-1-enyl]phenol had an excellent biological activity value pIC50, which had the potential to be an ERα inhibitor. The model proposed in this paper has good prediction accuracy, which can provide an effective reference for the discovery and development of anti-breast cancer drugs.

ClinVar is a web platform that stores around 774k curated entries, which allows exploring genetic variants and their associations with complex phenotypes. A partial set of ClinVar’s genetic associations were reported with conflict of interpretation or uncertain clinical impact significance, which currently challenges clinicians and geneticists. Here, we evaluate the performance of data pre-processing methods combined with classical prediction methods, such as Naive Bayes, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine to build a meta-prediction model aiming to improve genetic pathogenicity interpretation. Models were trained with ClinVar data (September 2020), and genetic variants were annotated with eight functional impact predictors catalogued with SnpEff/SnpSift (v4.3). A 10-fold cross-validation strategy was performed for evaluation by accuracy, F1-Score, Receiver Operating Characteristic, Area Under Curve. The best meta-prediction model raises by combining one-hot encoding with tree-based classifiers as Random Forest, which shows Area Under Curve ≥ 0,93. We predict pathogenicity for 109k genetic variants, which were found labeled as uncertain significance or conflict of interpretation. Additionally, we implemented AmazonForest (https://www.lghm.ufpa.br/amazonforest), a web tool to query data for a set of 5k variants that were predicted with high pathogenic probability (RFprob >= 0.9).

An important aspect of PET imaging in clinical application is the localization and detection of tumors and lesions by administering a predetermined amount of radiotracer. This allows for example, a detailed view of what is going inside the patient body in cellular level. The quality of PET image is strongly dependent on the amount of administrated radiotracer and the patient’s body parameters. As the amount of injection radiotracer increases, the quality of resulting image increases and the lesion detection efficiency increases. The PET examiner society recognizes that any dose of radiotracer is associated with some possible radiation risks. It can harmful to the patient if essential PET imaging session is not made due to fear of radiation risk. In order to ensure the highest quality diagnosis and the smallest radiation risk, the patient should receive the smallest amount of radiotracer that provide image with sufficient quality. Our study is focused on proposing an efficient PET simulation tool that predict the smallest possible amount of administrated radiotracer to provides the appropriate diagnostic information based on significant patient’s body parameters (weight, age) at fixed scanning to improve the clinical diagnostic process in term of tumor detecting and localization. We have built a model of particular PET scanner and model of patient based on real MRI image and digital anthropomorphic phantom of our region of interest (brain). We have performed Monte Carlo simulation for whole PET procedure with special parameter In evaluating stage, a dataset of 60 patient is used and 11 independent dose prediction simulation for each patient are performed. We conclude that our simulator perform a desirable and efficient prediction of injection radiotracer amount that optimizes the current clinical amount up to 28%. In addition, we found that the total injected radiotracer dosage for adult patients are mostly affected when considering patient weight rather than patient age.

Optical characterization and thermal aging tests are performed on a sputter-deposited coating, consisting of SiO₂/Cr₂O₃/Cr/Cr₂O₃ layers, designed and developed as a selective solar absorber to be used for unconcentrated solar thermal applications. Both measurements are performed by using a home-made apparatus, which mimics a flat plate collector under high vacuum. A Performance Criterion (PC_η(T)), based on absorber efficiency is proposed, and a forecast of service lifetime is obtained. As a result of the thermal aging tests, the selective solar absorber under study appears to be highly efficient at mid temperatures (up to 573 K) and thermally stable at temperatures (up to 690 K).

Electricity demand prediction is vital for energy production management and proper exploitation of the present resources. Recently, several novel machine learning (ML) models have been employed for electricity demand prediction to estimate the future prospects of the energy requirements. The main objective of this study is to review the various ML models applied for electricity demand prediction. Through a novel search and taxonomy, the most relevant original research articles in the field are identified and further classified according to the ML modeling technique, perdition type, and the application area. A comprehensive review of the literature identifies the major ML models, their applications and a discussion on the evaluation of their performance. This paper further makes a discussion on the trend and the performance of the ML models. As the result, this research reports an outstanding rise in the accuracy, robustness, precision and the generalization ability of the prediction models using the hybrid and ensemble ML algorithms.

Crop digital twin is redefining traditional farming practices, offering unprecedented opportunities for real-time monitoring, predictive and simulation analysis, and optimization. This research embarks on an exploration of the synergy between precision agriculture, crop modeling, and regression algorithms to create a digital twin for augmenting farmers the concentration and composition prediction-based crop nutrient recovery. This captures the holistic representation of crop characteristics, considering the intricate relationships between environmental factors, nutrient concentrations, and crop compositions. However, the complexity arising from diverse soil and environmental conditions makes nutrient content analysis expensive and time-consuming. This paper presents the result of a predictive digital twin case study that employs six regression algorithms namely Elastic Net, Polynomial, Stepwise, Ridge, Lasso, and Linear Regression to predict rice nutrient content efficiently, particularly considering the coexistence and composition of multiple nutrients. Our research findings highlight the superiority of the Polynomial Regression model in predicting nutrient content, with a specific focus on accurate nitrogen percentage prediction. This insight can be used for nutrient recovery intervention by knowing the precise amount of nutrient to be added into the crop medium. The adoption of the Polynomial Regression model offers a valuable tool for nutrient management practices in the crop digital twin, potentially resulting in higher-quality rice production and a reduced environmental impact. The proposed method can be replicable in other low-resourced crop digital twin system.

The passenger prediction flow is very significant to transportation sustainability. This is due to some chaos of traffic jams encountered by the road users during their movement to the offices, schools, or markets at earlier of the days and during closing periods. This problem is peculiar to the transportation system of the Federal University of Technology Minna, Nigeria. However, the prevailing technique of passenger flow estimation is non-parametric which depends on the fixed planning and is easily affected by noise. In this research, we proposed the development of a hybrid intelligent passenger frequency prediction model using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) linear model, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), and Kalman Filter Algorithm (KFA). The passengers’ frequency of arrival at the bus terminals is obtained and enumerated through the closed-circuit television (CCTV) and demonstrated using the Markovian Queueing Systems Model (MQSM). The ARIMA model was used for learning and prediction and compared the result with the combined techniques of using CNN-KFA. The autocorrelation coefficient functions (ACF) and partial autocorrelation coefficient functions (PACF) are used to examine the stationary data with different features. The performance of the models was analyzed and evaluated in describing the short-term passenger flow frequency at each terminal using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Mean Squared Error (MSE) values. The CNN-Kalman-filter model was fitted into the short-term series and the MAPE values are below 10%. The Mean Square Error (MSE) shows that the CNN-Kalman Filter model has the overall best performance with 83.33% of the time better than the ARIMA model and provides high accuracy in forecasting.

Abstract: In recent years, the construction engineering sector has undergone a transformative shift towards the integration of machine learning (ML) techniques, particularly in predicting the properties of steel fiber-reinforced concrete (SFRC). Despite the theoretical sophistication of existing models, a persistent challenge remains – their opacity, lacking transparency and real-world relevance for practi-tioners. To address this gap and advance our current understanding, this study employs the extra gradient (XG) Boosting algorithm, crafting a comprehensive ap-proach. Grounded in a meticulously curated database drawn from 43 seminal pub-lications, encompassing 420 distinct records, this research focuses predominantly on three primary fiber types: crimped, hooked, and mil-cut. Complemented by hands-on experimentation involving 20 diverse SFRC mixtures, this empirical campaign is further illuminated through the strategic use of Partial Dependence Plots (PDPs), revealing intricate relationships between input parameters and con-sequent compressive strength. A pivotal revelation of this research lies in the identification of optimal SFRC formulations, offering tangible insights for real-world applications. The developed ML model stands out not only for its sophistication but also its tangible accuracy, evidenced by exemplary performance against inde-pendent datasets, boasting a commendable mean target-prediction ratio of 99%. To bridge the theory-practice gap, we introduce a user-friendly digital interface, thri-ughly designed to guide professionals in optimizing and accurately predicting the compressive strength of SFRC. This research thus contributes to the construction and civil engineering sectors by enhancing predictive capabilities and refining mix designs, fostering innovation, and addressing the evolving needs of the industry.

The deformation monitoring information of concrete dams contains some high-frequency com-ponents, and the high-frequency components are strongly nonlinear, which reduces the accuracy of dam deformation prediction. In order to solve such problems, this paper proposes a concrete dam deformation monitoring model based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) combined with wavelet threshold noise reduction and sparrow search algorithm (SSA) optimization of long short-term memory network (LSTM). The model uses EMD combined with wavelet threshold to decompose and denoise the measured deformation data. On this basis, the LSTM model based on SSA optimization is used to mine the nonlinear function relationship between the reconstructed monitoring data and various influencing factors. The example analysis shows that the model has good calculation speed, fitting and prediction accuracy and it can effectively mine the date char-acteristics inherent in the measured deformation, and reduce the influence of noise components on the modeling accuracy.

Our paper deals with an advanced statistical tool for the volatility prediction problem in financial (crypto) markets. Firstly, we consider the conventional GARCH involved volatility models. We next extend the corresponding GARCH based forecasting and calculate a specific probability associated with the predicted volatility levels. Since the probability evaluation is based on a stochastic model, we next develop an additional data-driven estimation of this probability. The proposed advanced statistical estimation uses real (historical) market data. The obtained theoretic results for the statistical probability of levels are also discussed in the framework of the integrated volatility concept. A possible application of the established probability estimation to the volatility clustering problem is also mentioned. Our paper includes a concrete practical implementation of the resulting (combined) volatility prediction tool and considers a novel module for trading and volatility estimation in crypto markets recently developed by 1ex Trading Board group in collaboration with the GoldenGate Venture. Moreover, we discuss shortly a possible using of the proposed model based and data-driven volatility prediction methodology in the financial risk management.

Diabetics or Diabetic Mellitus is a metabolic disorder of blood sugar levels in the human body. It is a major non-communicable disease and involved many serious health risk issues. This disease is rapidly increasing in India. It is a chronic condition and it occurs when a body doesn't produce enough insulin hormone to control the blood sugar level. In this study, different variables have been analyzed that cause the diabetics, and different machine learning algorithms are used to predict whether an unknown sample is diabetes or not. For this purpose, PIMA diabetic detection for Female patients was used. Here 10 different classification model is used for prediction. Finally, the detailed performance analysis of the different variables of the PIMA dataset and also the classification model are discussed.

Incident solar radiation (insolation) passing through the forest canopy to the ground surface is either absorbed or scattered. This phenomenon, known as radiation attenuation, is measured using the extinction coefficient (K). The amount of radiation at the ground surface of a given site is effectively controlled by the canopy’s surface and structure, determining its suitability for plant species.Menhinick’s and Simpson biodiversity indexes were selected as spatially explicit response variables for the regression equation using canopy structure metrics as predictors. Independent variables include modeled area solar radiation, LiDAR derived canopy height, effective leaf area index data derived from multi-spectral imagery, and canopy strata metrics derived from LiDAR point-cloud data. The results support the hypothesis that, 1.) canopy surface and strata variability may be associated with understory species diversity due to habitat partitioning and radiation attenuation, and that, 2.) such a model can predict both this relationship and biodiversity clustering.The study data yielded significant correlations between predictor and response variables and was used to produce a multiple-linear model comprising canopy relief, texture of heights, and vegetation density to predict understory plant diversity. When analyzed for spatial autocorrelation, the predicted biodiversity data exhibited non-random spatial continuity.

In the context of artificial intelligence's pervasive integration across sectors, the rigorous examination of methodologies used in constructing mathematical models is imperative. This study delves into facial recognition models, particularly in their ability to extract features such as age. We address the prevalent practice of training models with unbalanced datasets and its implications for model performance and bias introduction. Utilizing 27,305 facial images, we investigate the influence of dataset imbalance on age prediction based on ethnicity. Employing preprocessing and oversampling techniques, we equalize sample sizes across ethnicities. A Convolutional Neural Network trained on the balanced dataset serves as our baseline, while three additional models undergo training with a 50% sample size reduction for each group to assess accuracy degradation. Our findings reveal a notable decline in accuracy for ethnic groups with reduced representation. The Asian group experiences a 67.94% accuracy deterioration, followed by a 51.60% drop for the Black group, and a 38.46% decline for the White group. These results underscore the sensitivity of certain ethnic groups to underrepresentation, highlighting the nuanced impact on age prediction accuracy. While a 50% reduction in representation does not uniformly result in a 50% accuracy decline, it unquestionably influences predictive accuracy for affected groups.

Background: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) often suffer from acute exacerbations. Our objective was to describe recurrent exacerbations in a GP based Swiss COPD cohort, and develop a statistical model for predicting exacerbation. Methods: In a questionnaire-based COPD cohort, demographic and medical data were recorded for 24 months. Data set was split into training (75%) and validation (25%) datasets. A negative binomial regression model was developed using the training dataset to predict the exacerbation rate within 1 year. An exacerbation prediction model was developed, and the overall performance was validated. A nomogram was created to facilitate the clinical use of the model. Results: Of the 229 COPD patients analyzed, 77% of patients had no exacerbation during the follow-up. The best subset in the training dataset found that lower forced expiratory volume, high scores on the MRC dyspnoea scale, exacerbation history, being on combination therapy of LABA+ICS or LAMA+LABA at baseline were associated with a higher rate of exacerbation. When validated, the area-under-curve (AUC) was 0.75 for one or more exacerbations. Calibration was accurate (predicted 0.34 exacerbations vs observed 0.28 exacerbations). Conclusion: Nomograms built from these models can assist clinicians in the decision-making process of their COPD care.

With the rise of the Internet of Things (IOT), mobile devices and Location-Based Social Network (LBSN), an abundant amount of trajectory data has made research on location prediction more popular. The check-in data shared through LBSN hides information related to life patterns, obtaining this information is helpful for location prediction. However, the trajectory data recorded by mobile devices is different from check-in data that has semantic information. In order to obtain the user’s semantic, relevant studies match the stay point to the nearest Point of Interest (POI), but location error may lead to wrong semantic matching. Therefore, we propose A Self-Attention for Next Location Prediction based on Semantic Mining to predict the next location. When calculating the semantic feature of a stay point, the first step is to search for the k nearest POI, then use the reciprocal of the distance from the stay point to the k nearest POI and the number of categories as weights. Finally, we use the probability to express semantic without losing other important semantic information. Furthermore, this research combined with sequential pattern mining can bring richer semantic features. In order to better perceive the trajectory, temporal features learn periodicity of time series by sine function. In terms of location features, we build a directed weighted graph and regard the frequency of users visiting locations as the weight, so the location features are rich in contextual information. We then adopt the Self-Attention model to capture long-term dependencies in long trajectory sequences. Experiments in Geolife show that the semantic matching of this study improved by 45.78% in TOP@1 compared with the closest distance search for POI. Compared with the baseline, the model proposed in this study improved by 2.5% in TOP@1.

In the Versatile Video Coding (VVC) standard, affine motion models have been applied to enhance the resolution of complex motion patterns. However, due to the high computational complexity involved in affine motion estimation, real-time video processing applications face significant challenges. This paper focuses on optimizing affine motion estimation algorithms in the VVC environment and proposes a fast gradient iterative algorithm based on edge detection for efficient computation. Firstly, we establish judging conditions during the construction of affine motion candidate lists to streamline the redundant judging process. Secondly, we employ the Canny edge detection method for gradient assessment in the affine motion estimation process, thereby enhancing the iteration speed of affine motion vectors. Experimental results demonstrate that our affine motion estimation algorithm reduces encoding time by approximately 15%-35% while maintaining video bitrate and quality.

Prediction markets are heralded as powerful forecasting tools, but models to describe them often fail to capture the full complexity of the underlying mechanisms that drive price dynamics. To address this issue, we propose a model in which agents belong in a social network, have an opinion about the probability of a particular event to occur, and bet on the prediction market accordingly. Agents update their opinions about the event by interacting with their neighbours in the network, following the Deffuant model of opinion dynamics. Our results suggest that a simple market model that takes into account opinion formation dynamics is capable to replicate the empirical properties of historical prediction market time series, including volatility clustering and fat-tailed distribution of returns. Interestingly, the best results are obtained when there is the right level of variance in the opinions of the agents. Moreover, this paper provides a new way to indirectly validate opinion dynamics models against real data by using historical data obtained from PredictIt, an exchange platform whose data has never been used before to validate models of opinion diffusion.

This research investigates the potential benefits of integrating machine learning algorithms and IoT sensors in modern agriculture. The focus is on optimizing crop production and reducing waste through informed decisions about planting, watering, and harvesting crops. The paper discusses the current state of machine learning and IoT in agriculture, highlighting key challenges and opportunities. It also presents experimental results that demonstrate the impact of changing labels on the accuracy of data analysis algorithms. The findings recommend that by analyzing wide-ranging data collected from farms, including real-time data from IoT sensors, farmers can make more informed verdicts about factors that affect crop growth. Eventually, the integration of these technologies can transform modern agriculture by increasing crop yields while minimizing waste. In our studies, we achieve a classification accuracy of 99.59% using the Bayes Net algorithm and 99. 46% using Naïve Bayes Classifier, and Hoeffding Tree algorithms. Our results indicate that we achieved high accuracy results in our experiments in order to increase crop growth.

: Border management serves as a crucial control checkpoint for governments to regulate the quality and safety of imported food. In 2020, the ensemble learning prediction model EL V.1 was introduced to Taiwan's border food management. This model primarily assesses the risk of imported food by combining five algorithms to determine whether quality sampling should be performed on imported food at the border. In this study, a second-generation ensemble learning prediction model, EL V.2, was developed based on seven algorithms to enhance the "detection rate of unqualified cases" and improve the robustness of the model. The chi-square test was employed to compare the efficacy of "pre-launch (2019) random sampling inspection" and "post-launch (2020–2022) model prediction sampling inspection". For cases recommended for inspection by the ensemble learning model and subsequently inspected, the unqualified rates were 5.10%, 6.36%, and 4.39% in 2020, 2021, and 2022, respectively, which were significantly higher (p=0.000***) compared with the random sampling rate of 2.09% in 2019. The prediction indices established by the confusion matrix were used to further evaluate the prediction effects of EL V.1 and EL V.2, and the EL V.2 model exhibited superior predictive performance compared with EL V.1, and both models outperformed random sampling.

Version Control and Source Code Management Systems, such as GitHub, contain large amount ofunstructured historical information of software projects. Recent studies have introduced Natural Language Processing (NLP) to help software engineers retrieve information from very large collection of unstructured data. In this study, we have extended our previous study by increasing our datasets and ML and clustering techniques. Method: We have followed a complex methodology made up of various steps. Starting from the raw commit messages we have employed NLP techniques to build a structured database. We have extracted their main features and used as input of different clustering algorithms. Once labelled each entry, we have applied supervised machine learning techniques to build a prediction and classification model. Results: We have developed a machine learning-based model to automatically classify commit messages of a software project. Our model exploits a ground-truth dataset which includes commit messages obtained from various GitHub projects belonging to the HEP context. Conclusions: The contribution of this paper is two-fold: it proposes a ground-truth database; it provides a machine learning prediction model. They automatically identify the more change-proneness areas of code. Our model has obtained a very high average precision, recall and F1-score.

The glucose-insulin regulatory system and its glucose oscillations is a recurring theme in the literature because of its impact on human lives, mostly the ones affected by diabetes mellitus. Several approaches were proposed, from mathematical to data-based models, with the aim of modeling the glucose oscillation curve. Having such a curve, it is possible to predict, when injecting insulin in type 1 diabetes (T1D) individuals. However, the literature presents prediction horizons no longer than 6 hours, which could be a problem considering their sleeping time. This work presents Tesseratus, a model that adopts a multi-agent approach to combine machine learning and mathematical modeling to predict the glucose oscillation up to 8 hours. Tesseratus uses the pharmacokinetics of insulins and data collected from T1D individuals. Its outcome can support endocrinologists while prescripting daily treatment for T1D individuals, and provide personalized recommendations for such individuals, to keep their glucose concentration in the ideal range. Tesseratus brings pioneering results for prediction horizons of 8 hours for nighttime, in an experiment with seven real T1D individuals. It is our claim that Tesseratus will be a reference for classification of glucose prediction model, supporting the mitigation of short- and long-term complications in the T1D individuals.

This paper describes the successful application of the Transformer model used in the natural language processing and vision tasks as a means of processing the time series of signals from gyroscope and accelerometer sensors for the classification of human activities. The Transformer model is based on deep neural networks with many layers which can generalize well on signals. All measured signals come from a smartphone placed in a waist bag. Activity prediction is sequence-to-sequence, each time step of the signal is assigned a designation of the performed activity. Emphasis is placed on attention mechanisms, which express individual dependencies between signal values within a time series. In comparison with another recent result, the recognition precision was improved from 89.67 percent to 99.2 percent. The transformer model should in the future be included among the top options in machine learning methods for human activity recognition.

Glioblastoma (GBM) is a very aggressive malignant brain tumor with the vast majority of patients surviving less than 12 months (Short-term survivors [STS]). Only around 2% of patients survive more than 36 months (Long-term survivors [LTS]). Studying these extreme survival groups might help in better understanding GBM biology. This work aims at exploring application of machine learning methods in predicting survival groups(STS, LTS). We used age and gene expression profiles belonging to 249 samples from publicly available datasets. 10 Machine learning methods have been implemented and compared for their performances. Hyperparameter tuned random forest model performed best with accuracy of 80% (AUC of 74% and F1_score of 85%). The performance of this model is validated on external test data of 16 samples. The model predicted the true survival group for 15 samples achieving an accuracy of 93.75%. This classification model is deployed as a web tool GlioSurvML. The top 1500 features which retained classification efficiency (Accuracy of 80%, AUC of 74%) were studied for enriched pathways and disease-causal biomarker associations using the HumanPSD^TM database. We identified 199 genes as possible biomarkers of GBM and/or similar diseases (like Glioma, astrocytoma, and others). 57 of these genes are shown to be differentially expressed across survival groups and/or have impact on survival. This work demonstrates the application of machine learning methods in predicting survival groups of GBM.

Smart city infrastructure has a significant impact on improving the quality of humans life. However, a substantial increase in the urban population from the last few years is posing challenges related to resource management, safety, and security. In order to ensure safe mobility and security in the smart city environment, this paper proposes a novel Artificial Intelligence (AI) based approach empowering the authorities to better visualize the threats and to help them identify the highly-reported crime zones yielding greater predictability of crime hot-spots in a smart city. To this end, it first investigates the Hierarchical Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (HDBSCAN) to detect the hot-spots that have a higher risk of crimes to be committed. Second, for crime prediction, Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) exploited in each dense crime region to predict the number of crimes in the future with spatial and temporal information. The proposed HDBSCAN and SARIMA based crime prediction model is evaluated on ten years of crime data (2008-2017) for New York City (NYC). The accuracy of the model is measured by considering different time period scenarios i.e. (a) year-wise, i.e., for each year and (b) for the whole period of ten years, using an 80:20 ratio where 80\% data was used for training and 20\% data was used for testing. The proposed approach outperforms with an average Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 11.47.

Learning systems have been very focused on creating models that are capable of obtaining the best results in error metrics. Recently, the focus has shifted to improvement in order to interpret and explain their results. The need for interpretation is greater when these models are used to support decision making. In some areas this becomes an indispensable requirement, such as in medicine. This paper focuses on the prediction of cardiovascular disease by analyzing the well-known Statlog (Heart) Data Set from the UCI’s Automated Learning Repository. This study will analyze the cost of making predictions easier to interpret by reducing the number of features that explain the classification of health status versus the cost in accuracy. It will be analyzed on a large set of classification techniques and performance metrics. Demonstrating that it is possible to make explainable and reliable models that have a good commitment to predictive performance.

This paper is an attempt to present a COVID-19 prediction model for India. Lockdown plays an important role in the arrest of community spread of the disease. This was evident from the study of other countries such as Russia, Belgium and Germany, where peak cases were recorded within a month of the imposition of lockdown, that it showed an immediate positive effect. However, in India, even after 65 days of lockdown, there is no decrease in the number of daily new cases reported. There were many models prepared for India and almost all of them were proven wrong by the increase in the number of cases. The model in this paper is prepared using the COVID-19 trend in other countries, population density and the pandemic bell curve. Based on the available data until 24^th May 2020, two scenarios have been presented. In one, the peak shall be obtained when the number of daily new cases per million reaches 190 and in the second when the daily new cases per million reach 724. One model predicts the number of cases to reach 1 million by mid-July 2020. The other model predicts the number of cases to peak by mid-July with the total cases reaching 20 million. The predicted cases were compared with the actual cases recorded for the period 25^th May to 11^th June 2020. It was observed that the actual values matched quite reasonably with the predicted values.

SARS-CoV-2 has been the talk of the town ever since the beginning of 2020. The pandemic has brought the complete world on a halt. Every country is trying all possible steps to combat the disease ranging from shutting the complete economy of the country to repurposing of drugs and vaccine development. The rapid data analysis and widespread tools, software and databases have made bioinformatics capable of giving new insights to the researchers to deal with the current scenario more efficiently. Vaccinomics, the new emerging field of bioinformatics uses concepts of immunogenetics and immunogenomics with in silico tools to give promising results for wet lab experiments. This approach is highly validated for the designing and development of potent vaccines. The present in-silico study was attempted to identify peptide fragments from spike surface glycoprotein that can be efficiently used for the designing and development of epitope-based vaccine designing approach. Both B-cell and T-cell epitopes are predicted using integrated computational tools. VaxiJen server was used for prediction of protective antigenicity of the protein. NetCTL was studied for analyzing most potent T cell epitopes and its subsequent MHC-I interaction through tools provided by IEDB. 3D structure prediction of peptides and MHC-I alleles (HLA-C*03:03) was further done to carry out docking studies using AutoDock4.0. Various tools from IEDB were used to predict B-cell epitopes on the basis of different essential parameters like surface accessibility, beta turns and many more. Based on results interpretation, the peptide sequence from 1138-1145 amino acid and sequence WTAGAAAYY and YDPLQPEL were obtained as a potential B-cell epitope and T-cell epitope respectively. This in-silico study will help us to identify novel epitope-based peptide vaccine target in spike protein of SARS-CoV-2. Further, in-vitro and in-vivo study needed to validate the findings.

A combination of physical-chemical analysis has been used to monitor the aging of red wines from D.O. Toro (Spain). The changes in the chemical composition of wines that occur along aging time can be permitted to discriminate wine samples collected after one, four, seven and ten months of aging. Different computational models were used to develop a good authenticity tool to certificate wines. In this research different models have developed: Artificial Neural Network models (ANNs), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Random Forest (RF) models. The results obtained for the ANN model developed with sigmoidal function in the output neuron and the RF model permit to determine the aging time, with an average absolute percentage deviation below 1% and it can conclude that these two models have demonstrated its capacity as a valid tool to predict the wine age.

The assessment and prediction of drought risk under future climate change and land use land cover (LULC) scenarios is critically important for drought prevention and mitigation, as it enables a clearer understanding of potential shifts in drought patterns. The primary aim of this study is to evaluate sub-seasonal and seasonal meteorological and hydrological drought hazards across the Yellow River Basin (YRB) under projected future climate conditions and LULC patterns. The BCC-CSM1-1 climate model projections from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset are utilized to represent future climate for 2025-2060 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The CA-Markov model is employed to predict future LULC distributions. Meteorological and hydrological drought risks across different YRB zones are evaluated through a copula-based risk assessment approach, based on the joint probability distribution of drought duration and severity. The results indicate that sub-seasonal meteorological and hydrological droughts will likely be the primary concern moving forward. Specifically, the upper YRB (zones A, B, C) exhibits greater vulnerability to sub-seasonal meteorological drought, while the Loess Plateau (zones C, E) shows higher susceptibility to sub-seasonal hydrological drought. Moreover, zone F in the downstream region may experience increased seasonal hydrological drought risk due to projected urban expansion in the middle and lower portions of the YRB.

Kaposi’s sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV) is the etiologic agent of Kaposi’s sarcoma, primary effusion lymphoma (PEL) and multicentric Castleman’s disease. During KSHV lytic infection, lytic-related genes, categorized as immediate-early, early, and late genes, are expressed in a temporal manner. The transcription of late genes requires the virus-specific pre-initiation complex (vPIC), which consists of viral transcription factors. However, the characterization of the protein-protein interactions of the vPIC factors has not been completely elucidated. KSHV ORF18 is one of the vPIC factors, and its interaction with other viral factors has not been sufficiently revealed. Here, we analyzed the interaction between ORF18 and another vPIC factor, ORF30, in living cells using the bimolecular fluorescence complementation (BiFC) assay. We identified four amino-acid residues (Leu29, Gln36, His41 and Trp170) on ORF18 that were responsible for its interaction with ORF30. The artificial intelligence (AI) system AlphaFold2 predicted that identified four residues are exposed to the surface of ORF18 and located in proximity to each other in the surface of ORF18. Thus, AI-predicted model supports the importance of four residues for binding of ORF18 to ORF30. Our results indicated that wet experiments in combination with AI may enhance the structural characterization of vPIC protein-protein interactions.

The growth rate in academic and scientific publications increased very fast. Researchers must choose a good representative and significant literature in publications, which has become challenging worldwide. Usually, the paper citation number indicates this paper's potential influence and importance. However, this standard metric of citation numbers cannot be used as a measurement to judge the popularity and significance of the recently published papers. To address this challenge, this paper presents an effective prediction method called FutureCite to predict the future citation level of research articles. FutureCite combines machine learning with text and graph mining techniques, leveraging their abilities in classification, datasets in-depth analysis, and feature extraction. FutureCite aims to predict future citation levels of research articles applying a multilabel classification approach. FutureCite can extract significant semantic features and capture the interconnection relationships found in scientific articles during feature extraction using textual content, citation networks, and metadata as feature resources. Our goal is to contribute to the advancement of substantial effective approaches impacting the citation counts in scientific publications by enhancing the precision of future citations. We conducted several experiments using a comprehensive publication dataset to evaluate our method and determine the impact of using a variety of machine learning algorithms. FutureCite demonstrated its robustness and efficiency and showed promising results based on different evaluation metrics. Using the FutureCite model has significant implications in improving the researchers' ability to determine targeted literature for their research and better understand the potential impact of research publications.

Accurate and timely rainfall prediction enhances productivity and can aid proper planning in sectors such as agriculture, health, transport and water resources. This study is aimed at improving rainfall prediction using ensemble methods. It first assesses the performance of six convective schemes (Kain–Fritsch (KF); Betts–Miller–Janji´c (BMJ); Grell–Fretas (GF); Grell 3D ensemble (G3); New–Tiedke (NT) and Grell–Devenyi (GD)) using the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean error (ME) focusing on the March–May 2013 rainfall period over Uganda. 18 ensemble members are generated from the three best performing convective schemes (i.e. KF, GF & G3). The performance of three ensemble methods (i.e. ensemble mean (EM); ensemble mean analogue (EMA) and multi–member analogue ensemble (MAEM)) is also analyzed using the RMSE and ME. The EM presented a smaller RMSE compared to individual schemes (EM:10.02; KF:23.96; BMJ:26.04; GF:25.85; G3:24.07; NT:29.13 & GD:26.27) and a better bias (EM:-1.28; KF:-1.62; BMJ:-4.04; GF:-3.90; G3:-3.62; NT:-5.41 & GD:-4.07). The EMA and MAEM presented 13 out of 21 stations & 17 out of 21 stations respectively with smaller RMSE compared to EM thus demonstrating additional improvement in predictive performance. The MAEM is a new approach proposed and described in the study.

Genomic selection (GS) can accelerate variety improvement when training set (TS) size, and its relationship with the breeding set (BS) are optimized for prediction accuracies (PA) of genomic prediction (GP) models. Sixteen GP algorithms were run on phenotypic best linear unbiased predictors (BLUPs) and estimators (BLUEs) of resistance to both fall armyworm (FAW) and maize weevil (MW) in a tropical maize panel. For MW resistance, 37% of the panel was the TS, and BS was the remainder whilst for FAW, random-based training sets (RBTS) and pedigree-based training sets (PBTS) were designed. PAs achieved with BLUPs varied from 0.66 to 0.82 for MW resistance traits, and, for FAW resistance, 0.694 to 0.714 for RBTS of 37%, and 0.843 to 0.844 for RBTS of 85%, and, these were at least two-fold those from BLUEs. For PBTS, FAW resistance PAs were generally higher than those for RBTS, except for one dataset. GP models generally showed similar PAs across individual traits whilst the TS designation was determinant since a positive correlation (R=0.92***) between TS size and PAs was observed for RBTS and, for the PBTS, it was negative (R=0.44**). This study pioneers the use of GS for maize resistance to insect pests in sub-Saharan Africa.

Accurate and stable cost forecasting of substation projects is of great significance to ensure the economic construction and sustainable operation of power engineering projects. In this paper, a forecasting model based on the improved least squares support vector machine (ILSSVM) optimized by wolf pack algorithm(WPA) is proposed to improve the accuracy and stability of the cost forecasting of substation projects. Firstly, the optimal features are selected through the data inconsistency rate (DIR), which helps reduce redundant input vectors. Secondly, the wolf pack algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of the improved least square support vector machine. Lastly, the cost forecasting method of WPA-DIR-ILSSVM is established. In this paper, 88 substation projects in different regions from 2015 to 2017 are chosen to conduct the training tests to verify the validity of the model. The results indicate that the new hybrid WPA-DIR-ILSSVM model presents better accuracy, robustness and generality in cost forecasting of substation projects.

Oral and parenteral delivery of first-line anticonvulsant Valproic cid (VA) are associated with serious adverse effects, high hepatic metabolism, high clearance, and low bioavailability in brain. GastroPlus program was used to predict in vivo performance of immediate (IR) and sustained release (SR) products in human. HSPiP software predicted excipients with maximum possible miscibility of the drug. Based on GastroPlus and HSPiP program, various excipients were screened for experimental solubility study and prepared cationic nanoemulsions and respective gels for nasal to brain delivery. These were characterised for size, size distribution, polydispersity index, zeta potential, morphology, pH, % transmittance, drug content, and viscosity. In vitro drug release, ex vivo permeation profile (goat nasal mucosa), and penetration studies were conducted. Result showed that in-vivo oral drug dissolution and absorption were predicted as 98.6 mg and 18.8 mg, respectively from both tablets (IR and SR) at 8 h using GastroPlus. The drug access to the portal vein was relatively predicted high in IR (115 mg) as compared to SR (82.6 mg). Plasma drug concentration-time profile predicted was in good agreement with published reports. The program predicted duodenum and jejunum as the prime site of drug absorption and no effect of nanonization on Tmax for sustained release formulation. Hansen parameters suggested suitable selection of excipients. The program recommended for nasal to brain delivery of the drug using cationic mucoadhesive product. The optimized stable CVE6 was associated with optimal size (113 nm), low PDI (0.26), high zeta potential (+34.7 mV), high transmittance (97.8%), and high strength (0.7 %w/w). In vitro release and ex vivo permeation of CVE6 were found to be substantially high as compared to anionic AVE6 and respective gels. Penetration study executed high fluorescence intensity with CVE6 and CVE6-gel as compared to suspension and ANE6 which may be attributed to electrostatic interaction between mucosal membrane and nanoglobules. Thus, cationic nanoemulsion and respective mucoadhesive gel are promising strategy for delivery of VA to brain through intransal administration for the treatment of seizure and convulsion.

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) breeding programs can take over a decade to release a new variety. However, new methods of selection such as genomic selection (GS) must be integrated to decrease the time it takes to release new varieties to meet the demand of a growing population. The implementation of GS into breeding programs is still being explored, with many studies showing its potential to change wheat breeding through achieving higher genetic gain. In this review, we explore the integration of GS for a wheat breeding program by redesigning the traditional breeding pipeline to implement GS. We propose implementing a two-part breeding strategy by differentiating between population improvement and product development. The implementation of GS in the product development pipeline can be integrated into most stages and can predict within and across breeding cycles. Additionally, we explore optimizing the population improvement strategy through GS recurrent selection schemes to reduce crossing cycle time and significantly increase genetic gain. The recurrent selection schemes can be optimized for parental selection, maintenance of genetic variation, and optimal cross-prediction. Overall, we outline the ability to increase the genetic gain of a breeding program by implementing GS and a two-part breeding strategy.

In the present paper, an aerodynamic investigation of a high-speed train is performed. In the first section of this article, a generic high-speed train against a turbulent flow is simulated, numerically. The Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations combined with the SST turbulence model are applied to solve incompressible turbulent flow around a high-speed train. Flow structure, velocity and pressure contours and streamlines at some typical wind directions are the most important results of this simulation. The maximum and minimum values are specified and discussed. Also, the pressure coefficient for some critical points on the train surface is evaluated. In the following, the wind direction influence the aerodynamic key parameters as drag, lift, and side forces at the mentioned wind directions are analyzed and compared. Moreover, the effects of velocity changes (50, 60, 70, 80 and 90 m/s) are estimated and compared on the above flow and aerodynamic parameters. In the second section of the paper, various data-driven methods including Gene Expression Programming (GEP), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), and random forest (RF), are applied for predicting output parameters. So, drag, lift and side forces and also minimum and a maximum of pressure coefficients for mentioned wind directions and velocity are predicted and compared using statistical parameters. Obtained results indicated that RF in all coefficients of wind direction and most coefficients of free stream velocity provided the most accurate predictions. As a conclusion, RF may be recommended for the prediction of aerodynamic coefficients.

Early stroke diagnosis remains a big challenge in healthcare partly due to the lack of reliable diagnostic blood biomarkers, which in turn leads to increased rates of mortality and disability. Current screening methods are optimised to identify patients with a high risk of cardio-vascular disease, especially among the elderly. However, in young adults and children, these methods suffer low sensitivity and specificity and contribute to further delays in their triage and diagnosis. Accordingly, there is an urgent need to develop reliable blood biomarkers for triaging patients suspected of stroke in all age groups, especially children and young adults. This review explores some of the existing blood biomarkers, as single biomarkers, or biomarker panels, and examine their sensitivity and specificity for predicting stroke. A review was performed on PubMed and Web of Science for journal articles published in English during the period 2001 to 2021 which contained information regarding biomarkers of stroke. In this review article, we provide comparative information on the availability, clinical usefulness, and time-window periods of eight single blood biomarkers and six biomarker panels that have been used for predicting stroke in emergency situations. The outcomes of this review can be used in future research for developing more effective stroke biomarkers.

We describe a novel system for online prediction of lead seizures from long-term intracranial electroencephalogram (iEEG) recordings for canines with naturally occurring epilepsy. This study adopts new specification of lead seizures, reflecting strong clustering of seizures in observed data. This clustering results in fewer lead seizures (~7 lead seizures per dog), and hence new challenges for online seizure prediction, that are addressed in the proposed system. In particular, machine learning part of the system is implemented using the Group Learning method suitable for modeling sparse and noisy seizure data. In addition, several modifications for the proposed system are introduced to cope with non-stationarity of noisy iEEG signal. They include: (1) periodic re-training of SVM classifier using most recent training data; (2) removing samples with noisy labels from training data; (3) introducing new adaptive post-processing technique for combining many predictions made for 20-second windows into a single prediction for 4 hr segment. Application of the proposed system requires only 2 lead seizures for training the initial model, and results in high prediction performance for all four dogs (with mean 0.84 sensitivity, 0.27 time-in-warning, and 0.78 false-positive rate per day). Proposed system achieves accurate prediction of lead seizures during long-term test periods, 3–16 lead seizures during 169–364 days test period, whereas earlier studies did not differentiate between lead vs. non-lead seizures and used much shorter test periods (~few days long).

In the current study, the failure behavior of retrofitted steel structures was studied experimentally and theoretically with steel/CFRP double strap joints (DSJs) under quasi-static tensile loading. A series of DSJs with different bonding lengths are also considered and examined to experimentally assess the effective bond length. To predict the failure load values of the tested specimens, a new stress-based criterion, namely the point stress (PS) criterion is proposed. Although some theoretical predictive modelling for the strength between steel/CFRP joints under various loading conditions has been presented, in this work by using the new proposed approach, one can calculate rapidly and conveniently the failure loads of the steel/CFRP specimens. Furthermore, to assess the validity of the new proposed criterion, further experimental data on steel/CFRP DSJs available in the open literature are predicted using the PS criterion. Finally, it was found that a good agreement exists between the experimental results and the theoretical predictions based on the PS criterion.

This work presents a heat transfer and boiling model that computes the evolution of the temperature field in a representative steel workpiece quenched from 850 or 930°C by immersion in water flowing at average velocities of 0.2 or 0.6 m/s, respectively. Under these conditions, all three boiling regimes were present during cooling: stable vapor film, nucleate boiling, and single-phase convection. The model was based on the numerical solution of the heat conduction equation coupled to the solution of the energy and momentum equations for water. The mixture phase approach was adopted using the Lee model to compute the rates of water evaporation-condensation. Heat flux at the wall was calculated for all regimes using a single semi-mechanistic model. Therefore, evolution of boiling regimes at every position on the wall surface was automatically determined. Predictions were validated using laboratory results, namely: a) Videorecording the upward motion of the wetting front along the workpiece wall surface, and b) cooling curves obtained with embedded thermocouples in the steel probe. Wall heat flux calculations were used to determine the importance of the simultaneous presence of all three boiling regimes on the heat flux distribution. It was found that this simultaneous presence leads to high heat flux variations that should be avoided in production lines.

Water resource is considered as a significant factor in development of regional environment and society. Water consumption prediction can provide important decision basis for the regional water supply scheduling optimisations. According to the periodicity and randomness nature of the daily water consumption data, a Markov modified autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) model is proposed in this study. The proposed model, combined with the Markov chain, can correct the prediction error, reduce the continuous superposition of prediction error, and improve the prediction accuracy of future daily water consumption data. The daily water consumption data of different monitoring points are used to verify the effectiveness of the model, and the future water consumption is predicted, in the study area. The results show that the proposed algorithm can effectively reduce the prediction error compared to the ARIMA.

In this study, we developed a model that can predict whether patients with cerebral arteriovenous malformation (AVM) will be cured 36 months after intervention by means of stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS), and identified the most important predictors that explain the probability of being cured. A machine learning (ML) approach was applied using decision tree (DT) and logistic regression (LR) techniques on historical data (sociodemographic, clinical, treatment, angioarchitecture, and radiosurgery procedure) of 202 patients with AVM who underwent SRS at the Instituto de Radiocirugía del Perú (IRP) between 2005 and 2018. The LR model obtained the best results for predicting AVM cure with an accuracy of 92.16%, sensitivity of 92.86%, specificity of 88.89%, precision of 97.50%, and AUC of 97.62%, which shows that ML models are suitable for use for predicting the prognosis of medical conditions such as AVM and can be a support tool for medical decision-making. In addition, several factors were identified that could explain whether patients with AMV would be cured at 36 months with the highest likelihood: the location of the AVM, the occupation of the patient, and the presence of hemorrhage.

Recently natural gas (NG) global market attracted much attention in case it is cleaner than oil, and simultaneously in most regions is cheaper than renewable energy sources. However, price fluctuations, environmental concerns, technological development, emerging unconventional resources, energy security challenges, and shipment are some of the forces that made the NG market more dynamic and complex. From a policy-making perspective, it is vital to uncover demand-side future trends. This paper proposed an intelligent forecasting model to forecast NG global demand, however investigating a multi-dimensional purified input vector. The model starts with a data mining (DM) step to purify input features, identify the best time lags, and to pre-process selected input vector. Then a hybrid artificial neural network (ANN) which equipped with genetic optimizer is applied to set up ANN’s characteristics. Among 13 available input features, six features (e.g. Alternative and Nuclear Energy, CO2 Emissions, GDP per Capita, Urban Population, Natural Gas Production, Oil Consumption) selected as the most critical feature via the DM step. Then, the hybrid prediction model is designed to extrapolate the consumption of future trends. The proposed model overcomes competitive models refer to different error based evaluation statistics. Besides, as the model proposed the best input feature set, results compared to the model which used the raw input set, with no DM purification process.

Earliest critical context of the pandemic, preceding the first real epidemiological wave of contagion in Bulgaria, was examined in a socio-affective perspective. A retrospective and agnostic analytical approach was adopted. Our goal was to identify traits and trends that explain public health support (PHS) of Bulgarians during the first two months of the declared state of emergency. We investigated a set of variables with a unified method within an international scientific network, named International Collaboration on Social & Moral Psychology of COVID-19 (ICSMP) in April and May 2020. Conspiracy Theories beliefs were a significant predictor of lower PHS. Psychological Well-being was significantly associated with Physical Contact and Anti-Corona Policy Support. Physical Contact was significantly predicted by less Conspiracy Theories beliefs, higher Collective Narcissism, Open-mindedness, higher Trait Self-Control, Moral Identity, Risk Perception, and Psychological Well-Being. Physical Hygiene compliance was predicted by less Conspiracy Theories beliefs, Collective Narcissism, Morality-as-Cooperation, Moral Identity, and Psychological Well-Being. Results revealed two polar trends of support and non-support of public health policies. The contribution of this study is in providing evidence for affective polarization and phenomenology of (non)precarity during the outbreak of the pandemic.

The study takes into account different classes of tunnel boring machines (TBMs), with the aim of identifying correlation models which are meant to estimate, at a preliminary design phase, the construction time of a tunnel and to evaluate the mechanical and operational parameters of the TBMs, starting from the knowledge of the tunnel length and/or the excavation diameter. To achieve this goal, first of all a database was created, thanks to the collection of the most meaningful technical parameters from a large number of tunnels; afterward, it was statistically analysed through Microsoft Excel. In a first phase, forecasting models were identified for the three types of machines investigated, separately for compact rocks (open TBM) and fractured rocks (single and double shield TBM). Then, the mechanical parameters collected through the database were analysed, with the aim of obtaining models that take into account, in addition to the type of TBM, the geological aspect, and the type of rock characterising the rock mass. Finally, the validation of the study was proposed in a real case, represented by the Moncenisio base tunnel, a work included in the new Turin–Lyon connection line. The estimated values were compared with the real ones, in order to verify the accuracy of the experimental models identified.

The evaluation of geometric defects is necessary in order to maintain the integrity of structures over time. These assessments are designed to detect damages of structures and ideally help inspectors to estimate the remaining life of structures. Current methodologies for monitoring structural systems, while providing useful information about the current state of a structure, are limited in the monitoring of defects over time and in linking them to predictive simulation. This paper presents a new approach to the predictive modeling of geometric defects. A combination of segmented from point clouds are parametrized using the convex hull algorithm to extract features from detected defects, and a stochastic dynamic model is then adapted to these features to model the evolution of the hull over time. Describing a defect in terms of its parameterized hull enables consistent temporal tracking for predictive purposes, while implicitly reducing data dimensionality and complexity as well. In this study, 2D point clouds analogous to information derived from point clouds were first generated over simulated life-cycles. The evolutions of point cloud hull parameterizations were modeled as stochastic dynamical processes via autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and vectorized autoregression (VAR) and compared against ground truth. The results indicate that this convex hull approach provides consistent and accurate representations of defect evolution across a range of defect topologies and is reasonably robust to noisy measurements, however assumptions regarding the underlying dynamical process play a significant the role in predictive accuracy. The results were then validated on experimental data from fatigue testing with high accuracy. Longer term, the results of this work will support finite element model updating for predictive analysis of structural capacity.

ABSTRACT Background It is important to be able to predict, for each individual patient, the likelihood of later metastatic occurrence, because the prediction can guide treatment plans tailored to a specific patient to prevent metastasis and to help avoid under- or over-treatment. Deep Neural Network (DNN) learning, commonly referred to as deep learning, has become popular due to its success in image detection and prediction, but questions such as whether deep learning outperforms other machine learning methods when using non-image clinical data remain unanswered. Grid search has been introduced to deep learning hyperparameter tunning for the purpose of improving its prediction performance, but the effect of grid search on other machine learning methods are under-studied. In this research, we take the empirical approach to study the performance of deep learning and other machine learning methods when using non-image clinical data to predict the occurrence of breast cancer metastasis (BCM) 5, 10, or 15-years after the initial treatment. We developed DNN models as well as models using 9 other machine learning methods including Naive Bayes (NB), Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), LASSO, Decision Tree (DT), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Random Forrest (RF), AdaBoost (ADB), and XGBoost (XGB). We used grid search to tune hyperparameters for all methods. We then compared the deep learning models to the models trained using the 9 other machine learning methods. Results Based on the mean test AUC results, DNN ranks 6th, 4th, and 3rd when predicting 5-year, 10-year, and 15-year BCM respectively, out of 10 machine learning methods. The top performing methods in predicting 5-year BCM are XGB(1^st), RF(2^nd), and KNN(3^rd). For predicting 10-year BCM the top performers are XGB (1^st), RF(2^nd), and NB(3^rd) . Finally, for 15-year BCM the top performers are SVM (1^st), LR and LASSO (tied for 2^nd), and DNN (3^rd). The ensemble methods RF and XGB outperform other methods when data are less balanced, while SVM, LR, LASSO, and DNN outperform other methods when data are more balanced. Our statistical testing results show that at a significance level of 0.05 DNN overall performs no worse than other machine learning methods when predicting 5-year, 10-year, and 15-year BCM. Conclusions Our results show that deep learning with grid search overall performs at least as well as other machine learning methods when using non-image clinical data. It is interesting to note that some of the other machine learning methods such as XGB, RF, and SVM are very strong competitors of DNN when incorporating grid search. It is also worth noting that the computation time required to do grid search with DNN is way more than that required to do grid search with the other 9 machine learning methods.

Pedestrian object detection plays a significant role in intelligent systems such as intelligent traffic and monitoring. Traditional machine learning methods on pedestrian detection have shown various drawbacks, \eg{} low accuracy, slow speed, \etc The Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) based object detection algorithms have demonstrated remarkable advantages in the field of pedestrian detection. However, the mainstream CNNs still face the problems of slow speed and low detection accuracy, especially on small and occluded targets from aerial perspective. In this paper, we propose Multi-Scale Attention YOLO (MSA-YOLO) detection algorithm to address the above issues. MSA-YOLO includes a Squeeze, Excitation and Cross Stage Partial (SECSP) channel attention module for CNNs to extract richer pedestrian features with a small number of extra parameters. It also contains a multi-scale prediction module to capture the information among different pedestrian scales, which can recognize the small objects with higher accuracy and significantly reduce the missed detection. To sufficiently evaluate our proposed model, we manually collect and annotate a new benchmark dataset, Luoyang Pedestrian Dataset \footnote{The dataset can be downloaded through this anonymous link: \url{https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/13po1FX7Qk5RDgb60-dzOi74cq_kqDJtM?usp=sharing} }, which has much more sample annotations, features, scenes and image view angles than the existing benchmark datasets. In addition, the images in our dataset have higher resolution than most of benchmark pedestrian detection datasets, which can provide more detailed features of pedestrians and thus improve the model performance. When tested on Luoyang Pedestrian Dataset, our proposed MSA-YOLO algorithm significantly outperform the most commonly used baseline models with almost the same model size. This shows the efficiency of our proposed model. (The code and new dataset will be released to the public later.)

To achieve the near zero emission of wastewater in the flue gas desulfurization (FGD) system in coal-fired power plant and better utilize the exhaust heat from flue gas, a feasible technology of spraying FGD wastewater in the flue duct for evaporation is discussed in the present study. A full-scale influencing factor investigation on the wastewater droplet evaporation performance is established under the Eulerian-Lagrangian model numerically. The dominant factors, including the characters of wastewater droplets, flue gas and the spray nozzles were analyzed under different conditions, respectively. Considering the multiple factors and conditions in the process, a Least-Square support vector machine (LSSVM) model is introduced to predict the evaporation rate based on the numerical results. Conclusions are made that the flue gas temperature and droplet diameter are of great importance in the evaporation process. The spray direction of droplet parallel with the flue gas flow direction is profitable for the dispersion of droplet, resulting the maximal evaporation rate. A double-nozzle arrangement optimized with relatively small flow rate is recommended. The LSSVM model can accurately predict the evaporation rate using the numerical results with different conditions.