Li, Y.; Huang, Y.; Fan, J.; Zhang, H.; Li, Y.; Wang, X.; Deng, Q. Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Risks under Future Climate and Land-Use-Change Scenarios in the Yellow River Basin. Atmosphere2023, 14, 1599.
Li, Y.; Huang, Y.; Fan, J.; Zhang, H.; Li, Y.; Wang, X.; Deng, Q. Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Risks under Future Climate and Land-Use-Change Scenarios in the Yellow River Basin. Atmosphere 2023, 14, 1599.
Li, Y.; Huang, Y.; Fan, J.; Zhang, H.; Li, Y.; Wang, X.; Deng, Q. Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Risks under Future Climate and Land-Use-Change Scenarios in the Yellow River Basin. Atmosphere2023, 14, 1599.
Li, Y.; Huang, Y.; Fan, J.; Zhang, H.; Li, Y.; Wang, X.; Deng, Q. Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Risks under Future Climate and Land-Use-Change Scenarios in the Yellow River Basin. Atmosphere 2023, 14, 1599.
Abstract
The assessment and prediction of drought risk under future climate change and land use land cover (LULC) scenarios is critically important for drought prevention and mitigation, as it enables a clearer understanding of potential shifts in drought patterns. The primary aim of this study is to evaluate sub-seasonal and seasonal meteorological and hydrological drought hazards across the Yellow River Basin (YRB) under projected future climate conditions and LULC patterns. The BCC-CSM1-1 climate model projections from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset are utilized to represent future climate for 2025-2060 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The CA-Markov model is employed to predict future LULC distributions. Meteorological and hydrological drought risks across different YRB zones are evaluated through a copula-based risk assessment approach, based on the joint probability distribution of drought duration and severity. The results indicate that sub-seasonal meteorological and hydrological droughts will likely be the primary concern moving forward. Specifically, the upper YRB (zones A, B, C) exhibits greater vulnerability to sub-seasonal meteorological drought, while the Loess Plateau (zones C, E) shows higher susceptibility to sub-seasonal hydrological drought. Moreover, zone F in the downstream region may experience increased seasonal hydrological drought risk due to projected urban expansion in the middle and lower portions of the YRB.
Keywords
Meteorological drought; Hydrological drought; Drought risk prediction; future climate and land use land cover change scenarios
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science and Meteorology
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
