The present novel corona virus (2019-nCoV) infection has created a global emergency situation by spreading all over the world in a large scale within very short time period. The infection induced death rate is also very high. There is no vaccine or anti-viral medicine for such infection. So at this moment a major worldwide problem is that how we can control this pandemic. On the other hand, India is a high population density country, where the corona virus disease (COVID-19) has started to spread from $1^{st}$ week of March, 2020 in a significant number of COVID-19 positive cases. Due to this high population density human to human social contact rate is very high in India. So control of the pandemic COVID-19 in early stage is very urgent and challenging problem. Mathematical models are employed in this paper to study the COVID-19 dynamics, to identify the influential parameters and to find the proper prevention strategies to reduce the outbreak size. In this work, we have formulated a deterministic compartmental model to study the spreading of COVID-19 and estimated the model parameters by fitting the model with reported data of ongoing pandemic in India. Sensitivity analysis has been done to identify the key model parameters. The basic reproduction number has been estimated from actual data and the effective basic reproduction number has been studied on the basis of reported cases. Some effective preventive measures and their impacts on the disease dynamics have also been studied. Future trends of the disease transmission has been Predicted from our model with some control measures. Finally, the positive measures to control the disease have been summarized.

In the present study we introduce a deterministic mathematical model in order to study the interaction between the human immune system and a virus, like COVID 19. The mathematical analysis is based on the tools of dynamical systems theory, by modeling the interactions between the immune system and the virus, using a predator-prey method and following the ideas of G. Moza, from \cite{TGV}. It will be obtained some conclusions with medical relevance and the main three of them are the followings: 1) A deficiency of a single type of immunity in the early stages of virus proliferation, may lead to a large virus multiplication and the human body can loses the fight against this virus; 2) If the level of all components of the immunity system are at the normal threshold from the first moment of the infection and the immune system kill the virus at higher rate than the rate of virus reproduction, then the human body has the ability to stop the multiplication of the virus and liquidate it, that means the virus will be destroyed; 3) If the level of at least one type of immunity can be increased beyond the normal threshold, by medical interventions (like vaccination) in the early stages of virus infection, then the immune system has a better chance to win the fight with the virus.

Coronaviruse disease (COVID-19) outbreak has created an emergency globally, and social distancing and isolation is the only solution to prevent its spread. Several countries have announced fully locked on to tackle this pandemic. The recent COVID-2019 has shaken the globe with incidence cases of more than half-million cases, and a mortality toll of more than twenty thousand to date. The coronavirus family is inclusive of pathogen of both – animal species and humans, encapsulating the isolated severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV). Researchers round the globe have been dexterously working to decode this lethal virus. Many mathematical frameworks have also been depicted which have helped to understand the dynamics of the COVID-19. Research on coronaviruses continues to explore various aspects of viral replication and pathogenesis to understanding the predilection of these viruses to switch between species, to develop an infection in a new host, and to identify significant reservoirs of coronaviruses will dramatically aid in our potential to prophesize when and where potential epidemics may occur. Many of the non-structural and accessory proteins encoded by the viruses remain unclear and unknown. This systematic review highlights the current situation of the pandemic, virus genomic composition, pathogenesis, symptomatology, diagnosis, and prognosis along with mathematical models of disease transmission and dynamics.

The outburst of the CoVid-19 pandemic has raised several questions leading to a complex system in terms of modeling. Indeed, the modeling of the epidemic, at the level of a country, needs considering each of the different sources of contamination as well as the public health authorities' strategy, in a specific way. With this in mind, in the present paper, we develop a mathematical model of the CoVid-19 epidemic in Senegal. In the model, the population is subdivided into five compartments: susceptible, infected but asymptomatic, symptomatic, quarantined, and recovered immune people. In addition, due to its important impact on the propagation of the disease, we add one more variable: the number of infected objects. %\vspace{1mm} Therefore, the model corresponds to a system of six non-linear ordinary differential equations we submit to an analytical study to prove the relevancy of the model, simulate the evolution of the epidemic, and retrieve epidemiological parameters, namely the infection rate and the basic reproduction number, ${\cal R}_0$. Based on the senegalese territory CoVid-19 data, we simulate various scenarios as for the evolution of the epidemic in the country, in order to predict the peak and its magnitude with regard to the application of barrier measures. We also explore the option of collective immunity with special protection for vulnerable people. In doing so, non-available parameters are identified using some mathematical identification technics.

Background: The world, now in an emergency of preventing the drastic spread of COVID-19. After the infection was first reported in December 2019, almost every country did not pay attention to this highly contaminated disease and failed to react swiftly. Now the whole universe is in an vulnerable state, loosing a great loss of lives and facing difficulties in all socio-economic aspects. That is why we have the urge to develop an efficient mathematical model (quarantine) based on social consciousness to control the epidemic. Methods: This is a quarantine mathematical model. The outcome of the system is dependent on social consciousness. We have calculated the awareness level by considering various socio-economic factor of each country. In our model, the parameters are Education Index, GDP per capita, population density, high literacy and stable economy. To maximize the efficiency of the model, it has to be implemented in initial stage. However, strict application of the method in vigorous stage of epidemic will also bring a satisfactory outcome. Results: Higher social consciousness will decrease the number of infected population dramatically while minimal or lower awareness will do a outburst. Conclusion: Outbreak will be in control of health care system, lower the death rate and will ensure social and economic stability.

In the present time, the biggest problem of the world is the outbreak of novel coronavirus. Novel coronavirus (COVID-19), this one name has become a part of our daily lives over the past few months. Beyond the boundaries of medical science, coronavirus is now the main subject of research in all fields like Applied Mathematics, Economy, Philosophy, Sociology, Politics upto living room. The epidemic has brought unimaginable changes in our traditional habits and daily routines. Thousands of people in our country are fighting with the rest of the world to survive in various new situations. There are different kinds of coronavirus appeared in different times. In this time, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is responsible for the coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19). This virus was first identified towards the end of 2019 in the city of Wuhan in the province of Hubei in China. Within very short duration of time and very fast, it has spread throughout a large part of the world. In this study, the main aim is to investigate the spreading rate, death rate, recovery rate due to corona virus infection and to study the future of the coronavirus in India by using mathematical modeling based on the previous data. Mathematical models, in this situation, are the important tools in recruiting effective strategies to fight this epidemic. India is at high risk of spreading the disease and is facing many losses in socio-economic aspects. With current infection rates and existing levels of personal alertness, the number of infected people in India will increase at least in the next three months. Proper social awareness, maintain of social distance, large rate of testing and separation may break the chain of the Coronavirus-2.

A mathematical model is proposed to analyze the spreading dynamics of COVID-19. By using the parameters of the model, namely the basic reproduction number (R0) and the attenuation constant (k), the daily number of infections (DNI) and the cumulative number of infections (CNI) are deduced and shown to be in good agreement with experimental data. This model effectively addresses three key issues: explaining the waveform pattern of DNI, predicting the occurrence of the second wave of infection, and understanding the competitive spread of two viruses in a region. The findings demonstrate that these significant challenges can be comprehensively tackled using a simple mathematical framework. The theoretical insights derived from this model hold potential in guiding the estimation of the severity of an infection wave and formulating effective strategies for the control and mitigation of epidemic outbreaks.

In this research work, we present a mathematical model for novel coronavirus -19 (NCOVID-19) which is consisted on three different compartments susceptible, infected and recovered classes abbreviated as under convex incident rate involving and emigration rate. We first derive the formulation of the model. Also, we give some qualitative aspects for the model including existence of equilibriums and its stability results by using various tools of nonlinear analysis. Then by mean of nonstandard finite difference scheme (NSFD), we simulate the results against the data of Wuhan city for the sixty days. By means of simulation, we show how protection, exposure, emigration, death and cure rates affect the susceptible, infected and recovered population with the passage of time involving emigration. On the basis of simulation, we observe the dynamical behavior due to emigration of susceptible and infected classes or one of these two.

In attempting to predict the further course of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2, mathematical models of different types are frequently employed and calibrated to reported case numbers. Among the major challenges in interpreting these data is the uncertainty about the amount of undetected infections, or conversely: the detection ratio. As a result, some models include assumptions about the percentage of detected cases among total infections while others completely neglect undetected cases. Here, we illustrate how model projections about case and fatality numbers vary significantly under varying assumptions on the detection ratio. Uncertainties in model predictions can be significantly reduced by representative testing, both for antibodies and active virus RNA, to uncover past and current infections that have gone undetected thus far.

In March 2020, the World Health Organization declared coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, to be a pandemic. Since the declaration, Nigeria economy has been greatly impacted thus resulting in a recession. This paper considers a couple of misconceptions among Nigerian people in the COVID-19 pandemic era thereby causing the spread of the novel virus and hence making the situation difficult for the government to handle. In particular, we discuss the first and second waves of the pandemic as it affects the Nigerian people. The impact of the pandemic on animals and the role of mathematical epidemiologists in combatting the spread is discussed herein. We give some recommendations that could be adopted by the government and the good people of Nigeria to reduce the further spread of the virus.

Compartmental models that dynamically divide the host population in categories such as susceptible, infected and immune constitute the mainstream of epidemiological modelling. Effectively such models treat infection and immunity as binary variables. We constructed an individual based stochastic model that considers immunity as a continuous variable and incorporates factors that bring about small changes in immunity. The small immunity effects (SIE) comprise cross immunity by other infections, small increments in immunity by sub clinical exposures and slow decay in the absence of repeated exposure. The model makes qualitatively different epidemiological predictions including repeated waves without the need for new variants, dwarf peaks (peak and decline of a wave much before reaching herd immunity threshold), symmetry in the upward and downward slopes of a wave, endemic state, new surges after variable and unpredictable gaps, new surge after vaccinating majority of population. In effect the SIE model raises alternative possible causes of the universally observed dwarf and symmetric peaks and repeated surges, observed particularly well during the Covid-19 pandemic. We also suggest testable predictions to differentiate between the alternative causes for repeated waves. The model further shows complex interactions of different interventions that can be synergistic as well as antagonistic. The model suggests that interventions that are beneficial in the short run can also be hazardous in the long run.

Susceptible, infective, recovered, and hospitalized/isolated individuals are placed on the cells of a nxn square lattice, where each cell is occupied by a single individual or is vacant. At discrete time units (typically one day each) all susceptibles and infectives execute a random movement and when a coincidence of the two types occurs the susceptible is converted to infective status according to some probability. Infectives are labelled by the number of days since originally infected. At each time increment the age label of the infectives is increased by one unit. When the label reaches a number like 15 or 20 days the susceptibles recover with some probability or become isolated/hospitalized. Upon reaching some age the latter types either recover or die. Probabilities for the movements and conversions from one status to another are implemented by random numbergeneration. Simulations were carried out to investigate the effect of several probability and age parameters, the size of population (proportional to nxn) and density (related to fraction of occupied cells), and the size of the movements. Mid-term gradual conversion of susceptibles to isolated was explored as intervention policy.

The developments of confirmed daily Sars-CoV-2 infections can be modeled a posteriori in a comparatively simple and satisfactory way by means of a special exponential function: its exponential coefficient varies exponentially with time itself. This property enables the function to directly simulate the „daily case“ curve fragments observed for the first waves of the current epidemics in a number of counties and countries. Linear combinations of two or more of the functions allow for the modeling of the complete curves observed in the vast majority of all regions for which case number developments have been tabulated.

The novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) is spreading and has caused a large-scale infection in China since December 2019. Thefirst infected person was declared on March 18, 2020 in Djibouti. This has led to a signicant impact on the lives and economy in Djibouti and other countries. In this study, we propose a double compartment stochastic model which describes the evolution of the infection rate and the evolution of the number of infected in the period from May 20 to June 23, 2020. We will also propose the evolution of people infected in two states, recovered and deceased.

This pandemic of COVID-19 is tedious to control. The only lockdown is the way to stop the spread of this infection. Conventional health care is facing a real challenge to operate. Primarily the challenge is to provide health care support for COVID-19 patients with limited resources and continue the health care services like earlier.Perhaps, this challenge is the same but magnitude is different from different geographical locations around the globe. In this article, we presented a Bayesian algorithm with the Code to predict cancer death due to COVID-19. This code is possible to run at different time points and different geographical locations around the world. This code will help us to get the best strategy and shift the treatment option for cancer treatment. The model would provide physicians with an objective tool for counseling and decision making at different hotspots and small areas to implement.

We present a modification of the logistic model of epidemics that takes into account the possibility that an epidemic can develop from multiple physically-distinct hot spots with a range of starting times. This produces an improved understanding of the time evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic taking place in the United States in the spring of 2020.

Rapidly spreading disease, COVID-19 is classified as the human-to-human transmission-able disease and currently is a pandemic in the Globe. In this paper, we propose conceptual mathematical models for COVID-19 outbreak and it's control measurement; quarantine, hospitalization and the effect of panic and anxiety. In this situation, mathematical models are a important tool to employ an effective strategy in order to fight against this pandemic. We establish the positivity and boundedness of solutions, local and global stability analysis of equilibria to examine its epidemiological relevance. To validate the model and estimating the important model parameters and prediction about the disease, we consider the real cases of Italy from $15^{th}$ Feb to $13^{th} $ April 2020. In a series of graphical map, we have presented the comparative study to estimate the current scenarios and to predict the control measurement time boundary of the outbreak.

At the beginning of 2020, with the onset of the pandemic, the traditional learning environment for learners drastically changed globally. Since then, most students/teachers have started and practiced distance and virtual learning/teaching. Thus, a technological breakthrough in virtual learning has followed. In connection with this, many countries worldwide have commenced allocating additional financing and funds for educational institutions' technological improvement and development. The long-term stay in distance learning has revealed and highlighted new problems students face: their knowledge level has decreased, they lack socialization skills, and they face psychological and physical health problems. Due to this negative impact on students, a need to research and evaluate how much the EU countries allocated to solve the distance learning-caused problems and what programs or models they prepared has emerged and encouraged further studies. The research has found that many countries increased their allocations very minimally, e.g., 0.0.1%, but some increased their available budgets to 32%. Notably, most countries did not separate distance learning exit funding from distance learning preparation funding. Based on the problems the countries saw, only a few states identified withdrawal from distance learning as a problem. Considering this, we set ourselves the goal to evaluate exit models from distance learning and allocated funding amounts. The following objectives were planned to achieve the goal: · to evaluate the global practice of exit from distance learning; · to determine the scope of funding for pandemic management; · to evaluate the amounts of funding allocated to manage pandemic-caused consequences and the GDP ratio. Research methods: mathematical-statistical analysis, empirical analysis, and analysis of scientific literature.

In the promptness of the COVID-19 outbreak, it would be very important to observe and estimate the pattern of diseases to reduce the contagious infection. To study this effect, we developed a COVID-19 analytical epidemic framework that combines with isolation and lockdown effect by incorporating five various groups of individuals. Then we analyze the model by evaluating the equilibrium points and analyzing their stability as well as determining the basic reproduction number. The extensive numerical simulations show the dynamics of a different group of the population over time. Thus, our findings based on the sensitivity analysis and the reproduction number highlight the role of outbreak of the virus that can be useful to avoid a massive collapse in Bangladesh and rest of the world. The outcome of this study concludes that outbreak will be in control which ensures the social and economic stability.

This note applies the Logistic model approximation to determine the suitable start and end dates for the observed epidemic curves in the total number of cases for different countries. The Logistic model is presented and explicit relations for the beginning and end dates are obtained together with the total epidemic duration. Using data from Brazil, Germany, Italy, and South Korea, the extreme dates are calculated. Since the epidemic onset time is found, a fair comparison of the epidemic curve for these countries is obtained. The result does not depend on the poor statistics available in the early phase of the epidemic when the initial number of infectives is unknown. In fact, the total duration depends only on the characteristic time parameter of the LM model.

This research uses a gravity model method to investigate the factors determining the number of tourists visiting Australia. Understanding the variables that draw visitors to specific locations is essential for policymakers and other stakeholders in the tourism sector since tourism continues to play a significant role in the economy of many countries worldwide. Despite the widespread use of gravity models in the analysis of international tourism flows, only a tiny amount of attention has been paid to particularly researching the flow of tourists to Australia. This research addresses this knowledge gap by analyzing the variables influencing travel patterns to Australia. The gravity model framework is used, and it considers factors like gross domestic product, gross domestic product per capita, migratory stocks, distance, population size, cost of living, and cultural similarities. The purpose of this research is to aid in developing focused marketing strategies by providing insights into the factors that influence the flow of tourists to Australia via the analysis of these variables. The results are anticipated to add to the current literature on gravity modeling in tourist research and give practical implications for industry stakeholders and policymakers. The discussion of the findings, their ramifications, and possible directions for further study serves as the conclusion of the work.

The earlier analytical analysis (part A) of the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) epidemics model for a constant ratio k of infection to recovery rates is extended here to the semi-time case which is particularly appropriate for modeling the temporal evolution of later (than the first) pandemic waves when a greater population fraction from the first wave has been infected. In the semi-time case the SIR model does not describe the quantities in the past; instead they only hold for times later than the initial time t=0 of the newly occurring wave. Simple exact and approximative expressions are derived for the final and maximum values of the infected, susceptible and revovered/removed population fractions as well the daily rate and cumulative number of new infections. It is demonstrated that two types of temporal evolution of the daily rate of new infections j(tau) occur depending on the values of k and the initial value of the infected fraction I(0)=eta: in the decay case for k > 1-2 eta the daily rate monotonically decreases at all positive times from its initial maximum value j(0)=eta (1-eta). Alternatively, in the peak case for k<1-2 eta the daily rate attains a maximum at a finite positive time. By comparing the approximated analytical solutions for j(tau) and J(tau) with the exact ones obtained by numerical integration, it is shown that the analytical approximations are accurate within at most only 2.5 percent. It is found that the initial fraction of infected persons sensitively influences the late time dependence of the epidemics, the maximum daily rate and its peak time. Such dependencies do not exist in the earlier investigated all-time case.

The world is facing new challenges every day; however, with the spread of the pandemic around the world, this new challenge is different. The pandemic is increasing and concentrating various challenges simultaneously. Although different sectors are facing consequences, the most important sectors, that is, health and economy are the most affected. When the pandemic began, it was not known how long it would last, which complicated health and economic planning. Therefore, it is important for decision makers and the public to know the predictions and expectations of the future of these challenges. In this work, the current situation is analyzed. Then, an expectation model is developed based on the statistics of the pandemic using a growth rate model based on an exponential and logarithmic rate of increase. Based on the available open data about the pandemic spread, the model can successfully predict future expectations, including the duration and maximum number of cases of the pandemic. The model uses the equilibrium point as the day the cases decrease. The model can be used for planning and the development of strategies to overcome these challenges.

In the midst of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic, examining reported case data could lead to biased speculations and conclusions. Indeed, estimation of unreported infections is crucial for a better understanding of the current emergency in China and in other countries. In this study, we aimed to estimate the unreported number of infections in China prior to 23 March 2020 restrictions. To do that, we developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Dead (SEIRD) model which estimated unreported cases and infections from the reported number of deaths. Our approach relied on the fact that observed deaths were less likely to be affected by reporting biases than reported infections. Interestingly, we estimated that R0 was 2.43 (95%CI= 2.42 – 2.44) at the beginning of the epidemic, and that 92.9% (95%CI= 92.5% - 93.1%) of total cases were not reported. Similarly, the proportion of unreported new infections by day ranged from 52.1% to 100%, with a total of 91.8% (95%CI= 91.6% - 92.1%) unreported infections. Agreement between our estimates and those from previous studies proved that our approach was reliable to estimate prevalence and incidence of undocumented SARS-CoV2 infections. Once tested on Chinese data, our model could be applied on other countries with different surveillance and testing policies.

The virus SARS-CoV-2 has resulted in numerous modelling approaches arising rapidly to understand the spread of the disease COVID-19 and to plan for future interventions. Herein, we present an SEIR model with a spatial spread component as well as four infectious compartments to account for the variety of symptom levels and transmission rate. The model takes into account the pattern of spatial vulnerability in South Africa through a vulnerability index that is based on socioeconomic and health susceptibility characteristics. Another spatially relevant factor in this context is level of mobility throughout. The thesis of this study is that without the contextual spatial spread modelling, the heterogeneity in COVID-19 prevalence in the South African setting would not be captured. The model is illustrated on South African COVID-19 case counts and hospitalisations.

Innovations in engineering education are undergoing a noticeable transformation. Higher education institutions are practicing distance education, remote laboratories, studio pedagogies and several other approaches in order to increase their students’ retention, success, and preparedness for the job market. In engineering education, maker spaces have become popular in the last ten years in universities as well as community colleges, high-schools and community innovation hubs. A large number of engineering colleges have allocated significant spaces, and at some universities entire buildings as maker spaces to be used for curricular and extracurricular activities. Success stories of these types of spaces are well documented. This paper describes the activities and programs held at Tennessee Tech University’s maker space called ‘iMakerSpace.’ These accomplishments include several workforce development activities. The impact and effectiveness of the iMakerSpace is evaluated through analysis of survey data.

In this research, we present the first steps taken towards a data-driven agent-based model (ABM) specifically designed for simulating infectious disease dynamics in Greece. Amidst the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2, this research holds significant importance as it can offer valuable insights into disease transmission patterns and assist in devising effective intervention strategies. To the best of our knowledge, no similar study has been conducted in Greece. We constructed a prototype ABM that utilizes publicly accessible data to accurately represent the complex interactions and dynamics of disease spread in the Greek population. By incorporating demographic information and behavioral patterns, our model captures the specific characteristics of Greece, enabling accurate and context-specific simulations. By using our proposed ABM, we aim to assist policymakers in making informed decisions regarding disease control and prevention. Through the use of simulations, policymakers have the opportunity to explore different scenarios and predict the possible results of various intervention measures. These may include strategies like testing approaches, contact tracing, vaccination campaigns, and social distancing measures. Through these simulations, policymakers can assess the effectiveness and feasibility of these interventions, leading to the development of well-informed strategies aimed at reducing the impact of infectious diseases on the Greek population. This study is an initial exploration toward understanding disease transmission patterns and a first step towards formulating effective intervention strategies for Greece.

Before COVID-19, post-secondary learning was dominated by in-person, institution-organized meetings. With the March 12, 2020 lockdown, learning became virtual, largely dependent on commercial online platforms. Already more likely to experience anxiety and depression in re-lation to their research work, perhaps no students have endured more regarding the limitations imposed by COVID-19 on their mentorship and supervision than graduate students. The in-crease in mental health issues facing graduate students has come to the attention of their post-secondary institutions. Programs have been devised with the aim of reducing these chal-lenges. However, the additional attention and funds to combat depression and anxiety have not shown anticipated results. A new approach to mitigate anxiety and depression in graduate students through mentorship and supervision is warranted. Offered here is an award-winning model featuring self-directed learning in a community based on consensus decision-making where consensus represents the adding together of different points of view rather than agreement. The approach is non-hierarchical in structure, based in narrative research. The proposed model and approach are presented and limitations considered. This model and approach are offered as a likely solution to ebb the increase in anxiety and depression in graduate stu-dents—particularly in response to COVID-19.

This paper is an attempt to present a COVID-19 prediction model for India. Lockdown plays an important role in the arrest of community spread of the disease. This was evident from the study of other countries such as Russia, Belgium and Germany, where peak cases were recorded within a month of the imposition of lockdown, that it showed an immediate positive effect. However, in India, even after 65 days of lockdown, there is no decrease in the number of daily new cases reported. There were many models prepared for India and almost all of them were proven wrong by the increase in the number of cases. The model in this paper is prepared using the COVID-19 trend in other countries, population density and the pandemic bell curve. Based on the available data until 24^th May 2020, two scenarios have been presented. In one, the peak shall be obtained when the number of daily new cases per million reaches 190 and in the second when the daily new cases per million reach 724. One model predicts the number of cases to reach 1 million by mid-July 2020. The other model predicts the number of cases to peak by mid-July with the total cases reaching 20 million. The predicted cases were compared with the actual cases recorded for the period 25^th May to 11^th June 2020. It was observed that the actual values matched quite reasonably with the predicted values.

This study developed a system dynamics model to understand the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Japan. The model is built on the generic SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, and Recovered) framework adopted by Ghaffarzadegan and Rahmandad (2020) to build a system dynamics model for the spread of COVID-19 in Iran. Japan seems to be successful in containing the spread compared with other countries, and its first peak has passed. However, because this also leaves a large population still susceptible to the virus, it could cause a second and potentially higher peak of infection after the state of emergency aimed at reducing contact rate is lifted. As the government has proposed the “New Lifestyle,” it is critical to behave cautiously so as not to be infected. While the model focuses on the SEIR structure, the reflection of other sub-structures such as economy and hospital capacity that have tradeoffs with reducing contact rate should be beneficial. However, before extending the model, it is also critical to conduct estimates using confidence intervals rather than point estimates to better reflect uncertainties.

The paper demonstrates the analysis of Corona Virus Disease based on a CNN probabilistic model. It involves a technique for classification and prediction by recognizing typical and diagnostically most important CT images features relating to Corona Virus. The main contributions of the research include predicting the probability of recurrences in no recurrence (first time detection) cases at applying our proposed Convolution neural network structure. The Study is validated on 2002 chest X-ray images with 60 confirmed positive covid19 cases and (650 bacterial – 412 viral -880 normal) x-ray images. The proposed CNN compared with traditional classifiers with proposed CHFS feature extraction model. The experimental study has done with real data demonstrates the feasibility and potential of the proposed approach for the said cause. The result of proposed CNN structure has been successfully done to achieve 98.20% accuracy of covid19 potential cases with comparable of traditional classifiers.

The ongoing outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia (also known as COVID-19) has triggered a series of stringent control measures in China, such as city closure, traffic restrictions, contact tracing and household quarantine. These containment efforts often lead to changes in the contact pattern among individuals of the population. Many existing compartmental epidemic models fail to account for the effects of contact structure. In this paper, we devised a pairwise epidemic model to analyze the COVID-19 outbreak in China based on confirmed cases reported during the period February 3rd--17th, 2020. By explicitly incorporating the effects of family clusters and contact tracing followed by household quarantine and isolation, our model provides a good fit to the trajectory of COVID-19 infections and is useful to predict the epidemic trend. We obtained the average of the reproduction number $R=1.494$ ($95\%$ CI: $1.483-1.507$) for Hubei province and $R=1.178$ ($95\%$ CI: $1.145-1.158$) for China (except Hubei), suggesting that some existing studies may have overestimated the reproduction number by neglecting the dynamical correlations and clustering effects. We forecasted that the COVID-19 epidemic would peak on February 13th ($95\%$ CI: February $9-17$th) in Hubei and 6 days eariler in the regions outside Hubei. Moreover the epidemic was expected to last until the middle of March in China (except Hubei) and late April in Hubei. The sensitivity analysis shows that ongoing exposure for the susceptible and population clustering play an important role in the disease propagation. With the enforcement of household quarantine measures, the reproduction number $R$ effectively reduces and epidemic quantities decrease accordingly. Furthermore, we gave an answer to the public concern on how long the stringent containment strategies should maintain. Through numerical analysis, we suggested that the time for the resumption of work and production in China (except Hubei) and Hubei would be the middle of March and the end of April, 2020, respectively. These constructive suggestions may bring some immeasurable social-economic benefits in the long run.

The COVID-19 epidemic is an emerging infectious disease of the viral zoonosis type caused by the corona-virus strain SARS-CoV-2, is classified as a human-to-human communicable disease and is currently a pandemic worldwide. In this paper, we propose conceptual mathematical models the epidemic dynamics of four compartments. We have collected data from the Djibouti health ministry. We define the positivity, boundedness of solutions and basic reproduction number. Then, we study local and global stability and bifurcation analysis of equilibrium to examine its epidemiological relevance. Finally, we analyze the fit of the data in comparison with the result of our mathematical results, to validate the model and estimating the important model parameters and prediction about the disease, we consider the real cases of Djibouti from 23th March to 10th June, 2020.

The unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic posed major challenges to local, regional, and global economies and health systems, and fast clinical diagnostic workflows were urgently needed to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Here, we describe the platform and workflow established at the Cornell COVID-19 Testing Laboratory (CCTL) for high-throughput testing of clinical samples from the university and the surrounding community. This workflow enabled efficient and rapid detection, and successful control of SARS-CoV-2 infection on campus and its surrounding communities. Our cost-effective and fully automated workflow enabled testing of over 8,000 pooled samples per day and provided results for over 2 million samples. Automation of time- and effort-intensive sample processing steps such as accessioning and pooling increased laboratory efficiency. Customized software applications were developed to track and store samples, deconvolute positive pools, track and report results and for workflow integration from sample receipt to result reporting. Additionally, quality control dashboards and turn-around time tracking applications were built to monitor assay and laboratory performance. As infectious disease outbreaks pose a constant threat to both human and animal health, the highly effective workflow implemented at CCTL could be modeled to establish regional high-capacity testing hubs for infectious disease preparedness and emergency response.

Consumer behavior is unpredictable. The accelerated pace of life and daily changes in the desires and preferences of each individual require significant marketing efforts to fulfill needs. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has created significant disruptions in the market to which consumers have responded in a specific way. Our previous research on this topic [11], which included an analysis of various factors that influence consumer habits, was the basis for a new, more detailed analysis of the impact on individual consumption. The results of our previous research set psy-chological influence as a significant factor in consumer behavior. That is the main reason we put the impact of COVID-19 at the center of this research. The analysis was conducted on an existing sample of 559 respondents in the Republic of Croatia. The data obtained by the questionnaire were used to develop a hierarchical model. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a model based on deci-sion-making and was used to rank individual influences on consumer behavior due to the COVID-19 pandemic. These influences have had a significant impact on consumer buying habits.

Corona Virus Infectious Disease (COVID-19) is newly emerging infectious disease. This disease is known to the globe in early 2019. Poor status of mental health is often caused by unemployment, ongoing socio-economic condition. Poor mental health may even accelerate the process of panic attack. It has been happening rapidly during COVID-19. It has a great effect on human health. This paper utilizes multiple related factors those have impact on causing panic attack. Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based framework is utilized in this paper that assembles multiple RNN layers along with other parameters into a single platform. This method is implemented by capturing interfering factors and predicts panic attack tendency of people during COVID-19. Early prediction of panic attacks may assist in saving life from unwanted circumstances.

Background: Outbreak of the Covid-19 is now an ongoing global health emergency. At the end of December 2019, the first infection was reported in Wuhan and the world did not pay attention to this extremely contaminated disease and plucked to react rapidly. The World is in an vulnerable state in disease spreading, facing a great loss of lives and socio-economic aspects also. That is why we have proposed a potential mathematical model with data analysis to predict and control the outcome of this pandemic. Methods: The model presented the epidemic dynamics of multiple compartments. We collected available online data of Spain. In primary step, we estimated the parameters using either the data analysis or reference papers. Then we did the data fitting analysis in comparison with the outcome of our mathematical results. The results of the system depended not only the parameters also on social consciousness. Results: It is found that disease progression in this model is determined by the basic reproductive ratio, $R_0$, the actual epidemic of $R_0$ and effective $R(t)$ of each day. If $R_0>1$, the number of latently infected individuals grows exponentially; endemic solution is stable while infection rate decays if $R_0<1$. The optimal control theory stated that vaccination and treatment strategies are highly effective for reducing both susceptible and infected population and to increase the recover rate high. In Spain, after state of alarm (quarantine) on 14 March 2020, reported cases increasing for 13 days only and from the 14th day, daily reported cases started to decline albeit with small fluctuation. Our proposed model approximates that the disease in Spain could be fully under control by after July 2020. Conclusion: Outbreak will be in control of health care system, reduce the death rate and will ensure social-economic stability.

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is provoking a prevalent consequence on mental health because of less interaction among people, economic collapse, negativity, fear of losing jobs, and death of the near and dear ones. To express their mental state, people often are using social media as one of the preferred means. Due to reduced outdoor activities, people are spending more time on social media than usual and expressing their emotion of anxiety, fear, and depression. On a daily basis, about 2.5 quintillion bytes of data are generated on social media, analyzing this big data can become an excellent means to evaluate the effect of COVID-19 on mental health. In this work, we have analyzed data from Twitter microblog (tweets) to find out the effect of COVID-19 on peoples mental health with a special focus on depression. We propose a novel pipeline, based on recurrent neural network (in the form of long-short term memory or LSTM) and convolutional neural network, capable of identifying depressive tweets with an accuracy of 99.42%. Preprocessed using various natural language processing techniques, the aim was to find out depressive emotion from these tweets. Analyzing over 571 thousand tweets posted between October 2019 and May 2020 by 482 users, a significant rise in depressing tweets was observed between February and May of 2020, which indicates as an impact of the long ongoing COVID-19 pandemic situation.

The purpose of the study is to analyze the trade performance of Bangladesh during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study identifies the effects of private consumption demand shock and trade disruptions due to higher trade costs caused by the pandemic on the export and import of Bangladesh in different sectors and compares the analysis results with actual data. Based on the previous literature, this study assumes the shocks in different levels such as low, medium, and high level and identifies their effects on the trade in Bangladesh. The study applies the CGE model using GTAP to measure the effects of the shocks on trade and output and compares the actual trade with the CGE simulated results. The results of the study suggest that both demand shock and trade disruptions substantially affect the export, import, and domestic output of Bangladesh during the Covid-19 pandemic. It is also evident that the higher the level of shock, the higher the impact on trade and output. The actual export and import data cross-validate the CGE analysis results and provide mixed findings on the trade performance of various sectors of Bangladesh during the pandemic.

COVID-19 is a contagious respiratory disease that is causing significant global morbidity and mortality. Understanding the impact of a SARS-CoV-2 infection on the host metabolism is still in its infancy but of great importance. Herein, we investigated the metabolic response during viral shedding and post-shedding in an asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 ferret model (n=6) challenged with two SARS-CoV-2 isolates. Virological and metabolic analyses were performed on (minimally invasive) collected oral swabs, rectal swabs, and nasal washes. Fragments of SARS-CoV-2 RNA were only found in the nasal wash samples in four of the six ferrets, and in the samples collected 3 to 9 days post-infection (referred to as viral shedding). Central carbon metabolism metabolites were analyzed during viral shedding and post-shedding periods using a dynamic MRM (dMRM) database and method. Subsequent untargeted metabolomics and lipidomics of the same samples were performed using an LC-QToF-MS methodology, building upon the identified differentiated central carbon metabolism metabolites. Multivariate analysis of the acquired data identified 29 significant metabolites and three lipids that were subjected to pathway enrichment and impact analysis. The presence of viral shedding coincided with the challenge dose administered and significant changes in the citric acid cycle, purine metabolism, and pentose phosphate pathways, amongst others, in the host nasal wash samples. An elevated immune response in the host was also observed between the two isolates studied. These results support other reported metabolomic-based findings found in clinical observational studies and indicate the utility of metabolomics applied to ferrets for further COVID-19 research that advances early diagnosis of asymptomatic and mild clinical COVID-19 infections, in addition to assessing the effectiveness of new or re-purposed drug therapies.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was declared a pandemic in March 2020, which led to the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions that had inadvertent physical, mental and social effects. The purpose of this study was to examine the experiences and responses of Canadians to these interventions on Twitter using the Kübler-Ross Change Curve (KRCC) during the first six months of the pandemic. Tweets were analyzed using sentiment analysis, thematic content analysis and KRCC. The findings highlight that many Canadians attempted to adapt to the changes but had a predominantly negative outlook on policies due to the financial and social repercussions

Hospital readmission and length of stay prediction provide info to manage hospitals’ bed capacity and the number of required staff, especially during pandemics. We present a hybrid deep model called Genetic Algorithm-Optimized Convolutional Neural Network (GAOCNN) with a unique preprocessing method to predict hospital readmission and the length of stay in patients having various conditions. GAOCNN uses one-dimensional convolutional layers to predict hospital readmission and length of stay. The parameters of the layers are optimized using a genetic algorithm. To show the performance of the proposed model in patients with various conditions, we evaluate the model under three healthcare datasets; the Diabetes 130-US hospitals dataset, the COVID-19 dataset, and the MIMIC-III dataset. The diabetes 130-US hospitals dataset has information on both readmission and the length of stay, while COVID-19 and MIMIC-III datasets just include information on the length of stay. Experimental results show that the proposed model’s accuracy for hospital readmission is 97.2% for diabetic patients. Also, the accuracy of the length of stay prediction is 89%, 99.4%, and 94.1% for diabetic, COVID-19, and ICU patients, respectively. These results confirm the superiority of the proposed model compared to existing methods. Our findings offer a platform for managing healthcare funds and resources for patients with various diseases.

The current COVID19 pandemic has raised huge concerns for outdoor air quality due to expected lungs deterioration. These concerns include the challenges in the scalable prediction of harmful gases like carbon dioxide, iterative/repetitive inhaling due to mask and environmental temperature harshness. Even in the presence of air quality sensing devices, these challenges lead to failed planning and strategy against respiratory diseases, epidemics, and pandemics in severe cases. In this work, a dual time-series with bi-cluster sensor data-stream-based novel optimized regression algorithm was proposed with optimization predictors and optimization responses that use automated iterative optimization of the model based on the similarity coefficient index. The algorithm was implemented over SeReNoV2 sensor nodes data, i.e. multi-variate dual time-series of environmental and US Environmental Protection Agency standard sensor variables for air quality index measured from air quality sensors with geospatial profiling. The SeReNoV2 systems were placed at four locations that were 3 km apart to monitor air quality and their data was collected at Ubidots IoT platform over GSM. Results have shown that the proposed technique achieved a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.0042 with a training time of 469.28 seconds for normal and RMSE of 1.646 in the training time of 28.53 seconds for optimization. The estimated R-Squared error of 0.03 with Mean-Square Error for temperature 1.0084 ᵒC and 293.98 ppm for CO2 was observed. Furthermore, the Mean-Absolute Error (MAE) for temperature 0.66226 ᵒC and 10.252 ppm for CO2 at a prediction speed of ~5100 observations/second for temperature 45000 observations/second for CO2 due to iterative optimization of the training time 469.28 seconds for temperature and 28.53 seconds for CO2 was very promising in forecasting COVID19 countermeasures before time.

The dynamical equations of the susceptible-infected-recovered/removed (SIR) epidemics model play an important role to predict and/or analyze the temporal evolution of epidemics outbreaks. Crucial input quantities are the time-dependent infection ($a(t)$) and recovery ($\mu (t)$) rates regulating the transitions between the compartments $S\to I$ and $I\to R$, respectively. Accurate analytical approximations for the temporal dependence of the rate of new infections $\dot{J}(t)=a(t)S(t)I(t)$ and the corresponding cumulative fraction of new infections $J(t)=J(t_0)+\int_{t_0}^tdx\dot{J}(x)$ are available in the literature for either stationary infection and recovery rates and for a stationary value of the ratio $k(t)=\mu (t)/a(t)$. Here a new and original accurate analytical approximation is derived for general, arbitrary and different temporal dependencies of the infection and recovery rates which is valid for not too late times after the start of the infection when the cumulative fraction $J(t)\ll 1$ is much less than unity. The comparison of the analytical approximation with the exact numerical solution of the SIR-equations for different illustrative examples proves the accuracy of the analytical approach.

The perceived risk of being infected at work (PRIW) with COVID-19 represents a potential risk factor for workers during the current COVID-19 pandemic. In line with the job demands-resources (JD-R) model applied to safety at work, in this longitudinal study we propose that PRIW can be conceptualized as a job demand, whereas communication (i.e., the exchange of good-quality information across team members) can be conceived as a job resource. Accordingly, we hypothesized that PRIW at Time 1 (T1) would positively predict psychophysical strain at Time 2 (i.e., four months later). Furthermore, we hypothesized that communication at T1 would negatively predict psychophysical strain at T2. Overall, 297 workers took part in the study. The hypothesized relationships were tested using multiple regression analysis. Results supported our predictions: PRIW positively predicted psychophysical strain over time, whereas communication negatively predicted psychophysical strain over time. Also, results did not change after controlling for age, gender, and type of contract. Overall, this study suggests that PRIW and communication can be considered as a risk and a protective factor for work-related stress, respectively. Hence, to promote more sustainable working conditions, interventions should encourage organizations to optimize the balance between job demands and job resources related to COVID-19.

Systemic capillary leak syndrome (SCLS) is an uncommon, potentially life-threatening disorder defined as recurrent attacks of pseudo-shock. This syndrome occurs due to the disruption of endothelial cells, which leads to increased vascular permeability, causing intravascular fluid to leak into the extravascular space and albumin to be retained in the interstitial space. SCLS can lead to hypovolemia, peripheral hypoperfusion, and acute renal insufficiency. The syndrome is presented with fever, generalized edema, pleural effusions, dyspnea, hypovolemia, hemoconcentration, prerenal azotemia, shock, and syncope. After ruling out other causes of hypovolemic shock, the diagnosis of SCLS can be considered on the presence of the classical triad of hypotension, hemoconcentration, and hypoalbuminemia. Eliminating the precipitating factors is the cornerstone of SCLS management. It is advisable to be very cautious and weigh the risks and benefits of vaccination of people with a history of this condition. This review will discuss and compare different aspects of SLCS after SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination.

The GFPMX projects forest area and stock, consumption, production, imports, exports, and prices of industrial roundwood, fuelwood, sawnwood, wood-based panels, wood-pulp, and paper and paperboard, in 180 countries, and currently from 2018 to 2070. The core principle of the model is the Cobweb theorem, according to which markets are not necessarily in equilibrium, but take some time to adjust to shocks, such as demand shifts, leading to oscillatory dynamics of prices and quantities. The paper presents the model structure and the estimation of its parameters from international statistics on production, trade, forest area, and forest stock. This is followed by an application of the GFPMX to the impact on the global forest sector of the economic recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant of concern has been the dominant cause of worldwide COVID-19 cases since 2022. All the Omicron sublineage viruses have demonstrated high transmissibility and an ability to escape vaccine-induced immunity. While first-generation vaccines, including monovalent vaccines, continue to provide protection against severe disease, hospitalization and mortality, their efficacy against Omicron sub variants remains sparse. These vaccines have also been associated with rapidly waning protection against primary COVID-19 and COVID-19 reinfections conferred by evolving Omicron sublineages.. This led to the development and deployment of updated vaccines and the introduction of the bivalent booster. Through this review, we highlight the brief journey of the variants of concern leading to the dominance of Omicron and the effectiveness of the key vaccines against these variants, including the updated (bivalent) boosters.

Objective: We aim to assess the reporting discrepancy and the difference between confirmed and unreported COVID-19-like death counts.Study Design: The study is based on time-series data.Methods: We used publicly available data to explore the differences between confirmed death counts and deaths with Codiv-19 symptoms between March 8, 2020, and July 11, 2020, in Bangladesh.Results: During the week ending May 9, 2020, the unreported COVID-19-like death count was higher than the confirmed COVID-19 death count; however, it was lower in the following weeks. On average, unreported COVID-19-like death counts were similar to the confirmed COVID-19 death counts during the same period. However, the reporting authority neither considers these deaths nor adjusts for potential seasonal influenza or other related deaths, which might produce incomplete COVID-19 data and respective mortality rates. Conclusions: Documenting unreported deaths with COVID-19 symptoms needs to be included in provisional death counts because it is essential to estimate a robust COVID-19 mortality rate and to offer data-driven pandemic response strategies. An urgent initiative is needed to prepare an acceptable guideline for COVID-19 death reporting.

During the pandemic, nurses experienced anger that stemmed from a sense of threat, frustration or even a sense of injustice. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between vaccination hesitancy, anger, cynicism and medical mistrust among nurses, as there are no relevant studies in the literature. The study was conducted online by completing self-report questionnaires. The Dimensions of Anger Reactions-5, the 8-item "Cynical Distrust" scale and the Medical Mistrust Multiformat Scale were used. For vaccination hesitancy, two questions with a 5-point scale were used; one question examining hesitancy to get vaccinated with the COVID-19 vaccine, and another question examining hesitancy to get vaccinated with the influenza vaccine. 387 nurses (66 men and 321 women) participated in the study. Nurses showed statistically greater hesitancy for the COVID-19 vaccine compared to hesitancy for the influenza vaccine. The variation in Vaccine Hesitancy was explained by the scores in the Medical Mistrust Multiformat Scale, the Dimensions of Anger Reactions and the Cynical Distrust Scale. The Medical Mistrust Multiformat Scale mediated the relationship between Cynical Distrust Scale and Total Vaccine Hesitancy. The Dimensions of Anger Reactions Scale significantly moderated the indirect effect of Cynical Distrust Scale on Total Vaccine Hesitancy through the Medical Mistrust Multiformat Scale. In conclusion, it is highly likely that anger is involved in reported vaccine hesitancy both by activating schemas of distrust in others and by adopting antisystemic views of mistrust in the medical system.

Exacerbated inflammatory responses are a hallmark of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Zileuton (Zi) is a selective inhibitor of 5-lipoxygenase, an enzyme involved in the production of several inflammatory/pro-resolving lipid mediators. Herein, we investigated the effect of Zi treatment in a severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) model. Mouse hepatitis virus (MHV)3-infected mice treated with Zi significantly improved the clinical score, weight loss, cardiopulmonary function, and survival rates compared with infected untreated animals. The protection observed in Zi-treated mice was associated with a lower inflammatory score, reduced dendritic cell-producing tumor necrosis factor (TNF), and increased neutrophil-producing interleukin (IL)-10 in the lungs 3 days after infection (dpi). At 5 dpi, the lungs of treated mice showed an increase in Th2-, Treg CD4+-, and Treg CD8+-producing IL-10 and reduced Th1 infiltrating cells. Furthermore, similar results were found upon Zi treatment after SARS-CoV2 infection in transgenic mice expressing the human angiotensin I-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor driven by the cytokeratin-18 (K18) gene promoter (K18-hACE2), significantly improving the clinical score, weight loss, and lung inflammatory score compared with untreated animals. Our data suggest that Zi protects against developing severe lung disease during SARS induced by betacoronavirus without affecting the host’s capacity to deal with infection.

The coronavirus disease pandemic 2019 (COVID-19) has emerged in Wuhan province, China in December 2019 and has spread over all countries. The current study was carried out to predict active, death and cured rate of COVID 19 in Algeria for a future period of 35 days using FB prophet model. Results shoed that the active rate and the death rate decrease for the next days while the cured rate increase. The active, cured and death rates are estimated at 19.7% 78.85% and 2.55% respectively. These results highlight the importance of FB prophet model in COVID-19 prediction which could help national authorities in adopting the best preventive measures.

Background: This study aimed to examine the course of Depression and anxiety in COVID-19 survivors with a psychiatric history compared with those without a psychiatric history. Methods: A web-based cross-sectional survey for COVID-19 survivors was conducted from July to September 2021. 6016 COVID-19 survivors, the accuracy of whose responses was determined to be assured, were included in analyses. Exposures included psychiatric history and time since COVID-19 infection, and the main outcomes and measures included severity of depression and anxiety, as assessed using the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) and Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7 (GAD-7), respectively. Results: Mean severity of PHQ-9 and GAD-7 were significantly higher in participants with a psychiatric history than in those without a psychiatric history. Two-way analysis of covariance for PHQ-9 showed a significant main effect of the presence of psychiatric history and a significant interaction effect of psychiatric history × time since infection. Two-way analysis of covariance for the GAD-7 score revealed a significant main effect of the presence of psychiatric history and time since COVID-19 infection and the interaction effect of these factors. Conclusions: The course of depression and anxiety was more severe in COVID-19 survivors with a psychiatric history than in those without a psychiatric history.

The natural history of COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2 is extremely variable, ranging from asymptomatic infection, to pneumonia, and to complications eventually fatal. We propose here the first model, explaining how the outcome of first, crucial 10-15 days after infection, hangs on the balance between the cumulative dose of viral exposure and the efficacy of the local innate immune response (natural IgA and IgM antibodies, MBL). If SARS-CoV-2 runs the blockade of this innate immunity and spreads from the upper airways to the alveoli in the early phases of the infections, it can replicate with no local resistance, causing pneumonia and releasing high amounts of antigens. The delayed and strong adaptive immune response (high affinity IgM and IgG antibodies) that follows, causes severe inflammation and triggers mediator cascades (complement, coagulation, and cytokine storm) leading to complications often requiring intensive therapy and being, in some patients, fatal. Strenuous exercise and high flow air in the incubation days and early stages of COVID-19, facilitates direct penetration of the virus to the lower airways and the alveoli, without impacting on the airway’s mucosae covered by neutralizing antibodies. This allows the virus to bypass the efficient immune barrier of the upper airways mucosa in young and healthy athletes. In conclusion, whether the virus or the adaptative immune response reach the lungs first, is a crucial factor deciding the fate of the patient. This “quantitative and time-sequence dependent” model has several implications for prevention, diagnosis, and therapy of COVID-19.

A compartmental epidemiological model with seven groups is introduced herein, to account for the dissemination of diseases similar to the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In its simplified version, the model contains ten parameters, four of which relate to characteristics of the virus, whereas another four are transition probabilities between the groups; the last two parameters enable the empirical modelling of the effective transmissibility, associated in this study with the cumulative number of fatalities due to the disease within each country. The application of the model to the fatality data (the main input herein) of five countries (to be specific, of those which had suffered most fatalities by April 30, 2020) enabled the extraction of an estimate for the basic reproduction number $R_0$ for the COVID-19 disease: $R_0=4.91(33)$.

With data for SARS-CoV-2 and with many countries entering the second wave of contagion required the improvement of the forecasting model, structuring its model to forecast the peak of the first and second contagion wave in Brazil. The Model Estimation for SARS-CoV-2 Peak Contagion (MESPC) was structured, capable of estimating the peak of contagion for SARS-CoV-2 in the first and second waves, as the main objective of this work. Using the MESPC model, it was possible to estimate, with a certain reliability degree, the peak of contagion for the first and second waves in Brazil, with one day difference from the real to the forecast. It is possible to use MESPC to forecast the peak of contagion for several regions, provided that the necessary structure and calibration are respected.

The COVID-19 pandemic has exerted a significant impact on mental health globally. The uncertainty, fear, and stress associated with this crisis have contributed to a heightened prevalence of anxiety, depression, and various other mental health disorders. In this scenario, the present study aimed at investigating the relationship between locomotion regulatory mode, resilience, and COVID-19 anxiety. It is worth noting that previous extensive research has established a significant correlation between high levels of locomotion and diverse positive psychological conditions, such as optimism, reduced hopelessness, and positive affect. A total of 243 participants completed measures of locomotion regulatory mode, resilience, and COVID-19 anxiety. In line with our hypotheses, individuals' locomotion regulatory mode was negatively, although non significatively, associated with COVID-19 anxiety. Furthermore, resilience was found to mediate the relationship between locomotion regulatory mode and COVID-19 anxiety, indicating that individuals displaying high locomotion may be better equipped to cope with the stress and uncertainty of the COVID-19 pandemic due to their greater levels of resilience. Taken together, these findings highlight the importance of considering both locomotion and resilience in managing anxiety related to COVID-19 and suggest that interventions aimed at enhancing resilience may be beneficial particularly for individuals with low locomotion regulatory mode.

ACE2 impact on the severity of COVID-19 is widely discussed but still controversial. To estimate its role in aspects of the main risk factors and comorbidities, we involved post-COVID-19 patients in Ternopil region (Ukraine). Recruitment period was July 2020 to December 2021. Medical records, treatment modalities and outcomes were recorded and analyzed. Serum human ACE2 protein was measured with Cusabio ELISA kits (Houston, TX, USA). Statistical analysis was performed with SPSS21.0 software (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA). The level of ACE2 serum protein was significantly higher (p < 0.001) in patients with mild symptoms compared to more severe course of disease, and inversely had changed from 1 to 90 days after recovery. In patients with mild COVID-19, ACE2 level significantly decreased over time, while among critical patients, it increased by 34.1percent. Such results could be explained by ACE2 shedding from tissues into circulation. Loss of the membrane-bound form of the enzyme decreases the virus entry into cells. Our studies did not identify any sex-related ACE2 serum levels correlation. The most common comorbidities were hypertension, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and diabetes mellitus. All comorbidities except respiratory diseases contribute to the severity of disease and correlate with ACE2 blood serum level.

Background: Early-stage interventions in a potential pandemic are important tounderstand as they can make the difference between runaway exponential growththat is hard to turn back and stopping the spread before it gets that far. COVID-19 is an interesting case study because there have been very different outcomesin different localities. These variations are best studied after the fact if precisionis the goal; while a pandemic is still unfolding less precise analysis is of value inattempting to guide localities in the early stages to learn lessons of those that pre-ceded them. Methods: I examine three factors that could differentiate strategy: asymptomaticspread, differences in use of the Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) tuberculosis vac-cine and cloth face masks.Results:Differences in disease progression as well as the possibility of alternativestrategies to prevent COVID-19 from entering the runaway phase or damping itdown later can be elucidated by a study of asymptomatic infection. A study todemonstrate not only what fraction are asymptomatic but how contagious they arewill also inform policy on universal mask wearing. Conclusions: While a COVID-19 outbreak is at a level that makes accurate trace-and test possible, investigation of asymptomatic transmission is viable and shouldbe attempted to enhance understanding of spread and variability in the disease aswell as policy options for slowing the spread.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) utilizes Angiotensin Converting Enzyme 2 (ACE2) as its main receptor for cell entry. We have bioengineered a soluble ACE2 protein termed ACE2 618-DDC-ABD that has increased binding to SARS-CoV-2 and prolonged duration of action. Here we investigated the protective effect of this protein when administered intranasally to k18-hACE2 mice infected with the aggressive SARS-CoV-2 delta variant. k18-hACE2 mice were infected with the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant by inoculation of a lethal dose (2x104 PFU) and followed for up to 14 days. ACE2-618-DDC-ABD (10mg/kg) or PBS was administered intranasally six hours prior and 24 and 48 hours post viral inoculation. All animals in the PBS-control group had succumbed to the disease on day 7 post infection (0% survival) whereas, by contrast, there was only one casualty in the group that received ACE2-618-DDC-ABD (90% survival). Mice in the ACE2-618-DDC-ABD group had minimal disease as assessed by a clinical score and stable weight and both brain and lung viral titers were markedly reduced. These findings demonstrate the efficacy of a bioengineered soluble ACE2 decoy with extended duration of action in protecting against the aggressive delta SARS-CoV-2 variant. Together with previous work these findings demonstrate the universal protective potential against current and future emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants.

This study mainly explores the effect of policy formalism, equipment insufficiency, covid-19 fear and job insecurity on construction workers’ insomnia during the epidemic. The main contribution of this article is to introduce policy formalism into the exploration of the causes of insomnia among construction site workers during the epidemic. This study collected 733 valid samples of construction site workers. We tested the established hypotheses using confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modeling. The research results found that equipment insufficiency positively affects Covid-19 fear. Policy formalism and Covid-19 fear positively affect job burnout. Social support negatively affects job burnout. Job burnout and job insecurity positively affect insomnia.

Background Recently, a surge of COVID 19 was observed globally, regionally and nationally. With increasing numbers of cases, the frequency of long COVID is on the rise. Management and control of long COVID depend on changes in respect of human behaviors and requires an understanding of knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) regarding health threats. MethodsA descriptive cross sectional study using online survey to gather data on the socio-economic background, knowledge, attitudes and practices on long-term complications of COVID. Results: Out of 201 respondents, 89.2% participants have heard about long-term complications of COVID 19. Only 35.9% have demonstrated adequate knowledge in the questions relating to co-morbidities and risk factors of COVID-19. A total of 92.2% believe that they should adhere to preventive measures following vaccination. Less than 60 % were following the advice on avoiding unnecessary travel and crowded places. Further, less than 50% were following COVID preventive measures. ConclusionAlthough the majority of participants have heard about long-term complications and common symptoms, the knowledge regarding co-morbidities that can lead to severe disease and long COVID was not satisfactory. The attitudes of the participants indicated increasing concern about long COVID. Practices indicate lack of adherence to key measures such as avoiding crowded places. These findings highlight the need for further increasing of awareness.

Background: Myometrial invasion (MI) is a parameter currently used in transvaginal ultrasound (TVS) in endometrial cancer (EC) to determine local staging, however, without molecular diagnostics, it is insufficient for selection of high-risk cases, i.e., those with a high risk of lymph node metastases (LNM). Methods: One hundred sixteen consecutive EC patients, who had received 2D transvaginal ultrasound examinations in their preoperative workup and final histopathology results as a reference standard, were included in this prospective study. Univariate and multivariate logistic models of analyzed TVS biomarkers (tumor [T] size, T area [AREA], T volume [SPE-VOL], MI, T-free distance to serosa [TFD], endo-myometrial irregularity, [EMIR], cervical stromal involvement, CSI) were evaluated to assess the relative accuracy of the possible LNM predictors. To avoid a potential bias in assuming linear relations between LNM and continuous predictors, spline functions were applied. Calculations were made in R with the use of libraries splines, glmulti, and pROC. Results: LNM was found in 20 out of 116 (17%) patients. In univariate analysis, only uMI, EMIR, uCSI and uTFD were significant predictors of LNM. Accuracy was 0.707 (AUC 0.684, 95% CI 0.568-0.801) for uMI (p<0.01), 0.672 (AUC 0.664, 95% CI 0.547-0.781) for EMIR (p<0.01), 0.776 (AUC 0.647, 95% CI 0.529-0.765) for uCSI (p<0.01), and 0.638 (AUC 0.683, 95% CI 0.563-0.803) for uTFD (p<0.05). The cut-off value for uTFD was 5.2 mm. However, AREA and VOL revealed significant relation by non-linear analysis as well. Among all possible multivariate models, the one comprising interactions of splines of uTFD with uMI and splines of SPE-VOL with uCSI showed most usefulness. Accuracy was 0.802 (AUC 0.791, 95% CI 0.673-0.91) Conclusions: A combination of uTFD for patients with uMI>50%, and SPE-VOL for patients with uCSI, allows for the most accurate prediction of LNM in EC, rather than uMI alone.

Introduction: Despite more than one year passed since the first cases of SARS-CoV-2 were reported, there is still no consensus on the definition and clinical management of post-acute-COVID-19. The condition has heterogeneously been named as Chronic COVID syndrome, Post COVID-19 Syndrome, post-acute sequela of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC), and the more familiar long COVID. Method: In order to capture all relevant published studies, we undertook a multi-step search with no language restriction. The following four-step search strategy was utilized: First, a preliminary (limited) search was conducted on January 20, 2021, in Google Scholar and PubMed to identify the appropriate keywords. Then, on January 30, 2021, we adopted a search strategy of electronic databases from Cochrane Library, PsycINFO, PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Web of sciences, using those keywords. Then, after duplicate removal, we screened all titles, abstracts, and full texts. This resulted in 66 eligible studies. Subsequently, after a forward and backward search of their references and citations an additional 54 publications were found, resulting in a total of 120 publications that formed the basis of the present analysis. The titles, abstracts, and full-texts of non-English articles were translated using Google Translate for further evaluation. We conducted our scoping review based on the PRISMA-ScR Checklist.Results: We found only one randomized clinical trial in our search. Of the 67 original studies, 22 were cohort and 28 were cross-sectional studies totaling 74.6% of the original studies. Of the total of 120 publications, 59 (49.1%) focused on signs and symptoms, 28 (23.3%) were focused on management, and 13 (10.8%) focused on pathophysiology. Ten (9%) publications focused on imaging studies. Ninety-one percent of the original investigations came from high and upper-middle-income countries, highlighting the scarcity of reports originating from low-income and lower-middle-income countries.Conclusion: The predominant symptoms among those with the so-called “Long COVID” were: fatigue, breathlessness, arthralgia, sleep difficulties, and chest pain. Recent reports also point to the risk of long-term sequela with cutaneous, respiratory, cardiovascular, musculoskeletal, mental health, neurologic, and renal involvement in those who survive the acute phase of the illness. The ambiguity and controversies in its definition have impaired proper recognition and management of those requiring additional support following the resolution of the acute phase of this infection. This has resulted in long-standing distress for the patients and their families. Our findings highlight the need for a multidisciplinary approach, support, and rehabilitation for these patients in terms of long-term mental and physical health.

Today, we are all threatened by an unprecedented pandemic: COVID-19. How different is it from other coronaviruses? Will it be attenuated or become more virulent? Which animals may be its original host? In this study, we analyzed 377 publicly available complete genome sequences for the COVID-19 virus, the previously known flu-causing coronaviruses (HCov-229E, HCov-OC43, HCov-NL63 and HCov-HKU1) and the lethal, pathogenic P3/P4 viruses, SARS, MERS, Victoria, Lassa, Yamagata, Ebola, and Dengue. We found strong similarities between the current circulating COVID-19 and SARS and MERS, as well as COVID-19 in rhinolophines and pangolins. On the contrary, COVID-19 shares little similarity with the flu-causing coronaviruses and the other P3/P4 viruses. Strikingly, we observed divergence of COVID-19 strains isolated from human hosts has steadily increased from December 2019 to March 2020, suggesting COVID-19 is actively evolving in human hosts. From all existing human COVID-19 genome sequences, we calculated the first common model that represents the shared sequences of the human COVID-19 strains, which provides important information for vaccine and antibody development. Geographic and time-course analysis of the evolutionary trees of the human COVID-19 reveals possibly heterogeneous evolutional paths among strains from 21 countries. This finding has important implications to the management of COVID-19 and the development of vaccines.

Understanding the clinical conditions and outcomes of Covid-19 infected patients with immunodeficiency like HIV will be an information for improving management and treatment modalities. It was reported a patient of HIV plus clinical confirmed Covid-19 in this presentation.

During an epidemic outbreak it is useful for planners and responsible authorities to be able to plan ahead to estimate when an outbreak of an epidemic is likely to ease and when the last case can be predicted in their area of responsibility. Theoretically this could be done for a point source epidemic using epidemic curve forecasting. The extensive data now coming out of China makes it possible to test if this can be done using MS Excel a standard spreadsheet program available to most offices. The available data is divided up for whole China and the different provinces. This and the high number of cases makes the analysis possible. Data for new confirmed infections for Hubei, Hubei outside Wuhan, China excluding Hubei as well as Zhejiang and Fujian provinces all follow a log-normal distribution that can be used to make a rough estimate for the date of the last new confirmed cases in respective areas. In the version 2 continuation work, 9 additional days were added for the Chinese data to evaluate the previous predictions. The extra data then available from China follows the previous predicted trend supporting the usefulness of this simple technique. In the version 2 we also tested the feasibility for a non-specialist to make similar predictions using additional data from S Korea now available. In this third continuation the predictions for Version 2 are evaluated for S Korea and fits well the beginning of the decline but it seems to be difficult to bring down numbers of cases per day under about 100 new cases per day, potential reasons for this is discussed. To further evaluate when in a prediction becomes reliable the Chinese data was used to evaluate to make predictions for each day around the peak in number of cases and after2-3 consecutive days of decreasing new cases per day the prediction becomes reliable. In version 3 data for Italy just reaching this point was used to make further predictions for that country. A second new analysis was also added to use the fitted equation to detect when the acceleration of new cases per day stopped increasing exponentially. In the Chinese case this measured point coincides with the date of the complete Hubei lockdown and in the new Italian analysis it coincides with the mandatory Italian lockdown. Predicted dates for the end of the Italian outbreak is also added. In version 4 we expand the analysis to selected European countries, USA and the World as a whole and try to predict the end of the outbreak. We further discuss the apparent success of the used techniques that might work to introduce a “new normal” not very different to the previous to stop secondary outbreaks of COVID19 and future COVIDs that are sure to come.

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has raised numerous questions concerning the shape and range of state interventions whose goals are to reduce the number of infections and deaths. The lockdowns, which have become the most popular response worldwide, are assessed as being an outdated and economically inefficient way to fight the disease. However, in the absence of efficient cures and vaccines, there is a lack of viable alternatives. In this paper we assess the economic consequences of the epidemic prevention and control schemes that were introduced in order to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. The analyses report the results of epidemic simulations that were obtained using the agent-based modelling methods under the different response schemes and their use in order to provide conditional forecasts of the standard economic variables. The forecasts were obtained using the DSGE model with the labour market component.

Long COVID–19 syndrome is another vicious feature of COVID-19 infection, the mechanism remains unidentified. Several observational studies suggest that vaccinations might have protective and therapeutic effect on long COVID-19 and our study aimed to assess the influence of vaccination on COVID-19 patients. We performed an observational cohort study from October 2020 to July 2022, which included 503 patients (291 males and 212 females) with a median age of 65. They were hospitalized due to COVID-19 pneumonia and had persistent symptoms (after 1 month of COVID-19 infection. The clinical and demographic data including vaccination status collected during hospitalization and regular visits at the Community Healthcare Center dr. Adolf Drolc Maribor were analyzed. More non-vaccinated patients acquired long COVID-19 than vaccinated. Patients with type 2 diabetes suffered from long COVID-19 in a smaller percentage than patients without diabetes. Gender, inhalational therapy due to chronic pulmonary disease and the number of complications have significantly influenced long COVID-19 development and the mostly vaccinated patients were older and with asthma/COPD. Our study confirmed that vaccination is a safe and effective measure to prevent the severe progression of acute disease and to lower the incidence of developing long COVID.

COVID-19 generated a scenario for global health with multiple systemic impairments. This retrospective study evaluated the clinical, radiological, and pulmonary functional evolution in 302 post-COVID-19 patients. Regarding post-COVID-19 pulmonary symptoms, dry cough, dyspnea, and chest pain were the most frequent. Of the associated comorbidities, asthma was more frequent (23.5%). Chest Tomography (CT) initially showed a mean pulmonary involvement of 69.7%, and the evaluation in the subsequent months showed an improvement in the evolutionary image, and with less than six months post-pathology, there was a commitment of 37 .7%, from six to twelve months, 20% and after 12 months, 9.9%. And as for most of the sample, 50.3% of the patients presented CT normalization in less than six months after infection, 23% normalized between six and twelve months, and 5.2% normalized the images after twelve months, with one remaining. Percentage of 17.3% who maintained post-COVID-19 pulmonary residual sequelae. Regarding spirometry, in less than six months after the pathology, 59.3% of the patients already showed a regular exam; 12.3% normalized their function within six to twelve months, and 6.3% concluded a normal exam after twelve months of post-pathology evaluation. Only 3.6% of the patients still showed some alteration in this period.

In this case study, we describe a well-resourced private school system that implemented COVID-19 mitigation measures based on public health expert guidance as well as the lessons learned from this process. Avenues is a 10-year-old private school with campuses in NYC, São Paulo, Shenzhen, Silicon Valley, as well as online, which offers education at sixteen grades: 2 early learning years, followed by a pre-kindergarten–grade 12 school. We describe the mitigation measures Avenues implemented. We compare COVID-19 case prevalence at the school to the reported case prevalence in New York City, as reported by the New York State Department of Health. We compare the school's indoor air quality (IAQ) to ambient IAQ measures reported in the literature. The school's COVID-19 transmission mitigation measures successfully reduced the prevalence of COVID-19 among its students, staff, and faculty. The school also established a consistent high level of IAQ through various ventilation mechanisms. The school received positive parent and community feedback on the policies and procedures it established, with many parents commenting on the high level of communication and trust established by the school. This successful school reopening provides useful data for school closure and reopening standards to prepare for future pandemic and epidemic events.

The COVID-19 pandemics has had an unprecedented global impact, and the COVID-19 mass vaccination campaign has been commonly regarded as crucial to overcome the pandemics. Since all-cause mortality is the best way to measure the consequences of a health intervention, the present study was devised to analyze the all-cause mortality data of the United Kingdom (UK), which are made publicly available broken down by vaccination status. Data from January to May 2022 were retrospectively collected and analyzed according to age groups and vaccination status and the relative risk (RR) for all-cause mortality was calculated in comparison to the corresponding unvaccinated groups. All-cause mortality RR was also calculated from January to May 2021 for vaccinated people. Results show that the all-cause mortality RR was higher in people who received one or two doses of COVID-19 vaccines throughout the whole period and in any of the age groups considered. People vaccinated with three doses more than 21 days earlier had RRs lower than unvaccinated people, which however linearly increased over time. RR in vaccinated people of all ages in comparison to unvaccinated people were lower in January-May 2021, however they steadily grew over time. The finding that all-cause mortality RR in vaccinated in comparison to unvaccinated people increases over time requires careful examination to understand the underlying factors. Meanwhile, all the other major countries should undertake a systematic collection of all-causes mortality broken down by vaccination status, and mass vaccination campaigns should be suspended.

Purpose: The healthcare pressure and emotional tension during the first year of the COVID 19 pandemic have been able to affect the health of healthcare personnel. Physical and psychological symptoms attributed to a work situation and or COVID 19 infection are describ ed in health professionals. Objective: to analyze the prevalence of physical and psychological symptoms directly or indirectly related to COVID 19 (occupational causes, illness or persistent COVID 19) after a 12 month pandemic. Methods: #COVID19PS is a cro ss sectional analytical study using an ad hoc questionnaire distributed through social media to record physical and psychological symptoms related to COVID 19 in health professionals. Variables: age, sex, geographical origin, profession, characteristics of the work environment, physical symptoms, Maslach test ( for health professionals. Univariate and bivariate statistical analysis using t distribution, Chi square, ANOVA using IBM SPSS v20®. Results: N=1.159 ( women, 21.8% men; 44.6% <35 years old, 23.9% between 35 45years); 96.5% Spaniards. Professions: 17.1% medicine, 12.7% nursing, 32% physiotherapy, 24.1% occupational therapy, 14.1% others; 47.5% belonged to direct care for COVID 19 patients. 28.2% had passed the disease and 3.7% had it acti ve. 61.6% had physical symptoms ( neurological, 31.7% musculoskeletal, 29.6% general, 20.9% gastrointestinal, 20.3% skin, 19.2% cardiovascular, 16% respiratory (p= 96.9% had a medium high Burnout index (p= 48.3% with high levels of Emot ional Exhaustion, 62.9% with medium high level of Depersonalization and 74% with medium low levels of Personal Accomplishment. Conclusion: all health professions present high rates of physical and burnout consequences of the first year of COVID 19 pandemic.

On 11th March 2020, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 as a pandemic. Vaccination programs have advanced greatly in the global health period, despite widespread anti-vaccination attitudes and misinformation. Vaccine hesitancy of COVID-19 vaccine is currently a major issue in Saudi Arabia. This cross-sectional study was carried out from June 25, 2021 to October 2021 in order to investigate the knowledge levels of acceptance and hesitancy of COVID-19 vaccine among Saudi’s nationals. The data was collected through a close-ended structured questionnaire from a total of 565 respondents. Overall, 78.41% respondents were female, 62.48% having university level education and 61.06% were unemployed. Majority of the participants 82.30% (n=465) think that Pfizer vaccine has the highest efficiency against COVID-19. Our study concludes that majority of the participants have satisfactory knowledge about COVID-19 vaccination. Concerns over vaccine components, effectiveness of vaccine and possible side effects are among the key causes for vaccine hesitancy.

CoVID-19 is a multi-symptomatic disease which has made a global impact due to its ability to spread rapidly, and its relatively high mortality rate. Beyond the heroic efforts to develop vaccines, which we will not discuss, the response of scientists and clinicians to this complex problem has reflected the need to detect CoVID-19 rapidly, to diagnose patients likely to show adverse symptoms, and to treat severe and critical CoVID-19. Here we aim to encapsulate these varied and sometimes conflicting approaches and the resulting data in terms of chemistry and biology. In the process we highlight emerging concepts, and potential future applications that may arise out of this immense effort.

Objective: SARS-Cov-2 infection or COVID-19 is a global pandemic. From the time of identification to till, multiple clinical symptoms and parameters have been identified by the researchers of various countries and regions regarding the diagnosis and presentations of COVID-19 disease. In this manuscript, we investigated the primary symptoms and basic hematological presentations of SARS-CoV-2 infection among the Bangladeshi patients. Methodology: We have collected the disease history of mild to moderate degree of COVID-19 patients; hematological and biochemical on admission reports of moderate degree COVID-19 patients. All of them were tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR in different institutes in Bangladesh. Results: According to this study though COVID-19 patients in Bangladesh commonly presented with fever, cough, fatigue, shortness of breath, and sore throat, but symptoms like myalgia, diarrhea, skin rash, headache, Abdominal pain/cramp, nausea, vomiting, restlessness, and a higher temperature of >100⁰F have a greater presentation rate and more frequent than other published studies. CRP and Prothrombin time was found to increase in all the patients. Serum ferritin, ESR, SGPT, and D-Dimer were found increased among 53.85%, 80.43, 44%, and 25% patients respectively. 17.39% of the patients had leukocytosis and neutrophilia. 28.26% of patients presented with lymphocytopenia. 62.52% of patients had mild erythrocytopenia. Conclusion: Despite some similarities, our study has evaluated a different expression in presenting symptoms in the case of COVID-19 patients in Bangladesh. CRP, Prothrombin time, serum ferritin, ESR, SGPT, D-Dimer, erythrocytopenia, and lymphocytopenia can be initial diagnostic hematological findings and assessment for prognosis COVID-19 disease. Also, gender variations have a different scenario of clinical and laboratory appearance in this region.

Background: COVID-19 pandemic has pulled us all a few steps back, were we never shake hands or hug each other when we meet our friends and family after a gap, but instead we greet them by saying Namaste and joining our hands together. As we all know, COVID-19 spreads through air and the only way to shield ourselves is by maintaining a safe distance from one another. Methodology: In order to conduct a meta-analysis on the number of COVID-19 cases in Kerala and India, the data was retrieved from various sites hosted by the government bodies. The data for analysis was collected from May 2020 to July 2020. The average number of days required to reach every 5000 fresh cases were also calculated using this data. COVID-19 has affected all the economy holistically regardless of financial, behavioral, or societal aspects. Conclusion: Lifting of the lockdown in a step by step process keeping in mind the necessities for the nation was a thoughtful act, but the people who mistook this opportunity and did not remain in quarantine after coming from abroad was recognized as the reasons behind the sudden and uncontrolled rise in the number of COVID-19 cases in Kerala, India. The government authorities had no other option but to lift the restrictions to reduce the economic burdens that had already affected the daily wage worker and farmers prompting them to give up their lives.

In the aftermath of the COVID pandemic, post-COVID-19 syndrome (PCS) remains a challenge and may continue to represent a major health problem in the future. Moreover, the influence of type 2 diabetes and being overweight on PCS remains unclear. This study aimed to assess this influence. We performed an observational study from October 2020 to July 2022, which included 466 patients (269 males and 197 females) with a median age of 65. They were hospitalized due to COVID-19 pneumonia and had persistent symptoms after 1 month of COVID-19 infection. The patients were divided into four groups according to the study objectives: patients with type 2 diabetes, overweight patients, overweight patients with type 2 diabetes, and normal-weight patients without type 2 diabetes. The clinical and demographic data collected during hospitalization and regular visits at the Community Healthcare Center dr. Adolf Drolc Maribor were analyzed. Our results showed that type 2 diabetes patients had a more difficult course of treatment and longer hospitalization. Moreover, more type 2 diabetes patients underwent rehabilitation than the other study groups. The prevailing symptoms in our patients with PCS were dyspnea and fatigue, mostly in female patients with type 2 diabetes. Our study also showed that more women with type 2 diabetes and more overweight women with type 2 diabetes suffered from secondary infections. Further, more overweight patients were treated in the intensive care unit compared to the other groups. However, our study showed an interesting result that patients with type 2 diabetes had the shortest PCS durations. Type 2 diabetes and being overweight are risk factors for PCS onset and prolonged duration. Therefore, our data that revealed a shorter duration of PCS in type 2 diabetes patients compared to the other investigated groups was unexpected. We believe that answering this question regarding the results will enable us to improve PCS treatment in general.

The aim of this study was to estimate the association between fear of COVID-19 and risk perception with preventive behavior in health professionals from three Latin American countries. An analytical cross-sectional study was conducted. Health professionals with on-site care in Colombia, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Peru were surveyed. Information was collected through an online self-report questionnaire. The main variables were preventive behavior as the dependent variable and fear of COVID-19 and risk perception as independent variables. Linear regression was used, and Beta coefficients and p-values were calculated. 435 health professionals were included, the majority were aged 42 years or older (45.29%, 95%CI: 40.65%-50.01%) and female (67.82%, 95%CI: 63.27%-72.05%). It was shown that the greater the fear of COVID-19, the greater the preventive behavior of COVID-19 infection (B=2.21, p=0.002 for total behavior; B=1.12, p=0.037 for additional protection at work; B=1.11, p<0.010 for hand washing). The risk perception of COVID-19 infection had a slight direct relationship with preventive behaviors (B=0.28, p=0.021 for total behavior; B=0.13, p=0.015 for hand washing), with the exception of the preventive behavior of using additional protection at work (p=0.339). We found that fear and risk perception are associated with increased practice of hand washing and use of additional protection at work. Further studies are required on the influence of working conditions, job performance and the occurrence of mental health problems in frontline personnel with regard to COVID-19.

Background: The uptake of COVID-19 booster vaccines has been significantly low. Therefore, it is questionable whether combining the COVID-19 booster vaccines with Influenza vaccines can increase the population's interest in taking such vaccines and manage the health pandemic effectively. Methodology: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, a synthesis of the findings and summary of a total of 30 research articles based on the topic, ‘combining influenza and COVID-19 booster vaccination strategy’ was undertaken. The research articles were identified from three databases, namely, PubMed, Cochran Library, and Google Scholar using specific keywords and inclusion criteria. However, research articles that were not peer-reviewed and not published in English were excluded from the systematic review and meta-analysis. The average risk ratio of the included articles was 0.78% based on a 95% CI. On the other hand, the heterogeneity between such studies was I² = 35%, while the statistical significance of their findings occurred at p < 0.05. The average p-value of the included research studies was p = 0.62, implying that the null hypothesis was not rejected in almost all the studies. Results: A synthesis of the chosen research articles revealed that when influenza and COVID-19 booster vaccines are combined, there is potential for an increase in the uptake of the latter, mainly because many populations have already been accustomed to taking influenza vaccines on an annual basis. Conclusions: In this way, through such findings, medical health experts can make informed decisions to increase the population's willingness to receive the COVID-19 booster vaccines.

Given the concerns of waning immunity from the primary COVID-19 vaccines and the first booster dose, we conducted an on-line cross-sectional study in May 2022 to investigate willingness to receive a second COVID-19 booster dose or a new COVID-19 vaccine and its associated factors. Overall, 22.7% of participants were willing to be vaccinated, 39.3% were unsure, but tend to be willing, 25.8% were unsure, 4.9% were unsure, but tend to be unwilling, and 7.4% were unwilling to be vaccinated. The main reasons against accepting a second COVID‐19 booster dose or a new COVID-19 vaccine COVID-19 dose included concerns about the side effects, the opinion that further vaccination is unnecessary, and effectiveness uncertainties. Males, younger individuals, participants without a previous COVID-19 diagnosis, and those with good/very good self-perceived physical health were significantly more frequently willing to receive a second COVID‐19 booster dose or a new COVID-19 vaccine. Also, increased fear of the COVID-19, increased trust in COVID-19 vaccination and decreased fear of a second booster dose or a new COVID-19 vaccine were associated with increased willingness. Our results show some hesitancy and unwillingness toward further COVID-19 vaccination and indicate that fear of COVID-19 and trust in COVID-19 vaccination affect public opinion

The world is currently, subjected to the worst health crisis documented in modern history; an epidemic led by the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). At the epicenter of this crisis, healthcare professionals continue working to safeguard our well-being. To the regular high levels of stress, COVID new heights even more to healthcare professionals so depending on the area, specialty, and type of work. Here we investigated what are the tendencies, or areas most affected. Through an adaptation of the original COVID-stress scale, we developed a remote, fast test designed for healthcare professionals of the Northeastern part of Mexico, an important part of the country with economic and cultural ties to the US. Our results showed 4 key correlations as highly dependent: Work area – Xenophobia (p &lt; 0.045), Work with COVID patients - Traumatic stress (p &lt; 0.001) and Total number of COVID patients per day – Traumatic stress (p &lt; 0.027), and Total number of COVID patients - Compulsive checking and reassurance. Overall concluding that normal levels of stress have increased (mild – moderate). Additionally, we further determine that the fear of being an asymptomatic patient (potential to spread without knowing) continues being a concern.

This tutorial is organized into three major sections—viruses, vaccines and the race for a Covid-19 vaccine. The goal is to provide enough background on viruses, history of vaccines, and the science of vaccinology founded on the principles of immunity. The hope is that this will enable us to understand the challenges, methods and prospects for developing a safe and effective vaccine against SARS-CoV-2. Many important viruses such as smallpox, HIV, HCV and SARS-CoV-2 which is responsible for causing the Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) are presented in detail, which is then followed by a description of different vaccine development methods and strategies. The tutorial then discusses different candidate SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and provides specific details of many of the prospective vaccines on the leader-board which are undergoing clinical trials. The tutorial concludes with a realistic projection for a safe and effective vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 based on the historical scientific record.

Currently, there is no specific treatment for COVID-19 proven by clinical trials. WHO and CDC guidelines therefore endorse supportive care only. However, frontline clinicians have been applying several virus-based and host-based therapeutics in order to combat SARS-CoV-2. Medications from COVID-19 case reports, observational studies and the COVID-19 Treatment Guideline issued by the China's National Health Commission (7^th edition published March 3^rd, 2020. Edited translation attached) are evaluated in this review. Key evidence from relevant in vitro researches, animal models and clinical studies in SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV are examined. Antiviral therapies remdesivir, lopinavir/ritonavir and umifenovir, if considered, could be initiated before the peak of viral replication for optimal outcomes. Ribavirin may be beneficial as an add-on therapy and is ineffective as a monotherapy. Corticosteroids use should be limited without indicating comorbidities. IVIG is not recommended due to lack of data in COVID-19. Xuebijing may benefit patients with complications of bacterial pneumonia or sepsis. The efficacy of interferon is unclear due to conflicting outcomes in SARS and MERS studies. Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine have shown in vitro inhibition of SARS-CoV-2 and may be beneficial as both prophylactic and treatment therapy. For patients who developed cytokine release syndrome, interleukin-6 inhibitors may be beneficial. Given the rapid disease spread and increasing mortality, active treatment with readily available medications may be considered timely prior to disease progression.

A vast majority of the countries is under the economic and health crises due to the current epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The present study analyzes the COVID-19 using time series, which is an essential gizmo for knowing the enlargement of infection and its changing behavior, especially the trending model. We have considered an autoregressive model with a non-linear time trend component that approximately converted into the linear trend using the spline function. The spline function split the COVID-19 series into different piecewise segments between respective knots and fitted the linear time trend. First, we obtain the number of knots with its locations in the COVID-19 series and then the estimation of the best-fitted model parameters are determined under Bayesian setup. The results advocate that the proposed model/methodology is a useful procedure to convert the non-linear time trend into a linear pattern of newly coronavirus case for various countries in the pandemic situation of COVID-19.

U.S. Spanish-speaking populations experienced gaps in timely COVID-19 information during the pandemic and disproportionate misinformation exposure. Brigada Digital de Salud was established to address these gaps with culturally-tailored, Spanish-language COVID-19 information on social media. From May 1, 2021-April 30, 2023, 495 Twitter, 275 Facebook, and 254 Instagram posts were published and amplified by 10 trained community health workers. A qualitative content analysis was performed to characterize topics and formats of 251 posts. To assess reach and engagement, page analytics and advertising metrics for 287 posts were examined. Posts predominantly addressed vaccination (49.45%), infection risks (19.12%), and COVID-related scientific concepts (12.84%). Posts were educational (48.14%), and aimed to engage audiences (23.67%), promote resources (12.76%), and debunk misinformation (9.04%). Formats included images/text (55.40%), carousels (27.50%), and videos (17.10%). By June 9, 2023, 394 Facebook, 419 Instagram, and 228 Twitter followers included mostly women aged 24-54. Brigada Digital reached 386,910 people with 552,037 impressions and 96,868 engagements, including 11,292 likes, 15,240 comments/replies, 9,718 shares/retweets, and 45,381 video play-throughs. The most engaging posts included videos, trending topics, and music or audio-narration. This community-based model to engage Spanish-speaking audiences on social media with culturally-aligned content to counter misinformation shows promise for addressing public health threats.

Fractional differential mathematical model unfolding the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in India is presented and explored in this paper. The purpose of this study is to estimate the future outbreak of disease and potential control strategies using mathematical models in India as a whole country as well as in some of the states of the country. This model is calibrated based on reported cases of infections over the month of April 2020 in India. We have used iterative fractional complex transform method to find approximate solutions of the model having modified Riemann Liouville fractional differential operator. We have also carried out a comparative analysis between actual and estimated cumulative cases graphically, moreover, most sensitive parameters for basic reproduction number$(R_0)$ are computed and their effect on transmission dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic is investigated in detail.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a substantial revolution in the incorporation of digital solutions in healthcare. This systematic review investigates the enduring physical and psychological consequences individuals experience up to two years post-recovery. Additionally, it focuses on examining the influence of mHealth interventions on these effects. Significantly, 41.7% of survivors experience lingering symptoms that have not been addressed, while 14.1% encounter difficulties in returning to work. The presence of anxiety, compromised respiratory functioning, and persistent symptoms highlight the immediate requirement for specific therapies. Telehealth, particularly telerehabilitation, presents itself as a possible way to address these difficulties. The study thoroughly examines 10 studies encompassing 749 COVID-19 patients, investigating the efficacy of telerehabilitation therapies in addressing various health markers. Telerehabilitation-based breathing exercises yield substantial enhancements in functional performance, dyspnea, and overall well-being. The results emphasize the potential of telerehabilitation to have a favorable effect on patient outcomes, however more research is needed to strengthen the existing evidence basis as one of the most important limitation is the limited number of trials and the evaluation of varied therapies. The analysis highlights the significance of digital solutions in post-COVID care and calls for ongoing research to improve comprehension and implementation of telehealth interventions in a swiftly changing healthcare environment.

The increasing number of people living with Long COVID requires the development of more personalized care, as for now limited treatment options and rehabilitation programs adapted to the variety of Long COVID presentations are available. Our objective was to design an easy-to-use Long COVID classification to help stratifying people with Long COVID. Individual characteristics and a detailed set of 62 self-reported persisting symptoms together with quality of life indexes 12 months after initial COVID-19 infection were collected in a cohort of SARS-CoV-2 infected people in Luxembourg. A hierarchical ascendant classification (HAC) was used to identify clusters of people. We identified 3 patterns of Long COVID symptoms with a gradient in disease severity. Cluster-Mild encompassed almost 50% of the study population and was composed of participants with less severe initial infection, fewer comorbidities, and fewer persisting symptoms (mean=2.9). Cluster-Moderate was characterized by a mean of 11 persisting symptoms and a poor sleep and respiratory quality of life. Cluster-Severe was characterized by a higher proportion of women and smokers as in the other clusters, with a higher number of Long COVID symptoms, in particular of vascular, urinary, and skin symptoms. Our study evidenced that Long COVID can be stratified in 3 sub-categories in terms of severity. If replicated in other populations, this simple classification will help clinicians to personalize the care of people with Long COVID.

Background: COVID-19 is currently one of the most important medical challenges as it affects the entire population with children being infected as easily as adults. Objective: The study evaluated the mortality of under 17-year-olds and compare the frequency with that of adults in a cohort of 8986 COVID-19 positive patients hospitalized in a single care center. Design: retrospective clinical trial, all hospitalizations of COVID-19 positive patients as diagnosed by RT-qPCR were analyzed by revisiting their medical records. Setting: 8986 COVID-19 positive patients hospitalized in a Hospital de Base and the Infant and Maternal Hospital of São Jose do Rio Preto, SP, Brazil (HB/HCM) being these totals of 383 COVID-19 positive under 17-patients. Patients: patients COVID-19 positive under 17-year-olds were grouped by age and evaluated by analyzing their medical records. They were categorized as Group I, children, and adolescents under 19 years old and Group II, adults over 19 years. Results: Overall mortality in under 19-year-olds was 12 deaths, that is, 3.13% of the patients in this age group and 0.55% of the overall mortality from COVID-19. Mortality in the group of adults was 2197 equivalent to 24.45% of the hospitalized adults and 99.45% of overall deaths. Mortality was significantly higher for adults than for under 19-year olds (p-value < 0.0001). Regarding the different ages of children and adolescents, the number of deaths of under 1-year olds was 2/123 (1.62%), of 1-4 years it was 4/95 (2.11%), of 5-9 years it was 1/47 (2.13%), of 10-14 years it was 1/40 (2.5%) and of 15-19 years it was 4/78 (5.13%). There were no statistical differences between the different age groups ( p-value = 0.3). Conclusion: Mortality from COVID-19 in children and adolescents was lower than in adults and generally associated with other comorbidities with the main association being with heart disease.

Socio-demographic factors are responsible of health inequalities also in vaccination. The aim of this study was to evaluate their role at population level through a population-based study performed on the whole population entitled to receive COVID-19 vaccines in Umbria Region, Italy, and registered to the Regional Healthcare Service as of February 28th, 2021. Socio-demographic characteristics and vaccination status in terms of uptake at least one dose of any available vaccine, completion of the primary vaccination cycle and uptake of the booster doses as of February 28th, 2022 were col-lected from the Umbria regional database. The percentage of eligible population who did not initiate the COVID-19 vaccination, complete the full vaccination cycle and get the booster dose was 11.8%, 1.2% and 21.5% respectively. A younger age, being a not-Italian citizen, and not holding an ex-emption for chronic disease/disability and a GP/FP were associated to all the endpoints. Females, as compared to males, were more likely to not initiate the vaccination but less likely to not receive the booster dose. On the contrary, results on the deprivation index were not conclusive. The findings, beyond confirming current knowledge at population level, provide new inputs for better tailoring vaccination campaigns.

In this study, we use descriptive statistics and data visualization techniques to analyze datasets and identify patterns and relationships between bikeshare and other transportation modes. We also use regression analysis to quantify the impact of various factors on bikeshare usage. Our results indicate that bikeshare trips during the pandemic were much longer compared to pre-pandemic times. Moreover, usage of bikeshare differed by user group, with casual users showing a greater increase in usage compared to subscribers. We plotted bivariate choropleth maps to visualize the spatial distribution of changes in bikeshare usage. Our findings suggest that an increase in bikeshare travel was associated with a reduction in travel by ride-hailing and public transit, especially in the northern part of the city, indicating a potential replacement of other modes of transportation. On the western and southern boundary of the city, bikeshare had a complementary effect with other modes. Overall, the data acquired for this study provides a valuable opportunity to understand the behavior of bikeshare users in Chicago, the intercorrelation of bikeshare with other transportation modes, and the impact of infrastructure on bikeshare usage. The findings of this study can inform the design and implementation of bikeshare systems in other cities and contribute to the development of a more sustainable transportation system.

Fighting against the COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus is one of the most critical challenges facing the global health system today. The possibility to identify the group of persons in the cohort of people under 50 years old, who are sensitive to the COVID-disease by non-invasive methods, is a very perspective approach for estimating the epidemiological state of the human population. The study aimed to identify the features of people's faces with COVID-19 that the most correlate with disease severity could serve as one of these approaches. For this aim, 525 photos of patients' faces with different outcomes of COVID-19 disease were analyzed using the Dlib face recognition convolutional neural network pre-trained for face recognition. Face descriptor vectors were obtained using the convolutional neural network. Facial features were found that predict a person's sensitivity to the SARS-CoV-2 virus (disease severity), and the contribution of each of the features to the risk of developing a severe form of COVID in a person was found. The accuracy of the binary classification of the individual severity of the COVID-19 course using the k-nearest neighbors algorithm on the test dataset was accuracy - 84%, AUC - 0.90.

The most severe threat that the Covid-19 pandemic poses to the global economy is the need to choose between human lives and livelihoods. Bangladesh must assess the implications of such impacts on Bangladesh's macro-financial scenario to maintain the economy's current high growth trajectory. The paper outlines the major Covid-19 shock wave transmission channels to the four major sectors of the Bangladesh economy. Authorities around the world have taken every precaution possible to halt the spread of the pandemic. An aggregate transmission framework that includes these four sectors is required to contain the impact of Covid-19 can propagate through these sectors and eventually impact macro-financial stability.

Resilience is an adaptive coping mechanism needed by health workers, especially nurses who have longer working hours than other health workers to provide care to patients in the era of the Covid-19 pandemic which is a global health problem. The aim of this literature review is to identify the resilience of nurses during the covid-19 pandemic the 21 st century global nursing paradigm. This language method uses literature reviews which are summaries of 10 articles in the publication years of 2020-2021 on search 4 databased electronic searches contain namely Scopus, ProQuest, Pubmed, and Scient Direct. This review used prisms. The eligibility of these studies were from its title, abstract, research methodology, results and discussion. The results of the review were presented in narrative form. The results of a review of 10 articles found that the form of psychological factors during the covid-19 pandemic, mental distress and influencing factors in nurses caring for patients with COVID-19, resilience nurses during the covid-19 pandemic. Conclusion: The 21 st century global nursing paradigm, one of the global problems in the health sector, with the outbreak of the corona virus disease (Covid-19), the role of nurses as the front guard is needed by the community to provide health services in line with the increasing incidence of covid-19 cases. Strong nurses need an adaptive inner coping mechanism.

Introduction: Corona Virus Disease 2019 causes health problems in the world in the form of a health crisis that results in psychological problems as fear and anxiety. The purpose of this study to determine the factors that influence psychological and stigma during the Covid-19 pandemic.Methods: This study is a literature review with five databases (Scopus, CINAHL, ScienceDirect, PubMed, and ProQuest), studies design used a cross-sectional or quasi-experimental, with a date of March 2021. The Center for Review and Dissemination and the JBI Guide are used to measure the Quality and Prism checklist for guide reviews. A feasibility study based on title, abstract, full text, and research methodology. The data analysis used narrative analysis based on the research findings.Results: Eleven articles met the predefined review inclusion criteria. Research is base on related factors psychology, related factors stigma, and factors related to psychological and stigma. Most of the factors associated with psychological conditions and stigma have a quasi-experimental and cross-sectional design. Participants averaged over a thousand for each study and discussed psychology factors related to the stigma. Conclusion: Factors related to psychological are age, education, symptoms and health conditions, gender, information, economy, exposure duration, and social support, while factors related to stigma are environment, history of comorbid diseases, discrimination, and public perceptions.

In critically ill patients with COVID-19, concomitant abnormalities of coagulation have been seen with an unusually high incidence. Standard coagulation tests are limited in their ability accurately to reflect the severity of the pro-thrombotic phenotype observed in severe COVID-19 infections. In this narrative review we consider the role of rotational thromboelastometry (ROTEM) as a near bedside test allowing a more comprehensive assessment of haemostatic function in the context of COVID-19 infection. Comprehensive literature search was conducted on PubMed, revealing 13 publications on the subject. The coagulopathy of this disease process appears to be insufficiently represented with often normal conventional coagulation test parameters. Whilst not the perfect substitute for in vivo coagulation, studies utilising rotational thromboelastometry assays in COVID-19 patients have demonstrated increased maximum clot firmness (consistent with hyper-coagulability) and reduced maximum lysis (consistent with “fibrinolytic shutdown”). ROTEM appears to be a possible tool for risk stratification and to monitor the potential modulation of fibrinogen-dependent coagulation processes with enhanced anti-coagulation strategies. Precisely how these coagulation abnormalities can be modified by optimum, individualised medical interventions to improve clinical outcome, however, remains unclear.

The Saudi government has undertaken rapid and swift actions, such as suspending Omrah and holding international flights. Such affirmative actions enhanced citizens and residents’ confidence in the government officials’ ability to fight the pandemic. However, there are more than 361,178 reported cases of Covid-19 with 6131 deaths as of December 22, 202. As nurses are the largest component of the health care workforce in Saudi Arabia, it is important that they are trained and have the skills and resources to adapt, whether on the frontline of a crisis or in a clinical environment. Nurses play a key function in fulfilling the needs of medical treatment by being the most important part of the health care delivery system.

Culture, gender and religion are closely linked each other’s, profoundly affect the role of each person within the Society, and also affect the ability to access to the health resources. We are now living a worldwide crisis due to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. In order to appropriately tackle it, an alliance between science, politics and citizens is needed. In this article, we summarize current evidences of how religions can represent, on one hand, a risk moment for spreading the virus (in relation with overcrowded events), on the other, a precious opportunity to engage people, and in particular minorities, in fighting the pandemic. To win this fight, we need a multicultural approach that takes into account every aspect of human life, and among these religion, which influences so much culture, everyday life and well-being.

Severe COVID-19 disease is characterised by an exaggerated inflammatory response, called cytokine storm, accompanied by a condition of immune depression. Even sepsis is characterised by an exaggerated inflammatory response, called SIRS (Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome), accompanied by a condition of immune depression called CARS (compensatory anti-inflammatory response syndrome). Clinical studies reveal that most sepsis patients who did not die during the hyper inflammatory response (SIRS) subsequently succumbed to the condition of immune depression (CARS). Severe acute pancreatitis begins with local inflammation that induces systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), accompanied and followed by a compensatory anti-inflammatory response (CARS). In COVID-19 disease, the male response to SARS CoV-2 virus is typically characterised by a robust inflammatory response. Instead, a cell-mediated immune response is dominant in women. This means that the male sex tends to have a more robust hyper inflammatory response than the female one. Furthermore, in women the condition of immune depression is less represented, therefore they are more protected. Sepsis, severe acute pancreatitis and COVID-19 disease evolve between two fundamental aspects: hyper inflammation and immunodepression. The experience gained over years of studies of sepsis and severe acute pancreatitis suggests that therapies should be differentiated according to the evolutionary stage of the disease. The goal is to save the lives of most patients with COVID-19 disease. The identification of critical points, suitable for designing the windows of therapeutic opportunity, may allow the use of therapeutic interventions, in the COVID-19 disease, which are effective (there are no approved drugs yet), safe (without significant side effects), targeted (based on the evolutionary phase of the disease) personalized, (based on sex, co-morbidities, age, etc.) and timely (based on signs, symptoms, laboratory parameters and instrumental investigations).