Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Understanding the Spread of COVID-19 in Japan: Preliminary Results from a System Dynamics Model

Version 1 : Received: 29 May 2020 / Approved: 31 May 2020 / Online: 31 May 2020 (19:58:23 CEST)

How to cite: Uehara, T. Understanding the Spread of COVID-19 in Japan: Preliminary Results from a System Dynamics Model. Preprints 2020, 2020050499 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202005.0499.v1). Uehara, T. Understanding the Spread of COVID-19 in Japan: Preliminary Results from a System Dynamics Model. Preprints 2020, 2020050499 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202005.0499.v1).

Abstract

This study developed a system dynamics model to understand the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Japan. The model is built on the generic SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, and Recovered) framework adopted by Ghaffarzadegan and Rahmandad (2020) to build a system dynamics model for the spread of COVID-19 in Iran. Japan seems to be successful in containing the spread compared with other countries, and its first peak has passed. However, because this also leaves a large population still susceptible to the virus, it could cause a second and potentially higher peak of infection after the state of emergency aimed at reducing contact rate is lifted. As the government has proposed the “New Lifestyle,” it is critical to behave cautiously so as not to be infected. While the model focuses on the SEIR structure, the reflection of other sub-structures such as economy and hospital capacity that have tradeoffs with reducing contact rate should be beneficial. However, before extending the model, it is also critical to conduct estimates using confidence intervals rather than point estimates to better reflect uncertainties.

Subject Areas

COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; System dynamics; Japan; SEIR

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