Working Paper Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

To Freeze or Not to Freeze? Epidemic Prevention and Control in the DSGE Model Using an Agent-Based Epidemic Component

Version 1 : Received: 17 November 2020 / Approved: 18 November 2020 / Online: 18 November 2020 (11:30:24 CET)

How to cite: Kaszowska, J.; Włodarczyk, P. To Freeze or Not to Freeze? Epidemic Prevention and Control in the DSGE Model Using an Agent-Based Epidemic Component. Preprints 2020, 2020110472 Kaszowska, J.; Włodarczyk, P. To Freeze or Not to Freeze? Epidemic Prevention and Control in the DSGE Model Using an Agent-Based Epidemic Component. Preprints 2020, 2020110472

Abstract

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has raised numerous questions concerning the shape and range of state interventions whose goals are to reduce the number of infections and deaths. The lockdowns, which have become the most popular response worldwide, are assessed as being an outdated and economically inefficient way to fight the disease. However, in the absence of efficient cures and vaccines, there is a lack of viable alternatives. In this paper we assess the economic consequences of the epidemic prevention and control schemes that were introduced in order to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. The analyses report the results of epidemic simulations that were obtained using the agent-based modelling methods under the different response schemes and their use in order to provide conditional forecasts of the standard economic variables. The forecasts were obtained using the DSGE model with the labour market component.

Subject Areas

COVID-19; agent-based modelling; dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models; scenario analyses

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