Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Mathematical Modeling of the Development of Confirmed Daily Infection Numbers in the COVID-19 Pandemic by a Special Exponential Function

Version 1 : Received: 19 November 2020 / Approved: 20 November 2020 / Online: 20 November 2020 (09:37:07 CET)

How to cite: Keller, E.; Keller, J.; Selg, M. Mathematical Modeling of the Development of Confirmed Daily Infection Numbers in the COVID-19 Pandemic by a Special Exponential Function. Preprints 2020, 2020110531 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202011.0531.v1). Keller, E.; Keller, J.; Selg, M. Mathematical Modeling of the Development of Confirmed Daily Infection Numbers in the COVID-19 Pandemic by a Special Exponential Function. Preprints 2020, 2020110531 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202011.0531.v1).

Abstract

The developments of confirmed daily Sars-CoV-2 infections can be modeled a posteriori in a comparatively simple and satisfactory way by means of a special exponential function: its exponential coefficient varies exponentially with time itself. This property enables the function to directly simulate the „daily case“ curve fragments observed for the first waves of the current epidemics in a number of counties and countries. Linear combinations of two or more of the functions allow for the modeling of the complete curves observed in the vast majority of all regions for which case number developments have been tabulated.

Subject Areas

COVID-19 pandemic; Sars-CoV-2; confirmed daily infections; mathematical model

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